Despite a few early hills on the profile, the GC men should have an opportunity to let the stagehuners take the driver’s seat on the Giro’s seventh stage. It will be a very welcome opportunity coming on the heels of the wildest day in this race so far. Late carnage on rainslicked roads on Stage 6 saw a number of riders hit the deck and slowed many more, allowing a small group that included BMC’s Cadel Evans and Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge to gap the bunch at the start of the final climb. Those behind eventually organized a chase, but the small group held their lead all the way up the slope, with VH stage favorite Michael Matthews sprinting to his first win of the Giro when they reached the top. With a few bonus seconds for his 3rd place on the stage thrown in, Evans picked up 53 seconds on the chasing group that included Nairo Quintana, Rigoberto Uran, and a few other contenders, but it took some time for the full consequences of the day’s carnage to be known. Those consequences turned out to be dire for several very big GC names, including one of the biggest in the race: Joaquim Rodriguez suffered a broken finger and bruised ribs in the crash, and although he did finish the stage, he has abandoned the Giro d’Italia. It’s another heartbreaking turn of events for Purito, who was so hopeful of finally getting that first Grand Tour win in this event. Several other GC contenders lost varying amounts of time. To name just a few, Lampre’s Damiano Cunego and Astana’s Michele Scarponi lost about a minute and a half to Evans, and Cunego’s teammate Przemyslaw Niemiec lost closer to two minutes, but they were relatively lucky compared to Saxo-Tinkoff’s Nicolas Roche, who came across the line fifteen minutes down.
Purito wasn’t the only rider who abandoned in the wake of the crash-marred sixth stage (the list of abandons includes Purito’s teammates Angel Vicioso and Giampaolo Caruso, who are both out after suffering nasty injuries as well), so it will be a somewhat smaller peloton that sets out from Frosinone in Stage 7. There are a number of bumps along the road to Foligno, but none of them are particularly challenging, and the last one is crested with 40 km still to go on the day. Breakers will surely take their chances, but with a long, flat run to finish line, the sprinters’ teams should make a strong effort to pull back anyone who gets too far up the road. A breakaway victory is certainly possible, but I think a bunch sprint is the more likely outcome. Whatever the size of the lead group entering town, a nasty hairpin with about 1.5 km remaining will make for a fierce fight to get into position early, but the final kilometer that follows is not as technical as some we’ve seen so far; there is a gentle right turn with around 500 meters to go, but it shouldn’t slow down the riders too much. I don’t think the profile will be too much for any of the major sprinter names to handle, so after two days of finishes open to a considerably more versatile cast of contenders, I think we’ll see the familiar top-flight fastmen battling it out in the finale.
Cannondale has looked strong on every sprint stage of this race so far, but they haven’t been able to nail down their timing just yet. If they can perfect things here, Elia Viviani will be tough to beat, with an elite turn of top speed. He’s the first of my (probably unsurprising) trio of stage favorites. FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni is the second. I think his leadout is something of a disadvantage, but he’s very good at fighting for his own position when he has to, and he already has a stage victory to prove that he is one of the fastest riders in this Giro. Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo is the other rider I see as a top favorite. He has some excellent squadmates to deliver him to the finish at a very high speed, but he always finds himself just slightly out of position. I think he’s likely to get it right eventually, and I bet he’ll be flying over the final kilometer of Stage 7.
Luka Mezgec, now that Marcel Kittel is gone, will benefit from one of the best leadouts in the Giro d’Italia. He took the the final stage of WorldTour racing in 2013 in the Tour of Beijing, winning a sprint finish over both Bouhanni and Viviani, so I think he’s a real contender now that he’s Giant’s featured rider.
Sky seems to be behind Ben Swift on the flatter sprints in this race, with Edvald Boasson Hagen playing a fantastic second. The pair are quite formidable. I think they’d prefer a more challenging final half-hour of racing, but Swift was 2nd behind only Marcel Kittel on Stage 3 and will probably continue to place highly on even the flat days. As a note, Sky showed on Stage 5 that they aren’t afraid of sending one of their quick men into a break, and on this profile that has at least some potential for breakaway success, I don’t think it’s out of the question that they try again; Boasson Hagen is a particularly talented breakaway artist.
Pink jersey wearer Michael Matthews would absolutely prefer more challenges on the profile, but he’s likely to at least be in contention late again. Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari is a pretty constant fixture in the Top 10s of this Giro’s sprint finishes. He lacks the team support to be considered a big favorite but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him nab one of these sprint stages with some luck. Tyler Farrar hit the deck hard in Stage 6, so his overall health is something of an unknown. Manuel Belletti, Davide Appollonio, Francesco Chicchi, Jetse Bol, Tony Hurel, Alessandro Petacchi (should he finally decide to contend a sprint), and Nicola Ruffoni headline the other names who could challenge in a bunch gallop.
Check back after Stage 7 for the preview of Stage 8; Saturday’s racing is likely to provide some GC fireworks! If you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis of the Giro, and of the Tour of California as well!
The sixth stage of the Giro d’Italia ends with another hilltop finish. It should bring out many of the same names that featured in today’s fifth stage. In the early goings of Stage 5, a number of sprinters, including Elia Viviani and Ben Swift, jumped into a breakaway and stayed out front long enough to pick up intermediate sprint points. Eventually, the breakers were reeled in by an OGE-led peloton. Prior to the final climb, a crash on a rain-soaked descent caused some confusion and a split, but most of the major contenders made it back on to the pack as they started to push uphill. A few riders fired off attacks, but a high-tempo Katusha squad marshaled any long-range moves, and in the end, things were decided in an uphill drag race as expected. VeloHuman Favorites Diego Ulissi and Cadel Evans were 1st and 2nd to the line. Julian Arredondo just barely missed out on runner-up honors and settled for 3rd. Rigoberto Uran was 4th. Michael Matthews managed to make it to the final meters with the bunch and delivered a valiant 6th on the day, but it was the real climbers who shone brightest in the end.
Stage 6 is a long one, totaling 257 kilometers (10 km were added in a landslide-forced route change), but with only a few early bumps and then a very long stretch of flat, it’s unlikely that there will be much action until the road starts to wind upward toward the hilltop finish at the Abbey of Montecassino. A little over 9 kilometers long, it’s a steady 5% climb almost all the way up, but it flattens out in the final km. It won’t be steep enough to favor long-range attackers, but it will certainly drop the big sprinters again and is likely to set up a scenario similar to the one we saw in Stage 5. Those riders with a fast finish who are light enough to hang on during the climb will probably contest a sprint finale atop the Category 2 hill.
I think we’ll see many of the same names who fought for Stage 5 fighting for Stage 6. In fact, my three stage favorites are the same three from yesterday’s preview, albeit in a different order. Stage 5 winner Diego Ulissi is again well-suited to the finish, but he may not like the 250 kilometers that come before it, as he does tend to struggle on longer days. Also, the final meters are less of a challenge than he likes. Still, he showed top-shelf form by winning handily in Viggiano, and I think he’ll be another top favorite for a post-climb sprint on Stage 6.
He may be forced to contend with some real sprinting talent on a flatter finish. There are only a handful of fast men capable of contending in a traditional bunch sprint who have the chops to survive this climb, but they could find themselves fighting for victory here. The journey to the Abbey of Montecassino will be more difficult than the last climb of Stage 5, but the closing meters of Stage 6 are significantly less steep, meaning that if Michael Matthews survives, he will be more at home in the final moments. The pink jersey wearer will be the favorite from a reduced bunch if he can manage to hang on, and the way he stayed with the GC men on Stage 5 gives me confidence in his ability even on the longer climb tomorrow. With Ben Swift jumping into the break on Stage 5, I think Sky has determined that Edvald Boasson Hagen is the better rider to back in a bunch finish on these uphill stages, so if forced to go with one or the other I’d pick the Norwegian here, but both might make it and they’ll be the top names with Matthews if they are there towards the end of the day. Bardiani’s Enrico Battaglin showed off his ability to outsprint Grand Tour competition after a tough climb when he won a stage in last year’s Giro. This finish will suit his talents nicely, though he has yet to deliver much this year.
The journey to Viggiano ultimately favored the climbers and GC riders over the sprinters, and I think this stage will again see a number of major pink jersey contenders fighting for bonus seconds. Most of them would prefer a steeper final kilometer but BMC’s Cadel Evans, who was so strong in Stage 5, is an exception. Compared to his rivals, I like him even more on a flatter gradient; when other climbers lose a lot of explosiveness, he still packs a nice punch. If the long day and final climb whittle the group down, Evans is a great bet. Lampre’s Damiano Cunego is another contender among the General Classification riders as the road evens out, especially if teammate Ulissi goes missing. Daniel Moreno, who might be favored here, continues to show that it’s all for Joaquim Rodriguez in this race. Purito will likely be at the front of the bunch in the Stage 6 finish, but I don’t think it’s steep enough for him to be a favorite; Stage 5 ended on a tougher gradient and he was only 7th on the day. Rigoberto Uran looked very sharp on Stage 5, but like Purito, I think he only has an outside chance on this flatter run-in. The same is true for Trek’s Julian Arredondo, who has been so great so far in 2014; I love his explosiveness and was very impressed by his Stage 5 performance, but this climb just isn’t particularly steep, especially not towards the top. Saxo-Tinkoff’s Nicolas Roche and Rafal Majka and, AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo can also turn on the jets if they see an opportunity. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see one of them trying to attack somewhere on this climb, along with the likes of Pierre Rolland, Samuel Sanchez, Mikel Landa or Fabio Aru, but I think they’ll have a hard time getting much distance at this gradient.
A number of punchy specialists will hope to feature after giving way to a group mostly made up of star climbers on Stage 5, though if you read the preview for that stage you probably won’t be surprised by the names I’ve got on my mind for this one, as it’s a very similar list. Astana’s Enrico Gasparotto was caught up in a crash on the fifth stage; the winner of the 2012 Amstel Gold Race likely sees this profile as another great opportunity. Trek’s Fabio Felline was another crash-slowed would-be Stage 5 contender who will try his chances again on Stage 6. Cannondale has a wealth of options for these profiles, including Oscar Gatto, Moreno Moser, and Daniele Ratto. Neri-Sottoli has a nice pair of options in Simone Ponzi and Matteo Rabottini. Pieter Serry of OPQS could give it a go, or teammate Gianluca Brambilla could try for another long one. Giant’s Simon Geschke could fare a bit better with the road flattening out late. As a final note, Garmin’s Nathan Haas spent Stage 5 clearly suffering from his spate of crashes in this race; it’s a shame, because I think he would be a great outsider here if only he were in better health.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Michael Matthews | 2. Diego Ulissi | 3. Cadel Evans
Stage 4 of the Giro d’Italia was a strange one. The abandonment of Marcel Kittel was the first big news event of the day. A fever laid the German fast man low, opening the Giro’s sprint stages up to a number of other contenders who had been relegated to also-rans by his presence early in this race. The loss of Kittel wouldn’t be the only big story of Stage 4: nasty weather hit Southern Italy as the contest kicked off, and the peloton decided that the roads were just too dangerous. The riders themselves decided to neutralize the early racing, and eventually the commissaires made the official ruling: times for GC would be settled at the penultimate lap of the finishing circuit, and then the sprinters would get their opportunity to fight for a win, albeit without any bonus seconds on offer. All of the major contenders made it safely to the new finish line, and then it was a mad final lap around Bari for the fast men. Nacer Bouhanni suffered a late mechanical but made his way (albeit with some moto-pacing) back to the bunch. Cannondale looked well-placed as the finish line neared, but most of their leadout went down in a sudden crash on the wet roads. From the carnage, Giant-Shimano seemed to emerge in the best shape, but Luka Mezgec dropped a chain in the final moments. Tom Veelers made a strong effort to pick up the slack on his own, but he was passed in the last few meters. Nacer Bouhanni took his first Grand Tour stage win, with Nizzolo just behind.
After three straight flat sprint finishes, Stage 5 will finally offer a venue for a new show. There are three categorized climbs on the course: the first, a Cat. 3, comes at the end of a very long stretch of uphill road, and is crested 138.4 kilometers into the race. It’s not a steep journey but it will inject a bit of tiredness into heavier legs. A little over 40 kilometers from the top of that ascent, the peloton will start the climb toward Viggiano. It’s a Category 4 affair into town and the first passage of the finish line, and then a circuit around Viggiano that involves a technical descent and a Cat. 4 climb to the line for the second and final time. The uphill finish is not an overly demanding one, but it’s likely to bring a mostly different cast of players to contest the victory than we’ve seen so far. From the bottom of the aforementioned descent it’s about 6.5 uphill kilometers to the finish line. The majority of the way up is taken at around 3%, but the final kilometer rises to 7%, which practically guarantees the Vivianis and Nizzolos will be outgunned by lighter types.
Not many of the sprinters who have been active on the opening stages have any real shot here. OGE’s Michael Matthews is an exception. He has had this stage on his mind from the outset. He is at his strongest in a sprint with a bit of a gradient when his heavier rivals are unable to match his pace. The big question for Stage 5 is whether the late 7% might be too steep. Past results would suggest that Bling excels in the realm of 4% and even 5%, but it’s hard to say whether he’s built for this steep a finish. The Sky duo of Ben Swift and Edvald Boasson Hagen are the other possible exceptions. Sky has backed Swift so far in this race and he, too, will love the chance to charge for the line without the likes of Viviani and Bouhanni alongside. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the team behind EBH on this gradient.
While even the most versatile sprinters will be hard-pressed on the slope, it will be a welcoming challenge for a number of riders who specialize in finishing fast uphill. Lampre-Merida’s Diego Ulissi is the name that stands out the most. He will love the profile. He outmatched Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner Simon Gerrans in an uphill drag at the Tour Down Under earlier this year, and after a disappointing running in the Ardennes, I think he’s hungry for another win in his home country. The form is definitely a question mark, as he hasn’t picked up any big results in a while, but the skillset is almost perfectly matched for the finish here. Garmin-Sharp’s Nathan Haas is a real outsider with the bookmakers, but heis another rider I like for this stage. He also made quite a splash at the Tour Down Under, showing on a number of occasions a faster finish than most expected, especially when hills were involved. Unfortunately, he went down in Garmin’s nasty Stage 1 crash and seemed a bit banged up, making his health the biggest unknown; however, he’s been finishing with the pack in the stages since, and he’s also had a rest day and then mostly neutralized stage to recover. If he is indeed close to 100%, I think he’ll be very dangerous against some better known names for Stage 5. Other specialists who will be targeting this opportunity for an uphill sprint include Astana’s Enrico Gasparotto, Bardiani’s Enrico Battaglin, Trek’s Fabio Felline, Giant’s Simon Geschke, Cannondale’s Oscar Gatto and Moreno Moser, and Neri Sottoli’s Simone Ponzi (who has looked great this year and will love a chance to show Astana that they made a mistake by letting him go in the offseason).
A number of General Classification contenders could be on the hunt for stage glory and bonus seconds, and I expect to see some of them at the front in the final moments. Daniel Moreno is perfectly suited for this finish, but Katusha has already had a number of struggles early in the Giro, so it could be all hands on deck for Joaquim Rodriguez. He prefers steeper, but he’s got a nice uphill sprint no matter the gradient. The same is true for Rigoberto Uran of OPQS. BMC’s Cadel Evans is surprisingly quick to the line even at lower grades, and he loves to fight for bonus seconds. Teammate Samuel Sanchez is a dangerous uphill charger as well. Haas’s teammate Ryder Hesjedal and Ulissi’s teammate Damiano Cunego could feature. Trek’s Julian Arredondo is another climber who shows a nice burst of speed when necessary.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Diego Ulissi | 2. Cadel Evans | 3. Michael Matthews Outsider to Watch: Nathan Haas
The preview of Giro d’Italia Stage 6 will be up not long after the Stage 5 finish. If you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis of the Giro, and of the Tour of California as well. Rohan Dennis won an important Stage 3 in that race today and took back some time against Bradley Wiggins on GC. I’m not previewing California but I will be tweeting plenty of pre-race thoughts and picks for the stages to come.
Early season tuneup races have done their part to offer insight into riders’ form in 2014, but the main event of spring stage racing is now here. The 97th Giro d’Italia begins in Belfast Friday with a team time trial. After two more days on the island, the Giro heads to Italy. Continuing recent trends, a difficult, climber-centric parcours has drawn a climber-heavy field to the race.
Vincenzo Nibali won last year’s edition with a dominant display of ability, finishing with nearly five minutes between himself and the next best placed rider, Rigoberto Uran. Cadel Evans took the final podium place of 2013. To earn their results, all of the riders braved extreme weather that forced a stage cancellation. Ryder Hesjedal (winner in 2012) and Bradley Wiggins both dropped out of the race before it reached its final destination. Difficult conditions are commonplace here, a feature of the race that, like the Italian Alps, must be overcome on the way to victory. Nibali will not be on the startlist this year, but many of the other protagonists of the 96th edition will be returning, as will the Martelltal-climbing stage that was unfortunately cancelled last year. Before I dive further into to the route, a note: VeloHuman will be previewing every stage of the 2014 Giro, so be sure to check back often for daily profiles and picks. The Stage 1 Preview is already up! Also, follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race!
The Route
The Giro d’Italia includes an introductory team time trial, two individual time trials (one essentially a hill climb), eight flat or flattish stages, five medium mountains stages (almost all ending uphill), and five high mountain stages, each with summit finishes. The parcours favors the more climbing-oriented GC contenders over those who sacrifice uphill ability for chrono-power. Bonus seconds of 10-6-4 at the finish and 3-2-1 at intermediate sprints will benefit the explosive riders and fast finishers.
Stage 8 and the Montecopiolo will be an early test for the GC favorites.
Taking the race one stage at a time: the first week kicks off with a medium distance TTT that will create a few small gaps in GC before a trio of stages for the sprinters (riders will get a day off to travel to Italy for Stage 4). Uphill finishes on Stages 5 and 6 could create some light GC action. A hilly Stage 7 closes out the first week in advance of difficult mountain stages (8 and 9) in the beginning of the second week.
With so many days for the pure climbers, an individual time trial on Stage 12 will weed out a number of would-be GC contenders.
After a rest day, Stages 10 and 11 shouldn’t have many GC implications. The rolling 41.9 kilometer time trial that follows on the 12th stage will; it could be one of the most pivotal tests of the Giro. Stage 13 will likely be another day off the pink jersey hunters, but Stages 14-16 will throw three consecutive summit finishes at the peloton (albeit with a rest day before Stage 16).
The fearsome Monte Zoncolan on Stage 20 guarantees suspense right up to the end.
Riders will save what energy they can on a bumpy but likely uneventful (at least for GC) Stage 17. The Rifugio Panarotta climb that closes out Stage 18 is roughly 16 kilometers at an approximately 8% average grade. Stage 19’s mountain time trial will be 26.8 kilometers of Category 1 climbing. And, of course, Stage 20 will throw down the gauntlet known as Monte Zoncolan, one of the most brutal climbs on the entire pro cycling calendar. 10 kilometers at around 12%, the summit finish will be a final test for the top riders in the race before the sprinters get their last hurrah in Stage 21, a 172 kilometer ride to Trieste and the podium presentation.
There are certainly a few early tests, but the action will really pick up in the second week, and all but two of the final eight stages are rife with extreme slopes and, as such, GC implications. The winner of this race will have to string together quite a few consistently strong performances in a row to come away victorious. With so many uphill finishes, a strong team of supporters will be crucial, as will an ability to avoid misfortune. There really aren’t many stages on which it’s okay for a rider to have a bad day.
The General Classification Contenders
The 2014 Giro d’Italia will kick off with two out-and-out favorites who stand, at least at the moment, head and shoulders above the competition. First and foremost is last year’s Tour de France runner-up, 24-year-old Nairo Quintana. A climbing superstar in a climber’s Grand Tour, Quintana looks just as strong in 2014 as he did in 2013. Quintana has shown that his elite ability to deliver on the mountains day after day after day is going strong in 2014, with nice performances in the Tour de San Luis, Tirreno-Adriatico, and the Volta a Catalunya. With this parcours, he enters the race with the title of favorite. He has had some time off racing, but that didn’t seem to be a problem before last year’s Tour, so I imagine he’ll be ready to roll. What’s more, he’ll have the full support of an elite Movistar team from the opening stage of the race, which was not the case in last year’s Tour de France, where Movistar set out to support Alejandro Valverde before altering their plan midway through the event. Jonathan Castroviejo and Adriano Malori will help set up Quintana nicely in the team time trial, and then riders like Eros Capecchi and Igor Anton will be strong workhorses when the road goes skyward.
Quintana’s main challenger looks to be Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez. The Spanish climber has earned quite a collection of Grand Tour podiums in his past few years, but he is still seeking an elusive Grand Tour victory. He came close in this very race in 2012, losing out on the victory and settling for 2nd after losing too many seconds in the final time trial. The 2014 Giro d’Italia is about as well-suited to Purito’s skillset as he could hope for; one of the time trials is basically a king of the hill competition, the other involves rolling ascents that will still favor his characteristics. Purito looked brilliant in the Volta a Catalunya in March, but had a rash of misfortune to follow, suffering injury in a crash at Amstel Gold. The crash derailed his Ardennes campaign and left him with some question marks coming into the Giro, his biggest target of the year. He will have had a few weeks to recover by the time the race kicks off, and the flattish first few days will give him further time to ride back into form, but the concerns are there. Still, Purito is a fighter and I imagine he’ll be among the top riders in the race, especially with bonus seconds on offer. Against a strong Movistar team and a number of other contenders, he’ll need to be gunning for every finish line. Fortunately, he’ll have top lieutenant Daniel Moreno at his side, another danger man for bonus seconds. The pair make a fearsome team and give Katusha a strong 1-2 punch. I think they’ll make the fight for the maglia rosa a close one.
Former Tour de France winner Cadel Evans looked excellent in the Tour Down Under, then rusty at Tirreno-Adriatico, and then back on to form at Pais Vasco. He was the best rider at the Giro del Trentino, facing many of the same names he’ll take on at the Giro d’Italia. He took 3rd in this race last year, and he’s out to prove he has at least another year in the tank. Given his recent performances, I think he’ll put in a strong race, but on this unforgiving profile, he may have a hard time keeping up with elite climbers. He will at least have a strong second in Grand Tour podium finisher Samuel Sanchez, who looks good, if not great yet, this season.
He doesn’t have the name recognition of a former yellow jersey holder or Olympic champion, but Domenico Pozzovivo is my pick for the rider most likely to challenge favorites Nairo Quintana and Joaquim Rodriguez. The Italian climber put in a Top 10 performance at last year’s Giro, but the real show came at the Vuelta a España, where he notched a 6th overall and displayed a newfound ability to deliver a top-shelf time trial. Always strong uphill, Pozzovivo’s recent discovery of chrono talent, along with a fair bit of general all-around improvement, make him a dangerous contender. He has been hot so far this season, delivering top 10s in every race he has undertaken, including landing 2nd in the Giro del Trentino and then flying to Liege to notch a 5th overall just two days later. The biggest hurdle to overcome will be questionable team support: he will be leading an AG2R squad without many of that outfit’s big names. Still, I think he will challenge the very best in this race.
Rigoberto Uran was the surprise runner-up in the 2013 edition, a result that built on a 7th overall and a young rider jersey from the previous year. No one was able to match Nibali in 2013, but Uran came closest, even beating him to the summit of the Altopiano de Montasio en route to a stage win. He lost big chunks of time on the chrono stages, but performed remarkably well for a rider who started the race as a lieutenant to Bradley Wiggins. He rides for a different team this year; OPQS signed him in the offseason to be their main GC rider. Uran has had a rocky start to 2014, landing 3rd overall against some big names in the Tour of Oman but otherwise delivering forgettable results in Tirreno-Adriatico, Catalunya, and Romandie. Still, the Giro is his main objective and it’s a race he knows, and it is important to remember that he’d done basically nothing last year leading into this race either. He also put in a stellar performance at the final ITT stage in the TdR this weekend, hinting that he may be stronger than his recent GC results would suggest. With a great team of supporters that includes Wout Poels and Thomas de Gendt, I think Uran will find himself at the pointy end of affairs in Italy.
Garmin sends a former Giro winner (as recently as 2012) in Ryder Hesjedal, but climbing specialist Dan Martin is probably the more dangerous rider for the squad. He’s won some serious climbers’ races, but GC success in a Grand Tour has eluded him so far. With the opening few stages taking place in Ireland, this year’s Giro is his main target. Martin’s form was a question mark right up until La Fleche Wallonne late last month, where he dispelled all concerns with a 2nd place performance atop the Mur; he continued to display stellar form in a title defense at Liege, where a late crash ruined an almost certain Top 5 placing, and possibly even an overall victory. However, one-day races are not Grand Tours, and Martin has had a penchant for running into problems in the longer races. Allergies and crashes have derailed his attempts in the past. Still, Martin knows that people question his ability to handle the Grand Tours, and I think he’s ready to silence his critics. The form is there, and unlike many of the other contenders, he doesn’t have too many miles on the tires yet this season. I think a Top 10 is within his reach, especially without many long, flat time trial miles. Teammate Hesjedal will be hoping for a resurgence; he has done very little since his overall victory here in 2012. Flashes of form at a few races last year suggest that he may still have top-level ability somewhere hidden away, but a lack of results so far this year make me skeptical of his chances.
Like cousin Dan Martin, Nicolas Roche is another GC rider looking forward to the start in his home country of Ireland. The 29-year-old really reached another level in last year’s Vuelta, landing in the Top 5 and nabbing a stage victory. He’s been rather quiet so far in 2014, but the Giro is easily the biggest objective of his year. Tinkoff-Saxo has another weapon in Rafal Majka, who finished 7th in 2013. He looks to be rounding into form this year, and he’ll love the mountainous route. With the Roche-Majka 1-2, Tinkoff-Saxo will be very active when the road goes up, and even without many results to go on in 2014, I think the pair will put at least one rider into the Top 10.
Astana won this race last year, and they send 2011 winner (after Contador was stripped of that title) Michele Scarponi this year. He has had a number of good, though not great performances so far in 2014, and was a fine 4th overall in last year’s race. Decent, if not world-beating, showings seem to be the name of the game for the aging Italian climber, and I think it’s likely we’ll get another here. His team does send a very strong team of lieutenants/alternatives to liven up the ascents: Mikel Landa has looked strong this year and young Fabio Aru was great again in the Giro del Trentino. A climber-centric route favors their skillsets.
Former Giro winner Damiano Cunego finally looks to have re-found some form here in 2014, climbing very well in Pais Vasco. Though it has now been a decade since his Grand Tour victory, Cunego is still only 32 years old. The route, and potential bonus seconds, suit the veteran. Lampre teammate Przemyslaw Niemiec may actually be a stronger option. Long an also-ran for the Italian squad, Niemiec has quietly put together some great recent results using his well-rounded skillset; his 6th overall at the 2013 Giro was one of a number of strong showings that year, and he looked great in Trentino this year. Diego Ulissi will likely be hunting stage wins in this race, as he has yet to show the sort of endurance to contend for a Grand Tour GC, but with the Cunego, Niemiec, and Ulissi trio, Lampre has one of the best uphill squads in the race.
The list of fellow Italian cycling stars of days past making renewed attempts at glory has even more names: for one, Ivan Basso, winner of the 2010 Giro d’Italia, is also in attendance. Unlike Scarponi or even Cunego, he has not had many recent showings of form, and he looked off the pace in Trentino and Romandie. I also question his team support. He may struggle to hang with the likes of Purito and Quintana as the uphill miles wear on. Androni Giacottoli’s Franco Pellizotti is yet another aging Italian star looking for another shot at success. 3rd here in 2009, Pellizotti has delivered a handful of decent showings in big races in the last year, including a respectable 9th in Trentino in April. Another respectable showing seems within his reach at the Giro d’Italia, though I don’t expect much of a serious GC challenge.
Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman looked sharp in Paris-Nice this year before a mechanical derailed his overall hopes. He’s a strong time trialist who might prefer a less climber-happy route, but Belkin, with star Robert Gesink sidelined indefinitely for health reasons and Bauke Mollema en route to the Giro, has a lot of faith in their young rider. Climber Steven Kruijswijk is along as well. Trek Factory Racing is also placing their faith in new blood. Robert Kiserlovski is coming into his own, with Top 10s in Tirreno-Adriatico and Catalunya. He was actually 10th in the Giro in 2010. As a rider who struggles against the clock, he’ll appreciate the overall parcours, though even with its rolling profile, Stage 12 will likely put a dent in his chances for General Classification. Kiserlovski is one of a number of strong up-and-comers for Trek; star youth Julian Arredondo is taking on his first Grand Tour and will look to animate the race when the road goes up, though stagehunting is a much more realistic goal for the GT rookie. Riccardo Zoidl is another Grand Tour newcomer, a well-rounded rider who looks sharp this season. Trek may not have a big name in this race, but I think we’re likely to see their kit mixing on a few mountain stages and maybe even on the fringes of the GC Top 10.
Sky’s bid for GC rests even further on the periphery. Kanstantin Siutsou has a Giro Top 10 to his name (in 2009) and Dario Cataldo has come close in the past, with a pair of 12th places on his palmares. Unfortunately for the pair, this is not a parcours that favors TT specialists. Pete Kennaugh is a late scratch due to illness.
Other outsiders include Europcar’s Pierre Rolland, who has not shown much of his uphill ability yet this year, but who will like all the mountains if he can find the form. OGE’s Ivan Santaromita is a talented climber who has not had many opportunities to ride for his own ambitions in his career, but the Australian squad will support him in his home Grand Tour. Finally, Team Colombia’s young Fabio Duarte is coming off a very impressive Giro del Trentino and will hope to make an impression for the Pro Continental squad at the top level.
The Stagehunters
As climber-centric as the parcours appears, there are still a number of stages that look like they will end in sprint finishes, due to the fact that most of the days that do not end in uphill charges look to have profiles that the sprinters can handle. Coastal winds and nerves could play their part, but Stages 2-4, all undertaken before any real climbing challenges, look like contests for the fast men, and this opportunity for bunch gallop finishes so early in the race has drawn a fine list of sprinters. At the same time, the scoring system behind the red points jersey was changed this year to offer more points on flat stages, meaning that the points classification is even more likely to go to a sprinter than in the past, further incentivizing participation by the fast men.
The biggest name among them is Giant-Shimano’s Marcel Kittel, who won four stages at last year’s Tour de France. Giant sends a squad to this race that is 100% devoted to picking up stage wins, with Kittel as their leader and the very talented (and hot in 2014) Luka Mezgec for the stages where Kittel doesn’t make the finish line. This is a surprisingly common occurrence for the young German fast man, who sacrifices a bit of versatility for all that top speed. With the combined Kittel-Mezgec front, it will be very hard to beat GSH in the sprints stages. Kittel might be the favorite for the points classification if that competition did not require you to finish the race, but it does, and he could struggle to hold on in the grueling final week, especially with the Tour as his main objective.
Giacomo Nizzolo, Tyler Farrar, and Fran Ventoso will hope to challenge for sprint victories.
Cannondale’s Elia Viviani is my pick for top non-Giant sprinter, and as an Italian rider with a strong focus on this race, he may be more inclined to stick it out all the way to Trieste. Viviani had a good 2013, but he has been lights out in 2014, beating Mark Cavendish twice in Turkey. It looks like he’s peaking at the perfect time, making him the most likely rider to challenge the GSH sprinting juggernaut. FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni has been on fire this year, winning stages all over the map, and he has the top-end speed to challenge Kittel and Viviani. Giacomo Nizzolo looks strong for Trek after a collarbone injury derailed his early spring campaign. Nizzolo can handle tough days in the saddle and will also look to hang on when his fellow fast men start to abandon. Orica-GreenEdge’s Michael Matthews will lament the lack of more difficult hilly-but-not-too-mountainous stages that might drop his opponents and give him a chance to sprint from a smaller group, but as he showed in the final stage of last year’s Vuelta, he’s quite capable in a traditional sprintfest. Sky’s dynamic duo of Ben Swift and Edvald Boasson Hagen are in a similar boat. Of the two, EBH is very fast but Swift looks like the hotter hand right now. Garmin’s Tyler Farrar has had a resurgent 2014, posting nice results in the classics, and he’ll look to find some tangible success here. OPQS sends Alessandro Petacchi, who still looks remarkably fast in the twilight of his career. Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari is a constant also-ran these days, but he’ll hope to do better this year. Bardiani-CSF’s Sonny Colbrelli, Androni Giocattoli’s Manuel Belletti, Trek’s Boy van Poppel, Movistar’s Fran Ventoso, and AG2R’s Davide Appollonio can hold their own in the sprints as well.
A number of punchy, aggressive climber types are on the startlist looking for stages where they can go long. Bardiani’s Stefano Pirazzi, winner of last year’s KOM competition, will almost certainly go off the front as often as possible seeking another mountain jersey and breakaway wins. Androni Giocattoli’s Emanuele Sella will also be looking to repeat an aggressive Giro campaign.
Riders like Diego Ulissi and Julian Arredondo have the climbing chops to hang with the GC riders on at least a few stages but may not actually contend for the overall classification, and as such, they’re likely to have opportunities to hunt stage wins; other strong climbers who fall off the pace for GC will surely be doing the same. Also look for Cannondale’s Moreno Moser and Daniele Ratto, Neri Sottoli’s Simone Ponzi, Omega Pharma’s Wouter Poels, Europcar’s Yukiya Arashiro, and Astana’s Enrico Gasparotto, either on stages where punchy riders can match the GC men at a hilly finish or jump off the front of the pack.
Lastly, Adriano Malori of Movistar leads a small contingent of time trial specialists looking for success alongside the GC riders in both the team time trial and in Stage 12’s 41.9 kilometer chrono; squad mate Jonathan Castroviejo will be looking for the same. OGE sends a typically elite bunch to challenge in that discipline, with Luke Durbridge, Svein Tuft, Michael Hepburn, Brett Lancaster, and Cam Mayer all strong against the clock. Thomas de Gendt (3rd in the first time trial at last year’s Tour de France) may be focusing on the ITT as his main goal as well.
VeloHuman Favorites
General Classification
Winner: Nairo Quintana Podium: Joaquim Rodriguez, Domenico Pozzovivo Other Top Contenders: Cadel Evans, Michele Scarponi, Rigoberto Uran, Daniel Martin, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Rafal Majka, Nicolas Roche
Points Classification
Winner: Elia Viviani
I will be previewing every stage of the race here at VeloHuman.com, so if you’re looking for picks, make sure to bookmark the page; VeloHuman will bring you the stage profiles, favorites and outsiders for every day of racing. Now that you’ve read the overall race preview, check out the preview and favorites for the TTT on Stage 1! Also, there will be plenty more commentary and analysis on Twitter @VeloHuman. If you’re the type who can’t get enough cycling talk, you will be happy you followed. Hope to see you soon!
When the season is in high gear I’ll only be recapping the bigger races or the blocks of bigger races (ie., the Ardennes week), but there are over thirty WorldTour-less days ahead and the six day race that finished in Adelaide on Sunday is more than worthy of some analysis. As such, I’ve compiled a few takeaways from the big January event.
Any sort of retrospective on the Tour Down Under that aims to draw conclusions with meaningful predictive power ought to make a clear disclaimer before offering any emphatic endorsements of this rider or that for the new year: due to its position on the calendar, more than a month before the next race at the highest level of the sport, the Tour Down Under is not always a reliable test of rider form for a new season. Cameron Meyer, who won the 2011 edition, and Tom-Jelte Slagter, winner of the 2013 TDU, proceeded to have anonymous seasons after their bright victories in Australia to start the season. Simon Gerrans, on the other hand, went on to nab his first career Monument classic victory after he won the 2012 edition of the race. In other words, perhaps the top form exhibited again by Gerrans this week is a sign of future success (and he is targeting Milano-San Remo again this year), or perhaps it is a poor indicator of probable form months from now: the point is simply that one ought to be careful drawing too many conclusions from this race.
The Narrative, and Takeaways from the Race
Caveats made, on with the analysis. The GC-leading quartet of Simon Gerrans, Cadel Evans, Diego Ulissi, and Richie Porte were all particularly impressive in their 2014 WorldTour debuts. Only one second separated 1st and 2nd place, and only ten seconds separated 1st and 4th; all four won stages. Gerrans was a big favorite coming into the race (tipped by yours truly to win), and the other three were also included in VeloHuman’s pre-race top 10, so it can’t be said that there was all that much surprising at the very top of the General Classification. For what it’s worth, Gerrans looked on top form and displayed his trademark versatility, climbing with the best and sprinting for every possible second; should he maintain that form into the spring, the rest of the peloton had better watch out. Said versatility nabbed him the bonus seconds necessary to get the tiniest of legs up on Cadel Evans for the overall victory. Evans and Richie Porte both put in strong performances showing their own high level of form. Both are targeting later season Grand Tour success, and this certainly looks to have been a fine start; Porte looks to be aiming for success at the Giro this year, and after seeing potential main Giro Nairo Quintana take an emphatic win in the Tour de San Luis this week, the Sky rider will be happy to have had some success of his own in the meantime.
Of the foursome that quickly become the group of real contenders in this race, Diego Ulissi stands out to me as the rider whose performance is most worthy of a place in any analysis of this race’s “takeaways.” In 2011, the Italian put himself on the map with a Giro stage win, and he went on to pick up a number of smaller Italian races over the next year or so. Last year, he appeared to reach another level with a good showing in Paris-Nice and a stage win in the Tour of Poland before a hot October that saw him nab three Italian one-day race victories, including prestigious semi-classic Milano-Torino. However, so many of his successes have come either against weaker competition or at just one step below the highest level of the sport–and while his combination of explosive climbing and fast finishing have marked him out as one to watch, but he’s also disappeared on some of the larger stages. When he was not lighting up the Italian semi-classics, he was a DNF in the World Championship race and an also-ran at Il Lombardia. In the 2014 Tour Down Under, however, he went up against some of the sport’s very best and consistently performed at the elite level. He blew past Evans and Gerrans in Stage 2 after timing his sprint perfectly, and held onto his high place all the way through to the end, managing his podium spot with a total of four top 5 finishes in Australia, and it is that day-in, day-out consistency that he has been lacking. After this, I know I’ll be more confident tipping Ulissi to hold his own for more than a flash of brilliance in future races.
24 year old Nathan Haas proved to be perhaps the biggest surprise of the race. Although he won the 2011 Japan Cup Cycle Road Race with his impressive finishing kick and claimed 2nd in the 2012 Tour of Britain to Jonathan Tiernan-Locke, Haas has not had many chances to shine at the WorldTour level against the biggest names around. Not until this past week, at least. When pain from a pre-race injury proved to be the end of GC hopes for Rohan Dennis, Garmin-Sharp didn’t miss a beat, and Nathan Haas stepped right up to the plate. While he’s obviously showed ability in the past, I think it’s safe to say that not many people expected him to finish in the top 20 of every stage in the Tour Down Under, including a second place finish at the head of the bunch sprint behind Cadel Evans on stage 3. His consistent performance landed him 5th overall in the Tour. It will be interesting to see if Garmin quickly gives him another opportunity to follow up on his stellar trip home to Australia. Hopefully, we will have a chance to watch Haas building on this week again soon.
Geraint Thomas wasn’t really a surprise in the top 10, but it was nice to see him climbing at such a high level. As I said in the initial preview, I feel that much is said about Geraint Thomas despite a general lack of data, but his 8th place here, only a few seconds behind proven climber Robert Gesink, is another positive showing, especially given the fact the Sky was clearly riding for Richie Porte in this race. Daryl Impey, as well, wasn’t a big surprise in the top 10, but to land in that company while also riding in such successful support for Simon Gerrans is no small feat–Impey has really put together a fine last twelve months, and Orica-GreenEdge has surely taken note. Look to see Impey feature more as the main man for the Australian squad in races to come this year.
Though his legend has grown as he has built an amazing streak of consecutive Grand Tour appearances, Adam Hansen has only claimed a few major successes in his career (most notably, a Giro stage last year). However, the Australian nabbed the King of the Mountains jersey and a spot in the top 10 overall in the Tour Down Under with a noteworthy combination of the aggressive style necessary to pick up mountain points in a break and the endurance necessary to hang on in the bunch after being swept back into the peloton. His Lotto-Belisol squad, so often a sprint-first team, has got to be pleased with the showing, and they must be looking forward to the next race knowing that Hansen has what it takes to stay out front for the long haul, proudly displaying the Lotto-Belisol logo.
Speaking of Lotto-Belisol and sprints, there wasn’t really any question of competition in the two flat days at this year’s TDU. Andre Greipel blew away his opponents, and he did it largely thanks to his dominant leadout train. In stage 4, his leadout man Jurgen Roelandts was so strong that he finished 2nd behind Greipel himself and ahead of the designated sprinters of every other team in the race. Greipel’s stage 6 leadout was similarly impressive; from the moment he kicked it was clear the Gorilla would claim the day. Coming into the race, the sprints in this Tour looked to be a battle royale between Marcel Kittel and Andre Greipel, but Kittel was anonymous throughout the week, his only success in Australia a victory at the warm-up prelude, the People’s Choice Classic. At age 31, Greipel is still riding high, and his leadout only gets better with time.
Astana and Movistar both failed to land any of their very talented squads in the top 10, which must be a letdown for both teams; Francesco Gavazzi and Javier Moreno both started well only to be left in the dust when Cadel Evans forced serious selection on stage 3. Trek’s Frank Schleck also had a rather forgettable trip to Adelaide, unable to hang on when the going got tough. That Katusha’s squad of unknowns could place a man in the top 10 (chapeau to Egor Silin, by the way!) must not sit well with any of those teams.
Fortunately, everyone gets another shot at glory relatively soon, as, even with a fair bit of time until the next big race, the 2014 season is officially underway. The Tour Down Under gave us a first glimpse at many of the big names in the pro peloton and the early classics should be a good opportunity for guys like Simon Gerrans and Diego Ulissi to show of continued form. Don’t forget about races like the Volta ao Algarve and the Tour Méditerranéen Cycliste Professionnel during the month and a half long drought before the next WorldTour race, Paris-Nice.
The long offseason break is finally coming to an end. The WorldTour peloton is getting clipped back in at the 2014 Santos Tour Down Under this Tuesday in Nuriootpa (and a sizeable group is also gearing up for the Tour de San Luis in Argentina instead). While the cyclocross season draws to its conclusion in the frigid Northern Hemisphere, the WorldTour kicks off under the hot Australian sun. Since we last watched the biggest names in the sport hunting for success on the road, the cycling world has seen a few changes, as it does every year. Some big names have moved to new teams. A few new faces will make appearances at the highest level, where others have hung up the proverbial cleats. Vacansoleil and Euskaltel will be conspicuously absent from the roads Down Under, their long tenures in the pro ranks now complete. Meanwhile, Europcar has been elevated to the top level, guaranteeing that we’ll be seeing a lot more of the French squad. After so many dull days waiting for the next event, the ever popular Tour Down Under will finally offer the year’s first in-competition look at the 2014 WorldTour peloton.
The six-stage race has gotten hillier and hillier over the past few years; there was a time when star sprinter Andre Greipel could win the General Classification (he did, twice), but that time is probably past. While there are no real mountains along the road to the finish line in Adelaide, there are several steep climbs that will force selection before the week is done.
All-rounder Roundup
With almost two months until the next race on the WorldTour calendar, the Tour Down Under is always a race full of uncertainty–it’s hard to tell who is on form this early in the season. Only a handful of competitions have been held thus far in the year, leaving little data worth utilizing for prediction. Fortunately, a number of the race’s biggest stars just engaged in a clash of Aussie Titans at the Australian National Championship title last week. The collection of high profile names didn’t disappoint: unsurprisingly, at the end of the day it was Simon Gerrans, Cadel Evans, and Richie Porte vying for the finish line. Gerrans, whose burst has nabbed him so many wins over his career, was easily the fastest man to the line, leaving elder statesman Cadel Evans to settle for runner-up and Porte in third. Fresh off their perfomances in Nationals, the trio of Aussie riders are all numbered among the favorites for this week’s Tour Down Under, with new champion Gerrans at the head of the line.
Even had he not just shown his current condition, Gerrans would have the make up to be considered a major contender in this race. Not only has he won it twice already, in 2006 and 2012, but the race suits him more and more these days as short, steep climbs are injected to add excitement to the contest. The former Milan-San Remo winner has explosiveness in spades, and we’re sure to see it on Corkscrew Hill in stage 3 and Old Willunga Hill in stage 5. Having demonstrated his form, Gerrans is the man to beat in his home tour, and it doesn’t hurt that he’ll have some of Oz’s finest pros backing him. He can rely on the likes of Daryl Impey and Simon Clarke as stellar support (or second choices if need be) when the going gets tough.
Cadel Evans, for one, won’t be going down without a fight. He still feels he has a lot left in the tank and he’ll want to use this opportunity to prove it. He may not have the punch of Gerrans, but he’s no slouch for quick speed, he’s clearly in form, and he’ll have a nice supporting cast with last year’s 5th place finisher in this event, Ben Hermans, at his side. Richie Porte, meanwhile, heads into 2014 with the loftiest ambitions of his career, setting his sights on a Grand Tour victory and hoping to claim a spot among the sport’s top stage racers. Grand Tour season is a long way off, but Porte looked good at Nationals. He doesn’t have the explosiveness or finishing move of his aforementioned compatriots, but he’s a determined contender, and he’s also quite a bit younger. Sky also has Geraint Thomas, 3rd in last year’s edition, as a second card to play, though the bumps in the road may not quite suit his skillset; still he’s a multi-talented, aggressive rider who has shown a knack for success here,and his fast finish could be vital in a race for bonus seconds. Bernie Eisel and Ian Stannard are along for support as well.
Rohan Dennis might have been another high finisher in last weeks Australian Nationals, but he caught a bit of misfortune in the run-up to the race, crashing while time trialing. The incident did not leave him seriously injured, but it did cause him a fair bit of pain from which he is still recovering. The young all-rounder from Garmin-Sharp pulled out of the champs race but has had more time to recover since then, and he showed a very versatile array of skills in 2013. Depending on how well he has healed up, Dennis could pose a major challenge to his more established countrymen in the GC competition–he was 5th in the 2012 edition when he was just 21 years old, and he’s shown serious improvement on all levels of his game since then.
However, a second round of Australian Nationals this race is not; it’s a WorldTour competition, and it draws serious world-class, international talent. There will be plenty of challengers, familiar and not-so-familiar, hungry to pick up the first big race of the year far from home. Last year’s winner Tom-Jelte Slagter will be absent from the startline, so a repeat victory is not in the cards for him. His former team Belkin sends one of its top talents to pick up the slack in Robert Gesink. An up-and-down 2013 ended on a rather high note when Gesink redeemed his lackluster Giro d’Italia with a surprise win in Quebec, a top 10 in Lombardy and another top 10 in the Tour of Beijing. He showed a greatly improved finishing kick in his late season success, and with Jack Bobridge (the 5th place finisher in last week’s Nationals) and two other Aussies as well as workhorse Stef Clement for backup, Gesink could be a force to be reckoned with.
Few teams are coming to this race as stacked as Movistar, which is probably a sentence that can apply to most of their races these days. The Tour Down Under squad, however, does not include the team’s two biggest names, Nairo Quintana and Alejandro Valverde. Instead, the group is composed of a bevy of versatile riders hungry for a chance at glory while their more well-known teammates are elsewhere. For the rest of the year, Javier Moreno will likely ride in support of said teammates, but January in Australia is the time and place for Javier Moreno to make his mark on the WorldTour. He was runner-up and King of the Mountains in the 2013 edition and 8th the year before that, and he’ll have a powerful team backing him. I’m not sure I see him standing atop the podium, but another top 10 finish seems attainable. JJ Rojas may focus more on nabbing single stages, but it’s possible that he might aim for GC as well. Giovanni Visconti could have been another strong option in this race, but he unfortunately suffered a broken leg this weekend and will be sidelined for weeks while he recovers.
I see Jan Bakelants, riding at the head of new team Omega Pharma-Quick Step, as one of the most dangerous challengers in this race. 6th here in 2012, Bakelants really came into his own in 2013, with a stage win in the Tour de France, top 10s in the Eneco Tour and the Tour of Beijing, and a one day victory at the Grand Prix de Wallonie. In all of these events, he earned his success with strong climbing ability and a fast finish, which, as has already been mentioned, will be necessary to challenge for GC here. Also boasting top-shelf climbing punch and a fast finish, and also coming off a career year, Lampre’s Diego Ulissi is the other non-Aussie I consider among the most likely contenders in this race. Ulissi does have a habit of disappearing in big races (late last year he was a non-factor through most of the Vuelta, in the World Championship Road Race, and in Il Lombardia, while claiming a string of fantastic victories in one-day Italian races during the very same time period), but he’s shown elite talent. Having proven himself as a force to be reckoned with last year, he’ll be the guy for Lampre in this and many other races this year, and it will be interesting to see how he handles the spotlight.
Astana is another team full of talented riders who will have a rare chance to be more than domestiques. Enrico Gasparotto, Andriy Grivko, Francesco Gavazzi, and Lieuwe Westra are all capable contenders. Gasparotto in particular has quietly established himself as a rider to watch on the punchy climbs, and Grivko finished last year with high placings in the World Championship Race and the Eneco Tour thanks to a similar skillset. Only Orica-GreenEdge can rival Astana in terms of the number of viable GC contenders at the Tour Down Under.
To name a few others: Saxo-Tinkoff’s Rory Sutherland, Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Roelandts, Giant-Shimano’s Simon Geschke, AG2R’s Maxime Bouet, Cannondale’s up-and-comer from New Zealand George Bennett, FDJ’s Jussi Veikkanen and Kenny Elissonde, and, of course, Trek’s Frank Schleck, back to racing after his doping suspension–there’s no telling what sort of form he’s on, but the podium finisher in the 2011 Tour de France is obviously a strong candidate for GC if he has his legs. That’s the story behind most of these predictions really; fortunately, the wait to find out what state our contenders are in is almost over.
Stagehunters
The opportunities for sprinters may be lessened in recent editions of this race, but that hasn’t stopped two of the world’s big three pure sprinters from making the trip. Andre Greipel has had a great deal of success in his many trips Down Under, and his always-effective leadout train is with him, but they’ll have their hands full against Marcel Kittel and his own supporting cast. Stages 4 and 6, with flat run-ins to the finish, are the most likely to see their battle royale.
Other fast men hoping to pick up stage wins include Elia Viviani of Cannondale, the JJs Rojas and Lobato of Movistar, the Van Poppel brothers on their new team, Trek Factory Racing, Michael Matthews and Matthew Goss of Orica-GreenEdge, Andrew Fenn and Mark Renshaw of OPQS, Garmin-Sharp’s Steele von Hoff, Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari, and Caleb Ewan of UniSA-Australia, to name a few. Given the importance of explosiveness in the Tour Down Under GC battle, many of those mentioned as ochre jersey hopefuls could just as easily vie for stage victories.
Uncertainty is the name of the game in the Santos Tour Down Under, guaranteeing surprises every year (Tom-Jelte Slagter was certainly a surprise winner in 2013). As the curtain opens on the 2014 season, we can expect the unexpected in Australia–while the many big names in attendance are sure to deliver fireworks, this race tends to bring new names to the fore as well, and what better way to start a new year than with new faces looking to make their mark at the sport’s highest level.
VeloHuman Predictions
General Classification Winner
Simon Gerrans
GC Podium
Richie Porte, Jan Bakelants
GC Top 10
Diego Ulissi, Cadel Evans, Javier Moreno, Robert Gesink, Enrico Gasparotto, Rohan Dennis, Geraint Thomas
