Tag: Alejandro Valverde

Vuelta a España 2013 Day 18: Where We Stand After Sixteen Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 17-19

Day 18: GC Shaping Up

The trip to the Pyrenees whittled an already thin list of true contenders down even further. With just three uphill finishes remaining, only three riders are within two and a half minutes of Vincenzo Nibali: Christopher Horner, Alejandro Valverde, and Joaquim Rodriguez. Breakaway riders took impressive victories on Stages 14 (Daniele Ratto), 15 (Alexandre Geniez), and 16 (Warren Barguil again). Attrition dropped Nicolas Roche from his spot near the top (he now sits 3:43 back on Nibali after a trying Stage 14) and it dropped Ivan Basso and many others out of the race entirely on a rainy, cold Stage 15 that saw mass abandons. On Stage 16, as the GC contenders rolled in behind Barguil and Rigoberto Uran (who lost out to Barguil in a photo finish), Nibali looked vulnerable for the first time, losing a little over twenty seconds to his rivals. After the rest day, the road from Calahorra to Burgos provides only on a pair of Cat. 3 climbs, giving Nibali a bit more time to get back any strength he might be missing before the arduous trip from Burgos to the Peña Cabarga, and then the lumpy stage that prefaces the road to l’Angliru.

Stage 17: Calahorra > Burgos | 189km | Medium Mountains

While there are only two categorized climbs, there is a good deal of upward travel in the first 140 kilometers of the stage. The last few days have been for aggressive attackers, and surely Stage 17 will see riders striking out for the long one; but it’s been a long time since the sprinters had a chance to be on camera, and those who have made it this far will fight hard to bring back anyone up the road. The last several kilometers are techinical and include a short but steep spur that will invite further aggression. Michael Matthews and Maximiliano Richeze have looked the strongest to the line so far in this race, if it comes to a bunch sprint. Edvald Boasson Hagen, Gianni Meersman, and Fabian Cancellara are strong options as well, given their combined sprinting and soloing abilities. Boasson Hagen’s Team Sky came so close to a victory in Stage 16, and Eddy Bos himself was barely pipped to the line by Philippe Gilbert earlier in the Vuelta; he’ll be highly motivated and he’s very capable in this sort of finish. Juan Antonio Flecha has been a common sight at the Vuelta’s sprint finishes, though he hasn’t come that close to actually winning anything. This finish suits him as well as any.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Edvald Boasson Hagen | 2. Michael Matthews | 3. Maximiliano Richeze | 4. Fabian Cancellara

Stage 18: Burgos > Peña Cabarga | 186km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

The road out of Burgos is much more demanding than the road in. It goes up and over a trio of Category 3s and a hard Cat. 2, and then finishes atop the Peña Cabarga. The summit has seen fireworks before (future Tour de France winner Chris Froome bested Juan Jose Cobo here in 2011). It’s an extremely difficult, 6 km push at an average of 9.2%, and a 20% section in the final kilometer will surely see gaps form late if they haven’t already. With so many lumps early, this stage could be another for a breakaway, as the GC strongmen haven’t seemed too concerned with the prospect of hunting down early breakers. If that happens, watch out for Rigoberto Uran, who was so close to a victory in Stage 16. Amets Txurruka will probably have another go at it, as might Chris Anker Sorensen. Diego Ulissi has been a bit quiet lately, but after some rest, he might have the strength to challenge for the stage victory. Igor Anton, currently in 15th, will probably be allowed up the road if he attacks on the final climb, and he’s managed to keep pace with the GC heavyweights over the last few days, showing great form.

Whether their battles will come behind a successful breakaway is hard to say, but the fight among the red jersey contenders will be fierce. Having smelled blood on Stage 16, Nibali’s rivals will look for a chance to test him again here. The steepness would seem to favor Joaquim Rodriguez. Alejandro Valverde looked good attempting to chase him down on the last day in the Pyrenees. Thibaut Pinot has been very impressive of late, and his fresher legs appear to be paying off. Samuel Sanchez has been coming on strong. Chris Horner looks unbelievable going uphill, and he’s had the help of a very strong Robert Kiserlovski. Nicolas Roche cracked on stage 14, but on Stages 15 and 16 he was looking sharp again. The relatively short length of the climb will not favor Nibali’s climbing style, so he’d better be rested and ready to fight.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodriguez | 2. Igor Anton | 3. Rigoberto Uran | 4. Christopher Horner

Stage 19: San Vicente de la Barquera > Alto del Naranco | 181km | Medium Mountains

A relatively flat first half gives way to a very lumpy second half: this stage will favor an aggressive, punchy rider with a lot of pop still in his legs after so many miles already traveled through Spain. The day finishes with a roughly 6 km, 4.2% average grade Cat. 2, Alto del Naranco: not tough enough to open up big time gaps in GC, but more than tough enough to put a hard hitting climber in line for the victory. Warren Barguil has to be in the conversation again. Rinaldo Nocentini has come close in a few stages (2nd to Barguil in Stage 13), and the explosive French rider will look to stand out among a field that has been reduced by the tough hills and tough weather by this late point. Bauke Mollema was right behind him on that stage and will be hoping to salvage something from this Grand Tour, and he is a hard finisher uphill. Uran and Ulissi will again be aiming to put their explosiveness to good use. Uran’s teammate Sergio Henao and Lampre’s Michele Scarponi (who has been very active in breakaways recently) could see an opportunity here, and Amets Txurruka will definitely look to be involved in any breakaway proceedings. Should the peloton reach the final climb together, the Katusha duo of Daniel Moreno and Joaquim Rodriguez will try to best Alejandro Valverde for the day’s victory, and Samuel Sanchez will be gunning for the line as well. Chris Horner has basically attacked on every summit finish, and he could do so again here. Ivan Santaromita, Mikel Landa, and Pieter Serry are other outsiders for the stage win, whether from the breakaway or the peloton.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Rigoberto Uran | 2. Diego Ulissi | 3. Bauke Mollema | 4. Warren Barguil

September 11, 2013
Vuelta a España 2013 Day 14: Where We Stand After Thirteen Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 14-16

Day 14: Into the Pyrenees

The last three days have been full of surprises. Fabian Cancellara and Tony Martin taking the top two spots in Stage 11’s ITT, perhaps not that surprising… But Domenico Pozzovivo taking the third spot ahead of Vincenzo Nibali? And Nicolas Roche not far behind? Clearly they are on the form of their lives. On Stage 12, World Champion Philippe Gilbert finally took his first win of the year, timing a sprint perfectly and zipping past Edvald Boasson Hagen in the closing meters of a slightly uphill finish. An impressive group managed to break away on Stage 13, and an on again off again pursuit eventually gave up the chase, allowing Warren Barguil to solo away from his breakaway companions in the last kilometer for the victory. Two relatively easy days of racing complete, the peloton now takes on three very hard stages that are sure to have GC implications.

Stage 14: Bagà > Andorra | 155.7km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

The first categorized climb of the day happens to be the highest point in the Vuelta, Port de Envalira. The special category ascent is a 26.7 km slog at an average of 5.2% with sections of 15%; it’s a long, hard climb to the top, but the summit is nearly 70 kilometers from the finish, and after the legs of even the best climbers are exhausted, the climbing will continue. Steep descents and a pair of Cat. 2s lie between the special category climb and the finish, a Cat. 1 summit, 7.2 km at 8% that doesn’t really let up at the line either. There are some real talents who are out of GC contention these days, meaning a breakaway win is more than possible; if that happens, Roman Kreuziger, Diego Ulissi, and any number of Euskaltel riders (Anton, Nieve) might try to get into the fray. But it will be a grueling day of racing and no small feat to stay away from the peloton riding up and over four very hard climbs. With so much up and down, falling off the pace could lead to serious losses, meaning that the GC men will be at their limit trying to hang on. There have been some tough days so far in the Vuelta, but nothing with this much potential to blow up the race.

Whether they are contesting for the stage or fighting amongst themselves behind a breakaway, I see Vincenzo Nibali staying in control of the lead and Ivan Basso and Joaquim Rodriguez possibly gaining a bit on the others in the top 10. Rodriguez knows he needs to get up the road before his opportunities run out, and Stage 14 could be one of his best remaining, while Basso is built for long, grueling days like this, especially since he doesn’t have the mileage many of his rivals have this year. If Thibaut Pinot can handle the high speed descending (and the weather may be nasty as well), he’s looked very good climbing in this Vuelta. Chris Horner has been climbing unbelievably so far, but Stage 14 could really test his resolve. I’ve been doubting him so far and he’s continuously surprised me, but I’m doubting him again here anyway. Alejandro Valverde had a bit of trouble hanging on on Stage 10 and his team is down a man after a crash; he’ll have some tough days ahead if he wants to stay close to Nibali. Nicolas Roche and Domenico Pozzovivo have been outperforming expectations so far; it’s time to see if they’re really up to snuff. Dani Moreno and Samuel Sanchez both struggled in Stage 10; Moreno might be able to hang onto his top 10 position, but I don’t see him picking up another stage win here. Samuel Sanchez has been getting stronger as the Vuelta goes on, and with riders with less impressive GC resumes (Eros Capecchi, Tanel Kangert) in front of him, he might lose time to Nibali this stage, but gain time on the riders around him in the GC battle.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodriguez | 2. Vincenzo Nibali | 3. Ivan Basso | 4. Alejandro Valverde

Stage 15: Andorra > Peyragudes | 224.9km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

A pair of Cat. 1 climbs before the halfway mark is even reached could be a great launching pad for anyone with breakaway aspirations. Two more categorized summits in the final 25 kilometers will require serious climbing legs. The same riders mentioned above, as well as some of the same names that attacked early in stage 13 (names like Michele Scarponi, Benat Intxausti, and Bauke Mollema) could jump at the opportunity for a stage win. Of the GC contenders, Alejandro Valverde and Dani Moreno will love the flat run-in after the final climb. With so many ascents, there will be opportunities for attacks to go out of a lead group, but it may not be steep enough to keep a small group from galloping to the line for the stage win; the real question is whether they will be breakers or GC men. Knowing how favorable the finish will be to the likes of Valverde and Katusha’s big names, Saxo-Tinkoff and the other teams in contention would love to see a breakaway take the bonus seconds away from their GC rivals.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Daniel Moreno | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez | 4. Roman Kreuziger

Stage 16: Graus > Formigal | 146.8km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

Monday’s stage is an interesting one. It’s one of the shortest stages in the race, but it’s essentially one long uphill grind with a few ups and downs on the way: the starting line’s altitude is 500 meters, but the day ends at 1800, with a Cat. 3 and Cat. 2 along the way to the Cat. 1 summit finish. The pace will be very high, and legs will tire. The last climb is 15.8 kilometers at a relatively gentle average gradient of 4%; it’s probably not steep enough to see any successful attacks from the GC men, especially not if the pace is as high as I think it will be. A breakaway could take it, of course, but should the big names constitute the group furthest up the road, the teams of the heaviest hitters will keep them at the front and in contention for a stage win. If a group finishes together, the leader of perhaps the strongest team, Vincenzo Nibali, will probably be content to roll in behind the leaders of the other marquee teams: Alejandro Valverde, Nicolas Roche, and Joaquim Rodriguez.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Nicolas Roche | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez | 4. Vincenzo Nibali

-Dane Cash

Photo by Andy Hay.

September 7, 2013
Vuelta a España 2013 Day 11: Where We Stand After Ten Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 11-13

Day 11: Turning Back the Clock

The past few days have proven decisive for a number of outside GC contenders in the Vuelta. Not long after my last update, Dan Martin withdrew with a concussion. In Stage 8, Bauke Mollema lost enough time to put himself out of the conversation, and Roman Kreuziger apparently started to have a heart problem that would, over the coming stages, drop him out of the conversation as well.

“Up-and-comer” Leopold Konig did, in fact, take Stage 8 with a well-timed, well-executed attack. The other top names were close behind. Moreno continued to look strong on a parcours that appeared to be designed perfectly for him and his teammate Joaquim Rodriguez on stage 9. And Stage 10? Perhaps it’s time to finally start believing that Chris Horner is the real deal. I used the vague terms “serious GC showdown” and “riders on elite form” to describe how Stage 10 would play out, but I’ll admit I wasn’t really thinking of the Radioshack veteran: all along I’ve been expecting him to fade, but he hasn’t yet, and he managed to drop everyone on the slopes of Alto Hazallanas on his way to the top. Vincenzo Nibali, however, was not all that far behind and a fair bit ahead of the other contenders, and unfortunately for Horner, a time trial looms. The American took the red jersey back from Dani Moreno, but I fear he won’t wear it long.

Stage 11: Tarazona | 38.8km | Individual Time Trial

It’s an individual time trial with a Cat. 3 climb right at the heart of it, but it’s not so steep as to make me believe that anyone other than Tony Martin is going to win it. He’s the man to beat in all but the most difficult climber-oriented time trials, and betting against him on flatter days and even pseudo-hilly chronos has proven a dangerous decision so far this year. If he can win an ITT in which Nairo Quintana finished ahead of Richie Porte (Stage 6 at the Tour of the Basque Country), he can probably win this. Competition from fellow time trialing superstar Fabian Cancellara will be fierce, and the hill in the middle will help the classics specialist and strong descender, but Spartacus has been doing some hard racing in support of his team leader lately, and will continue to do so. Moreoever, he seems to be focusing more on his mass-start skills than his soloing right now. Like Tony Martin, there are plenty of other time trialing specialists in attendance who have come to the Vuelta with this one stage in mind (though it’s hard to see anyone beating Martin, the odds-on favorite), including Lieuwe Westra, who loves a time trial with a climb or two, Marco Pinotti, Stef Clement, and Luis Leon Sanchez. Edvald Boasson Hagen is more than just a TT specialist, but he’s capable of a high placing. I don’t include Tanel Kangert with those other names because I see him as a pseudo-GC name at the moment (he’s 14th overall) and after being a faithful domestique for Nibali all through the Giro, perhaps Astana will give him the green light to do his best in the Vuelta: he seems to have sacrificed some of his time trialing ability for climbing skills this year, but with this profile, things should balance out. If Astana gives him the go-ahead to ride hard for himself, I see him finishing between 2nd and 5th. Of the marquee names for GC, Nibali stands out head and shoulders above the rest. He’s the only rider in the top 10 with an actual chance to win this time trial, as he has become an elite time trialist at this point in his career, which he showed with commanding performances in the Giro. Ivan Basso, Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim Rodriguez (vastly improved in this discipline) will hope to limit their losses to within a minute of Astana’s leader; the Cat. 3 climb should help with that. Roche and Moreno aren’t great against the clock, but they aren’t terrible, and hanging around relatively close to their current positions is a reasonable expectation, though Roche will likely lose his spot on the virtual podium. I expect Pinot, Majka, Pozzovivo, and, yes, Chris Horner to struggle. None of them has the resume to produce anything other than expectations of large time losses here, though, of course, Chris Horner has been blowing up expectations daily. Samuel Sanchez will be excited about the opportunity to gain a chunk of time on his chase for whatever position he is targeting now that he’s no longer a contender for the red jersey; he has (or at least, had) a strong time trial when he is on form.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Tony Martin | 2. Fabian Cancellara | 3. Vincenzo Nibali | 4. Tanel Kangert

Stage 12: Maella > Tarragona | 164.2km | Flat

After putting up with a few grueling days of climbing and time trialing, the sprinters finally get another day in the (hot Spanish) sun. There is a Category 3 climb to be summitted with more than 70 kilometers to go, but other than that, there isn’t much to keep the fast men from the line. It’s a day for the true sprinters, who must feel cheated after Stybar and Gilbert got the jump on them on the pan-flat Stage 7. Look to some familiar names to stake their claim today, though the dearth of marquee sprint team leaders means that a big bunch of teams have multiple options, and it’s been hard to nail down whom they are favoring in advance. If Orica-GreenEdge is still committed to giving him opportunities, this would be a great day for Leigh Howard, but it’s unclear whether they are just going 100% for Matthews now. It appears that Argos-Shimano favors Janse van Rensburg on the flatter days. Maybe. Nikias Arndt and Ramon Sinkeldam are there, too. Belkin has both Graeme Brown and Robert Wagner, who won the bunch sprint for 3rd on Stage 7. FDJ has Anthony Roux and Geoffrey Soupe. Vacansoleil has been one of the hardest to predict: depsite the presence of ostensibly highly talented sprinter Barry Markus, it has been the immensely mediocre Juan Antonio Flecha who has featured so frequently in the bunch sprints. No longer will Markus be a concern, as he did not finish Stage 10, but the team has sometimes thrown Grega Bole into the mix as well. Andrew Fenn got DQed, ending the sprinting leadership debate at OPQS, at least, though this stage might not be selective enough for Gianni Meersman.

Sky, Garmin, Lampre, Saxo-Tinkoff, and Cofidis seem to have settled on their sprinters in, respectively: Edvald Boasson Hagen, Tyler Farrar, Maximiliano Richeze, Michael Morkov, and Adrien Petit. I also think that these are some of the strongest sprinting names in the race right now. Richeze has been 2nd twice, and Lampre wants something to show for this Grand Tour. Former track star Michael Morkov will appreciate the uber flat run into the finish on Stage 12. Petit has been improving. Farrar is still searching for that big win, but he hasn’t been too far off the mark.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Maximiliano Richeze | 2. Adrien Petit | 3. Tyler Farrar | 4. Michael Morkov

Stage 13: Valls > Castelldefels | 169km | Medium Mountains

An early Cat. 3 and then a sudden, sheer Cat. 1 will challenge those riders who are likely to have done well on the previous stage. The four and a half kilometer climb at 10.6% could cause serious splits, benefitting the breakaway as the heavier riders try to catch back up to those who get over the hump first, but the top of the Cat. 1 is still some 40 kilometers from the finishing town of Castelldefels, and the road is pretty much downhill or flat all the way home, leaving plenty of time for those who have fallen off to play catchup. As the sprinters’ opportunities are very limited now, they’ll work hard to ensure that this thing ends in a sprint. It likely will, though the group that comes to the line might be reduced and fatigued. Sounds like a perfect opportunity for Michael Matthews to pick up a second stage win, or for Meersman or Boasson Hagen to pick up their first this Vuelta. With higher mountains looming, competition will be fierce, and the likes of Richeze, Petit, Farrar, and other bigger fast men will love the finish if they can just get there in one piece.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Michael Matthews | 2. Edvald Boasson Hagen | 3. Gianni Meersman

-Dane Cash

Photo by Tom Ducat-White.

September 4, 2013
Vuelta a España 2013 Day 7: Where We Stand After Seven Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 8-10

Day 7: Fast Men Have Their Chances, Mountains Await

Stages 4-7, while not particularly mountainous, still managed to offer plenty of excitement, with no repeat winners and no shortage of drama, even if General Classification did not see much of a real shakeup; however, at the time of this writing, Dan Martin has reportedly been taken to the hospital for injuries suffered in a crash today, a crash that dropped him a little bit after he did not make it back to the peloton quite in time. Keep an eye on that.

A “punchy, Ardennes-style GC type” (see the previous post) did, in fact, nab stage 4: 2013 La Fleche Wallone winner Daniel Moreno attacked on the uphill finish and crossed the line ahead of an aggressive Fabian Cancellara and a pack of sprinters. The red jersey went back to Nibali after a tiny gap formed on the hill, but there was little to speak of in the way of substantial time differences for any of the big contenders, a theme that continued through today’s stage. Stage 5 went, as predicted, to Michael Matthews, who has officially arrived as a name to know. Specializing in sprints after hard days of riding, particualrly with slight uphill finishes, Matthews capitalized on Stage 5’s perfect profile to power ahead of Maximiliano Richeze and Gianni Meersman, leaving Tyler Farrar and Edvald Boasson Hagen a disappointed 5th and 6th. Stage 6, which looked set to be innocuous, saw Tony Martin attack early and ride solo ahead of the peloton basically all day, exceeding everyone’s expectations and generating real belief that he might manage, somehow, to stay ahead of the chasers for the victory, before getting caught just seconds from the finish line by a hard charging bunch of sprinters led by Danish track star turned road cyclist Michael Morkov. Richeze was again 2nd, with Cancellara 3rd and Farrar 4th. The even flatter Stage 7 had enough twists and turns toward the finish to allow a very late jump by world champion Philippe Gilbert and recent Eneco Tour champion Zdenek Stybar. They somehow held their advantage to the end, and Stybar pipped Gilbert to the line in a photo finish, with the bunch just behind, led by Belkin’s Robert Wagner. Four different days, four different winners, none of them Gianni Meersman, Edvald Boasson Hagen, or Tyler Farrar. Now that the sprinters have had their shot to make a mark on this Vuelta, the road goes up.

Stage 8: Jerez de la Frontera > Alto de Peñas Blancas | 166.6km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

The peloton takes on a single categorized climb in Stage 8, but it’s a Cat. 1, 960 meter incline to the finish at Alto de Peñas Blancas. The climb is 14.5 kilometers long at an average gradient of 6.6%. The steepest portions are early (a brief section at 12.5% around 2km in), meaning that this climb will favor those all-rounders with full tanks, capable of sustained upward efforts. If a group finishes together, a strong finishing kick would seal the deal. Stage 2 might have led to frustrating time losses for a few of the big GC names, but Stage 8 is sure to cause serious selection in the fight for GC. Giro riders have now had a week to ride themselves into form, and Nibali has shown no signs of weakness, making him one of my obvious favorite for this stage, assuming a breakaway isn’t given the chance to nab a win (and given the number of riders currently still in contention for GC whose stated Giro aims are stage-win-oriented, it seems like the chase would be fierce). Ivan Basso has looked very capable so far, and he will appreciate the long road to the top. As the climb is only a little steeper and longer than that on Stage 2, many of those same names could factor here, including that stage’s winner Nicolas Roche, Domenico Pozzovivo, the ever-present Joaquim Rodriguez (though the road isn’t steep enough late enough to provide a great opportunity for his style of attack), his teammate Dani Moreno, and up-and-comers Leopold Konig and Diego Ulissi. As the ascent does even out a bit towards the top, a group could reach that point together, favoring riders with a strong finish: most obviously Alejandro Valverde, but don’t forget the rider who won the Points jersey in the 2011 Vuelta, Bauke Mollema, who has looked great so far.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Bauke Mollema | 3. Vincenzo Nibali | 4. Ivan Basso

Stage 9: Antequera > Valdepeñas de Jaén | 163.7km | Medium Mountains

Stage 9 again throws only a single categorized climb at the competitors, a Cat. 2 whose summit is 16km from the finish line, but the peloton will climb over rolling hills and then a steady upward incline to reach that summit. Then, they will zip downward toward the town of Valdepeñas de Jaen, until reaching a short but maddeningly steep ramp up to the finish line. Stage 9 is certain to provide excitement: riders might attack on the Cat. 2, or they might wait until the closing kilometer to launch up the zany climb. Katusha’s duo of Joaquim Rodriguez and Daniel Moreno (winner of this year’s La Fleche Wallone) will likely feature on the Mur de Huy-esque slope. Alejandro Valverde has come close to victory more than once on the early uphill finishes and will be out for the stage win and bonus seconds. After a rough start due to his knee injury, Philippe Gilbert has been looking stronger and stronger, and this finish suits him; the day’s climbs are likely to weed out the sprinting types from being much of a factor at the finish, but a tougher rider like Gilbert has a great opportunity to survive to the final gallop. It may be a bit steep for Simon Gerrans, who is riding himself into form, but he’s shown some real punch in earlier races this year. Roman Kreuziger, Daniel Martin (if he is alright healthwise, which is unclear at this point), Bauke Mollema, Sky teammates Rigoberto Uran and Sergio Henao, and Carlos Betancur (if he ever manages to find his legs again) have the explosiveness to take a victory here, too.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodriguez | 2. Daniel Moreno | 3. Philippe Gilbert | 4. Sergio Henao

Stage 10: Torredelcampo > Alto Hazallanas | 186.8km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

It’s a good thing that the riders get a rest day in between Stage 10 and Stage 11, because Monday’s ride from Torredelcampo to Alto Hazallanas will be very hard on everyone. The day begins with a few small foothills. A little less than 30km away from the end of the line is the Alto de Monachil, a Cat. 1 mountain with 8.5 km of ascent at 7.7%. The riders will then take a steep descent before the road goes up again toward the finish line at the end of Special Category climb, Alto de Hazallanas, which is nearly 16 kilometers long at an average of 5%. If he didn’t already have enough of an advantage on the stage given his elite descending skills, Vincenzo Nibali’s diesel climbing style will serve him well in his bid to reach finish the long, grueling challenge ahead of his opponents. The ascent is highly irregular, however, with a flat portion 6 kilometers in, followed by a quick but very steep downhill turn a little over 7 kilometers in, and then a section of roughly 5 kilometers with gradients pushing 18% before things ease off a bit near the finish. In other words, there will be opportunities for aggressive climbers to attack, paving the way for a serious GC showdown between all the big names on Stage 10. Only the riders on elite form will be able to hang in front here. Purito will surely find a section of road to power ahead, as might his teammate Dani Moreno. Carlos Betancur would love this stage if he were feeling up for it, but he has struggled mightily so far. Roman Kreuziger is the full all-rounder package, an elite climber and time trialist with the capacity for quick bursts up upward speed as well: that skill set will set him up nicely on this climb if he decides to target the victory. It will be a true test for riders who have not looked sharp yet, ie. Samuel Sanchez and Sergio Henao (though, if he can find his form, he has a surprisingly strong combination of long-term power and quick acceleration in his engine that would suit him here), as there is very little respite after the downhill section ends and the punishing steep section begins with still roughly 7 kilometers remaining. As a side note, the descent to the start of the climb will be an interesting gauge of Thibaut Pinot’s progress in his struggle to overcome a fear of going down; if he can get over that obstacle, his fresher legs (he abandoned the Tour before it’s toughest days) and overall ability could make him a real danger not only for this climb but for the GC battle in general. Stage 10 should tell us what is what this Vuelta.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Vincenzo Nibali | 2. Joaquim Rodriguez | 3. Roman Kreuziger

-Dane Cash

Photo by Contando Estrelas.

August 30, 2013
Vuelta a España 2013 Day 3: Where We Stand After Three Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 4-7

Day 3: Early Fireworks

As expected, the big GC show started right away in the 2013 Vuelta. First, a hotly contested team time trial put some favorites into strong positions (Vincenzo Nibali, and Sky’s Sergio Henao and Rigoberto Uran) and left others down a little more than they might have liked (Ivan Basso, Michele Scarponi, and Dan Martin). Then, stage two shook up the fight for the red jersey when the lead group dropped heavy hitters like the aforementioned Sergio Henao and Samuel Sanchez, who lost a few minutes on GC, and Carlos Betancur, who put himself completely out of contention rolling in more than nine minutes down. Nicolas Roche led a late attack over the line with other GC outsiders Dani Moreno, Domenico Pozzovivo, and Leopold Konig, and the rest of the big names were close behind. Stage 3 saw some danger moments for a number of riders after crashes and windy conditions caused splits, but things got organized for the final climb. 41 year old American Chris Horner (RSLT) attacked late and the rest of the big names just stared at each other, allowing the veteran to nab the stage victory and the red jersey. Valverde won the sprint behind him and a few small gaps formed on the summit finish, but all of the favorites finished within a few seconds of each other. Now, after a thrilling first three days, the Vuelta turns to four straight days that could potentially be for the sprinters.

Stage 4: Lalín > Fisterra | 189km | Flat

There is only one categorized climb on the menu, but Stage 4 is rather lumpy, enough to spur a breakaway move early. The peloton will fight to reel them in, and the generally downhill/flat stretch of about thirty kilometers leading into the finish will favor the pursuit. Then, the road heads up at roughly 3.5% for the finish at a beautiful promontory (pictured above) that was once the edge of the known world for much of Western Europe. It’s enough to give an advantage to the lighter, more capable climbers of the sprinting crowd, and a bend in the road in final few hundred kilometers will favor a well-marshaled, aggressive squad. Assuming the pack finishes together, this sounds perfect for Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Gianni Meersman. He’s been on fire this year, and his legs don’t have any Grand Tour mileage in them other than what they’ve covered so far this week. BMC will potentially look to set up Philippe Gilbert again, especially after he was unable to threaten in Stage 3. It might not be steep enough for Gilbert to outshine some of the stronger kicks in the peloton, especially with his recent nasty knee injury. Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen would be an obvious pick here were it not for his shoulder injury from the Tour de France; with those concerns, it is harder to say how he will fare. He was dropped from the Sky train in the opening time trial, but he looked okay climbing up the summit finish of Stage 3. Orica-GreenEdge has both Simon Gerrans and Michael Matthews, and it seems like they’ll favor the latter here, though it’s never easy to tell with OGE. The finish might be a bit steep for Tyler Farrar, but he’s been very good this year. The two under-the-radar sprinters I tipped in my initial Vuelta preview, Argos Shimano’s Nikias Arndt and Reinardt Janse van Rensburg, could also factor here. If an aggressive rider manages to attack for the win, don’t be surprised if it’s Diego Ulissi, Luis Leon Sanchez, Grega Bole, or the resurgent Anthony Roux. And of course, the uphill finish could see Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim Rodriguez, and other punchy, Ardennes-style GC types strike out for bonus seconds.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Gianni Meersman | 2. Michael Matthews | 3. Philippe Gilbert | 4. Alejandro Valverde

Stage 5: Sober > Lago de Sanabria | 174.3km | Medium Mountains

Another lumpy day, with two Cat 3 climbs and a lot of uncategorized ascending, Stage 5 will also likely see a lot of attacking early. However, the road angles downward again with plenty of distance left, and with one of the few relatively flat finishes in this Vuelta awaiting the peloton at the end of the line, those sprinters who have made it over the hills will be extra-motivated to bring back anyone up the road. The lumps may force some selection, but it seems likely that this stage will go to a sprinter. If OGE decides to support Michael Matthews over Gerrans or Leigh Howard (and, as this is a more difficult stage but not an extremely difficult one, they seem likely to), this is a great opportunity for him. Tyler Farrar isn’t guaranteed to make it, but as few sprinting opportunities as there are in this race, he’ll surely be giving every one of them 100%. Gianni Meersman and (assuming he’s healthy enough) Edvald Boasson Hagen probably won’t have much trouble with the climbing, so they’re sure to challenge. Whomever Argos-Shimano decides to back, Janse van Rensburg or Ardnt, will have a good opportunity as well. Cannondale’s young up-and-comer Daniele Ratto might be in the mix. If BMC decides to support Gilbert for the sprints at the end of every difficult stage, he could be involved here, too. Vacansoleil’s Barry Markus, should he manage to finish with the bunch, is a danger if he makes it to the finish with the pack and with his strength, and Omega Pharma-Quick Step’s Andrew Fenn is a name to keep in mind as well. Finally, Fabian Cancellara’s goals in this Vuelta are rather unclear, but he might target this stage with its potentially selective early climbs, but flatter finish.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Michael Matthews | 2. Gianni Meersman | 3. Tyler Farrar | 4. Edvald Boasson Hagen

Stage 6: Guijuelo > Caceres | 175km | Flat

Stage 6 is the flattest stage so far, one that the sprinters will have circled in the road book. There is a very short kick upward not far from the finish line, but it seems likely that the stage will end in a bunch sprint contested by the big names. Tyler Farrar is the first one that comes to mind. Barry Markus of Vacansoleil and Adrien Petit of Cofidis will be eager to sure what they can do, if they haven’t already in the previous two stages. We will probably know the rider that Argos is favoring by this point, so keep an eye on Stages 4 and 5 to get an idea of the direction in which they’re heading in terms of Ardnt vs. Janse van Rensburg. We’ll also probably have a better idea of how Boasson Hagen is doing by this point. As always, Meersman could be in play, or it could be a time for Andrew Fenn. Orica-GreenEdge might go with Leigh Howard here.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Tyler Farrar | 2. Barry Markus | 3. Gianni Meersman

Stage 7: Almendralejo > Mairena del Aljarafe | 205.9km | Flat

I hate to say it, but with so many consecutive stages that could go to sprinters, I’m running out of things to say about them. Stage 7 is almost certain to end in a bunch gallop, and by this point, if you’ve been watching the previous bunch sprints, you’ll already have a good sense of what is what in this race. It should be the usual suspects here, and it’s probably Farrar’s best shot to win a stage until the Madrid finale. Same goes for Leigh Howard, given OGE’s stated intention of giving Michael Matthews the green light on harder stages. This could be a stage for Andrew Fenn of OPQS, or they could stick with Meersman. You should be familiar with the rest of the names now: Boasson Hagen, Markus, Arndt/Janse van Rensburg, Petit. Watching from home, Theo Bos will rue the low cortisol levels that kept him out of the race.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Tyler Farrar | 2. Barry Markus | 3. Leigh Howard

-Dane Cash

Photo by Oscar Anton.

August 26, 2013
Vuelta a España 2013 Day 0: Where We Stand, and Looking Ahead to Stages 1-3

Day 0: Starting with a Bang

No easing into this one. The Vuelta opens with a team time trial and back-to-back steep uphill finishes. That means the contenders will have to be on their game from the moment they clip in on the first stage. I’ve already covered most of “where we stand” in my comprehensive race preview, so let’s get to it.

Stage 1: Vilanova de Arousa > Sanxenxo | 27km | Team Time Trial

It isn’t a long team time trial, and it’s not hilly either. Omega Pharma-Quick Step will be hoping to defend their world TTT title at the upcoming championships in Italy, and after just missing out in the Tour de France, they will be gunning for this one. Tony Martin leads the squad, but they are missing some of their big pieces, like Sylvain Chavanel and Niki Terpstra. Still, they’ve got some talent here. Astana’s strong squad looks poised to challenge them. Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff both have a boatload of talented riders, but this parcours might be a bit flat for them. Sky’s roster isn’t packed with as many TT stars as it was in the Giro and the Tour, but they’ll probably be alright. Speaking of the Tour, Orica-GreenEdge fielded a very different squad there, and I don’t expect them to provide back to back Grand Tour TTT wins. RadioShack – Leopard will be led by Fabian Cancellara. Don’t overlook them, despite their aging roster behind him. Traditional favorites BMC and Garmin aren’t packing many heavy hitters. Katusha will be gunning to keep Purito from losing too much time.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Astana | 2. Omega Pharma-Quick Step | 3. Movistar | 4. Radioshack-Leopard

Stage 2: Pontevedra > Monte da Groba | 176.8km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

We had to wait until the eight day of the Tour de France to get a summit finish. The Vuelta will be cutting to the chase much more quickly. The run to the top of Monte da Groba includes a Category 3 climb well before the halfway point and is otherwise pretty flat. However, 11km before the finish, the road turns up and stays steep until the summit finish. The average grade is 5.6%, with a 10% section early, a litte break in the middle, and then an 8% section near the top. It’s an early test, and gaps will surely form, but they aren’t likely to be devastating. Carlos Betancur has had plenty of time to rest since the Giro, and while it’s possible he might not be able to sustain a high level all Vuelta, he’s sure to be gunning for every uphill finish out there. For all his success, he has yet to claim his first WorldTour win. I’ll take a few stars of the Giro here, who have had plenty of time to recharge since they last Grand Toured. It’s also possible that a non-GC threat could be allowed to go up the road.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Carlos Betancur | 2. Sergio Henao | 3. Vincenzo Nibali

Stage 3: Vigo > Mirador de Lobeira | 172.5km | Medium Mountains

Stage 2’s finish isn’t backbreaking, but it should tell us at least a little bit about what’s what in this Vuelta. That means that anything I have to say about a Stage 3 could be completely out-of-date by the time the riders take to the road on Monday, but I’ll go ahead and make some predictions anyway. Until the last 4 kilometers, Stage 3 presents the riders with nary a hill. Then comes the finish, a climb of roughly 6%. With such a flat profile leading into the day’s only real climb, which is a short one, competition will be hot and heavy as the peloton hits the Cat. 3 at a very high pace. It’s steep, but not that steep, and the slope eases a bit in the last few hundred meters; a group of hard-chargers could come across the line together. The last image I saw of Philippe Gilbert was a bloodied and bruised leg post-crash in the Eneco Tour, but he is back on the bike and will love this opportunity to nab his first win of the year, especially after coming so close in Benelux (where he was 2nd on an uphill sprint to Arnaud Demare before crashing on the stage that perhaps best suited his skills). Other familiar hard-finishing, uphill-capable names could be in the mix as well. Alejandro Valverde and Purito Rodriguez should jump at the opportunity to pick up bonus seconds with a short uphill sprint. Roman Kreuziger, Simon Gerrans, Dan Martin, and Bauke Mollema might be in the hunt, too.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Philippe Gilbert | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Simon Gerrans | 4. Joaquim Rodriguez

-Dane Cash

Photo by Sean Rowe, Profiles from www.lavuelta.com.

August 23, 2013