VeloHuman

Tag: Alexander Kristoff

  • Ronde van Vlaanderen 2014 Post-race Impressions: Cancellara in a Class of His Own

    Ronde van Vlaanderen 2014 Post-race Impressions: Cancellara in a Class of His Own

    Koppenberg

    Quickly Summing Up the Action at the 2014 Tour of Flanders

    Pais Vasco kicked off today in Ordizia (check out the VeloHuman preview!), which means that De Ronde 2014 is now history. Sunday’s battle on the cobbles of East Flanders made for an incredibly exciting contest, with action enough for several races throughout the long day on the road. At times, it looked like anyone’s game, with constant crashes and daring attacks providing plenty of uncertainty to keep things interesting. Riders were dropping like flies with each climb. As the front of the pack approached the last few hillingen with two-time winner Fabian Cancellara among them, an air of inevitability started to creep in. The other contenders sensed it and did what they could, with Greg Van Avermaet and Stijn Vandenbergh going off the nose a bit over 30 km out. When Spartacus jumped from the chasers on the brutal Oude Kwaremont on his way to track them down, only Sep Vanmarcke could follow up the bone-rattling cobbles; fellow pre-race favorites Peter Sagan and Tom Boonen were unable to hang on.

    From there, it was a matter of Cancellara and Vanmarcke catching the men in front, which they did, and the foursome hanging on ahead of the pack. Their bid was successful, leading to a four man sprint for the 94th Tour of Flanders. A game of cat and mouse ensued, with each rider jockeying for the best position and trying to plan the perfect time to turn on the ignition, but even with 3-to-1 odds, the Belgian trio could not match Cancellara in the final gallop. Spartacus delivered again Sunday to pick up his 3rd win in the Monument Classic, with Greg Van Avermaet 2nd and Sep Vanmarcke a disappointed 3rd.

    Lessons Learned Along the Road to Oudenaarde

    Fabian Cancellara‘s 3rd Ronde van Vlaanderen victory is his seventh Monument. That ties him with Tom Boonen, and it does not look like Spartacus is slowing yet. He has shined on the two biggest stages of the year, outclassing some of the best sprinters in the world on his way to a 2nd place in Milano-Sanremo and then using his sprint again even more effectively to take De Ronde. Though the Trek rider just turned 33 this March, both his finishing kick and his powerful engine seem to be as strong as ever. He has said that he may retire within the next few years, but given his current form, he’s likely to fill those years with more success, especially in the most beloved one-day races on the calendar, which also happen to be the most grueling—and therefore suit him perfectly. This Sunday’s Paris-Roubaix will be the perfect place for the strongest of strongmen to take yet another major victory. He enters as the big favorite after this dominant show.

    Perhaps the second biggest story of the Ronde van Vlaanderen was Peter Sagan‘s inability to match Cancellara on the Oude Kwaremont. Despite showing strong form in several big races so far this season, Sagan had no answer for Spartacus on the brutal final hillingen. It would be hard and probably incorrect to pinpoint any one reason why his ability to nab races like Gent-Wevelgem and E3 Harelbeke has not translated into a Monument yet. A few factors come to mind. First, he does seem sapped of power when the odometer gets over 240 kilometers, as it does in these races. His Milano-Sanremo 2014 sprint was far less impressive than it usually is, and his uphill burst seemed drastically reduced when Cancellara turned on the afterburners in this weekend’s Tour of Flanders. Sagan’s team support, or lack thereof, may be another major factor—Sagan does not have Cancellara’s ability to carry on over tens of kilometers alone, and while it can’t be said that Cannondale does not surround the young Slovakian with talent, he is too often left without assistance at key moments in a race. Whatever has held him back, I don’t think it necessarily counts him out for this Sunday’s Paris-Roubaix, even if it seems to suit him less than other races. The truth of the matter is that any rider can have an off-day when he least wants to, and it’s always possible that Sagan just hasn’t gotten his best days to line up with the biggest races yet.

    Sep Vanmarcke impressed me more than most other riders in the race with his ability to jump up the Oude Kwaremont behind Cancellara. It is a serious climb, meaning that even if he has yet to win a big race this season, Vanmarcke is on serious form. In my mind, Vanmarcke is right with four-time winner Tom Boonen as top challengers to Cancellara in Paris-Roubaix. Without the uphill mileage of the Ronde, the Hell of the North may be a better shot for Vanmarcke. He’s perfected the art of holding Cancellara’s wheel, and, learning from the best, one day soon he might just time his own attack perfectly.

    What more can I say about Greg Van Avermaet that hasn’t already been said? It’s hard not to root for the 28-year old, a constant fixture in the spring classics. The BMC rider has shown in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and on Sunday in Flanders that he is in great shape in 2014, and with such a high probability of a good placing in almost every race he takes on, it seems likely that one of these days, he might win the final sprint to the line or solo away and stay out until the finish line. Better tactics (not wasting energy trying to drop Stijn Vandenbergh) will help as well.

    Tom Boonen was unable to hang with the lead group on Sunday, but he did manage to end up a respectable 7th. His thumb seems to still be affecting him; I’d say he ran a decent race given his injury, and hopefully, he will continue to heal and challenge for Paris-Roubaix. OPQS as a whole will (and should) be very disappointed with the way things turned out. Their best placed rider Stijn Vandenbergh did not come close in the sprint. Niki Terpstra tried to pick up Boonen’s slack with an attempt to bridge to the final foursome, but was unsuccessful. Zdenek Stybar was among the big group of chasers but did not manage to make waves. They will look to bounce back in Paris-Roubaix. With last year’s 3rd place finisher (Terpstra) and 6th place finisher (Stybar, who might have been on the podium himself if not for a spectator crash) lining up alongside Tom Boonen (another week removed from his thumb injury) in a race he has dominated, they are set up nicely.

    Milano-Sanremo winner Alexander Kristoff forced himself further into the Paris-Roubaix conversation with a 5th place in the Ronde van Vlaanderen. It would have been something if the Katusha hardman had won the bunch sprint behind the leading group as he did last year, but his 2014 performance, while landing him a 5th instead of 4th, was arguably more impressive, as it involved him jumping into an attempt to bridge with only one other rider (Niki Terpstra) and then going it alone for the closing minutes of the race. The fact that he was able to be up there when Sagan and John Degenkolb had fallen away speaks volumes about Kristoff’s talent. His abilities shine brightest on the toughest days. Paris-Roubaix is one such day, and Kristoff will look to improve on his 2013 result, 9th place, in this edition. Without climbs but with all the brutality of a cobbled Monument Classics, P-R could be a great stage for Kristoff.

    Cancellara’s dominance, the rise of Kristoff and Vanmarcke, and the continued disappointment for Sagan may be the biggest takeaways from the 2014 Ronde, but in my mind they come with a major caveat. On the harsh cobbles of the spring classics, races can change in an instant (Cancellara knows this better than anyone thanks to his 2012 crash). Any rider can have a great day or a terrible day, and the conditions of the Monuments tend to push this fact to its extremes. In short, Fabian Cancellara was the most dominant rider on Sunday and he’ll enter Paris-Roubaix the favorite, but when the gears start turning and the adrenaline gets pumping, it only takes one perfectly-timed move by one in-form challenger to shake things up. As usual, VeloHuman will be previewing the excitement to come, and tweeting more thoughts @VeloHuman on Twitter (be sure to follow!).

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by Mark Blacknell. Video courtesy of CyclingHub.

  • E3 Harelbeke, Gent-Wevelgem, and Volta a Catalunya Post-race Impressions: Wrapping up the Weekend

    E3 Harelbeke, Gent-Wevelgem, and Volta a Catalunya Post-race Impressions: Wrapping up the Weekend

    VoltaMotocrop

    Tuning Up at the Highest Level

    The last week of March was positively full of WorldTour racing, and each day offered insights into who is on form and who is not in early 2014. Because of the major implications of the one-day races for the upcoming Monuments, and the golden opportunity to view the form of the top GC riders on the planet during their heavyweight bout in the mountains of Catalunya, I decided the races were worth a few minutes spent cataloging some post-race impressions.

    Takeaways from E3 Harelbeke and Gent-Wevelgem

    Peter Sagan picked up the second major spring classic victory of his career last Friday at E3 Harelbeke, sticking a late attack with Geraint Thomas, Niki Terpstra, and Stijn Vandenbergh and rather easily outsprinting the rest of the escapees to the line. Sep Vanmarcke and Tony Gallopin jumped from the chasing pack for the next placings and then Borut Bozic led the bunch over the line, with Tyler Farrar, Fabian Cancellara (who put in a valiant effort trying to track down the escapees despite being delayed by a crash), Greg van Avermaet and a banged up Tom Boonen following, among others. Two days later in Gent-Wevelgem, the peloton ate up attacks one by one to force a bunch sprint, but not without danger along the way. Crashes wreaked havoc on the peloton all day, downing the likes of Ian Stannard (who fractured a vertebra), Andre Greipel (who broke a collarbone), and Tyler Farrar and slowing Cancellara. Enough stayed upright for a bunch finish. MSR winner Alexander Kristoff jumped first, but Sagan, John Degenkolb, and Arnaud Demare charged past as he faded. Degenkolb took the win with Demare 2nd and Sagan 3rd. Sep Vanmarcke was an impressive 4th. Boonen (despite an injured thumb) pulled in 5th.

    Sagan’s strength in the successful E3 move shows that he’s on a very high level in the area of his game he’ll need most in the upcoming Tour of Flanders. Meanwhile, he couldn’t match high octane Degenkolb and Demare in the sprint. I’m beginning to think he has made a conscious decision to angle towards improving his climbing and endurance possibly at the expense of pure sprinting this year; Flanders will be a good indicator of things.

    Fellow E3 top finisher Geraint Thomas looked very sharp, certainly back on the level after a messy crash in Paris-Nice. With Stannard out for the foreseeable future, Thomas’s showing is important for Sky’s classics campaign. The climbs and distance of Flanders will be a good opportunity for him to show off his skillset.

    Gent-Wevelgem brought John Degenkolb the spring classic he’d been seeking. He burst onto the scene with a dominating Vuelta performance in 2012 and has built on that promise. I look forward to the next stage race that he and Sagan attend together. Arnaud Demare was very close behind him at the line. He will be disappointed at coming so close, but it was a good showing that bodes well for the future.

    Despite a lack of success during the weekend, Cancellara showed continued power in his efforts at the front of the peloton in both races. E3 and Gent-Wevelgem are big events but Cancellara has his eyes on the Monumental prizes, and he looks sharp. Rival Tom Boonen took a backseat to Niki Terpstra in Harelbeke but he was quite quick in the Gent-Wevelgem finish. Like Cancellara, he looks ready for Flanders and Paris. Terpstra was doomed to 2nd when the E3 break was unable to drop Sagan, but he did look quite strong. Zdenek Stybar was active during the weekend and will relish the more difficult contests to come.

    Sep Vanmarcke was one of the strongest riders in both races. He managed a 5th place in E3 despite running into mechanical issues on the day, and surprised many (including me) with his sprint to 4th on Sunday. It was nice to see him giving the races his all even when victory seemed out of the picture. He has been everywhere in the early season classics, and I think he’s likely to mix it up with Cancellara, Boonen, and Sagan in the next two weeks.

    Andre Greipel missed out on a golden opportunity to pick up a big classics victory, and now he’ll miss time for injury to boot. It’s a shame for the German sprinter, who is a true gentleman of the sport, and who obviously has the talent to succeed in one-day races as well as in the Grand Tour sprints he’s known for.

    Other takeaways from the E3 Harelbeke/Gent-Wevelgem weekend: Topsport Vlaanderen’s Tom Van Asbroeck looks primed for a bright future, getting into the Top 10 mix in G-W after already notching some semi-classic success in 2014. Jurgen Roelandts sniped the final Top 10 spot in G-W despite a last minute designation as team leader after Greipel went down. He has looked very strong across the first few weeks of classics season, and now that he won’t be on teammate duty, he could pose a threat in the race he took 3rd in last year, Flanders. Alternativley, Lotto could look to success from Tony Gallopin, who looked sharp on the climbs in Paris-Nice and who was strong at the E3 finish.

    Takeaways from the Volta a Catalunya

    The heavyweight GC competition may have been the big story in Spain, but first, a quick word on the stagehunters. While John Degenkolb was prepping for his days on the cobbles, teammate Luka Mezgec was absolutely cleaning up the sprints in Catalunya, earning a hat trick of victories against the likes of Leigh Howard and Roberto Ferrari. He’s a versatile rider who can hang on over the climbs (kind of like Degenkolb) and he packs a heck of a punch… He also shares youth with Giant’s other star sprinters: Mezgec, like Degenkolb and Marcel Kittel, is only 25! OPQS youth Julian Alaphillipe (just 21!), a cyclocross transfer, looked strong as well in Catalunya with three top 5 stage finishes.

    Now to the GC contenders. Joaquim Rodriguez won the mountainous 3rdstage, taking the race lead, which he successfully defended through to the final podium. Alberto Contador was 2nd on the day, and he defended that position through to the final podium as well. Tejay van Garderen, 4th on stage 3, improved his position by winning a cold, dreary, foggy stage 4, and he hold on for 3rdoverall. Romain Bardet was just behind, both on the stage and in the GC. Nairo Quintana and Chris Froome were strong throughout the race, but could not match their rivals at the top, settling for 5th and 6th, respectively.

    There was plenty of insight to be gleaned from the climbers’ battle, but there are also some caveats. Starting with the insight: Purito quickly proved that his time away from racing was not spent on the couch. He was simply too strong on his way up La Molina, and if there were any concerns about his 2014 form heading into the month of the Ardennes classics, I’d say he dispelled them. Contador was among the top climbers on both decisive stages, and active on other days as well. Having just put in a Herculean effort in Tirreno-Adriatico, he still managed to challenge for the overall victory here, and if his performance in Italy did not say it emphatically enough, he is most definitely back. Meanwhile, Froome and Quintana, while among the best riders in the race, were not on the level of Purito and Contador. However, I think it is dangerous to draw too many conclusions from their performances. As was noted in the original preview, Quintana was still taking anti-biotics to stave of illness at the start of the race, and Froome was coming off of back pain that sidelined him for Tirreno-Adriatico and subsequent training. Given the circumstances, Quintana and Froome looked fine in Catalunya and I don’t think either is concerned.

    To my mind, Tejay van Garderen made the biggest statement of the race. Despite lurking at the top levels of the sport in the past two years, Tejay had yet to take a WorldTour victory before last week. He remedied that with a beautiful uphill charge through the mist on a stage 4 whose conditions were so bad that the only TV coverage came in the final ten minutes of the race. After last year’s disappointing Tour de France, Tejay looks to be better than ever, and winning a stage with a quick upward burst is even more impressive, as van Garderen is not really known for explosiveness. To stand on the podium in a race without a time trial against such high level competition bodes extremely well for van Garderen. AG2R’s Romain Bardet, who narrowly missed the stage 4 victory behind van Garderen, was vindicated after a series of misfortunes kept him from contending in Paris-Nice with his 4th overall here, on the same time as Nairo Quintana.

    Garmin will be pleased with Andrew Talansky’s 7th place, just behind Froome himself. The American was still rounding into form at Tirreno-Adriatico, and it looks like he is progressing nicely ahead of his first big target of the season, the Tour de Romandie. Meanwhile, teammates Dan Martin and Ryder Hesjedal both look to coming along as well (Martin is targeting the Ardennes and the Giro), from the same position of uncertainty.

    Warren Barguil was another statement-maker. Two Vuelta wins last year put the young French Giant-Shimano rider on the map, but as both came in breakaways, he had yet to mix it up with the big GC riders. Barguil crossed the line in the stage 4 finish behind Chris Froome, and ended the race 9th overall. According to ProCyclingStats, he’s set to start the Ardennes classics for GSH, and with Tom Dumoulin (winner of the Criterium International ITT) he makes a dangerous duo with the potential for serious long range strikes.

    The stars of E3 and Gent-Wevelgem take on the biggest prizes of the classics season in the next two weeks, starting in Flanders on Sunday. Meanwhile, many of the top names from Catalunya will head across Spain to start in the Tour of the Basque country, with Amstel, La Fleche Wallonne, and Liege to follow.

    The Tour of Flanders and Tour of the Basque country are the next previews on the docket. As usual, I’ll also be tweeting plenty of analysis of the action; be sure to follow the new @VeloHuman on Twitter!

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by Mossos.

  • Gent-Wevelgem 2014 Preview

    Gent-Wevelgem 2014 Preview

    GWBreschelCrop

    A Cobbled Classic for the Fastest Riders in the Pack

    E3 Harelbeke is in the books! Cannondale’s Peter Sagan, facing questions of his form after a disappointing Milano-Sanremo, won a commanding victory over Niki Terpstra and Geraint Thomas, surviving attempts from the peloton to reel in their late attack. Now, it’s on to Gent-Wevelgem, Sunday’s roughly 230 kilometer journey from Deinze to Wevelgem near the Flemish coast. Its trademark Kemmelberg is a steep, challenging obstacle on the way to the finish, but Gent-Wevelgem has been one for the sprinters in recent years (though Peter Sagan used a late attack, and not his elite sprint, to win last year’s edition). As such, the field is full of fast men. Most of the top names are here, and their teams will be focused on bringing them to the line safely.

    Peter Sagan, winner here last year, has the climbing legs to make it over the bumps along the way and the kick to outsprint most of the starters to the line. VeloHuman wasn’t really concerned about his form after Milano-Sanremo, but some observers were; he put those concerns to bed with a masterful performance at E3 Harelbeke. It’s hard to see a select group making the final kilometers without Sagan in it, and he has one of the fastest finishes in the race, fast enough to contend with anyone here. If he feels threatened by some of the bigger sprinters, he also has the ability to power away on his own, as he did in 2013.

    Omega Pharma might have had a strong bid to challenge Sagan here, but health issues are putting their chances in doubt. Tom Boonen has won this race three times. Like Sagan, he can make it over bumps and can get into late moves, or initiate them himself, but he also has the kick to be in the mix in a bunch finish. However, he injured his thumb in E3 Harelbeke, and that injury could keep him from making an impact at Gent-Wevelgem; keep an eye here or at the new VH Twitter account, @VeloHuman, for updates. He’ll be in my Top 10 for now. Zdenek Stybar is another option, but G-W might not be difficult enough for him to be a true contender. Stijn Vandenbergh looked great in E3, but his finishing kick could leave him lacking here. Pure sprinter Mark Cavendish could have been the guy for OPQS (his 5th place in Sanremo shows he’s capable in 2014 of making it to the line in a tough one day race, and with the elite Belgian squad to deliver him, Gent-Wevelgem could have been within his reach), but a fever will sideline him Sunday. Perhaps they will turn to Nikolas Maes in his stead?

    Mark Cavendish’s ever-present sprinting rival Andre Greipel will make the start. The Lotto-Belisol rider mentioned both cramps and a gearing issue as problematic for him in MSR, but whatever the reason, he did not make an impression there. Still, with a strong team to help him overcome the Belgian landscape, he’s a great bet in a sprint finish. Lotto looked very good at E3 Harelbeke, and Gent-Wevelgem could suit their star fast man.

    Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff was not in the least bit troubled by the rigors of Milano-Sanremo, and he showed an impressive kick after a hard-fought day in that race, taking a commanding victory ahead of some top talent. Clearly at the top level right now, Kristoff will look to deliver again in Gent-Wevelgem. He has a knack for winning bunch sprints in the cobbled classics, even if those sprints are contesting 4th place behind the day’s last surviving attackers. This race offers a great opportunity for sprinters like Kristoff to actually contest the victory. Luca Paolini is a fine second. Another rider who has made a career out of a impressive kicks following long days is Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb, who was robbed of his chance at Milano-Sanremo glory by an untimely puncture in the closing kilometers. He will take on Gent-Wevelgem looking for some shred of vindication. He managed to make it into the Top 10 of last year’s Tour of Flanders and the 2012 edition of E3, so he has shown at least some ability on cobbled Belgian roads. On the fine form he’s showing this year, with the added fuel of a chip on the shoulder, Degenkolb should challenge for victory here.

    FDJ’s Arnaud Demare was unable to hang on in Milano-Sanremo but this race should be more manageable, and he looks good this year. Lampre’s Sacha Modolo was a well-placed finisher in MSR and might be an even better bet here, with Filippo Pozzato (who has notched a few top 10s here) another strong option for the team, especially if some of the top sprinters are weeded out. Orica-Greenedge sends Matt Goss, desperate to show he still has what it takes. Garmin-Sharp’s Tyler Farrar looked great in Dwars door Vlaanderen and E3 Harelbeke, and he has a very strong supporting cast to deliver him here. Belkin’s Moreno Hofland has looked great in several races this year, and he, too, has a very strong supporting cast. Other contenders looking for a sprint finish, reduced or otherwise, include Astana’s Borut Bozic and Francesco Gavazzi, MTN’s Gerald Ciolek, Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, Tinkoff-Saxo’s triple option of Matti Breschel, Daniele Bennati, and Michael Morkov, Movistar’s JJ Lobato, IAM’s Matteo Pelucchi and Heinrich Haussler, Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen (winner in 2009) and Bernie Eisel (winner in 2010), NetApp’s Sam Bennett, WGG’s Jean-Pierre Drucker, AG2R’s Davide Appolonio, and BMC’s Thor Hushovd.

    Trek’s Fabian Cancellara could try to animate the race with a solo move. A crash with around 40 km to go in E3 made it all the more difficult for Cancellara to get to the front of affairs, but his 8th place there showed good cobbled form. Unfortunately for Cancellara, the G-W parcours favors him less. Still, he’s shown a good finishing kick so far in 2014 should he need to use it. Belkin’s Sep Vanmarcke, also on blazing form this spring (hampered in that race by a number of mechanical issues, he still nabbed 5th at E3 Harelbeke), will look for getaway opportunities as well. Teammate Lars Boom is sure to do the same; watch out for fireworks from Belkin. The parcours will make victory from a late attack difficult, but Sky’s Ian Stannard and Geraint Thomas (looking great right now), Garmin’s Sebastian Langeveld, BMC’s Greg van Avermaet and Taylor Phinney, Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Roelandts and Tony Gallopin, IAM’s Sylvain Chavanel, Omega Pharma’s Zdenek Stybar, OGE’s Jens Keukeleire, and WGG’s Bjorn Leukemans are other candidates to go for a long one.

    VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

    Winner: Peter Sagan
    Podium: Alexander Kristoff, Andre Greipel
    Other Top Contenders: John Degenkolb, Arnaud Demare, Borut Bozic, Sacha Modolo, Fabian Cancellara, Tom Boonen, Tyler Farrar

    VeloHuman has just joined the Twitterverse! Follow @VeloHuman for more news and views on the pro peloton.

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by Vlaam.

  • Milano-Sanremo 2014 Post-race Impressions: Kristoff Delivers

    KristoffKBKTakeaways from La Classicissima di Primavera 2014

    Milano-Sanremo 2014 is in the books! The VeloHuman race preview noted that whoever won this race would truly have to earn his glory, and after 300 rain-soaked kilometers, I’d say he did. The biggest takeaway from this race is obviously that Alexander Kristoff is capable of pulling off the big win. If you’ve watched many bike races in the last year, you probably already knew that the Katusha sprinter is the real deal. If you read this particular site, you’re definitely aware: in the end-of-2013 thoughts published in November, VH said, “Speaking of quick hardmen, Alexander Kristoff gets a paragraph of his own: he built on a strong 2012 (in which he took an Olympic Bronze Medal) with top 10s in three Monument Classics and his first WorldTour level win in the Tour de Suisse (besting Peter Sagan on a tough day that ended in a sprint). He has established himself as a serious contender for hardman sprinter’s races going forward.” I’d say he’s made good on that promise. The number of major news outlets calling him a total surprise was a bit shocking to me. He was among the top 15 or so with the bookmakers, he was one of my Top 10 for this race, and every other preview site I read named his name, so he didn’t exactly come from nowhere. Still, that big win was something that seemed to constantly elude him. His Tour de Suisse stage win last year was his very first WorldTour win. With Sunday’s performance, we can be a bit more confident that Kristoff really does have that killer instinct required to pull of the victory (it wasn’t close at the line). He’s got to be viewed as a favorite in sprint finishes over the next few weeks of classics-riding. Luca Paolini also deserves some serious praise for the job he did keeping the pace high and guiding Kristoff over the obstacles on the way to the finish in Sanremo. Katusha, known for their climbers, has done a commendable job prepping for the spring classics, and I think we can look forward to more from them in the near future.

    The other big takeaway, or at least, the second biggest news item, is that Peter Sagan didn’t win. Not only did he not win, he wasn’t even in the top 5, rolling in 10th. Granted, he sort of gave up at the very end of the sprint after it was clear that he was a bit too far behind and boxed in as well, but no matter how you slice it, he didn’t look like he had it in him to make the podium. It’s a disappointment for him, but I am not going to read too much into it just yet. While Sagan was the favorite for the race, he was by no means a lock. The removal of the big climbs at the end put a dent in his chances at dropping other sprinters, and the length of the race was a bit longer than the sorts of contests Sagan has proven he can win. His form may also be a tad below what it was in last year’s race. All this to say: while I think it will be a blow to morale for Sagan to come away from the race without a win or even a podium spot, I will still have him among the favorites at E3, Gent-Wevelgem, and the Tour of Flanders (which may be his true goal this season), races that may provide more launching pads for victory, and fewer miles to wear him down.

    Speaking of all those races that Fabian Cancellara will be another favorite in: Spartacus nabbed a surprising second place at MSR by being the second best sprinter after 300 kilometers. Despite the presence of riders who tend to be faster to the line, Cancellara’s otherworldly endurance left him enough in the tank to land himself in the runner-up position. He seemed pretty frustrated after the race, but I’m not really sure there could have been a better outcome. I was quite impressed that he even managed a 2nd place: with no Pompeiana climb, it was always going to be very hard for Cancellara to get away. I’d say his outlook is pretty good for the next few weeks.

    Ben Swift was something of a revelation in this race, nabbing 3rd. He’s had some high-level road wins in his young career, but injury has gotten in the way of his pursuit of victory in the past. In a race that one might have expected Team Sky to be riding for Edvald Boasson Hagen, Swift shone as the best rider in black and blue on the day, and he delivered for Sky with a podium-level sprint at the end of a very long day at the office. At the moment he seems scheduled to ride Pais Vasco, which may offer a few opportunities for him to put his versatile skillset on display. Boasson Hagen, meanwhile, seems to struggle in this race, so I am not sure what to make of his fading on Sunday in terms of judging his form leading into the cobbled classics.

    John Degenkolb will be left wondering what might have been, after a late puncture ruined his shot at glory. Fortunately, we will get to see him again soon on the cobbles. Mark Cavendish will be disappointed that he didn’t get the win despite being involved in the bunch sprint at the end, but as Kristoff pointed out after the race, a sprint after 300 km is quite different from one after 200. Andre Greipel stated he had both cramps and mechanical troubles at the end of the race. Gerald Ciolek got the rain and the bunch sprint he probably wanted, but couldn’t manage more than 9th (though, I’d rate that as a moderate success, as I didn’t even expect that). Juan Jose Lobato took up JJ Rojas’s mantle, nabbing 4th for Movistar. It’s a good result for him, and he’s off to a pretty good year with some strong finishes so far. Sacha Modolo was another of the VeloHuman Top 10, and he finished right around where I expected. Like anyone who came to that finish line after Kristoff, he’ll probably be disappointed, but a top 10 in MSR is a pretty good sign of ability going forward. Zdenek Stybar pulled a fine 7th place while also working for Cav, as he continues to make his case for inclusion among the favorites in the spring races for serious hardmen. With more climbing and more cobbles to come, he’s going to be mentioned up there with the Cancellaras, Sagans, and Boonens as a contender when the peloton takes on the big classics in Northern Europe.

    Lastly, a chapeau to Vincenzo Nibali. I don’t think there was any way he could win this race, given the lack of significant inclines, but he tried and made the race exciting with a solo attack and divebomb descent. Hopefully, next year’s route will be known further in advance, giving the top riders time to decide on whether to attend based on what the road will actually look like, and whether it will really suit their strengths.

    If you haven’t already, be sure to check out the VeloHuman Volta a Catalunya 2014 preview! The race got underway this morning, with Luka Mezgec winning a sprint to the line, and the next few stages look like they’ll be pretty action-packed. I will be live-tweeting analysis on Twitter @VeloHuman. And of course, VeloHuman’s E3 Harelbeke preview is coming soon, so be sure to check back in a few days for more!

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by brassynn.

  • Post-year Impressions: Charting the Arrivals and Step-ups of 2013

    HesjedalCostaBetancur

    2013 is in the books! Beñat Intxausti won the GC of the final WT race of the year, the Tour of Beijing, by taking a victory on the decisive fourth stage. Joaquim Rodriguez finishes the year as repeat WorldTour champion on the back of his GrandTour successes, a Monument victory, and a truckload of high placings in other big races.

    As this site is in the business of prospective analysis, my look back at 2013 will mostly be a look forward. I hope to shed some light on what we learned about the top riders in the sport this year, and which riders to watch in the future. If you’re reading VeloHuman, you don’t need me to tell you that Chris Froome is a rider to keep an eye on next year, or that Vincenzo Nibali is shaping up to be his main rival, or that Fabian Cancellara is still a talented racer. Instead, it’d be more productive for me to focus on the riders who made vast improvements in 2013, who we might say “arrived” this year, and who have set themselves up to do big things next year, so I’ll do just that, and name some names that I think made big strides this season and look to continue to do soon in the near future.

    A rather obvious duo headlines my list of the most emphatic arrivals this year. While everyone was busy wondering which Spaniard would present the best case against Chris Froome in the Tour de France, a 23-year old Colombian leg-muscled his way onto the scene, building off of early season success in the Tour of the Basque Country with a fierce display of climbing prowess on some of the Tour’s most difficult stages: Ventoux, Alpe d’Huez, Mont Semnoz. Though the early lead Froome had built up was insurmountable, Quintana’s later stage performances, matching the Sky captain’s every move uphill on his way to 2nd overall, a stage win, the polka-dot KoM jersey and the young rider’s white, he saved Movistar’s Tour after their team leader Alejandro Valverde hit some raw luck with a mechanical that dropped him out of contention. No one will overlook him next year, especially with such a climbing-oriented 2014 edition of the Tour de France on the docket. Alternatively, he could set his sights on the Giro. Quintana’s time trialing might need a bit of work, but he showed this year that he can outclimb most of the sport’s biggest names, and you have to think he can only get better, still a few years shy of his prime.

    Countryman Carlos Betancur blazed onto the scene with similar brightness. Top 10s at La Fleche Wallonne, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and the Tour of the Basque Country were followed by a highly successful Giro d’Italia, in which the young Colombian took 5th overall and the young rider classification. Like Quintana, he is sorely lacking in the time trialing department—his remarkable Giro was made all the more remarkable by his appearance in the top 10 after losing almost five minutes to the eventual winner of the race in the first ITT. Like Quintana, he’ll gun for future Grand Tour success in chrono-light parcours while he improves in that discipline, and while he may be a shade shy of Quintana’s level on the longer Tour style climbs, he’s more explosive than the Movistar wunderkind, and will surely be a fixture in the climber’s classics to come.

    Zdenek Stybar is my other most emphatic arrival of the year. His situation is unique, in that cycling fans have heard Stybar’s name for years, but in a different discipline. Making the switch from cyclocross appears to have worked out for the Czech rider: even after a collision with a fan robbed him of a potential podium position in Paris-Roubaix, he still finished 6th in that race, and followed it up with a dominant Eneco Tour and a beautiful stage win in the Vuelta where he outsprinted none other than former World Champ Philippe Gilbert. His versatility was dazzling, and he will go into the 2014 classics season as a hot favorite across all kinds of terrain—and isn’t that the perfect expectation for a former cyclocross world champion?

    Many other riders who were already well within the sights of cycling fans took leaps onto the highest level. Outside of Quintana, the most emphatic arrivals among riders who finished the year in the WorldTour top 10 were made by Dan Martin and Rui Costa. Dan Martin was already a name on the minds of observers at the start of the season, with a Grand Tour stage win in 2011 and the overall victory at the Tour de Pologne in 2010, but he took a Monument Classic, a Tour de France stage win, and the overall at the Volta a Catalunya this year, successes that vaulted him to 6th place in the final WorldTour rankings of 2013 (putting him ahead of Spartacus himself). And Rui Costa came into the year as a well-known talent as a winner of a Canadian GP, the Tour de Suisse, and a stage in the Tour de France, but his two Tour de France wins and World Championship (to go with another dominant Tour de Suisse) put him at cycling’s center stage. He goes to Lampre in 2014 as the team leader, a Tour de France GC hopeful. Another star of the Tour, Bauke Mollema was already a well-known name for many fans of the sport, having finished 4th overall and 1st in the points classification in the 2011 Vuelta, but he came into his own this year with strong performances all over the calendar, in the Ardennes Classics, the Tour de Suisse, Tour de France, Vuelta (where he won a stage to redeem a disappointing GC effort), and Clasica de San Sebastian. His emergence comes at just the right time, with teammate Robert Gesink having another disappointing year in terms of Grand Tour GC contention; however, Gesink showed strong late season form in shorter races, winning the Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec and placing highly in other events, suggesting a possible change of focus to shorter races going forward. And the timing was ripe for Marcel Kittel to make an explosive entrance: after injury in 2012 robbed him of an opportunity to make his mark on that year’s tour, his 2013 outing, which earned him a quartet of stage wins, suddenly sees him in the best-of-the-best conversation with Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel.

    In case you missed it, his teammate Luka Mezgec was one of a number of young up-and-coming sprinters who showed promise this year. Mezgec spent the whole year nipping at the heels of other sprinters, racking up countless top 5s without a win until he finally picked up his first of the year and his first WT level win ever on the very last day of the WorldTour calendar in Beijing. Nacer Bouhanni took a pair of wins in that race to go with the points jersey, as well as a number of other wins this year, a boon for FDJ. His squadmate Arnaud Demare took stages in the Eneco Tour and the Tour de Suisse, an armful of honors in the Four Days of Dunkirk he won, and high placings in a number of one-day races. Yet another French, Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, a former track cycling star, transitioned quite nicely onto the road, collecting honors left and right on the Continental circuit. The 21 year old will be a major force on the fast finishes in 2014 now that Europcar looks to be joining the top division of teams. Michael Matthews came into the Vuelta flying high after Continental Tour success and proceeded to establish himself as the best sprinter in that race, with a special talent for nabbing victories after tough days in the saddle. His skills nabbed him a pair of stage wins, including the victory on the final day’s sprinter battle royale.

    Speaking of quick hardmen, Alexander Kristoff gets a paragraph of his own: he built on a strong 2012 (in which he took an Olympic Bronze Medal) with top 10s in three Monument Classics and his first WorldTour level win in the Tour de Suisse (besting Peter Sagan on a tough day that ended in a sprint). He has established himself as a serious contender for hardman sprinter’s races going forward.

    The Vuelta gave us an opportunity to see a number of coming out parties for GC contenders. Leopold Konig landed in the top 10 and picked up a stage win at the head of a Pro Continental team, quite a feat for the 25 year old. He’ll stay with NetApp for another year and will hope his performance garners further invitations to big events, where he’s sure to continue his success. Meanwhile, Saxo-Tinkoff’s Nicolas Roche achieved some long awaited success with a top 5 finish and a stage win. His constant presence at the front of the pack on mountaintop finishes in Spain suggests that he may finally have taken the step up to the next level, a good sign for 2014.

    Ulissi

    Poland showed off a pair of riders with top level ability this year. Nico Roche’s teammate Rafal Majka didn’t win any races, but he was 7th overall in the Giro d’Italia and 2nd to Betancur for the young rider classification in that race, and he followed up with a 4th overall in his home tour to go along with his 1st place in the points classification of that race. The honors kept piling up as the year went on, when he narrowly missed out on a victory in Milano-Torino against another rising star (pictured above) and then stood on the podium in the final Monument of the year in Lombardy. By the same token (eerily), Michal Kwiatkowski may still have yet to win a pro race, but he burst onto the scene this year with a boatload of strong performances. 4th in both Tirreno-Adriatico and Amstel Gold, 5th in La Fleche Wallonne, and a heartbreaking 11th in the Tour de France after fellow up-and-comer Andrew Talansky grabbed the final top 10 spot on the last day of climbing, Majka looks to be a likely candidate for continued climbing success, and Kwiatkowski showed an incredible array of skills and looks poised to stake a claim to best all-rounder in the very near future.

    A significant number of teams saw young climbing talents rising up the ladder this year. Many are Italian. 2011 Giro stage winner Diego Ulissi took a big step forward with successes on both ends of the season, nabbing a top 10 at Paris-Nice early and then a stage win in the Tour de Pologne and a string of semi-classic victories in Italy. So far, most of his quantifiable successes have been on smaller stages, but he performed at a high level in some big races this year (he was lurking in a number of stages in the Vuelta even if he didn’t come away with a win), inspiring a lot of confidence going forward. He’ll be part of an explosive one-two combination with Rui Costa at Lampre in 2014. Astana teammates Fabio Aru and Simone Ponzi look like prime candidates for success next year. Another Italian, Moreno Moser, had several standout performances this year for Cannondale; he disappeared at times when he was expected to bring his success to a bigger stage, but he showed in Strade Bianche and other races in 2013 that he certainly has the ability to turn promise into achievement in 2014.

    Spaniard Jon Izagirre won’t be sweating the dissolution of his former team Euskaltel too much now that he has a new squad in Movistar, and it’s easy to see why they signed him. He nabbed the runner-up honors in the Tour de Pologne with a surprising time trial performance on the last day, and notched top 10s in the Tour Down Under and the one day Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal as well.

    Vichot

    24 year old Arthur Vichot looks to be one of yet another up-and-comer for FDJ with strong climbing legs and a fast finish, abilities that netted him the French national championship, the runner-up honors in Quebec, and the victory in the Tour du Haut Var-matin. AG2R’s Romain Bardet, winner of the Tour de l’Ain and a high finisher in the Tour of Beijing, appears to have a bright future, and he joins teammate Carlos Betancur as part of a crop of young uphill chargers on that team.

    Wilco Kelderman, a natural time trial talent, came into his own as a climber with a number of high-level successes in 2013. He picked up top 10s in Romandie, the Eneco Tour, and the Tour Down Under, and dominated the Tour of Denmark, where he won a stage, the points classification, and the overall. He’s another exciting up-and-comer for Belkin.

    Argos-Shimano teammates Warren Barguil and Tom Dumoulin got themselves onto the map this year, the former nabbing a pair of breakaway victories in the Vuelta, and the latter claiming runner up honors with an impressive Eneco Tour performance. Alongside Marcel Kittel, Luka Mezgec, and John Degenkolb, the duo makes a potent quartet of Argos riders 25 and under.

    Riccardo Zoidl nabbed the GC win at the Tour of Austria, and climbed at a high level in a number of other events. Darwin Atapuma moves up from Team Colombia to BMC after nabbing his first WorldTour win this year in Poland—that team desperately needs new blood, and Atapuma will be happy to oblige.

    To match all these young climbers coming into their own, a few time trialists are on the rise: Adriano Malori looks to be a threat in that department, putting in a top 10 at the World Championship ITT and taking second place behind Tony Martin on a few time trial stages in WorldTour races to go along with his ITT victory and the overall in Bayern-Rundfahrt. Rohan Dennis out-time-trialed Chris Froome in the Criterium du Dauphine on his way to a top 10 there and then showed his versatility when he won a stage and the overall in the Tour of Alberta. The 23 year old has established himself as a promising member of Garmin’s youth movement.

    This list is by no means exhaustive, and obviously much depends on how you define breakout success, but hopefully I’ve rattled off the names of many of tomorrow’s biggest names. And thanks to the Tour Down Under and its January start date, we won’t have too long to wait for the opening of the 2014 calendar–in just 11 weeks, the pro peloton heads to Nuriootpa, Australia to kick off the new season!

    -Dane Cash

    Photos by Flowizm, brassynn, and Georges Ménager.

  • GP Ouest France 2013 Preview

    BMC

    An Open Field

    A circuit race comprising nine laps around a 27km loop, GP Ouest France provides just enough tough climbs to keep you guessing until the very end: recent races have come down to late attacks battling a hard-charging peloton full of sprinters to the line. The 2013 startlist reflects this trend, with a number of powerful sprinters and aggressive attackers making the trip to Brittany. Last year saw Edvald Boasson Hagen launch a last minute assault over the final climb of Ty Marrec to catch and pass soloist Rui Costa, while the bunch finished just behind them. 2011 offered a similar result, with Grega Bole striking out with 2 kilometers remaining and just managing to beat a Simon Gerrans-led pack to the finish. With the same route as the 2012 edition, this year’s GP Ouest France is likely to offer a similar script (though neither Gerrans or Bole are here to see it through): each lap around the town of Plouay will drop more competitors, as attackers try to get ahead and stay ahead and the chasers give dogged pursuit. Perhaps a late break will stay clear, or perhaps the peloton will reel all attackers in and give the day to a sprinter, as happened in 2010, when Matt Goss took the victory. The two biggest questions will be: will the pack catch everyone who breaks for glory, and if so, who will be the fastest man left?

    GPOF2013Profile

    There will be no shortage of elite tough sprinter types making the trip, and many of the names that featured heavily in the Vattenfall Cyclassics will do so again here. A few stand out to me. Chief among them is Alexander Kristoff, who took third in the Cyclassics behind John Degenkolb and Andre Greipel. He’s had a phenomenal year with top 10s in so many big, grueling one-day races, including all three Monument Classics he’s taken on so far. In his favor, GP Ouest France is a much harder race than Vattenfall (Andre Greipel isn’t racing, as the parcours is too challenging for a rider like him), and Kristoff is a high endurance sprinter who relishes the sorts of difficulties that could wear down even the others in that class of rider. John Degenkolb has a reputation for a similar skill set, and he is sure to be a threat here, but the inclines here will certainly push him to the limit. It’s been hard to predict Degenkolb’s performance this year, as he has peppered two beautiful wins in with a bunch of duds, and he has a tendency to disappear when you expect him to make a statement. Still, he obviously has the talent and the form, and with so many contenders, a good leadout will be all-important, and Argos-Shimano knows how to lead out its stars. Giacomo Nizzolo has been in the top 10 here in back-to-back years, and he’ll be extra motivated after a very frustrating Vattenfall Cyclassics, in which Lotto’s Marcel Sieberg swerved in front of him in the final moments, causing him to brake and miss out on the last push for the line. He’s looking extremely fast right now. Elia Viviani and Arnaud Demare are also great candidates for a bunch sprint victory. Viviani managed a nice 5th place in that race and has had good results this year, and showing a lot of versatility in the Giro. Demare couldn’t find an opening in Hamburg and came across a disappointing 10th, but he’s shown elite speed very recently and is a decent enough climber that he should be able to hang on.  Thor Hushovd leads a very strong BMC team and will look to pick up more results to continue something of a resurgence. Lotto-Belisol’s Jurgen Roelandts loves this sort of terrain. AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin, Movistar’s JJ Rojas and Francisco Ventoso, Steele von Hoff of Garmin-Sharp, Hushovd’s teammate Adam Blythe, and Saxo-Tinkoff’s Matti Breschel and Daniele Bennati are other names to watch in a sprint. 2010 winner Matt Goss gets an obligatory mention, and if he manages to stay with the pack he would be, if at his best, one of the fastest men here, but that’s a lot of ifs.

    I see Daryl Impey as a potentially better option for Orica-GreenEdge: he’s one of a number of in-betweener type riders who will hope the inevitable cat and mouse game over the hilly profile drops the Degenkolbs and Vivianis, leaving the survivors to fight it out in a very reduced sprint or with late attacks of their own. Impey’s form in the Eneco Tour was impressive: he was at his best on the very trying final two stages of that race, and should be able to hang on if his teammate fails. Greg Van Avermaet also has a fast finish and is coming off of a successful trip to the USA, where he showed off some capable climbing legs; if things don’t work out for Hushovd, Van Avermaet has a chance, as does Taylor Phinney, who has a great combination of straight line speed and endurance, though he doesn’t have much of a climber’s physique. Tony Gallopin’s all-rounder package makes him a candidate to win in either a bunch gallop or an aggressive strike over the Ty Marrec. Michal Kwiatkowksi has not done much since the Tour, but he is an even more complete rider than Gallopin, and should he be on form, he’ll be dangerous. Astana sends a trio of all-round threats in Francesco Gavazzi, Borut Bozic, and Simone Ponzi, who had a very successful Vuelta a Burgos, and can finish hard after a long day in the saddle: keep an eye on him. Cannondale’s inconsistent but talented Moreno Moser, Belkin’s Lars Boom, Sky’s Geraint Thomas, and Lampre’s Filippo Pozzato also fit the bill of versatile fast-finishers.

    Edvald Boasson Hagen won last year by bridging the gap between the bunch and a soloing Rui Costa. Costa returns to the start list, and he is one of the best among a third bevy of riders, those who will need to launch up the inclines ahead of the peloton to give themselves a chance at victory. Alberto Contador is also in attendance, and he’s unlikely to pass up a shot at victory if he sees it. Sylvain Chavanel leads a strong Omega Pharma-Quick Step squad in his home country, and with time trialing talents this big, a long distance strike from one of them seems likely. Michael Albasini of Orica-GreenEdge will see this as a perfect opportunity for his style of riding. With so many combative riders on the start list, it would be impossible to name everyone with a shot at breaking away, but I’ll give a few names I think could jump ahead: Ramunas Navardauskas, Katusha’s Alexandr Kolobnev and Simon Spilak, almost anyone from Euskaltel, Rein Taaramae, Wilco Kelderman, and any number of strong Frenchmen, including Julien Simon, Pierrick Fedrigo and the Europcar duo of Rolland and Voeckler. Voeckler looked pretty uninspiring in the Tour de France, but he just won a smaller French stage race (the Tour du Poitou Charentes) and he won here all the way back in 2007. Regardless of the result this year, he’s sure to at least earn some screen time with his signature grimace-heavy attacks.

    While many of the same fast men from the Vattenfall Cyclassics are in attendance, the outcome of the GP Ouest France will be far harder to predict, given the aggressive nature of the riding and the varied outcomes of the recent past. All things considered, I’d probably take Kristoff, Nizzolo, and Demare to hang on and lead the pack over the line, but whether they’ll be fighting for second or third behind someone like Greg Van Avermaet or Sylvain Chavanel is tough to say. As usual, I will name the guys I think are most likely to contend for Top 10 placings, but naming Degenkolb, for instance, as an outside top 10 contender doesn’t mean I think he’s going to come in 8th behind a bunch of other sprinters on my list: he’s likely to either be right near the top of the leaderboard, or nowhere to be seen; the same goes for the solo attacker types, as it is just too hard to predict who will get into the right break, and whether they will hang on or get swallowed up and finish well outside the top 50. No matter what happens, it will certainly be an awesome show.

    VeloHuman Predictions

    Winner

    Alexander Kristoff

    Podium

    Giacomo Nizzolo, Arnaud Demare

    Top 10

    Thor Hushovd, John Degenkolb, Greg Van Avermaet, Sylvain Chavanel, Daryl Impey, Elia Viviani, Michal Kwiatkowski

    Under the Radar Challenger

    Simone Ponzi

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by kaveman743.