“Ardennes Week” is in full swing. The peloton took on the Cauberg this past weekend, which can only mean it’s time for the Mur de Huy this Wednesday…
The Route
La Flèche Wallonne is surprisingly short, particularly this year, at just 196 kilometers.
There are officially 12 climbs on the menu, starting at kilometer 67 and running all the way to the finish. The first 11 will serve to wear away at the legs of the peloton, particularly the 1.3km, 8.1% Côte de Cherave, but this race is almost always decided on the final climb, the Mur de Huy.
A winding 1.3km at 9.3%, the Mur is a brutal challenge that punishes those who don’t time their jump perfectly. Experience matters on the steep slopes of the climb, which maxes out at over 25% for one small section. Things do flatten out near the finish line, meaning that the pure climbers will want to go a little earlier than those with a bit of a sprint.
The Contenders
Alejandro Valverde makes the start in pursuit of a record fourth career win at La Flèche Wallonne, and he looks like a strong candidate to pull it off. For one, the race and the final climb in particular suit him perfectly. These sorts of climbs have been Valverde’s bread and butter for years. He looks strong this season too. Meanwhile, some of the other names that come to mind for this race have yet to really show off any stellar form, making Valverde that much stronger a race favorite. Movistar also has Daniel Moreno, a former winner himself, as another card to play, and Carlos Betancur could be up there as well.
Joaquím Rodríguez probably should have won this race more than just the once, but he’s always a dangerous contender on this sort of finishing climb. It’s hard to say what kind of shape he’s in, but he’ll almost certainly be in the mix.
Form is a question mark after he pulled out of País Vasco, but rarely is Dan Martin not in shape to contest this event, one of his favorites. He has always done well here. Etixx-QuickStep also has Julian Alaphilippe, runner-up just last year. If anyone can challenge Movistar’s top-to-bottom strength, it’s the Irish-French duo leading the Belgian supersquad.
Speaking of former runners-up, don’t overlook Sergio Henao. He has been flying all season and should be able to fight with the very best on the Mur. Sky has a nice support squad to put him into position, and he has an underrated kick on this sort of finish.
Michael Albasini of Orica-GreenEdge is always one to watch at La Flèche Wallonne—he’s never won, but he’s almost always in the mix. Lotto-Soudal has several options with Tim Wellens, Tony Gallopin, and Jelle Vanendert. Look to one of the three (probably Wellens) to try something long-range. Philippe Gilbert looked out of shape at Amstel and is probably beyond the point of being considered a favorite here, but he did win the race once upon a time and so can’t be counted out. BMC teammate Samuel Sánchez may be more of a threat.
Amstel Gold Race winner Enrico Gasparotto, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Michael Woods, Rui Costa, Diego Ulissi, Warren Barguil, Wilco Kelderman, and Roman Kreuziger are others to watch.
VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites
Winner: Alejandro Valverde Podium: Sergio Henao, Joaquím Rodríguez Other Top Contenders: Dan Martin, Julian Alaphilippe, Michael Albasini, Daniel Moreno, Rui Costa, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Tim Wellens
Episode 39: Amstel Gold Race + La Flèche Wallonne 2016 Pre-race Show
“Ardennes Week” kicks off Sunday at the Amstel Gold Race, and continues with La Flèche Wallonne Wednesday. The podcast covers both races with a double-header pre-race show.
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The Recon Ride dives into two races this week: Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano take a closer look at the Amstel Gold Race and La Flèche Wallonne, and the punchy riders who are likely to feature as protagonists on the short steep climbs of Dutch Limburg and the Belgian Ardennes.
Quite a collection talented riders is headed to Tirreno-Adriatico this week to hunt for results – and the race’s famed golden trident trophy – along the road from one side of Italy to the other. A balanced parcours offers something for everyone in the country’s first big stage race of the year.
The Route
Tirreno-Adriatico opens with a 22.7-kilometer team time trial. It’s long enough to make a difference, giving an advantage to the GC hopefuls with high-octane backing squads, but it’s not so long that it’s going to flat-out win someone the race on day one.
Stage 2 throws a few challenges at the riders at the end of a 207km day. There is a small categorized climb just before the finish that may open up a few gaps.
Stage 3 is a day for the sprinters. Stage 4 concludes with a flat stretch but a string of late climbs could inspire attacks, either from stagehunters or from aggressive GC types.
Stage 5 is the definitive queen stage, with five categorized climbs including a tough uphill finish of 13km at 6.6%.
Stage 6, the longest stage in the race, has some uncategorized ascents late on in the profile that could favor the more versatile riders in the peloton, but it’s hard to see it having any GC impact.
The race closes out with a 10km individual time trial in San Benedetto del Tronto. It’s a completely flat out-and-back run that should see some pretty high speeds.
The General Classification Contenders
Nairo Quintana won the 2015 edition of the race, but he won’t be defending his crown in 2016. However, with Alejandro Valverde leading the way, Movistar still has a great chance of coming away with a win. The Spaniard can do it all, and that’s a big plus on this varied parcours. Movistar’s great TTT will help.
Vincenzo Nibali makes the start in pursuit of a third career Tirreno title, and he too should appreciate the parcours. The queen stage involves plenty of descendning, which should allow the Italian to put his downhill abilities on display. Jakob Fuglsang gives Astana a strong Plan B.
Tejay van Garderen would probably have a hard time drawing up a more favorable parcours. BMC’s world-class TTT squad should set him up well from the get go, and the long queen stage finishing climb and stage 7 time trial will both give him a chance to put his own big engine on display. He looked strong in Andalucía last month and should be among the top favorites in Italy.
Rigoberto Urán will also like the style of climbs in this race and the closing TT, though the opening team time trial may hurt him given Cannondale’s struggle in the discipline. If he can limit his losses there, he’ll have a shot at the overall.
Joaquím Rodríguez should appreciate the plethora of opportunities to punch clear of the pack even if the chrono mileage doesn’t suit him. He has yet to deliver much this season but it’s not unusual for him to show up stronger than expected after a few quiet weeks riding tune-up races. Jurgen Van Den Broeck could be a nice alternative.
Bauke Mollema was runner-up in Tirreno in 2015 and looks to be in good form at the moment. He could be among the GC favorites trying to snipe a few seconds here and there on the intermediate stages.
Thibaut Pinot won’t be a fan of the opening TTT but he’s improved dramatically as a descender and so should be able to hold his own on the queen stag. He’s also capable of putting in a decent ITT, making him a real contender for the overall title.
Ag2r’s one-two punch of Domenico Pozzovivo and Jean-Christophe Peraud should be in the mix, as should Orica-GreenEdge’s duo of Adam Yates and Esteban Chaves. Sky brings a powerhouse trio of Michal Kwiatkowski, Vasil Kiryienka, and Wout Poels.
Diego Ulissi, Roman Kreuziger, Rafael Valls, and Rodolfo Torres are other potential protagonists in the General Classification.
The Stagehunters
Mark Cavendish looks like the fastest of the pure sprinters in attendance, although there are several big names that could challenge him in the bunch kicks. Caleb Ewan,Fernando Gaviria, Elia Viviani, Giacomo Nizzolo, and Sacha Modolo are the headliners there.
Peter Sagan should have a few opportunities of his own as well, as there are some lumpier days. Greg Van Avermaet could be in the mix as well—he actually beat Sagan in a sprint to take a stage here in 2015. Edvald Boasson Hagen, Ramunas Navardauskas, and Jens Debusschere are others worth keeping an eye on in the stagehunting game.
VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Favorites
Winner: Vincenzo Nibali Podium: Alejandro Valverde, Tejay van Garderen Other Top Contenders: Rigoberto Urán, Joaquím Rodríguez, Domenico Pozzovivo, Thibaut Pinot, Bauke Mollema, Michal Kwiatkowski, Wout Poels
The podcast takes a closer look at the third WorldTour race of the season, Italy’s Tirreno-Adriatico.
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Though some big names are in France for Paris-Nice, plenty of other stars are headed to Italy to kick off their European WorldTour campaigns at Tirreno-Adriatico. The Recon Ride previews the race route and the favorites, and chats with Sam Bennett, who will make the start hoping to nab a stage win in the sprints.
Il Lombardia, the final race of the 2015 WorldTour, kicks of Sunday in Bergamo, Italy. 245 kilometers of up and down in Italy’s Lombardy region, Il Lombardia (formerly known as the Giro di Lombardia) is the last of the five Monument Classics on the cycling calendar. The organizers have tinkered with the profile over the course of the last few years, but a unique Northern Italian character, incredible lakeside scenery, and thrilling finishes are constant features in Il Lombardia, making it a great event to close out the season in style.
Be sure to check out the latest Recon Ride powered by VeloNews, with special insight from cycling expert and Lombardy local Gregor Brown, for more on what makes Il Lombardia stand out as a legendary bike race.
The Route
Il Lombardia gets progressively harder as the day goes on. After leaving Bergamo, the peloton will enjoy nearly 50km of flat before the road angles upward for the Colle Gallo, 7.4km at 6%. After a descent it’s another mostly flat stretch for nearly 50km once again before the long, low-gradient Colle Brianza. Another downhill leads to another flat stretch before things get a bit lumpier in the run-up to a very difficult pairing of climbs: the Madonna del Ghisallo and the Colma di Sormano.
The challenging profile of Il Lombardia makes it an excellent opportunity for the climbing specialists to take a big one-day win.
Ghisallo is an irregular climb whose average gradient doesn’t really tell the whole story. All told it’s 8.6km at an average grade of 6.2%, but it’s really a three-part climb, starting out with about 3.5km at around 9%, flattening out (even running downhill for a bit) for 4km or so, and then kicking up again at nearly 10% for the rest of the way to the top. Unfortunately for the riders, there won’t be much of a chance to rest after the climb is crested—a fast descent leads into the foot of the brutal Colma di Sormano (with a particularly challenging stretch known as the Muro di Sormano).
The climb opens with a little over 5km at 6.6%. Then things suddenly get extremely difficult. The final 1.9km have an average gradient of 15.8%, with one stretch at over 25%, which will undoubtedly see many riders dropped off the back. At least the view is nice.
As hard as the Ghisallo-Sormano combo is, the race is far from over after the pack crests the latter, as there are still about 50 kilometers left to race. From the top of the Sormano it’s a tricky descent into a flat section of about 15km, where we can expect things to get very cagey as riders jockey for position for the finale.
With a little over 21km to go the riders will hit the foot of the Civiglio, 4.2km at a vicious 9.7%. It’s consistently steep the whole way up. Then comes a very steep descent that runs into the foot of the final climb of the race, the San Fermo della Battaglia, 2.7km at 7.2%. Expect plenty of action here if the race isn’t blown to pieces already. Once the riders go over the summit, it’s a little over 3km downhill and then just 1.5km of flat to the finish line in Como.
The Contenders
This year’s route strongly favors the explosive climbing stars. A fast finish will be useful in case a small group comes to the line together, but the finale will make it very hard for riders to sit in and hold out for a big sprint. The pack will be thinned out after so much climbing, and a pair of steep launching pads in the last 20km will provide the aggressive riders with plenty of space to go on the move. Some technical descents will further favor the attackers. Those descents could get even more technical with a chance of some rain on Sunday—rain is as much a classic feature of Il Lombardia as the scenery along Lake Como, and it figures to at least play a part this year.
Alejandro Valverde’s combination of elite climbing legs, strong descending skills, Classics grit, and an excellent sprint make him an obvious entrant in the favorites conversation. Although he’s never won the race, he has been the runner-up for two years in a row now. 5th in the World Championship Road Race, he’s still in-shape even at the end of a very long season, and this is a race he’s been trying to win for a little while now. Giovanni Visconti makes for an strong second. For me, the big question mark next to Valverde’s name is whether he will be aggressive enough to take the victory—I don’t think he can take his usual approach (staying in the wheels for a reduced sprint) into this race and expect to win, with a finale so well-tailored to a do-or-die attack.
One rider who probably won’t hesitate to launch an all-or-nothing strike is Vincenzo Nibali. It’s been a down year for Nibali, and he’s never managed to take the big one-day victory he has long sought (other than Plouay back in 2006), but he’s in great form right now and this course suits him perfectly. Nibali is not a good sprinter, meaning that he’ll need to drop everyone and win this thing solo, but the gradients on the final climbs and the tricky descents that follow should give him plenty of chances to do that. Fabio Aru, Diego Rosa, and Mikel Landa are other strong options for a stacked Astana squad.
Dan Martin won Il Lombardia in 2014, but he’s only just returned to racing after a shoulder injury knocked him out of the Vuelta, which could hurt his chances of repeating. Still, this course suits him as well as ever (of his six career participations, he’s finished in the Top 10 four times in this race) and an encouraging showing in Milano-Torino (he was 14th) suggests that he’s already back in shape to contend. Tom-Jelte Slagter is a great alternative for Cannondale-Garmin if Dan Martin isn’t at 100%.
Speaking of past winners, Joaquím Rodríguez won Il Lombardia in 2012 and 2013, but he’s a late scratch this year after hurting his knee in training. Daniel Moreno will attempt to take up the flag for Katusha, and he’s not a rider to be underestimated.
Philippe Gilbert is certainly not the rider he was back when he took the win here in 2010, but he’s looked pretty strong this year and appears to be in decent late-season form. The finale suits him well, if he can make it all the way over the tough climbs. Samuel Sánchez will be a fine second. Greg Van Avermaet was originally going to ride this race as well, but he withdrew from the startlist upon returning from Richmond a bit jet-lagged.
Rui Costa was 3rd in 2014 and I expect him to contend for the win this year. He tends to attract less attention than he maybe should given his excellent array of abilities, and I think that could come in particularly handy on this profile. I wouldn’t be surprised if the peloton let him jump clear on one of the final two climbs only to see him hold out all the way to the line. Diego Ulissi is a nice backup option for Lampre-Merida.
Tim Wellens has had his sights set on improving last season’s 4th place all year long. This profile will really put him to the test, but like Costa and Nibali, he’s not afraid to go all-in on an attack, and he often gets a bit more breathing room than maybe he should (as was the case when his two-man move in the GP Montréal managed to go the distance). Tony Gallopin will also be on the limit on this course but will be a huge threat if he holds out to the finish.
AG2R sends a powerhouse team to Il Lombardia, with Domenico Pozzovivo, Romain Bardet, and Alexis Vuillermoz all capable of being in the mix. The French outfit isn’t well-known for its one-day prowess but Pozzovivo and Bardet in particular have had a few nice showings in Liège-Bastogne-Liège and this route should be even better for them. On the other side of the French team coin is FDJ, a squad sending only one strong contender this race in Thibaut Pinot, a rider who doesn’t have anything to speak of in the realm one-day results—but who is in good shape right now.
Rafal Majka was 3rd here back in 2013 and looks to be strong right now. Michal Kwiatkowski is also showing great end-of-year form for Etixx-QuickStep, and he hasn’t done much historically in this race, the profile should suit him. Orica-GreenEdge sends a team full of options: Adam and Simon Yates, Esteban Chaves, Simon Gerrans, and Michael Albasini will all have a chance here. Expect OGE to try to stick a rider in every legitimate move. Trek has Bauke Mollema, Julián Arredondo, and Fränk Schleck. LottoNL-Jumbo’s Robert Gesink and Wilco Kelderman are worth watching. Former three-time winner Damiano Cunego, Sergio Henao, Wout Poels, Davide Rebellin, Rodolfo Torres, Warren Barguil, and Tom Dumoulin are other riders who could be in the mix.
VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites
Winner: Vincenzo Nibali Podium: Alejandro Valverde, Rui Costa Other Top Contenders: Dan Martin, Tim Wellens, Rafal Majka, Philippe Gilbert, Domenico Pozzovivo, Thibaut Pinot, Daniel Moreno
As the last WorldTour race of the season, Il Lombardia is also the last event that VeloHuman will preview in 2015. I hope you’ve enjoyed the year as much as I have! Follow @VeloHuman on Twitter to stay up-to-date with the cycling world through the cold, dark offseason. The Tour Down Under will be here before you know it!
Stage 20 will almost certainly be the final stage of the Vuelta with GC implications, and fortunately for anyone hoping for a close fight, the profile should set up a thriller.
The road from start in San Lorenzo de El Escorial to the finish in Cercedilla won’t be easy, with four Cat. 1s along the way. The road goes upward right from the start, gradually rising into the foot of the Puerto de Navacerrada, 9.4km at 6.6%. Then comes a flat section and then descent to the foot of the Puero de la Morcuera, 11.5km at 5.4%. It’s a grand chance to get acclimated to the climb: from the top, the riders will descend down to a flat stretch before circling back around and going right back up again, albeit on a partially different route for 10.4 total kilometers of climbing at 6.6%. One more downhill leads into the last official climb of the 2015 Vuelta.
11km at 5.3%, the Puerto de Cotos is challenging by itself but it’s really the incessant nature of the climbing on Stage 20 that will do the most damage. The gradients on the final climb aren’t that steep.
After the KOM summit, there’s a 7km flat section before a descent to the finish, where the road kicks up again in the final moment for 200 meters at almost 10%.
As the last mountain stage in the Vuelta, Stage 20 will be a critical opportunity for the GC riders to change their fortunes before Madrid. Even without a summit finish, the motivation should be there for the top riders in the race to make this a challenging day. The up-and-down profile does make for an appealing route for the breakaway, though, and the riders up the road early will at least have some chance at success if the GC favorites hold off on any serious hostilities until late in the day.
If the GC men are the ones vying for the stage, Alejandro Valverde is the prime pick for the stage victory. His skillset is perfect for Stage 20, where the climbs might not be hard enough to blow up the group of overall favorites before the finish. Valverde is also highly motivated to nab a result now that he’s feeling good again after a few off days.
Joaquím Rodríguez is an obvious candidate as well with this finish, though Daniel Moreno is also looking strong. Moreno may be an even stronger candidate for victory right now, and Katusha does not appear to be afraid to let Purito’s loyal lieutenant strike out on his own every once in a while.
Fabio Aru will certainly try to distance Tom Dumoulin on this stage, and while I was under the belief a few days ago that he’d be successful, I’m not so sure after Aru’s crash on Stage 19. He looks to be a bit worse for the wear. What’s more, Tom Dumoulin has a lot of pop and could shine in this finish if he can make it over all the climbs with the leaders. He can’t be counted out for the stage victory.
Esteban Chaves, Rafal Majka, and Nairo Quintana are all showing strong enough form, and are all far enough behind Dumoulin, that it wouldn’t be all that surprising if any of them launched a stage-winning attack on the final categorized climb.
For riders who will be candidates for breakaway success, look to the strongest of the riders who have been consistently involved in the battle to make it into the early move. Romain Sicard, Nicolas Roche, Rodolfo Torres, Alessandro De Marchi, Darwin Atapuma, Rubén Plaza, and Giovanni Visconti are all on the long list of potential winners from afar.
