Episode 32: Paris-Nice 2016 Pre-race Show
The 2016 WorldTour has arrived in Europe—Paris-Nice is upon us! The podcast previews the eight-day “Race to the Sun.”
[powerpress]
Road racing is getting back into full swing, and so is the Recon Ride. Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano take a closer look at Paris-Nice.
Photo by Conseil départemental des Yvelines (CC).
The Dauphine was supposed to be a showdown between Tour favorites Chris Froome, Alberto Contador, Vincenzo Nibali, but other riders decided to crash the party, offering a chance for a number of stars beyond those big names to show off impressive form. At first, it did not look like any outsiders would have a chance. Chris Froome was impeccable in Stages 1 and 2, delivering a convincing victory in the opening time trial, and nabbing another stage win on the following day. Contador was not far behind in the ITT and just moments behind Froome on the second stage. Things seemed set for a showdown between the two, especially with Nibali showing signs of weakness: Astana’s GC man could not match the constant accelerations of his two rivals on the slopes of Stage 2. The coming days had plenty of surprises in store, however. Froome’s hard crash on Stage 6 raised a cloud of uncertainty over his race, but it was only the beginning of the surprises; Andrew Talanksy shocked the cycling world when his early attack on the final stage survived the immense efforts of a group of strong chasers, giving the American the overall victory ahead of Contador. Jurgen van den Broeck was another winner out of the move, sliding into 3rd overall. Meanwhile, Chris Froome couldn’t handle the pace of the chase and fell out of the Top 10 altogether, forced to be content with his two stage victories and the points jersey.
Unfortunately, Froome’s crash makes it difficult to draw any clear conclusions about his form coming into the Tour de France. He looked unstoppable on the first two stages, but it’s hard to say whether his vulnerability in the final two days was a result of his inability to match rival Contador, or pain from his injuries. With the way he rode the first mountain test, I have to imagine that his crash had a significant impact on him in the closing stages. Regardless, what could have been a major confidence booster for Froome in what has been an otherwise rough year was instead yet another disappointment. He goes into the Tour with question marks surrounding his campaign, no longer the sterling, heavy favorite he was in 2013.
Meanwhile, Alberto Contador made a strong statement: he put in a stellar opening time trial and matched Froome in the first climbing stage, even before Froome’s crash. He was by far the strongest climber of the GC riders in the penultimate day of racing. Though he was unable to reel in Talansky’s move on Stage 8, the strength he showed in his attempt was another impressive show of the excellent shape he is in. Even more encouragingly, he was able to deliver such a strong Dauphine despite lacking support from the big names that will support his Tour bid; top lieutenants like Roman Kreuziger and Nicolas Roche did not join him for this race. With the help of Tinkoff-Saxo’s first string, Contador will be an extremely difficult opponent in the Tour de France.
Vincenzo Nibali‘s 7th place in the final GC was not a bad performance, per se, but at no point in the race did he look the part of a Tour de France top contender. Time is running out for Nibali to find form in 2014 before his main objective.
Andrew Talanksy made the most emphatic statement of the Dauphine, and it wasn’t only due to his masterful attack in the final stage. He never would have been in contention for the overall had he not delivered strong performances throughout the race: 4th in the opening ITT, 5th in the mountainous 2nd stage, and the GC rider closest to Contador on Stage 7, Talansky was firing on all cylinders all week long, and he looks primed for another strong Tour de France (he was 10th last year). Jurgen van den Broeck can take many of the same positives away from the race: his podium position was the result of a consistent racing from the very first day of the Dauphine. He has been lacking that consistently recently. After a disappointing 2013, van den Broeck made a resounding statement to his team that he deserves another shot at the Tour GC this year.
Wilco Keldmeran followed up his 7th in the Giro with an excellent 4th at the Dauphine: carrying that level of form this far into June confirms that the 23-year-old is truly the real deal. Romain Bardet‘s 5th should offer a fair bit of consolation for his team; AG2R will be without Carlos Betancur come July’s main event. Adam Yates landed an impressive 6th; his Tour of Turkey victory and his 5th in the Tour of California were nice results, but a Top 10 in this race, one of the biggest one-week events of the year, is an undeniable confirmation of his talent.
Tejay van Garderen looked like a strong contender for the overall, but after faltering early he revealed that he had sustained a hip fracture in the Tour de Romandie; with that in mind, his 13th overall is not as disappointing. He did seem to get stronger as the race went on. Speaking of injuries and Top 15s, Leopold Konig notched an 11th place, which should give NetApp some hope that his recovery from a knee injury is coming along.
Among the stagehunters, Giant-Shimano’s Nikias Arndt took an impressive sprint win on a technical finishing circuit in the 3rd stage. It seems the Giant sprint train can do no wrong, no matter who is doing the sprinting (more on that train in the next Up-and-comer Q&A, so be sure to check back Monday). Simon Spilak was seen by many, including VH, as a potential outside contender for the overall victory, but whether due to heat or team leadership decisions, he instead spent the race hunting stage wins, and he secured one with a brave breakaway move on a hilly Stage 5. Teammate Yuri Trofimov, OPQS’s Jan Bakelants, Astana’s Lieuwe Westra, and Sky’s Mikel Nieve were other deserving breakaway victors.
For the second week in a row, the last stage of a major WorldTour race ended with brilliant fireworks to shake up the overall GC; again, an early attack stuck to the very end, overhauling the final leaderboard. Much like the Dauphine, the Tour de Suisse offered lots of insight into the form of some likely Tour de France protagonists, and it did it with plenty of excitement, to boot.
With his first opportunity as a Grand Tour leader approaching, Rui Costa delivered his third GC victory in the Tour de Suisse in grand style, on the back of some solid time trialing (his 3rd place in the Stage 7 chrono bettered even Fabian Cancellara) and stellar climbing, and with the help of the sharp racing mind for which he is well-known. His escapees held off a mad chase in the race’s final stage and he out-attacked all of them in the closing kilometers to take his first stage win and first overall victory in the rainbow jersey. It’s hard to know how Costa will fare in his inaugural run as his team’s featured GC rider in the Tour de France, but his performance in Switzerland makes a powerful statement about his form and his skillset, which is looking more well-rounded with every race.
Tony Martin of OPQS saw his chances at an impressive GC win slip through in fingers in the mountainous final stage, but he should still be very pleased with his trip to Switzerland. His ability to land a Top 10 in a very hilly race was impressive, and he won both time trials convincingly. That ITT success may not come as a big surprise, but Martin was not the bookies’ favorite in the first chrono due to its short length. With this form, he should be the favorite for the long time trial in the penultimate stage of the Tour de France, and he’ll also have earned trust from his team as a GC rider in chrono-heavy weeklong races to come.
Mathias Frank was a strong 2nd overall and, like Costa, his nice result was buoyed by a very impressive (and much improved) time trial skillset. That discipline is not traditionally seen as one of his strengths. This more complete game will serve him nicely in the upcoming Tour. Bauke Mollema, 3rd overall, did not time trial as well as expected in the Suisse, but he did climb at a very high level, an encouraging sign ahead of the Tour, especially after a slow start to his year.
Giant’s Tom Dumoulin is an established chrono talent who has flashed climbing chops as well, and he made a nice statement in this race; he used his skill against the clock to get ahead early and held on in the mountains for 5th. At just 23, he’s one of quite a number of exciting young up-and-comers for the Dutch team… again, check back Monday for more on Giant-Shimano’s young talent! Davide Formolo of Cannnondale was decidedly the revelation of the race. The 21-year-old was 4th at the Tour of Turkey, but few could have expected him to finish this major event ahead of Roman Kreuziger. He put in a pair of decent time trials and consistently climbed with the top GC riders, good for 7th overall.
Speaking of Roman Kreuziger, his Suisse was an up-and-down affair, and in the end, he settled for 8th overall. He did not time trial particularly well, and though climbed to a 2nd place finish on Stage 8, he missed the move on Stage 9 and therefore lost a chunk of time to his other rivals. It’s a disappointment for last year’s podium finisher, but it’s nothing to scoff at, and he certainly looks strong enough to play the role of elite domestique again for Alberto Contador.
Thibaut Pinot‘s 15th overall was a disappointment, but he battled sickness in the race and was unable to give it 100%. He still managed to find himself in the Top 10 on the Stage 7 time trial, which is a strong result in that discipline for him. I don’t think he’ll be too discouraged by his race.
For many observers, Bradley Wiggins will be seen as the biggest disappointment of the Suisse. He did not crack the Top 10 in the opening ITT, lost time in the following stages, crashed, and then abandoned. Sky reported that he had a chest infection coming into the Suisse, and his crash left him with a knee injury. Whatever the reason, Wiggins was unable to have much of an impact on the event. While Wiggins has already said that he won’t be on Sky’s Tour de France squad, the team has yet to make any official statements; unfortunately his forgettable trip to Switzerland probably won’t help whatever chance he still has. Teammate Sergio Henao was another victim of misfortune, this one more grave: he was hit by a car doing recon for the Stage 7 ITT, and he is out for the foreseeable future with a broken knee.
Wilco Kelderman may have been able to land a top GC result right after the Giro d’Italia, but Cadel Evans was not up for it; he finished 11th overall in the Tour de Suisse and never seemed to be a strong challenger. Fellow former Tour winner Andy Schleck was not a GC factor but he at least finished the race. Unfortunately his brother Frank crashed hard in Stage 3 and was forced to abandon.
Peter Sagan easily took his third Tour de Suisse Points jersey. He only came away with one stage victory, but he was consistently stellar over the whole first week, finishing in the Top 6 for six days in a row, and then notching the 15th best ITT in Stage 7. He looks very sharp. Mark Cavendish of OPQS took a convincing victory in Stage 4 to put the pure sprinters on notice that he’s feeling strong as the Tour approaches. Unfortunately, he was unable to contest the following stage: he was one of several riders to hit the deck in a crash in the last few hundred meters. Sacha Modolo survived the carnage to take a victory that day, and I doubt anyone will say that it was purely a lucky break as his rivals crashed behind him: he looked extremely fast in the final moments of the stage, and he’s been close to a victory like this for a while.
Johan Esteban Chaves deserves a paragraph of his own. Orica-GreenEdge obviously has a collection of brilliant sprinters, puncheurs, and breakaway artists, but they have been looking for a top-flight climber to score victories when the road goes up. Suddenly, they are flush with climbing young talent. Adam Yates has the makings of a star, as he proved in the Dauphine, and 24-year-old Johan Esteban Chaves Rubio, who, like Yates, also flashed brilliance in the Tour of California, made another loud statement this week with a victory on the Verbier climb. To boot, he did it with a late uphill surge from the pack of GC heavyweights, besting uphill stars like Roman Kreuzgier and Bauke Mollema. The future looks bright for OGE and their young climbers.
The Tour de France is now less than two weeks away. In the interim, national championship races will put new riders into national jerseys, and the Tour’s biggest protagonists will get in their final days of preparation before the main event. VeloHuman has plenty in store: check back soon for another entry in the Up-and-comer Q&A Series, and get ready for Tour de France previews!
-Dane Cash
Photos by Georges Menager and youkeys.
A great classics season has come to a close. It seems like every race had a thrilling finish, and, amazingly, each top level contest was won by a different rider. As the final stragglers crossed the Liege finish line (check out the VeloHuman Ardennes week recap here, by the way), the pro peloton entered a three month period of pure stage racing, starting with the Tour de Romandie. Six days of stunning scenery running through the French-speaking region of Switzerland, Romandie has seen quite an impressive past few years: every winner since 2011 has gone on to win the Tour de France that year. A good mix of time trials and climbing makes this an attractive option for Grand Tour riders. Chris Froome won last year’s edition in commanding fashion, with top lieutenant Richie Porte placing among the Top 10 as well, one of the pair’s many impressive performances in 2013.
A short prologue, a final time trial of only 18.5 kilometers, and no summit finishes practically guarantee a close fought race that will come down to seconds in 2014. Stage 1 and Stage 3 may be the best opportunities for the climb-happy types to create gaps, but they’ll need to be aggressive, and they’ll also need to descend well, given the steep run-ins for home they’ll face if they decide to attack on either of those days.
Last year’s victor Chris Froome would enter this race as the big favorite, but this season’s injuries and a very recent chest infection that kept him out of Liege-Bastogne-Liege raise questions. Sky’s insists he’s ready to go. It will all come down to his health, because if he’s recovered, a race in which one third of the stages are time trials is pretty much the perfect setup for a guy who is head and shoulders above his fellow GC types in that discipline. Sky teammate Richie Porte is in a similar boat, recently struggling with health issues but well-suited for the parcours should he find himself in renewed form. If Sky’s all-rounder duo are sufficiently recovered from their ailments, it’s hard to see around the team that has won this race in back-to-back years.
Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali was an 11th hour addition to the startlist, and one of the prime reasons I’m publishing the preview so late in the game! The elite all-rounder will relish the opportunity to face off against Chris Froome before the Tour de France, and he has a stacked team behind him. Nibali had a disappointing classics campaign but the abundance of mountains and time trials make this stage race more his style. Jakob Fuglsang is always a great second for the Italian Grand Tour winner. Janez Brajkovic (who has had a lot of success here through the years) and Tanel Kangert are additional members of a very dangerous squad.
Coming off a podium performance (and a stage win) at the Volta a Catalunya and a decent showing (6th) at the Vuelta a Pais Vasco, Tejay van Garderen is a top contender in a race with two days of time trialing. I found him a bit underwhelming in that discipline, and in general, at a Pais Vasco race that seemed to suit him, but he’s had a bit of time to rest and he’s building towards a July peak anyway, so I see him as a strong candidate for the overall victory here. Peter Velits is an excellent time trialist who was 9th in a Paris-Nice without an ITT, showing great climbing form in 2014—he’ll be a good second for BMC.
America’s other top 25-year-old all-rounder is another top contender here: Garmin’s Andrew Talansky will also appreciate the overall parcours. He has stated that this race is one of his biggest targets of the year, and he already has a history of success in the event—in 2012, he was 2nd overall to the man who the Tour de France that year, Bradely Wiggins. He rounded into form this year with a 7th overall at Catalunya. His combination of focus, tailored skillset, and past results puts him among the favorites. Garmin also sends Tom Danielson, 4th in last year’s edition, and the excellent Rohan Dennis, who is demonstrating a knack for success in shorter stage races early in his career.
Much like the aforementioned group, AG2R’s Jean-Christophe Peraud will be a tough opponent in a race in which time trialing is likely to be a major factor. His 3rd overall at Pais Vasco came on the back of a top-shelf day against the clock. Finding yourself on a podium ahead of Tejay van Garderen and Alejandro Valverde is no mean feat. He should continue his stellar form into Romandie. Actually winning a big race is a skill he is still finetuning, but with an open field and a parcours well-suited to his abilities, Peraud could start winning soon. He was 6th at Romandie in 2013, and looks poised to better that result this year.
Katusha’s Simon Spilak was runner-up in this race in 2013 (and he won a stage to boot) and overall victor in 2010. This is favored territory for the Slovenian all-rounder, and he’s coming off an excellent Pais Vasco, in which he nabbed 4th overall. Short stage races with a good mix of mountains and time trials are his bread and butter, and I see him fighting among some of the bigger name riders this week.
Time trial mileage will play its part here, but so will bonus seconds, and Lampre’s Rui Costa combines a decent time trial with an elite stage-winning/bonus-second-earning jump. He had an extremely disappointing Ardennes campaign, crashing in two of three races and coming away without a big result. However, he will be fresher than he might have been had he raced a full Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and the lack of victories in the rainbow stripes will motivate the always aggressive rider from Portugal. He has been 3rd in back-to-back Tours de Romandie, and he has won back-to-back Tours de Suisse, suggesting he knows what it takes to succeed in Switzerland.
The OPQS squad lining up for Romandie is very impressive, and full of potential contenders. Rigoberto Uran is not much of a time trialist, but he’s hard to beat on the slopes, with an explosive kick that he’ll likely be looking to use in Stages 1 and 3. Uran started off the year nicely by taking 3rd in the Tour of Oman, but then he seemed to fade a bit at Tirreno-Adriatico and the Volta a Catalunya. He skipped the Ardennes Classics this year to train, focused heavily on preparing for his main 2014 goal, the Giro d’Italia. He may be low on recent race mileage, but he’ll be rested and motivated to prove he’s back on form. Teammate Michal Kwiatkowski was a late addition to the startlist, and a major wildcard for OPQS. On paper, Romandie is perfectly suited to the wunderkind: he excels in time trials and he’s a very fast finisher who can get serious time bonuses, both skills that give him a leg up here. The only question for Kwiatkowski is whether he will be able to contest a race like this after going full-throttle in the Ardennes. He could challenge to win the whole thing, or he could just focus on stages, or maybe he’s just here to ride for his teammates. Tony Martin may be a legitimate GC contender with so much riding on the time trials. He can climb surprisingly well (he has always performed at a top level in the Tour of Beijing, despite a lack of chrono miles there). He was runner-up in 2011 to Cadel Evans, and with such a strong team to help on the climbs, he could be a serious challenger here. Thomas de Gendt is another good time trialist who is still looking for the climbing legs he once had; should he find them, he’s another nice alternative.
FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot impressed me with his performance in the Basque Country, even if the result was merely a 9th place. After Contador blew the doors off the contest on the first day, the race for the rest of the Top 10 essentially came down to hanging with the pack on the mountain stages and delivering a strong time trial on the final stage. Pinot did both. I think he’s rediscovered some of the form he seemed to lack in 2014. With a team full of opportunists like Kenny Elissonde, Alexandre Geniez, and Jeremy Roy, FDJ can send riders up the road to pressure on the other contenders.
Beñat Intxausti was 5th in Romandie in 2011. He hasn’t shown much in 2014, generally riding in support of one of Movistar’s bigger names, but he has a knack for succeeding when Quintana and Valverde aren’t around (he won last year’s Tour of Beijing ahead of the likes of Dan Martin and Rui Costa, and took a stage and 8th overall at the Giro earlier in 2013). Ion Izagirre put in a strong time trial at Pais Vasco, and his recent showings in that discipline (which helped him nab 2nd overall at last year’s Tour de Pologne), combined with proven climbing legs, make him another great option for the always strong Movistar team. With Nicolas Roche and Rafal Majka, Tinkoff-Saxo sends a powerful 1-2 punch. Neither rider has shown much yet this year, so form is something of an unknown, and I’m not sure the TT-heavy parcours suits them, but they’ll be a tough team to plan against on the climbs. Cannondale’s Ivan Basso has had a slow start to the year but with the Giro around the corner I imagine he’ll pick it up here. Mathias Frank will lead home team IAM Cycling in his home country of Switzerland. 2nd overall at the Criterium International, he’s showing an improved time trial, and he’s always been a strong climber. Belkin’s Laurens Ten Dam will hope to make an impression with the rare opportunity to ride for his own interests. Trek’s hopes are in the hands of young Riccardo Zoidl, and I’m excited to see what he can do in this race.
With a pair of days against the clock and a few stages that could end in bunch sprints, the Tour de Romandie is attractive some fine stagehunters. Marcel Kittel headlines the sprinters. He’s easily the class of the bunch, and he looks strong as usual this year after a dominant third Scheldeprijs victory early this month. Though he may not be daunted by the other sprinters on the startlist, he will have to work hard to make it over some bumps in the road, as every massed-start stage in this race has a few hills along the way to the finish line. Fortunately for them, Giant-Shimano has the fast-rising Luka Mezgec for the harder days if Marcel Kittel should struggle. He waited until the final day of WorldTour racing in 2013 to take his first victor at that level, but this year he has already racked up three WT stage wins, dominating the sprints in Catalunya. If Giant-Shimano doesn’t take a victory in Romandie, it’ll be a pretty big disappointment.
Taking on the Giant-Shimano sprinting juggernaut will be Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo, Movistar’s JJ Lobato, Belkin’s Moreno Hofland, Katusha’s Alexey Tsatevich, AG2R’s Davide Appolonio, and Lampre’s Robert Ferrari.
Time trial specialists (beyond the GC guys) include world champ Tony Martin (who may or may not contest the overall), Movistar’s Alex Dowsett and Jonathan Castroviejo, and Orica-GreenEdge’s Svein Tuft and Michael Hepburn. The first day’s prologue is short enough that it might favor a powerful sprinter: don’t be surprised to see the likes of Marcel Kittel or Giacomo Nizzolo (2nd in the very short prologue in 2012) give it a go.
Winner: Chris Froome
Podium: Vincenzo Nibali, Tejay van Garderen
Top 10: Andrew Talansky, Jean-Christophe Peraud, Simon Spilak, Rigoberto Uran, Thibaut Pinot, Rui Costa, Michal Kwiatkowski
I’ll be tweeting more live analysis during the race, so follow me @VeloHuman on Twitter! The next race on the calendar is a big one: the Giro d’Italia is just around the corner, and there will be previews of both the overall race and each stage, so be sure to tune in. Hope to see you then!
-Dane Cash
Photo by Georges Menager.