VeloHuman

Tag: Alejandro Valverde

  • Vuelta a España 2013 Preview

    Angliru

    Race Overview

    The final Grand Tour of 2013 is here at last! It promises to be grueling, extremely hilly and hot, which means plenty of entertainment for us. In return, VeloHuman promises to be full of content: after this outlook on the overall race, every few days will bring recaps and previews of the stages to come, so check back often. If you just came here for the picks, well, they’re at the bottom, but if you scroll past all the analysis, you’ll miss some names you might not have otherwise considered!

    The 2013 Vuelta will put twenty-stages and four jerseys (General Classification, Points, Mountains, and Combination) up for grabs. Time bonuses of 10, 6, and 4 seconds are awarded to the top three finishers on each stage, and bonuses of 6, 4, and 2 seconds are awarded to the first three riders across the lines of intermediate sprints. Mountains are classified (from easiest to hardest) as Categories 3, 2, 1, and (for the marquee summits) Especial.

    The first stage is a team time trial, not terribly long or hilly, and stage 11 is an individual time trial, with a small climb in the middle. We’ll call five stages (stages 4, 6, 7, 12, and 21) flat, and an additional three stages (stages 5, 13, and 17) are classified here as “medium mountain” stages, but will likely end in sprints, albeit with possibly reduced bunches. The remaining eleven stages are mountainous and finish uphill: stages 3, 9, and 19 are also classified as medium mountain stages but end with ascents, and stages 2, 8, 10, 14, 15, 16, 18, and 20 all fall into the high mountain class.

    With so many uphill finishes scattered throughout the twenty-one days of racing, the Vuelta organizers have guaranteed an intense battle for the overall victory that will rage constantly, rather than slowly building up to a few grueling stages in the last week–though with L’Angliru awaiting the GC contenders as the final summit of the 2013 Vuelta a España, the last week will be more than grueling. Not many pure sprinters are bothering to make the trip. This is truly a tour for the star climbers, and many of the sport’s most recognizable climbing talents (minus recent Tour de France racers Chris Froome, Nairo Quintana, and Alberto Contador) are making the journey to the province of Pontevedra to start the race, regardless of their fatigue level this late in the year.

    Nibali

    All-rounder Roundup

    As so many major contenders are taking on the Vuelta after already grinding through either the Giro or the Tour this year, and with so many difficult stages offering opportunities for even the best riders to lose huge chunks of time at once, the quest for the GC victory at the Vuelta a España will be very hard to call. On perfect form and targeting this race, Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali would be a strong favorite. He dominated the Giro d’Italia with his combination of elite climbing and relatively newfound elite time trialing, winning the pink jersey with nearly five minutes of cushion over the 2nd place rider, Sky’s Rigoberto Uran. He has already won the Vuelta once, in 2010, and he knows that an opportunity to win two Grand Tours in a year, an opportunity that he has in 2013, is a rare thing. However, after a midseason break from racing, it is hard to tell whether Nibali has the form to take on another three-week Grand Tour as the favorite, especially when his next main target this season is the World Championship race, an event with far more climbing than usual that is being held in his home country. That leaves this competition open for a sizable lot of other contenders, though the question of focus (Vuelta vs. World Champs) exists for nearly every one of them.

    Still, the discussion should start with Vincenzo Nibali. Not only is he probably the strongest all-round rider in this Vuelta at his best, he’s also riding at the head of a stacked team. His Astana supporting squad includes Tour top 10 man Jakob Fuglsang (don’t write him off for a top 10 here if he targets it), and capable all-rounders Tanel Kangert, Maxim Iglinsky, Janez Brajkovic, and Andriy Grivko. Even without Kessiakof, they are well-built for the opening team time trial, and the climbing support will be strong (as it needs to be for all the summit finishes). Nibali’s performance at the Tour de Pologne showed a lot of post-Giro rust, but he got back on track at the Vuelta a Burgos, putting in a podium performance with solid climbing legs, rolling in 48 seconds behind Quintana on the decisive final stage.

    Given his resume and a recent showing of form, Nibali is my prohibitive favorite, but even with the necessary form, his powerful engine isn’t built to nab bonus seconds in short, steep, close finishes against punchy opponents, and this Vuelta offers many opportunities for those explosive riders, meaning competition will be fierce.

    KatushaAs such, there will be a bevy of explosive climbers in attendance to challenge the Shark of Messina. Chief among them are Spanish stars Joaquim Rodriguez of Katusha and Alejandro Valverde of Movistar. Rodriguez is coming off a strong Tour de France in which he finished on the podium. The stage profiles at the Vuelta a España probably have him salivating, but he dug incredibly deep in the last week of the Tour to come up with his third place in GC. He hasn’t raced since, leaving some question marks about his form. He isn’t a stranger to performing at a high level in two Grand Tours per year (he stood on two GT podiums last year), but he did have a bit more recovery time in 2012 between the Giro and the Vuelta. Still, despite a bit of uncertainty, Purito has the talent and, at age 34 riding in his home Grand Tour, motivation will be through the roof. He has performed at an extremely high level in Grand Tours in the past two years, but his could be his best chance to finally win one. He has the finishing kick to pick up seconds on any given stage, and he has improved his time trialing enough that it shouldn’t keep him out of contention, especially not when this edition’s ITT has a categorized climb in the middle of it. If he still has the form, I think his overall package will be enough to carry him onto the podium and possibly even to the overall victory.

    Alejandro Valverde’s combination of climbing and finishing power make him another prime candidate for the podium, especially after a heartbreaking Tour de France that saw him lose an insurmountable chunk of time after a mechanical problem on a windy flat stage. Bonus seconds play to Valverde’s strengths, as he is the best sprinter among the elite climbers on the start list, but like Rodriguez, he’s coming off a Tour de France in which he went very deep in the final week (fighting to get back into the top 10 in GC, which he did), and as strong as he is, Rodriguez and Nibali may have a slight advantage in terms of pure climbing. He already has a Vuelta victory on his Palmares and knows what it takes, but this might cut both ways: with the World Championship race parcours almost perfectly tuned to his strengths, Valverde does already have one Vuelta to his name, but no rainbow jersey.

    As good as Nibali, Rodriguez, and Valverde are, none of them could be considered even close to being the favorite. This race is just too open, and there are so many questions raised by fatigue and rider motivation. The other contenders include a pack of up-and-comers, and a stable of old veterans. Perhaps chief among the 25 and under crowd are Sky’s Sergio Henao and AG2R’s Carlos Betancur. Betancur won the young rider classification at this year’s Giro, finishing in 5th place. He’s a pure climbing talent, though what he makes up for in climbing, he really lacks in time trialing (he lost five minutes to Vincenzo Nibali in the stage 8 time trial of the Giro). Fortunately, this year’s Vuelta looks perfect for that skillset. However, he has not raced at all since the Giro and at just 23, his resume lacks much evidence for his ability to perform at a high level across two GTs. As explosive as he is, it may be a bit much to ask of him to cruise through three more weeks in peak form.

    Sergio Henao, on the other hand, was able to take the Giro at a less grueling pace, riding in support of first Wiggins, and then Rigoberto Uran. He looked great climbing in the Tour de Pologne, finishing 5th, and as he has shown in single day climber’s races, he does have some explosiveness under the hood. He rides at the head of a powerful Team Sky, and Giro runner-up Rigoberto Uran is, apparently, here to support him. Henao’s best Grand Tour performance so far is his 9th place in the 2012 Giro d’Italia, but I think he will improve on that here, possibly challenging for a podium place as one of the top contenders with some of the freshest legs. The aforementioned Uran should not be written off, either; had he not ridden the Giro so hard, he’d be an obvious favorite here, but even with that mileage, he’s still a threat, though he may be more interested in the World Championship race in Italy (after his 2nd place at the Olympics and twice on the podium in Lombardy, Uran must feel the time is right for a marquee single-day win).

    Ivan Basso, Samuel Sanchez, Michele Scarponi, and Chris Horner headline the list of cagey veterans looking for statement victories at this point in their careers. Cannondale’s Basso missed the Giro this year and, therefore, has very little mileage in the legs. Only a year ago, he was 5th in that race, and he’s looked okay in recent contests (8th in the Tour de Pologne, 10th in the Vuelta a Burgos). Especially at this age, he might lack the explosiveness for a top finish in GC, but that freshness has to count for something, and his team is 100% committed to him. Samuel Sanchez will love the lumpy profile, but his stage race successes have been dwindling lately, and he put a lot of energy (with unfortunately little return) into the Giro d’Italia. Still, a top 10 performance, especially with his endurance and team support, is not out of the question. Michele Scarponi really isn’t all that old (33), but he has never performed at a high level across two Grand Tours in the same year. 4th place in the Giro is nothing to sneeze at, and suggests he still has plenty of power in the legs, but it is hard to see him nabbing a podium position in the Vuelta. Horner gets a mention for his long list of career successes, a top 10 at Tirreno-Adriatico this year, and no other Grand Tour in his legs in 2013, but I don’t know that I see a top 10 in the cards for him. His teammate Haimar Zubeldia, 36, has so many Grand Tour top 10s under his belt that even without much to talk about in terms of results this year, he gets a sentence here, too.

    Joaquim Rodriguez’s Katusha teammate Daniel Moreno took 5th in last year’s Vuelta and, while he did already ride in the Tour de France, he, like Sergio Henao, probably still has some left in the tank, in that his prior Grand Tour appearance seems to have been fully in support of a teammate. Last year, Moreno supported Rodriguez in the Giro and then was given opportunities to make his own mark in the Vuelta. If the script is the same this year, his elite climbing abilities, with no little amount of explosiveness to nab bonus seconds, could put him in the top 10.

    MajkaTeam Saxo-Tinkoff sends a whopping three possible podium finishers to the Vuelta, though all of them have already ridden in a Grand Tour this year and it is yet totally unclear who will be their top rider. On the one hand, the team has declared Roman Kreuziger leader. He is a true all-rounder and after putting in such an impressive Tour performance, he’s a legitimate threat. However, that effort and the upcoming World Championship race, which will play strongly to his Amstel Gold-winning skillset, raise a lot of questions about his motivations; he has even said straight out that he isn’t going for GC, despite being given the leadership nod. That may leave the task up to one of his strong teammates. Rafal Majka, 7th in the Giro d’Italia, is a very capable up-and-comer who just showed with a 4th place finish (and the Points Classification) at the Tour de Pologne that he still has some form. However, expecting two top-tier GT performances out of a 23-year-old rider might be a bit much. And then, of course, there is Nicolas Roche, who, in his 29th year, is surely striving for some kind of big win to add to his palmares. He certainly has the talent for a top 10, though people have been saying that for a long time. By saving his legs on a number of Tour de France stages, he has probably got some energy left for another push. He was a faithful domestique in the Tour de France and then in San Sebastian, and he may feel he has earned some team support, but we won’t know the team’s tactics until the race begins. Roche and Majka will at least be protected if they are not initially team leaders, and whomever this team ultimately decides to rally behind will have some impressive support. Chris Anker Sorensen at least deserves a mention as a potential decent finisher, and Oliver Zaugg, winner of Il Lombardia in 2011 (and so close to a top 10 at the Vuelta in 2008, where he finished 11th), will lend his support as well.

    To a lesser extent, Vacansoleil-DCM is in a similar position, with Thomas de Gendt (totally disappointing in the Tour de France), Wout Poels, and Tomasz Marcynski in attendance and all potentially capable of a GC top 10. Only a year ago, De Gendt was on the podium at the Giro d’Italia, and after falling off the pace early in the Tour de France, he showed a flare of ability in the first ITT and then disappeared again. It’s hard to say where he’ll end up in the Vuelta.

    For all his climbing talent Daniel Martin can’t be left out of a preview; he has had a stellar 2013 with a Monument victory (Liege-Bastogne-Liege), a stage in the Tour de France, and the overall and a stage in the Volta a Catalunya. In terms of chasing the GC at the Vuelta, however, there are many, many questions about his candidacy as a contender. He looked great at the Tour de France until he caught ill and finished at the back of the peloton for the final week, but strong starts and fading finishes are not new for him on the Grand Tour scene. It doesn’t help that he takes every opportunity to tell the media that he targets stage wins and doesn’t worry much about his position in GC. Additionally, the World Championship race is a target of his this year. Finally, Garmin hasn’t really sent him much help, with most of their star climbers in North America for the USA Pro Cycling Challenge and the upcoming Canadian circuit races. In his favor, the route will be to his liking, full of climbs and low on time trial mileage. He also didn’t push his legs as hard as some of the other top climbers late in the Tour de France, as he was busy battling a cough. Is a top 5 possible for someone like Martin? Sure. Is it possible that he will finish nowhere near the top 30 on GC? Sure.

    Belkin’s dynamic Tour de France duo of Laurens ten Dam and Bauke Mollema are both in attendance. Mollema has done very well here in the past, taking 4th and the points classification in 2011, and he’s become a more well-rounded rider since, but he gave his all in the Tour de France and likely won’t have too much left in his tank. Ten Dam was 8th in last year’s Vuelta after riding a Tour de France, so he can’t be written out for a top 10 either, but it’s hard to see him overtaking the fierce competition. It should be noted that Belkin’s Luis Leon Sanchez nabbed 10th place finishes in the 2010 Tour de France and Vuelta a España, but the summit-happy edition of this year’s race might be a bit out of his league in terms of GC.

    Movistar’s Eros Capecchi and Benat Intxausti and Euskaltel’s Igor Anton and Mikel Nieve are among the many super-domestiques with the chops to land in the top 10 overall. 24-year old Diego Ulissi of team Lampre has had a decent 2013, placing 7th in Paris-Nice and taking a stage in the Tour de Pologne. He doesn’t have the mileage of a prior Grand Tour in his legs, and if given opportunities, he could make a mark on GC.

    Domenico Pozzovivo of AG2R had a fine Giro d’Italia, finishing in 10th place behind his teammate Betancur, and showed good climbing form with a 7th place at the recent Tour de Pologne. As Betancur is a question mark in terms of both form and motivation, AG2R could turn its (admittedly not strong) support to Pozzovivo, who has a number of Grand Tour top 10s on his resume and could add another here.

    From the Pro Continental ranks, David Arroyo is fresh off a 2nd overall in the Vuelta a Burgos (behind Quintana and ahead of Nibali). 2010 may seem like a long time ago, but this is a rider who has been 2nd overall in Grand Tour, and, perhaps most importantly, he has not ridden one yet this year. Fresh legs and the support of a Spanish team that will be highly motivated to show their prowess in their home Grand Tour, Arroyo could put in a challenge against a field filled with exhausted contenders lacking motivation.

    Lastly, Thibaut Pinot will be at the Vuelta and, for all the jokes that have been made about his troubles with descending and his poor form in the Tour this year, he is coming off a 6th place in the Tour de l’Ain against some big talents and probably has fresher legs than most of the riders at the Vuelta with Grand Tour top 10s on their resumes. Maybe he’ll get back on track? Probably not, but it’s worth a mention.

    Even with all those names listed (far more than I outlined for the Tour preview), I’m still not confident that I’ve brought up every potential top 10 rider for GC. This Vuelta is just that open.

    Stagehunters

    The number of stages that won’t have GC implications is pretty low compared to the Tour de France we just witnessed, meaning that the collection of star stagehunters at the Vuelta is smaller than you might expect. In fact, with eleven uphill finishes, you might see the majority of the Vuelta’s stages won by GC riders, or all-rounders who have fallen off the pace and who will trade the occasional day of recovery in the saddle for shots at stage victories in the mountains. Riders likely to fit into this latter category deserve the first mention in the stagehunter section.

    It is quite possible that one or more of even the big three of Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim Rodriguez, Vincenzo Nibali will turn to targeting stage victories in preparation for the World Championship race. Given the number of uphill finishes and the bonus seconds on offer at each finish line, I’d imagine Rodriguez, Valverde, and Nibali, in that order, are the three most likely winners of the Points Classification’s green jersey. I’d also say there is a very high likelihood that one or more of Roman Kreuziger, Daniel Martin, and Daniel Moreno, the three winners of this year’s Ardennes week, will turn to focusing on nabbing multiple stage wins as well–I’d also bet that one of them is successful in this regard. Rigoberto Uran and Carlos Betancur will probably lead the Colombian charge at the World Championship race, meaning that both could drop their GC aspirations entirely and gun for multiple stage wins in preparation here at the Vuelta.

    Farrar

    And for the rest of the stages? There are very few pure sprinters in attendance. Tyler Farrar looks to be the headliner in that department, and he’s looked good this year, with a number of stage top 10s and a win in the Tour of California. There aren’t a ton of flat stages for him to make his mark on, but there is a four day period (stages 4-7) that could put him at the forefront on multiple days in a row. He’ll be challenged by a number of other sprinters and more balanced riders with fast finishes, and in that respect, he’s going up against stiff competition, as some of the sport’s top sprinters-who-can-climb/all-rounders-who-can-sprint are making the trip to this hilly edition of the Vuelta. Gianni Meersman of Omega Pharma-Quick Step won the points classification at the Criterium du Dauphine after already having nabbed two stages each at the Tour de Romandie and the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya. The 27-year old is in his prime with a powerful team backing him, and it is a team that does not really have any GC riders and will therefore be fully committed to winning stages. As hot as he has been this year, and given his skill set, Meersman could be in line for a bucketful of high placings. He can sprint with the best sprinters, he’s more than capable of getting over late climbs, and he’s even capable of longer attacks. If he weren’t contending with so many climbing superstars in a Vuelta with so many summit finishes for the points classification, he might be my pick for that jersey, and regardless, he’s definitely my pick of the non GC-contenders who will finish highest in terms of points.

    Edvald Boasson Hagen brings a similar skillset to the competition, though he is a bit of an unknown quantity after a nasty shoulder injury in the Tour de France. If he’s back on form (and he has apparently been training for some time now, having recovered quite quickly), he is, like Meersman, capable of winning on a variety of terrains in a number of different ways. Against a somewhat less challenging field, EBH has a great opportunity to add a few wins to a resume that has lacked a bit of its usual pop this year.

    As usual, Orica-GreenEdge is stacked with stagehunters. Young riders Leigh Howard and Michael Matthews are poised to make a splash, especially Matthews, who just won two stages and the points classification of the Tour of Utah to go with his other good results this year. Tour stage winner (and 2012 Milano-San Remo winner) Simon Gerrans will be in attendance for the more difficult stages, and he’s a great bet to nab a stage win, though it’s always very difficult trying to predict just which stage he’ll win, as OGE likes to mix it up. Simon Clarke took a stage win en route to last year’s KoM jersey, and is likely to try for a few long ones again here, as his list of successes is short so far in 2013.

    Without Andre Greipel to support, Lotto Belisol will try to place Jelle Vanendert for GC, and look for opportunities elsewhere as they come. Since I don’t see the relatively-unsuccessful-in-2013 Vanendert making much of a dent in the overall, perhaps he and Bert de Clercq will try to pick up a win on one of the many uphill stages, while Greg Henderson will finally be able to sprint for his own ambitions instead of leading out a Gorilla–though at his age (36), expectations are low. Perhaps the Belgian squad will surprise.

    Luis Leon Sanchez is back and looks strong again with recent good showings in the Tour de l’Ain and his National Champs races. Belkin has a strong team here, and LL Sanchez is a great bet to deliver a long attack or a victory out of a reduced bunch on one of the medium mountain stages.

    Meersman’s teammate Zdenek Stybar just wowed the cycling world with a dominant Eneco Tour, nabbing a pair of stages and the overall victory, showing some true all around talent while everyone else was focused on containing his teammate Sylvain Chavanel. Don’t be surprised to see him rack up a few more results with his aggressive riding; he has definitely arrived as a rider, and in style.

    Belkin has Theo Bos, but the former track superstar has been underwhelming this year. He did zilch at the Eneco Tour (he seemed to have trouble making it to the finishing sprints), and despite starting the year with a string of Continental Tour victories, he hasn’t had much success at the top level in 2013. The competition from pure sprinters will be light, giving him a decent opportunity to nab a win, but the result results just aren’t there to back up his bid, leaving me a bit less confident. Vacansoleil’s Barry Markus has just signed on to Belkin for 2014, and after a third place in Scheldeprijs earlier this year (ahead of Bos, and Alexander Kristoff, and Tyler Farrar), he’s primed to show his future team that he’s got the chops to be a supported sprinter.

    If you are looking for a few under the radar sprinters, I’ll name a pair of young up-and-comers riding for an Argos-Shimano squad that doesn’t have Marcel Kittel or John Degenkolb to take away stage victories: Reinardt Janse van Rensburg and Nikias Arndt. The former has put together a string of high finishes in WorldTour events in the past few months, and the latter was stellar at the recent Arctic Race of Norway.

    For the uphill sprints, Philippe Gilbert will be going all-in to nab something out of his 2013. BMC does not have a GC-oriented squad, meaning Gilbert’s goals will be the team’s goals. As ugly as his knee looked after his unfortunate crash on the Eneco Tour stage that seemed to suit him most, if he’s healthy, there are multiple stages that look great for his uphill bursts, and he looked on good form at the Eneco Tour before it all went wrong.

    Fabian Cancellara is also in attendance. He’s looking ahead to the World Championships, and might be hoping for a stage win or two. Surely he’ll be targetting the stage 11 time trial, but he’ll be up against Tony Martin, who seems content to pick off the ITTs in basically every World Tour race he can think of. The Vuelta’s does have a hill, but it’s not a massive one, and that favors these two riders over the GC men. Other contenders for that stage include, obviously, said GC types like Vincenzo Nibali, and also time trialing heavyweights Tanel Kangert, Stef Clement, and Lieuwe Westra (who, unfortunately, crashed out of an Eneco Tour that was going very well for him, after abandoning the Tour de France in its final stage).

    The three Pro Continental squads (NetApp, Cofidis, and especially Spanish team Caja Rural) will surely be sending lots of riders up the road as often as possible for maximum visibility. Maybe this is the race in which Amets Txurruka finally stays out front all day for a stage win. Leopold Konig is a name to keep in mind. Euskaltel’s stable of climbers and Vacansoleil’s breakaway artists will likely be out in force for wins on the intermediate stages as well.

    VeloHuman Predictions

    General Classification Winner

    Vincenzo Nibali

    GC Podium

    Joaquim Rodriguez, Sergio Henao

    GC Top 10

    Ivan Basso, Alejandro Valverde, Samuel Sanchez, Daniel Moreno, Carlos Betancur, Rafal Majka, Nicolas Roche

    Points Classification Winner

    Joaquim Rodriguez

    Stages

    Stage 1: Vilanova de Arousa > Sanxenxo | 27km | Team Time Trial

    Stage 2: Pontevedra > Monte da Groba | 176.8km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

    Stage 3: Vigo > Mirador de Lobeira | 172.5km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 4: Lalín > Finisterra | 186.4km | Flat

    Stage 5: Sober > Lago de Sanabria | 168.4km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 6: Guijuelo > Caceres | 177.3km | Flat

    Stage 7: Almendralejo > Mairena del Aljarafe | 195.5km | Flat

    Stage 8: Jerez de la Frontera > Alto de Peñas Blancas | 170km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

    Stage 9: Antequera > Valdepeñas de Jaén | 174.3km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 10: Torredelcampo > Alto Hazallanas | 175.5km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

    Stage 11: Tarazona | 38km | Individual Time Trial

    Stage 12: Maella > Tarragona | 157km | Flat

    Stage 13: Valls > Castelldefels | 165km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 14: Bagà > Andorra | 164km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

    Stage 15: Andorra > Peyragudes | 232.5km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

    Stage 16: Graus > Formigal | 147.7km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

    Stage 17: Calahorra > Burgos | 184.5km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 18: Burgos > Peña Cabarga | 186km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

    Stage 19: San Vicente de la Barquera > Alto del Naranco | 177.5km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 20: Aviles > Alto de L’Angliru | 144.1km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

    Stage 21: Leganes > Madrid | 99.1km | Flat

    -Dane Cash

    Photos by Román P. G., Laurent Brun (photo 2 and 4), Flowizm, and Louise Hyldegaard and Ditte Thieme.

  • Tour de France 2013 Post-race Impressions: Froome Lightyears Ahead and a Youth Movement on the Rise

    Paris2

    Brief Recap

    After Chris Froome crested stage 8’s Ax-3 Domaines way ahead of everyone else in contention, many were worried that the remaining two weeks of competition would be boring. While Team Sky’s 28-year old leader held onto the jersey tightly all the way to Paris, even increasing his lead on the rest of the bunch, this year’s two was anything but boring, even after Froome’s dominant first high mountain stage.

    Froome increased his lead with a predictably awesome time trial on Stage 11. He lost around one minute when Saxo-Tinkoff and Belkin broke away on a windy flat stage, but gained it right back climbing up Mont Ventoux. He put in another masterful performance in the mountain time trial, though this time his rivals kept their time losses to a minimum. The pressure was high heading into the double ascent of Alpe d’Huez on stage 18, the first of three grueling Alpine stages, but Froome never cracked. Breakaways took stages 18 and 19, though the GC contenders duked it out when they reached the slopes, and stage 20 saw a showdown between all top climbers in the peloton, but despite the best effort of Joaquim Rodriguez, and stacked teams like Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff, Froome’s lead barely shrunk. The high uphill tempos across the last few days were too much for Contador, who tumbled down to 4th place by the time all was said and done in the mountains, unable to keep up with Froome, Quintana, and Rodriguez on the steep summits: the relentless assaults by the young Colombian Quintana and seasoned veteran Rodriguez nabbed them spots on the podium beside the man who dominated the Tour almost from start to finish, Chris Froome. The final results looked like this:

    1. Christopher Froome (UK) Sky Procycling | 83:56:40

    2. Nairo Alexander Quintana Rojas (Col) Movistar Team | +0:04:20

    3. Joaquim Rodriguez Oliver (Spa) Katusha | +0:05:04

    4. Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Team Saxo-Tinkoff | +0:06:27

    5. Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Team Saxo-Tinkoff | +0:07:27

    6. Bauke Mollema (Ned) Belkin Pro Cycling Team| +0:11:42

    7. Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Astana Pro Team | +0:12:17

    8. Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Movistar Team | +0:15:26

    9. Daniel Navarro Garcia (Spa) Cofidis, Solutions Credits | +0:15:52

    10. Andrew Talansky (USA) Garmin-Sharp | +0:17:39

    Peter Sagan won the Points Classification, and Nairo Quintana won both the King of the Mountains polka dots and the white jersey of the best young rider.

    Froome Dominates and Young Guns Step Up

    Starting with the obvious, Froome was simply head and shoulders above the competition. The 100th edition of the Tour de France was very exciting to watch, but the fiercest competition was for the other two spots on the podium: Froome’s hold on the top was basically unassailable. He jumped well ahead early in the Pyrenees, solidified his position with stellar time trialing, and held on through the Alps despite vicious assaults from Nairo Quintana and Joaquim Rodriguez. His teammate Richie Porte showed rare talent as well, and together they were able to overpower the competition on the summit finishes. Porte gave everything he had for Froome’s victory, gladly sacrificing his own top 10 aspirations for the cause, and I fully believe he could have been on the podium had he not done so: he went so hard leading Froome up stage 8’s climb that he was exhausted on stage 9, and he chose not to contest stage 17’s time trial so as to save energy to lead Froome through the Alps. The word is that he’ll be given team leadership at one of the other two Grand Tours, and I believe that if he focuses on his position rather than a teammate’s, he’s more than capable of a Grand Tour win.

    QuintanaWhile Froome’s lead was never really in doubt, a number of young riders achieved other immense successes at the 100th Tour de France. The festivities started and ended with Marcel Kittel winning stages. His final tally was four stage wins, and he beat Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel in flat sprints more than once. After years of dominance from the Manx Missile, who had never been beaten on the Tour’s final day, Kittel’s emergence at age 25 promises to give cycling fans a real show of speed for the next several years. At age 23, Peter Sagan dominated the points competition in a manner similar to Froome’s dominance of the general classification. And of course, Colombian prodigy Nairo Quintana arrived loudly and clearly, adding a stage win, 2nd overall, the young rider’s jersey, and the King of the Mountains jersey to his resume. What a year he has had, winning the Tour of the Basque Country in style (beating the likes of Alberto Contador and Richie Porte in the final day’s time trial to take the win) and now this. His team gave most of its support to Alejandro Valverde for the first two weeks of the race; with full support, if Quintana can improve his time trial and his attacking strategy, he is more than capable of repeating or even bettering this performance in the future, as he isn’t even close to hitting his prime. Andrew Talansky clawed his way back after a day of suffering in the heat of the Pyrenees early on and found himself in the General Classification Top 10 when the peloton finally rolled over the finish line in Paris, good enough for second in the young rider’s competition. Michal Kwiatkowski finished in the top 10 of six separate stages with varying profiles, and he managed to nab 11th place overall in the Tour. Surely, in a few years, he could be a top 10 favorite here, or a favorite for the points classifications of the Vuelta or Giro, where points aren’t split up to favor the sprinters over other riders. He was one of the most complete riders in the Tour de France, with a rare combination of climbing, sprinting, and time trialing ability.

    There were many other great storylines to follow as well. For all the success Nairo Quintana had, his team struggled in the middle of the Tour. Alejandro Valverde fell out of contention for the podium on stage 13 due to mechanical problems on a windy day, and Rui Costa plummmeted, too, when Movistar sent him back to help Valverde. Undeterred, the team fought tooth and nail for glory over the last several days: Costa won not one but two stages, and Valverde powered his way back into the top 10 overall.

    Much was made of the contenders’ form heading into the first days of the Tour in Corsia. Of the four biggest favorites (Froome, Contador, Rodriguez, Valverde), only Froome seemed to be in impeccable form, having won every stage race he attempted this year except for Tirreno-Adriatico, in which he placed second to Giro winner Vincenzo Nibali. Contador, on the other hand was only so-so all year long, prompting questions about his ability to peak in time. Rodriguez had a strong spring and then struggled in the Dauphine. Valverde also had a strong spring and wasn’t great in the Dauphine. As it turned out, starting on form made all the difference for Froome, as it was his first real mountain day that put him virtually out of reach. Contador, meanwhile, never did really round into old form; 4th isn’t anything to sneeze at, but he could never really keep up with the top 3 riders in the race. Joaquim Rodriguez steadily improved as the Tour went on, chipping away at an early deficit to the other contenders and improving his position in the Alps. Valverde will be left wondering what might have been had he not suffered some very bad luck on stage 13; he finished ahead of Contador on both Alpine summit finishes and his stages 8 and 11 had originally given him an impressive chunk of time on Purito and around half a minute on Contador. In any case, Froome has been dominant all year and continued his dominance into the Tour, Rodrigez and Valverde showed good form earlier in the year and were able to maintain a high level and then peak again for the Tour, and Contador never showed his old levels of ability earlier this year and was unable to round into form this July.

    Other riders who impressed? Roman Kreuziger, Bauke Mollema, and Jakob Fuglsang. All 28 or younger. Kreuziger managed a 5th place despite working for his teammate Alberto Contador. Bauke Mollema was as high as 2nd as late as stage 14, but he faded a bit as the Tour crested more and more summits—still, he adds a 6th overall to a resume that already includes a 4th overall and the points classification at the Vuelta. Jakob Fuglsang was steady throughout the race despite having very little team support compared to the other riders who finished in the top 8—given the kind of help from Astana that his teammate Vincenzo Nibali gets, Fuglsang could take on the Giro or Vuelta with podium aspirations while the Shark heads to the Tour. With Rodrigez, Valverde, and Contador all on the wrong side of 30, these guys could be hanging around Grand Tour top 10s a lot in years to come.

    On the other hand, it would be an oversight not to mention BMC’s terrible three weeks. Despite their massive team budget, the red and black squad managed no stage wins and didn’t place anyone in even the top 20 overall. For some reason, team management expected Cadel Evans to perform at a high level despite the fact that he entered the race only a month after finishing a grueling Giro. His Tour was a flop–he lost a lot of time on stages 8 and 11 and then faded badly after. Tejay van Garderen fell out of contention early, finishing over twelve minutes behind Froome on stage 8, apparently due to an inability to cope with heat in the Pyrenees. Philippe Gilbert proved again that if your form wasn’t good heading into the Tour, it’s probably not going to magically appear when you get there. His best finish was 5th on stage 3. In the wake of so much team failure, BMC sports director John Lelangue has just quit his job.

    Edvald Boasson Hagen, Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Jean-Christophe Peraud, and others were forced to abandon after suffering various serious injuries. Peraud broke his collarbone on an early morning recon ride of stage 17’s time trial course when he was still in the top 10 overall: he started the race that day anyway, only crash and fall on the same side, one of the more cringe-worthy moments of the Tour. Hopefully they will all recover quickly.

    And to end positively? Daniel Navarro went from 20th overall and more than twenty-three minutes behind Froome after stage 15 to 8th overall by the time the peloton rode into Paris, thanks to a few breakaway successes and a good ride up the Semnoz. What a climb up the leaderboard! Jens Voigt, age 41, treated us to what may have been the last Tour de France breakaway attack of his career. Peter Sagan gave chanting fans what they wanted time and again with his trademark wheelie-popping, even doing it without hands on occasion. And to showcase a little globalization, a South African, Daryl Impey, wore the yellow jersey from stage 6 to stage 8 before he handed it over to Chris Froome, who was himself, of course, born in Africa.

    The Tour de France may be cycling’s biggest race, but the 2013 season still has yet to present the third Grand Tour, the Vuelta a Espana, as well as the final Monument Classic, the Giro di Lombardia, and the World Championship race, in addition to a number of other major events on the calendar. This Saturday will showcase not one but TWO WorldTour races, with the start of the Tour de Pologne, and the single-day Clasica de San Sebastian. Many of the same riders you saw in the Tour de France will be targetting these races to come, as will some of the sports biggest names who skipped the Tour this year, names like Bradley Wiggins, Vincenzo Nibali, and Fabian Cancellara. To summarize: keep watching! There are a number of big events right around the corner!

    -Dane Cash

    Photos by Natalie Marchant and Tom Ducat-White.

  • Tour de France 2013 Day 19: Where We Stand After Seventeen Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 18-21

    Top10ChasersDay 19: The Finale Is Here

    Stages 15, 16, and 17 showcased some awesome cycling. After a Sagan-led breakaway took the intermediate sprint early in the day, the heavy hitters caught up with them as the road started going up, and Sky’s dynamic duo laid waste to the best climbers in the world on the way up. By the time Porte pulled off, few were left to contest the day, and soon it was a battle royale between Froome and the young challenger Nairo Quintana. Quintana made a brave effort, but Froome matched every attack and then dropped him. The yellow jersey winner finished first, and in the process, he gained back much of what time he had lost to the other favorites in the crosswinds a few days before. Purito Rodriguez zoomed past Contador on the slopes to take fourth, crossing the line with an impressive Mikel Nieve (who is now the only guy focusing solely on the KoM competition that actually has a shot) to show that his form has arrived. Most of the other contenders for the top 10 of General Classification rolled in close together, though this was the stage that finally ended any hopes past winners Cadel Evans and Andy Schleck had of finishing among those ten. Lotto Belisol’s Bart de Clercq deserves a mention for finishing 11th, ahead of some big names like Kwiatkowski and Dan Martin.

    Stage 16 was predictably unpredictable, a day for the breakaway, and as usual, many of the big breakaway types jumped and many didn’t do anything at all (I’m looking at you, Gerrans, Clarke, and Chavanel). Rui Costa, whose GC hopes were smashed when Movistar sent him back to (fruitlessly) help Valverde back when said team leader was getting gapped by the peloton in the crosswinds, got into the break and, once there, realized that he was easily the best man in the best form in the bunch. He attacked on the final climb and stayed away for the win, well-earned. But there was also some real action going on further back in the race, where Katusha attacked on the same climb when they reached it several minutes later. They were matched by a group with most of the big contenders, but they left behind the likes of Laurens Ten Dam, Jakob Fuglsang, Michal Kwiatkowski, Dan Martin, Jean-Christophe Peraud, and Michael Rogers for a final gap of about a minute.

    Stage 17 threatened to be extremely dangerous, what with a technical descent and a nasty, rainy forecast, but for the most part, the big names emerged unscathed, except for Jean-Christophe Peraud, who fractured his collar bone in a recon ride crash, raced anyway, and then crashed and fell onto the same side during the time trial, forcing him to abandon. Froome won the day rather predictably, but Contador wasn’t off by much, and (of the potential podium contenders) neither were Quintana, Kreuziger, or Joaquim Rodriguez. Unfortunately for him and Dutch fans everywhere, Bauke Mollema, typically a very good time trialist, finished a full two minutes down on Alberto Contador, with whom he had been vying for second place. The Dutch rider slides into fourth following the bad day.

    Heading into the Tour’s big three Alpine stages, Froome has a gap of over four and a half minutes on Contador and Kreuziger, who themselves have roughly two minutes on Mollema and Quintana, with Rodriguez half a minute back from that. It is hard to see any other riders than these making it onto the General Classification podium in Paris.

    Stage 18: Gap > Alpe-d’Huez | 172.5km | Summit Finish

    The long-awaited double climb of Alpe-d’Huez is finally here. The peloton will take on an early Cat 2, and then a Cat 3 before the feed station, and then the Category 2 Col d’Ornon and a descent to the intermediate sprint, before they finally begin the steep slopes of Alpe-d’Huez. After reaching the summit, the riders must climb the short but steep Col de Sarenne, a Cat 2, before strapping in for a steep, dangerous descent. After almost 30km of mostly downhill roads, the riders must climb Alpe-d’Huez one more time. A brutal day, for sure, and one that will offer many opportunities for attacks to stick and gaps to form. Team Sky will face relentless attacks from Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff, and down a few men, they may struggle to control the race. Contador and Joaquim Rodriguez have both had a very strong three days in the saddle, and after disappointing Dauphiné’s from both, it seems the form is finally there. Contador’s second-in-command Roman Kreuziger has yet to falter by his leader’s side as well. Meanwhile, Bauke Mollema seems to be fading at the worst possible time. After a valiant first two weeks, I do not know how much Belkin has left in the tank.

    Alpe

    Froome has had fun winning three stages this Tour while he ups his lead overall, but I think he knows he shouldn’t take his eyes off the real prize, which may mean finally riding a bit more conservatively on this dangerous stage. At nearly seven minutes down, Quintana would need to pick up serious ground to pass Froome for the yellow jersey. Ergo, Froome will be more concerned about Contador and Kreuziger than the young Movistar rider, and that favors Quintana attacking for the stage. Don’t be surprised to see another climbing specialist let out ahead as well, Mikel Nieve. Nieve crested Ax 3 Domaines sixth and Mont Ventoux third: he is quite capable of handling the long slogs toward the sky, and far more so than Quintana, he doesn’t pose a threat to Froome. If Nieve can stay on the right wheels and make it through the first 160 km of the race with the pack, he has a fine shot of getting up to the summit finish first or second. Or maybe Froome doesn’t give anyone any breathing room, as has been his M.O. throughout the Tour so far. In any case, I don’t know that I see Rodriguez or Valverde liking the long ascents as best fitting their abilities. Kreuziger might be well positioned to attack on the Sarenne and then fly down the mountainside with his best-of-the-bunch descending skills, but he has stuck close by Contador’s side so far this year, so such an attack would only be called for as a strategic move to put pressure on Froome rather than as a way for Kreuziger himself to advance, and it seems likely that such a move would get swallowed up on the final ascent.

    VeloHuman Favorites

    1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Alberto Contador | 4. Roman Kreuziger

    Watch Out For

    Mikel Nieve

    Stage 19: Le Bourg-d’Oisans > Le Grand-Bornand | 204.5km | High Mountains

    With two Hors Categorie climbs in the first half of the day and then three more categorized climbs before the finish (a Cat 2 and then a pair of Cat 1s), stage 19 could completely ruin the top 10 hopes of any rider whose legs are starting to falter at this stage of the Tour. Those feeling fresh will surely put the hammer down early to weaken the field quickly. Laurens Ten Dam has been a real surprise so far this Tour, but this is the sort of day that could crack his admirable resolve. Roman Kreuziger and Daniel Martin are both climbers who have had great career successes on single day races and short stage races (each taking an Ardennes Classic this spring), but days like this after nearly three weeks of racing are the sort of thing that separate the classics guys from the winners of the Grand Tours. Given his unassailable dominance so far, I think Froome will pass the long test. With a strong team around him, Contador should be right there with the captain of Team Sky at the end of the day, and I do think Kreuziger will be there with him. In fact, the race’s finish, over 10 km of steep descent, favors the aggressive Czech rider. If he makes it to the final climb and is able to perform his duties as Contador’s lieutenant most of the way up, Kreuziger could use his Ardennes-proven talent for sharp attacks and then descend at full speed for the win. With that descent, there is also potential for a very select group to finish together, and a sprint among climbers is exactly what Alejandro Valverde will aim for to at least salvage something from his unfortunate Tour de France experience. Joaquim Rodriguez, too, would surely love to take a shot at it, either near the summit of the final climb, or in the final sprint. If Kwiatkowski is still here, it’s a great last few hundred meters for him, but I don’t know that he’ll be able to hang on all day without much of a team for help. Gaps are likely to be small or nonexistent, so if a group of heavy hitters reaches the final climb together, I imagine Froome will be content to roll over the line with them rather than attempting to push his luck descending or sprinting, which are not his forte.

    VeloHuman Favorites

    1. Roman Kreuziger | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez | 4. Chris Froome

    Stage 20: Annecy > Mont Semnoz | 125km | Summit Finish

    At only 125 kilometers, the penultimate stage of the Tour will be ridden lightning fast. Climbers who have yet to make their marks with a stage win will be attacking and counter-attacking like mad here, and the GC types will be focused on making it through without losing ground in the chaos of six categorized climbs, including an HC summit finish. I would imagine we will again see Mikel Nieve trying to get ahead for mountain points, but there will likely be a number of chasers for every attack. Anyone close to the podium, especially Alberto Contador, who doesn’t like to settle for second place, will have until the final summit to attack the man in yellow. Lots of action, but I see Froome cresting the summit before anyone. It’s the last climber’s stage of the Tour, and Froome won’t need to worry about storing energy for any more Alpine climbs. I imagine any long-range attacks from lesser riders will be reeled in by those higher up the ladder who don’t want to lose their places, and I imagine the legitimate volleys from those challenging for the podium will ultimately be answered by Froome, who has just been so much better than his competitors so far. And if the other contenders have managed to close the gap by this stage? Well what better place than a summit finish for the Tour’s best diesel climber to make his final statement? He reached the top of Ax 3-Domaines first, he reached the top of Ventoux first, and with almost thirty kilometers of downhill racing leading into the final climb to catch any breakaways, I imagine Froome will reach the top of the Semnoz first as well, though I expect everything Contador and Quintana have to give on the way up.

    VeloHuman Favorites

    1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Alberto Contador

    Stage 21: Versailles > Paris | 133.5km | Flat

    An evening finish in Paris will be a lovely sight. The route showcases many of France’s biggest tourist attractions (Versailles and the Champs-Elysses cap off a Tour that has already visited Mont Saint-Michel and the Alps). After so many days struggling over mountains, Mark Cavendish will look to pick up his fifth win on the Champs-Elysses, but challengers are nipping at his heels. Marcel Kittel beat him in a pure sprint earlier this Tour, and Greipel will have his say as well. Sagan is not quite as fast in a drag race, but surely he, too, will direct his determination toward this finish. Despite his loss to Kittel in an earlier sprint this Tour, it’s hard to see past Cavendish yet, here where he has never been beaten, though either one of the German pair would not surprise me if they made it to the line first. Forced to choose, I’ll take Cavendish, but I’m far less confident that he will win the day than I am that Britain’s Chris Froome will be not far behind him, wearing yellow.

    VeloHuman Favorites

    1. Mark Cavendish | 2. Marcel Kittel | 3. Andre Greipel

    -Dane Cash

     Photos by Marianne Casamance and stintje.

  • Tour de France 2013 Day 10: Where We Stand After Nine Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 10-14

    MontStMichel

    Day 10: Yellow Jersey Battle Shaping Up

    In very broad strokes, stages 8 and 9 were what we expected: a select group of riders gained major ground in stage 8, and nobody picked up much time in stage 9, though a few riders fell out of contention.

    But as far as how all that actually happened, and to what extent, the two days in the Pyrenees were quite surprising, and quite decisive for a number of riders. On the first day, Sky kept a impressive pace throughout the day, and didn’t panic when star riders like Nairo Quintana launched attacks on the slopes. The train just chugged along, dropping guys like Tejay van Garderen out of GC contention. Eventually, all attackers were reeled in, and on the final climb, Richie Porte put the hammer down like an Australian John Henry (sorry for all the railroad-oriented language) and laid waste to some big names. In the end, it was just Porte and Froome riding together with all other challengers in the rear view mirror, and then Froome swung out ahead of Porte and went off alone for the victory, with his captain riding in behind him some fifty seconds later. Valverde and Mollema came in next, over a minute down on Froome, and then Laurens Ten Dam and a surprising Mikel Nieve. Kreuziger, Contador, and Quintana were all 1:45 down on Froome, and Rodriguez, Costa, Martin, Talansky, and Fuglsang rolled in over two minutes behind the Sky leader. But things went well for these guys compared to Cadel Evans and Dani Moreno, who lost over four minutes, and Pinot and van Garderen, who found themselves out of contention for GC, six and twelve minutes back, respectively. A truly decisive day, and one from which yellow jersey favorites not named Chris Froome will have a lot of trouble recovering. Valverde mitigated his losses, but Contador and Rodriguez will have trouble taking back seconds, especially with a flat time trial coming up this week. To those wondering if Andy Shleck is finally back, he did manage to cross the line only three and a half minutes down.

    Stage 9 was a day filled with attacks, and the madness hit Sky hard. Peter Kennaugh crashed into undergrowth beside the road and left the team down an important domestique. When Garmin and Movistar started attacking like crazy on every ascent, Sky found themselves struggling to reel in the constant barrage from the likes of Ryder Hesjedal and Nairo Quintana. Richie Porte, who clearly had little left in the tank after so much energy expended the day prior, lost touch and Sky was unable to give him as much support as they might have wanted. He tried chasing, but was ultimately called off the endeavor, proving a crucial difference between last year’s Wiggins-Froome duo and this year’s Froome-Porte duo: Porte is 100% commited to Froome’s victory, and everything else is secondary. Porte was integral to Froome’s huge time gap the day before, and he paid for it in stage 9. Still, Chris Froome was unbroken by the constant attempted breakaways, and by the final Cat 1 climb, a select group of strong climbers was riding together with no one ahead of them. Then, Garmin’s Dan Martin jumped ahead and did what he does best, gunning uphill toward the summit. Jakob Fuglsang joined him, and together, they descended skillfully for thirty kilometers, holding onto a few tens of seconds of a lead. Martin outsprinted Fuglsang for the stage win. Still, in terms of GC, they finished with only twenty seconds of a gap between themselves and the Froome group, which included all of the big favorites (among them Cadel Evans and even Andy Schleck, who sits in a somewhat surprising 15th place)… except for Richie Porte, who came in around eighteen minutes down with broken-ribbed Ryder Hesjedal. With the second-in-command’s chance at the podium done, Sky may have to alter strategy somewhat now that Porte going off the front won’t scare anyone for GC.

    Stage 10: Saint-Gildas-des-Bois > Saint-Malo 197km Flat

    It’s a day for the sprinters, with a Cat 4 climb, but otherwise, not much to break up the pack. It looks like a perfect day for the big boys, Cavendish, Greipel, and Kittel. Hard to pick from among these guys. Greipel seems a solid choice for the leadout friendly finish.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Andre Greipel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. Marcel Kittel

    Stage 11: Avranches > Mont-Saint-Michel | 33km | ITT

    An incredibly scenic time trial that will provide plenty of helicopter shots… It’s flat, but fortunately for Contador et al, it’s relatively short, meaning it will be difficult for Chris Froome to pick up too much time on his climbing-oriented rivals. Tony Martin seems to be recovered from his stage 1 crash, and if so, he’s the favorite to win the day, though Froome winning wouldn’t surprise anyone. If Tejay van Garderen has recovered from his curious case of being terrible, he should challenge for a top spot as well. Of the GC types, Contador and Valverde are both decent time trialists, and so are Kwiatkowsi and Fuglsang and of course Cadel Evans. Nairo Quintana has surprising ability for all his “climbing” specialist label. On the other hand, Joaquim Rodriguez, Daniel Martin, and Laurens Ten Dam will all be doing their best to keep their losses slight. Tipping a non-GC name in a Grand Tour time trial can be difficult, simply because some guys take it easy in order to rest for their domestique duties: Tanel Kangert seriously let the VeloHuman Procycling (fantasy) squad down in the Giro when he decided to use the stage 18 time trial as a recovery ride to best prepare to help Nibali in the mountains. I would imagine that Richie Porte would have an excellent day, but he has shown that he’s willing to put his own dreams aside for Froome. Edvald Boasson Hagen might dig this stage, too, it being a short TT, something he’s in which he is quite capable of performing. Sylvain Chavanel, Peter Velits, Svein Tuft, and Cameron Meyer are other guys who could place highly. My pick to surprise is Movistar’s Jonathan Castroviejo. He’s nowhere close in GC so who knows, but he has the ability to time trial with the best of them.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Tony Martin | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Peter Velits

    Watch Out For:

    Jonathan Castroviejo

    Stage 12: Fougères > Tours | 218km | Flat

    Another flat day, and I am running out of things to say about these sorts of stages. It’s a rather long stage, but there are only small bumps to keep things interesting. I’d imagine it’ll be the usual suspects at the finish line, and I’m hard-pressed to pick one over the other but more often than not I’d take Cavendish on a garden-variety flat stage.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Andre Greipel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. Marcel Kittel

    Stage 13: Tours > Saint-Amand-Montrond | 173km | Flat

    There is a Cat 4 climb early, and then an uncategorized but surprisingly steep little hill only a few kilometers from the finish. Perhaps things will get interesting if Gilbert is sick of all the “when will he win?” talk and decides to attack on the climb? Probably not. It is likely that everyone makes it to the mass sprint, but I like Cavendish, Sagan, and Kristoff most here.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Mark Cavendish | 2. Peter Sagan | 3. Alexander Kristoff

    Stage 14: Saint-Pourçain-sur-Sioule > Lyon | 191km | Medium Mountains

    With seven categorized climbs (five Cat 4s and a pair of 3s), this stage might have breakaway written all over it if it weren’t for Peter Sagan and his pack of Cannondale supporters. As effectively as they handled stage 7, it’s hard to pick against them here, though even if they do manage to reel in any early breakaways, a pair of Cat 4s less than 20 km from the finish could be a springboard for the always hungry Sylvain Chavanel or Gilbert. If the pack finishes together minus the Greipel-types, Sagan seems the easy favorite, with Edvald Boasson Hagen and true all-rounder Michal Kwiatkowski (assuming he goes for it now that he is placed so highly in GC) as other possible contenders. It could be a good day for Orica-GreenEdge’s Simon Gerrans or Daryl Impey to jump ahead late, as well.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Peter Sagan | 2. Edvald Boasson Hagen | 3. Michal Kwiatkowski

    Watch Out For:

    Daryl Impey, Simon Gerrans

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by schlaeger.

  • Tour de France 2013 Day 7: Where We Stand After Seven Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 8-9

    Ax3Crop

    Day 7: Into the Mountains

    There was a lot of talk about the grueling first week of this year’s Tour de France, and while Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel will surely tell you that today was more grueling than they would have liked, the GC riders did not have much trouble handling the hills or winds in Corsica or southern France. The only casualty so far who was a legitimate GC contender is the unfortunate Jurgen Van Den Broeck, who abandoned due to crash-related injuries. Ryder Hesjedal has a broken rib from a crash, but he hasn’t shown signs of giving up yet.

    Stage 4’s team time trial went almost as expected: Teams Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Sky were in the top 3, and Movistar, Garmin, and Saxo-Tinkoff had fine days. But the glory went to Orica-GreenEdge, who managed to cross the finish line with the fastest time… by less than one second. The feat put Simon Gerrans, winner of stage 3, into the yellow jersey.

    Stage 5 was a bit hilly, but the sprint teams did not have too much trouble hanging on. As expected, Kittel didn’t factor, but Cavendish and Greipel were there, and the Manxman nabbed his first win of the Tour.

    Stage 6 was a flat affair, and despite high winds, the pack finished together. Unfortunately Cavendish went down in a crash as the day was nearing its close, and while he made it back to the group and into the finishing sprint, he couldn’t match Andre Greipel, who took his first win of the Tour.

    Again, as the last VeloHuman update had anticipated, stage 7 proved too much for the flatland sprinters. A break tried to escape, but Sagan’s team Cannondale made up for their not-so-great performances in previous stages by leading the peloton for quite an amazing chunk of time, and still had the energy to catapult Sagan to his first Tour victory (albeit, with a bit of nifty handling from the Slovakian to get onto John Degenkolb’s wheel and then power past hiim) after three second place finishes. After a week, Sagan is quite comfortably in the lead for the points classification.

    Stage 8: Castres > Ax 3 Domaines | 195km | Summit Finish

    Finally, a stage with some serious GC implications. After many flat kilometers, the peloton will be forced to tackle a Hors Categorie climb and then chug up a Cat 1 summit finish. At least, we have a stage that will end with time gaps between riders. It’s not the most grueling mountain stage, thanks to the basically 100 km of flatness, but it will force the yellow jersey contenders to duke it out over the last several kilometers, and by the end of the day, we’ll probably see a few of the expected contenders exposed as pretenders. It will be an opportunity for Alberto Contador to show that he’s rounded into form and capable of providing his trademark attacks, and Cadel Evans will need to inspire his team’s confidence making it up the last summit with the leaders: I doubt BMC will let Tejay tow the veteran rider up many more mountains this year. With a relatively short Cat 1 finish, it looks like a great day for Alejandro Valverde, with his stable of Movistar mountain goats (Costa, Quintana, and Amador) to provide strong support. With their strategy of attacking from every angle in mind, Garmin may fire off a shot of Dan Martin or Andrew Talansky. But the boys in black (Sky) will come to the fight with all their firepower, and the recent results to answer any questions of form. Froome has shown time and again that’s up for it, and now is a good time to start his quest for the GC lead. With a better TTT than any of the big contenders, a stage win here could put him in yellow.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Chris Froome | 2. Alejandro Valverde

    Stage 9: Saint-Girons > Bagnères-de-Bigorre | 168.5km | High Mountains

    Five categorized climbs (a Cat 2, and then four Cat 1s), but a long downhill finish: the 30km descent might make it tough for anyone to escape. It’s a very tough day, and moreso than last stage, scaling so many summits might weed out any pretenders for GC, but that finish makes this stage more of one not to lose. Joaquim Rodriguez had a forgettable Dauphine, and Katusha will be looking for him to show up over so many kilometers of up and down. This looks like the perfect day for the Sky train to make its best attempt at controlling the bunch, while a group of dedicated polka dot jersey seekers goes for the succession of points-offering mountains. We’ll probably see a lot of Pierre Rolland early in the day, but any attacks will be hard-pressed to stay alive for the long descent. If the train doesn’t roll over the line in succession, this stage could come down to the GC contender who most wants to pick up a stage win regardless of the time gaps he might pick up: sounds like a day for an enterprising hard-charger with climbing legs, like Ryder Hesjedal (if he’s capable), Cadel Evans (if he’s capable), or Alejandro Valverde. Until we know more about the form of the top guys, it’s hard to say who will be there at the end. Sky seems like another good bet for now.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Chris Froome | 2. Richie Porte

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by Marceau R.

  • Tour de France 2013 Pre-race Outlook

    Froome

    All-Rounder Roundup

    Most observers seem to consider this Tour as a showdown between Chris Froome and Alberto Contador. For every news article fawning over Chris Froome’s dominance in basically every race he’s entered this year, there is a commentator shaking his head and reminding us that Contador is Contador, and on cycling’s biggest stage, he’ll make everyone forget the minor races he didn’t care to win. And that really is the storyline: Froome has podiumed in Grand Tours in the past, at 28 he’s just hitting his prime, and this year he has been unstoppable; Contador, on the other hand, hasn’t been the superstar he is expected to be just yet this year… but he is the same Contador who has won all three Grand Tours, including the Vuelta in 2012.

    His underwhelming results so far this year make Contador very difficult to judge. There is no question that Froome and the Sky locomotive are ready to party come Saturday. Contador has a very powerful team to back him up (Roman Kreuziger took Amstel Gold earlier this year and was very strong in the Tour de Suisse, finishing on the podium), and if he shows the same form he has shown in the past, it could go down to the wire, with Froome taking the lead early thanks to a pair of time trials, and Contador fighting to take back seconds in a brutal final week in the mountains.

    But as dominant as Contador was in the past, I just don’t see the evidence that he still has that same engine he once had. It’s not like he’s been bad so far this year; he’s just been okay. Sure, he could peak right on time, and could very well win the race, but from what we’ve seen so far, Froome is the rightful favorite heading into Corsica… and while I wouldn’t be surprised if Contador wins the yellow, I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Contador fall to third behind Froome’s friend Richie Porte. Like Froome, Porte has been on fire this year, winning Paris-Nice and getting onto the podium in Pais Vasco and the Critérium du Dauphiné. His best Grand Tour result to date? 7th in the 2010 Giro. But this looks like it could be the year where he makes it onto a Grand Tour podium; given the team leader role in a few big stage races, he showed quite a talent against the clock, but also seemed more comfortable than ever climbing up the steepest cols with the rest of the GC contenders. As Froome’s lieutenant in the Critérium du Dauphiné, he seemed quite capable of performing double duty as a domestique and a GC man in his own right, and with questions dogging Contador’s performance heading into the Tour, it’s hard to see past Sky’s 1-2 killer punch. It seemed to work out well for them last year…

    There are quite a few other big names to cover, some of whom I think will do well, others who I think might have trouble. Alejandro Valverde is one I expect to perform. He has Nairo Quintana and Rui Costa as lieutenants… not a bad setup. With a team like that and a resume of eight Grand Tour top 10s (including a Vuelta win in 2009), he’s got the credentials. Like Contador, he sat out for two years thanks to a doping ban, and then returned with a strong Vuelta performance, where he took second to Alberto, and also took the points jersey. He showed good form all spring, too, getting on the podium at Liege and Amstel Gold. He wasn’t great at the Critérium du Dauphiné, but he was better than Contador, and much better than another big name I also think can push for a top 10 or even a top 5 at the Tour, Joaquim Rodriguez, who was a disappointing 16th at the Dolphin. Perhaps it was only a hiccup; he took second behind Daniel Martin at both Liege and Cataluyna, and looked fine at Tirreno-Adriatico, where he won a stage and took 5th. And if there has ever been a Tour to suit the climbing legend who doesn’t TT particularly well, this one is it.

    On the flip side is 2011 winner Cadel Evans, who comes to the Tour with multiple storylines. After a grueling Giro, can he continue to perform at a high level in a Grand Tour just a month later? And what about Tejay van Garderen, who made Evans look old and tired last Tour? Many observers bet against Evans at the Giro this year after his 7th place in the 2012 Tour de France, and he managed to make it onto the podium. Shouldn’t I be wary of doubting him at the Tour then? Maybe, but there are reasons aplenty. First, giving the Giro your all and then turning around and putting in a star performance at the Tour de France just doens’t really happen anymore. Evans is 36, not exactly an age that inspires confidence in his endurance. Moreover, he seemed to fade a little towards the end of the Giro, and though he podiumed, both Bradley Wiggins and Ryder Hesjedal abandoned. So I just don’t see it happening for Cadel this Tour.

    CadelandTejay

    His teammate Tejay van Garderen is another story. The 25 year old American took 5th overall and the young rider classification last year. He was 4th at Paris-Nice this year, and he finally won a pro race for the first time at the Tour of California, where he looked worlds ahead of the competition. If the story ended there, I’d say van Garderen was a strong choice for the top 5. I still think he’s a strong choice, but unfortunately 1) BMC seems to be backing Evans again, and 2) van Garderen was only so-so at the Tour de Suisse, and didn’t inspire much confidence in what is considered a strong suit for him, time trialing. I think BMC will give over to van Garderen earlier this year than they did last year, and I think his form is probably fine (7th at the Suisse still isn’t anything to sneeze at), so I’m tipping him as another strong contender for the top 5 again this year.

    Team Belkin (formerly Blanco) apparently got tired of waiting for Robert Gesink to live up to his potential, and named Bauke Mollema team leader for the Tour de France. Mollema is coming off a strong Tour de Suisse (second overall and a stage win), and with a good team of GC-focused riders behind him, I think he’ll be a strong performer. His 2012 was rather disappointing, but he has had a nice year so far.

    Garmin-Sharp brings another strong team to the Tour this year, with a three-pronged attack of Ryder Hesjedal, Dan Martin, and Andrew Talansky at the helm and some strong veterans in support roles. Hesjedal failed to defend his 2012 Giro win this year, abandoning the race, and then he crashed out of the Tour de Suisse. He’s the only member of Garmin’s big three to even podium in a Grand Tour, but it’s hard to see past his lacking Palmares so far in 2013. Instead, I think Liège–Bastogne–Liège winner Dan Martin could be the best finisher of the three (and could definitely nab a stage win or two), in the midst of the best year of his racing life. In addition to his Monument win this year, Martin has podium finish in another Monument (Lombardia), a small collection of stage race overall wins, and a Vuelta stage to his name across his young career, but this will be the first time he’s taken on a Grand Tour in this sort of position, with GC aspirations. This year’s Tour should suit his climbing capabilities, but he’ll have to limit his losses on Stage 11. Time will tell. Andrew Talansky, riding in his first Tour de France, could certainly create some fireworks as well, though I think it may be a little early to tip him as a strong challenger for the overall.

    I don’t see another top 5 overall for Jurgen Van Den Broeck. Lotto-Belisol’s lineup doesn’t strike fear in anyone’s heart in the way that Sky, Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff do, and I think there a a few more hard-changing up-and-comers who could muscle him out of the top of hte leaderboard this year. It is hard to judge his form, as he has taken the “focus solely on the Tour” approach this year, with no WorldTour podium finishes to speak of so far.

    Nairo Quintana is a hot name heading into the Tour, fresh off an impressive Pais Vasco win (he also took a stage and the Points classification), and we know he certainly has the talent. In the Basque Country, he followed several days of dominant climbing with a surprising second place in the final day’s time trial, behind only Tony Martin, greatest TTer alive, and ahead of Porte and Contador. However, Quintana hasn’t raced since April (he’s been training back home) and he’ll at least start out riding for Valverde. I don’t know that the time is right to pick Quintana as a guy to mount a serious GC challenge, though it certainly wouldn’t surprise me if he did.

    This year’s parcours certainly suits another up-and-coming star, France’s Thibaut Pinot, who managed a 10th place and a stage win at last year’s Tour. He won’t have the dark horse’s advantage this year, he needs to improve against the clock, and he doesn’t have the team support of some of the other star contenders, but I could see another performance at the fringes of the top 10. He looked pretty good in the Tour de Suisse, managing a decent 4th.

    The Froome vs. Contador battle at the top, and the battle of names like Martin, Pinot, Quintana, and van Garderen vs. Valverde, Rodriguez, and Evans as challengers fills this Tour with storylines of old guard vs. up-and-comers. We should be in for some thrills as the untested set out to prove they have what it takes against the many decorated veterans in the peloton. I think the up-and-comers will have some success: I see Froome taking the overall win and a number of younger riders getting into the top 10 at the expense of some of the more well-known veterans.

    Sagan

    Stagehunters

    This year’s battle for green may be the biggest in years. Two years ago, the rules for the points classification were adjusted to favor the pure sprinters, and Mark Cavendish summarily won his first green in. Then, in 2012, an up-and-coming Slovakian rider named Peter Sagan set out on his first Tour de France journey, and proceeded to clean up the points classification, winning three stages and placing highly in a boatload more. This year’s Tour should have enough flat stages to make things very interesting, with plenty of opportunities for Cavendish to remain in the bunch until the final few hundred meters, at which point there is no one on Earth who is faster. He could win five or even six stages, if everything goes according to plan, and OPQS finally seems to have their leadout down, which bodes well for his chances. He certainly hasn’t seen his form decline since last year’s Tour, winning the points classification in May’s Giro d’Italia. Sagan will need to be on his game to nab as many hilly stages as he can, while remaining in contention on the pancake style stages–hanging on over the climbs in Corsica could be crucial, and making up extra points in intermediate sprints will be vital as well. He’ll also need to hope breakaways don’t rob him of stage wins in the later Medium Mountain stages where he might otherwise be capable of leading a group across the line. If it comes down to Cavendish vs. Sagan for green, and I think it will, I’d have to pick Sagan by a very small margin; it will probably be much closer than last year.

    Outside of those two favorites, Andre the Gorilla Greipel looks like Cavendish’s main rival on the flat sprints, but don’t count out Marcel Kittel, who has taken wins in Schelderprijs and in stages of a number of smaller stage races this year, even beating Cavendish and Greipel on occassion. The 25 year old comes to the Tour with a team totally dedicated to winning stages, and Kittel is their man on the flats. He’s probably a bit too limited and too third-fiddle to challenge for the green jersey, but he could certainly succeed in his hunt for a stage or two.

    Argos-Shimano’s other sprinter, John Degenkolb, is tough to judge going into the race. He took an awesome stage win in the Giro, but other than that, he’s achieved essentially zilch this year, after his unbelievable success last year, highlighted by five wins in the Vuelta. Argos will be behind him on any stage that Kittel can’t make it over the mountains, but he’ll want to prove that he has form as quickly as possible, so that his team doesn’t start to wonder if they should be working harder to get Kittel over the bumps.

    Other sprinters-who-can-climb include Matt Goss, Alexander Kristoff, and Edvald Boasson Hagen, in descending order of how much their teams care about their own stage-winning aspirations. Goss has GreenEdge’s full support as often as he can hang on over the bumps, but he’s been disappointing this year. I think he’s likely to rack up a bunch of points by taking minor placings in sprints, but he probably can’t beat Cav/Greipel/Kittel in a flat finish and he’ll be contending with Peter Sagan for the hillier stages. At the beginning of his still young career, it was thought that Goss had one of the best post-climb sprints in the sport, so we know that he was at least at one time capable of giving the best of the best a run for their money, but this year’s Tour is not one with much room for error. Alexander Kristoff is an exciting young rider who could also challenge Sagan for hillier stages, coming in ahead of Cannondale’s star on two sprint finishes in the Tour de Suisse (one of which he won). Eddy Boss is obviously one of the peloton’s most talented riders, but he won’t have nearly the support of many of these other names: Cannondale, OPQS, Argos-Shimano, and Orica-GreenEdge are at the Tour 100% focused on stage wins for their fast men, but EBH will be looking for his opportunities while playing domestique for Froome and Porte. Like Goss, he probably can’t pip any of the pure sprinters to the line, so he’ll have to race smart like he did at the Dauphiné (where he laid low for two stages and then showed off his superior handling skills on a hilly third stage, turning a sharp final corner before gunning it to the line) and maybe he can nab a Medium Mountain win if all goes according to plan.

    And of course, keep an eye out for the French riders, especially those sporting the colors of Cofidis, Europcar, and Sojasun, who will look for chances to make a statement at every opportunity. Breakaways and reduced sprints could see a lot of action from guys with dreams of stage glory in their home Grand Tour. Thomas Voeckler will certainly be most prominent of those hoping for breakaway wins (he will likely shoot for the polka dots again, as well), and he will face stiff competition from fellow countrymen and Orica GreenEdge’s Michael Albasini, Simon Clarke and Simon Gerrans, all of whom are capable of going for long distance wins in the hills.

    NOTE: I will be doing several “Where We Stand” updates throughout the Tour which will include stage picks for the upcoming days, including one on Day 0, tomorrow. More analysis to come!

    Predictions

    General Classification (Yellow Jersey)

    Winner: Chris Froome

    Podium: Alberto Contador, Richie Porte

    Other Strong Contenders: Alejandro Valverde, Bauke Mollema, Dan Martin, Tejay van Garderen, Joaquim Rodriguez

    Points Classification (Green Jersey)

    Winner: Peter Sagan

    Stages

    Stage 1: Porto-Vecchio > Bastia | 213km | Flat

    Stage 2: Bastia > Ajaccio | 156km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 3: Ajaccio > Calvi | 145.5km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 4: Nice > Nice | 25km | TTT

    Stage 5: Cagnes-sur-Mer > Marseille | 228.5 | Flat

    Stage 6: Aix-en-Provence > Montpellier | 176.5km | Flat

    Stage 7: Montpellier > Albi | 205.5km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 8: Castres > Ax 3 Domaines | 195km | Summit Finish

    Stage 9: Saint-Girons > Bagnères-de-Bigorre | 168.5km | High Mountains

    Stage 10: Saint-Gildas-des-Bois > Saint-Malo | 197km | Flat

    Stage 11: Avranches > Mont-Saint-Michel | 33km | ITT

    Stage 12: Fougères > Tours | 218km | Flat

    Stage 13: Tours > Saint-Amand-Montrond | 173km | Flat

    Stage 14: Saint-Pourçain-sur-Sioule > Lyon | 191km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 15: Givors > Mont Ventoux | 242.5km | Summit Finish

    Stage 16: Vaison-la-Romaine > Gap | 168km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 17: Embrun > Chorges | 32km | ITT

    Stage 18: Gap > Alpe-d’Huez | 172.5km | Summit Finish

    Stage 19: Le Bourg-d’Oisans > Le Grand-Bornand | 204.5km | High Mountains

    Stage 20: Annecy > Mont Semnoz | 125km | Summit Finish

    Stage 21: Versailles > Paris | 133.5km | Flat

    -Dane Cash

    Photos by Georges Ménager and Flowizm.