Tag: Alexander Kristoff

Vattenfall Cyclassics 2015 Preview

Most of cycling’s biggest Grand Tour stars are in Spain for the Vuelta right now, but the cream of the sprinting crop will be in Germany on Sunday instead to take on the Vattenfall Cyclassics. The event, which almost always comes down to a bunch sprint in Hamburg, offers the fast finishers a rare opportunity to take a one-day win at the WorldTour level, though a bit of grit will come in handy at the end of a long day: hardman Alexander Kristoff won the race in 2014 with Giacomo Nizzolo and Simon Gerrans behind him, all three of them besting even Marcel Kittel and Mark Cavendish in the finishing sprint.

The Route

The race starts in Kiel, Germany and heads southward to Hamburg, where the route twists and turns through the city and its suburbs en route to the finish line after 221.3 kilometers. The terrain is not particularly challenging throughout, but it does include one moderately difficult climb taken a total of three times. The Waseberg, about 800 meters long with an average gradient of about 15%, usually inspires attacks and puts a few riders into difficulty, especially during the third and final ascent of the climb with about 15km to go, but in the past the race has usually come back together before the line for a (sometimes messy) sprint on a flat straightaway.

The Contenders

It’s hard to see this race coming down to anything other than a bunch kick, but at the end of 221 kilometers of racing and a probably-hectic chase to close down any late attackers, the likely sprint for Vattenfall Cyclassics glory will be a lot more than just a test of pure top-end spend. A sprint may be all but guaranteed, but predicting the winner won’t be easy.

Cycling’s “big three” sprinting stars are all making the start. Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, and André Greipel are in a class of their own in the pure speed department, and all three will have a chance in this race.

Greipel comes into Hamburg on the heels an excellent Tour de France, and despite his stellar July, motivation should still be high: this is Germany’s only WorldTour race, and Greipel has been on the podium a three times in the last five years without winning. At this stage in his career, he has developed the strength to handle some climbs and some distance (as evidenced by his strong work in the Classics this year), and should come into the likely sprint finish in good shape. The big question will be the potentially hectic finale. Greipel has historically struggled in challenging position battles. If he is not afraid to take a few risks, Greipel might finally nab the Vattenfall Cyclassics win he’s been looking for for years.

Marcel Kittel at peak form is probably the fastest sprinter in the world, but Kittel has not been on the level this year. This race is also considerably more difficult than he’d prefer—of the aforementioned trio of speedsters, Kittel is probably the least versatile, and could come to the finish gassed if he gets there at all. He was in the mix in the 2014 edition of the race, but could only manage a 6th-place finish. Still, he’s hungry to pick up as many results as possible after a disappointing for half of the year, and this is a prime opportunity, so he can’t be counted out.

Mark Cavendish did not come away with as many stage wins from the Tour de France as he would have liked, but he’s still had plenty of success so far this season. He was 5th in Hamburg last year, and isn’t afraid of a hectic finale even if it isn’t his forte. He will be a top favorite for the win if he can stay well-placed coming into the finale, while Tom Boonen and Julian Alaphilippe make for impressive alternatives for EQS.

In a battle of pure speed, Alexander Kristoff is a step behind the aforementioned trio of Cav, Greipel, and Kittel, but he can’t be underestimated in his attempted title defense—the one-day races are Kristoff’s territory, and he’s a proven winner in the Vattenfall Cyclassics. He’s also carrying strong form right now en route to a bid for glory at Worlds. Kristoff can beat anyone under the right conditions. There should be plenty of action on the final ascent of the Waseberg, forcing some selection and making for a stressful finale, which will suit the stoic Kristoff well.

Giacomo Nizzolo has made the podium twice in the last three editions of the race, earning runner-up honors in 2014. Hamburg is a very important goal of his; his typical season routine starts with a buildup to a peak at the Giro, and then concludes with a second run at high-level success in the late-season circuit races. The motivation is there, and Nizzolo is particularly effective in hectic finishes. He’s also quite handy after a long day on the bike. In short, the conditions are perfect for Nizzolo to succeed. Converting that into an actual victory though won’t be easy, given the startlist and Nizzolo’s propensity to come up just a hair short in the big races. He’ll need everything to go right to turn a podium performance into a win.

Arnaud Démare has not had nearly the year FDJ was expecting of him, but he did win this race in 2012 and it does suit his strengths. He’s got a shot. MTN-Qhubeka has a pair of former winners on the roster in Tyler Farrar (two times the winner of this race) and Edvald Boasson Hagen. Gerald Ciolek makes the start as well. It’s tough to say who the team will back, but Boasson Hagen has been in great form of late and will have a chance if the day is particularly hectic. Greg Van Avermaet of BMC would love that scenario: if the race is hard enough to put some of the sprinters into difficulty, he’ll have a shot in a reduced bunch kick. So will teammate Philippe Gilbert, and fellow Belgian Classics star Sep Vanmarcke of LottoNL-Jumbo. Vanmarcke is building up to a strong late-season peak again after a disappointing spring.

Sam Bennett, JJ Lobato, Elia Viviani, Heinrich Haussler, Moreno Hofland, Andrea Guardini, Michael Albasini, and Niccolo Bonifazio are others with a shot at glory in Hamburg.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: André Greipel
Podium: Alexander Kristoff, Mark Cavendish
Other Top Contenders: Giacomo Nizzolo, Marcel Kittel, Greg Van Avermaet, JJ Lobato, Sam Bennett, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Elia Viviani

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis, and don’t miss VeloHuman’s Vuelta a España stage previews—stage 2 of the Vuelta is running concurrently with the Vattenfall Cyclassics!

Photo by zoer (CC).

August 23, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 5 Preview

Stage 5: Arras › Amiens – 189.5km

With Tony Martin in the yellow jersey following a hard-fought Stage 4 win, the fifth stage of the Tour should finally give the GC riders a chance to take a breath after several days of very hectic action early on in the race. The 189.5km course has small rollers throughout, but there are no categorized climbs to speak of on the day. Without any great launching pads, and given the relatively light helping of sprinter-friendly stages in this year’s Tour de France, the quick men will be locked in for this chance at a bunch finish. The finale into Amiens includes a late right hook inside the final kilometer, but after that it’s straight out to the line for roughly the final 500 meters, meaning that if this does come down to a bunch kick, it’s likely to be a high-speed one.

Etixx-QuickStep’s attempt to set Mark Cavendish up for a Stage 2 win was one of the worst performances by the typically very strong leadout squad in recent memory, and the poor execution left Cav eating wind far too early in the finale. As such, he didn’t even finish among the Top 3 on the day. If Stage 5 does come down to a sprint and Cavendish is involved, I think things will likely go down just a bit differently. He should be the fastest rider in this race, and in a big bunch sprint he will be hard to beat, especially if his (usually) solid leadout train can get it together.

André Greipel is probably the most likely to challenge Cavendish in a sprint, but I’m not reading too much into the fact that Greipel won their first faceoff—the Etixx train was beat after a long day, and Greipel was able to rely on Cavendish himself for a great leadout. That seems unlikely to happen again. Greipel has terrific top speed regardless of the situation, but beating Cavendish a second time, not to mention all the other sprint favorites, will be a challenge.

Alexander Kristoff hasn’t made a big impact yet in this Tour de France but a bunch kick would be a great opportunity for him to change that. Kept out of contention on a Stage 4 that looked well-tailored to his skills by a mechanical, Kristoff will be determined to make something happen on Stage 5. Given how strong he’s been so far this year, I’m expecting him to contend for victory.

Giant-Alpecin gave away the win on Stage 4 by not chasing down a late attack by Tony Martin. They were probably afraid of leading out other riders to the stage win, but given the alternative of not having any chance at the win at all, it seems like a pretty foolish decision. In any case, the team will have another opportunity on Stage 5. I’ve always said that John Degenkolb’s pure speed is an underrated aspect of his very versatile game, and I do think he’s capable of winning even a big bunch kick against other favorites.

Peter Sagan has shown blazing form in this race, nearly beating the powerful André Greipel in a drag race on Stage 2. With another chance at a Tour stage win, something that’s eluded him for a long time now. Like Degenkolb, Sagan sometimes gets overlooked as a top sprinter because of his versatility, but don’t count him out even in a big bunch kick.

Nacer Bouhanni seems very likely to come out of that final turn in a good position given his ability to slot himself in perfectly for a sprint finish, and from there, he should be able to rely on his great burst of speed to fight for a result. That said, against this startlist, a win will be a challenge. He’s had plenty of success this year in lower-level races, and in a Dauphiné devoid of any other top-tier sprinting talent, but so far in 2015 he has yet to take a big victory over the caliber of riders in this race.

Arnaud Demaré, Bryan Coquard, Sam Bennett, Tyler Farrar, Michael Matthews, and Davide Cimolai are other riders who will hope to be in the mix on Stage 5, one of the few great opportunities in this Tour de France for the fast finishers.

VeloHuman Stage 5 Favorites

1. Mark Cavendish | 2. André Greipel | 3. Alexander Kristoff

What do you think? Let me know on Twitter @VeloHuman, and be sure to follow for more analysis and commentary during the race. Check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 5. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 7, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 4 Preview

Stage 4: Seraing › Cambrai – 223.5km

On the heels of another thrilling early stage in the 2015 Tour de France (won by Joaquim Rodríguez atop the Mur de Huy), the fourth day of the Tour brings the Classics-style opening to the race to a cobbled finale in northern France. It’s a comparatively long stage at 223.5 kilometers, and though mostly flat (there is only one categorized climb, a Cat. 4, early on in the day), a collection of seven cobblestone sectors will offer plenty of challenges to make things interesting.

The first comes about halfway through the day, and then the final six come between the 50km-to-go mark and the 10km-to-go mark, in relatively rapid succession and with never more than 10 kilometers without cobbles inside the final 50 kilometers of racing.

It’s important to point out here that the parcours of the cobbled stage in the 2015 Tour looks a bit different from the parcours of the decisive Stage 5 of the 2014 Tour. On the one hand, this day will be longer than that one was, by about 70 kilomteters. On the other hand, the cobbled sectors aren’t quite as vicious this year. At the moment, the weather forecast does call for some difficult conditions for Stage 4, though things don’t appear to be as dire as they were for last year’s cobbled stage. Still, things could get pretty windy, and there is some chance of rain.

After a painful crash in Stage 3, Fabian Cancellara has abandoned the race, but there are still plenty of big-name Classics riders on the startlist who have had their sights on this stage since it was announced months ago. The GC riders, on the other hand, will be holding on as best they can, hoping to limit potential losses, especially after what happened in last year’s cobblestone ride, where Vincenzo Nibali took a massive chunk of time over all of his rivals on the rough roads in France. Expect to see all sorts of attacks, expect to see a few crashes, and definitely expect to see a severely reduced peloton near the end of the day—at the same time, however, don’t be too surprised if this ends in a reduced sprint. The road is pretty flat from start to finish and the riders aren’t taking on the Arenberg Trench or the Carrefour de l’Arbre, which could allow things to stay compact at the front for those tough enough to survive the long day.

Alexander Kristoff, winner of the 2015 Tour of Flanders, is terrific on this sort of terrain. He showed in De Ronde this year that he is fully capable of winning a bike race by getting into a decisive move far from the finish line; he’s also an elite sprinter, one of the best in the race, and that combination makes him dangerous here. He proved his form with a stage win in the Tour de Suisse, and should be ready for action here in the Tour’s Stage 4. Watch out for teammate Luca Paolini as well.

John Degenkolb took a Roubaix victory this year in an impressive style of his own, also jumping into a small move late in the race and closing a sizeable gap to a lead group mostly of his own accord to take the win. Like Kristoff, he’s got proven ability as a Classics specialist, not just as a sprinter who can handle cobbles. I’m not as confident that the form is quite at the level it needs to be, but Degenkolb will be among the very top favorites for this stage.

Peter Sagan has already racked up one 2nd-place finish in this Tour after collecting quite a few last year. He’ll have another chance for a big result (for him, a win is obviously the most ideal result here) on Stage 4. Sagan very nearly pipped André Greipel in a pure sprint on Stage 2, suggesting that he’s on absolutely blazing form right now—the biggest question for the versatile Slovakian is whether or not he’ll have the freedom to get aggressive with the team’s main focus in this race being Alberto Contador’s GC chances. I think he’ll have some breathing room if the opportunities are there, but I don’t expect him to get involved in anything from too far out.

Greg Van Avermaet has yet to take a marquee Spring Classics victory but he’s always on point on the cobbles, and not bad in a fast finish either. Van Avermaet has looked very strong these past few weeks, and even finished 15th on the Mur de Huy on Stage 3 (ahead of names like Urán, Bardet, Barguil, Peraud, and many others). This is a great opportunity for a Tour victory for him, so expect to see some aggression late on in the stage.

Sep Vanmarcke doesn’t have quite the finishing kick that some of the other contenders here bring to the table, meaning that he’ll need to try to break clear on the rough terrain. If the weather is indeed bad, the opportunities will certainly be there. The form of the Belgian Classics specialist tends to quiet down every year after the spring, but with a great chance for a win in the sport’s biggest race, I think it’s fair to expect Vanmarcke to be in decent shape and hunting success here.

Lars Boom won last year’s crazy cobbled stage, and he delivered a few good results in the Classics with new team Astana this year. Expect another good performance on the cobbles of the Tour this year. Zdenek Stybar would probably prefer a tougher parcours but he’s a well-rounded rider who can make something happen on almost any terrain, and should fight with the top favorites for the win. Edvald Boasson Hagen has been in great shape lately and will be looking to collect some redemption after a Classics season marred by injury. Sylvain Chavanel also had a disappointing spring campaign but he’s also shown strong form at times this year and could thrive on Stage 4.

André Greipel flashed good form throughout the Classics this year and could surprise people in this stage—it’s flat enough that a flat finish could be in store. Bad weather could deter his chances though; he was great in the nasty conditions of Stage 3 on Monday but in his career he’s generally been less successful in the wet. Arnaud Demaré is another quick man with the ability to handle a few cobbles. Bryan Coquard and Sam Bennett could be up there as well, and don’t count out Mark Cavendish, who has won some big cobbled races in the past.

VeloHuman Stage 4 Favorites

1. Alexander Kristoff | 2. Peter Sagan | 3. John Degenkolb

Be sure to follow VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 4. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 6, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 2 Preview

Stage 2: Utrecht › Zélande – 166km

After Rohan Dennis took a somewhat surprising Stage 1 victory, the Tour de France will stay in the Netherlands for Stage 2. A glimpse of the profile might give one the impression that the day will be a cut and dry sprint-fest, but the weather forecast might have something else in mind.

166 kilometers of pancake flat, Stage 2 certainly has the parcours to favor the sprinters, but crosswinds of the coastal Netherlands and a potential for rain in the afternoon will likely make this interesting. We can probably expect the echelons and the constant battling for safer positions typical of bike racing in this part of the world, which will challenge anyone with stage aspirations long before a potential bunch gallop to the finish line.

The profile suits Mark Cavendish, who is the best pure sprinter in this race, and while the weather will make this stage harder to predict than it might otherwise be, he should still be the favorite. Not only is Cavendish an excellent sprinter; he also happens to ride for Classics super-team Etixx-Quick-Step. If there is any squad likely to benefit from the conditions, it’s Cav’s own team.

André Greipel’s also-Belgian Lotto-Soudal team will be comfortable in questionable conditions as well, and in-form Greipel might actually be able to challenge Cavendish even in a straight up sprint. He has a good chance here, especially if his teammates can help put the pressure on his rivals.

Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff is great in a pure sprint, but he really shines after a tough day in the saddle. The worse the weather is on Stage 2, the better his chances will become. He’s one of several riders in the Tour, in fact, who combine Classics grit with sprinting prowess. John Degenkolb, Peter Sagan, and Arnaud Demaré are others. Sagan, in particular, could try to get aggressive and maybe attempt to leave some of sprinting opponents behind on the road to Zélande to make for an easier finale. Sam Bennett, Nacer Bouhanni, Greg Van Avermaet, the MTN duo of Tyler Farrar and Edvald Boasson Hagen, Bryan Coquard and Michael Matthews are others with a chance on Stage 2.

VeloHuman Stage 2 Favorites

1. Mark Cavendish | 2. André Greipel | 3. Alexander Kristoff

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 2. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 4, 2015
Paris-Roubaix 2015 Preview

After weeks of exciting racing in Northern Europe, the grand finale of the Cobbled Classics has arrived. Paris-Roubaix gets underway Sunday morning in the small town of Compiegne, about an hour North of Paris by car, and after roughly six hours of racing, 2015 will crown its third Monument winner.

The Route

The route of Paris-Roubaix 2015 is much like the route of Paris-Roubaix 2014, with the same few sectors of especially vicious cobbles likely to force selection. Its name notwithstanding, Paris-Roubaix starts in the town of Compiègne, about an hour north of Paris. The first 98 km are, comparatively, quite easy, but then the peloton will hit the first of twenty-seven classified cobbled sections.

The Troisvilles sector that kicks things off is not among the hardest but after nearly 100 km of growing tension there will be a mad dash for position and things are likely to get a bit chippy. Other sectors of only moderate difficulty follow, until the first five-star sector, the Arenberg trench, reached at kilometer 158. 2.4 km of very challenging cobbles, plenty of riders see their Roubaix hopes meet an early demise on the rough terrain. The run-up to the Arenberg is typically where the action starts in earnest in Paris-Roubaix, and after that, it doesn’t stop, with several difficult sectors to follow before another particularly challenging sector, Mons-en-Pévèle. 204.5 km into the race, it is a very long stretch of cobblestones at 3 kilometers, and a place likely to see a few long-range attackers attempting to get clear.

After a few more cobbled sectors comes the final five-star challenge, the Carrefour de l’Arbre, 2.1 km of particularly nasty cobbles. As the pack, or what’s left of it, will hit this section with only 17 kilometers remaining in the race, it’s the perfect spot to launch an attack. Those who survive the Carrefour de l’Arbre will only face three more comparatively easy cobbled sections before the race finishes with 800 meters in the Roubaix velodrome.

“Anything can happen” is a mantra often used and reused to describe bike races, but nowhere else does it ring true quite like it does here. Positioning is critical, with the peloton stretching out and tightening up again constantly, and with attacks flying at all times. On this difficult terrain, mechanical problems are always a major concern, and in so many of the difficult sections along the road to Roubaix, help can be a long time coming if a rider needs a new wheel. Talking to VeloHuman at the team presentation, Heinrich Haussler noted: “The whole race, you get a flat tire in the wrong spot, you might as well just jump in the car.”

The Contenders

Few races reward pure strength the way Paris-Roubaix does, with its practically pancake-flat parcours and its bruising cobbled sectors that favor those riders with a bit of weight to keep them from bouncing around on the difficult road surface. Simply put, it’s a race that strongly favors the powerful cobbled specialists, especially those with good bike handling skills.

Etixx-QuickStep is bursting at the seams with Classics specialists, and yet they still have not come away with a top-level win on the cobbles this year. This is their last chance, but they will have a great opportunity to make things right here. Niki Terpstra is the defending champion, and the Dutch 30-year-old has shown strong form throughout the spring races in 2015. His 2nd in the Tour of Flanders proved his excellent fitness right now, and given his elite soloing talent, he makes for a great card to play for EQS here. Zdenek Stybar, though, might be the prime pick for the Belgian superteam. His combination of bike handling skills, endurance, and a nice finishing kick are perfect for this race, and he’s come close here in the past. The tooth problems that plagued him in Flanders have been fixed, and he’s shown great form this season. Stijn Vandenbergh is another very strong option for the team. QuickStep can send one rider after another off the front here and that puts them in prime position to finally come away with a win in the top Classics.

Alexander Kristoff comes in as the big name on everyone’s minds after his stunning Flanders win. Roubaix has not been a great race for him in the past but with the form he has shown lately and his incredible skillset, there’s no reason why this shouldn’t be another opportunity for him to win a big event. However, it won’t be easy for Katusha to corral what are likely to be constant attacks from Kristoff’s rivals (even with a very strong Luca Paolini on the team), and favorite status won’t help Kristoff either. Knowing how fast he will be in the velodrome, every other rival in this race will look to leave Kristoff behind at any opportunity, and that will make things pretty difficult for the Norwegian. He’s obviously a very dangerous rider, but pulling off a Flanders-Roubaix double would be an enormous feat.

John Degenkolb is the other “sprinter” near the top of the favorites discussion right now. Runner-up in 2014, he’s one of the few who might be able to beat Kristoff in a sprint, and he mentioned his and his team’s very high levels of confidence multiple times at the team presentation in Compiégne, saying that he has no fear if the race comes down to a sprint battle with Kristoff in the velodrome. He’s obviously strong this year after winning Milano-Sanremo, but his results in the other Cobbled Classics haven’t quite been as expected. Still, he’s already shown how well he can ride in this race, and even though he just won a Monument Classic last month, Kristoff’s recent success has taken all of the spotlight perhaps allowing him to enjoy a bit of under-the-radar status.

Bradley Wiggins rode to 9th here last year with practically no cobbled racing prep, and this year he’s got his sights set completely on a Roubaix win to close out his Team Sky career. In a race where time trialists often thrive, Wiggins has the requisite power for a big result. The question is whether he has the handling skills and the Classics savvy—many ridres spend years gaining experience here, gradually chipping away at results. Wiggins has been incredibly successful in his career when he has put his mind to even a very difficult goal, but this is asking a lot. He also doesn’t have much of a finishing kick, meaning that he’ll basically need to drop all of his rivals. He has a shot, but it won’t be easy. Geraint Thomas, on blazing form this Classics season, has done well here in the past and should do well again. Ian Stannard and Luke Rowe are nice alternatives for Sky.

Sep Vanmarcke was the runner-up in 2013, missing out on the victory because he couldn’t outsprint Fabian Cancellara in the velodrome. To me, he seems much quicker at the line these days, but he’s been lacking something in the Cobbled Classics this year. He can handle the cobbles more adeptly than almost anyone in the sport and that makes him deadly here but, simply put, he’ll need to better here than he was in Flanders.

Greg Van Avermaet has not had the success here that he’s had in other cobbled races but his speedy finishing kick and excellent team (with strong Daniel Oss as a second) makes him dangerous. Peter Sagan only notched his first Top 10 here last year, but his Classics prep this season has left him looking more powerful and perhaps better suited to this race than he was in the past. More under-the-radar than usual after weeks of missing out on big results, he could benefit from a rare lack of eyes pointed in his direction.

Lotto Soudal has a three-pronged attack with Jürgen Roelandts, Tiesj Benoot, and the surprising André Greipel. Similarly, IAM Cycling has the trio of Sylvain Chavanel, Heinrich Haussler, and the surprising Martin Elmiger—Haussler told VH that Elmiger said prior to Flanders that he is in the form of his life, and he proved it at the Ronde. That could come in handy in this race where having multiple strong teammates in crucial. Astana’s Lars Boom has looked strong this year and this race suits his cyclocross background and time trialing prowess. Cannondale’s Sebastian Langeveld, Lampre’s Filippo Pozzato, FDJ’s Arnaud Démare, Trek’s Stijn Devolder, and OGE’s Jens Keukeleire are on the list of outsiders with a shot in Paris-Roubaix.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Zdenek Stybar
Podium: Bradley Wiggins, Alexander Kristoff
Other Top Contenders: Niki Terpstra, Sep Vanmarcke, Peter Sagan, John Degenkolb, Geraint Thomas, Greg Van Avermaet, Stijn Vandenbergh

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis (from the roadside) of Paris-Roubaix 2015.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Brendan Ryan.

April 11, 2015
Gent-Wevelgem 2015 Preview

Geraint Thomas provided an exciting start to the WorldTour leg of Classics season with his bold move to win E3 Harelbeke on Friday. Now it’s on to Gent-Wevelgem.

The Route

A 240 kilometer trek through Flanders, starting in Deinze (outside of Ghent) and ending in Wevelgem, the race has a flat enough finale that things are often decided in a sprint. However, cobbled climbs along the way often make things a bit more interesting, whittling the peloton down to the tougher riders in the crowd or helping to launch the more aggressive types to victory from afar. There are nine officially recognized climbs on the profile (several of those are repeat ascents of the same uphill challenge). They are all crested after the 110 kilometer mark and before the 200 kilometer mark—the first 100 km and the final 30 are relatively flat.

The short but steep Baneberg, Kemmelberg, and Monteberg trio of climbs, a few kilometers southwest of Ieper, are done twice, and the conclusion of that second run-through also marks the end of the hellingen in Gent-Wevelgem. The difficult cobbles of the Kemmelberg, in particular, could be a battleground in this race, especially with the help of a common visitor to the event that seems scheduled to make another appearance in 2015: bad weather. As of Saturday, rain and very strong winds are both set to join the peloton for Gent-Wevelgem. Even with a less topographically challenging final 30 kilometers, the combination of tough cobbled climbs (and the often hairy descents that follow) in the middle of the day and likely difficult conditions throughout will surely do their damage.

The Contenders

The dearth of long climbs on the profile, especially close to the finish line, makes this a major target for the top sprinter’s in the peloton, but the bergs, the cobbles, the race distance, and the Flanders conditions will make the tougher quick men the top favorites for victory in this race, though a few of the more aggressive Classics specialists will certainly have a chance at taking this win for themselves.

Alexander Kristoff is at home in terrible conditions, comfortable on the cobbles, capable of a little climbing, and usually fresher than most after a very long day. He also happens to pack a powerful sprint. Though probably just a hair behind the likes of Marcel Kittel in terms of pure speed, here in the Classics, Kristoff’s makes up for the just slightly lower velocity with pure grit. There is no guarantee that this race ends in a sprint, but if it does, it’s hard to look past Kristoff’s abilities. He’s likely to hold on longer than most even if a high pace over the cobbled climbs starts dropping other sprinters, and if he’s there at the end of the day, few can match him in speed.

If he’s there as well, however, 2014 John Degenkolb will give Kristoff a run for his money. Already victorious over Kristoff in Milano-Sanremo, Degenkolb seems to get better and better every year both in the versatility department and in the top speed department. He’s a proven rider here in Gent-Wevelgem and on Flanders terrain in general. He might prefer a few more uphill challenges (his climbing legs are better than most) to maybe make things more selective but even if this race is contested in a large bunch sprint at the end of the day, Degenkolb will be a strong contender to repeat.

Mark Cavendish doesn’t have the same sort of versatility as some of the more Classics-oriented quick men here, but he is probably the fastest in a battle of pure speed. It won’t be easy making it to the line in the lead group, especially given the weather forecast, but if Cavendish can do it, he’ll have a great chance here—EQS teammate Matteo Trentin (3rd in E3) will be a strong second option in the sprints. Lotto Soudal’s André Greipel, who often rivals Cav in the pure sprints in stage races, and who has come close here in the past, is another very fast rider who will hope to hold on for a sprint at the end of a long day.

2014 runner-up Arnaud Démare has not had as much success early this season as he would have liked, but he is a big talent on this sort of parcours and motivated to prove himself as FDJ’s sole top name in the sprints this season. The rider he edged out for 2nd last year, Peter Sagan, will have an interesting choice to make this year: will he try to hold on for a sprint and test his luck against a pack of other fast finishers (as he did unsuccessfully in 2014) or will he launch a late attack and try to catch them all by surprise (as he did successfully in 2013, when he won the race)? The smart choice would seem to be to try to get away in a smaller group here, as he has not had much success in the bunch sprint lately. Either way, multi-talented Sagan is a threat in any scenario.

Giacomo Nizzolo has never finished this race, but given his skillset, he’ll be in with a chance. He’s a powerful sprinter, with a recent win at the GP Nobili, who doesn’t mind a long day. Unfortunately for Nizzolo, he crashed out of Dwars Door Vlaanderen and his current level of readiness to face the difficult Belgian roads again in a major race is unclear.

Nacer Bouhanni, Elia Viviani, Heinrich Haussler, Tyler Farrar, Sam Bennett, Jens Debusschere, and JJ Lobato are other quick men who will have a chance if it all comes down to a sprint.

Several familiar names seem the most likely protagonists to shake up the race with a late attack. Sep Vanmarcke, on great form right now, 2nd here in 2010, and typically unfazed by bad weather, is a particularly dangerous rider right now. His continually improving sprinting ability makes his case even stronger. Pedal problems plagued slowed him at E3, but that should only make him hungrier for more racing these next few days.

Greg Van Avermaet may not have the sprinting chops of the top quick men here but he could still win in a reduced gallop, if he is feeling comfortable and still confident after a bad crash at E3 Harelbeke.

E3 Harelbeke winner Geraint Thomas is one of the sport’s most versatile riders, capable of soloing, climbing, and even sprinting at a high level. This parcours doesn’t suit him quite as well as E3’s did but there are still plenty of opportunities to attack here.

The powerful EQS trio of Zdenek Stybar, Stijn Vandenbergh, and Niki Terpstra, MTN-Qhubeka’s new acquisition Edvald Boasson Hagen, Filippo Pozzato, Lars Boom, and Jurgen Roelandts are others with a chance of winning solo or from a small group.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: John Degenkolb, Mark Cavendish
Other Top Contenders: Peter Sagan, Sep Vanmarcke, Greg Van Avermaet, Arnaud Démare, Giacomo Nizzolo, André Greipel, Matteo Trentin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis.

-Dane Cash

March 28, 2015