Tag: Cadel Evans

Tour Down Under 2015 Post-race Impressions: Australian Youth Movement Takes Charge

2015’s first WorldTour race is in the books, with Rohan Dennis emerging as the surprise winner of the Tour Down Under just ahead of a very strong Richie Porte. With plenty of great performances across the six days of racing, especially from up-and-coming talents, the TDU offered a few big takeaways to start the season.

Rising Stars Lead the Way

As mentioned in VeloHuman’s various pre-race publications, the Tour Down Under is often a coming-out-party for young and developing talents. This was especially true in 2015. Rohan Dennis was already a well-known rider in the pro peloton in 2014, but his Stage 3 victory in the 2015 TDU marked his first WorldTour win, and his overall victory made this an all-the-more impressive trip home for the 24-year-old Australian. Making Dennis’s emergence even more exciting was the generational battle within his own team: Cadel Evans entered the race as the nominal leader, but with a powerful (and quite surprising) attack in the final kilometer of Stage 3, Dennis muscled his way into the driver’s seat within the BMC ranks, and then held on to the overall lead. With a Tour of California mountain stage victory last year and now this win built on both climbing prowess and and explosive kick, Rohan Dennis has shown serious progression as a more complete rider recently.

But Dennis was not alone among the younger riders in the race: Steele Von Hoff, Juan Jose Lobato, and Wouter Wippert all beat out big names in the sprints to pick up their first WorldTour-level wins, and Jack Bobridge picked up his second (along the way to the King of the Mountains jersey to boot) by escaping those fast men in the opening stage. There were plenty of familiar faces near the head of affairs in the 2015 Tour Down Under, but the young guns showed up in force and put on the show. Niccolo Bonifazio, Ruben Fernandez, and George Bennett were other members of the up-and-coming crowd to make emphatic statements in this race, while 24-year-old Tom Dumoulin, 4th overall, continued what has been an impressive growth pattern over the past few years, climbing (and sprinting for bonus seconds) at a very high level all week. 3rd in the Worlds ITT last year, Dumoulin is clearly a lot more than just a time trial specialist, and the future is very bright for the Dutch all-rounder.

Bonus Seconds Decisive Again

For yet another year, bonus seconds decided the race, for better or worse, depending on your opinion of bonus seconds. For yet another year, the winner on Willunga Hill did not achieve enough of a gap to overcome the time bonuses picked up by a GC rival in prior stages; in fact, that makes two straight years for Richie Porte. Porte came into this race on excellent form and proved it in the final stage, but it was not enough to offset his deficit in the bonus seconds game. For having been in this exact position before, Sky’s tactics were questionable throughout the race: they did a whole lot of work on the front of the pack in the earlier stages, which only made it easier for rivals like Dennis, Evans, and Daryl Impey to get bonus seconds, and then in the queen stage at Willunga Hill, Porte waited until roughly the final kilometer to launch his devastating attack. He blew everyone off his wheel with sheer strength and won the day, but it was clear when Dennis rolled across the line nine seconds later that Porte had left it too late. Expecting to take enough seconds to close the entirety of his gap in the final kilometer of a not-all-that-steep climb proved tactically costly, and Porte paid for it; Dennis even thanked him for going so late in his post-race interview. In short, time bonuses don’t simply add an extra layer of excitement to this race; they have been critical to victory here time and time again, and Dennis showed once more in 2015 that potential race-winners would be wise to build their TDU gameplans with the battle for bonus seconds in mind.

Australians Dominate the Race

For the fourth time in five years, the Tour Down Under was won by an Australian rider. For the first time in several years, the podium was swept by Australians. Four of the six stage winners were also Australian, and a fifth rides for an Australian Pro Continental Team. On the one hand, and at first glance, perhaps the proper response is simply to be impressed at the consistent performances of home riders in this race. Plenty of international riders made the start, but Australian veterans and up-and-comers alike rode brilliantly on a variety of terrains to showcase their talents, suggesting that the state of affairs for Australian cycling looks brilliant right now, and that is without Simon Gerrans or Michael Matthews, among the biggest stars Oz has to offer, even on the startlist.

However, another conclusion to be drawn from all this Australian dominance is that it may just be time to find a way to bring the Tour Down Under a bit closer to the big races of the rest of the season. Domenico Pozzovivo was on the startlist and he rode well (finishing 6th), but if this race were just a bit closer to his main targets of 2015, one has to imagine he might have been in better form to challenge for the climber’s stage at Willunga Hill. Marcel Kittel, Giacomo Nizzolo, and Gianni Meersman were among the best-known fast men in attendance, and none of them cracked a Top 5 in a stage. And beyond these few non-Australian stars and the handful of authors active in this race, the big-name talents from the rest of the world were a bit scarce, with many top riders electing to start their seasons elsewhere. The event itself was a roller coaster ride all week long, but with a few scheduling changes, things might be made even better, with a few more global stars likely to not only make the journey, but to make it in form and ready to challenge for results.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Charles Wong.

January 26, 2015
Tour Down Under 2015 Preview

The wait is over! The long WorldTour offseason is finally coming to an end as things get kicked off this week in Australia with the 17th edition of the Tour Down Under. A six-day stage race in and around Adelaide, the race has grown bigger and bigger in the past few years, and the parcours has developed as well: heavyweight sprinters have won the overall here in the past, but these days, a hillier route favors the more capable climbers in the peloton. Those hills tend to make for an exciting return to WorldTour racing, and also welcome return to race preview season here at VeloHuman.

Note: a shorter version of this preview can be seen at VeloNews.

The Route

There are no Alpine inclines to overcome in the Tour Down Under, but the hills that feature in a few of the race’s six stages are more than enough of a challenge to keep things interesting. The first WorldTour race of the year opens with a short (132.6 km) and mostly flat trip from Tanunda to Campbelltown, ending with a long straightaway that should give the sprinters an opportunity to pick up a victory. Stage 2 concludes with an uphill finish that has featured in previous editions of the Tour Down Under, probably not steep enough to make any serious separation likely, but potentially a place for the punchier GC contenders to make a bid for precious bonus seconds. Stage 3 features a new climb near the finish line in Paracombe, a short but steep affair that will almost certainly see gaps appearing in the bunch. The uphill specialists with GC aspirations cannot hesitate to launch for glory on Stage 3, as it is one of the few opportunities they will have to get clear of the peloton in the Tour Down Under.

Stage 4 will take the peloton on an undulating journey from Glenelg to Mt. Barker, where a flat finish will likely deter anyone from engaging in GC action. Stage 5, on the other hand, is the traditional queen stage of the Tour Down Under, 151.5 kilometers from McLaren Vale to classic TDU climb Willunga Hill, which will be climbed twice. 3 km at an average gradient over 7%, Old Willunga will inevitably see a showdown among the top climbers of the race. Richie Porte won here in 2014 with a 10 second gap, though as has often been the case in the TDU, his margin was not enough to overcome the GC bid of Simon Gerrans, whose propensity to collect bonus seconds put him in the driver’s seat in last year’s race. In other words, it is crucial to finish well on Willunga Hill, but consistent performance on the other five stages of the race is also crucial.

Stage 6 closes out the 2015 Tour Down Under with a 90 kilometer circuit race in the heart of Adelaide, essentially a very long criterium that almost invariably favors the pure sprinters.

Looking at the big picture, Stages 2, 3, and 5 are those likeliest to see the GC contenders trying to position themselves for a showdown. Regardless of whether serious gaps open up there or on any of the TDU’s six stages, however, it is important to be near the front at every finish line, as the dearth of long mountain climbs makes the battle for bonus seconds critical to the General Classification fight.

The GC Contenders

Sifting through the startlist to pick out the major favorites for the overall in the TDU can be difficult because the position of the race on the cycling calendar (in January) makes form and motivation a major unknown for a number of the riders in attendance, especially for those non-Australians who are not coming off of Nationals week like the home riders are. The absence of last year’s winner Simon Gerrans (who is out with a broken collarbone) will only add to that unpredictability. Still, plenty of big names, Australian and otherwise, stand out as likely GC contenders.

Having taken an impressive victory over several talented chrono stars in the Australian ITT National Championship, Richie Porte has proven to be in blazing form this January. There is no time trial in the TDU, and Porte isn’t known for his finishing kick, which will make it difficult for him to play the bonus seconds game, but with his ability to climb at an elite level, that might not matter. Given his display of fitness at Nationals, he looks ready to put it on the line here and it will be hard for his rivals to keep him in check when the road goes up. Geraint Thomas was 8th here last year even while riding in a support role for Porte, and he was 3rd in 2013. His powerful engine and not-insignificant sprinting ability will come in handy here, making him an excellent potential alternative for Sky.

Cadel Evans leads a BMC team that will hope to take on the Sky roster. This will be Evans’s last WorldTour event before he retires in a few weeks, and he’s never won this race, so he should be motivated to give it his all (especially after missing out on the victory here last year by one second). Even at age 37, he’s still got a nice finishing kick to pick up all-important time bonuses, and will be dangerous on several stages. In up-and-coming Australian talent Rohan Dennis, BMC has a strong second card to play. Dennis is known as a time-trialist but he climbed with the very best in last year’s Tour of California, and he is continuing to get better and better as an all-round talent.

Despite the absence of Simon Gerrans, Orica-GreenEdge will take on their home race with several potential GC men, with Daryl Impey looking like the best option. Impey is deadly in a reduced sprint, and if he can gain an early advantage of bonus seconds, he might have what it takes to hold on over the harder climbs. Simon Clarke’s penchant for aggressive riding could come in handy, especially in a race where one strong stage performance can be enough for an overall victory. Past winner Cameron Meyer will be more of an outsider this year, but a rider worth watching at the very least.

Cannondale-Garmin is another team with options. Ryder Hesjedal, Moreno Moser, and Alex Howes are all well-rounded talents with the potential to mix it up on a variety of stages, but Nathan Haas could be the best man on the squad for this Tour Down Under. He is another rider who will hope to win the bonus seconds game, and he showed off his strong finishing kick in last year’s race on his way to 5th overall. He has a propensity to perform very well outside of Europe, with two Japan Cup victories and results in the Jayco Herald Sun Tour and Tour de Langkawi as well.

Giant-Alpecin’s dual threat of Tom Dumoulin and Simon Geschke will be dangerous if both riders are in good enough form to mix it up with the favorites in this race. Dumoulin has an underrated sprint to match his elite soloing ability, while Geschke’s fast finish is a known commodity that will make him a contender for time bonuses on the 2nd and 4th stages. Katusha has Tiago Machado, an excellent climber, and Giampaolo Caruso, who is more explosive than many realize. That makes them another team with a dual threat worth keeping an eye on. AG2R brings a stable of climbers as well, with Domenico Pozzovivo the most prominent name but with Christophe Riblon and Blel Kadri, typically very strong on hillier days like the ones that could decide this race, making the start as well.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Michael Rogers will look to get clear of the peloton at any opportunity. The same is true for Lotto Soudal’s Adam Hansen; the Belgian squad also Thomas De Gendt as a potential contender. Astana’s Luis Leon Sanchez won here way back in 2005, and having returned to the WorldTour level with Astana after a year with Caja Rural, he will hope to kick the year off in style; his combination of strong soloing ability, decent climbing ability, and a nice sprint make him a dangerous outsider here. Movistar’s Jose Herrada and Gorka Izagirre and LottoNL’s George Bennett are other outsiders with a chance.

The Stagehunters

On the list of fast men who are making the start with clear stage-winning goals in mind, sprinting superstar Marcel Kittel tops the list, but his objectives and his readiness to take on a WorldTour-level race are a big question mark. He won the 2014 People’s Choice Classic but was afterward a non-factor in this race. Obviously, if he is in good shape, he will be the man to beat here in 2015, but that’s a big if. Form is also an unknown for talented Italians Giacomo Nizzolo and Roberto Ferrari, but there are stages to suit both if they are here to race. Nizzolo has great top-end speed and the opening stage to Campbelltown could suit him. Typically Mark Renshaw might have trouble hanging with the aforementioned big names, but on his home turf, anything is possible. Etixx – Quick-Step will hope to start the year off with a stage win from either Renshaw or the versatile Gianni Meersman, who could feature in Stages 2 or 4.

Heinrich Haussler is another rider with the potential to shine on those somewhat bumpier days. He was on excellent form in the Australian National Championship Road Race, getting into the day’s early breakaway at first, and then, after that was reeled in, jumping right back into another move off the front, the move that won the race. With that form, he should be able to do pick up some results in the Tour Down Under.

Steele Von Hoff, Barry Markus, Gregory Henderson, and JJ Lobato are other fast men to keep an eye on here.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

General Classification Winner: Richie Porte
GC Podium: Cadel Evans, Daryl Impey
Other Top GC Contenders: Nathan Haas, Tom Dumoulin, Geraint Thomas, Michael Rogers, Luis Leon Sanchez, Domenico Pozzovivo, Tiago Machado

VeloHuman was so excited about the return of racing season that in addition to writing this preview, VH teamed up with Cosmo Catalano to present The Recon Ride Podcast, a pre-race show. Give it a listen! And as usual, VH will be tweeting plenty of live analysis during the race, so follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Kym Della-Torre.

January 17, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 15 Preview

Stage 15: Valdengo > Plan di Montecampione – 225 km

There were no huge time gaps among the main GC contenders on a Stage 14 that went to a breakaway, but we learned a lot on the first really hard climbs of this race about who is on top form. Nairo Quintana seems to have overcome the various ailments that have troubled him through the first two weeks of the Giro d’Italia. His rivals have their work cut out for him as the road continues to go up in the next few days.

At 225 total kilometers, Stage 15 is one of the longest in the race, but the first 205.7 kilometers are quite flat. The real action will be reserved for the end of the day, when the road heads skyward. The Category 1 Plan di Montecampione is a leg-breaker, 19.4 kilometers at 7.6%. The first 11 km are pretty steady at around 8%, and then there is a brief respite in the 3% to 4% range before a finale of roughly 5 kilometers at gradients nearing 9%.

A breakaway victory is again possible, but with a rest day to follow and a lot on the line, the big guns should be out to play on the slopes. Wide roads and a mostly flat run-in to the final climb won’t offer much advantage to early attackers either.

It took two weeks, but Nairo Quintana finally showed his hand in Stage 14. He appears to be back at full strength, and on this long, steep final climb, he’s the big favorite now that he looks recovered from his crash and the sickness that followed. Movistar’s mountain goats also showed their mettle on Stage 14 and they’ll be able to put Quintana in a great place to take on this final ascent.

AG2R was another particularly impressive squad on the road to Oropa, especially given their cast of domestiques with names less recognizable than Eros Capecchi or Igor Anton. Domenico Pozzovivo ensured that their work was put to good use, picking up a few seconds on some of his GC rivals when he attacked with Nairo Quintana and managed to maintain a gap over at least a few of the riders behind. Stage 15 is another golden opportunity for the aggressive Italian and his dedicated French team to make their mark, and I expect Pozzovivo to be one of the strongest GC contenders on this climb.

Pink jersey wearer Rigoberto Uran did not look comfortable trying to match the moves of Quintana and Pozzovivo on Stage 14 and he lost some time, possibly a sign that the excellent time trialing ability he has developed may have come at the expense up some of his trademark uphill talent. With over 19 kilometers of sustained climbing to close out Stage 15, Uran could be in trouble. Still, it’s possible that he’s just had one bad day, and I’m not ready to completely downgrade my opinion of Uran just yet. Another day or two in the mountains will offer more clarity.

Cadel Evans looked to be struggling on Stage 14 as well. He didn’t lose a huge chunk of seconds, but the Plan di Montecampione climb is much longer, and it’s steeper. He has had good support so far, but I’m not sure how well BMC will be able to stick with their leader on the really difficult climbs of this final week. Evans still has a nice buffer to most of his rivals on GC (other than Uran), but I expect him to start losing time on these high gradients.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka should be pretty excited about this profile and what’s to come. He’s sitting 3rd at the moment, he’s climbing wonderfully, and he has a good team around him. Nicolas Roche took to the break on Stage 14, but he’ll be a very valuable domestique when called upon, as will Michael Rogers. In last year’s Giro, Majka showed on the Altopiano del Montasio and the Galiber that he can turn a good rhythm on even the very long climbs, so this finish should suit him.

Astana’s Fabio Aru continues to impress me. He actually finished just ahead of Pozzovivo on Stage 14. I keep waiting for him to show signs of weakness as we get deeper and deeper into the Giro d’Italia, but he has not faltered yet, and could be in for continued success on this stage for the pure climbers. Wilco Kelderman also continues to impress me, but this will be a real test. It’s a very long way to the Montecampione finish, and Kelderman doesn’t have a cast of supporters well-suited to the slopes. He’s proven that he deserves to be among the very biggest names in this race so far, but he’ll have his work cut out for him.

Europcar’s Pierre Rolland will be coming off a very hard effort, and it would be difficult enough when fully rested to match the big favorites on this long slog. Ryder Hesjedal certainly looks to have found some of his old form, but this will be a major challenge after a long day.

Trek’s Julian Arredondo did not make the Stage 14 breakaway, opening the door for Tim Wellens to pick up a lot of KOM points. There’s a big stash of points on offer at the Stage 15 finish, so I think it’s pretty likely that Arredondo will be very active in defense of his blue jersey, and as a non-threat to GC, he’ll probably be given freedom to go for a long one. Diego Ulissi is another explosive climber who doesn’t pose a big GC threat, but it’d be pretty surprising to see him survive this extended uphill journey unless he manages to do it from a long-distance move.

Speaking of long distance, more candidates for breakaway success (and outside candidates for success if they wait until the big climb) include Katusha’s Daniel Moreno and Colombia’s Fabio Duarte, neither of whom went particularly deep on Stage 14, Astana’s Mikel Landa, Androni’s Diego Rosa and Franco Pellizotti, and Bardiani’s Francesco Bongiorno. Also watch out for Sky’s Sebastian Henao, who has been climbing very well so far and who does not have any teammates with GC aspirations to look after now that Sky’s last hope for the overall, Kanstantsin Siutsou, has abandoned.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Domenico Pozzovivo | 3. Julian Arredondo

The peloton gets to enjoy a rest day after Stage 15, so check back on Monday for the preview of Tuesday’s Stage 16. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

May 24, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 12 Preview

Stage 12 (ITT): Barbaresco > Barolo – 41.9 km

Though the early breakaway of Stage 11 was ultimately reeled in on the final climb, most of the GC contenders did not make much of an effort trying to make the finale interesting (Michael Rogers of Tinkoff-Saxo attacked off the front of the pack on the descent and stayed away for the stage victory while the rest of the reduced bunch arrived together). The upcoming individual time trial, likely to have a major impact on the General Classification, is probably to blame for the maglia rosa hunters’ lack of interest in wasting too much energy on Stage 11.

The Stage 12 profile kicks off with a gentle uphill into the Cat. 4 Boscasso climb, a 3.1 kilometer, 5% average grade ascent. The early bump is followed by a tricky descent (and it could be made trickier by rainy weather), a flat section, and then a short climb, a quick descent, and another short climb to the finish. It’s a medium length chrono at 41.9 km, and it’s got a few rollers that will give the climbers at least a tiny bit of solace, but this looks like a test for the ITT specialists. Bike handling skills will be a major plus.

Many of the familiar time trialing talents are not on the Giro startlist (Tony Martin, Fabian Cancellara, and Bradley Wiggins are all absent), but until Stage 11, Movistar’s Adriano Malori seemed set to take on this contest as the big favorite. With back-to-back World Championship ITT Top 10s and his first WorldTour-level victory at Tirreno-Adriatico this year, Malori has jumped into the top echelon of chrono specialists in the sport. Unfortunately, he hit the deck very hard on the road to Savona and got pretty scraped up. That makes it very hard to say how he’ll perform in this time trial. On ability and a lack of other likely candidates, he’ll still be the favorite, but he’ll have a reasonable excuse to take this one easy if he isn’t feeling up to it.

Behind Malori are several other specialists who are targeting this victory. Malori’s teammate Jonathan Castroviejo will hope to pick up the slack for Movistar. 2014 results have been a mixed bag for him but he has the talent for potential success. Thomas de Gendt of OPQS came in a surprise 3rd behind Froome and Martin in the first ITT of last year’s Tour de France, reminding everyone just how good he can be on his day (though he has a reputation for inconsistency). In the absence of many of the bigger names in the discipline, De Gendt looks like a strong bet. Team Sky sent a squad full of chrono specialists to this race and they’ll hope to come away with some success. Dario Cataldo and Kanstantsin Siutsou have had a lot of success against the clock in their careers. Edvald Boasson Hagen was unable to make much of a dent in Stage 11 despite being tipped by a number of prognosticators as a potential protagonist, but his soloing skills are top-notch and he may decide to give this one a go. It will be interesting to see whether he takes a shot at the day: he’s won WorldTour level ITTs in the past, but in recent Grand Tour chrono stages he has not seemed interested in contending. Orica-GreenEdge has lost a number of its time trialists since the start of this race, but Australian national champ Michael Hepburn and longtime specialist Svein Tuft could deliver decent results. Trek’s Riccardo Zoidl is an up-and-coming talent in the ITT. At just 23, Giant-Shimano’s Tobias Ludviggson could surprise some people. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Michael Rogers went deep to pull off the victory in Stage 11, but he’s got a very strong ITT and may look for more success in a more open field than is normal for a Grand Tour time trial.

Among the General Classification riders are a few who stand out above the rest, and who will look to gain significant time on their less chrono-inclined rivals. A handful may even challenge for stage supremacy. BMC’s Cadel Evans is the big name at the top. He’s already got a significant time advantage in this race, and as a strong rider against the clock, he should put in a very good ride here. As a note, he was only decent in the Pais Vasco time trial earlier this year, so there is a bit of a question as to whether he’s still at the same top level he once was in this discipline. Strong descending skills will help. Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman is another GC name who counts time trialing among his strengths, and who also happens to look very sharp right now. Omega Pharma’s Rigoberto Uran has steadily improved as a time trialist over the past few years, and he showed off some top-notch form against the clock in the ITT at the recent Tour de Romandie. Continued success should be on the menu here. AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo is a very interesting case: he is well-known for his climbing prowess, but time trialing was never really one of his strong suits, at least not until the 2013 Vuelta, in which he shocked everyone when he landed 3rd behind Cancellara and Martin in the Stage 11 time trial. This will be a good opportunity to find out whether he really has taken his time trialing up a notch. Lotto Belisol’s Maxime Monfort is currently 13th on GC and a definite outsider, but I do expect him to pick up some time on his rivals here. Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal sits 15th overall, and he’ll be an intriguing rider to watch: he’s delivered a few strong time trialing performances in the past and he seems to have regained some of his old form this year, but this will be a real test.

Astana’s Fabio Aru, Trek’s Robert Kiserlovski, and Europcar’s Pierre Rolland may find themselves struggling to limit their losses. It’s hard to predict the performance of Movistar’s Nairo Quintana; he’s not known for being great against the clock, but he has put in some terrific time trials even on flatter parcours in his young career, 2nd to Tony Martin himself in the decisive ITT of the 2013 Vuelta al Pais Vasco. However, he rolled in three and a half minutes down on the first time trial of the 2013 Tour de France when a lot was on the line. He’ll be motivated to make this one of his better days, but he appears to still be suffering from his crash. I think he will turn in a decent performance, but I do expect him to lose some time.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Adriano Malori | 2. Thomas de Gendt | 3. Cadel Evans

The Stage 13 preview will be up a few hours after the final rider crosses the line on Stage 12. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

-Dane Cash

May 21, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9: Lugo > Sestola – 172 km

Another mountain test awaits the peloton on the Giro d’Italia’s ninth stage. The big names will all be at least a bit winded after a tough day: the GC riders put in some high pace on the climbs of Stage 8 to reel in the last survivor of the early breakaway, Julian Arredondo, in the final minutes, and then Diego Ulissi put in an impressive uphill charge for the stage victory. The first 110 kilometers of Sunday’s ninth stage are quite flat, but then the road kicks up leading into a trio of Categorized climbs: a Cat. 3, a Cat. 4, and then a long Cat. 2 ascent to the finish at Sestola. The first two lumps will take a bit out of the riders, but it’s the final climb that will do most of the hurting. 16.5 kilometers in total, it’s an irregular ascent that starts out with 8.5 km at a little under 5%, then jumps up to almost 9% (with a section of 13%) for 4 kilometers or so, and then eases off to 4.5% over the final few kilometers. The long first section, even at a less-than-fearsome gradient, will be a challenge after the peloton has already been riding skyward for so long. Whoever is at the front, the strongest climbers among the group should be able to hang on, but the attacks could come fast and furious in the very steep section that follows. If a lead group of riders makes it through to the gentler gradients near the top, a strong sprint will be useful in taking the day.

With so many of them hoping to pick up bonus seconds at the finish line, the GC riders made the effort to keep the break in check on Stage 8. There will certainly be opportunists who try to get ahead on Stage 9, but I’m not sure the peloton is feeling very generous at this point in the race. What’s more, some of the likeliest names for a breakaway success were very active in a tough Stage 8 and they’ll have a lot of recovering to do if they want to make a successful jump off the front in Sunday’s contest.

The irregular final climb makes this one tough to call even if the day’s breakers are swallowed up: a pure climber could take advantage of the brutal midsection on the slope and try for a solo move, but the GC strongmen have been very attentive so far about marshaling even the late attacks from the peloton. That could leave the stage open to a fast finish from a reduced bunch.

I think Stage 8 winner Diego Ulissi is in an excellent position to pick up a third win here. It’s not a particularly long stage, and the final climb provides opportunities both for a jump from the pack or a sprint victory. Ulissi is strong in either scenario, making him my top favorite. I do think he is a bit vulnerable if Movistar or AG2R really decide to put the hammer down for sustained periods in the steeper sections, but he’s been very impressive on the tough climbs so far.

Rigoberto Uran is also strong contender for a number of scenarios: he’s got the elite uphill ability to match any attacks that might come or even make them on his own, and he’s also got the turn of speed for a sprint finish. New pink jersey wearer Cadel Evans is another: he hasn’t shown many signs of weakness on the climbs yet, and on lesser gradients he’s one of the fastest finishers of the GC riders. BMC’s team support in the mountains has been surprising so far, with Steve Morabito doing some amazing work for his leader on Stage 8. Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman has ridden himself into this conversation with some very strong finishes lately; this time last year I viewed him as a strong time trialist who could hold his own on the climbs, but suddenly he looks like a top climber who can be explosive at the line as well.

Nairo Quintana is an obvious choice for any stage that ends with 16.5 uphill kilometers, but the grade becomes much less challenging near the top, which doesn’t favor his style and will probably require a long distance move for him to stay away. The same is true for Domenico Pozzovivo. Still, either rider could launch from afar on the steeper gradient, and both have strong teams to help whittle down the group as the going gets tough. Pozzovivo’s AG2R squad, in particular, has been sterling. They were quite prominent at the head of the pack on the climbs of Stage 8.

Trek’s Julian Arredondo would be a good pick to get aggressive on this profile but after such a strong performance on Stage 8, I’m not sure he’ll have the energy to pull off another. The same is true for his breakaway companion Stefano Pirazzi and for the rider who made a dash of his own late on the road up to Montecopiolo, Europcar’s Pierre Rolland.

For some outsiders among the GC guys: Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal has done a nice job to pick up the slack in the absence of Dan Martin and he can put in a nice turn of uphill speed. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka has been climbing very well. Astana’s Fabio Aru has really lived up to the hype so far, which is crucial now that Michele Scarponi has fallen off the pace. Trek’s Robert Kiserlovksi has taken his game to the next level this season and is climbing amazingly right now.

Of the riders that might be allowed to jump ahead, Daniel Moreno has to be the biggest name for me on this profile. He has the perfect skillset for the stage, and he’s too far down on GC to be a threat in the pink jersey contest. Also on the list of strong would-be GC riders who have fallen off the pace are Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche, Astana’s Michele Scarponi and Mikel Landa, and Lampre’s Przemyslaw Niemiec and Damiano Cunego (who excels at this sort of finish). Other riders who might find success in the right move include Lotto Belisol’s Tim Wellens and Adam Hansen, OGE’s Pieter Weening, Colombia’s Fabio Duarte and Miguel Rubiano, Neri Sottoli’s Matteo Rabottini and Mauro Finetto, and Bardiani’s Enrico Battaglin and Edoardo Zardini.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Diego Ulissi | 2. Cadel Evans | 3. Rigoberto Uran

After Stage 9, the peloton gets to enjoy a rest day. The preview of Tuesday’s Stage 10 will be up on Monday. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis of the Giro, and of the Tour of California as well!

May 17, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 8 Preview

Stage 8: Foligno > Montecopiolo – 179 km

Most of the major GC action in the Giro so far has come as a result of crashes on constantly wet roads, but Stage 8 will finally offer the sort of uphill tests to set up the first major mountain battle of the race. The pink jersey contenders were able to enjoy some time in the backseat on Stage 7 while the sprint teams took up the task of pulling back the day’s breakaway (Nacer Bouhanni was the stage winner just ahead of Giacomo Nizzolo and Luka Mezgec). Hopefully the overall contenders got as much rest as possible, because Stage 8 closes out with a Cat. 1 ascent, a very tricky descent, and then a two-part climb, officially classified as a Cat. 2, followed by a quick descent, and then a Cat. 1 finish.

Coming in such quick succession, the already difficult climbs will inject serious pain into the legs of anyone who isn’t at full strength. The ascent up the Cippo di Carpegna, which averages nearly 10%, will wear on even the best climbers, but following it up with an irregular climb up to the finish at Montecopiolo practically guarantees that gaps will start to form. Even if a small group manages to hold it together at the front most of the way up, the final few hundred meters of racing kick up to 13%, which should force some separation as the very lightest climbers jump for the finish.

Naturally, with some serious mountains on the docket, it will probably be the serious climbers who challenge for stage supremacy. We haven’t had that much of an opportunity to see which of them are on the best form right now, but this stage should help sort that out. On reputation and ability, Nairo Quintana is the somewhat obvious choice for stage favorite. Having lost some valuable seconds to his biggest rivals across the TTT and crash-filled sixth stage, Quintana needs to get moving on pulling back time. He’ll benefit from the help of a strong Movistar squad, with the likes of Eros Capecchi and Igor Anton as great lieutenants. This is an important opportunity to for Movistar to set the tone as the Giro enters its more difficult second and third weeks.

Rigoberto Uran is another rider who will look to make a statement here. He’s sitting nicely in the GC standings thanks to his Omega Pharma’s strong Stage 1 performance, but this is a real test of form. He’s had a mostly forgettable season on the climbs so far, but at his best he can mix it up with the elite mountain goats in the peloton. Furthermore, he’s got an explosive uphill kick, and if he reaches the final few hundred meters in a group, he’ll love the opportunity to launch a move for bonus seconds.

BMC’s Cadel Evans is also looking great for GC at the moment, bolstered by an excellent early TTT and the chunk of time he picked up on Stage 6. Winning this stage will be a lot to ask, as it’s a real question whether he can hang with the best climbers in this race at this point in his career, but with his stellar Giro del Trentino, he looks to have timed his peak nicely this season.

AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo looked very impressive catching back onto the peloton after being held up in the crash on Stage 6. He’s an elite climber who will be looking to gain time at every uphill opportunity, and I think this one suits him nicely. As I mentioned in my overall race preview, I really do expect him to mix it up with the big favorites in this Giro, and this will be his first test.

With Nicolas Roche out of the maglia rosa picture, Rafal Majka is now the guy for Tinkoff-Saxo’s GC ambitions. He was never far from the front on the toughest tests of last year’s Giro d’Italia, and he has another year of experience in 2014. I like his chances, especially with a very strong team backing him. Then again, I also wouldn’t put it past Roche to be on the hunt for stage wins now that he’s a non-factor for the pink jersey.

Trek’s Julian Arredondo and Lampre’s Diego Ulissi are explosive young climbers who will hope to hang on through a very difficult day and then launch late attacks on the irregular final slope. As yet another rider losing time in Stage 6, Arredondo has the added benefit of no longer being a GC threat, and may therefore be given some leeway to strike out for stage glory.

Astana has a number of weapons to animate the climb, and I think they’ll be very aggressive with attacks. Fabio Aru is very well placed for GC, and he’s a great climber. Michele Scarponi needs to win back some time. Mikel Landa is always looking for opportunities to put his uphill ability on display. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland, Bardiani-CSF’s Stefano Pirazzi, Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal, Katusha’s Daniel Moreno, Team Colombia’s Fabio Duarte, and Lampre’s Przemyslaw Niemiec are other riders to watch.

It wouldn’t be out of the question for the GC heavyweights to let a real outsider go off the front, but so many of them are already in a position where every bonus second counts, so I expect to see the bigger names contesting the stage win here.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Rigoberto Uran | 3. Domenico Pozzovivo

Stage 8 should provide some great insights into which riders are on top form right now. Check back a few hours after the finish for the preview of Stage 9, which will throw another uphill challenge at the peloton. If you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis of the Giro, and of the Tour of California as well!

-Dane Cash

May 16, 2014