You can check out my preview of Gent-Wevelgem (including the women’s race!) over at VeloNews… Though if you’re just looking for a men’s race Top 10, here’s how I see it playing out.
Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: André Greipel, Arnaud Démare
Other Top Contenders: Peter Sagan, Fernando Gaviria, Jens Debusschere, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Matteo Trentin, Jens Debusschere, Sep Vanmarcke
Photo: Dane Cash.
The 107th edition of Milano-Sanremo gets underway Saturday. 291 kilometers of racing through north-western Italy, the event is a classic in every sense of the word, but unique among the classics in its appeal to sprinters and hardmen alike.
This year’s Milano-Sanremo route sticks to the recent formula: the first 235km feature only one climb, the Passo del Turchino, and then comes a succession of small ascents sure to launch attacks. The two key climbs are the Cipressa, 5.6km with a 4.1% gradient (summitted just over 21km from the finish) and the subsequent Poggio, a little under 4km at a little under 4% (summitted a little over 5km from the finish).
The race concludes on the iconic Via Roma, with a long finishing straight that usually treats fans to a high-speed showdown.
The Poggio and Cipressa spring attacks every year, but neither climb is hard enough to really favor the escapees. It’s certainly a possibility that someone aggressive can jump clear here, but the bunch kick specialists seem more likely to thrive—in particular, those bunch kick specialists with the endurance to ride for six hours while keeping a sprint in the tank.
2015 winner John Degenkolb fits that bill, but injury has forced him to miss out on the race; he won’t be defending his crown Saturday, leaving the title open for the taking.
2014 winner Alexander Kristoff will be in attendance. He narrowly missed out on the win last year when he opened his sprint far too early, but still managed to come in second. A proven performer at this distance who has looked sharped so far in 2016, Kristoff will have the eyes of the whole peloton on him when the riders roll into Sanremo.
Peter Sagan has come close here in years past and seems like a lock to do so again this year, but he might not have the top-end speed to compete on this parcours. Plus, the distance may get to him—he still has yet to take a victory in a Monument Classic. For Sagan, it will be important to drop or get clear of the likes of Alexander Kristoff.
Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge found himself on the podium in 2015 and should have only gotten better since then. The 26-year-old has yet to take that big one-day win and he is probably just a tad behind Kristoff in the speed department, but he has looked very strong so far in 2016. Former winner Simon Gerrans should be a strong ally.
That trio looks to be a cut above the rest if this come downs to a sprint, but there are quite a few others who could be in the mix.
Fernando Gaviria is a hot name right now given his strong results so far this year and his great top-end speed, but it’s really, really hard to win Sanremo without having ever raced a big classic. If he’s not up for this, Etixx does have Tom Boonen on the squad. Nacer Bouhanni is another sprinter who can never been ignored, though this is a very difficult race that might be too much for the Frenchman who has never been a huge classics star.
Ben Swift, Elia Viviani, Arnaud Demare, Niccolo Bonifazio, and Giacomo Nizzolo are others who should be to hold their own in a sprint.
Fabian Cancellara will be among those hoping to deny the sprinters their shot at the win. He has won Milano-Sanremo in the past and proved his form in the Tirreno-Adriatico time trial. It won’t be easy for him to escape the bunch, but he’ll probably try.
Greg Van Avermaet is another rider who will probably need to break free from the peloton to make something happen here, but if his early season results are any indication, he has all the form in the world right now. He’s also got a lot of speed for a reduced sprint.
Edvald Boasson Hagen is yet another versatile guy who has looked strong this season, and he brings the complete package with his ability to both solo and sprint. Dimension Data teammate Mark Cavendish, a former winner here, has said that Boasson Hagen will be the one to watch.
Vincenzo Nibali will almost certainly make some kind of late attack in this race. His defending skills will give him an edge if he can escape the peloton on the Cipressa or the Poggio.
Tony Gallopin, Tim Wellens, Geraint Thomas, Zdenek Stybar, and Sep Vanmarcke are others who could try to take advantage of the late climbs to make something happen.
Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: Peter Sagan, Michael Matthews
Other Top Contenders: Fabian Cancellara, Greg Van Avermaet, Vincenzo Nibali, Fernando Gaviria, Nacer Bouhanni, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Mark Cavendish
The Richmond World Championships week concludes with the elite men’s road race, which will decide who earns the right to rainbow stripes for the next 12 months. It’s been a long stretch of post-Tour of tune-up races, but it’s time for the international peloton to put it on the line in the fight for cycling’s biggest one-day prize.
The men’s elite road race runs 261.4 kilometers in total. Starting just outside town at the University of Richmond, the peloton will roll into a road circuit of 16.2km, completing a slightly reduced lap on the way to the first passing of the line then, and then riding 15 more to the race finish.
The circuit starts out fast, with mostly flat or downhill roads, but things get both lumpy and technical in the final few kilometers. There are three climbs to speak of that will likely spur plenty of action late in the race, with plenty of twists and turns thrown in along the way to give the attackers a hand in escape attempts. First up is the cobbled Libby Hill climb, 200 meters at about 8%. Then comes a short flat stretch and a fast descent into the foot of the very steep 23rd street climb, also on cobblestones, 100 meters at over 10%. After one last downhill run comes the Governor’s Street climb, 300 meters at about 7%. The climb evens out about 700 meters from the finish, though the rest of the way angles just slightly upward.
There is a wide variety of opinions on how this race will play out (a topic covered at length in the Recon Ride podcast p/b VeloNews, which is absolutely worth checking out). A glance at the cumulative vertical meters wouldn’t suggest that this profile is particularly difficult, but the climbs come in fast succession, the first two are cobbled, and things are technical enough that riders will be on edge all day. Throw in a high chance of a rain and what appears to be a less challenging course could get very messy.
It’s hard to say whether the race will come down to a sprint or to a late escape. The severity of the weather could make the difference. In any case, the flatter finish will make sprinting legs a major asset for the rainbow jersey hopefuls. There are several riders in Richmond who combine impressive top-end speed with respectable climbing legs and classics-style grit, and it is those riders who stand out as the top favorites for what has to be described as a wide open worlds road race.
Alexander Kristoff is certainly among the top names in the race. If Kristoff can bring the form he showed in the Tour of Flanders into this race, he’ll be deadly: he didn’t wait around for large group sprint in that race, instead attacking late on with Niki Terpstra and holding out for the win. If he can win on the more challenging parcours of De Ronde, he should be able to handle Richmond if the form is there, latching onto a small group if need be. Recent showings in the Arctic Race of Norway, the Vattenfall Cyclassics, the GP Ouest-France, and the GP Québec suggest that he’s in great shape. His Norwegian squad brings only six riders, but there are enough sprinters in the race to probably keep things under control, so I don’t really see the six-man squad at much of a disadvantage. Speaking of Norwegian teammates, Edvald Boasson Hagen will be an excellent second card to play for the squad, on blazing form right now and on a course that suits hits talents.
John Degenkolb beat Kristoff in Milano-Sanremo this year, and worked his own late-escape-magic to take the victory in Paris-Roubaix. Again, if the form is there, Degenkolb should thrive, though he hasn’t had quite a successful Worlds buildup as Kristoff. He also hasn’t had quite as much success on cobbled climbs over the years, so it’s hard to say how he’ll feel about Libby Hill. In any case, he’s a huge threat to win if he’s in shape, and a powerhouse German squad is ready to set him up for the victory. André Greipel is on the squad as well, and will be an obvious favorite if he can survive the tough day.
Peter Sagan has just the perfect skillset for this course: he’s an excellent bike handler, he loves the short climbs, and he can be in the mix with the best in a sprint. I will be very surprised if he’s not on the podium at the end of the day. A moto crash at the Vuelta interrupted his buildup campaign but he should still be in good shape to fight for the win. The biggest challenge will be the distance, as his Grand Tour stage-winning sprinting legs have often lost a bit of luster at the end of long Classics.
Michael Matthews is the other sprinting talent who stands out as a top favorite. On the one hand, I like his climbing legs and love his form right now after an impressive showing in Québec. I also think Australia will ride well in support of him. On the other hand, Matthews’s talents have not yet translated into all that much one-day success compared to his top rivals here, and a long and potentially hectic Worlds course will be a tough place for him to make the leap to the next level. Still, he’s a big threat, and his top-end speed may be underrated by some. Teammate Simon Gerrans is an unknown for Australia: the course suits him, but form is a total question mark after several crashes this season. Obviously keep an eye on the two-time Monument winner.
The Belgian squad starts the two riders I see as most likely to win the race with a late solo move, as well as a few other contenders. Greg Van Avermaet is my top pick on the team. This is a good route for him, with steep cobbled sections to escape the pack and twists and turns to stay clear. If he comes to the line in a small group, Van Avermaet packs a strong sprint. I expect to see him near the top of the leaderboard after 261.4km. Philippe Gilbert could also get involved. The climbs might not be as long as he’d prefer but he’s looked good this year and his strong team should be able to set him up nicely for an attack. Sep Vanmarcke and Tom Boonen are other good options.
Speaking of Classics riders, Zdenek Stybar should thrive here—he’s in shape, he loves cobbled climbs, and he’s not being talked about as much as the fast finishers. The former cyclocross world champion will shine if the rain makes things messy.
France has Arnaud Démare and Nacer Bouhanni for a potential sprint, but I like the chances of both Julian Alaphilippe and Tony Gallopin even better. Gallopin thrives in selective finishes, and Alaphilippe was active in the Canadian GPs.
Defending world champion Michal Kwiatkowski will have his work cut out for him trying to hold onto the rainbow jersey, but he’s an excellent bike handler and descender who will love the technical finale. He also showed good form in the Canadian GPs even if the results didn’t show much. It would be a mistake to underestimate him. Also likely to be overlooked a bit given the course, 2013 world champ Rui Costa could be involved as well after a strong showing in Montréal.
Niki Terpstra is my top outsider pick for the Worlds Road Race. He looked very strong in the Vuelta, he’s made great strides climbing on the cobbles, and he’s even got speed for a sprint. The Dutch team is strong and it’s been flying under the radar. Tom Dumoulin and Lars Boom are other riders to watch.
Spain may be nominally riding for Alejandro Valverde, and he certainly has a chance with the late climbs, but I’m eying Juan José Lobato as well. His season quieted down after a great start but he looked good in the Tour of Britain and is very fast when in form.
Matti Breschel always seems to show up for Worlds and this course suits him. Italy does not have a team that is particularly suited to the course, but with a huge collection of talents on the squad maybe something will work out. I especially like Matteo Trentin, but there is plenty of firepower on the Italian team. Taylor Phinney will fly the flag for the home nation. This course suits him very well, but it’s impossible to say how his form will hold up over the course of 261.4km in his first big one-day race back from injury. Still, his time trial performance hinted that he’s in good shape. Tyler Farrar is the sprint option for Team U.S.A. Ben Swift, Ramunas Navardauskas, Michael Albasini, and Sam Bennett are on the very long list of outsiders who could surprise the big favorites in Richmond.
Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: Peter Sagan, John Degenkolb
Other Top Contenders: Greg Van Avermaet, Michael Matthews, Philippe Gilbert, Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, Juan José Lobato, Julian Alaphilippe.
VH will be in Richmond to provide plenty of Worlds analysis, so stay tuned for coverage throughout the week, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more.
There are just four stages left in the 2015 Vuelta a España, and only three of them have climbs to speak of: anyone who isn’t satisfied with their GC position thus far has to put it all on the line in the next few days. That should make for an exciting finale.
Stage 18 is a lumpy one, and while it may lack a summit finish, don’t underestimate the potential for action. The stage opens with a long false flat, a few rollers, and then a very long false flat (about 30km at a 1% gradient or so) that runs into the first of the stage’s three categorized climbs, the Cat. 3 Alto Santibáñez de Ayllón. After a downhill stretch comes another Cat. 3, and then the next 80 kilometers are a constant succession of short ups and downs that, while uncategorized, will likely inject some fatigue into the legs.
At kilometer 181, the riders will hit the final climb of the day, the cat. 1 Puerto de la Quesera. 10km at 5.2%, it starts out relatively easy before getting a bit more difficult after 4km. From the top, it’s only 13km to the finish, downhill all the way to the line.
In terms of the stage win, this one looks tailormade for the breakaway. The GC favorites put everything on the line on Stage 17 and might be bringing a bit of fatigue into the day, and without a summit finish, there might be bit less pace in the peloton late in the afternoon.
Alessandro De Marchi already has one breakaway stage victory in this Vuelta and a few of the days ahead will offer more opportunities for De Marchi’s aggressive brand of racing. He’s not a sprinter, nor is he an elite climber compared to the jersey hopefuls, but he’s excellent on rolling terrain.
Giovanni Visconti has the multi-fateced skillset to win. And a nice finishing kick to place highly at the line. Movistar politics are the big unknown here. but if he’s in the lead group near the end of the day, he’s a rider to watch.
Europcar has landed riders in break over and over agains in this Vuelta and this stage should continue that trend. Cyril Gautier has a strong track record on small climbs like this and Romain Sicard is having a great run so far.
Lampre-Merida’s Rubén Plaza took a Tour de France stage victory in July bolstered by his ability to put in a good performance on lumpy terrain. Caja Rural’s José Goncalves is well-suited to the parcours, though the team has so many options it’s hard to pick just one. Adam Hansen, Julien Simon, Stephen Cummings, and Niki Terpstra are others could be looking to win the early battle to get into the break.
Alejandro Valverde has to be to the top favorite if the red jersey hopefuls are fighting it out for the stage victory. With a sprint that is so much better than that of his rivals, he’s looking strong again, so the climbs shouldn’t trouble him.
Joaquím Rodriguez is also well-suited to success on the parcours. He needs to make something happen as soon as possible to still hold on to his slim chance at the red jersey. It shouldn’t come as a surprise if he tries something on the final climb.
1. Alessandro De Marchi | 2. Giovanni Visconti | 3. José Goncalves
Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 18.
The WorldTour heads to the Brittany region this weekend for the GP Ouest France. The hilly circuit race is often known by its former name, the GP Plouay, or simply as “Plouay,” the small Breton town where the race starts and finishes (the most recent Recon Ride episode covers this topic, among many others, in depth). Though the event may garner a bit less attention than the concurrently-running Vuelta, it is almost always an exciting race that draws a very impressive startlist, in no small part thanks to its appeal as a stepping stone to Worlds.
The 229.1km GP Ouest-France takes on the same terrain many times over, via eight laps on a 26.9km circuit and then a single lap on a reduced circuit of 13.9 kilometers.
Each of the long laps opens with a climb of the Côte du Lezot, a little over a kilometer in length and with much of that distance at a gradient in the realm of 6%. From the top, it’s a descent followed by a long gentle ascent up to the Chapelle Sainte-Anne des Bois. After a flat section and then a quick downhill run, the pack will take on the Côte de Ty Marrec, only about a kilometer in length but with a long stretch in the middle nearing 10%.
The shortened final lap will still look quite familiar, but with much less distance between the two harder climbs. The less challenging trip to the the Chapelle Sainte-Anne des Bois will not be a part of the last lap, which cuts out almost half the distance of the full lap, thereby bringing the ascents of the Côte du Lezot and the Côte de Ty Marrec closer together. From the top of the Ty Marrec it’s a gentle downhill run of about 3km to the finish line.
The GP Ouest-France parcours is deftly balanced in such a way that it’s never quite clear until the final moments of the race whether a late attacker or the sprinters will reign supreme. The course isn’t so hard as to automatically drop the fast finishers from contention, but the Côte de Ty Marrec comes late enough (in a day that is long and challenging enough as it is) to give the aggressive riders a chance at jumping clear of the pack and holding out for victory. In any case, thanks to the flatter finish, a strong sprint is a pretty helpful asset—whether the race comes down to a bunch kick or a small group, anyone hoping to win this race would do well to have some speed.
Greg Van Avermaet has the endurance to come into the finale fresh, the climbing legs and explosiveness to make or join or late move, and the finishing kick to win a reduced sprint. This is a wide open race, but he’s got to be among the top favorites for his versatility. His top-end speed, in particular, has improved over the past few years, to the point where he’s capable of winning a sprint even against specialists on a good day. He’s also got excellent form, having landed 2nd overall in the Eneco Tour. BMC has plenty of other cards to play in this race as well, with talents aplenty to potentially launch constant attacks every time the opportunities present themselves. Philippe Gilbert looks strong right now and is an obvious candidate to go on the move on the climbs, Ben Hermans is on the form of his life and was 7th in this race last year, and Dylan Teuns and Silvan Dillier are even further options for the Belgian squad.
Should a larger group make it to the finish, two riders stand out above the rest as favorites. The first is the rider who won the bunch sprint behind the winning move in last year’s race. Alexander Kristoff can handle a tough course, he’s among the fastest riders on the startlist, and looks to be in good form right now. Giacomo Nizzolo, who was next in line behind Kristoff last year, hasn’t had much luck beating the Norwegian in the past, but this race is a major target for Nizzolo (something he talked about in more detail in the latest Recon Ride) and the potentially messy sprint finale suits him very well. He was runner-up in 2013 to Filippo Pozzato, and has improved his kick since then. Fabio Felline gives Trek a nice alternative.
Etixx-QuickStep, as might be expected for a one-day race, brings a squad full of contenders. Julian Alaphilippe made the Top 10 in 2014 and seems best suited, with strong climbing legs and a fast finish in a reduced kick. Tom Boonen will be the sprinter of choice if this comes down to a bunch gallop, not a bad option to fall back on seeing as he’s on blazing form right now. Tony Martin and Stijn Vandenbergh are others with a shot.
Not to be outdone in the Belgian WorldTour team department, Lotto-Soudal also has options. Tim Wellens, fresh over a convincing Eneco Tour win, may be the most obvious candidate. He certainly has the skillset to thrive here. However, his biggest career successes have come when he has been able to rely on the element of surprise—he’s won the Eneco Tour twice in a row now after showing little in the way of form coming into that race. Whether he can still thrive when all eyes are on him is another matter. If not, Jurgen Roelandts may be the best option: he has actually made the Top 10 in this race three years in a row, and has shown great form this season. Tony Gallopin is another card to play. Jens Debuscherre and Tiesj Benoot are others to watch.
LottoNL-Jumbo doesn’t have quite the team firepower as the aforementioned squads but Sep Vanmarcke is on blazing form and just the sort of rider who might be able to nab a win after a long day of up and down in Plouay. He’s not bad in a sprint, and he’s highly motivated to get something out of a 2015 that has been somewhat disappointing. Moreno Hofland is the main option for the team if the race comes down to a big bunch kick.
Rui Costa was runner-up in 2012 and certainly has the aggressive style to take a win in this race, though he might not be back to 100% after a difficult Tour de France. Diego Ulissi and Davide Cimolai make fine alternatives for Lampre-Merida.
Marcel Kittel certainly deserves a mention as the fastest pure sprinter on the startlist, but it will be extremely difficult for him to make it all the way to the line given his general inability to handle uphill gradients. Sky’s duo of Elia Viviani and Ben Swift, FDJ’s Arnaud Démare, OGE’s Michael Albasini, Movistar’s JJ Lobato, Astana’s Borut Bozic, Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, and IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler will be among the other fast finishers who will hope to hold out for a bunch kick.
Given the parcours and the race history, the list of outsiders who could have a chance with a late attack could encompass the entire roster of riders making the start, but to name just a few: Simon Yates, Ramunas Navardauskas, a strong AG2R tandem of Romain Bardet and Alexis Vuillermoz, Andrea Fedi, Tommy Voeckler, and Arthur Vichot are among the many riders who might be worth keeping an eye on when the peloton approaches the final climb of the Côte de Ty Marrec.
Lastly, VeloHuman’s Under-the-radar contender for the GP Ouest-France: Rasmus Guldhammer of Cult Energy. Guldhammer was 10th in the Vattenfall Cyclassics, showing off his sprinting ability against far more familiar quick men, but he’s also got the climbing chops to survive this parcours. In a reduced field, the former U23 Liège-Bastogne-Liège winner could put up a serious fight for the victory in Plouay.
Winner: Greg Van Avermaet
Podium: Alexander Kristoff, Giacomo Nizzolo
Other Top Contenders: Philippe Gilbert, Julian Alaphilippe, Tom Boonen, Jurgen Roelandts, Tim Wellens, Sep Vanmarcke, Arnaud Démare
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and don’t forget to check out the Recon Ride’s GP Ouest-France pre-rance show!
Episode 24: GP Ouest-France 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride takes on the GP Ouest-France, the always-exciting circuit race that starts and finishes in the small Breton town of Plouay, with some help from Giacomo Nizzolo.
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One of the more underrated events on the WorldTour calendar, Plouay’s GP Ouest-France usually offers plenty of thrills, with a parcours that makes it hard to predict whether the race will come down to a sprint or a late attack. Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm take a closer look at the route, the favorites, and the storylines ahead of the race, with a bit of extra insight from Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo, runner-up in Plouay in 2013.
Photo by Renault Sport (CC).