Tag: Andre Greipel

Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 13 Preview

Stage 13: Montecchio Maggiore › Jesolo – 147km

The bunch finally got its act together and reeled in the breakaway riders on Stage 12 to give Philippe Gilbert a win. Anything other than a second straight bunch finish on Stage 13 would be an embarrassment for the sprinters’ teams.

The stage has nothing remotely resemble a climb on it. In fact, the road goes slightly downhill from start to finish. After letting the early break get clear on a similarly sprinter-oriented Stage 10, the quick men should be able to get organized here and ensure that this stage ends in a bunch kick.

The finish is a bit technical. There are several roundabouts in the final few kilometers, and a right-hand turn with around 500 meters to go, after which comes a straightaway to the line. Positioning and a skilled, dedicated leadout will be critical. The potential for bad weather could throw this finale into chaos.

André Greipel is, at his best, the strongest sprinter on the startlist. That makes him an obvious favorite on the stage. Still, he’s prone to have off days, and Stage 13, with a few tricky challenges to navigate in the finale and the potential for rain, is a fair candidate to be an off day.

Perennial runner-up Giacomo Nizzolo might need some things to go his way to finally take that elusive Giro win, but there are more than a few factors weighing in his favor on Stage 13. Nizzolo has terrific top speed for a 500m straightaway and also has strong bike-handling skills and a dedicated squad of support riders to lead him into this finish. This will be as good a stage as any for Nizzolo, who has looked quick at the intermediate sprints and in the Stage 10 finish behind the breakaway.

Sacha Modolo has the top speed to win against anyone, if he can come into the finale in good position. He’s a top contender in any sprint.

Elia Viviani, like Giacomo Nizzolo, has looked strong at the intermediate sprints in this past few days. He’s also one of the two riders to have won a sprint stage in this Giro. He should be in the mix.

Luka Mezgec, Moreno Hofland, and Juan José Lobato could challenge the top favorites. Tom Boonen, Michael Matthews, Davide Appollonio, and Alessandro Petacchi are other quick men to keep an eye on.

VeloHuman Stage 13 Favorites

1. Giacomo Nizzolo | 2. André Greipel | 3. Sacha Modolo

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 13 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 22, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 10 Preview

Stage 10: Civitanova Marche › Forlì – 200km

The peloton has now had its first official rest day, but Stage 10 should give at least the GC riders another relaxing day in Italy—the profile is not particularly challenging.

The first 100 kilometers of Stage 10 are almost completely flat. The next 30 kilometers offer a few very small climbs, including a single Cat. 4 ascent, but after that, it’s pancake-flat again all the way to the finish line in Forlì. A pair of intermediate sprint points late the day will offer a preview of the probable sprinters’ battle to come. The combination of a sharp right-hander with a little more than a kilometer to go and a sharp left hander inside the final kilometer will probably be the route’s most compelling feature, as it will make for a stressful finale.

This should be a day for a big bunch kick—anything else would be a massive failure by the teams of the quick men. André Greipel is the startlist’s top-name sprinter, and after poorly timing his finishing kick on Stage 2, he got things right and powered to the win on Stage 6 to stake his claim to favorite status in the Giro’s fast finishes. With a strong leadout and a pure focus on just this sort of stage, Greipel is the rider to watch—still, he’s prone to having a bad day here and there, and that means that plenty of other speedsters will have their eyes on the possibility of a win here.

Behind Greipel the picture is a bit less clear, with several riders looking to have similar chances to come away with a stage win here. Sacha Modolo, like Greipel, is extremely fast on his good days but also prone to disappearing on others. He’s one of the few riders here with a good chance of beating even an on-point André Greipel.

Elia Viviani doesn’t have as much leadout support as his rivals but he proved that that doesn’t mean he can’t compete when he won Stage 2. It will be interesting to see if he expends energy trying to nab red jersey points at the intermediate sprints, however—that may take a bit out of him late in the day. The same is true for Giacomo Nizzolo, who has been active at the intermediates so far. In any case, both are top options on this day.

Matteo Pelucchi has been practically anonymous in eight of the race’s nine stages so far . . . but he was runner-up to Greipel on Stage 6, and in a stage without any uphill challenges like Stage 10, he has another great opportunity. Moreno Hofland is another sprinter who has been a runner-up in a flat finish (on Stage 2) and he should be in the mix as well. Luka Mezgec has the always well-marshaled Giant-Alpecin leadout to help him into the final few kilometers, and he’s looked good so far.

Tom Boonen, Michael Matthews, Juan José Lobato, Manuel Belletti, and Nicola Ruffoni are others with a chance on this stage.

VeloHuman Stage 10 Favorites

1. André Greipel | 2. Sacha Modolo | 3. Elia Viviani

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 10 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 19, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Montecatini Terme › Castiglione della Pescaia – 183km

Following two days of GC action and breakaway success (Jan Polanc won Stage 5 with a long-range move), the peloton will return to mostly flat roads for what should be a day for the sprinters.

Stage 6 opens and closes with long flat sections, with a bit of climbing (a single Cat. 4 and several uncategorized bumps) in between. It’s hard to see anything other than a bunch sprint for victory here. The finale involves a few corners and roundabouts but the last kilometer is basically a straightaway perfectly tailored for a drag race.

Unlike last year’s Giro, the 2015 edition of the Tour of Italy is lacking a dominant sprinter, but there are several very strong quick men who should battle it out for the win.

André Greipel, at his best, should be faster than the field. But he’s looked a bit below his best so far. He’s also somewhat inconsistent, and not prone to take control of all of a race’s sprint stages, even though he can beat the world’s best on a good day. On Stage 2, he opened up his sprint too early and couldn’t sustain his power on the slight incline to the line. Here, he’ll try to time things better, and prove that he’s still got what it takes to be the top favorite for this sort of profile.

Elia Viviani timed things just right on Stage 2, taking a victory on the day, and he’s worn the red jersey ever since. He lacks the level of leadout support that some of his rivals enjoy, but as I already pointed out in the Stage 2 preview when talking up his chances, I tend to think the necessity of a strong leadout is overstated by many observers. A fast rider with positioning savvy can win a sprint without much help, and Viviani has a great chance to do that again on Stage 6. Like Greipel, though he tends to have good and bad days, so it will be interesting to see if he’s still at the same level in this sprint that he was showing off on the second day of the race.

Giacomo Nizzolo has great top-end speed and will love the long, straight finale. He sometimes struggles when timing a jump coming out of a corner is required (even though he is a good bike handler), so he’ll be happy to focus more on the matter of getting up to blazing speed here in this probable sprint finish.

Sacha Modolo has beaten Mark Cavendish more than once in a bunch kick. It’s a bit hard to predict how he’ll do because he can go from hot to cold very quickly, but he seems to be pretty fast right now (he took a nice stage win in Turkey) and like Greipel and Viviani, if he’s on a good day he can be pretty hard to beat.

Moreno Hofland took 2nd on Stage 2 of this race somewhat surprisingly. He’s had big results in the past but against this company and in this big of a race, I didn’t expect him to come so close to the win. He tends to appreciate the slight gradients at the line (which this stage lacks) but he’ll still be dangerous.

Luka Mezgec was 4th on Stage 2 and has the always impressive Giant-Alpecin to set him up nicely coming into the final straightaway. The winner of last year’s final Giro d’Italia stage should be in the mix with the other favorites again.

Michael Matthews may have lost the pink jersey on the road to Abetone, but he’ll have plenty more opportunities for wins in this race, including here in this Stage 6. People often say that Matthews is “not a sprinter” because of his versatility, but in the same way that they’ll say that about Peter Sagan (who just beat Mark Cavendish in a Tour of California sprint) as well, that undermines the amazing finishing kick he does have. He’s capable of winning a bunch sprint if everything goes his way.

Juan José Lobato, Matteo Pelucchi, Tom Boonen, Nicola Ruffoni, and Alessandro Petacchi are others to watch in the field sprint likely to close out Stage 6.

VeloHuman Stage 6 Favorites

1. André Greipel | 2. Elia Viviani | 3. Giacomo Nizzolo

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and remember to check back after the conclusion of Stage 6 for the preview of the next stage.

-Dane Cash

May 14, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 2 Preview

Stage 2: Albenga › Genova – 177km

Road racing gets underway at the Giro d’Italia with a mostly flat Stage 2. A single Cat. 4 climb inside the final 60 kilometers is the only official categorized acent of the day. The finish has a few bumps, though, and the road to the line angles ever so slightly uphill.

With the general classification still completely unsettled and a profile without many big challenges, this looks like a sprinters’ stage all the way. There are several candidates for victory—although there are plenty of big-name fast finishers in the race, none comes in as the clear favorite for one reason or another.

André Greipel has the strongest track record and, at his best, probably the fastest kick. He’s probably the best bet to win Stage 2, though he’s here without much of a leadout and he’s not the most consistent rider in the world, often disappearing on days that would seem to suit him.

Giacomo Nizzolo can handle a slightly uphill finish and he’s highly motivated in this Giro d’Italia, with a dedicated leadout train to position him well among the favorites. Few can match him for top speed. Sacha Modolo is also extremely quick, and coming off a nice stage win in the Tour of Turkey. He can run hot and cold, but if he’s feeling good, he will be hard to beat.

Elia Viviani is a strong sprinter who won’t have as much support as he’d like, given the fact that Sky is here for Richie Porte; still, I think he’s capable of coming away with a victory in a straight-up bunch kick. Nacer Bouhanni showed last year that you don’t need an elite leadout to win big sprints in the Giro. Luka Mezgec does have a strong leadout squad but little in the way of recent results. Still, he’s a danger.

Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge can’t be underestimated even if a big bunch gallop. He’s been successful in that scenario before. With the slight uphill drag at the line, he’ll be an even stronger candidate for victory. The same is true for JJ Lobato, who has had a nice year so far.

Other candidates for victory in the likely sprint are Matteo Pelucchi, Alessandro Petacchi, Moreno Hofland, and the EQS duo of Gianni Meersman and Tom Boonen.

VeloHuman Stage 2 Favorites

1. André Greipel | 2. Giacomo Nizzolo | 3. Sacha Modolo

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis of the race, and stay tuned after the conclusion of Stage 2 for the preview of the next stage.

-Dane Cash

May 10, 2015
Gent-Wevelgem 2015: Race Day Thoughts from André Greipel, Sam Bennett, and Heinrich Haussler

VeloHuman caught up with a few of the potential protagonists of Gent-Wevelgem just before the start of the race to get some inside-the-peloton insight on the race and the day’s nasty conditions.

André Greipel (Lotto Soudal)

How do you prepare in the run-up to a race like this, when you’re looking to take that big Classics win?

The race is a bit different. . . . Unfortunately I got sick after Algarve so I had to have a break for a while. Now we have to make the best out of it. And of course, the conditions today, it’s the same for everyone. But it would be nice to win a race like Gent-Wevelgem.

How do the wind and the rain affect your hope that this race ends in a sprint?

It’s about the teams, and how strong the teams are. Of course there will be a lot of echelons today, and we’re going to see, and we hope we will be up there.

Who else will you have your eye on as rivals?

We have to work as a team. Until the end of the race, it’s really dangerous to get a disadvantage if others are doing an echelon, so we have to be concentrated on our team.

Sam Bennett (Bora-Argon 18)

How are you feeling in this weather?

Phew, I dunno. We’ll find out in a few more minutes. I don’t know. From the start it will be very difficult. It will be a long day. And with the weather, it makes it a lot colder, so we’ll just see how the body reacts.

What is the team plan for the day?

Just stay in good position all day, because you don’t know what’s going to happen in these races, you don’t know when they’re going to sprint, and try to be there for the end for the sprint. I think it’s going to be a select group, so hopefully we’ll be there.

You had a big win last month in Qatar. Still feeling on the same level?

I feel stronger, but I need a bit of luck to be in the right place at the right time I suppose.

Heinrich Haussler (IAM Cycling)

Thoughts on the weather?

It’s fucking shit. It’s fucking terrible, and it’s just going to get worse as we get near the coast.

How are the legs?

The legs are okay, it’s just always a matter of having good position in these types of races, having a bit of luck, no flat tires, no crashes. Hopefully that will be the case today.

-Dane Cash

March 29, 2015
Tour de France 2014: Stage 21 Preview

Stage 21: Évry › Paris – 137.5 km

With the time trial done and dusted (and won, unsurprisingly, by Tony Martin), only the Champs-Élysées finale remains in the 2014 Tour de France. Just 137.5 kilometers in length and quite flat, Stage 21 starts out in parade-like fashion, with champagne toasts and photo opportunities, and the pace remains pleasant until the peloton reaches Paris, when things start to speed up as the riders enter a 7 kilometer finishing circuit and begin an eight-lap journey to the end of the Tour de France. A few aggressive riders will attempt to break away from the pack on the circuit, but as the eighth lap and the final crossing of the line on the Champs-Élysées get closer and closer, the sprint teams will ramp up the pace, making it virtually impossible to stay away. Victory in the final stage of the Tour de France is one of the most prestigious prizes in the sport, and it’s rare that anything stands in the way of a sprinters’ battle royale on the Champs-Élysées.

Marcel Kittel of Giant-Shimano won the Champs-Élysées finale of last year’s race, and he is in the hunt for his fourth stage win at this year’s Tour de France. All three of his victories so far came very early in the race, as he did struggle a bit on some of the tougher stages after the first week, but Stage 21 doesn’t have the sort of profile that is likely to take much out of the massive German sprinter. Kittel has established himself as a dominant force in tests of pure speed, and he will be the rider to beat on the Champs-Élysées.

Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel does have a stage win under his belt in this year’s Tour, but he will be hungry for another here. In a drag race, few can match Marcel Kittel, but Greipel is probably the rider with the best chance of doing so. He has not done the best job of positioning himself in the many sprint stages of this race so far, but he has a strong support train and this is not a stage with too many obstacles for the powerhouse fast men to overcome on their way to the final few hundred meters. If he can nail the run-in, Greipel can challenge for victory on Stage 21.

Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff typically prefers fast finishes that follow hard days in the saddle, but he’s also got plenty of pure sprinting ability. He’s looked particularly strong in this race, benefitting from a team that is more focused on his success than they usually are. 6th on the final stage of the 2013 edition of the Tour, he could contend for the win on the Champs-Élysées this year.

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan will have one last chance at a stage victory in the 2014 Tour de France here in Paris. He doesn’t have the top speed of Marcel Kittel, but he was runner-up to Mark Cavendish in the final stage of the 2012 Tour, and given his talent and tendency to position himself well for the charge to the line, he can never be counted out.

OPQS’s Mark Renshaw knows how to deliver a result on the Champs-Élysées, even though in the past his biggest successes have been all about providing an excellent leadout to someone else. This year, he’ll have a rare chance to be the featured rider on the final stage of the Tour, and he’s shown impressive speed in this race so far. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare has struggled to make it to the finish with the lead group in many of the sprint days in this race, but the journey to the line is quite short on this stage. If he’s there in the final few hundred meters, he could be in the mix. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard has racked up quite a few Top 10s so far in the Tour, and as a star of the track, he’ll enjoy the chance for a drag race to the line.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati, Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas, OGE’s Michael Albasini, and AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin are outsiders who could land strong results on Stage 21, while Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb will be ready to step up for his team as a quality alternative should anything happen to Marcel Kittel.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Andre Greipel | 3. Alexander Kristoff

As Stage 21 is the final stage of the race, this is the last VeloHuman preview of the 2014 Tour de France. I’ve had a blast previewing every day of racing, and I have particularly enjoyed hearing from those of you who have reached out to talk racing, to ask for an opinion on your favorite long shot, or just to say hello! I hope you’ll continue to stay connected by following @VeloHuman on Twitter and by checking out the brand new VeloHuman Facebook page.

Lastly, an important note: while the Tour may be reaching its conclusion, VeloHuman is nowhere near done for the year! There are still rider interviews to come and plenty of favorites and outsiders to be named for races like the Vuelta a España, Il Lombardia, and the World Championship Road Race, so even after the last rider crosses the finish line on the Champs-Élysées, stay tuned for a whole lot more in 2014.

-Dane Cash

July 26, 2014