Tag: Chris Froome

Critérium du Dauphiné 2015 Preview

The Dauphiné marks the arrival of “Tour de France season,” drawing an always impressive startlist of top Tour talent hoping for a final tuneup before La Grande Boucle. The big names and mountainous parcours should make this year’s edition of the race a worthwhile attraction.

The Route

The 2015 Dauphiné route offers a healthy dose of difficult climbs. The only stage without a categorized climb is the TTT, and even that has some challenges.

The race kicks off with a bumpy stage 1 likely to favor a punchier rider, with eight categorized climbs, small though they may be, on the day. Stage 2 does have a Cat. 1 challenge on the menu, but a long flat finale could favor the sprinters. The Stage 3 TTT will likely have serious GC implications. 24.5 kilometers is long enough to open the sort of gaps that will have an impact in a one-week race, especially given a long, slightly uphill stretch in the second half of the stage.

Stage 4 will be a day for the sprinters or more versatile fast-finishers before the GC riders come to the fore again on Stage 5, which closes out with a one-two punch of categorized climbs. Stage 6 is another day that may have a GC impact, closing out with a Category 3 climb.

Stage 7 will probably be the most decisive stage of the 2015 Critérium du Dauphiné. After 30 flat kilometers, it’s up and down the rest of the way, with a total of five Cat. 1s along the route, including the summit finish.

Stage 7: Montmélian › Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc (155km) – A succession of difficult climbs will likely make Stage 7 the Dauphiné’s most hotly contested GC battleground.

None of the climbs are all that brutal by themselves but altogether they will provide plenty of launching pads for the uphill specialists. Stage 8 closes out the race with another Category 1 summit finish at Modane Valfréujs.

The General Classification Contenders

Two of cycling’s so-called “Big Four” will garner the most attention coming into the race: Chris Froome and Vincenzo Nibali. Froome has won the race before, the year he won the Tour de France, and he may be hoping to replicate his performance from 2013, where he came into the Tour riding high on the back of strong performances in the one-weekers. He’s had a decent, though not great, year so far, and this is an opportunity to get on track with a big success for his Tour bid this year. At his best, Froome is almost unstoppable, and he should be motivated to be close to his best here. The team trial suits Sky well. Nicolas Roche and Wout Poels are among Froome’s many strong teammates in attendance who will be valuable supporters or even potential alternatives should the need arise.

Vincenzo Nibali’s path to Tour de France victory was a bit different from Froome’s—the Italian all-rounder did not look nearly as strong in the run-up to the 2014 Tour, but peaked at the right time in July. If he’s looking to replicate that approach, he might not be quite at 100% here. If he’s gunning for victory though, he should love the climber-friendly profile, and Astana’s TTT squad looks strong too. This is a great parcours for Nibali, without any individual time trial to potentially set him back against his more chrono-adept rivals—motivation may be the key factor in determining how well he performs.

Last year’s winner Andrew Talansky was one of the most surprising winners of a WorldTour race all year, grabbing the Critérium du Dauphiné yellow jersey with a brilliant breakaway move on the final stage. The lack of a time trial in this year’s edition does not suit Talansky, the USA’s new national time trial champion, but with all of these climbs, the opportunities are there for plenty of action should he be hoping to get aggressive again this year. Teammate Daniel Martin is another option—individual time trials often tank his chances in stage races, and the absence of one here will make this an attractive event for him.

Alejandro Valverde will love the Dauphiné parcours. He’s been cycling’s most successful rider so far this season, landing on podiums almost at will, and he should be motivated to prove himself ready for the Tour with Nairo Quintana elsewhere. Movistar brings a strong team that includes Beñat Intxausti, who was great in the Giro.

Tejay van Garderen has looked great at times this season, and mediocre at other times. With the Tour on the horizon, though, he should be in strong form in this race, and with the strength of BMC’s world champion TTT squad, he should be set up for success. Van Garderen has focused on improving as a pure climber recently and that will come in handy here.

Despite a disappointing Ardennes campaign, Joaquim Rodríguez has shown flashes of brilliance in 2015. If he rides here like he did in País Vasco, he’ll be difficult to beat, especially with these sorts of climbs—the uphill challenges in the Dauphiné are many, but none of them are of the brutal, interminable sort that could put Rodríguez into trouble against the likes of Froome. Katusha Teammate Giampaolo Caruso should be a great second. Lampre’s Rui Costa is riding in the Dauphiné instead of the Tour de Suisse this year, eschewing a chance to win a fourth Suisse title in a row. He is hoping to make his mark on the Tour de France this season, which means that the form should be there. The profile, with its constant ups and downs but without any Ventoux-esque climbs, should suit him very well too.

Wilco Kelderman rode well here last year and should be primed for success with the Tour around the corner. Julian Alaphilippe will be eager to show that his success on the climbs in California was no fluke. Trek’s Bauke Mollema rode very well in Tirreno-Adriatico, and should be in the mix with the favorites in this race if he can show that sort of form here. AG2R’s two-pronged attack of Romain Bardet and Jean-Christophe Peraud won’t be easy to counter, assuming the French squad can hang tough in the TTT. Mathias Frank, Pierre Rolland, and Daniel Navarro, and Simon Yates are others with an outside chance at success in the General Classification.

The Stagehunters

The list of sprinters in this mountains race is rather thin, but not without talents. Nacer Bouhanni, Sacha Modolo, and Luka Mezgec look like the fastest finishers here, with Tyler Farrar, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Samuel Dumoulin, Kris Boeckmans, and Kevin Reza are others who could be in the mix in the bunch kicks.

Versatile quick men like Simon Gerrans, Ramunas Navardauskas, and Tony Gallopin will hope to challenge the more explosive GC types on the intermediate days, like Stage 1. And of course, watch out for any strong climbers who fall out of contention early with poor TTT performances to get involved in the breakaway conversation later on in the race.

VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Favorites

GC Winner: Chris Froome
Podium: Alejandro Valverde, Vincenzo Nibali
Other Top Contenders: Tejay van Garderen, Joaquim Rodríguez, Andrew Talansky, Rui Costa, Romain Bardet, Bauke Mollema, Wilco Kelderman

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Georges Ménager (CC).

June 6, 2015
Tour de Romandie 2015 Preview

The Classics are in the rearview mirror but the WorldTour drives on, with the Tour of Romandie the next race on the docket. A six-stage event in the French-speaking part of Switzerland, Romandie has drawn an excellent startlist of big GC names to race its scenic parcours (said scenery one of the many topic’s discussed in the latest Recon Ride, which is worth checking out).

The Route

The Tour de Romandie opens with a team time trial. It’s got a small hill near the end but otherwise it’s relatively flat; at 19.2 kilometers, it’s not long, but it’s not short either, and there will likely be gaps large enough to give a few contenders a sizable advantage.

Stage 2 is a bumpy 166.1km day that will likely see some attempts to get clear on the Cat. 2 climb crested with less than 10km to go, though a major GC shakeup seems unlikely. Stages 3 and 4 have up-and-down profiles but don’t have any major ascents: the sprinters will try to hold on and their teams will try to keep breakaways from going the distance.

Stage 5 is likely to be the most decisive stage of the race, with four Category 1 climbs on the menu, including one to close out the stage.

Stage 5: Fribourg › Champex-Lac (166.1km) – The clear “queen” stage of the Tour de Romandie is the mountainous Stage 5.

The ascent to the summit finish is particularly challenging, 14.2km at 7%, and after a day of tough climbing, plenty of would-be GC contenders will likely run out of gas on the incline.

The Tour de Romandie finishes with a 17.3km individual time trial. There is two-part climb in the middle of the course but not one so steep as to make this a climber-friendly ITT: the big engines should thrive here.

The GC Contenders

Chris Froome will be looking to take his third Tour de Romandie in a row this year, but his run-up to this race has not been ideal. Illness forced him to withdraw from Tirreno-Adriatico in March, he was unable to put up much of a showing in his Catalunya return, and then he suffered a bad fall in La Flèche Wallonne. Apparently he’s healthy enough to race, but form is an unknown. He did appear to be going well enough on the road to the Mur de Huy before his crash, and he did ultimately finish the race. His record here and elite combination of climbing and chrono talent (and his team’s) make him hard to pick against as the top favorite again this year, but there is always the possibility that he is just nowhere near racing shape, and competition will be fierce. Geraint Thomas and Nicolas Roche will be around to play support roles or act as alternatives if necessary, which is quite a luxury for Sky.

Vincenzo Nibali did not land any big results in the Ardennes, but he did show himself to be fit. The chrono mileage doesn’t particularly suit him compared to some of the more ITT-savvy riders here, but he’s demonstrated form more recently than most of the other big names on the startlist. Jakob Fuglsang will make the start as well and figures to play a role for the team coming off of back-to-back Ardennes Top 10s. Fuglsang and Nibali were both in the Top 10 last year and it would be a surprise not to see them both in the mix again this year.

Nairo Quintana’s presence on the startlist means that three of cycling’s so-called Big Four will take on the Tour de Romandie, with Alberto Contador being the only missing rider of the quartet. Quintana, like Nibali, would prefer more climbing and less time trialing. What’s more, although Movistar often field a very strong TTT squad, most of their big chrono guns are sitting this race out. That means that Quintana will have a lot of work to do on Stage 5. Still, he has looked great on the slopes this year and will relish the opportunity to face off against his Tour de France rivals.

Rigoberto Urán is one of the top favorites for next month’s Giro d’Italia, and that means he’ll likely be close to top form in this race. He’s also an elite time trialist riding for EQS, who field an elite TTT squad (which includes Tony Martin) here as well. The Tour de Romandie suits him very well, and he should be in the mix for the overall victory.

Simon Spilak has been runner-up in this race to Chris Froome for two years running. He tends to perform very well in Switzerland, and he’s got a strong all-round skillset that should keep him in contention on both the climbs in the time trials.

Rui Costa also performs at an extremely high-level in Switzerland, with a statistically anomalistic three straight 3rd-place finishes in this race and three straight wins in the Tour de Suisse. He was only so-so in País Vasco but he looked good in the Ardennes Classics and his tendency to ride aggressively on bumpy profiles will be beneficial with this route. I expect Costa to be fighting with the top favorites for the win.

AG2R’s JC Peraud is well suited to the parcours and heading up a powerful team, though one that is likely to lose ground in the opening TTT. Romain Bardet is another option here, though he’ll need to be very aggressive on the climbs to overcome lacking ITT skills in addition to the team’s weak chrono. Mathias Frank of IAM Cycling tends to do quite well in his home country of Switzerland, though the TTT will likely make this a difficult race for him as well. FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot should be in the mix, with Swiss all-rounder Steve Morabito making the start as a nice second. BMC’s Rohan Dennis is an elite time trialist who will hope to handle the difficult climbs. Orica-GreenEdge’s Simon Yates, Lotto Soudal’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka, Cannondale-Garmin’s Dan Martin and Ryder Hesjedal, LottoNL’s Robert Gesink, and Europcar’s Pierre Rolland are other GC types with a chance in this race.

The Stagehunters

Not many pure sprinters are making the trip to the Tour de Romandie, probably because there aren’t many stages that are surefire sprint days. Stages 3 and 4 seem like the most likely opportunities for the quick men, and Giant-Alpecin’s Luka Mezgec, Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo, Sky’s Elia Viviani, and Europcar’s Bryan Coquard look to be the class of the bunch gallopers. The likes of OGE’s Michael Albasini (who won a whopping three stages last year), FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, EQS’s Gianni Meersman and Julian Alaphilippe, and AG2R’s Jan Bakelants are among the riders to watch on the hillier days that could see the heavier pure sprinter-types left behind.

And time trial wonder Tony Martin deserves a mention of his own, given the fact that this race closes out with an ITT. He should be the favorite to win that stage, with only some of the aforementioned chrono-oriented GC men to challenge him.

VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Favorites

GC Winner: Chris Froome
Podium: Rigoberto Urán, Vincenzo Nibali
Other Top Contenders: Rui Costa, Simon Spilak, Nairo Quintana, Jakob Fuglsang, Thibaut Pinot, Jean-Christophe Peraud, Geraint Thomas

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

Photo by Georges Ménager (CC).

April 27, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: Tour de Romandie 2015 Pre-race Show

Episode 11: Tour de Romandie 2015 Pre-race Show
The stage racers are headed to Switzerland for the Tour de Romandie, and the Recon Ride is back with another episode full of pre-race coverage.

[powerpress]

The Classics are done and dusted, and that means we’re getting into the heart of stage-racing season. Some of cycling’s biggest names are set to make the start in the Tour de Romandie. It’s got something for everyone, with flats, hills, mountains, a TTT, and an ITT. Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm have plenty of pre-race analysis to get you ready.

Photo by Georges Ménager (CC).

April 26, 2015
Volta a Catalunya 2015 Preview

While the Classics specialists are recovering from Milano-Sanremo and then heading to Belgium for E3 and Gent-Wevelgem, plenty of other big names, including several of the top stage racers in the sport, will make the journey to Spain to take on the Volta a Catalunya. With no time trials and tough climbs throughout the race, it’s a great event for those who enjoy riding uphill. This year’s edition boasts a startlist filled with stars certain to make things interesting. VH is on-site and will provide plenty of race coverage, including individual stage previews.

The Route

The Volta a Catalunya is a seven-day race that travels through Spain’s Catalonia region, starting in the beach town of Calella and then traveling along the coast and through the Pyrenees before finally coming to a conclusion in Barcelona, the capital of the autonomous community. There are climbs on every stage of the race, and they are categorized 3-2-1-Esp., though the climbs classified as “Cat. 1” here might be classified differently in other stage races. For example, the first Cat. 1 of the race is the Alt del Coll Formic, 7.8 kilometers at a 5.2% average gradient, which is probably not difficult enough for it to be classified as a Category 1 climb in, for instance, the Tour de France.

The first stage does have some tough climbs in the middle of the day and a small bump near the finish, but last year’s Calella stage ended in a bunch sprint and it seems likely that that scenario will repeat itself this year. Stage 2 is one that could go to the more versatile quick men who can stay at the head of the race on a late Cat. 3 climb.

The GC battle will heat up on Stage 3, which starts and finishes in Girona, with two Cat. 3s, a Cat. 2, and two visits to the same Cat. 1 climb along the way. After the peloton makes its second visit to said climb, the Alt dels Ángels (6 km at a 5.5% average grade), there will only be 13 kilometers remaining in the stage; in other words, attacks made on the climb may survive to the line.

Stage 4: Tona › La Molina (188 km) – There won’t be many opportunities for tired legs to rest on the climb-filled fourth stage of the Volta a Catalunya.

Stage 4 will certainly see GC action. The riders will take on a series of climbs on the way to a summit finish at La Molina ski resort, with the seemingly interminable special-category Alt de Creueta (21 km at 4.5%) along the way.

None of the climbs on the stage are individually all that imposing compared to some of the mountains these riders will face in the Giro or the Tour, but taking on so many uphill challenges in rapid succession will certainly wear on the peloton.

Stage 5 will throw a late climb at the riders but the 2014 edition saw a sprit in the same location. Stage 6 is almost certainly for the sprinters. Stage 7, with its eight climbs of Barcelona’s Montjuïc, will almost inevitably see attacks, but whether they will have a GC impact is not so certain.

Several of these stages could end in bunch sprints, despite the climbs and their categorizations in the roadbook. Still, the multitude of vertical challenges guarantees plenty of attacks by the climbers, and the opportunity to put in those uphill digs has drawn a terrific startlist to this year’s race.

The General Classification Contenders

Last year’s winner Joaquim Rodríguez was a late scratch after coming down with an illness, but Tour de France winners Chris Froome and Alberto Contador are among the many elite GC names who will set out from Calella. Froome missed Tirreno-Adriatico with a chest infection, but he was not off the bike for long. Assuming he has maintained the strong form he showed in the Ruta del Sol, Froome will be hard to beat in this race, especially given the incredible team support Sky is bringing. Richie Porte will be another of the top favorites, with Leopold König, Nicolas Roche, and Wout Poels all enjoying contender status as well. Some may point to the lack of time trials in this race as a reason to doubt the chances of Froome (and Sky alternative Porte, for that matter), but at his best, Froome can match the world’s top climbers on the slopes. The overlong climbs on Stage 4 suit Froome and his team perfectly.

Alberto Contador is certainly among those top climbers. His 5th in Tirreno was a bit underwhelming given his status entering the race as the top favorite, but he has another opportunity here in a race in which he has shined in the past. He was 2nd last year behind Purito. Contador is a fiery competitor and he won’t back down from this chance to take on Froome. It won’t be easy against such opposition, but expect a powerful counterpunch from a rider who knows how to race here after Froome defeated him in their first meeting of the year at the Ruta del Sol. Though Contador’s team doesn’t have quite the firepower of Sky, Rafal Majka, Michael Rogers, and Robert Kiserlovksi should be a strong supporting cast as well, especially if Majka can get back to the Top 5-level form he showed in the Tour of Oman after a lackluster Tirreno.

2013 winner Daniel Martin typically performs very well in this race; in addition to his one victory he has also been runner-up twice. For the most part, these climbs suit him very well, and the Irish uphill specialist now lives in the area, meaning that he’ll get a chance to ride on home roads this week. Though he did not have a great Tirreno-Adriatico, Martin has tended to develop his form gradually at the start of the season. He should be among the top contenders here, with a nice finishing kick to help him nab bonus seconds. Andrew Talansky and Ryder Hesjedal make for excellent support riders or potential alternatives for Cannondale-Garmin.

Alejandro Valverde won the Volta back in 2009. He has looked good in almost every race he’s taken on so far this year, and just as it suits fellow hilly classics star Dan Martin, the parcours in this race suits Valverde too. His Spanish squad will look for a top result here, and with the Ardennes rapidly approaching, Valverde will probably be in top shape. His sprinting ability makes him a strong player in the bonus seconds game. He should contend for the podium, though he’ll need to be more aggressive than has been his style lately if he wants to fight for the win. Rubén Fernández is a strong ally.

Rigoberto Urán is in great shape right now and should be capable of fighting for the win. BMC’s Tejay van Garderen took his first WorldTour victory here in a mountaintop stage last year and finished 3rd overall. If he can bounce back from a less-than-successful Paris-Nice, he could notch more success this year. Spain’s Samu Sánchez makes for a nice alternative for BMC. Romain Bardet was just behind van Garderen in the aforementioned mountain stage in last year’s edition. He too struggled in Paris-Nice, but this ITT-less race suits his pure climber’s skillset. Domenico Pozzovivo and Carlos Betancur are other options for AG2R. Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman was another who underwhelmed in Paris-Nice, but he can find his form he should do well here. With practically every team in the race bringing a GC name to Catalonia, the list of outside contenders beyond the many GC riders already mentioned is very long. Some of those that have to be in the conversation are: Astana’s Fabio Aru (whose climbing legs were decent in Paris-Nice despite his poor overall result), Katusha’s Giampaolo Caruso, Lampre-Merida’s Rafal Valls, Giant-Alpecin’s Warren Barguil, Colombia’s Rodolfo Torres, IAM Cycling’s Jarlinson Pantano, Lotto Soudal’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Europcar’s Pierre Rolland, Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro, and OGE’s Esteban Chaves.

The Stagehunters

Despite the many hills along the road to Barcelona, the Volta does often involve several sprint stages. This year’s route should see a few. Giant-Alpecin’s Luka Mezgec won thrice here in 2014 and is again among the fastest names on the startlist. Bryan Coquard has had trouble turning Top 10s into results at the WorldTour level but he’ll have opportunities here. IAM Cycling’s Matteo Pelucchi started the year in fine form and should be able to contend for more results in this race. OGE’s Caleb Ewan, EQS’s Julian Alaphilippe, Trek’s Jasper Stuyven, Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari, and Movistar’s JJ Rojas are on the list of other quick men in Catalunya.

Meanwhile watch out for the likes of Amets Txurruka (Caja Rural), Cyril Gautier (Europcar), and Thomas De Gendt (Lotto Soudal) to try to find breakaway success among the many rollings hills in the race.

VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites

Winner: Chris Froome
Podium: Alberto Contador, Alejandro Valverde
Other Top Contenders: Dan Martin, Romain Bardet, Rigoberto Urán, Richie Porte, Tejay van Garderen, Samuel Sánchez, Fabio Aru

VeloHuman is on-site at the race and will have plenty more insight from Catalunya (keep an eye out for daily stage previews), so stay tuned here and on Twitter @VeloHuman! Also be sure to check out the Recon Ride for more pre-race commentary.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Arnaucc.

March 22, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: Volta a Catalunya 2015 Pre-race Show

Episode 5: Volta a Catalunya 2015 Pre-race Show
The Volta a Catalunya kicks off right after Milano-Sanremo, which means the Recon Ride is back with another pre-race show.
[powerpress]

VeloHuman and Cyclocosm have teamed up again to present another episode of the Recon Ride, covering the Volta a Catalunya. With big GC names on almost every team making the trek to Spain, and climbs throughout the seven-day journey through Catalonia, the race should provide a healthy dose of uphill action. The Recon Ride takes a closer look.

Photo by Arnaucc.

March 20, 2015
Tirreno-Adriatico 2015 Preview

The 50th running of Tirreno-Adriatico offers the cycling world a double dose of WorldTour racing for a few days in March as it overlaps with Paris-Nice in France. The Italian stage race boasts a startlist that includes three of the top four Tour de France favorites (Chris Froome was on the startlist but has withdrawn with a chest infection), elite sprinters, and a bevy of Classics stars tuning up for the one-day races around the corner. Recent history would suggest that this race is an important test for those stars hoping to stand at cycling’s center stage. After winning here last season, Alberto Contador went on to nab quite a collection of results over the course of the rest of his year. In fact, the last six editions in a row have been won by riders who either already had or would go on to add Grand Tour victories to their palmares. No other one-week stage race can boast such a consistent correlation between its winners and the winners of the sport’s biggest events.

The Route

With chrono mileage, sprint stages, bumpier days, and a brutal summit finish all along the route, Tirreno-Adriatico has all the makings of a mini-Grand Tour. Stage 1 is a flat, 5.7-kilometer individual time trial that replaced a TTT at the last moment. Something this short isn’t likely to shake up the GC all that much but it can’t be overlooked either. Meanwhile, some of the more powerful sprinters on the startlist will appreciate the chance to get a rare chrono victory. They will have another chance to shine on the short and flat Stage 2, which will almost certainly end in a bunch gallop.

Things get a bit more interesting on Stage 3, where the peloton will overcome cobbles and some short climbs in the second half of the day likely to favor the punchier riders. Stage 4 poses several challenges, with climbs of the Poggio San Romualdo and Monte San Vicino followed by back-back ascents of the short but steep Crispiero climb, almost certain to launch late attacks.

Stage 5 of Tirreno-Adriatico will put the peloton to the test with a summit finish on the Terminillo climb. 16.1 kilometers at 7.3%, it’s a long slog to the top that will put serious pain into the legs of anyone coming into this race out of shape.

Stage 5: Esanatoglia › Terminillo (197 km) – The long Terminillo climb on the fifth stage of Tirreno Adriatico will be a difficult test of uphill power.

Bauke Mollema told the Recon Ride that this was going to be a climb for the “strong guys” where long-term wattage would be key, and it’s easy to see why.

Stage 6 brings the riders back down towards sea level and should end in a bunch sprint. The seventh and final stage is a flat, 10 kilometer ITT, one final chance for GC action on the last day of the race. From start to finish, it is a balanced route that will require a complete skillset to win. Bonus seconds of 10-6-4 at finishes (and 3-2-1 at intermediate sprints) will benefit those with some punch.

General Classification Contenders

For weeks this was set up to be a clash of cycling’s “Big Four,” the four top favorites for the Tour de France, but Chris Froome withdrew from the startlist with a chest infection, leaving only three of those Grand Tour stars to battle it out with the rest of the contenders. It should still be quite a show.

Defending champion Alberto Contador will enter the race as the top favorite, with his combination of strong time trialing and elite climbing legs, and having shown great form in the Ruta del Sol, where only Froome could beat him. He dominated this race last year and it given his abilities it’s easy to see him head and shoulders above the competition again. Roman Kreuziger, who seems to be in excellent shape right now, will make for a strong support rider or a deadly alternative.

The alteration of Stage 1 from a TTT to an ITT helps Contador even more: his biggest rival looks to be last year’s runner-up Nairo Quintana, who rides for a Movistar team that would have likely put in an excellent performance in the group chrono; now, Quintana must go against the clock by himself, twice. That said, Quintana will have his opportunities to strike for glory on the challenging slopes that await in Tirreno-Adriatico, and he did show some form in January at the Tour de San Luis, where he was 3rd and even put in a decent ride in a mostly flat ITT. Quintana gets better every year (he just turned 25 in February), and he will relish the opportunity to climb one step higher on the podium than he did in the 2014 edition of the race.

Vincenzo Nibali has won here twice, and in top shape he would merit more consideration as the top overall favorite, but has not shown a great deal of form so far this season. He may be following a pattern similar to the one he followed last year, slowly building to his Tour de France peak; it certainly worked out for him in 2014. Furthermore, the route isn’t ideal for him, with its double helping of ITT days. Still, Nibali has gone from showing little form to riding at an elite level very quickly in the past. If that is what he has in mind for Tirreno-Adriatico, watch for him to try to take an early advantage on Stage 3, where short steep climbs will provide launching pads and late descents could help Nibali, a brilliant descender, escape from the peloton if he makes the attempt. A powerful team that includes Dario Cataldo, Michele Scarponi, and Lieuwe Westra will give Astana options.

The form of Joaquim Rodríguez, who typically merits inclusion among the top favorites in a stage race, is a major unknown after quiet starts in Dubai and Oman. The course doesn’t suit him particularly well either, though Purito can never be counted out. Daniel Moreno is here for Katusha as well. Unlike Rodríguez, Moreno has put in decent rides in San Luis and Oman already this season.

New Colombian ITT champ Rigoberto Urán flashed some form in Strade Bianche, where he was 7th, and this is an excellent parcours for him. Tirreno-Adriatico has difficult climbs, but nothing of the incredibly steep variety that might put him into difficulty against the likes of Contador. For Urán, the time trials and potential for bonus seconds (his finishing kick is impressive) on a few stages will be a golden opportunity to challenge the defending champion, as well as the only two riders who have finished the Giro ahead of him the past two season, Nibali and Quintana.

Bauke Mollema will lead the charge for Trek Factory Racing, and he says that he’s feeling good after an offseason with his new team, which a string of good results in early season races seems to confirm. Julián Arredondo gives Trek another dangerous option on the climbs.

Despite the absence of Chris Froome, Sky will still have a strong presence in Tirreno-Adriatico. Leopold König sports a strong time trial and can climb with the best on a good day and Mikel Nieve was 4th in the Ruta del Sol in February. Both riders should be motivated to take advantage of the opportunity to ride for their own results.

AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo would probably prefer more mountains, but he can’t be ignored here. He was 6th last year, and is coming off a nice ride in the Tour Down Under. Teammate Carlos Betancur is a bit of a wildcard, brilliant at his best but not having shown any form since this time last year. Cannondale-Garmin will have the weapons to make for an interesting race with Ryder Hesjedal, Davide Formolo, and Daniel Martin. FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot would prefer less chrono mileage but he has improved in that discipline over the past few seasons and will hope to make up any time he loses in the ITTs on the climbs in the middle of the race. New teammate Steve Morabito is VeloHuman’s Under-the-radar rider for Tirreno-Adriatico. After several years at BMC working as a reliable support rider, Morabito joined FDJ over the offseason. He’s a great climber and decent in the time trials, but he did not get many opportunities to ride for himself at BMC. It should be clear pretty early on in this race whether he is being given a chance to get his own results; if he is, he should surprise some people. Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Pierre Rolland, and Louis Meintjes are other outsiders with a shot.

Stagehunters

Much like Froome among the GC contenders, a sick Marcel Kittel withdrew from the race and the sprinters conversation, leaving Mark Cavendish looking like the top rider for the sprints. He will still have competition, however, especially as he and leadout man Mark Renshaw are both overcoming illness. Sky’s new acquisition Elia Viviani has beaten Cavendish more than once in the past and will hope to do so here. IAM’s Matteo Pelucchi is in great shape right now and should be in the mix. Bora-Argon 18’s Sam Bennett won a hotly contested sprint stage in Qatar and will be dangerous in the fast finishes. Peter Sagan will likely be involved in the bunch sprints as well, and will be especially dangerous on Stage 3, which finishes in Arezzo, where he won last year. Lampre’s Sacha Modolo, Giant’s Luka Mezgec, and Tyler Farrar and Matt Goss of MTN-Qhubeka are other fast men to watch out for.

With two chrono stages, the time trial talents merit a mention as well: Adriano Malori, Fabian Cancellara, Ian Stannard, and Niki Terpstra should all appreciate the pair of opportunities to pick up WorldTour stage wins against the clock at the open and close of the race.

VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites

Winner: Alberto Contador
Podium: Nairo Quintana, Rigoberto Urán
Other Top Contenders: Vincenzo Nibali, Bauke Mollema, Domenico Pozzovivo, Roman Kreuziger, Thibaut Pinot, Joaquim Rodríguez, Leopold König

For daily stage predictions and more Tirreno-Adriatico commentary, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter. And of course, don’t miss the Recon Ride for Tirreno-Adriatico 2015, which covers all the big storylines of the race and even includes a bit of insider insight from GC contender Bauke Mollema.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Francesco Ianett.

March 9, 2015