You can check out my preview of Gent-Wevelgem (including the women’s race!) over at VeloNews… Though if you’re just looking for a men’s race Top 10, here’s how I see it playing out.
Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: André Greipel, Arnaud Démare
Other Top Contenders: Peter Sagan, Fernando Gaviria, Jens Debusschere, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Matteo Trentin, Jens Debusschere, Sep Vanmarcke
Photo: Dane Cash.
Most of cycling’s biggest Grand Tour stars are in Spain for the Vuelta right now, but the cream of the sprinting crop will be in Germany on Sunday instead to take on the Vattenfall Cyclassics. The event, which almost always comes down to a bunch sprint in Hamburg, offers the fast finishers a rare opportunity to take a one-day win at the WorldTour level, though a bit of grit will come in handy at the end of a long day: hardman Alexander Kristoff won the race in 2014 with Giacomo Nizzolo and Simon Gerrans behind him, all three of them besting even Marcel Kittel and Mark Cavendish in the finishing sprint.
The race starts in Kiel, Germany and heads southward to Hamburg, where the route twists and turns through the city and its suburbs en route to the finish line after 221.3 kilometers. The terrain is not particularly challenging throughout, but it does include one moderately difficult climb taken a total of three times. The Waseberg, about 800 meters long with an average gradient of about 15%, usually inspires attacks and puts a few riders into difficulty, especially during the third and final ascent of the climb with about 15km to go, but in the past the race has usually come back together before the line for a (sometimes messy) sprint on a flat straightaway.
It’s hard to see this race coming down to anything other than a bunch kick, but at the end of 221 kilometers of racing and a probably-hectic chase to close down any late attackers, the likely sprint for Vattenfall Cyclassics glory will be a lot more than just a test of pure top-end spend. A sprint may be all but guaranteed, but predicting the winner won’t be easy.
Cycling’s “big three” sprinting stars are all making the start. Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, and André Greipel are in a class of their own in the pure speed department, and all three will have a chance in this race.
Greipel comes into Hamburg on the heels an excellent Tour de France, and despite his stellar July, motivation should still be high: this is Germany’s only WorldTour race, and Greipel has been on the podium a three times in the last five years without winning. At this stage in his career, he has developed the strength to handle some climbs and some distance (as evidenced by his strong work in the Classics this year), and should come into the likely sprint finish in good shape. The big question will be the potentially hectic finale. Greipel has historically struggled in challenging position battles. If he is not afraid to take a few risks, Greipel might finally nab the Vattenfall Cyclassics win he’s been looking for for years.
Marcel Kittel at peak form is probably the fastest sprinter in the world, but Kittel has not been on the level this year. This race is also considerably more difficult than he’d prefer—of the aforementioned trio of speedsters, Kittel is probably the least versatile, and could come to the finish gassed if he gets there at all. He was in the mix in the 2014 edition of the race, but could only manage a 6th-place finish. Still, he’s hungry to pick up as many results as possible after a disappointing for half of the year, and this is a prime opportunity, so he can’t be counted out.
Mark Cavendish did not come away with as many stage wins from the Tour de France as he would have liked, but he’s still had plenty of success so far this season. He was 5th in Hamburg last year, and isn’t afraid of a hectic finale even if it isn’t his forte. He will be a top favorite for the win if he can stay well-placed coming into the finale, while Tom Boonen and Julian Alaphilippe make for impressive alternatives for EQS.
In a battle of pure speed, Alexander Kristoff is a step behind the aforementioned trio of Cav, Greipel, and Kittel, but he can’t be underestimated in his attempted title defense—the one-day races are Kristoff’s territory, and he’s a proven winner in the Vattenfall Cyclassics. He’s also carrying strong form right now en route to a bid for glory at Worlds. Kristoff can beat anyone under the right conditions. There should be plenty of action on the final ascent of the Waseberg, forcing some selection and making for a stressful finale, which will suit the stoic Kristoff well.
Giacomo Nizzolo has made the podium twice in the last three editions of the race, earning runner-up honors in 2014. Hamburg is a very important goal of his; his typical season routine starts with a buildup to a peak at the Giro, and then concludes with a second run at high-level success in the late-season circuit races. The motivation is there, and Nizzolo is particularly effective in hectic finishes. He’s also quite handy after a long day on the bike. In short, the conditions are perfect for Nizzolo to succeed. Converting that into an actual victory though won’t be easy, given the startlist and Nizzolo’s propensity to come up just a hair short in the big races. He’ll need everything to go right to turn a podium performance into a win.
Arnaud Démare has not had nearly the year FDJ was expecting of him, but he did win this race in 2012 and it does suit his strengths. He’s got a shot. MTN-Qhubeka has a pair of former winners on the roster in Tyler Farrar (two times the winner of this race) and Edvald Boasson Hagen. Gerald Ciolek makes the start as well. It’s tough to say who the team will back, but Boasson Hagen has been in great form of late and will have a chance if the day is particularly hectic. Greg Van Avermaet of BMC would love that scenario: if the race is hard enough to put some of the sprinters into difficulty, he’ll have a shot in a reduced bunch kick. So will teammate Philippe Gilbert, and fellow Belgian Classics star Sep Vanmarcke of LottoNL-Jumbo. Vanmarcke is building up to a strong late-season peak again after a disappointing spring.
Sam Bennett, JJ Lobato, Elia Viviani, Heinrich Haussler, Moreno Hofland, Andrea Guardini, Michael Albasini, and Niccolo Bonifazio are others with a shot at glory in Hamburg.
Winner: André Greipel
Podium: Alexander Kristoff, Mark Cavendish
Other Top Contenders: Giacomo Nizzolo, Marcel Kittel, Greg Van Avermaet, JJ Lobato, Sam Bennett, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Elia Viviani
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis, and don’t miss VeloHuman’s Vuelta a España stage previews—stage 2 of the Vuelta is running concurrently with the Vattenfall Cyclassics!
Chris Froome may have effectively sealed his 2015 Tour de France win, but the race reaches its official conclusion in Paris on Stage 21. Only 109.5km in total, the pack starts in Sèvres and then rides about 40km into Paris, where they begin ten laps of an urban circuit, finishing on the Champs-Élysées. The first third or so of the stage is essentially a procession to celebrate the race and Froome’s all-but-sewn-up overall victory. Once the peloton enters the Paris, riders will start to attempt to break clear of the pack for one last shot at glory in the world’s biggest bike race, and then the sprint teams will gradually wind up the pace. Things get very fast in the final few laps.
The final kilometer of the circuit has a large s-curve that veers left and then right again with around 500 meters to go, but after that it’s a straight run to the line where we can expect a high-speed sprint finale.
With a bit of rain in the forecast for the afternoon, there is a slight chance of wet roads at the finish.
Though the Tour’s final stage always starts out with relative calm, the stage victory in Paris is the most valuable stage win in the sport for the sprinters. There will be plenty of attempts to get clear on the urban roads, but don’t expect any attackers to get too much room. The Champs-Élysées is all about the quick men and a big bunch kick.
On results, one sprinter has been head and shoulders above crowd in this Tour: André Greipel. In a mass sprint, Mark Cavendish, the only rider who has beaten Greipel in a previous bunch kick in the 2015 Tour, looks to be the only one with a real chance of taking him on again on Stage 21.
Greipel definitely has the edge on win record so far in the 2015 Tour—Greipel has a three-to-one win advantage in that department. He’s been on terrific form so far in this race. However, both of Greipel’s first two stage wins came against a poorly-led-out Mark Cavendish, and Greipel’s third win was against a field that did not include Cavendish, who had been dropped from the pack much earlier in the day. Prior to this Tour, the younger Cav has typically had the better of Greipel. In short, there are reasons to like Cavendish’s chances despite his relative lack of success so far.
Both riders are without their main leadout men going into Stage 21, with Lotto-Soudal’s Greg Henderson and Etixx-QuickStep’s Mark Renshaw both having abandoned the race. I see this as almost a dead heat, but based on peak ability and past performances on the Champs-Élysées, I give a very, very slight edge to Mark Cavendish, who has won on this stage plenty of times before.
Behind the two top-tier sprinters in this Tour are plenty of hopeful quick men hoping to steal the day—but it’s hard to like anyone’s chances in this high-speed finale other than the two fastest riders in the race. Peter Sagan has come close in the bunch sprints, in the Top 4 of each of the race’s four bunch kicks so far with two close runner-up rides among those results. For all the talk you’ll hear from observers about him “not being a pure sprinter,” Sagan has an impressive turn of speed and can never be counted out, especially after a few days in the mountains that might have softened the legs of his rivals.
The same is true of John Degeknolb, who ran 2nd behind Greipel on Stage 15. He’s gotten better as the race has gone on, and, as he’s among the toughest sprinters in the peloton, he will probably be less depleted from the Tour’s visit to the Alps than most. Alexander Kristoff has not been as strong in this Tour as he was last year, but he came close to a Champs-Élysées win behind Marcel Kittel in last year’s Tour and also has endurance in spades.
Arnaud Démare, Bryan Coquard, Tyler Farrar, Michael Matthews, and Edvald Boasson Hagen are others who will have a chance at success in the bunch gallop that will likely close out the 2015 Tour de France.
1. Mark Cavendish | 2. André Greipel | 3. Peter Sagan
As Stage 21 is the final stage of the race, this is the last VeloHuman preview of the 2015 Tour de France. I’ve had a blast previewing every day of the Tour, and I have particularly enjoyed hearing from those of you who have reached out to talk racing, to ask for an opinion on your favorite long shot, or just to say hello! I hope you’ll continue to stay connected by following @VeloHuman on Twitter and by checking out the VeloHuman Facebook page.
While the Tour may be reaching its conclusion, VeloHuman is nowhere near done for the year! There are still previews and podcasts to come and plenty of favorites and outsiders to be named for big races like the Vuelta a España, Il Lombardia, and the World Championship Road Race, so even after the last rider crosses the finish line on the Champs-Élysées, stay tuned for a whole lot more in 2015. The race preview and the pre-race podcast for the always exciting Clásica de San Sebastián are only a few days away!
-Dane Cash
Zdenek Stybar made the most of a small gap earned on a late climb to come away with a stage victory on Stage 6, denying a charging pack of chasers on his tail. Many of those same chasers, along with a number of the heavier quick men they left behind on the final ascent, will be hopeful for another chance at glory on Stage 7. The 190.5-kilometer road from Livarot to Fougères includes just one categorized climb, a Cat. 4 in the first 15 kilometers. After that, it’s gentle rollers and stretches of flat all the way to the finish.
There are a few twists and turns and roundabouts inside the last 10 kilometers, which lead into a finishing straight that angles slightly uphill in the final few hundred meters. With several GC-oriented days (in the form of a few climber-friendly stages with a team time trial squeezed in among them) just around the corner at the Tour de France, Stage 7 will be a prime opportunity for the sprinters to fight for a victory before their aspirations take a backseat for a while to the hopes of the yellow jersey contenders.
Coming into the Tour, Mark Cavendish looked to be the strongest sprinter in the race, but he’s been beaten twice now by André Greipel, making the pecking order of fast-finishing elite in this race a bit less clear. In both of Greipel’s wins, though, the leadout did not go according to plan for Cavendish, leaving the Manx sprinter in the wind for far too long—that makes it difficult to draw concrete conclusions about this matchup in terms of pure speed. On the other hand, Greipel’s acceleration on Stage 5 was quite an impressive sight by any measurement, and the way he blew past Cavendish in the final few hundred meters makes it hard to ignore just how strong he is right now.
In short, I see this as pretty close to a dead heat. If I had to deem one the favorite, I’d still name Cavendish the rider to beat. QuickStep has, amazingly, won two stages and taken the yellow jersey in the first week of the Tour de France all without a Cavendish victory. If they can finally muster all their talents toward setting their sprinter up for a high-speed finish, he’ll be hard to beat. If not, Greipel has shown that he’s quite capable of taking advantage of the opportunity.
In terms of racking up near misses at stages that seem to suit him perfectly, Peter Sagan has picked up in this Tour de France right where he left off in the 2014 edition of the race. He’ll have another chance here, and in fact, I think he has a better shot that the profile might suggest. With a slight incline at the very end of the day, a few late roundabouts that favor his strong positioning skills, and the terrific form he’s shown in the sprints these past few days, he should be in the mix for the win even against the likes of Cavendish and Greipel.
John Degenkolb would probably prefer a more challenging approach to the line but he brings a lot of speed to the table in any scenario and should be able to fight for the win. Like Sagan, he’s had multiple near-victories, and is extremely motivated to finally take that elusive victory. Alexander Kristoff has been a bit slow to start in this Tour but he was in the mix on Stage 5 and this stage suits him well. Arnaud Démare, Greg Van Avermaet, Sam Bennett, Bryan Coquard, Davide Cimolai, and Edvald Boasson Hagen are others who should have a shot here.
1. Mark Cavendish | 2. André Greipel | 3. Peter Sagan
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 7. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.
-Dane Cash
With Tony Martin in the yellow jersey following a hard-fought Stage 4 win, the fifth stage of the Tour should finally give the GC riders a chance to take a breath after several days of very hectic action early on in the race. The 189.5km course has small rollers throughout, but there are no categorized climbs to speak of on the day. Without any great launching pads, and given the relatively light helping of sprinter-friendly stages in this year’s Tour de France, the quick men will be locked in for this chance at a bunch finish. The finale into Amiens includes a late right hook inside the final kilometer, but after that it’s straight out to the line for roughly the final 500 meters, meaning that if this does come down to a bunch kick, it’s likely to be a high-speed one.
Etixx-QuickStep’s attempt to set Mark Cavendish up for a Stage 2 win was one of the worst performances by the typically very strong leadout squad in recent memory, and the poor execution left Cav eating wind far too early in the finale. As such, he didn’t even finish among the Top 3 on the day. If Stage 5 does come down to a sprint and Cavendish is involved, I think things will likely go down just a bit differently. He should be the fastest rider in this race, and in a big bunch sprint he will be hard to beat, especially if his (usually) solid leadout train can get it together.
André Greipel is probably the most likely to challenge Cavendish in a sprint, but I’m not reading too much into the fact that Greipel won their first faceoff—the Etixx train was beat after a long day, and Greipel was able to rely on Cavendish himself for a great leadout. That seems unlikely to happen again. Greipel has terrific top speed regardless of the situation, but beating Cavendish a second time, not to mention all the other sprint favorites, will be a challenge.
Alexander Kristoff hasn’t made a big impact yet in this Tour de France but a bunch kick would be a great opportunity for him to change that. Kept out of contention on a Stage 4 that looked well-tailored to his skills by a mechanical, Kristoff will be determined to make something happen on Stage 5. Given how strong he’s been so far this year, I’m expecting him to contend for victory.
Giant-Alpecin gave away the win on Stage 4 by not chasing down a late attack by Tony Martin. They were probably afraid of leading out other riders to the stage win, but given the alternative of not having any chance at the win at all, it seems like a pretty foolish decision. In any case, the team will have another opportunity on Stage 5. I’ve always said that John Degenkolb’s pure speed is an underrated aspect of his very versatile game, and I do think he’s capable of winning even a big bunch kick against other favorites.
Peter Sagan has shown blazing form in this race, nearly beating the powerful André Greipel in a drag race on Stage 2. With another chance at a Tour stage win, something that’s eluded him for a long time now. Like Degenkolb, Sagan sometimes gets overlooked as a top sprinter because of his versatility, but don’t count him out even in a big bunch kick.
Nacer Bouhanni seems very likely to come out of that final turn in a good position given his ability to slot himself in perfectly for a sprint finish, and from there, he should be able to rely on his great burst of speed to fight for a result. That said, against this startlist, a win will be a challenge. He’s had plenty of success this year in lower-level races, and in a Dauphiné devoid of any other top-tier sprinting talent, but so far in 2015 he has yet to take a big victory over the caliber of riders in this race.
Arnaud Demaré, Bryan Coquard, Sam Bennett, Tyler Farrar, Michael Matthews, and Davide Cimolai are other riders who will hope to be in the mix on Stage 5, one of the few great opportunities in this Tour de France for the fast finishers.
1. Mark Cavendish | 2. André Greipel | 3. Alexander Kristoff
What do you think? Let me know on Twitter @VeloHuman, and be sure to follow for more analysis and commentary during the race. Check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 5. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.
-Dane Cash
After Rohan Dennis took a somewhat surprising Stage 1 victory, the Tour de France will stay in the Netherlands for Stage 2. A glimpse of the profile might give one the impression that the day will be a cut and dry sprint-fest, but the weather forecast might have something else in mind.
166 kilometers of pancake flat, Stage 2 certainly has the parcours to favor the sprinters, but crosswinds of the coastal Netherlands and a potential for rain in the afternoon will likely make this interesting. We can probably expect the echelons and the constant battling for safer positions typical of bike racing in this part of the world, which will challenge anyone with stage aspirations long before a potential bunch gallop to the finish line.
The profile suits Mark Cavendish, who is the best pure sprinter in this race, and while the weather will make this stage harder to predict than it might otherwise be, he should still be the favorite. Not only is Cavendish an excellent sprinter; he also happens to ride for Classics super-team Etixx-Quick-Step. If there is any squad likely to benefit from the conditions, it’s Cav’s own team.
André Greipel’s also-Belgian Lotto-Soudal team will be comfortable in questionable conditions as well, and in-form Greipel might actually be able to challenge Cavendish even in a straight up sprint. He has a good chance here, especially if his teammates can help put the pressure on his rivals.
Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff is great in a pure sprint, but he really shines after a tough day in the saddle. The worse the weather is on Stage 2, the better his chances will become. He’s one of several riders in the Tour, in fact, who combine Classics grit with sprinting prowess. John Degenkolb, Peter Sagan, and Arnaud Demaré are others. Sagan, in particular, could try to get aggressive and maybe attempt to leave some of sprinting opponents behind on the road to Zélande to make for an easier finale. Sam Bennett, Nacer Bouhanni, Greg Van Avermaet, the MTN duo of Tyler Farrar and Edvald Boasson Hagen, Bryan Coquard and Michael Matthews are others with a chance on Stage 2.
1. Mark Cavendish | 2. André Greipel | 3. Alexander Kristoff
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 2. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.
-Dane Cash