Stage 15: Marostica › Madonna di Campiglio – 165km
Now that the stage 14 time trial has shaken up the GC (Vasil Kiryienka’s stage win was perhaps overshadowed by his teammate Richie Porte losing another chunk of time to his rivals) and put Alberto Contador back on top of the overall leaderboard, the peloton heads to the mountains.
Stage 15 is a tough climbing stage. Things get started with a long, low-gradient, uncategorized ascent into the Cat. 2 climb of La Fricca. From there, it’s a long descent and a few rollers before the harsh Cat. 1 Passo Daone climb, 8.4km at a 9.2% average gradient. A steep downhill from the top of that climb leads into an uncategorized ascent into the final categorized challenge of the day, the Cat. 1 Madonna di Campigilio climb to a summit finish, 15.5km at 5.9%.
The three official climbs and the other unmarked uphill sections would make this a challenging day no matter where it found itself in the Giro stage order, but coming on the heels of a brutal almost-60km time trial, it will hurt. As with any up-and-down climber-friendly day, this one will give the breakaway a chance at success, but with the added factor of following up a day that most certainly wore out the GC contenders, it seems like a good bet that the breakaway riders who saved their legs on Stage 14 will have a great chance of going the distance on Stage 15. Even if the GC riders were completely fresh, Tinkoff-Saxo has showed little interest in closing down the breakaways so far in this race. That makes it a really tough one to predict, but there are a few likely protagonists.
Beñat Intxausti will want to get up the road on this stage in pursuit of KOM points. His hold on the blue jersey is tenuous, and there are plenty of points on offer here. If he can get into the break, he’ll be very dangerous. He’s in excellent form and these climbs suit him well. Teammates Ion Izagirre and Giovanni Visconti will also be worth watching.
Carlos Betancur is another rider hunting that KOM title, and he seems to improve daily in this Giro. This stage will really test his endurance. If he can get into the break, he’ll probably be able to outpunch Intxausti for the earlier KOMs, but things could get tough on the final climb when the lead group starts to get whittled down. In any case, Betancur is a dangerous rider on this climb-happy parcours.
Ryder Hesjedal is far enough out of GC contention to get some breathing room here, and he’s looked pretty good so far in this race. Cannondale-Garmin will almost certainly put a rider up the road early on; the question is whether it will be Hesjedal, or the also-strong Davide Formolo and Tom Danielson. All of them are danger men from the breakaway.
Stefano Pirazzi, Edoardo Zardini, Esteban Chaves, Franco Pellizotti, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Darwin Atapuma, Jan Polanc, Steven Kruijswijk, and Ilnur Zakarin are others on a very long list of potential long-range contenders here.
If the GC favorites do fight it out for stage honors, a flying Alberto Contador is the obvious choice, though he might have less incentive to attack now that he’s healthily in the GC lead again. Fabio Aru may look to get aggressive on the steep slopes to put pressure on Contador and attempt to claw back time, but expect Tinkoff-Saxo to be watching him very closely. His teammate Mikel Landa, Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Rigoberto Urán, Leopold König, now-way-out-of-contention Richie Porte, and Damiano Caruso, meanwhile, probably seem like less of a threat to Contador and could get some leeway to attack on the Madonna di Campigilio climb.
VeloHuman Stage 15 Favorites
1. Beñat Intxausti | 2. Carlos Betancur | 3. Mikel Landa
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. Stage 15 is followed by a rest day, so check back on Monday for the preview of the next stage. In the meantime, keep an eye out for the next episode of the Recon Ride podcast!
-Dane Cash