Tag: Chris Froome

The Recon Ride Podcast: Tirreno-Adriatico 2015 Pre-race Show

Episode 3: Tirreno-Adriatico 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride talks route, favorites, and more for the Race of the Two Seas, with a guest appearance by Trek’s Bauke Mollema.
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While some of the peloton’s big names are in France for Paris-Nice, Grand Tour favorites and top sprinters and classics riders alike will take on Tirreno-Adriatico this week. VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm.com delve into the roadbook, discuss the riders to watch, and even talk to GC contender Bauke Mollema of Trek Factory Racing about what to expect in Italy.

Update: this show was recorded and published before a flurry of late changes to the race narrative, among them the withdrawals of Chris Froome and Marcel Kittel, and the modification of Stage 1 from a team time trial into an individual time trial. However, the Recon Ride covers so many aspects of this race that there should still be plenty here to get you prepared for Tirreno-Adriatico.

Photo by Johan Haggi.

March 8, 2015
2014 Rider Ranking Analysis: A Data-driven Approach

Last week, VeloHuman published an article focused on the breakout stars of the 2014 season, continuing a tradition begun in 2013. Just as was the case last year, much of that analysis came out of a data-driven approach: VH charted rider performance differentials from last season to this one by looking at the points riders accumulated in that timeframe according to both Cycling Quotient and WorldTour Rankings and comparing the difference from one year to the next. Such an analysis makes it easy to see the most dramatic shifts in performance across the professional peloton. Providing a bit of data visualization and also the raw data itself proved a popular decision last year, allowing readers to draw their own conclusions about the ups and downs of the season, so VH decided to provide those tools again this year! Without further ado, the 50 biggest CQ points swings (for riders who were active this season—Mauro Santambrogio, suspended for the year, was left out of the graphic) between 2013 and 2014:

Click here to view the full-size, single image version.

Just a few of the highlights that jump out from the graphic: injuries obviously played a huge role in 2014. Back problems, heart problems, broken wrists, broken collarbones, and broken ribs accounted for much of the red in the Top 50. For some riders, however, the dropoff in performance could not readily be attributed to a fracture or other ailment. Peter Sagan stood on two Monument podiums and won a Tour de France stage in 2013; he didn’t make a single Monument Top 3 and he went winless in the Tour this year. He still finished 2014 ranked 9th overall in CQ Points, but instead of progressing, as may have been expected of the still young star, Sagan seemed to stagnate. Alberto Contador, on the other hand, overcame injury to soar this season. He may have missed out on Tour results but he dominated the one-weekers of the early season, taking victory in Tirreno-Adriatico and Pais Vasco and 2nd in Catalunya and the Dauphine, and then came back with a vengeance in the Vuelta.

The red bar to the left of Vincenzo Nibali’s name may come as a surprise, but it shouldn’t; these are season-long rankings that take into account performances across the racing calendar. Nibali probably wouldn’t give up his season for the world, and a victory in the Tour de France makes it easy to ignore the entire rest of the year, but the Italian stage racing star plainly underwhelmed in the contests leading into the 2014 Tour, and did not put in many race days after Paris.

Heralded rising stars like Michal Kwiatkowski, Tom Van Asbroeck, Fabio Aru, and Tom Dumoulin soared up the various popular rider ranking systems this season and that is reflected here, but a few of the breakout performances you may have missed are shown as well: Pete Kennaugh made statements in several Continental Tour races, and with the powerful support of Team Sky he should continue to develop. Jerome Baugnies of Wanty – Groupe Gobert has been a consistent performer in lower level races across the past few months. Niccolo Bonifazio, who just turned 21 last month, has taken big results at home in Italy and abroad; he just won three stages and the Points Classification, as well as taking 2nd overall, in the Tour of Hainan, a fine way to close out his first full season as a pro.

The data visualization above offers some highlights from this season’s year-over-year rider ranking data but there is plenty more information to be gleaned from the raw numbers. If you are handy with data manipulation, you can draw conclusions of your own: click here to download the 2013–2014 data for the Top 500 riders of the season (on the CQ Ranking scale). Inside, you’ll find identifying biographical data (name, team, country, and birthdate) and CQ Ranking and WorldTour data from 2013 and 2014 along with the differentials across both seasons, so that you can filter and sort to your heart’s content as you make your own analysis. Keep in mind that Cycling Quotient’s ranking system and the WorldTour ranking system are different and favor different things—the CQ Ranking values Continental level results, for instance, while the WorldTour rankings do not. In fact, non-WorldTour riders do not score WT points at all even if they get results in WT races, which is why WorldTour ranking data doesn’t exist for plenty of names on the list. Both systems have their advantages, and ultimately, the sport’s biggest names score highly on both scales anyway.

Feel free to share your thoughts here in the comments or on Twitter @VeloHuman!

-Dane Cash

November 4, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014 Post-race Impressions: Takeaways from the Star-studded Final Grand Tour of the Year

The Vuelta is always an important opportunity for riders who have missed out on results in the early part of the season to take one final shot at Grand Tour success, but a particularly crash-heavy 2014 made this year’s Vuelta startlist one of the strongest in years. The late-season showdown, with many of the sport’s top talents in the mix, was a nice platform for several riders to make strong statements to close out the Grand Tour calendar.

Big Names Deliver in GC Battle

Alberto Contador has now ridden in the Vuelta three times in his career, and he’s won the overall victory each time. That is a stunning achievement in and of itself; this year’s victory is an especially impressive feat given the powerhouse startlist. Contador was untouchable in the mountains, and he was very good in the time trial as well. He also rode a tactically brilliant race; he had the weakest team of any of the top GC contenders, and it didn’t seem to matter at all. He followed the attacks he needed to follow, and didn’t waste energy with others. He was robbed of a chance to prove his strength at the 2014 Tour de France, but this ride at the 2014 Vuelta will be a warning to his rivals that he’ll be very hard to beat in the 2015 Tour.

Had Chris Froome continued throughout the race in the same shape that saw him lose a chunk of time to even Alejandro Valverde in a long, mostly flat time trial, it might have been cause for concern, but he ended the race very, very strong. It’s a shame it took him some time to get back to his best (it would have made for a better, more competitive race if he were able to put in the sort of time trial we know he’s capable of) but his main goal in starting this race was to ride well in a Grand Tour before the season’s end, and he absolutely did that. He may not have been able to touch Contador after falling behind early, but he should still come out of the race with confidence for 2015.

Nairo Quintana‘s abandonment following a bad crash took some excitement out of the race. Hopefully he will recover quickly for 2015; the strength he showed early this season will make him a top favorite in the Tour next year. Teammate Alejandro Valverde wasn’t able to threaten for the Vuelta overall once Contador took control, but that can’t take away from the amazing year he’s had. Among his many huge successes so far are victories in La Fleche Wallonne and San Sebastian, a Vuelta stage win, and Top 5s in the Amstel Gold Race, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, the Tour de France, and the Vuelta overall. His big ride in Spain came after a difficult Tour, to boot; it’s not easy to land a podium in the Vuelta on the heels of a three-week race finished less than a month before the start.

Joaquim Rodriguez, in 4th, never managed to contend, and he didn’t win a stage despite the presence of a very strong team. It was a disappointing ride given the expectations going in. His inability to match rival Valverde will be most frustrating for him. After dropping out of the Giro, Purito rode the Tour as a means of preparing for this race; it was an odd choice, and I’m not sure it was the right one.

Fabio Aru, on the other hand, should be thrilled with a 5th place result. He’s only 24, and he has now landed two Grand Tour Top 5s and three Grand Tour stage wins in the same year! It’s not easy to perform so well across two three-week races in one season, especially not as his young age. He made his “arrival” at the Giro, but I find his Vuelta a España, against so much top-tier talent and coming with plenty of race mileage in his legs already this year, just as impressive.

I’m not sure what Dan Martin‘s Grand Tour racing future holds because he clearly prefers the shorter events, but I’ve been saying for a while now that the has the talent to put in a Top 10 in a three-week event, if he could only avoid crashing or getting sick. It was good to see him finally deliver (7th overall), and against an elite startlist too. Warren Barguil, in 8th, also took a big career step. We knew he could climb, but could he perform at a high level across three weeks? It seems the answer is yes. He’s only 22.

Damiano Caruso was one of the biggest surprises of the race. He had never had a Top 10 in the General Classification of a WorldTour stage race coming into the Vuelta a España, and he picked up his first in a Grand Tour. BMC got a good one for next year.

Belkin will wish they’d gotten a bigger GC result out of this Vuelta, but they should be pleased with the performance of Robert Gesink, who was on track to land well inside the GC Top 10 before leaving the race for personal reasons. After a very tough start to the year and a long break spent recovering from a heart problem, that’s a very encouraging sign for Gesink.

A Few Thoughts on the Stagehunters

John Degenkolb dominated the sprints of the 2012 Vuelta, and his 2014 return to the race was a triumphant one. His four stage wins were impressive, especially the victory on Stage 5 over the very speedy Nacer Bouhanni. Degenkolb’s Points Classification victory may be even more impressive: it’s not easy for a sprinter to win the points jersey in the Vuelta, especially when versatile Alejandro Valverde is on the startlist, but Degenkolb was not to be denied once it became clear that green was within his reach. He missed out on a few opportunities at this year’s Tour due to an early injury in that race, but with the sort of speed he showed in Spain, he should be on track for plenty more success in the very near future, with the upcoming World Championships as a major target and the 2015 classics season and Tour beyond.

Alessandro De Marchi was another stagehunter who found success, picking up his first Grand Tour stage win after coming close several times in the past. He is emerging as one of the top breakaway talents in the peloton, showing a lot of strength when riding uphill on his own. He was King of the Mountains at the Dauphine in June, and riding off the front like he has been this year, a Grand Tour KOM jersey could be in his future.

Jasper Stuyven, who finished with six stage Top 10s, may not have come particularly close to any victories, but his consistent presence near the front on a variety of profiles bodes well for the future: he’s only 22. Yet another rising young talent for Belgium, who just announced a Worlds squad loaded with firepower.

Speaking of Worlds, it’s right around the corner! Stay tuned for VeloHuman previews of the team time trial, the individual time trial, and the road race, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Ramón Peña.

September 16, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 21 Preview

Stage 21: Santiago de Compostela › Santiago de Compostela. El Final del Camino – 9.7 km

The Vuelta’s final stage is here! After Alberto Contador’s decisive mountain victory in the penultimate day of the race, the short individual time trial up next won’t have much of an impact on the General Classification, but stage honors are still on offer, and there are plenty of riders who will like their chances to close out the last Grand Tour of the year with a win.

The 9.7 kilometer route begins with a flat section and then a short downhill stretch, followed by a long section of slight ups and and downs (it averages more up than down) that evens out with about 3 kilometers to go. Then comes a quick descent and then the flattish (there is a very, very minor gradient) final 1.5 kilometers. Without much in the way of topography, and at less than 10 kilometers, it’s going to be an extremely fast stage. It may rain, and it could be a bit windy, both factors that could definitely shake things up in a chrono like this.

The Stage 21 profile suits the real specialists in the time trialing discipline, but a 9.7 kilometer ITT after three weeks of tough racing is different from a short ITT to start a Grand Tour. Everyone will be feeling the effects of the long jorney through Spain. That could make for some interesting results in the Vuelta’s last day.

One star time trialist who should still be feeling good even after all the challenging climbs of the race is Sky’s Chris Froome. Barring a bad crash by Contador, Froome won’t have any chance of taking enough time back from the race leader to move up from 2nd place, but he’ll still want to put in a big ride and maybe come away from the race with a stage win. He has looked stellar in the past few days (a significant improvement over the way he looked in the Vuelta’s first time trial), and this will be a nice chance to end the Vuelta on a high note. He won a similar short chrono back in June in the Dauphine. Starting late in the day, he’ll be able to gauge his efforts against those who have gone before, and he’ll also probably face a bit less wind.

Movistar’s Adriano Malori was underwhelming in the Vuelta’s first race against the clock, but this short, flat test suits him perfectly. He took his first WorldTour win in Tirreno-Adriatico back in March on a very similar profile, beating out Tony Martin and Fabian Cancellara in the process. He should contend for the win here.

Trek’s Kristof Vandewalle is another chrono specialist who should be in the mix. He’s been hard to beat against the clock recently. He took a win over Malori in the closing time trial stage of the Tour de Pologne last month. Teammate Jesse Sergeant, very strong in flat ITTs, will be another top contender on Stage 21.

Garmin-Sharp’s Rohan Dennis hasn’t had as much of an impact on this Vuelta as maybe he would have hoped coming in, but he’s an elite time trialist who will love this chance to land a result before the race is over.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Alberto Contador can’t be ruled out, having come in a close 2nd to Froome in the short ITT that opened the Dauphine. Despite his comfortable hold on the red jersey, he’s not one to pass up a chance at victory.

Michael Matthews could surprise some people: he’s quite effective against the clock in a shorter chorno. Maciej Bodnar, Daniele Bennati, Alexey Lutsenko, Manuel Quinziato, Jonathan Castroviejo, Tobias Ludvigsson, Cameron Meyer, and Patrick Gretsch are others who could contend for stage honors here.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Chris Froome | 2. Adriano Malori | 3. Kristof Vandewalle

As Stage 21 is the final stage of the race, this is the last VeloHuman preview of the 2014 Vuelta a España. I’ve had a blast previewing every day of racing, and I hope you’ve enjoyed reading! Stay connected by following @VeloHuman on Twitter and by checking out the brand new VH Facebook page, and don’t miss VeloHuman’s preview of the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal, the last WorldTour race before the World Championships in Spain. VH will of course be previewing the main events of Worlds as well, so stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

September 13, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 20 Preview

Stage 20: Santo Estevo de Ribas de Sil › Puerto de Ancares – 185.7 km

Following an Adam Hansen victory on a day without many GC implications, Stage 20, the final mountain stage of the 2014 Vuelta a Espana, is here. The parcours should make for quite a showdown. There are four categorized climbs on the profile, and a few more uncategorized challenges, and the constant barrage of ascents will be an uncomfortable experience for a peloton that has been racing for three weeks. The final 32 kilometers are particularly difficult. The Alto de Folgueiras de Aigas is 9.7 kilometers long at an average of 6.7%; just the sort of test to wear out the legs before the vicious final climb of the 2014 Vuelta. The Puerto de Ancares is a monstrous challenge, 12.7 km at 8.7%. Several stretches are significantly steeper (one such stretch, at 12%, comes in the last 2 km), and there aren’t many easy sections to offer respite. The last mountain stage of the last Grand Tour of the year would likely see aggressive riding regardless, but this final climb practically guarantees that the attacks will fly.

The up-and-down second half will make it hard for the peloton to control the race, but as this is the last opportunity for the uphill specialists to shake up the General Classification, the GC men aren’t likely to hold back when the road goes up, which will make it hard for anyone up the road to stay clear. One thing is for certain: it will take an elite pair of climbing legs to win on this stage.

Several very steep sections on the final climb will favor the ultra-lightweight climber types, and few of them are as in-shape right now as race leader Alberto Contador. He’ll be able to follow the attacks, rather than make them, and he’s already shown how dangerous that makes him. His rivals will certainly throw everything they have at him, but when it’s mattered most in this race, Contador has not shown much weakness on the climbs.

Chris Froome has gotten much stronger over the course of this Vuelta, and he’s not going to let this chance to move up the leaderboard get away without a fight. The profile may look to suit some of his rivals a bit better, but Froome has looked strong enough these past few days that it may not matter. Expect to see him attempt a big attack on Stage 20 to try to open up a sizable gap to the rest of the GC contenders.

Joaquim Rodriguez should appreciate the steep finish. He’s been just a bit less strong on the climbs than he might have hoped coming into the Vuelta, but he’ll still have an opportunity to pick up the stage win here. He’s far enough back on the General Classification now that he may get a little bit of breathing room for Contador and Froome if he tries something.

Alejandro Valverde probably won’t get any space to attempt a move, but he’s still a danger. He seems content to hold wheels and hope for sprints even on the climbs that suit him, and that aversion to major risks, while it has kept him from ever picking up any huge gaps to his GC rivals, does make him a constant danger for stage success.

Fabio Aru will have a great opportunity to add to his tally of stage wins with this steep finale; Contador and Co. have shown on multiple occasions that they won’t chase down his attacks, and that gives him even more of an edge than he already has thanks to his awesome uphill ability. Repeating what’s been said in most of the other mountain stage previews so far, Dan Martin, Samuel Sanchez, Daniel Navarro, and Warren Barguil are others who look strong right now and who will probably have freedom to put in moves from the pack.

It’s always hard to predict potential breakaway protagonists, but at least this profile whittles down the list of realistic long-distance contenders to those with immense uphill talent. Ryder Hesjedal has been on excellent form in the Vuelta so far and this long day of climbing suits his one-time-Grand-Tour-winning skillset perfectly. Przemyslaw Niemiec is another rider with GC-style ability who should have a chance if he goes from afar; Damiano Cunego will be a strong card for Lampre-Merida to play as well. Alessandro De Marchi will love the constant up and down. Louis Meintjes has gotten stronger as this race has progressed, and he’ll have a nice opportunity if he can get into a move here on Stage 20. Romain Sicard, Mikel Landa, Wout Poels, Adam Yates and Esteban Chaves, Laurens Ten Dam, David Arroyo, Cadel Evans, and Mikel Nieve are others who might find success in a long-distance strike.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Alberto Contador | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The final preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 20, so stay tuned. Also, don’t miss VH’s coverage the GPs Quebec and Montreal! The Quebec post-race is already up, and the Montreal preview is coming soon!

-Dane Cash

September 12, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 15 Preview

Stage 15: Oviedo › Lagos de Covadonga – 152.2 km

The Vuelta’s fifteenth stage is the second in a trio of intense mountain days (the first went to Ryder Hesjedal from the breakaway). Stage 15 is the shortest non-TT stage in the race at 152.2 kilometers, but the uphill challenges will make this a long day for everyone involved. Small, uncategorized hills are interspersed throughout the first 100 kilometers. Then comes the first categorized test of the day, the Puerto del Torno, a Cat. 2 of 7.2 kilometers at an 8.2% average gradient. The slopes are irregular, with several very steep sections on the way up; in other words, it’s harder than it looks. A tricky descent comes next, followed by a brief respite before the final climb: the iconic Lagos de Covadonga. 12.2 kilometers in length at an average grade of 7.2%, it’s another irregular ascent with several stretches (in the first half of the journey and then again at the very end) that push over 10%. It may rain, which would make this an even more difficult trip skyward.

It’s tough to say one way or the other whether the pack will let the break stay clear here. Coming after one hard day and with yet another to follow, the GC riders could take the first half of the day at a less than furious pace, hoping to save a little energy for all the climbing yet to come. That would give the break a good chance on a profile that is already breakaway-friendly. However, both Chris Froome and Joaquim Rodriguez took a bit of time from Alberto Contador on Stage 14, suggesting that maybe he’s not as invincible as he has seemed so far in the race, and that may give Katusha and Sky the confidence and the motivation to put up more of a fight then they have so far and hunt down the valuable bonus seconds that await at the finish line.

That uncertainty means that no single rider stands out as the indisputable favorite, but there are a few likely top protagonists for each scenario. Should this all come back together for a GC showdown for stage honors, I see Alberto Contador as the day’s most likely winner. He may have lost a bit of time on Stage 14, but he did spend more energy than he probably should have trying to chase down Alejandro Valverde. Ultimately, Valverde lost time, and Contador has to know that Rodriguez and Froome are the most dangerous rivals now. The Lagos de Covadonga climb suits Contador quite well, and he’ll want to do what he can here to close the door of opportunity that may have cracked open just a bit on Stage 14.

Chris Froome‘s Vuelta a España has been enigmatic, to say the least. Who would have expected him to lose time to Alejandro Valverde in the time trial, only to outshine even Purito just days later on a climb with stretches of 20% gradients in the finale? This climb, less explosive except in the last hundred meters or so at the very top, should suit him a bit better, and if he can get away before the final two kilometers he’ll be hard to track down.

Joaquim Rodriguez couldn’t escape from Chris Froome on Stage 14, but he did show strength in putting some daylight between himself and Contador. He’ll have another shot at stage honors on Stage 15, if the GC men are battling for the day and if he can hold on until the very steep final run to the line that will give him a chance to put his elite uphill kick on display.

This is another good opportunity for Astana’s Fabio Aru to take a stage win. He crossed the line on Stage 14 just after Alberto Contador, and, still over two minutes down on GC, he will probably be given some breathing room if he tries to go on the move on Stage 15. Robert Gesink, Daniel Martin, Daniel Navarro, Daniel Moreno, and Mikel Nieve (if Team Sky is inclined to send him up the road) could face the same reaction if attempt to get clear of the GC bunch on the final slopes. Alejandro Valverde, on the other hand, still 2nd overall though losing ground to Froome and Rodriguez, will have plenty of eyes on him and a lot of pressure to bounce back here. That’s not out of the question, and this stage, which eases in the final few kilometers and then hits a steep wall at the very end, does suit him, but he’ll need to find an extra gear fast if he wants to keep his place on GC secure.

No one potential breakaway protagonist could be called a top favorite for Stage 15, but there are several riders who will be well-positioned for glory if they can get out front of the peloton in a long-distance move. More than ten minutes behind on GC, Esteban Chaves is far enough off the radar of the top GC contenders that he should have some freedom to go up the road, and while he hasn’t yet put in a spectacular performance on one of the mountain stages in this Vuelta, he’s still been reasonably strong even when battling among the fringe GC contenders. Teammate Adam Yates might to try give this a go as well. Astana’s Mikel Landa, Trek’s Julian Arredondo, Lampre-Merida’s Damiano Cunego, OPQS’s Gianluca Brambilla, Belkin’s Laurens Ten Dam, MTN-Qhubeka’s Sergio Pardilla, and Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi are other top-notch climbers who could shine in a long-range attack. Ryder Hesjedal, Davide Arroyo, Romain Sicard, and Louis Meintjes will likely be feeling the effects of spending Stage 14 out front when they set out on Stage 15, but depending on each rider’s ability to recover quickly, any one of them could feature again soon

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Alberto Contador | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Fabio Aru

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 15, so stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

September 6, 2014