Episode 9: Amstel Gold Race + La Flèche Wallonne 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride presents a double helping of pre-race analysis for the Amstel Gold Race and La Flèche Wallonne.
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The peloton heads for the hills to take on the Amstel Gold Race and La Flèche Wallonne, the first two races in a trio of springtime one-day WorldTour events for the punchier types, and the Recon Ride is covering the talking points with a double pre-race show.
Photo by Johan Wieland.
After yet another surprise stage winner on the sixth day of the race (Sergey Chernetskiy won from the breakaway), it’s fitting that the Volta a Catalunya should close out with an unpredictable Stage 7. The 126.6-kilometer route will take the peloton in and around Barcelona, the Catalonian capital, and the profile is punctuated by eight trips up the Alt de Montjuïc, a 2 kilometer ascent with a 5.7% average gradient. After each climb comes a winding descent that leads back into the foot of the next journey upward, except for the final one, which runs right down to the finish line.
The up-and-down nature of the second half of the stage makes this a terrific day for the breakaway riders; the pack will have a hard time controlling the race with so many tempo changes and twists and turns near the finish. The eight-climbs-of-the-Montjuïc finale was used in both of the past two editions of the Volta and breakaway riders took it both times. Still, things are so tight on the overall leaderboard, and that the bonus seconds on offer here will be enticing for those looking to take this race out of Richie Porte’s hands; in short, as hard as it will be to maintain a hold on this race, many strong teams in the peloton will be motivated to do so.
Should the breakaway make it three straight years of success, look for riders like Tejay van Garderen, Tom Danielson, Maciej Paterski, and Jonathan Hivert to try to get one more day of hard work out of their legs after already putting in a lot of mileage off the front already. Giampaolo Caruso, far enough behind on GC that he might be given a bit of freedom, could be a good rider to watch here as well, on a parcours that suits his strong kick. Samuel Sánchez is another rider who is great on the short climbs and outside of GC contention; BMC has been working hard to get as much out of this race as possible, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them give Sánchez the green light to make a move if van Garderen is finally feeling a little winded after another difficult day. The stage also suits Enrico Gasparotto, Julien Simon, and Martin Elmiger.
Regardless of whether they’re fighting for stage honors, the GC riders will have their hands full here, with so much climbing and descending. If they do manage to reel in the breakaway and fight for the victory, an in-form Alejandro Valverde is again a good pick to win another day. Explosive Dan Martin and fast-finishing Rigoberto Urán and Wilco Kelderman are others on the GC leaderboard who are likely to battle it out here if it comes down to the overall race contenders.
1. Giampaolo Caruso | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Dan Martin
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis!
-Dane Cash
The Volta saw it’s first serious climbing battle on Stage 3, with Domenico Pozzovivo taking the day after jumping from a small lead group that included Richie Porte and Alberto Contador, among others, with Alejandro Valverde (who had taken a small spill along the technical route) and Chris Froome a bit behind. Stage 4 will likely be even more decisive, opening with a pair of Cat. 1s and then finishing with the one-two punch of an extra-long Special-Category Alt de la Crueta (21 kilometers at a 4.5% average gradient) and then the Cat. 1 La Molina summit finish (5.6 kilometers with a 5.8% average gradient).
Such an up-and-down day is likely to see consistent attacks. It won’t be easy to control this stage, making a breakaway stage victor possible; at the same time, there are all-important bonus seconds at the line, and several powerful teams hoping to take the top step of the Volta a Catalunya podium, meaning that the peloton will likely work hard to reel in anyone up the road.
As tough as this day will be, the final few kilometers are not terribly steep. It’s feasible that a small group reaches the top of La Molina together, which would give the advantage to the climbers with strong finishing kicks. Alejandro Valverde again comes to mind, though after racing Milano-Sanremo and heading straight to Spain to start in this race, it seems likely that at some point, Valverde might start to feel a bit of fatigue. He’s still a top favorite, but there is that question of whether or not he can keep chugging along at such a high level.
The Chris Froome vs. Alberto Contador battle may have given way to a Richie Porte vs. Alberto Contador battle, and Stage 4 will certain offer another battleground for the confrtontation. Porte has the stronger team, with almost all of Sky’s top climbers. With the number of options Sky has brought to this race, their odds of coming away with a result are pretty good. Then again, Alberto Contador at his best would be the best climber here (with the only rider who might rival him, Froome, still lacking just a bit of form after his illness at the beginning of the month). Contador is a shrewd tactician. The question is whether he can come up with the right strategy to beat this juggernaut Sky team.
Rigoberto Urán and Dan Martin may get another opportunity after they lost out to Domenico Pozzovivo on Stage 3. If they can stick with the lead group at the end of the day, they both have great finishing kicks to go for the victory at the line. The same is true for Wilco Kelderman, though it seems a bit less likely that Kelderman will survive this tough stage with the top favorites.
Pozzovivo will be another contender here, given the form he showed on Stage 3. He lacks the top speed to win a potential reduced sprint, meaning that he’ll need to jump from whatever group he is in to do win this stage, but he’s had a lot of success in doing just that. Fabio Aru, Andrew Talansky, and Esteban Chaves are other strong climbers who could be looking to go on the offensive.
1. Riche Porte | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Alberto Contador
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more Volta a Catalunya analysis!
A breakaway surprised the peloton on the opening stage of the Volta and threw the General Classification battle into chaos, and the GC-related surprises continued on Stage 2 when Alejandro Valverde outclassed several sprinters to take a win and valuable bonus seconds. A GC battle on Stage 3 of the Volta a Catalunya, however, would not come as a big surprise: with two Cat. 1 ascents inside the final half of the day, out of five total categorized climbs, this will be a stage that the climbers have marked in the roadbook. The Alt dels Ángels (Category 1, 6 kilometers at a 5.5% average gradient) is the uphill challenge to know here. The riders will crest it for the first time about halfway through the stage, then they’ll hit a Cat. 2, and then they’ll return to the Alt del Ángels once more for a second helping. From the top of that ascent it’s 13 km to the finish, and it’s downhill until there are less than 3 kilometers to go. Attacks launched on the Alt del Ángels could stick. The day’s climbing is not steep enough to be particularly intimidating to the marquee overall contenders, but the race situation after two stages could see the uphill specialists trying to make things happen on the slopes regardless.
With five categorized climbs punctuating the stage, a breakaway is possible here, though the GC teams are extra wary of ignoring the breakers after Stage 1. What’s more, bonus seconds are on the line in this Volta. With several of the top GC contenders sporting fast finishing kicks, the motivation in the peloton to reel in anyone off the front will be high.
One GC contender boasting a particularly speedy finishing kick is the rider who took stage 2. Alejandro Valverde is perfectly suited for this stage. He’s explosive enough on the climbs to try to break free, but a flat finish will make it likely that a small group of aggressors will cross the line here together, and Valverde is deadly sprinting out of a small group. As much of an advantage as the breakaway riders from Stage 1 have here in Catalunya, Vavlerde won’t go down without a fight.
Rigoberto Urán, Giampaolo Caruso, and Wilco Kelderman, all of them also sporting strong sprinting abilities to go with their climbing legs, will all be riders to watch in this scenario as well.
For many of the Cannondale-Garmin riders, these are home roads. This is an excellent profile for Dan Martin, who could be looking to launch an attack on the final ascent. His team knows how to make things interesting on days packed with climbs, and they have the firepower to do so—they might look to put on a show here similar to the one they put on in the 2013 Tour de France when Dan Martin won a mountainous Stage 9 after his team had been on the attack all day.
It’s not out of the question that Alberto Contador or Chris Froome try to make something happen on these climbs, but they aren’t quite steep enough or long enough to favor either of the former Tour de France winners. It won’t be easy for them to get clear here. In Froome’s case, a teammate may be better suited for this stage: Wout Poels tends to thrive on days with repeated not-inhumane climbs.
JJ Rojas, Enrico Gasparotto, and Julian Alaphilippe are among the sprintier types who at least have a shot of surviving. Meanwhile, breakaway-loving Thomas De Gendt probably has this parcours in mind as a perfect opportunity to try to take a long-range victory. He’s way down on GC and not a threat to the overall. Allowing him to make it to the line would not have the same implications for the peloton that their mistake on Stage 1 had. Amets Txurruka and the already-out-of-GC-contention Carlos Betancur are others to watch in a breakaway scenario.
1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Rigoberto Urán | 3. Dan Martin
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race!
-Dane Cash
Dan Martin closed out the year’s final Monument Classic with panache, jumping clear of a select bunch inside the last kilometer to deny some fast finishers in the group a chance to sprint for the win. New changes to Il Lombardia’s route certainly played their part in deciding the eventual winner of the race, with none of the many elite uphill specialists on the startlist able to get much separation on the climbs, but that didn’t deter the 27-year-old Irish star: he hung with the lead group and launched a brilliant late strike on the final flat to take the win while many of the of favorites simply watched him fly past. Martin may not have taken as many big results this season as he would have hoped, but his second Monument victory shouldn’t really come as a surprise, as he has flashed his great ability on numerous occasions throughout the year, only to be derailed several times by untimely crashes. After a great ride in La Fleche Wallonne, Martin looked to be in a great position to nab another Monument in the ensuing Liege-Bastogne-Liege and his first Grand Tour Top 10 in the Giro d’Italia. Crashes took him out of contention in both races, but he picked up his first Grand Tour Top 10 (in the Vuelta) and now he’s won that second Monument anyway. An explosive climber with a special talent for the one-day races and currently in his prime, Martin should be a major threat in the hilly classics for years to come.
Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde has been a major threat in the hilly classics for years already, but he followed a familiar script in Il Lombardia, hoping for a reduced sprint at the end of a tough day; that plan didn’t work in Ponferrada last week (where a lack of cohesion in a strong chasing group left Valverde and Simon Gerrans sprinting for the lower steps of the podium behind Michal Kwiatkowski), and it failed again here. As strong as Valverde has been in 2014, his results have included a whole lot of near misses, but I’m not sure he plans on changing his approach any time soon.
Rui Costa landed another big result in a season also filled with near misses, but it can’t be said that he hasn’t given 100% trying to turn those close calls into wins: just as was the case in Montreal, where he finished 2nd, he made the attempt to jump clear late here but was unable to get any space, and still managed to add a nice result to his palmares. In fact, this was his first ever podium in a Monument Classic.
Tim Wellens of Lotto Belisol has been a revelation this year, and his 4th place in Il Lombardia is a nice addition to his already impressive list of achievements in 2014. He has explosiveness and has performed well on difficult profiles throughout the season. He tried to escape from the lead group over the Bergamo Alta, and though he did not succeed, his Top 5 finish in the company of an Olympic champion, a World Champion, and multiple Monument winners is something to be proud of.
The parcours of the new route was not as favorable to Joaquim Rodriguez, who could only manage 8th place after dominating this race in back-to-back years. Fellow climbing specialist Fabio Aru was confident coming into this race and earned a lot of attention as a potential contender, but the last two climbs just weren’t hard enough to launch the pure climbers to victory, and the young Italian had to settle for 9th.
Another rider who will be disappointed with his day in Italy is newly crowned World Champ Michal Kwiatkowski. He spent much of the day very close to the front of the peloton, looking to be in good shape, and with the way the race played out, one might have expected a strong challenge for victory from Kwiatkowski, but he was badly affected by cramps in the last 10 kilometers of the race, suddenly cutting the power to his engine just as things started to heat up. It’s not the result he was hoping for, of course, but it’s been a long season for Kwiatkowski, and now he’ll at least have an opportunity to recharge the batteries before what’s sure to be an exciting 2015 in the rainbow jersey.
With Il Lombardia in the rearview mirror, only one race remains on the 2014 WorldTour calendar! Stay tuned for the preview of the Tour of Beijing, and plenty more analysis as the season comes to a close.
-Dane Cash
Photo by MorBCN.
Worlds may be over, but the 2014 cycling season isn’t quite done yet. There are still two events on the WorldTour calendar, including the final Monument of the year, Il Lombardia (formerly the Giro di Lombardia, the Tour of Lombardy). It’s a race with a lot of history, and the parcours (though updated this year) always provides plenty of uphill challenges to make for an exciting day; in recent years, those challenges have proven ideal for climbing specialist Joaquim Rodriguez, who has won the previous two editions.
Still a scenic ride through the hilly Lombardy region of Italy, the “Race of the Falling Leaves” has a new route with new climbs to overcome this year. Instead of starting in Bergamo, Il Lombardia 2014 will finish there, setting out from Como and weaving alongside lakes and over several climbs before the line after a total of 254 kilometers. The first vertical challenge is the Madonna del Ghisallo, which, in previous editions, featured much later in the route. This year, it will be crested only 58 kilometers into the race, but it will still inject plenty of pain into the legs early in the day. Roughly 8.6 kilometers at around a 6.2% average grade, the climb is significantly harder than those general numbers would suggest due to its irregular nature. Things flatten out for a few kilometers in the middle of the ascent, but on both sides of this reprieve are stretches where the gradient jumps over 10%.
After the Madonna del Ghisallo, things ease off for a while as the road heads toward Bergamo, which the riders will pass through a little over 130 kilometers into the race before embarking on a long, wide loop that will take them over some challenging climbs on the way back to Bergamo for the finish. The tough stuff starts in earnest with the Colle Gallo (7.4 km at 6%) after about 157 kilometers, and from there it’s mostly up and down to the line. After a fast descent comes the hardest climb of the race, the Passo di Ganda, 9.2 kilometers at 7.3%. Crested about 65 kilometers from the finish, it’s certain to force some selection. A tricky descent follows, interrupted by a short but very steep climb to Bracca, and then another downhill stretch to the foot of the Berbenno climb, which is likely to be a major battleground. 5.5 kilometers at 5.3%, there are a few particularly steep stretches early on, maxing out at 10%. From the top, it’s less than 30 kilometers from the finish line. The peloton will take on a fast descent and then ride on relatively flat roads until the final climb of the day, the Bergamo Alta. It’s only a little over a kilometer to the top, but the average gradient is a demanding 7.9%, and once the climb is crested less than 4 km remain to the line, mostly downhill and with plenty of twists and turns along the way; the winner of the race will likely be one of the first few riders over the Bergamo Alta, as there isn’t much room to recover lost ground after the climb. The ensuing downhill gradient flattens out for the final 500 meters of the race, which could set up a reduced sprint to the line if a small group of riders are together in the lead.
As an autumn race, Il Lombardia is no stranger to difficult conditions. Purito’s two victories have both been rainy affairs, and there is again a chance of rain this year; with so many descents on the docket, wet roads would certainly shake up an already unpredictable race.
The Final Monument Classic of the season, Il Lombardia tends to draw most of the top specialists of the hilly one-day events looking to take one last big prize on the year; the 2014 edition of the race is no exception. Joaquim Rodriguez returns to Il Lombardia hoping to collect his third straight win. It won’t be easy. He has been on decent form in the second half of his season, but he wasn’t quite at the level he’d planned to be during the Vuelta and he did not make as much of an impact at Worlds as maybe he’d hoped. Still, he has been unstoppable in Lombardy in the past few seasons, landing three straight podium performances, and he put in a strong ride (to take 5th) in this week’s Milano-Torino. I’m not sure the new parcours suits him quite as well as past editions did, but Purito is motivated to get more out of this year than he has so far. Katusha has a lot of firepower in the race to support Rodriguez or to provide alternatives. Daniel Moreno was 6th in this race last year and is a particularly strong sprinter even on flat roads should he find himself in shootout late, and he showed good form in Milano-Torino, coming in 3rd. The winner of that race also happens to ride for Katusha: Giampaolo Caruso, always aggressive and having a strong year (he was 4th in Liege-Bastogne-Liege), will be another weapon in Il Lombardia, as will Alexandr Kolobnev. The team will need all hands on deck, given the startlist and a less Purito-friendly profile, to defend their title.
Alejandro Valverde was runner-up in 2013 and the alterations to the route should be just fine with him; he couldn’t stay with Rodriguez on the Villa Vergano climb last year, and he no longer has to worry about that this year. Valverde’s versatile skillset makes him a difficult opponent. He may have Grand Tour-winning climbing talent, but he also has an especially strong sprint, and that could be critical to victory here. Few riders likely to survive the entire day at the head of affairs are as quick at the finish as Valverde; expect to see his rivals do everything they can in an attempt to drop him before the final few kilometers (which will be a pretty tall order). They know that Valverde, coming off a podium performance at Worlds, is probably the top favorite for the race, even with Rodriguez here looking for a third straight win. Movistar also has Giovanni Visconti and several top climbers in attendance, among them, Beñat Intxausti and Ion Izagirre.
One rider who may have the top speed to challenge even Valverde in a reduced sprint finale is new World Champion Michal Kwiatkowski. His daring escape from the peloton in the Ponferrada finale may be his most famous accomplishment so far in his career, but his finishing kick is very impressive in and of itself. If he can hold on over the tough climbs, he can contest the victory in a number of ways, whether that means launching another bold move or holding on for a group finish. The rainbow jersey isn’t the only threat on a loaded OPQS team: Rigoberto Uran is a two-time podium finisher in this race, Pieter Serry was an impressive 7th last year, and Wout Poels and Gianluca Brambilla have been particularly strong in 2014.
Garmin-Sharp’s Daniel Martin has been 8th, 4th, and even 2nd in this race already in his career; the 2013 Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner thrives in the hillier one-day races, and Il Lombardia definitely qualifies. Martin’s sprinting chops seem to have improved this year should a small group reach the line together, and he should again be one of the top contenders in the race. Ryder Hesjedal and Tom-Jelte Slagter will give Garmin-Sharp a strong, multi-facted attack plan.
Tinkoff-Saxo’s Alberto Contador may not have the one-day resume to match his stage-racing palmares, but on a climber-friendly parcours, few are as dangerous. He will need to get clear of the faster finishers, but the abundance of ascents, especially the Berbenno climb (though not especially challenging by itself, it does have steep stretches and it comes near the end of a day full of ups and downs) will give him opportunities. Success in the Monument Classics has eluded Contador so far in his career but he’s had a brilliant year and looked to still be on strong form even in October with a 6th place in Milano-Torino. Teammate Oliver Zaugg was the surprise winner of this race in 2011, and he’s not having a bad year himself.
The back-to-back Giro di Lombardia victories of BMC’s Philippe Gilbert may seem like a lifetime ago now, but he should still be a threat on this parcours. Coming off a strong ride at Worlds, where he was really the only rider in the first chase group doing any work attempting to close down Michal Kwiatkowski and still landed 7th, Gilbert looks to be on good form. The short climb that closes out this race will be a nice potential launching pad for Gilbert; alternatively, he could rely on his strong sprint if he sticks with the lead group over the top. Samuel Sanchez, a four-time podium finisher here, can’t be overlooked either. 6th overall in this year’s hotly contested Vuelta is nothing to sneeze at, and his age probably hasn’t diminished his elite descending skills, which will come in handy here. Tejay van Garderen and Cadel Evans bring even more firepower for BMC.
Now former World Champion Rui Costa wasn’t able to make it into the Gerrans/Valverde move in Ponferrada, but he finished respectably with the group behind, and the form he showed in Montreal isn’t likely to have faded just yet. This is an excellent profile for Costa, who is particularly adept at breaking away from the pack on hillier days and capable in a reduced sprint as well, and he is highly motivated to pick up more victories this season.
AG2R may have explosive Carlos Betancur and Tour de France runner-up Jean-Christophe Peraud on the startlist, but Romain Bardet looks to be the team’s strongest option, having shown some surprising one-day racing chops this season (10th in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and 5th in Montreal). Il Lombardia suits him about as well as any classic on the calendar, and he’ll be among the most dangerous potential escapees on the late climbs. Rinaldo Nocentini, 2nd in Milano-Torino, is obviously on terrific form and could be in contention as well, as could Domenico Pozzovivo.
Belkin’s Bauke Mollema has the uphill talent to get involved at the business end of the race, and an underrated finishing kick, especially after a lumpy day (he outsprinted Joaquim Rodriguez for 2nd in the Clasica de San Sebastian in August). With Wilco Kelderman, another very complete rider, Lars Petter Nordhaug, and Laurens Ten Dam as well, Belkin has options. Lotto-Belisol is another team with several different weapons here: Tony Gallopin will hope to stick with the premium climbing favorites over the harder ascents so that he can challenge for victory with a late escape or in a reduced sprint finish, while Tim Wellens and Jelle Vanendert are both excellent bets to get aggressive on the hills. Orica-GreenEdge, as might be expected in a race with this many hills, also has a stacked squad, with Michael Albasini, an excellent climber with a fast finish, probably the strongest option and Daryl Impey, Esteban Chaves, Pieter Weening, and Adam and Simon Yates all dangerous, too. Astana has elite uphill talent Fabio Aru, who may not have the classics experience, but who can attack on a climb better than almost anyone in the professional peloton; meanwhile, Enrico Gasparotto is an always-underrated contender in the hilly one-day races, and he was 5th in last year’s Tour of Lombardy. FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot, Cannondale’s strong and on-form Alessandro De Marchi, Davide Formolo, and Damiano Caruso, Giant-Shumano’s Tom Dumoulin, Warren Barguil, and Simon Geschke, Bardiani’s Edoardo Zardini, Europcar’s Cyril Gautier, Trek’s Frank Schleck (a decent 9th in Milano-Torino) and Julian Arredondo, and Caja Rural’s Luis Leon Sanchez are on the long list of outside contenders who will hope to be in the mix as well. Sky’s Ben Swift deserves the final mention; it seems highly unlikely that he’d survive to the finish, but he’s a more capable climber and one-day racer than most other sprinters, and this profile at least leaves the door open just a bit.
Winner: Alejandro Valverde
Podium: Joaquim Rodriguez, Michal Kwiatkowski
Other Top Contenders: Daniel Martin, Alberto Contador, Daniel Moreno, Philippe Gilbert, Rui Costa, Romain Bardet, Bauke Mollema
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary and analysis, and check back soon for the preview of the final race of the 2014 season, the Tour of Beijing, and more interviews and analysis!
-Dane Cash
Photo by Matthew Peoples.