Episode 6: E3 Harelbeke + Gent-Wevelgem 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride takes on both of the weekend’s WorldTour one-day events in a double pre-race show of E3 Harelbeke and Gent-Wevelgem.
[powerpress]
Sharing a weekend, many of the same riders, and similar Belgian terrain, E3 Harelbeke and Gent-Wevelgem make for a great pair of races. VeloHuman and Cyclocosm explore the routes, the startlists, and the narratives, with a bit of help from AG2R-La Mondiale’s Hugo Houle.
Photo by shirokazan.
Milano-Sanremo, the first one-day race on the 2015 WorldTour and also the first “Monument Classic” of the season, has almost arrived! The grueling event, which will take riders from Italy’s Lombardy region to its Ligurian coast this Sunday, combines an overlong race distance with a few topographic features along the way, and often a sizeable dose of unpleasant weather. Even in a sport that prizes toughness, Milano-Sanremo demands grit and endurance on another level, which is why a big reason why its list of winners includes some of cycling most legendary hard men (one of the many topics discussed in the Recon Ride pre-race show, which you should also check out).
Though Milano-Sanremo has undergone a number of route changes in the past few years, the 293-kilometer route of the 2015 edition is similar to that of the 2014 edition (lacking a few of the climbs often planned for this race), with some alterations in the final kilometers. The peloton will set out from Milan and enjoy mostly flat roads for over a hundred kilometers. The pavement angles upward for the long, low-gradient climb of the Passo del Turchino a bit before the midway point, and that ascent is followed by a fast descent towards the coast.
From there, it’s still over a hundred kilometers along the Mediterranean in the direction of San Remo. Things stay flat for a while, but around kilometer 240, the peloton will start to hit a few small bumps, leading into a pair of more difficult late climbs likely to break up the peloton before the finish. First comes the Cipressa, 5.6 kilometers at a 4.1% average gradient. The riders will reach the top with a little over 20 km to go, take on a fast descent, and then speed over flat roads until they hit the foot of the Poggio climb. 3.7 kilometers at 3.7%, the Poggio does have a few steep sections (one stretch of 8%), and its otherwise unimposing gradient is of course made much more intimidating by the fact that the riders won’t reach the climb until they’ve already ridden 280 kilometers. The top of the Poggio is 5.5 kilometers from the finish, and followed by a fast descent that doesn’t even out until there are only 2.3 kilometers to go. From there, it’s a flat run towards the finishing straight on the Via Roma, a classic conclusion to Milano-Sanremo that has returned after many years of being left out of the route. With the reintroduction of the Via Roma, the finish line in this year’s race is almost a kilometer closer to the bottom of the Poggio than it was last year.
As of the day before the race, the weather forecast calls for some rain, though at the moment it seems the peloton may escape the torrential downpours common in the area this time of year.
Given the parcours, the likeliest outcome for Milano-Sanremo 2015 would appear to be a sprint showdown among the more versatile quick men of the peloton. The late climbs will give the opportunists a chance to try to get up the road and stay clear for the victory, and a few riders stand out as particularly likely protagonists in that scenario, but it won’t be easy to hold of the charging pack on these relatively low gradients. On the other hand, there are a few pure sprinters who might be favorites in any other high-speed finale but who might struggle here after such a long day.
Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff is the defending champion, the victor of the 2014 edition in a bunch sprint that saw him well ahead of several very speedy finishers. Kristoff’s ability to survive the grueling distance without losing too much of his kick was crucial to his win over the other sprinters last year, and it remains a strong reason to expect big things from him again this year. Kristoff also has the experienced Luca Paolini to help him navigate the day’s difficulties. He has been in excellent form all season, winning sprints in several stage races, and that only makes him appear a stronger candidate here. The one question mark for Kristoff is whether he’ll be close enough to the front of the race as the Via Roma approaches. The reduced distance between the bottom of the Poggio descent and the finish line will give Kristoff less time to regain ground if he loses position on the last climb. Kristoff is not a bad climber, for a sprinter, but there are other quick men who can go uphill more comfortably, and they look to be Kristoff’s biggest challengers should this come down to a sprint.
Tinkoff-Saxo’s Peter Sagan has been close to success in this race before, but he has come up short at the line. Gerald Ciolek (surprisingly) denied him of a victory in a reduced sprint in 2013, and although he came to the line with the main pack in 2014, he was a nonfactor in the sprint. The altered finish may benefit Sagan, whose climbing legs set him apart from the other quick men. More so than most, he is capable of launching a late attack on the Poggio, or at least holding the wheel of someone who does. If some of top sprinters in the peloton have faded by the time the finish nears, Sagan will be in a prime position to pick up his first Monument win.
Another sprinter with capable climbing legs making the start is Giant-Alpecin’s John Degenkolb. His 2014 MSR campaign was ruined by a late puncture, but soon after, he took 2nd in Paris-Roubaix, proving that distance is not a problem for him. He has continually improved in the top speed department over the last few years, and even against the biggest-name sprinters in the world he can hold his own; when a long day and a late climb enter the equation, Degenkolb becomes even more dangerous. He hasn’t quite had the results he would have hoped for coming into the race, racking up a number of 2nd-places to go with one win early in the season in Dubai, but if he is timing his peak right around now, Degenkolb will be a great candidate for victory.
Movistar’s Juan José Lobato sports an excellent combination of climbing legs and sprinting prowess, and he has used that skillset to pick up several wins already this season (denying Degenkolb on multiple occasions). He will hope to build on his 4th-place here last year, and with the form he has shown so far in 2015, that seems like a real possibility. Should Movistar feel that Lobato’s bid is in doubt near the end of the day, the team could try to send Alejandro Valverde up the road on one of the two late climbs.
Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge has a similarly fine-tuned skillset combining climbing legs and a vicious finishing kick. His Paris-Nice victory suggests that the form is there as well. For Matthews, the main question mark is whether he can handle the distance. He doesn’t really have any results to speak of in overlong races. He could certainly change that at this year’s Milano-Sanremo, but it will be a foray into new territory.
Mark Cavendish headlines a collection of elite pure sprinters in attendance who will hope that their explosiveness is not too diminished by the time the peloton reaches the finish in San Remo. Cavendish has of course won this race in the past (in 2009) but it was a much younger Mark Cavendish taking the victory then. On last year’s parcours, similar to this year’s, Cavendish was with the main pack at the end of the day, but was unable to come away with more than a Top 5 after the long journey from Milan. With the Via Roma finish coming closer to the bottom of the Poggio, Cavendish will have to work even harder to maintain a strong position and his energy in the finale, making his candidacy as a top favorite questionable despite his legitimate claim to the title of fastest field sprinter on the startlist. Etixx-Quickstep does have alternatives on the roster in Michal Kwiatkowski and Zdenek Stybar, both on blazing form and capable of putting in a strong attack on a late climb in a one-day race.
Like Mark Cavendish, André Greipel is another powerful pure sprinter hoping to survive the long day with his strong kick intact. Coming off a sprint stage win at Paris-Nice, Greipel clearly has the sprinting form to contend in a bunch gallop, and in fact, he has made it a stated goal of this season to finally pick up a big one-day victory after years of near misses. If his pursuit of such a target has led him to improve his power and endurance, he will be a real contender here. Lotto-Soudal may look to Tony Gallopin as a second card to play near the finale.
The very long list of other quick men with a chance in a potential sprint, all of them with varying levels of versatility, includes Cofidis’s Nacer Bouhanni, the MTN-Qhubeka duo of Gerald Ciolek and Edvald Boasson Hagen, FDJ’s Arnaud Démare, Sky’s Ben Swift (3rd last year, though entering the race with uncertain form this year), Cannondale-Garmin’s Ramunas Navardauskas, IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, Lampre-Merida’s duo of Niccolo Bonifazio and Davide Cimolai, Astana’s Andrea Guardini, and Bora-Argon 18’s Sam Bennett.
Fabian Cancellara headlines the list of riders who could be looking to jump clear of the peloton in the final few kilometers. This parcours, without some of the uphill challenges of past editions, will make it very difficult for anyone to get away from the pack, but if anyone can do it, Fabian Cancellara is a prime pick. His time trial victory in Tirreno-Adriatico suggests that he is in formidable soloing shape at the moment, and he has done a great deal to work on his sprint this year should he come to the line with a small group. Cancellara was a surprising 2nd in last year’s bunch sprint, suggesting that he’s even a danger if he can’t shed the pack on the Poggio or the Cipressa. Having landed podium results each of the last four years, another strong placing seems practically guaranteed this year. Giacomo Nizzolo, fresh off a GP Nobili victory, offers Trek another option.
BMC’s duo of Philippe Gilbert and an on-form Greg Van Avermaet, Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali, Sky’s Geraint Thomas and Ian Stannard, IAM Cycling’s Sylvain Chavanel, and Lampre-Merida’s Pippo Pozzato and Rui Costa are other riders to keep an eye on when the attacks start to fly around the Cipressa and the Poggio.
Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: John Degenkolb, Peter Sagan
Other Top Contenders: Fabian Cancellara, JJ Lobato, Michal Kwiatkowski, Greg Van Avermaet, Mark Cavendish, André Greipel, Michael Matthews
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary and analysis of the race, and don’t forget to listen to the Recon Ride pre-race show for plenty more on the year’s first Monument. Check back soon for previews and roadside coverage of the upcoming Volta a Catalunya!
-Dane Cash
Photo by Martin Mystère.
Episode 4: Milano-Sanremo 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride takes on the first Monument Classic of 2015.
[powerpress]
The first WorldTour one-day event on the calendar and the first “Monument” of the season, Sunday’s 293-kilometer ride from Milan to San Remo gives the Recon Ride podcast plenty to discuss. Will Alexander Kristoff defend his title? Can Peter Sagan finally get that marquee victory? Will an Italian rider show up to contend in a major Italian Classic? VeloHuman and Cyclocosm team up to cover all the major storylines.
Photo by Martin Mystère.
The cold-weather months may be light on road racing, but they do provide an excellent opportunity to take stock of the big performances of the past season with an eye for future potential. Looking at the big picture of races from January all the way up to October, we can get a pretty good idea of the riders that made the most emphatic arrivals this season, and also of those already-known up-and-comers who took clear steps forward into the spotlight with high-visibility results. This sort of prospective retrospective is always nice to have in the middle of the following season, as a barometer of which rising stars are on track in their progression, and which have fallen short of expectations.
It’s hard to see anyone other than Fabio Aru as the year’s most emphatic arrival. He had been touted as Italian cycling’s next big thing for some time (in last season’s post-year retrospective, I named him as a likely break-out candidate), but he’d never even been on the podium in a WorldTour race before this year. Hard to believe, given that he’s now a three-time Grand Tour stage winner and two-time Grand Tour Top 5 finisher at age 24. A pure climber with an aggressive streak, Aru has the right combination of talent, racing acumen, and guile to pick up victories with bold long-range strikes on the sport’s most challenging slopes. The long, flat time trials are a major weakness in his game, but as chrono-light routes become more and more en vogue, Aru should continue to thrive in the Grand Tours. Interestingly, he doesn’t have much in the way of one-week stage race results to his name, but his skillset would seem well-suited to those too. In short, Aru should be primed for plenty more success as he continues to develop, and continue to develop he will: he doesn’t turn 25 until after the 2015 Giro. Teammate Vincenzo Nibali may have gotten the lion’s share of Astana publicity this season (and his Tour de France victory certainly represents a worthy career progression), but Aru really took a quantum leap forward in his two Grand Tour appearances.
Where Aru made his arrival the in three-weekers, newly crowned World Champ Michal Kwiatkowski made his statements in the one-day and one-week races, racking up a slew of stellar performances in the early part of the season (winning in Strade Bianche and putting in big rides in Pais Vasco, the Ardennes, and the prologue of the Tour de Romandie, his first WorldTour victory) and then coming back with a vengeance in September, winning a stage in the Tour of Britain en route to 2nd overall and then, of course, taking the rainbow jersey in Ponferrada. It’s more of a giant step-up than an arrival, as Kwiatkowski did flash serious ability in 2013, but he turned Top 10s into podiums and victories this year. For all-around talent, Kwiatkowski rivals Alejandro Valverde in versatility. Pais Vasco was an early expression of that versatility for the young Pole: he was 2nd to Alberto Contador on the General Classification thanks to his climbing legs and his stellar ITT, but he also won the Points Jersey after being in the Top 3 in five of the six stages of the race. After narrowly missing out on the Top 10 in last year’s Tour de France, Kwiatkowski’s ride from Leeds to Paris this season was a bit of a disappointment, but it may be that Kwiatkowski just isn’t a Grand Tour GC contender at this point in his career, and with the way he has performed in the shorter races, that may be okay with him given his ability to contest all manner of one-day and one-week events.
Giant-Shimano’s Tom Dumoulin was another 1990-born all-round talent to take several steps forward this season. Dumoulin, like Kwiatkowsi, showed promise with several big rides in 2013, but he took his game to a new level in 2014, racking up a few time trial victories in big races (including the Eneco Tour) and taking third in the ITT World Champs, and also delivering several strong road race performances. Wins eluded him, but he came very close in the Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec, passed by Simon Gerrans just a few meters before the line. He also climbed well enough to hold onto 5th overall in the Tour de Suisse after getting into good position on GC early in that race with strong chrono rides. His time trial has been his biggest strength throughout his young career, but he made significant strides on the hills and at the finish line this season, and looks primed for big things on all sorts of profiles in 2015.
Alexander Kristoff has enjoyed a textbook progression over the last few years, steadily earning more and more success as he has carved out a niche on the road; in last season’s post-year impressions piece, I said that he had “established himself as a serious contender for hardman sprinter’s races going forward.” He delivered on that promise this season, winning a Monument Classic and two Tour de France stages and picking up plenty of other big results on the way. John Degenkolb, another hardman sprinter (who should challenge Kristoff on the tougher profiles for years to come), took a major leap forward this season as well. The German announced himself with five Vuelta stage wins in 2012 and had a strong 2013, but his victory in Gent-Wevelgem this spring, along with a runner-up ride at Paris-Roubaix, another collection of stage wins at the Vuelta, and several other major successes cemented his position as an elite rider on the tougher sprinters’ days. The emergence of Kristoff and Degenkolb will be a major challenge for Peter Sagan to overcome in the sprinter-friendly classics moving forward.
Stepping away from WorldTour teams, the Europe Tour provided a down-to-the-wire battle for overall supremacy between two of the year’s biggest arrivals: Topsport Vlaanderen’s Tom van Asbroeck and Bardiani – CSF’s Sonny Colbrelli. Both riders put in impressive performances at major WorldTour events early in the season (van Asbroeck in Gent-Wevelgem and Colbrelli in Milano-Sanremo), and top result after top result in the bigger Europe Tour races on the year.
WorldTour-level action was limited for both of them, but the talent (and top-end speed) is there: Van Asbroeck has a bright future in the classics, especially those where fast finishes are likely, while Colbrelli looks well-suited for bumpier sprinter-friendly days. Van Asbroeck should have plenty of opportunities to go up against prime competition next year, having signed a two-year contract with Belkin, who will appreciate his addition to their classics squad with the departure of Lars Boom. Colbrelli will stay with Bardiani – CSF, but he should continue to have chances to shine in MSR and the Giro, among other races.
23-year-old Tim Wellens has been with Lotto Belisol since 2012, but something clicked for him this season. The Giro offered the first hints of an impressive puncheur’s engine lurking under the hood; Wellens was active in long-range moves in Italy and came close to victory on multiple occasions, though a pair of 2nd places was all he had to show for his efforts. However, he didn’t have to wait too long to make good on that promise. Sitting 16th overall and 49 seconds down on GC, Tim Wellens struck out for glory from afar on Stage 6 of the Eneco Tour and held on for a decisive stage win and, ultimately, the time gap necessary to secure overall victory. He again put those punchy legs on display with a Top 10 in Plouay, and a 4th place finish in Il Lombardia among very impressive company. Lotto Belisol will be able to mount a potent two-pronged attack with Wellens and Jelle Vanendert in next year’s Ardennes and other hilly classics.
Orica-GreenEdge was able to enjoy the highly visible arrivals of multiple squad members. The Australian outfit knew that they were getting a wealth of talent when they signed the Yates twins, and both showed ability this season, with Adam Yates in particular having a breakout year. The 22-year-old took a stage and the overall victory in the Tour of Turkey and kept the foot on the gas for his next several starts, landing 5th in the Tour of California and 6th in a hotly contested Criterium du Dauphine (ahead of Tour winner Vincenzo Nibali). He won Italy’s GP Industria & Artigianato and was in prime position in a leading group of five in the final kilometers of the Clasica de San Sebastian before a crash took him out of contention. With explosive climbing legs and a willingness to take chances, Yates had plenty of success in 2014 and looks ready for more in 2015. OGE saw yet another major breakout season with Johan Esteban Chaves, a pure climbing talent with an affinity for the tough mountains.
Chaves had a promising 2012 but his 2013 was derailed by an early-season crash that left him with a number of serious injuries (including a fractured collarbone and cheekbone). He got back on track in style this year, climbing to stage wins in the Tour of California and 3rd overall in the Tour of Beijing. He likely still needs to get some mileage as a WorldTour pro before he can put in a challenge in the Grand Tours, but he’s ready to contend in the one-week races right now. Suddenly Orica-GreenEdge has multiple options in the mountains.
French cycling enjoyed a renaissance year, and Romain Bardet‘s emergence as a top-level threat was a big part of that. After a strong 2013, his progression wasn’t necessarily unexpected, but a nation of cycling fans was pleased to see him deliver on his early promise. His impressive climbing legs took him to 6th overall in the Tour (he was a flat tire in the final ITT away from 5th), and he also displayed a surprising knack for one-day success, landing in the Top 10 in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and the GP Montreal. He has a surprising kick and should make waves in the shorter climber-friendly races as he continues to develop for the Grand Tours.
Cannondale may be going through a merger/takeover, but the final year of the team as we know it saw a few impressive stage racing performances from rising stars. Neo-pro Davide Formolo, just 22, climbed to 4th in the Tour of Turkey and then a month later, against several top GC-style riders nearing their Tour de France peak form, he finished 7th overall in the Tour de Suisse. He strung together a nice collection of results in smaller one-day races as well. He should continue to develop with the new Garmin-Cannondale squad. Meanwhile, another Italian talent wearing Cannondale green took major strides forward in the Vuelta. Damiano Caruso had never been in the Top 10 in the General Classification of a WorldTour race until this season, but he picked up his first WT Top 10 in style at the Vuelta a España, where he consistently hung with the best climbers in the bunch most of the way up that race’s toughest mountains. BMC, running a bit low on GC guys as Cadel Evans retires and Samuel Sanchez nears the end of his career, will be glad to have the infusion of talent as he joins them for 2015.
Speaking of BMC, Silvan Dillier put together a nice season, picking up results in a wide variety of races and contributing to his squad’s World Championship TTT ride as well. He thrives during hard days in the saddle and has a fast finish to boot. The same could be said (and more emphatically) of the skillset of Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas. He picked up an impressive win with a late attack in the Tour de France, and he was 3rd in Quebec and 4th in Montreal. He’s always been an aggressive rider with a knack for getting clear on the harder profiles, but an improved finishing kick allowed him to contest a number of sprint finishes this year. He’s now won two Grand Tour stages, and at age 26, he’s just hitting his prime.
Michael Valgren of Tinkoff-Saxo gets the final mention. The 22-year-old has been a high-profile prospect for some time after delivering several big results in U23 and national events, but this season he sailed to a convincing victory in the Post Danmark Rundt and put in several other strong rides in big races. He was a visible figure at the Worlds Road Race, taking several shots from afar. He has a wide array of talents and a lot of raw power in the tank, and at just 22, he should be on track to land plenty more big results in 2015.
This is, of course, not an exhaustive list, but hopefully it makes for a useful catalog of the year’s biggest arrivals and most improved up-and-comers. For many of them, breakout success will lead to more focused scrutiny in 2015, which should offer plenty of interesting storylines for the upcoming season as these young rising talents try to cope with pressure to perform. To face that challenge, they will hope to get in as much recovery this offseason as possible, but January and the start of the WorldTour in Australia get closer every day.
-Dane Cash
Photos by Alberto Brevers and moz278.
Also commonly known by its older name, the Grand Prix de Plouay (Plouay being the Breton town in which it starts and finishes), the GP Ouest-France is a long and hilly circuit race. 229.1 kilometers from start to finish, the 2014 edition involves eight laps around a 26.9 kilometer circuit, followed by a single, final lap of a reduced section (13.9 km) of the larger circuit to close things out.
The route will take the peloton on several repeated trips up and over some short but challenging climbs; almost immediately after the beginning of each full lap, the pack will hit the Côte du Lezot, a little over a kilometer in length and with much of that distance at a gradient in the realm of 6%. From the top, it’s a descent followed by a long gentle ascent up to the Chapelle Sainte-Anne des Bois and, roughly, the midpoint of the circuit. After a flat section and then a quick downhill run, the pack will take on the Côte de Ty Marrec, only about a kilometer in length but with a long stretch in the middle nearing 10%.
The final lap will still look quite familiar, but with a twist: the less challenging trip to the the Chapelle Sainte-Anne des Bois will not be a part of the last lap, which cuts out almost half the distance of the full lap, thereby squeezing the ascents of the Côte du Lezot and the Côte de Ty Marrec closer together on the course for the final go-round.
The profile makes this a very open race, where a sprint finish is possible, but also where the aggressive, punchy types could conceivably escape from the bunch, most likely on the final climb of the Ty Marrec, and grab the victory for themselves. The 2013 edition ended in a sprint that was not dramatically reduced in number of contenders, though the long day did take its toll, helping Filippo Pozzato to nab a victory over other riders who would typically be faster in a sprint. A group finish may very well happen again in 2014, but the slightly amended final lap could make things interesting, reducing the amount of time that those who struggle on the Côte du Lezot will have before the next ascent begins and putting even more pressure on the heavier purer sprinter-types. Winning this race will require either the ability to charge up the steep stuff to escape the pack, the speed to outsprint them in a sprint, or some combination of both, to survive any selection and then outmatch any other survivors at the line. Ardennes-style specialists and strong-climbing sprinters are all over the startlist, with some teams bringing multiple riders for the variety of possible scenarios.
Simon Gerrans of Orica-GreenEdge is one of the most capable riders in a post-climb sprint in the entire peloton, and he showed in the Vattenfall Cyclassics, where he outsprinted Mark Cavendish and Marcel Kittel on his way to 3rd place, that he is on blazing form. He’s fast enough, especially when his opponents have begun to tire, that he’s even got a chance against the purer sprinters should a large group reach the line together, and he’s also capable of going on a solo strike if it looks to be the best move. As a true specialist for this exact sort of race, capable of winning in a number of ways, Simon Gerrans will be a top favorite. Teammate Jens Keukeleire is another excellent card to play on this rolling profile, having shown nice form with his first GC Top 10 in a WorldTour race at the recent Eneco Tour.
As an excellent escape artist, a strong climber, and a capable sprinter, BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet also has all the tools necessary to contend in this race, and his skillset was on full display in last year’s edition when he put in a late solo move and survived until he was well inside the final kilometer. A tougher finale this year may be all he needs to turn that near miss into a victory. Of all the riders in this race capable of sticking an attack, Van Avermaet, who showed his good form with an Eneco Tour victory this month, seems among the likeliest to succeed, but he can’t be counted out in a reduced bunch sprint either. Young Silvan Dillier, 9th in the Vattenfall Cyclassics, is having a great year and could be another card for BMC to play in Plouay.
Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff comes into the race riding high, having the best season of his career and fresh off his recent win at the Vattenfall Cyclassics. Always a strong sprinter with a knack for the bunch gallops coming after longer days in the saddle, Kristoff has taken his game to a new level this year, climbing particularly well and holding up over some extremely lengthy one-day races to put in top results. He doesn’t have the same uphill ability as Simon Gerrans, but if the punchier types aren’t able to make this race selective enough to drop him, they’ll have a hard time outsprinting him at the end of the day (and so will any other sprinting specialist who manages to survive). Given the difficulty of the parcours, it’s not a given the Kristoff will stick with the lead group to the end to contest victory, but if he is there for a bunch kick, it will be hard to look past anyone else. Luca Paolini will be with him, and the Italian veteran has proven a valuable second throughout the year.
Giacomo Nizzolo of Trek Factory racing is another top sprinter in attendance who could contend for victory if he can stay in good position over the last few ascents. Nizzolo came agonizingly close to winning the GP Ouest-France in 2013; he was well ahead of every other sprinter in the race with the finish line only a hundred meters away before Pippo Pozzato, who had waited much longer to start his sprint, passed him in the final few meters. As Nizzolo told VeloHuman this week, he’s extremely motivated to take the win in Plouay this year, and coming off of a runner-up performance in the Vattenfall Cyclassics, he is on sharp form. He’s one of the few riders in this race who has the top-end speed to challenge Kristoff should it come down to bunch sprint. Trek is fully committed to his chances, and Stijn Devolder and Danilo Hondo make up a strong support squad.
Giant-Shimano has the talented Luka Mezgec for a potential group finish. It won’t be easy to keep the young fast man at the front of affairs, but if he’s there, he’ll be a strong contender as one of the top-tier sprinters in the race, with some strong leadout riders for support.
Lotto Belisol has quite hand of cards to play, and it would be a big surprise if they didn’t have at least one rider in the Top 10 at the end of the day. Jurgen Roelandts is strong in a fast finish after a long day in the saddle; he was 4th here last year. Tony Gallopin has been away from competition for a few weeks, but he is a speedy finisher with a particular talent for getting into late moves. Tim Wellens showed immense strength in winning the Eneco Tour this year and he could get aggressive in the last lap. Jelle Vanendert is a specialist on the classics-style climbs who could try to get into a move over the Ty Marrec. It’s very hard to pick any one rider out of this group as the likeliest to succeed, but whatever happens, Lotto has several elite options for this GP Ouest-France.
OPQS is another well-staffed squad with plenty of options. Gianni Meersman is probably their best, on good form and particularly dangerous in a reduced sprint, with Matteo Trentin as a great alternative in that scenario should Meersman miss out, but Jan Bakelants is in good shape as well, and he’ll be among the top candidates to break clear of the pack in the last lap. Michal Kwiatkowski is on unknown form after a long break from racing, but he deserves a mention in any hilly one-day race, given a skillset perfectly tailored to the Plouay parcours.
Sky brings a strong one-two punch in Ben Swift and 2012 winner Edvald Boasson Hagen. Swift has the ability to hang on over some tough climbs to fight it out in the sprint. After a strong RideLondon, he didn’t perform up to his expectations in last week’s Vattenfall Cyclassics, but he told VH on Friday that he is feeling good at the moment, and that his rough day on the bike in Hamburg may have simply been a bit of training fatigue after a hard midweek block. This parcours certainly suits him. Edvald Boasson Hagen hasn’t shown the sprinting ability this year that he once displayed, but he’s still dangerous on a hilly parcours that could very well split up the pack.
AG2R has last year’s 3rd place finisher Samuel Dumoulin for a potential sprint, and they also have Blel Kadri, Romain Bardet and Christophe Riblon if they want to take an aggressive approach. Europcar has a very strong long-distance specialist in Cyril Gautier, and a top-notch sprinter in Bryan Coquard. Garmin-Sharp also has one strong rider for a sprint in Tyler Farrar and a few others who could look to get aggressive in classics specialist Sebastian Langeveld and in the versatile Tom Jelte-Slagter, a late addition to the startlist who is on uncertain form, but who does have the skillset to put in an excellent result on a profile like this if he’s in good shape. Astana could back Borut Bozic or Francesco Gavazzi in a bunch kick, or they could try to send Enrico Gasparotto, Andriy Grivko, or Maxim Iglinskiy up the road.
Sylvain Chavanel is a rider who could be very dangerous if he can escape from the pack, and he is most definitely on good form after winning the Tour du Poitou-Charentes this week. IAM Cycling also has Heinrich Haussler if this ends in a bunch gallop. Lampre-Merida’s young sprinting talent Davide Cimolai was an impressive 7th in Hamburg last week, and could be looking to get involved in a potential sprint here. Rui Costa is also on the startlist and obviously a dangerous rider on this profile, but he hasn’t raced since withdrawing from the Tour. Cannondale’s Elia Viviani landed a Top 10 in this race last year and if he can make it to the line, he’s shown nice form recently; versatile Marco Marcato will be a nice alternative. Movistar could try to set up a strong JJ Lobato for the sprint, with Fran Ventoso as a nice alternative. Romain Feillu of Bretagne – Séché Environnement has finished in the Top 10 in this race twice and could be another outside contender in a sprint. Matti Breschel of Tinkoff-Saxo is another who could be in the mix in a fast finish. Bardiani-CSF has options with the very speedy Nicola Ruffoni, the speedy and also strong-climbing Enrico Battaglin and Sonny Colbrelli, and the always-dangerous-from-afar Stefano Pirazzi. Fellow Pro Continental Italian outfit Neri Sottoli has Simone Ponzi, who excels in the hilly circuit races, and Mauro Finetto, a good sprinter who can handle a few bumps. FDJ’s Arthur Vichot will like this rolling profile. Belkin has a strong squad with Lars Petter Nordhaug, Barry Markus, and Lars Boom all making the start. Julien Simon of Cofidis specializes in profiles like this and could be an outsider in a reduced sprint. Wanty – Groupe Gobert has talented veteran Bjorn Leukemans and in-form Jean-Pierre Drucker as cards to play.
Winner: Simon Gerrans
Podium: Greg Van Avermaet, Alexander Kristoff
Other Top Contenders: Giacomo Nizzolo, Gianni Meersman, Ben Swift, Luka Mezgec, Sylvain Chavanel, Tim Wellens, Tony Gallopin
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary and analysis of the race.
-Dane Cash
Photo by Lomophoto56.
While some of the pro peloton is in Spain taking on the year’s final Grand Tour, a number of other riders will be in Hamburg to take on the Vattenfall Cyclassics. The first of several late summer circuit races on the WorldTour calendar, the event offers the sprinting heavyweights a rare opportunity to take a one-day victory at the highest level. It’s a lengthy race at 247.2 kilometers, and there are a few bumps along the way, but it almost invariably ends with a bunch gallop.
The race starts and finishes in Hamburg, with a route that will take the peloton in several loops through the city and its outskirts. The terrain is not particularly undulating throughout, but it does become a bit more challenging as the race wears on. After a long and mostly flat first half, the riders face four climbs of the Waseberg, the only real uphill test that must be overcome before the finish. It’s not even a full kilometer to the top, but after a long day, repeated trips up the steep climb will wear down some of the heavier riders. Generally, the Waseberg is the site of attacks, and though in recent editions they’ve all been closed down before the line (which comes roughly 15 km after the last ascent), the potential for a late game of cat and mouse does make for a hectic finale.
Weather has played a role in this race in the past, and it may again in the 2014 edition of the Vattenfall Cyclassics. There is a possibility of rain and a likelihood of high winds in the forecast, which could make this journey from start to finish a bit more stressful.
With a sprint as the most probable outcome, a fast finish will be the most important asset for anyone to be considered a main contender here. Endurance to survive a long day in the saddle and arrive at the finale fresh will help. The big-name sprinters, especially those who are comfortable sprinting after 240 kilometers, will be the top favorites. Last year’s winner John Degenkolb fit the bill perfectly, but he is in Spain for the Vuelta. However, there are plenty of other top quick men on this startlist (the field is probably even stronger than it was last year) to battle it out for the win.
Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff was 3rd in the 2013 edition of the race, and given his impeccable form right now, he will have an excellent opportunity to improve on that this year. The Milano-Sanremo winner is at his best after a lengthy race, he doesn’t mind a few bumps on the way to the line, and his top speed has reached new heights this season, making him among the most likely winners of the race. Bad weather will only increase his chances. The very quick Alexey Tsatevich makes for a powerful teammate.
Andre Greipel took 2nd place for the second consecutive time in 2013 and he’ll again be a strong contender in 2014. He is one of the fastest sprinters in the world, and he has made it through this parcours to the seemingly inevitable bunch finish in the past. However, he’s been a bit of a mystery over the past two months, at times showing off the blazing top speed for which he is well-known, and at other times widely missing the mark in races that seemed to suit him. He’ll need to put it all together to come away with the win here, and he hasn’t had a perfect run-up to race after withdrawing from the Eneco Tour due to illness. The possibility of rain won’t help either. Still, if he is feeling good and positions himself well, he’ll be hard to beat.
Marcel Kittel is the best pure sprinter on this startlist, with the Tour success to prove it. In a straight contest of speed, he is very rarely beaten, especially with the help of the Giant-Shimano leadout. However, as impressive as Kittel is as a sprinter, he doesn’t have the same versatility as teammate and 2013 winner John Degenkolb; he struggles with even minor challenges in a profile, and after 245 kilometers, he may be a different rider entirely from the speed machine that won the sprint down the Champs-Elysees. He’s certainly a contender, but he needs to prove that he can handle long days with a few bumps along the way before he is favored to win a race like this. The team may rely on Luka Mezgec as a capable alternative. Mezgec has taken his game to a new level in 2014, collecting win after win in the spring and showing good form lately in the Tour de Pologne and the Eneco Tour. He is a bit more capable than Kittel on the tougher parcours. Simon Geschke is another nice alternative; should this race be more selective than it usually is, he’s a dangerous rider in a reduced sprint.
OPQS brings a team loaded with firepower, with sprinting star Mark Cavendish leading the way. He’ll be eager to reassert himself in a bunch gallop after his early exit from the Tour de France, and he’s obviously among the very best sprinters here, with only Kittel and Greipel as potential rivals for pure speed. Still, while he’s a bit more likely to make it to the line than the aforementioned Kittel, there is a difference between surviving and arriving to the finale with fresh legs, as this year’s Milano-Sanremo (where several riders outmatched him even in a sprint) showed. Gianni Meersman is a terrific alternative if necessary, having shown brilliant form at the recent Tour de Wallonie, and Tour de l’Ain. The versatile Meersman should have no problem at all with the profile or the length of the race, and he may have more left in the tank than others by the end of the day. The same is true for Matteo Trentin, who will be yet another option for OPQS. Mark Renshaw, who showed in the Tour de France that he still has a lot of speed, deserves a mention too.
FDJ’s Arnaud Demare took the biggest win of his career here in 2012, and he has the skillset to fight for the overall victory again this year. Apart from a forgettable, illness-marred Tour de France campaign, he’s had a strong season so far, and he’ll be motivated to show that he’s back to his best in this race. 2nd in Gent-Wevelgmen in March, Demare is especially strong after a long day in the saddle, making him a top favorite for victory.
Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo was 3rd in the 2012 Vattenfall Cyclassics. He’s had an odd year, with quite a collection of nice sprinting performances but only two victories (in the Tour de San Luis and the recent Tour de Wallonie). Timing has been a bit of an issue on a number of occasions, and this race’s often chaotic finale won’t help with that, but the route and profile suit him perfectly, and Trek has a fast group of riders in attendance to strengthen his chances. Given the possibility that the likes of Kittel, Cavendish, and Greipel may not make it all the way to the line with the lead group, Nizzolo could contend for the win.
Lampre-Merida’s Sacha Modolo has shown flashes of brilliance in 2014, but he’s missed out on several races that looked to be good opportunities as well. Crashes haven’t helped. If he can hang on here, he’s extremely fast and should be in the mix for the victory. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard has won some smaller races this season and will hope to put his strong finish on display on a bigger stage in Hamburg. Sky’s Ben Swift would probably prefer a few more hills on the profile, but he’s a good sprinter in any scenario, and the length of the race alone could give him an advantage (like it did in Milano-Sanremo this year, where he was 3rd); much the same could be said for his teammate Edvald Boasson Hagen, who, though he has had a year to forget, did win this very race back in 2011. NetApp-Endura’s Sam Bennett is another very quick rider who becomes more dangerous when the route to the finish line has a few challenges along the way. Movistar’s JJ Lobato, BMC’s Thor Hushovd, Garmin-Sharp’s Tyler Farrar (winner of both the 2009 and 2010 edition), Orica-GreenEdge’s Matt Goss, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Matti Breschel, and AG2R’s Davide Appollonio are others who could contend in a sprint.
Despite a historical precedent of bunch finishes deciding this race, a few teams have brought some talented riders, several of them familiar classics specialists, who will try to make things interesting by applying pressure as the long day nears its finish. BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet, OGE’s Simon Gerrans, Michael Albasini, and Jens Keukeleire, Astana’s Enrico Gasparotto, and Belkin’s Sep Vanmarcke and Lars Boom look to be the likeliest protagonists for a late move or success in a sprint from a small group.
Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: Arnaud Demare, Giacomo Nizzolo
Other Top Contenders: Andre Greipel, Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, Gianni Meersman, Luka Mezgec, Sacha Modolo, Ben Swift
-Dane Cash
Photo by youkeys.