You can check out my preview of Gent-Wevelgem (including the women’s race!) over at VeloNews… Though if you’re just looking for a men’s race Top 10, here’s how I see it playing out.
Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: André Greipel, Arnaud Démare
Other Top Contenders: Peter Sagan, Fernando Gaviria, Jens Debusschere, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Matteo Trentin, Jens Debusschere, Sep Vanmarcke
Photo: Dane Cash.
While some of the pro peloton is in Spain taking on the year’s final Grand Tour, a number of other riders will be in Hamburg to take on the Vattenfall Cyclassics. The first of several late summer circuit races on the WorldTour calendar, the event offers the sprinting heavyweights a rare opportunity to take a one-day victory at the highest level. It’s a lengthy race at 247.2 kilometers, and there are a few bumps along the way, but it almost invariably ends with a bunch gallop.
The race starts and finishes in Hamburg, with a route that will take the peloton in several loops through the city and its outskirts. The terrain is not particularly undulating throughout, but it does become a bit more challenging as the race wears on. After a long and mostly flat first half, the riders face four climbs of the Waseberg, the only real uphill test that must be overcome before the finish. It’s not even a full kilometer to the top, but after a long day, repeated trips up the steep climb will wear down some of the heavier riders. Generally, the Waseberg is the site of attacks, and though in recent editions they’ve all been closed down before the line (which comes roughly 15 km after the last ascent), the potential for a late game of cat and mouse does make for a hectic finale.
Weather has played a role in this race in the past, and it may again in the 2014 edition of the Vattenfall Cyclassics. There is a possibility of rain and a likelihood of high winds in the forecast, which could make this journey from start to finish a bit more stressful.
With a sprint as the most probable outcome, a fast finish will be the most important asset for anyone to be considered a main contender here. Endurance to survive a long day in the saddle and arrive at the finale fresh will help. The big-name sprinters, especially those who are comfortable sprinting after 240 kilometers, will be the top favorites. Last year’s winner John Degenkolb fit the bill perfectly, but he is in Spain for the Vuelta. However, there are plenty of other top quick men on this startlist (the field is probably even stronger than it was last year) to battle it out for the win.
Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff was 3rd in the 2013 edition of the race, and given his impeccable form right now, he will have an excellent opportunity to improve on that this year. The Milano-Sanremo winner is at his best after a lengthy race, he doesn’t mind a few bumps on the way to the line, and his top speed has reached new heights this season, making him among the most likely winners of the race. Bad weather will only increase his chances. The very quick Alexey Tsatevich makes for a powerful teammate.
Andre Greipel took 2nd place for the second consecutive time in 2013 and he’ll again be a strong contender in 2014. He is one of the fastest sprinters in the world, and he has made it through this parcours to the seemingly inevitable bunch finish in the past. However, he’s been a bit of a mystery over the past two months, at times showing off the blazing top speed for which he is well-known, and at other times widely missing the mark in races that seemed to suit him. He’ll need to put it all together to come away with the win here, and he hasn’t had a perfect run-up to race after withdrawing from the Eneco Tour due to illness. The possibility of rain won’t help either. Still, if he is feeling good and positions himself well, he’ll be hard to beat.
Marcel Kittel is the best pure sprinter on this startlist, with the Tour success to prove it. In a straight contest of speed, he is very rarely beaten, especially with the help of the Giant-Shimano leadout. However, as impressive as Kittel is as a sprinter, he doesn’t have the same versatility as teammate and 2013 winner John Degenkolb; he struggles with even minor challenges in a profile, and after 245 kilometers, he may be a different rider entirely from the speed machine that won the sprint down the Champs-Elysees. He’s certainly a contender, but he needs to prove that he can handle long days with a few bumps along the way before he is favored to win a race like this. The team may rely on Luka Mezgec as a capable alternative. Mezgec has taken his game to a new level in 2014, collecting win after win in the spring and showing good form lately in the Tour de Pologne and the Eneco Tour. He is a bit more capable than Kittel on the tougher parcours. Simon Geschke is another nice alternative; should this race be more selective than it usually is, he’s a dangerous rider in a reduced sprint.
OPQS brings a team loaded with firepower, with sprinting star Mark Cavendish leading the way. He’ll be eager to reassert himself in a bunch gallop after his early exit from the Tour de France, and he’s obviously among the very best sprinters here, with only Kittel and Greipel as potential rivals for pure speed. Still, while he’s a bit more likely to make it to the line than the aforementioned Kittel, there is a difference between surviving and arriving to the finale with fresh legs, as this year’s Milano-Sanremo (where several riders outmatched him even in a sprint) showed. Gianni Meersman is a terrific alternative if necessary, having shown brilliant form at the recent Tour de Wallonie, and Tour de l’Ain. The versatile Meersman should have no problem at all with the profile or the length of the race, and he may have more left in the tank than others by the end of the day. The same is true for Matteo Trentin, who will be yet another option for OPQS. Mark Renshaw, who showed in the Tour de France that he still has a lot of speed, deserves a mention too.
FDJ’s Arnaud Demare took the biggest win of his career here in 2012, and he has the skillset to fight for the overall victory again this year. Apart from a forgettable, illness-marred Tour de France campaign, he’s had a strong season so far, and he’ll be motivated to show that he’s back to his best in this race. 2nd in Gent-Wevelgmen in March, Demare is especially strong after a long day in the saddle, making him a top favorite for victory.
Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo was 3rd in the 2012 Vattenfall Cyclassics. He’s had an odd year, with quite a collection of nice sprinting performances but only two victories (in the Tour de San Luis and the recent Tour de Wallonie). Timing has been a bit of an issue on a number of occasions, and this race’s often chaotic finale won’t help with that, but the route and profile suit him perfectly, and Trek has a fast group of riders in attendance to strengthen his chances. Given the possibility that the likes of Kittel, Cavendish, and Greipel may not make it all the way to the line with the lead group, Nizzolo could contend for the win.
Lampre-Merida’s Sacha Modolo has shown flashes of brilliance in 2014, but he’s missed out on several races that looked to be good opportunities as well. Crashes haven’t helped. If he can hang on here, he’s extremely fast and should be in the mix for the victory. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard has won some smaller races this season and will hope to put his strong finish on display on a bigger stage in Hamburg. Sky’s Ben Swift would probably prefer a few more hills on the profile, but he’s a good sprinter in any scenario, and the length of the race alone could give him an advantage (like it did in Milano-Sanremo this year, where he was 3rd); much the same could be said for his teammate Edvald Boasson Hagen, who, though he has had a year to forget, did win this very race back in 2011. NetApp-Endura’s Sam Bennett is another very quick rider who becomes more dangerous when the route to the finish line has a few challenges along the way. Movistar’s JJ Lobato, BMC’s Thor Hushovd, Garmin-Sharp’s Tyler Farrar (winner of both the 2009 and 2010 edition), Orica-GreenEdge’s Matt Goss, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Matti Breschel, and AG2R’s Davide Appollonio are others who could contend in a sprint.
Despite a historical precedent of bunch finishes deciding this race, a few teams have brought some talented riders, several of them familiar classics specialists, who will try to make things interesting by applying pressure as the long day nears its finish. BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet, OGE’s Simon Gerrans, Michael Albasini, and Jens Keukeleire, Astana’s Enrico Gasparotto, and Belkin’s Sep Vanmarcke and Lars Boom look to be the likeliest protagonists for a late move or success in a sprint from a small group.
Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: Arnaud Demare, Giacomo Nizzolo
Other Top Contenders: Andre Greipel, Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, Gianni Meersman, Luka Mezgec, Sacha Modolo, Ben Swift
-Dane Cash
Photo by youkeys.
The last week of March was positively full of WorldTour racing, and each day offered insights into who is on form and who is not in early 2014. Because of the major implications of the one-day races for the upcoming Monuments, and the golden opportunity to view the form of the top GC riders on the planet during their heavyweight bout in the mountains of Catalunya, I decided the races were worth a few minutes spent cataloging some post-race impressions.
Peter Sagan picked up the second major spring classic victory of his career last Friday at E3 Harelbeke, sticking a late attack with Geraint Thomas, Niki Terpstra, and Stijn Vandenbergh and rather easily outsprinting the rest of the escapees to the line. Sep Vanmarcke and Tony Gallopin jumped from the chasing pack for the next placings and then Borut Bozic led the bunch over the line, with Tyler Farrar, Fabian Cancellara (who put in a valiant effort trying to track down the escapees despite being delayed by a crash), Greg van Avermaet and a banged up Tom Boonen following, among others. Two days later in Gent-Wevelgem, the peloton ate up attacks one by one to force a bunch sprint, but not without danger along the way. Crashes wreaked havoc on the peloton all day, downing the likes of Ian Stannard (who fractured a vertebra), Andre Greipel (who broke a collarbone), and Tyler Farrar and slowing Cancellara. Enough stayed upright for a bunch finish. MSR winner Alexander Kristoff jumped first, but Sagan, John Degenkolb, and Arnaud Demare charged past as he faded. Degenkolb took the win with Demare 2nd and Sagan 3rd. Sep Vanmarcke was an impressive 4th. Boonen (despite an injured thumb) pulled in 5th.
Sagan’s strength in the successful E3 move shows that he’s on a very high level in the area of his game he’ll need most in the upcoming Tour of Flanders. Meanwhile, he couldn’t match high octane Degenkolb and Demare in the sprint. I’m beginning to think he has made a conscious decision to angle towards improving his climbing and endurance possibly at the expense of pure sprinting this year; Flanders will be a good indicator of things.
Fellow E3 top finisher Geraint Thomas looked very sharp, certainly back on the level after a messy crash in Paris-Nice. With Stannard out for the foreseeable future, Thomas’s showing is important for Sky’s classics campaign. The climbs and distance of Flanders will be a good opportunity for him to show off his skillset.
Gent-Wevelgem brought John Degenkolb the spring classic he’d been seeking. He burst onto the scene with a dominating Vuelta performance in 2012 and has built on that promise. I look forward to the next stage race that he and Sagan attend together. Arnaud Demare was very close behind him at the line. He will be disappointed at coming so close, but it was a good showing that bodes well for the future.
Despite a lack of success during the weekend, Cancellara showed continued power in his efforts at the front of the peloton in both races. E3 and Gent-Wevelgem are big events but Cancellara has his eyes on the Monumental prizes, and he looks sharp. Rival Tom Boonen took a backseat to Niki Terpstra in Harelbeke but he was quite quick in the Gent-Wevelgem finish. Like Cancellara, he looks ready for Flanders and Paris. Terpstra was doomed to 2nd when the E3 break was unable to drop Sagan, but he did look quite strong. Zdenek Stybar was active during the weekend and will relish the more difficult contests to come.
Sep Vanmarcke was one of the strongest riders in both races. He managed a 5th place in E3 despite running into mechanical issues on the day, and surprised many (including me) with his sprint to 4th on Sunday. It was nice to see him giving the races his all even when victory seemed out of the picture. He has been everywhere in the early season classics, and I think he’s likely to mix it up with Cancellara, Boonen, and Sagan in the next two weeks.
Andre Greipel missed out on a golden opportunity to pick up a big classics victory, and now he’ll miss time for injury to boot. It’s a shame for the German sprinter, who is a true gentleman of the sport, and who obviously has the talent to succeed in one-day races as well as in the Grand Tour sprints he’s known for.
Other takeaways from the E3 Harelbeke/Gent-Wevelgem weekend: Topsport Vlaanderen’s Tom Van Asbroeck looks primed for a bright future, getting into the Top 10 mix in G-W after already notching some semi-classic success in 2014. Jurgen Roelandts sniped the final Top 10 spot in G-W despite a last minute designation as team leader after Greipel went down. He has looked very strong across the first few weeks of classics season, and now that he won’t be on teammate duty, he could pose a threat in the race he took 3rd in last year, Flanders. Alternativley, Lotto could look to success from Tony Gallopin, who looked sharp on the climbs in Paris-Nice and who was strong at the E3 finish.
The heavyweight GC competition may have been the big story in Spain, but first, a quick word on the stagehunters. While John Degenkolb was prepping for his days on the cobbles, teammate Luka Mezgec was absolutely cleaning up the sprints in Catalunya, earning a hat trick of victories against the likes of Leigh Howard and Roberto Ferrari. He’s a versatile rider who can hang on over the climbs (kind of like Degenkolb) and he packs a heck of a punch… He also shares youth with Giant’s other star sprinters: Mezgec, like Degenkolb and Marcel Kittel, is only 25! OPQS youth Julian Alaphillipe (just 21!), a cyclocross transfer, looked strong as well in Catalunya with three top 5 stage finishes.
Now to the GC contenders. Joaquim Rodriguez won the mountainous 3rdstage, taking the race lead, which he successfully defended through to the final podium. Alberto Contador was 2nd on the day, and he defended that position through to the final podium as well. Tejay van Garderen, 4th on stage 3, improved his position by winning a cold, dreary, foggy stage 4, and he hold on for 3rdoverall. Romain Bardet was just behind, both on the stage and in the GC. Nairo Quintana and Chris Froome were strong throughout the race, but could not match their rivals at the top, settling for 5th and 6th, respectively.
There was plenty of insight to be gleaned from the climbers’ battle, but there are also some caveats. Starting with the insight: Purito quickly proved that his time away from racing was not spent on the couch. He was simply too strong on his way up La Molina, and if there were any concerns about his 2014 form heading into the month of the Ardennes classics, I’d say he dispelled them. Contador was among the top climbers on both decisive stages, and active on other days as well. Having just put in a Herculean effort in Tirreno-Adriatico, he still managed to challenge for the overall victory here, and if his performance in Italy did not say it emphatically enough, he is most definitely back. Meanwhile, Froome and Quintana, while among the best riders in the race, were not on the level of Purito and Contador. However, I think it is dangerous to draw too many conclusions from their performances. As was noted in the original preview, Quintana was still taking anti-biotics to stave of illness at the start of the race, and Froome was coming off of back pain that sidelined him for Tirreno-Adriatico and subsequent training. Given the circumstances, Quintana and Froome looked fine in Catalunya and I don’t think either is concerned.
To my mind, Tejay van Garderen made the biggest statement of the race. Despite lurking at the top levels of the sport in the past two years, Tejay had yet to take a WorldTour victory before last week. He remedied that with a beautiful uphill charge through the mist on a stage 4 whose conditions were so bad that the only TV coverage came in the final ten minutes of the race. After last year’s disappointing Tour de France, Tejay looks to be better than ever, and winning a stage with a quick upward burst is even more impressive, as van Garderen is not really known for explosiveness. To stand on the podium in a race without a time trial against such high level competition bodes extremely well for van Garderen. AG2R’s Romain Bardet, who narrowly missed the stage 4 victory behind van Garderen, was vindicated after a series of misfortunes kept him from contending in Paris-Nice with his 4th overall here, on the same time as Nairo Quintana.
Garmin will be pleased with Andrew Talansky’s 7th place, just behind Froome himself. The American was still rounding into form at Tirreno-Adriatico, and it looks like he is progressing nicely ahead of his first big target of the season, the Tour de Romandie. Meanwhile, teammates Dan Martin and Ryder Hesjedal both look to coming along as well (Martin is targeting the Ardennes and the Giro), from the same position of uncertainty.
Warren Barguil was another statement-maker. Two Vuelta wins last year put the young French Giant-Shimano rider on the map, but as both came in breakaways, he had yet to mix it up with the big GC riders. Barguil crossed the line in the stage 4 finish behind Chris Froome, and ended the race 9th overall. According to ProCyclingStats, he’s set to start the Ardennes classics for GSH, and with Tom Dumoulin (winner of the Criterium International ITT) he makes a dangerous duo with the potential for serious long range strikes.
The stars of E3 and Gent-Wevelgem take on the biggest prizes of the classics season in the next two weeks, starting in Flanders on Sunday. Meanwhile, many of the top names from Catalunya will head across Spain to start in the Tour of the Basque country, with Amstel, La Fleche Wallonne, and Liege to follow.
The Tour of Flanders and Tour of the Basque country are the next previews on the docket. As usual, I’ll also be tweeting plenty of analysis of the action; be sure to follow the new @VeloHuman on Twitter!
-Dane Cash
Photo by Mossos.
An Open Field
A circuit race comprising nine laps around a 27km loop, GP Ouest France provides just enough tough climbs to keep you guessing until the very end: recent races have come down to late attacks battling a hard-charging peloton full of sprinters to the line. The 2013 startlist reflects this trend, with a number of powerful sprinters and aggressive attackers making the trip to Brittany. Last year saw Edvald Boasson Hagen launch a last minute assault over the final climb of Ty Marrec to catch and pass soloist Rui Costa, while the bunch finished just behind them. 2011 offered a similar result, with Grega Bole striking out with 2 kilometers remaining and just managing to beat a Simon Gerrans-led pack to the finish. With the same route as the 2012 edition, this year’s GP Ouest France is likely to offer a similar script (though neither Gerrans or Bole are here to see it through): each lap around the town of Plouay will drop more competitors, as attackers try to get ahead and stay ahead and the chasers give dogged pursuit. Perhaps a late break will stay clear, or perhaps the peloton will reel all attackers in and give the day to a sprinter, as happened in 2010, when Matt Goss took the victory. The two biggest questions will be: will the pack catch everyone who breaks for glory, and if so, who will be the fastest man left?
There will be no shortage of elite tough sprinter types making the trip, and many of the names that featured heavily in the Vattenfall Cyclassics will do so again here. A few stand out to me. Chief among them is Alexander Kristoff, who took third in the Cyclassics behind John Degenkolb and Andre Greipel. He’s had a phenomenal year with top 10s in so many big, grueling one-day races, including all three Monument Classics he’s taken on so far. In his favor, GP Ouest France is a much harder race than Vattenfall (Andre Greipel isn’t racing, as the parcours is too challenging for a rider like him), and Kristoff is a high endurance sprinter who relishes the sorts of difficulties that could wear down even the others in that class of rider. John Degenkolb has a reputation for a similar skill set, and he is sure to be a threat here, but the inclines here will certainly push him to the limit. It’s been hard to predict Degenkolb’s performance this year, as he has peppered two beautiful wins in with a bunch of duds, and he has a tendency to disappear when you expect him to make a statement. Still, he obviously has the talent and the form, and with so many contenders, a good leadout will be all-important, and Argos-Shimano knows how to lead out its stars. Giacomo Nizzolo has been in the top 10 here in back-to-back years, and he’ll be extra motivated after a very frustrating Vattenfall Cyclassics, in which Lotto’s Marcel Sieberg swerved in front of him in the final moments, causing him to brake and miss out on the last push for the line. He’s looking extremely fast right now. Elia Viviani and Arnaud Demare are also great candidates for a bunch sprint victory. Viviani managed a nice 5th place in that race and has had good results this year, and showing a lot of versatility in the Giro. Demare couldn’t find an opening in Hamburg and came across a disappointing 10th, but he’s shown elite speed very recently and is a decent enough climber that he should be able to hang on. Thor Hushovd leads a very strong BMC team and will look to pick up more results to continue something of a resurgence. Lotto-Belisol’s Jurgen Roelandts loves this sort of terrain. AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin, Movistar’s JJ Rojas and Francisco Ventoso, Steele von Hoff of Garmin-Sharp, Hushovd’s teammate Adam Blythe, and Saxo-Tinkoff’s Matti Breschel and Daniele Bennati are other names to watch in a sprint. 2010 winner Matt Goss gets an obligatory mention, and if he manages to stay with the pack he would be, if at his best, one of the fastest men here, but that’s a lot of ifs.
I see Daryl Impey as a potentially better option for Orica-GreenEdge: he’s one of a number of in-betweener type riders who will hope the inevitable cat and mouse game over the hilly profile drops the Degenkolbs and Vivianis, leaving the survivors to fight it out in a very reduced sprint or with late attacks of their own. Impey’s form in the Eneco Tour was impressive: he was at his best on the very trying final two stages of that race, and should be able to hang on if his teammate fails. Greg Van Avermaet also has a fast finish and is coming off of a successful trip to the USA, where he showed off some capable climbing legs; if things don’t work out for Hushovd, Van Avermaet has a chance, as does Taylor Phinney, who has a great combination of straight line speed and endurance, though he doesn’t have much of a climber’s physique. Tony Gallopin’s all-rounder package makes him a candidate to win in either a bunch gallop or an aggressive strike over the Ty Marrec. Michal Kwiatkowksi has not done much since the Tour, but he is an even more complete rider than Gallopin, and should he be on form, he’ll be dangerous. Astana sends a trio of all-round threats in Francesco Gavazzi, Borut Bozic, and Simone Ponzi, who had a very successful Vuelta a Burgos, and can finish hard after a long day in the saddle: keep an eye on him. Cannondale’s inconsistent but talented Moreno Moser, Belkin’s Lars Boom, Sky’s Geraint Thomas, and Lampre’s Filippo Pozzato also fit the bill of versatile fast-finishers.
Edvald Boasson Hagen won last year by bridging the gap between the bunch and a soloing Rui Costa. Costa returns to the start list, and he is one of the best among a third bevy of riders, those who will need to launch up the inclines ahead of the peloton to give themselves a chance at victory. Alberto Contador is also in attendance, and he’s unlikely to pass up a shot at victory if he sees it. Sylvain Chavanel leads a strong Omega Pharma-Quick Step squad in his home country, and with time trialing talents this big, a long distance strike from one of them seems likely. Michael Albasini of Orica-GreenEdge will see this as a perfect opportunity for his style of riding. With so many combative riders on the start list, it would be impossible to name everyone with a shot at breaking away, but I’ll give a few names I think could jump ahead: Ramunas Navardauskas, Katusha’s Alexandr Kolobnev and Simon Spilak, almost anyone from Euskaltel, Rein Taaramae, Wilco Kelderman, and any number of strong Frenchmen, including Julien Simon, Pierrick Fedrigo and the Europcar duo of Rolland and Voeckler. Voeckler looked pretty uninspiring in the Tour de France, but he just won a smaller French stage race (the Tour du Poitou Charentes) and he won here all the way back in 2007. Regardless of the result this year, he’s sure to at least earn some screen time with his signature grimace-heavy attacks.
While many of the same fast men from the Vattenfall Cyclassics are in attendance, the outcome of the GP Ouest France will be far harder to predict, given the aggressive nature of the riding and the varied outcomes of the recent past. All things considered, I’d probably take Kristoff, Nizzolo, and Demare to hang on and lead the pack over the line, but whether they’ll be fighting for second or third behind someone like Greg Van Avermaet or Sylvain Chavanel is tough to say. As usual, I will name the guys I think are most likely to contend for Top 10 placings, but naming Degenkolb, for instance, as an outside top 10 contender doesn’t mean I think he’s going to come in 8th behind a bunch of other sprinters on my list: he’s likely to either be right near the top of the leaderboard, or nowhere to be seen; the same goes for the solo attacker types, as it is just too hard to predict who will get into the right break, and whether they will hang on or get swallowed up and finish well outside the top 50. No matter what happens, it will certainly be an awesome show.
VeloHuman Predictions
Winner
Alexander Kristoff
Podium
Giacomo Nizzolo, Arnaud Demare
Top 10
Thor Hushovd, John Degenkolb, Greg Van Avermaet, Sylvain Chavanel, Daryl Impey, Elia Viviani, Michal Kwiatkowski
Under the Radar Challenger
Simone Ponzi
-Dane Cash
Photo by kaveman743.
To Hamburg!
While many of the world’s biggest GC threats are suffering in Spain, some of cycling’s fastest fast men are headed to Hamburg, Germany for the annual sprintfest known as the Vattenfall Cyclassics. The course, which loops a few times around the greater Hamburg area, ostensibly contains a lump or two, but the difficult ascents amount to little more than repeated trips over one very short berg and a few bridges.
Every edition in recent memory (and it hasn’t been around very long) has ended in a bunch sprint, and every recent winner has been a marquee sprinter. Last year, Arnaud Demare nabbed the victory and relegated power sprinter Andre Greipel to second place. With another Cyclassic final likely to come down to a mass gallop, the leaderboard should once again read as a who’s who of on-form hard finishers, albeit minus Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, and two-time winner Tyler Farrar, who is spending a few days in Spain.
Leading the way, certainly somewhere near the top, should be Andre Greipel. He’s been 3rd and 2nd here before, he’s got a strong leadout squad, and he looks very sharp right now. He was right there with Cav and Kittel in so many Tour de France finishes, but he only notched one victory, losing out in photo finishes to his countryman Kittel twice. He won a stage in the Eneco Tour, but will surely feel robbed of better results after Mark Renshaw galloped out ahead around a sharp turn on the flat, would-be sprinter’s first stage; Greipel won the bunch sprint for second. He stayed sharp all week, winning in the fourth stage and gunning for the intermediates in an attempt to nab the points jersey, only to be pipped by a whopping one point by Lars Boom in the end. In other words, the form is definitely there, but the Gorilla will be hungry for more concrete results. This is the only WorldTour race in his home country, and a perfect opportunity for him to finally take a one-day victory at the WT level.
Last year’s winner Demare has been sharp recently as well, taking a victory of his own in the Eneco Tour to add to several other big wins this year. He’s just 21 years old, and he’s got a strong finishing kick and a healthy dose of endurance, making him a good bet on a long race like this one.
Young Radioshack sprinter Giacomo Nizzolo rounded out last year’s podium. He’s won a pair of sprint victories this year at the Skoda Tour de Luxembourg, but those were against rather weak competition. However, he looked very strong at this month’s Eneco Tour, where, like Greipel, he probably felt robbed of a victory when Zdenek Stybar won stage 3 with an attack near the finish: Nizzolo won the bunch sprint behind him. He was just behind Greipel on Stages 2 and 4. After knocking at the door all week in the Low Countries, Nizzolo would love to make a statement at Vattenfall, and I think he has a great shot at it.
Alexander Kristoff was 4th here back in 2010 when he was just 23. After back-to-back finishes just outside the top 10, I think he’s on track for another strong showing this year: he’s been on fire basically since March, winning one of the Three Days of De Panne to kick off a string of high placings in major races, including top 10s in Paris-Roubaix, Milano-San Remo, and the Tour of Flanders, three wins in the Glava Tour, and a win over Peter Sagan in a sprint at the Tour de Suisse. He was always in the mix in the Tour de France sprints despite lacking much team support. Katusha won’t be distracted here, and he’s got the all-around fastman package to add to his palmares this year.
Gerald Ciolek was second in the 2011 edition and MTN Qhubeka is here again with a big showing in mind. Toiling away on a Pro Continental squad, Ciolek has only attended two WorldTour races this year, but he won one of them, and it happened to be the monumental Milano-San Remo. Recent good results in the run-up to this event are scarce for him, but they were in 2011 as well, and Ciolek is a tough, smart racer in his home country, and he doesn’t get as many opportunities to race on the highest level as he should.
Thor Hushovd, recently back from a long slump, will clip in Sunday looking for more results. He won a pair of stages in Poland and has taken a slew of recent victories in smallar races. German sprinter John Degenkolb actually hasn’t raced here before, and he’ll be in attendance as well, but he hasn’t really lived up to his name lately. He’ll look to get back on track in front of a crowd full of countrymen. Orica GreenEdge sends both Matt Goss and Daryl Impey. Goss is a better pure sprinter, but of course he’s been invisible lately. Impey will take up the slack if Goss drops off the back early, as has been his M.O. for a while, though if he does make it to the finish, this is a good opportunity for him to get his mojo back. Elia Viviani will be days removed from a win at the Dutch Food Valley Classic. He was always in the mix at the Giro and picked up a win in the Dauphine; I don’t know if he can outkick some of the stronger names in attendance, but being in the mix isn’t out of the question. Lampre sends Filippo Pozzato, also in the mix often at the Giro.
Belkin’s Lars Boom and Omega Pharma-Quick Step’s Alessandro Petacchi are both coming off of Eneco Tours in which they featured prominentaly in a number of sprint stages. Boom, as has been mentioned, worked hard for the points jersey as a consolation for missing out on GC. He’ll want more results this year after a disappointing spring. Petacchi will be supported by an always strong OPQS squad that includes Michal Kwiatkowski. Movistar’s J.J. Rojas, master of the decent-but-not-great finishing sprint, was 5th here in 2011 and can probably muster another top 10. Saxo-Tinkoff’s Daniele Bennati last raced here in 2010, and he finished 5th then. He seems to be slowing down but he looked alright without much team support in the Tour. His teammate Matti Breschel was 2nd in the 2009 edition and looked very strong in the recent Tour of Denmark.
Vacansoleil is sending both van Poppels. Danny was the better rider in the Tour de France, where he managed a top three finish on the first stage. Hard to call.
My under-the-radar pick is Garmin’s 25 year old Steele von Hoff, who hung right with Hushovd on stage 3 of the Tour de Pologne and then won the bunch sprint for second place moments behind Taylor Phinney on stage 4. Those were long days in the saddle, much like this will be, and the time seems right for him to make a splash. Garmin also has the young Raymond Kreder.
VeloHuman Predictions
Winner
Andre Greipel
Podium
Alexander Kristoff, Giacomo Nizzolo
Top 10
Arnaud Demare, Gerald Ciolek, Thor Hushovd, Elia Viviani, Lars Boom, J.J. Rojas, John Degenkolb
Under the Radar Challenger
Steele von Hoff
-Dane Cash
Photo by Sum_of_Marc.