Tag: Bradley Wiggins

Paris-Roubaix 2015 Preview

After weeks of exciting racing in Northern Europe, the grand finale of the Cobbled Classics has arrived. Paris-Roubaix gets underway Sunday morning in the small town of Compiegne, about an hour North of Paris by car, and after roughly six hours of racing, 2015 will crown its third Monument winner.

The Route

The route of Paris-Roubaix 2015 is much like the route of Paris-Roubaix 2014, with the same few sectors of especially vicious cobbles likely to force selection. Its name notwithstanding, Paris-Roubaix starts in the town of Compiègne, about an hour north of Paris. The first 98 km are, comparatively, quite easy, but then the peloton will hit the first of twenty-seven classified cobbled sections.

The Troisvilles sector that kicks things off is not among the hardest but after nearly 100 km of growing tension there will be a mad dash for position and things are likely to get a bit chippy. Other sectors of only moderate difficulty follow, until the first five-star sector, the Arenberg trench, reached at kilometer 158. 2.4 km of very challenging cobbles, plenty of riders see their Roubaix hopes meet an early demise on the rough terrain. The run-up to the Arenberg is typically where the action starts in earnest in Paris-Roubaix, and after that, it doesn’t stop, with several difficult sectors to follow before another particularly challenging sector, Mons-en-Pévèle. 204.5 km into the race, it is a very long stretch of cobblestones at 3 kilometers, and a place likely to see a few long-range attackers attempting to get clear.

After a few more cobbled sectors comes the final five-star challenge, the Carrefour de l’Arbre, 2.1 km of particularly nasty cobbles. As the pack, or what’s left of it, will hit this section with only 17 kilometers remaining in the race, it’s the perfect spot to launch an attack. Those who survive the Carrefour de l’Arbre will only face three more comparatively easy cobbled sections before the race finishes with 800 meters in the Roubaix velodrome.

“Anything can happen” is a mantra often used and reused to describe bike races, but nowhere else does it ring true quite like it does here. Positioning is critical, with the peloton stretching out and tightening up again constantly, and with attacks flying at all times. On this difficult terrain, mechanical problems are always a major concern, and in so many of the difficult sections along the road to Roubaix, help can be a long time coming if a rider needs a new wheel. Talking to VeloHuman at the team presentation, Heinrich Haussler noted: “The whole race, you get a flat tire in the wrong spot, you might as well just jump in the car.”

The Contenders

Few races reward pure strength the way Paris-Roubaix does, with its practically pancake-flat parcours and its bruising cobbled sectors that favor those riders with a bit of weight to keep them from bouncing around on the difficult road surface. Simply put, it’s a race that strongly favors the powerful cobbled specialists, especially those with good bike handling skills.

Etixx-QuickStep is bursting at the seams with Classics specialists, and yet they still have not come away with a top-level win on the cobbles this year. This is their last chance, but they will have a great opportunity to make things right here. Niki Terpstra is the defending champion, and the Dutch 30-year-old has shown strong form throughout the spring races in 2015. His 2nd in the Tour of Flanders proved his excellent fitness right now, and given his elite soloing talent, he makes for a great card to play for EQS here. Zdenek Stybar, though, might be the prime pick for the Belgian superteam. His combination of bike handling skills, endurance, and a nice finishing kick are perfect for this race, and he’s come close here in the past. The tooth problems that plagued him in Flanders have been fixed, and he’s shown great form this season. Stijn Vandenbergh is another very strong option for the team. QuickStep can send one rider after another off the front here and that puts them in prime position to finally come away with a win in the top Classics.

Alexander Kristoff comes in as the big name on everyone’s minds after his stunning Flanders win. Roubaix has not been a great race for him in the past but with the form he has shown lately and his incredible skillset, there’s no reason why this shouldn’t be another opportunity for him to win a big event. However, it won’t be easy for Katusha to corral what are likely to be constant attacks from Kristoff’s rivals (even with a very strong Luca Paolini on the team), and favorite status won’t help Kristoff either. Knowing how fast he will be in the velodrome, every other rival in this race will look to leave Kristoff behind at any opportunity, and that will make things pretty difficult for the Norwegian. He’s obviously a very dangerous rider, but pulling off a Flanders-Roubaix double would be an enormous feat.

John Degenkolb is the other “sprinter” near the top of the favorites discussion right now. Runner-up in 2014, he’s one of the few who might be able to beat Kristoff in a sprint, and he mentioned his and his team’s very high levels of confidence multiple times at the team presentation in Compiégne, saying that he has no fear if the race comes down to a sprint battle with Kristoff in the velodrome. He’s obviously strong this year after winning Milano-Sanremo, but his results in the other Cobbled Classics haven’t quite been as expected. Still, he’s already shown how well he can ride in this race, and even though he just won a Monument Classic last month, Kristoff’s recent success has taken all of the spotlight perhaps allowing him to enjoy a bit of under-the-radar status.

Bradley Wiggins rode to 9th here last year with practically no cobbled racing prep, and this year he’s got his sights set completely on a Roubaix win to close out his Team Sky career. In a race where time trialists often thrive, Wiggins has the requisite power for a big result. The question is whether he has the handling skills and the Classics savvy—many ridres spend years gaining experience here, gradually chipping away at results. Wiggins has been incredibly successful in his career when he has put his mind to even a very difficult goal, but this is asking a lot. He also doesn’t have much of a finishing kick, meaning that he’ll basically need to drop all of his rivals. He has a shot, but it won’t be easy. Geraint Thomas, on blazing form this Classics season, has done well here in the past and should do well again. Ian Stannard and Luke Rowe are nice alternatives for Sky.

Sep Vanmarcke was the runner-up in 2013, missing out on the victory because he couldn’t outsprint Fabian Cancellara in the velodrome. To me, he seems much quicker at the line these days, but he’s been lacking something in the Cobbled Classics this year. He can handle the cobbles more adeptly than almost anyone in the sport and that makes him deadly here but, simply put, he’ll need to better here than he was in Flanders.

Greg Van Avermaet has not had the success here that he’s had in other cobbled races but his speedy finishing kick and excellent team (with strong Daniel Oss as a second) makes him dangerous. Peter Sagan only notched his first Top 10 here last year, but his Classics prep this season has left him looking more powerful and perhaps better suited to this race than he was in the past. More under-the-radar than usual after weeks of missing out on big results, he could benefit from a rare lack of eyes pointed in his direction.

Lotto Soudal has a three-pronged attack with Jürgen Roelandts, Tiesj Benoot, and the surprising André Greipel. Similarly, IAM Cycling has the trio of Sylvain Chavanel, Heinrich Haussler, and the surprising Martin Elmiger—Haussler told VH that Elmiger said prior to Flanders that he is in the form of his life, and he proved it at the Ronde. That could come in handy in this race where having multiple strong teammates in crucial. Astana’s Lars Boom has looked strong this year and this race suits his cyclocross background and time trialing prowess. Cannondale’s Sebastian Langeveld, Lampre’s Filippo Pozzato, FDJ’s Arnaud Démare, Trek’s Stijn Devolder, and OGE’s Jens Keukeleire are on the list of outsiders with a shot in Paris-Roubaix.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Zdenek Stybar
Podium: Bradley Wiggins, Alexander Kristoff
Other Top Contenders: Niki Terpstra, Sep Vanmarcke, Peter Sagan, John Degenkolb, Geraint Thomas, Greg Van Avermaet, Stijn Vandenbergh

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis (from the roadside) of Paris-Roubaix 2015.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Brendan Ryan.

April 11, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: Paris-Roubaix 2015 Pre-race Show

Episode 8: Paris-Roubaix 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride gears up for Paris-Roubaix, the “Hell of the North,” taking a look at the history of the race, this year’s parcours, and the many riders who could make things interesting on Sunday.
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Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm cover the many storylines of Paris-Roubaix in the latest episode of the Recon Ride, which also features interview audio from Bradley Wiggins, Geraint Thomas, and Tyler Farrar.

Photo by Christian Bille.

April 10, 2015
World Championships 2014: Individual Time Trial Preview

Most major time trials take place in the middle of stage races, when riders have already put a lot of mileage into their legs and may be facing more in the days that follow. The Worlds ITT, however, takes away those complicating factors and allows the chrono specialists to face a standalone challenge. The time trial is often known as the “race of truth,” and it’s hard to imagine a more honest indicator of talent against the clock than this yearly battle for the rainbow stripes.

The Route

47.1 kilometers in total, the men’s elite time trial parcours begins with a long stretch of mostly flat roads, on which the riders will be able to hit very high speeds. Then, around 15 kilometers before the finish line, the road kicks upward for the first of the day’s two main climbs. It’s an irregular ascent, but at no point is it overly challenging. The descent that follows, however, is a difficult one. At around the 40 kilometer mark the road kicks upward again for a shorter but steeper climb. Then comes a speedy descent and a flat final few kilometers.

The 2013 route was considerably longer (57.9 kilometers instead of 47.1), but this year’s edition does include a few uphill tests that, while not overly demanding, could make a difference in the day’s outcome.

The Contenders

Defending champion Tony Martin is the heavy favorite here. It would be a surprise if anyone were to take the victory ahead of the German, who is on the hunt for his fourth consecutive title. The late bumps shouldn’t trouble him too much, and he’s an expert bike handler for the downhill stretches on the route. He may be just a bit off his best form right now, but his Vuelta ITT victory was evidence enough that he is in good shape, and that may be all he needs. He was 46 seconds ahead of the runner-up in 2013, and has been dominant once again this year.

Martin’s biggest challenge is likely to come from the aforementioned 2013 runner-up, Bradley Wiggins. Wiggins has been enigmatic on the road this year; he occasionally flashed his brilliant ability (winning chronos in the Tour of California and the Tour of Britain, along with his own National Championship ITT), but on the whole he simply didn’t ride in all that many races in 2014. He appears to be riding well right now, and he should be able to handle the late climbs better than most of the time trialing specialists in Ponferrada. It is harder than ever to predict which races Bradley Wiggins is motivated to contest these days, but with a chance to make a statement in the twilight of his career on the road, I expect him to go full gas here.

Tom Dumoulin of the Netherlands racked up an amazing string of 2nd place finishes this year. He’s one of the world’s best in the time trial, but he unfortuantely had a great deal of scheduling overlap with the rainbow jersey wearer in 2014, and that led to countless runner-up rides. Still, he is in good shape right now and he will be eager for one last shot at victory over Tony Martin. This a nice enough parcours for Dumoulin, who is a capable climber. He has an excellent opportunity to get onto the podium, especially with last year’s 3rd place finisher Fabian Cancellara skipping the Worlds ITT this year.

Vasil Kiryienka has had some excellent results late this season and he can handle this profile. He may spend most of his time playing second fiddle to Sky’s GC stars, but he’ll be a dangerous outsider here. Adriano Malori of Italy is a massive time trial talent on sharp form, but the final two climbs will make it difficult for him to challenge for victory. Still, expect a strong performance. Rohan Dennis took some time to round into form during the Vuelta but he seems to be getting there now, and this is a nice parcours for him. Tobias Ludviggson is a rider whose talent exceeds his results this season; he has had trouble avoiding misfortune (rain and crashes, specifically) in many of his chronos in 2014, but if he can stay out of trouble he has a lot of power.

Tejay van Garderen, Rasmus Quaade, Alex Dowsett, Kristof Vandewalle, Jesse Sergent, Sylvain Chavanel, Jonathan Castroviejo, and Jan Barta are others on the list of fringe contenders who will hope to be in the mix.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Tony Martin
Podium: Bradley Wiggins, Tom Dumoulin
Other Top Contenders: Vasil Kiryienka, Tobias Ludviggson, Adriano Malori, Rohan Dennis, Tejay van Garderen, Rasmus Quaade, Kristof Vandewalle

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live analysis during the race, and stay tuned for the Worlds Road Race preview, coming very soon!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Andrew Sides.

September 23, 2014
Tour de Suisse 2014 Preview

As the Criterium du Dauphine is heading towards its conclusion, the second major Tour de France tuneup race kicks off Saturday: the Tour de Suisse. Much like its French cousin, the Suisse features a diverse array of challenges, with time trials, sprinters’ days, hilly stages, and mountaintop finishes. The good mix of profiles draws an impressive startlist of riders, many of whom are using the nine-day event to perfect their form leading into July’s main event.

While the biggest GC names of the Tour de France have preferred to use the Dauphine as their warmup of choice in recent years, the Suisse has drawn some major protagonists as well. Current rainbow jersey wearer Rui Costa is the defending champion; he followed up on his 2013 Suisse with a pair of stage wins in the Tour. Meanwhile, Peter Sagan has won the Points Classification of the Tour de Suisse prior to both of his Green Jerseys in the Tour de France. Costa and Sagan are on a long list of returning riders likely to feature again. As a note: most of the big names on the provisional startlist look set to go, but the official startlist is not completely finalized at this point, so keep an eye out for late additions and subtractions.

The Route

The 78th Tour de Suisse begins with a 9.4 kilometer time trial. While short, it involves a tough climb and a tricky descent, so it’s not going to be as simple or as speedy as last year’s mostly flat out-and-back prologue. Stage 2 has some tough climbs (two HC-rated mountains and then a Cat. 2) in the middle of the day, followed by a late Category 2, but a downhill and then flat final 21 kilometers could limit GC action. The third stage has some bumps along the way and an uncategorized uphill finish. Stage 4 and Stage 5 are mostly flat days likely for the sprinters.

Stage 9: Martigny › Saas-Fee (156.5 km) – A challenging climb closes out the final stage of the Tour de Suisse, ensuring that the GC battle will go all the way down to the wire.

Stage 6 has a late climb that could inspire punchy riders to make moves. A 24.7 kilometer time trial on Stage 7 will have major GC implications. It does have a few bumps to offer some consolation to the pure climbers, but it’s a far cry from the hill climb chrono that finished the 2013 TdS. The uphill specialists will look forward to the following two days. A Hors Categorie ascent to Verbier closes out Stage 8. Stage 9 will guarantee an open fight for GC to the final meters of the Tour de Suisse: it’s a short one at 156.5 km, but the profile will challenge the peloton with a Cat. 1, a Cat. 2, another Cat. 1, and then an HC-rated summit finish where the Tour de Suisse will crown its overall victor.

The General Classification Contenders

Lampre’s Rui Costa has won the past two editions of the Tour de Suisse. This is a race that he knows how to win, and a stage on which he loves to shine. His very versatile array of skills (climbing legs, a fair bit of punch, and an underrated time trial) are well-suited to varied profiles of the weeklong event. He showed excellent form this year in Switzerland’s other major stage race, the Tour de Romandie, where he was 3rd behind Chris Froome and Simon Spilak. Riding as his team’s main option in the upcoming Tour de France for the first time, Costa will be eager to put his talents on display. He will also be eager to pick up his first win in the rainbow jersey, and this may be his best chance all year.

Belkin’s Bauke Mollema was runner-up and a stage winner in 2013 and he will be hunting continued success this year. He, too, sports a very strong combination of talents that will keep him comfortable in both the hills and the high mountains of the race. Belkin sends an excellent squad to support his amibitions, with climbing expert Laurens Ten Dam to play the role of second. Mollema has all the tools to contend for the overall victory in the 2014 Tour de Suisse.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Roman Kreuziger rounded out the 2013 podium (and he actually won this race back in 2008) and he will again have a shot at a good result this year. Kreuziger is Alberto Contador’s top lieutenant in the Tour de France, but at the TdS he has the chance to ride for his own ambitions, and he will be an excellent bet to achieve his goals, given his well-rounded skillset. Kreuziger had a hot start to the year but has not raced in over a month; however, with Tinkoff-Saxo’s main target approaching, he should be getting back up to top form now.

Sky’s Bradley Wiggins will certainly bring excitement to the race, especially coming off a Tour of California victory, but it’s hard to know what to expect from him. He worked himself down to a GC-oriented weight for his AToC bid, but now that he does not plan on riding in La Grand Boucle, he may refocus his approach to prep himself for time trialing and track goals to come. Obviously, with the motivation and focus, Wiggins is a major contender, but there are enough question marks that I don’t see him as the top favorite he is capable of being. Teammate Dario Cataldo couldn’t quite come away with a victory in the Giro d’Italia but he looked great throughout that race and could feature as a fringe contender with two time trials on the route. It is worth noting that Sky is also sending Sergio Henao to the Tour de Suisse, his first race since an extended break from competition.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot should be able to land himself another good result (he was 4th last year). He has shown an improved time trial this year, outperforming expectations in Pais Vasco and Romandie, and the ability to limit his losses in a discipline that troubled him in the past will be critical with this route. IAM Cycling’s Mathias Frank (5th in 2013) is another rider I expect to see at the very top. He, too, has displayed a more balanced approach in 2014, and he has a knack for success in races that take place in his home nation. He led the 2013 Tour de Suisse into the final day, but ultimately fell several placings with a lackluster performance on the last stage, a hill climb ITT. With that on his mind, and now the sole leader on a new team, Frank is likely to be a major protagonist.

BMC’s Cadel Evans and AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo are both only a few days removed from the Giro d’Italia. Wilco Kelderman has shown in the Dauphine that it’s possible to carry that Grand Tour form even into the middle of June, but it won’t be easy. Evans was fading as the Giro drew to a close, so it will be a big ask for him to continue to perform at a high level here. Pozzovivo battled illness in the Giro’s final week, but he maintained his strong performance through the last days of the race, and he may have more in the tank. Christophe Riblon makes for another excellent option for AG2R. The climbing expert (and Alpe d’Huez winner) showed an improved time trial in last year’s Tour de Pologne, and he’ll be motivated to perform leading into the Tour de France. Carlos Betancur was supposed to ride this race, but recent news suggests that he is skipping the Suisse, and possibly even the Tour de France.

Movistar’s Ion Izagirre is a vastly underrated GC performer who has flashed strong chrono chops to complement his excellent climbing skills recently. Rarely given the opportunity to ride for his own ambitions, he will have a nice shot at success here. Eros Cappechi is one of a number of strong teammates. Garmin is another very strong all-round squad led by riders who often play lieutenant roles. Rohan Dennis was 2nd only to Bradley Wiggins in the Tour of California. His time trialing prowess is well-known, but he has worked to better himself on the slopes in 2014 and it has really paid off. Teammates Janier Acevedo is a pure climber who will look to light up the late mountain stages, and Tom Danielson may feature in a similar role.

Giant-Shimano’s trio of Warren Barguil, Lawson Craddock, and Tom Dumoulin pack a particularly strong punch. Barguil has the climbing saavy to survive the late climbs. Craddock and Dumoulin are both excellent all-rounders who will look to jump to an early advantage in the time trial. Tony Martin of OPQS will likely be well-placed after that opening chrono as well, and he has decent climbing legs to boot. It wouldn’t be particularly surprising to see him hunting a GC result. Trek’s Schleck brother duo will hope to pick up a decent result; Frank has had something of a resurgence this year. Lotto Belisol’s Maxime Monfort, strong in the time trial, could put up a nice performance. MTN-Qhubeka’s Louis Meintjes is a fast-rising, versatile rider who is just coming into his own. His team may surprise some—they have a lot of talent for a variety of scenarios, and Meintjes can hang with the big guns when the road goes up (he was 5th at the Giro del Trentino in April). Orica-GreenEdge’s Johan Chaves is another outsider with a chance for success: he delivered a beautiful Tour of California stage win last month and he will look to make a late move up the GC leaderboard on the HC-rated climbs of the last two stages.

The Stagehunters

A number of elite stagehungers make the start from Bellinzona. Peter Sagan was brilliant in the 2013 edition, shocking everyone by nabbing a victory after surviving a particularly mountainous Stage 3 that even dropped most of the GC contenders, and he will try to defend his Points title in 2014. It won’t be easy. Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb, supported by excellent-sprinter-in-his-own-right Luka Mezgec, is on fire in 2014 and has shown an ability to handle some of the tougher peloton-whittling climbs that Sagan also prefers.

Unfortunately for both of them, they’ll have to contend with Mark Cavendish and his elite OPQS leadout squad on the flatter days. Tom Boonen is here for Omega Pharma as well: they mean business in this race. Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff is another sprinter hoping to make an impression, and for once, he’ll actually have an entire team dedicated to his ambitions in a stage race. He took a stage last year and will be hungry for more. Sky’s Ben Swift gets another chance to shine this season, and he look for the harder days as opportunities to win from a reduced bunch. Lampre’s Sacha Modolo got off to a hot start in 2014 and could find himself returning to success here. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard is a brilliant young talent who could feature. MTN-Qhubeka’s Gerald Ciolek, Movistar’s JJ Rojas and JJ Lobato, Astana’s Andrea Guardini, Trek’s Danny van Poppel, AG2R’s Davide Appollonio, OGE’s Matt Goss, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s in-form Matti Breschel and Michael Morkov are other likely sprint protagonists.

For the very hilly days, look out for Garmin’s Tom Jelte-Slagter, Lotto’s Jelle Vanendert, and OGE’s Michael Albasini, who lit up the Tour de Romandie, to try to take on the GC riders for stage supremacy. Don’t be surprised to see classics powerhouses like Belkin’s Sep Vanmarcke, OPQS’s Niki Terpstra and Stijn Vandenbergh, and Trek’s Stijn Devolder and, of course, Fabian Cancellara looking for long distance victories either. Cancellara will also headline (along with Bradley Wiggins and Tony Martin) an elite field of chrono riders for the race’s two stages against the clock. Movistar’s Alex Dowsett and AG2R’s Patrick Gretsch are specialists who will hope to contend with that trio, as well as a number of other aforementioned strong ITT riders, for prestigious wins against elite competition.

VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites

Winner: Rui Costa
Podium: Bauke Mollema, Roman Kreuziger
Other Top Contenders: Thibaut Pinot, Mathias Frank, Ion Izagirre, Bradley Wiggins, Rohan Dennis, Domenico Pozzovivo, Laurens Ten Dam

I will not be doing daily stage previews here, but follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for stage picks and commentary. And check back soon for some very exciting things to come: Q&As with some of the sport’s up-and-coming young stars and plenty of Tour de France coverage are right around the corner.

-Dane Cash

Photos by F. Gopp and youkeys.

June 12, 2014
Paris-Roubaix 2014 Preview

The incomparable Paris-Roubaix runs for the 111th time this Sunday. The legendary race is a celebration of days long past, a relic that offers dangers and challenges unseen elsewhere in most of today’s other major contests. The trip is mostly a flat affair, but the rough cobbles, patches of mud, whirling dust clouds, fanatical spectators, and excessive length provide difficulties that no profile could display. Constant attacks at every juncture force splits and selections and require acute awareness at all times. A moment of lost concentration can also mean going down hard on the unforgiving surface. Experience navigating the difficulties and an extremely high tolerance for the bone-rattling pain of irregular roads are crucial at Paris-Roubaix.

51.1 total kilometers of cobbles lie along the 256 kilometer road from Compiegne to Roubaix. Some of those sections are in better shape in others, and each is given a rating (between one and five). The more difficult sections are often the site of attacks, with the race’s three five-star cobbled sections quite likely to force selection. First among them, the wooded Arenberg Trench greets the peloton (or what remains by that point) after 161 kilometers. The 2.4 kilometer stretch is extremely rough, and after what might constitute a whole day’s racing in a stage race, the abuse of riding over uneven stones takes its toll. The Mons-en-Pévèle is the next five-star section, 3 kilometers long with some sharp turns and generally a lot of mud, beginning around kilometer 208. Tom Boonen’s awesome long-distance strike in 2012 was launched just before this section was reached; even if it doesn’t launch the winning attack this year, it will still be sure to jettison a few riders from the pack. A few more easily rated sections follow the muddy stretch before the five-star Le Carrefour de l’Arbre is reached, the legendary 2.1 kilometers of uneven pave that must be overcome only 17 km before the finish line. It’s hard to drop anyone after this point, so if the race isn’t split up by the time the riders reach the Carrefour, expect fireworks from the riders hoping to avoid a sprint in the iconic Roubaix velodrome.

Contenders for the Cobblestone Trophy

Trek’s Fabian Cancellara comes into Sunday’s race looking to pick up his fourth cobblestone trophy (which is literally a cobblestone), and he enters the race as a big favorite thanks to both his resume in the classics generally and recent displays of current form. The four-time ITT world champion has one of the biggest engine’s in the sport, making it nearly impossible to drop him. Holding his wheel is an immense struggle on this terrain. But any riders capable of hanging on then must beat him in a sprint, which he has shown quite an aptitude in recently. He won last year’s edition by outsprinting Sep Vanmarcke after the two of them bridged a gap to Zdenek Stybar and Stijn Vandenbergh up the road, watched both of those riders run into spectators, and then continued on by themselves. This year, the sprinting ability that won him last year’s P-R carried him to 2nd place in Milano-Sanremo in March, and it put him atop the podium of his third Tour of Flanders last week when he made it into the winning attack and won a sprint to the line. Defeating Fabian Cancellara will be a very tall order for the other contenders in this race: he has the perfect combination of current form, ability, and experience to win this race. Stijn Devolder is still uncertain for this race after a crash filled Flanders, but if he’s here, he’s a great second.

Tom Boonen has won Paris-Roubaix even more times than Cancellara; his 2012 victory after more than 50 kilometers riding solo is the stuff of legend. Various maladies kept him from contesting in 2013, but numerous results this year have shown that he has recaptured some form. Still, he has not quite returned to the level of two years past, and injury and personal misfortunes have made 2014 a difficult year; he was unable to hang with Cancellara in the Ronde. Paris-Roubaix is a different race, without the climbs of Flanders, and it may suit Boonen a bit more against the seemingly unstoppable Cancellara. What’s more, while his ability to put up sustained power numbers might be somewhat reduced, he still looks quite handy in a sprint, and he learned years ago that the best tactic against Cancellara is to remain glued on that wheel and hope for a sprint. He will also have plenty of help from star-studded Omega Pharma-Quick Step. Niki Terpstra has been a very active and very successful rider this spring, following up a 2nd place at E3 Harelbeke with a 6th place at the Tour of Flanders. He was 3rd in last year’s Paris-Roubaix, the next rider to cross the line after the Cancellara/Vanmarcke duo. Terpstra is a keen opportunist and an excellent soloist, and as one of a number of options on his team, he could benefit if the pack hesitates to follow. Zdenek Stybar was strong enough to still manage an 8th place despite running into a spectator last year. He hasn’t made as big an impression on this classics season as I initially expected, but he does have plenty of form and the bike handling skills of a cyclocross world champion. He also has a quick finish. 29 year-old teammate Stijn Vandernbergh was the other major spectator casualty of 2013, but he enters this year’s edition again on stellar form, having come in 4th in both the Ronde and E3 Harelbeke. He does not have the fastest sprint but he’s very aggressive and at the very least, he’s almost certain to try something on the tough cobbled sections.

The top challenger taking on favorite Cancellara and super-team OPQS is last year’s runner-up Sep Vanmarcke. Just 25, the Belkin rider has already been on the podiums of Gent-Wevelgem, the Tour of Flanders, and obviously Paris-Roubaix, each time showing good cycling acumen for planning the successful attacks and the engine to make them. Unfortunately, on all three of those occassions, his fellow attackers outsprinted him to the finish line. In 2014, he has been in the top 5 of all three WorldTour cobbled races, as well as other big spring contests Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne and Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. His biggest challenge will be creating a real gap between other contenders, as a sprint finish simply will not do for him. I think he is one of the very few riders with a chance at getting ahead of Cancellara, and he will certainly give that venture a shot on Sunday. It’s a big ask, but one thing is for sure: he is an excellent bet to be on at least one of the three steps on the podium. Lars Boom is a very high quality support rider.

Paris-Roubaix is a truly unique bike race, unlike any other in the grueling tests through which it parts participants. It is also unlike most of the other bike races that Peter Sagan, versatile as he is, has won in his life. Sagan did not ride this race last year. His 2011 attempt landed him 86th. The long, brutal days have challenged Sagan in his young career, and the flat parcours gives him fewer opportunities to gap the bigger riders. Still, counting out Peter Sagan is always a mistake. He already has a pair of fine wins on the WorldTour level, in Tirreno-Adriatico and at E3 Harelbeke, thanks to his good form in 2014. Winning a Monument is his central goal right now, and I think he will give this race 100%. He obviously has the sprint to beat most challengers if he makes it to the finish, and he’s an expert bike handler for the difficult cobbled stretches. Whether he can survive the carnage of attacks is the real question. I don’t think he will match Cancellara in Paris-Roubaix, but I don’t think it’s an impossible ask either.

Milano-Sanremo winner Alexander Kristoff added to his remarkable track record in recent Monuments last weekend when he came in 5th in the Ronde, rolling across the line by himself after a failed but spirited attempt to bridge to Cancellara’s group. The Katusha rider has a special talent for sprinting after hard days in the saddle, and few are harder than Paris-Roubaix. Furthermore, P-R doesn’t have the climbers of Flanders, which will play into his hands, as he is not an expert climber. 9th in 2013, Kristoff looks even better this year and more likely to hang on during the attacks or even make his own attempts to bridge if necessary. Of the favorites, he has one of the fastest sprints. If he’s there at the finish, it’s hard to see him not winning the cobblestone trophy. As usual, Luca Paolini makes a great second. Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb is the other big name sprinter who might be considered to at least have a shot at being there in the finish. He held on as long as he could in Flanders but was ultimately dropped on the final climbs on the race. It won’t be much easier in Paris-Roubaix, but the Gent-Wevelgem winner is on awesome form and on a good day and with some luck, making the final selection is not out of the question. If he can hold the right wheel to the end of the race, he’s one of the fastest finishers on the start list.

BMC sends a powerful duo to the race in Taylor Phinney and Flanders runner-up Greg Van Avermaet. Phinney attacked early in 2013 but was unable to hold an advantage. He was twice winner of the U-23 edition of the race. The track star turned time trial specialist has a giant engine and he is handy in a sprint finish. He excels on the long flat days. Last week in Flanders he did an excellent job staying up the road for quite a while to keep the pressure of Greg Van Avermaet; Paris-Roubaix is definitely his style, and BMC will look to set him up for a strike more aimed at overall success here. Said teammate Van Avermaet is an excellent option as well, having ridden to 4th here in 2013. He looks in great shape in 2014, placing highly in a number of races even if he hasn’t managed to come up with the victories he has sought. Fewer hills give him fewer opportunities to show off his quality climbing abilities, but this is a race that rewards aggressive riders, and Van Avermaet fits that bill. In years past, Thor Hushovd challenged for the win here a few times, coming as close as 2nd place in 2010; he’s a bit past those golden years now, but the tough former World Champ deserves a namecheck at least. BMC has the talent to challenge the big favorites in this race.

Team Sky also sends a good squad, with Edvald Boasson Hagen and Bradley Wiggins the featured riders for the contest. Boasson Hagen has been riding very well lately, mostly in support, and his time trialing skills and top-notch finishing kick could land him in a great position in Paris-Roubaix. Meanwhile, Bradley Wiggins decided that he would ride the cobbles of Paris-Roubaix this year, and though he does not really have a history of success in this race, he looked pretty good at last week’s Ronde van Vlaanderen. He’s not among the favorites, but he has shown an exceptional ability to succeed when he sets his mind to goals most would deem overly ambitious. Moreover, this is a race that can be won by an elite time trialist, and Bradley Wiggins is among the best in recent memory in that discipline. Geraint Thomas is supposedly riding this race in support of his teammates, but if for some reason he finds himself in position to make a move, he’s a very tough rider built for the days like these; his biggest knock is his propensity to crash, and Paris-Roubaix is nothing if not treacherous.

Back in 2009, Filippo Pozzato managed to finish 2nd to Tom Boonen in Paris-Roubaix. He was also the victor at E3 that year, and 5th in Flanders. Things haven’t really gone the way the Lampre rider would have hoped in recent years, and he is yet to have much success this year, but he did finish with Degenkolb, Sagan, and Stybar in the small group chasing the attackers up the road in Flanders last week. Teammate Sacha Modolo seems unlikely to be there after such a tough day, but he’s one of best sprinters in the race if that somehow happens.

Longer shots looking to animate the race include Wanty Groupe – Gobert’s Bjorn Leukemans (9th in De Ronde this year, and 4th at P-R in 2007), Garmin’s Sebastian Langeveld (10th in De Ronde this year, and 7th at P-R in 2013) and Johan Vansummeren (involved in a serious crash with a spectator, he had a rough Flanders this year, but he did win Paris-Roubaix in 2011 and has a host of other top 10s to his name), and AG2R’s Sebastien Turgot (a surprise 2nd place here in 2012) and Damien Gaudin. Long shots to somehow hang with the proven hardmen and sprint it out include FDJ’s Arnaud Demare (who looks very fast this season but who has not been able to survive the tough days to make it to the finish), Garmin’s Tyler Farrar, Movistar’s JJ Lobato, IAM’s Heinrich Haussler, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati.

No exhaustive preview can account for every possibility in a crazy race like Paris-Roubaix. A puncture or crash could instantly ruin the hopes of any of the big favorites and open the contest for new contenders. Still, through all the uncertainty, this race has been dominated by a select group of riders in the past several years; as difficult as it is to win Paris-Roubaix, and as large a role as chance can play over miles and miles of cobbles, seven of the last nine editions have seen either Tom Boonen or Fabian Cancellara victorious. Sunday will offer a great showdown between both of these heavyweights, and also between the now old guard they represent and the rising stars of Vanmarcke, Sagan, Kristoff and others.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Fabian Cancellara
Podium: Sep Vanmarcke, Tom Boonen
Other Top Contenders: Alexander Kristoff, Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, Taylor Phinney, Peter Sagan, Greg Van Avermaet, Edvald Boasson Hagen

VeloHuman recently joined the Twitterverse! Follow @VeloHuman for more analysis and commentary during the race, and be sure to come back soon for post-race thoughts and previews of Amstel Gold, La Fleche Wallonne, and the fourth monument of the year, Liege-Bastogne-Liege.

-Dane Cash

Photos by Olivier Moindroit and Christophe Duhem.

April 10, 2014
UCI World Championship Individual Time Trial 2013 Preview

A World-class Race of Truth

After a year on Tony Martin’s back, the rainbow jersey of the time trialing world champ is up for grabs again in Florence. But what a year it’s been for the German, who won eight time trials across the stage races he’s taken on (including a win ahead of Chris Froome in the Mont St. Michel chrono in the Tour de France). Following so much success, Tony Martin will look defend his title, but competition will be fierce from a select few rivals: I see Martin as one of four riders with the potential to take the victory in 2013. The other three are Fabian Cancellara, Bradley Wiggins, and Taylor Phinney.

It’s close, but if I had to pick I’d favor Martin to repeat. He’s just shown an ability on another level this year, and this course suits him well: not much to speak of in the way of hills, just 50 kilometers of road for him to dominate with his otherworldly endurance. This weekend, he led Omega Pharma – Quick Step to a repeat world title in the TTT, and he’s had a year full of success. Really, the only chronos he’s lost have been prologue length or lumpy: most notably, Stage 11 in the Vuelta a Espana, which he lost to Fabian Cancellara by 37. It was a 38.8km affair with a categorized climb in the middle, which favored the Swiss star, and there will be no such complications in Florence.

Still, Cancellara is a four time world champ in this discipline coming off a two-Monument-winning year. He was on fire in the spring, and he rounded nicely back into form for his run-up to this race, winning the ITT in the Tour of Austria and, as has already been noted, in the Vuelta, where he also came close to a few non TT stage wins. He might prefer a hill or two (to put Martin and Phinney off their games), but he’s definitely got a lot of form right now.

Cancellara was smoked, however, in the recent Tour de Pologne time trial… by a resurgent Bradley Wiggins (Phinney took third in that event). Wiggins shook up his schedule this year to take on the Giro, where he put in a very strong ITT performance on stage 8. He probably would have won that stage had he not sprung a flat tire during his run; as it stood he was only 10 seconds behind the leader, Alex Dowsett. After withdrawing from the Giro, he went dark for a while, before showing up to dominate the ITT in Poland. It wasn’t a flat course, and Florence is, but the way Wiggins blew away the competition there inspires confidence in his ability right now, and he’s shown in his career that when he puts his mind to a goal, it’s hard to deny him. He comes into the World Champs having just won the Tour of Britain on the back of his ITT stage win.

Despite barely missing out on the rainbow jersey in last year’s WC ITT (he was a mere 6 seconds behind Martin) Taylor Phinney has little data to give us in terms of his TTing form: he’s only done three ITTs this year, and one of them he attempted while not-healthy (during the Giro, for which he was ultimately a DNF). He’s something of a wildcard, but the course suits him very well: the former Individual Pursuit World Champ is a big rider (1.96 meters, 82 kg) with a massive engine, and he thrives on flat, track-like courses. He knows this one well. I don’t see his 6th place in the short, not-flat Eneco Tour ITT or his 3rd place in the lumpy ITT in Poland as clear signs of being off form: his fantastic Tour de Pologne victory displayed just how good he is at soloing on a flat right now.

It’s hard to see past any of these four names for the gold, or even for the podium, but the other contenders include Italy’s Adriano Malori (3rd last year), his compatriot Marco Pinotti, the UK’s Alex Dowsett, last year’s U23 silver medalist Rohan Dennis, fellow Australian Richie Porte, former World Champ Bert Grabsch, Belarus’s Vasil Kiryienka, France’s Sylvain Chavanel (who won an Eneco Tour ITT in which Wiggins and Phinney were somewhat disappointing), Belgian Thomas De Gendt, and Jonathan Castroviejo of Spain.

Whoever nabs the rainbow jersey tomorrow will have defeated some serious talent on the way, and will deserve the 365 days of glory that come with the victory.

VeloHuman Predictions

Winner

Tony Martin

Podium

Bradley Wiggins, Fabian Cancellara

Top 10

Taylor Phinney, Adriano Malori, Richie Porte, Vasil Kiryienka, Sylvain Chavanel, Rohan Dennis, Marco Pinotti

-Dane Cash

Photo by Goldene-Speichen.de.

September 25, 2013