VeloHuman

Tag: Breakaway

  • Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 13 Preview

    Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 13 Preview

    Stage 13 Profile

    Stage 13: Belorado › Obregón. Parque de Cabárceno – 152.2 km

    Following a very flat Stage 12 that, unsurprisingly, ended in a sprint (won by John Degenkolb), the Vuelta’s thirteenth stage will be a more unpredictable affair. The Stage 13 parcours is a tale of two halves. The opening 95 kilometers of racing take place on mostly flat, mostly straight roads. After the first intermediate sprint near the midpoint of the stage, however, the road begins to twist and turn through a stretch of tough hills. First on tap is a Cat. 3, with a fast descent to follow, and then another Cat. 3 and another fast descent, and then a tough Category 2 and yet another downhill. Even after the descent from the Cat. 2, it is still an undulating journey to the line, with a few uncategorized challenges yet to come. The finish is a lumpy affair: at 2.5 km to go, the road kicks up dramatically for a short but steep (a few sections push 10%) climb, which will be an attractive potential launching pad for the punchier riders. Then comes a series of short ups and downs before things flatten out for the final hundred meters of straightaway.

    The Stage 13 profile is one of the most breakaway-friendly in this race. Given the tough finish, the teams of the pure sprinters won’t be all that motivated to keep the early move in check, and even if the pack does try to maintain control of the day, the up-and-down, winding roads on the second half of the stage won’t make it easy. The opportunists, especially those with some punch or at least decent climbing legs and a nice finishing kick for the final straightaway, will be licking their lips at this opportunity to pick up a Grand Tour stage win.

    No single rider qualifies as the favorite in a stage like this, but there is a very long list of riders who could shine. BMC’s Philippe Gilbert is certainly one of them: the late rise is a perfect launching pad for the uphill charger, and he could look to get into the breakaway to contest the victory after a long day up the road. If Gilbert is in the lead group as the day nears its conclusion, whether that lead group is the main bunch or a small breakaway contingent, he’ll be hard to beat in the final few kilometers. His teammate Cadel Evans can’t be counted out either: with the climbing legs to handle the undulating profile and a nice finishing kick, and sitting more than 30 minutes behind on GC, Evans could try something from afar on Stage 13.

    Cannondale’s Peter Sagan is another strong finisher who isn’t afraid to get into the long-range moves. After starting the Vuelta in domestique mode while riding himself back into form, he’s now showing much more interest in battling for stage wins. He won’t be allowed into the day’s break without a fight, but if he is in the move he’ll be a top favorite; if he isn’t, and if things do come back together, he’ll be a top favorite in that scenario as well. His teammate Alessandro De Marchi is an elite breakaway specialist, and though he doesn’t have the same punchy style as Sagan, he is a tough rider who handles this sort of climbing particularly well. He has already taken one stage in this race. Oscar Gatto is yet another Cannondale rider with a chance to go for a long one here.

    Ryder Hesjedal is on the hunt for stage wins after falling out of GC contention in this Vuelta, and he does have a bit more explosiveness than many realize. He will be a top contender if he’s in the early break. Teammate Nathan Haas is very strong on a profile like this, and he knows how to play the breakaway game; he’s another good option for Garmin-Sharp.

    Luis Leon Sanchez has not been much of a factor in the higher-profile races this season, but Stage 13 does have a parcours that will suit him very nicely. A strong soloist who can climb and sprint quite well, he will be dangerous if he can get into the day’s breakaway. Caja Rural teammate Amets Txurruka is always dangerous on a lumpy profile as well.

    Trek has an impressive collection of riders who could be in the mix from afar in a hilly stage like this with Julian Arredondo, Bob Jungels, Fabio Felline, and Fabian Cancellara all potential protagonists here. Katusha’s Alexandr Kolobnev and Giampaolo Caruso, Lampre-Merida’s Damiano Cunego, OGE’s Adam Yates, Lotto Belisol’s Adam Hansen, Astana’s Alexey Lutsenko, and OPQS’s Pieter Serry and Tony Martin are others who will be well-suited to breakaway success on Stage 13.

    If the peloton does reel in the day’s breakaway before the finish line, a select few sprinters with good climbing legs and the more explosive GC riders will join the list of potential protagonists. In that scenario, Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge will be the top favorite, having put his impressive climbing form on display in his Stage 3 victory. Belkin’s Paul Martens might have a chance of holding on for a potential sprint. John Degenkolb of Giant-Shimano won’t have an easy time surviving the late climbs, but it’s not out of the question that he makes it to the last hundred meters of flat to contest a sprint. Garmin-Sharp’s Daniel Martin, Katusha’s Daniel Moreno and Joaquim Rodriguez, BMC’s Samuel Sanchez, Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde, Belkin’s Robert Gesink (who possesses an underrated finishing kick), Astana’s Fabio Aru, and race leader Alberto Contador of Tinkoff-Saxo will also be contenders if Stage 13 is contested by the main pack.

    VeloHuman Stage Favorites

    1. Philippe Gilbert | 2. Michael Matthews | 3. Peter Sagan

    Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 13, so stay tuned.

    -Dane Cash

  • Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 7 Preview

    Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 7 Preview

    Stage 7 Profile

    Stage 7: Alhendín › Alcaudete – 169 km

    Alejandro Valverde won a tough Stage 6 that saw the first serious GC action of the race, as several big names lost ground on the day’s final ascent. Stage 7 shouldn’t be as decisive for the General Classification, but it is a hilly one, packed with smaller climbs that, when taken all together, will exact a toll on the legs, even if the profile may not look particularly brutal from a categorized climb standpoint. The peloton will at least be allowed to ease into the bumpy parcours with about 30 kilometers of relatively flat roads to start the stage, but after that it’s an undulating journey basically all the way to the line, starting with the Cat. 3 Alto de Illora. With around 60 kilometers to go, the riders will reach the bottom of the Alto Ahillo climb, a long slog of 12.1 kilometers at a 4% average grade, and the Cat. 2 will likely find out some tired legs at this point in the day. On the way up, the riders will pass through finishing city of Alcaudete for the first time. From the top of the climb, though, it’s still nearly 50 kilometers to the end of the stage, a stretch that is, by and large, mostly downhill, at least until about the 15-km-to-go mark, when the road gently angles upward again. The incline becomes more pronounced toward the very end of the day, with the final 5 kilometers averaging roughly 4%. The uphill finish is not categorized in any way, but it’s certainly steep enough to bring the punchier specialists to the fore.

    The constantly up-and-down parcours of Stage 7, coupled with a finish that won’t be all that appetizing for the sprinters, will make this an enticing opportunity for the long-range opportunists. It will be difficult for the peloton to control the race with this profile, and motivation in the pack to do so may not be all that high, given the difficult finale. Still, it’s not a certainty that the escape will survive, thanks to an especially impressive list of quick men on this startlist who also have strong climbing legs; several teams do have riders who will find the possibility of a final uphill sprint to their liking, and if enough miss out on the break, the scales will tip in the favor of the pack.

    As is the case on most breakaway-friendly days, there is no real outright favorite. A few names stand out as possible protagonists, however. Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge is certainly one. The Stage 7 finish suits him perfectly, with the gradient to slow the other quick men. If his team can keep the breakaway in check over the undulating profile, Matthews will be the rider to beat at the end of the day.

    BMC’s Philippe Gilbert is another obvious candidate on this profile. In an uphill gallop, few are better, and he showed decent form placing 7th in Stage 5’s flatter finale. With the World Championships approaching, he is likely to get stronger and stronger as this race goes on.

    Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb would prefer a slightly less steep final kilometer, but he’s still a dangerous option on this stage if things stay together for a sprint. His team has several strong engines for this sort of profile to give him support throughout the day.

    As a team, Belkin has a lot of flexibility for this one, with several riders who could play joker to some more obvious candidates for stage honors. For one, Moreno Hofland is dangerous an uphill sprint. If he doesn’t make it to the line with the lead group, though, Paul Martens might, and the veteran German also has a quick finish. If things are too selective for both, GC man Wilco Kelderman packs a speedy kick of his own.

    The list of other fast finishers who could contend for Stage 7 if the break is reeled in includes Lloyd Mondory, Filippo Pozzato, Vicente Reyes, Daniele Bennati, Jasper Stuyven and Fabio Felline, Tom Boonen, Gerald Ciolek, and possibly even Nacer Bouhanni, who is climbing reasonably well in this Vuelta. GC riders like Alejandro Valverde, Dan Martin, Daniel Moreno, Cadel Evans, and Joaquim Rodriguez could be in the mix as well.

    Predicting who will try to win this stage from afar is quite difficult, but a few riders come to mind as potential contenders should they make it into a long-distance move. Alexandr Kolobnev will like the finish and he’s a rider who is capable of spending the day off the front. Luis Leon Sanchez has not featured too prominently in many big races lately, but this profile should suit his skillset and he could try to get into the day’s breakaway. Adam Hansen has shown an interest in getting out front in this Vuelta, and he should manage the climbs well. Tony Martin is a danger whenever the profile is friendly to solo artists. Peter Sagan has already tried to get into a break in this race, and this could be a day for him to try his legs again; Cannondale has Oscar Gatto and Damiano Caruso as well should Sagan not be up for this. Bob Jungels, Damiano Cunego, Anthony Roux, and Ronaldo Nocentini are just a few others who could have success on Stage 7 if they make it into a breakaway.

    VeloHuman Stage Favorites

    1. Michael Matthews | 2. Philippe Gilbert | 3. Alexandr Kolobnev

    Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 7, so stay tuned.