Episode 19: Tour de France 2015 Show, Part III With only five stages left in the Tour de France, this one’s for all the marbles. The Recon Ride looks back at the last week of racing, and previews the Alpine stages and the Paris finale of the 2015 Tour.
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The biggest race of the year is just five stages from completion. Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm analyze the current race situation and the GC picture, and talk favorites and outsiders for the final five stages of the 2015 Tour. CyclingTips news editor Shane Stokes, on the ground at the race, joins the show to offer an insider perspective on cycling’s main event.
Greg Van Avermaet snagged a hilltop victory in the Tour’s 13th stage, and more hills await on Stage 14. The day opens with 44 kilometers of roads that slope gently upward, with a short Cat. 4 climb along the way. Then comes a fast descent into a very long (about 80 kilometers) stretch of flat roads, which could see the peloton taking a relatively leisurely approach after several tough days on the bike. With about 40km to go in the stage, things get bumpy again. First comes the Cat. 2 Côte de Sauveterre, 9km at 6%. After the downhill and then a short flat section comes the Cat. 4 Côte de Chabrits, followed by another downhill into the final climb. The Cat. 2 Côte de la Croix Neuve, 3km at 10.1%, is short but extremely challenging test.
Before the riders reach the Stage 14 finish line in Mende, they’ll have to overcome the steep Côte de la Croix Neuve. Anyone feeling a bit below 100% will be found out quickly on the double-digit gradient.
It’s steep throughout, especially near the midway point. From the top of the climb it’s about 1.5km of flat to the finish, with a sharp right-hander and then a hard left on the way to the line.
Stage 14 will be yet another breakaway-friendly stage—an up-and-down finale and a late climb that is far too hard for the sprinters are typically good ingredients for a successful long-range move. Still, this final climb might even be hard enough to inspire the GC teams to set up a high pace to set up a late battle. If the pack fights it out for the win, only the strongest climbers will be able to survive the Côte de la Croix Neuve to be in the mix for a stage win via either a move on the steep stuff or a very reduced sprint. The last time the Tour finished here, Joaquim Rodríguez, Alberto Contador, and Alexandre Vinokourov were the first three riders across the line. The potential breakaway scenario (which looks to be about a 50/50 proposition) will give the less Alpine-inclined riders a better shot at stage success, but strong climbing legs will still be very important on a final climb with an average gradient over 10%.
Joaquim Rodríguez will be among the top favorites in this explosive finale if he’s in the lead group, and the fact that he’s well behind on GC and now potentially in the hunt for breakaway wins makes him all the more dangerous. The profile of the majority of the stage (the relatively easy first 140 kilometers, that is) isn’t one that stands out as a likely jumping off point for a Purito breakaway, however, so it’s not a given that he’ll get up the road. He’s a favorite, but there are so many other factors at play on this stage besides the puncheur-friendly finish that make it impossible to name anyone a no-doubt contender.
Given his performances so far, Alexis Vuillermoz will be a rider to watch closely on Stage 14. The extreme gradient of the final climb suits him very well, and he’s especially dangerous given his ability to get up the road, as he’s not a GC threat. Teammates Romain Bardet and Jan Bakelants might be hoping to get involved too.
Dan Martin did not perform as well as expected on Stage 13 but he could bounce back for a bid at Stage 14 success. The finale is probably a bit hard for him against the top GC favorites but he’ll have a shot from the break. Teammate Ryder Hesjedal will likely be on the lookout for opportunities to get into the breakaway mix as well.
Pierre Rolland tends to target stages with bumpier profiles throughout for his long-range moves, but a finale with plenty of launching pads for a classic Rolland attack make him impossible to count out. Compatriot and Europcar teammate Thomas Voeckler will also have a shot if he can get into the day’s breakaway.
Michal Kwiatkowski, Adam Yates, Rafael Valls, Jakob Fuglsang, Rafal Majka, and Julián Arredondo are other strong long-range candidates for Stage 14.
Of the riders whose stage hopes rest within the pack, Alejandro Valverde is certainly among the favorites—the steep late climb will drop all the non-elite ascenders from contention, and the flat finish will give Valverde a chance to use his top-notch sprint. His biggest obstacle will be reining in the inevitable attacks from his rivals. This may be only a Cat. 2, but it’s steep enough that it could spur Chris Froome into action—he was very strong on the Mur de Huy and this longer trip up suits him even more. Despite his firm hold on the yellow jersey, Froome has not seemed particularly interested in allowing the other riders at the top of the GC leaderboard opportunities to shorten the gap. Valverde’s teammate Nairo Quintana and the always dangerous Alberto Contador will also be in the mix if this comes down a GC battle.
Geraint Thomas, Robert Gesink, Bauke Mollema, Tony Gallopin, and Greg Van Avermaet (who is climbing better than ever) will be hoping to hold on on the steep stuff for a potential reduced sprint on the short section of flat that precedes the finish line. The Côte de Sauveterre is probably too hard for Peter Sagan, but don’t count him out entirely—despite his inability to win a stage so far in the Tour, he’s on great form at the moment.
Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 14.
With Rafal Majka’s stage victory in Cauterets, the Tour de France is two thirds of the way through a hard stretch of climbing days in the Pyrenees. Stage 12 should provide a thrilling Pyrenean finale. After 40 easy kilometers to start, it’s up and down all the way to the line. First up is the steep Col de Portet-d’Aspet, 4.3 kilometers at a vicious 9.7%. For a Cat. 2, it will be an unpleasant way to kick off what is set to be a very difficult day. From the top it’s about 20km of downhill to the foot of the Cat. 1 Col de la Core, 14.1km at 5.7%. It’s a climb that starts out relatively easy, but the final 8 kilometers are a bit more difficult, steadily above 6%. The descent from the summit runs to the town of Oust, where the road kicks up gently again on the way to the official start of the Cat. 1 Port de Lers climb, 12.9km at a 6% average gradient.
A very long descent follows before things flatten out for a short stretch before the road angles upward sharply—the Plateau de Beille finishing climb is one of the hardest challenges the riders will face in the Tour de France. 15.8 kilometers at 7.9%, it’s a long, steep trip up. It’s a mostly steady climb at least, but that won’t provide much comfort seeing as the gradient is high the entire way up, except at the very top where things flatten out in the final run to the line.
It may not have the name recognition of Stage 11’s Tourmalet, but Stage 12’s Plateau de Beille climb is an extremely difficult mountain test.
With so many vertical meters to overcome on the day and a finishing climb like the Plateau de Beille, Stage 12 is one for the pure climbing talents. There have already been plenty of testing days so far in this Tour de France of course, but there really isn’t any margin for weakness on Stage 12, which will find out those lacking fitness early, and make them pay all the way to the finish.
The profile should offer the breakaway a chance at success, and many of the likely escape candidates kept their powder dry on Stage 11; a strong enough group of aggressors has a chance at success here. However, this is the final day of high mountain racing for a little while, which will likely inspire hostilities among the GC types. What’s more, the final climb will require a significant gap for the breakaway to outlast any determined chasers. A breakaway of less-than-elite climbers isn’t likely to have much of a chance, and even one made up of top talents is going to have a hard time staying clear.
Chris Froome is far and away the strongest climber in the race right now, and he happens to enjoy the support of the strongest team as well. If he wants this stage, it’s hard to see anyone stopping him. The question is whether he’ll put in the effort with nearly 3 minutes of an advantage over his nearest rivals. He didn’t shy away from padding his GC lead in the 2013 Tour even after a dominant Stage 8 win, but there is no guarantee he’ll stick to that strategy here. Sky could also give Richie Porte or Geraint Thomas a chance to ride for a stage victory if Froome’s top lieutenants are still with him near the summit finish.
Nairo Quintana looked better on Stage 10 than he has all race, notching a 3rd-place finish on the stage, and he should continue to improve after an early bout with illness. At his best, he is probably one of the few riders capable of matching Froome on a finish like this. He will benefit from having a teammate high up on GC: Movistar’s one-two punch is a deadly weapon in this Tour, and the riders in dark blue will need to play all their cards if they want any hope at the Tour GC title now that Froome is already so far ahead—watch out for Alejandro Valverde here too.
Robert Gesink was surprisingly the 4th best finisher on Stage 10. If he can hold on with the top GC riders all the way up to the top of the finishing climb, he’s not bad in a reduced uphill sprint (his surprise win in the GP Québec in 2013 can attest to that). Compatriot Bauke Mollema made a nice jump from the pack to pick up a few seconds on Stage 11—he too has a nice finishing move and could get in the mix on Stage 12.
Alberto Contador is clearly not at his strongest in this Tour on the heels of his Giro win, but he can’t be counted out on an HC-rated summit finish. Tejay van Garderen was not really in with a chance at the stage victory on Stage 10’s climb to the line, but he rode well and could put in a good performance on Stage 12 if the pace is kept relatively steady in the finale.
Pierre Rolland finished ahead of Contador and van Garderen both on Stage 10, and he was right with the GC men on Stage 11. Unlike the aforementioned riders, high on the General Classification, Rolland is over 13 minutes down on Chris Froome on the overall leaderboard. If he wants to go for this from afar, he should be given a chance. He kept his breakaway powder dry on Stage 11, and while it’s always a challenge predicting who will get into the long-range moves, if Rolland can get some space on Stage 12 he’ll be a top favorite.
Rafal Majka didn’t keep any powder dry on Stage 11, riding all the way to a stage victory, but he looks to be on sharp form right now and could go for another long one here.
Joaquim Rodríguez lost a big chunk of time on Stage 11 and is not even on the fringes of the GC conversation anymore. It’s hard to say what that means for his form. If he’s only a little off of 100%, he could just be saving up for a big mountain push, so don’t count him out on this stage which would seem to suit his skillset.
Adam Yates, Jakob Fuglsang, Rafael Valls, Thibaut Pinot, Ryder Hesjedal, Dan Martin, Alexis Vuillermoz, Louis Meintjes, and Romain Bardet are others on the very long list of riders whose stage victory chances are boosted by the fact that they’ll probably be given some breathing room to go on the attack from far out on Stage 12.
VeloHuman Stage 12 Favorites
1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Pierre Rolland
Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 12.
The Tour’s first rest day gave the peloton an opportunity to get some much-needed time off (and it gave the Recon Ride time to record the second of three Tour de France podcast episodes, which includes plenty of race analysis worth listening to!), but the mountains of Stage 10, the first real climbs of the race, will be a rude awakening for the bunch.
The trip from Tarbes to La Pierre-Saint-Martin in the Pyrenees will be a relatively short one at 167 total kilometers. The first 140 of those kilometers won’t offer much in the way of challenging topography—three Cat. 4 climbs dot the profile along the way from the start of the stage to the foot of the final climb.
That final climb will be the hardest uphill test so far in this Tour de France. La Pierre-Saint-Martin is a 15.3-kilometer ascent at an average gradient of 7.4%. The most difficult section comes about half-way through, a 4km stretch at over 9%. Then things ease off a bit, before another quick steep section near the summit, where things even out again close to the line.
The La Pierre-Saint-Martin finale of Stage 10 will likely be the first real GC showdown of the 2015 Tour.
With two more tough mountain days to follow, Stage 10 could have some riders planning to take things easy. Expect the early breakaway to open up a big advantage over the first hundred kilometers. Plus, July 14th is Bastille Day—the many French riders in the peloton will be more motivated than ever to get some TV time at the head of the race, and it could be a crowded fight to be in the day’s big move. On the other hand, the bunch will probably amp up the pace on the flat stretch that leads into the foot of the last climb, and then the challenging finale will likely see any riders up the road losing a lot of time to a chasing pack. In short, the breakaway has a shot here, but it will be a challenge holding off the peloton.
The difficulty of this climb to the finish will likely bring out the top climbers in the race. Chris Froome, enjoying the GC lead at the moment, certainly fits that description. Froome built his 2013 victory on a dominant early-stage performance, and could be looking to do the same here. His impressive team should put him into a good position to strike in the finale, if he is so inclined—he does already have the yellow jersey though, and that could inspire him to be a bit more conservative, allowing the others to do the attacking.
Nairo Quintana has not been at his best so far in the Tour, but he should be starting to come good at this point in the race, especially after a rest day. Almost 2 minutes down on GC, Quintana may be given a bit of breathing room by the other favorites if he gets up the road—and even if his GC rivals aren’t inclined to let him up the road, it may not make much of a difference to one of the world’s best climbers. Quintana’s teammate Alejandro Valverde is also an obvious candidate to make something happen on Stage 10.
Alberto Contador’s ability to hang with the top climbers in his race after a tough Giro has been a major question mark so far. After Stage 10, we’ll have some answers. Based on what he’s shown up to this point, I’m expecting Contador to be able be in the mix, but would be surprised if he’s among the very top finishers on the stage. This is even truer for Vincenzo Nibali who struggled on Stage 8.
Joaquim Rodríguez is in excellent form at the moment. He might be looking to launch a move on the steeper sections of the final climb. Alternatively, if he’s able to stay at the front of the race, he’ll be a favorite in a potential sprint to the line at the top of the climb.
Tejay van Garderen was one of the few riders in Chris Froome’s stratosphere in the Dauphiné. He’s climbing better than ever this season, and has a strong support squad around him. If this comes down to a GC battle on the slopes of the final climb, expect van Garderen to be in the mix. Unfortunately for van Garderen, Froome is eyeing him closely given his current position on GC, and that will make it hard for him to get clear in the finale.
Thibaut Pinot will be a rider to watch on France’s National Holiday. He’s no longer much of a GC threat, but the form has certainly been there this year—that makes him a dangerous rider who could try to go for a long one. Compatriots Romain Bardet and Warren Barguil could also look for opportunities to get clear as well.
Alexis Vuillermoz has put in some big rides on tough mountain stages recently and could be in the mix either with an early attack or a late one. Pierre Rolland has not looked his usual self so far in the Tour, but he could bounce back in a breakaway here. Ryder Hesjedal, Julian Arredondo, Adam Yates, Louis Meintjes, and Rafal Majka are other riders to keep an eye on in a potential long-range move scenario.
Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 10.
The 2015 Tour de France is about to get underway, with the peloton set for a Dutch Grand Départ in the Netherlands this weekend. A quick time trial and then a few days of Classics-style racing will give way to several days for the sprinters and more versatile stagehunters before a team time trial and then some very challenging mountain stages to really spark competition among the overall favorites. With a route built to encourage uphill battles and multiple riders looking to have legitimate chances of coming away with the overall win, this year’s edition of the sport’s biggest event is set to be an excellent showdown, and with all the action just around the corner, it’s time for VeloHuman’s overall Tour de France preview.
The Route
The Tour kicks off with a short, flat ITT in the Netherlands (in the university town of Utrecht, to be exact). Then comes another day on Dutch soil, a flat road stage, followed by a trip to Belgium’s challenging Mur de Huy on Stage 3. Stage 4 will stick with the Classics theme, challenging the peloton with several stretches of cobbles in between start and finish.
Stage 4: Seraing › Cambrai (223.5km) – Several stretches of cobbles could inject some nervousness into the Tour de France peloton early on in the race.
Things get a bit more traditional after that. Stages 5 through 8 look friendly for the fast finishers or those riders fortunate and skilled enough to stick long breakaways. Stage 9 is a medium-length team time trial that will open up a few time gaps on the General Classification, and it’s followed by three high mountain stages certain to see plenty more GC action.
Stage 11: Pau › Cauterets (188km) – A visit to the Tourmalet, during a day with five other categorized climbs on the menu as well, will make Stage 11 a tough Week 2 test.
The bumpy profiles of Stages 13 through 16 will keep the GC riders on their toes and, at least in terms of stage honors, will likely favor the more well-rounded fast finishers and aggressive types. Then come the serious mountain tests likely to decide the Tour de France: a very difficult Stage 17, a tough Stage 18, and an extremely challenging one-two punch of mountaintop finishes on Stages 19 and 20.
Stage 20: Modane Valfréjus › Alpe d’Huez (110.5km) – The Tour’s short but vicious penultimate stage should provide a thrilling conclusion to the GC battle on the slopes of the Alpe d’Huez.
The Alpe d’Huez finale of Stage 20 will make for a great final GC battleground in the 2015 Tour de France, especially at the end of a day packed with climbing. The race will conclude in its usual style with a sprinter-friendly Stage 21 in Paris.
All told, it’s a climber-friendly route, with far fewer total kilometers of individual time trialing than recent years have seen. Versatility will still be important, however, as cobblestones, Low Country weather, plenty of short steep climbs, and technical descents will challenge the yellow jersey hopefuls to survive and thrive on more than just the long Alpine uphill slogs.
The General Classification Contenders
This year’s GC battle is all about cycling’s “Big Four” GC riders: Chris Froome, Alberto Contador, Vincenzo Nibali, and Nairo Quintana. Only Quintana is without at least one Tour de France victory on his record, but his runner-up performance in 2013 and his Giro win in 2014 shine brightly all the same. With all four seemingly on form and healthy, it should be quite a showdown. Each rider has factors weighing for and against favorite status.
At least in VeloHuman’s perspective, Chris Froome, recently victorious in the Critérium du Dauphiné, looks to be the slight favorite. The last time he stayed healthy throughout the Tour de France, he dominated the field. His 2015 campaign has not been as steady as that incredible 2013, but he looked very strong last month in the Dauphiné, and he has an unbelievable supporting cast with the likes of Richie Porte, Leopold König, Wout Poels, and Nicolas Roche, among others. Sky can put the pressure on early with so many weapons, and Froome’s machine-like endurance should keep his legs powering along late in the race. For Froome, a parcours light on time trials might seem like a less ideal scenario, but the 30-year-old stage racer has actually been underwhelming against the clock lately, meanwhile putting in some very strong climbing rides so far this year. To win, however, he’ll need to overcome the fierce competition of his rivals, whom he has not been able to put away as easily in recent months as he did back when he last won the Tour.
Alberto Contador certainly has the talent at peak ability to take on Froome in this race, as his terrific 2014 Vuelta victory suggested. But his Giro participation, excellent though his winning performance was, will almost certainly have taken something out of him. The Giro-Tour double is an extremely hard feat to accomplish. Contador may have a better chance of pulling it off than anyone in the sport, but that still might not be enough. A TT-light route won’t help him—he’s certainly better against the clock than Quintana and Nibali, but that won’t be of use here. Instead, he’ll need to rely on his ability to get up the vicious climbs in the final week to win this race, and that might be a lot to ask after a prior GT win already on the season. In any case, strong supporters like Rafal Majka and Roman Kreuziger will be valuable to Contador’s attempt to beat the odds and the other favorites.
Nairo Quintana should be coming in fresh, and this is the perfect route for him. He’s not a great time trialist, but that won’t hold him back with less than 15km against the clock solo—what’s more, Movistar typically fields a strong TTT squad, making the TTT a place where the young Colombian might actually be able to pick up time on his rivals. After that he’ll have plenty of opportunities to put his terrific climbing skills on display. The last time Quintana and Froome went up against each other in a full Grand Tour, Froome emerged victorious, but Quintana has gotten older and stronger since then, and should be a very strong contender for the overall. Alejandro Valverde offers Movistar a powerful card to play as well—and don’t be surprised if he has his own GC ambitions in this race too.
Despite winning last year’s Tour de France, Vincenzo Nibali will face an uphill battle for a repeat victory. His Tour win was impressive, for sure, but with neither Froome nor Contador surviving into the final week (and Quintana opting to race elsewhere that year), it’s hard to judge Nibali against the gold standard of his top rivals. He was far stronger than everyone else still in the race by the final mountain stages of the 2014 Tour, but that wasn’t really all that unexpected. Still, this is a good route for him, and he has a very complete team around him (which includes stalwart lieutenant Jakob Fuglsang) to help him pursue his second Tour win.
Outside of that quartet of top favorites, it’s hard to see anyone else really challenging for the overall win, but there are a few strong outsiders. Fresh off his Dauphiné win, Tejay van Garderen looks better than ever on the climbs, and he’ll have BMC’s worlds-winning TTT squad to put him into a good position early on in the race. Thibaut Pinot won high mountain stages in both the Tour de Romandie and the Tour de Suisse, and the lack of ITT mileage favors his skillset. Rui Costa has had a strong year, and has been an elite one-week racer for some time, despite never really putting it together across three weeks to land a big Grand Tour result—this could be his year to finally string together several good days. Joaquim Rodríguez has run a bit hot and cold in 2015, but he was untouchable in País Vasco; this parcours suits his abilities quite well and that could help him battle it out for a big result. Bauke Mollema should also like the overall route (and the Dutch start), and he has shown flashes of impressive form this year.
AG2R’s one-two punch of Jean-Christophe Peraud and Romain Bardet, and Cannondale-Garmin’s one-two-three punch of Andrew Talansky, Ryder Hesjedal, and Dan Martin could make things interesting. The EQS duo of Michal Kwiatkowski and Rigoberto Urán, IAM’s Mathias Frank, Europcar’s Pierre Rolland, LottoNL’s Wilco Kelderman, and Giant-Alpecin’s Warren Barguil are among those who will hope to battle for big results from the fringes of the GC conversation.
The Stagehunters
With Marcel Kittel out of the Tour de France this year, Mark Cavendish looks to be the class of the field in the pure speed department in this race, but there are plenty of strong riders behind him who will hope to nab stage wins as well, especially on some of the bumpier stages where Cav might struggle. André Greipel, at his best, should be able to mix it up with Cavendish on the pure flats. The likes of Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb, Nacer Bouhanni, Arnaud Demaré, Michael Matthews, and, of course, Peter Sagan, will also try to be in the conversation, with the tougher days potentially providing opportunities for some of them to battle it out without Cavendish in the conversation. John Degenkolb, in particular, could surprise—as versatile as he is, he’s also just plain fast in a sprint. With Giant-Alpecin’s full support thanks to the absence of Marcel Kittel, Degenkolb could rack up the results and maybe even a strong green jersey bid. Sam Bennett, Bryan Coquard, and MTN-Qhubeka’s speedy pair of Tyler Farrar and an in-form Edvald Boasson Hagen are others to watch in the sprints.
A generous helping of intermediate stages will likely see the peloton’s punchy climbers and long-range specialists hunting for multiple stage victories. Watch out for the likes of OGE’s Simon Gerrans and Michael Albasini, BMC’s Philippe Gilbert and Greg Van Avermaet, Trek’s Julian Arredondo, and Lotto-Soudal’s Tony Gallopin (among many others) to keep things interesting on the bumpier days. Lastly, a note about the very strong field of TT specialists in attendance: there may be only one (short) ITT in the Tour, but a chance to wear yellow is on the line and the impressive time trialing quartet of Tony Martin, Fabian Cancellara, Tom Dumoulin, and Adriano Malori should be in the mix with a few of the aforementioned GC contenders for the honor of a stint in the yellow jersey early on in the year.
VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Race Favorites
GC Winner: Chris Froome Podium: Nairo Quintana, Alberto Contador Other Top Contenders: Vincenzo Nibali, Tejay van Garderen, Thibaut Pinot, Joaquim Rodríguez, Rui Costa, Romain Bardet, Alejandro Valverde
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for plenty more analysis, and check back soon for the preview of the first stage of the race—VeloHuman will be previewing every individual stage of the 2015 Tour. The preview of Stage 1 is already online! Also, don’t miss the Recon Ride’s three Tour de France podcasts. The first episode is available here!
Episode 17: Tour de France 2015 Show, Part I Cycling’s main event is almost here. The Recon Ride takes a look at the route, the favorites, and the big storylines of the 2015 Tour de France.
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With the biggest race of the year around the corner, Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm and Dane Cash of VeloHuman join forces to present the first of three Recon Ride Tour de France episodes.
