VeloHuman

Tag: Chris Froome

  • Tour de France 2013 Day 15: Where We Stand After Fourteen Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 15-17

    Ventoux

    Day 15

    A flat stage, an ITT, two more flat stages, and a hilly stage, won respectively by: Marcel Kittel, Tony Martin, Marcel Kittel, Mark Cavendish, and a breakaway. A rather predictable week… Boring no? It was anything but boring. Cavendish got tangled up with Argos-Shimano’s Tom Veelers on stage 10, bringing the leadout man down behind a faster Kittel and Greipel, who fought for the finish line; the former won the day. In stage 11, Froome took another big chunk in the time trial, placing second to the time trialing world champ. Bauke Mollema had a fine day and Laurens Ten Dam was not nearly as bad as he might have been. A crash ended Andre Greipel’s hopes of winning stage 12, making it a showdown between Kittel and Cavendish. The German outsprinted Cav for his third win of the Tour. Stage 13 looked to be another mass sprint affair, until Alejandro Valverde stopped to take care of a mechanical and took a little too long trying to get back into the mix. A Belkin and Omega Pharma-Quick Step led peloton did not apply the brakes, and suddenly Valverde was minutes behind and fighting to catch back up; Movistar sent everyone but Nairo Quintana back to assist. Then, taking advantage of a cross tail wind, Saxo-Tinkoff jumped off the front of the already high-pace peloton, followed by the likes of Mollema, Ten Dam, Fuglsang, Sagan, and a few OPQS riders, including Cavendish. Froome watched as they sped off, and what started looking like a spirited attempt to liven up the race turned into a legitimate breakaway with serious firepower. Valverde suffered the most, unable to match the pace even with help from Kittel and Argos-Shimano and a number of other riders who had been dropped off the pace. The break stayed away and gapped Froome by a minute; Cavendish beat the green jersey to the line (though Sagan did seem relatively uninterested), but the biggest story was the end of Valverde’s GC hopes. Eventually he gave up the chase, and rolled across the line over nine minutes down, ceding the team’s yellow jersey hopes to the young Nairo Quintana. OPQS took another win in stage 14 when Matteo Trentin outsprinted his breakaway companions to the line, but all the GC riders took it easy, except for a once-contender who had suffered a major time loss in stage 9, Garmin-Sharp’s Andrew Talansky. He picked up roughly seven minutes in GC by finishing 3rd on the stage, with the break, rocketing back up to 12th place, right behind his teammate Dan Martin, again giving Garmin two top 10 hopefuls on the eve of the climb up Ventoux.

    Stage 15: Givors > Mont Ventoux | 242.5km | Summit Finish

    The iconic Mont Ventoux awaits, and Chris Froome’s many challengers will hope to use this stage as their launching point towards a yellow jersey that has gotten further away from them since the Tour left Corsica. I have to doubt their chances. Froome has aced every test so far, and while his team may have been battered in the past week, losing a pair of riders and dropping their total to seven, the leader looks strong as ever. His reduced team will need to be as good as possible though, with three Cat 4s and then a Cat 3 well before the climb to the summit of Ventoux even begins. Be ready to see a lot of attacks and attempted breakaways.

    Speaking of attacks, when Valverde fell off the back of the peloton yesterday and Costa went with him, Movistar lost a lot of GC-threatening-attack-clout. Quintana alone remainsin contention. Expect to see him right there with Froome until he decides to attack, hard. I think the young Colombian, who has shown that he is on form with repeated jumps ahead in service of Valverde earlier, could pose a challenge on Ventoux’s slopes, especially now that his team is more dedicated to his own plans—though I wouldn’t be surprised to see Alejandro Valverde strike out for his own stage-winning glory now that he isn’t seen as a threat for the overall. Obviously this stage looks great for Contador, but until he proves that he can keep up with the under-30 crowd that crested Ax 3 Domaines before him, I’ll withhold my stage-winning tip—though I think he’ll be up there well ahead of Joaquim Rodriguez, who didn’t inspire confidence in the Dauphine and hasn’t yet in the Tour; additionally, this sort of long steep climb favors other climbers a bit more.

    Jakob Fuglsang doesn’t have great team support, but I do think he is capable of hauling tail up this sort of climb. Similarly, I’m not sure how much support his stage 9 companion Dan Martin will have, what with Talansky spending all of today in the breakaway, though Martin has inspired confidence on his own so far this Tour. If he can hang on long enough, the brutal gradient at the top would be a great place for his Ardennes-winning skillset. And then of course, it is Bastille Day, and that will likely spur the French climbers into relentless attack mode. Pierre Rolland’s quest for the polka dots would really benefit from making it up Ventoux first, but I question his ability to stay away or to climb with the heavy hitters. I don’t think Voeckler has it in him either. John Gadret and Romain Bardet have shown good form so far and wouldn’t surprise me with an effort to attack up the mountain that the GC riders will likely ignore. A month ago, I might have tipped Thibaut Pinot, and this stage does not require him to descend down Ventoux after he climbs it, but he hasn’t done much to prove he’s capable this Tour. In short, as uninteresting as it may be, I can’t look past Froome until others step up in the mountains. Mollema and Quintana also both came into this Tour with strong 2013s backing their claims and have performed accordingly so far, but others need to act quickly if they want to prove that they have finally rounded into form.

    Stage Favorites

    1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana

    Stage 16: Vaison-la-Romaine > Gap | 168km | Medium Mountains

    The road to Gap looks like a perfect day for a breakaway, with an early Cat 3 and then Cat 2 climb, and a late Cat 2 summit less than fifteen kilometers from the finish. If the GC guys are taking it easy heading into a very difficult time trial and then the double climb of Alpe D’Huez, it will be a good opportunity for enterprising types to jump into a break and stay away all day. Orica-GreenEdge has a knack for this sort of thing with a number of competitors capable of hanging with a break, namely, the Simons Gerrans or Clake. Clarke has said he is at the Tour to get into breaks, and he didn’t go with the jump on stage 14, so I have to think he might try here. Sylvain Chavanel, who took Stage 14 easy, might like this sort of stage as well. As we saw today, the transitional stages where the GC men aren’t paying much attention to the break can be very difficult to call, so suffice it to say that any strong non-GC rider with a talent for climbing and jumping quickly into a breakaway is going to see this as a good opportunity. And of course, you can never count out Peter Sagan.

    Stage Favorites

    1. Simon Clarke | 2. Sylvain Chavanel

    Stage 17: Embrun > Chorges | 32km | ITT

    A mountain time trial gives Chris Froome another excellent opportunity to pick up time on his closest rivals, though the parcours should certainly reduce the gaps between the Sky captain and his more climbing-oriented challengers. Contador may have lost a lot of time at Mont St. Michel, but he did have a strong day on a course that did not play to his skillset. I expect a good day from him here; I think he’ll lose time, but less than he did in Stage 11. I also expect a very good performance from Bauke Mollema, having taken third on a very recent mountain trial of only five fewer kilometers shorter in the Tour de Suisse, a result that nabbed him second overall in GC to the winner of both that day and that tour, Rui Costa. Movistar may hold Costa back this week, but he’s got the talent to put up a strong result on stage 17 (as usual, this team ambition vs. time trialing prowess question holds true for many riders in the role of domestique, including Costa’s teammates Andrey Amador and Jonathan Castroviejo, who may be taking it easy or may go full speed). The climbs will be much more to the liking of Movistar’s new leader than was the flat course on the coast, and I expect Quintana to do very well here. On the flip side, stage may be a bit too lumpy for Tony Martin’s liking. Michal Kwiatkowski has shown that he is not one to be doubted and while it’s a very techincal and vertically challenging time trial, I think he’ll make his mark.

    Stage Favorites

    1. Chris Froome | 2. Bauke Mollema | 3. Alberto Contador

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by akunamatata.

  • Tour de France 2013 Day 10: Where We Stand After Nine Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 10-14

    MontStMichel

    Day 10: Yellow Jersey Battle Shaping Up

    In very broad strokes, stages 8 and 9 were what we expected: a select group of riders gained major ground in stage 8, and nobody picked up much time in stage 9, though a few riders fell out of contention.

    But as far as how all that actually happened, and to what extent, the two days in the Pyrenees were quite surprising, and quite decisive for a number of riders. On the first day, Sky kept a impressive pace throughout the day, and didn’t panic when star riders like Nairo Quintana launched attacks on the slopes. The train just chugged along, dropping guys like Tejay van Garderen out of GC contention. Eventually, all attackers were reeled in, and on the final climb, Richie Porte put the hammer down like an Australian John Henry (sorry for all the railroad-oriented language) and laid waste to some big names. In the end, it was just Porte and Froome riding together with all other challengers in the rear view mirror, and then Froome swung out ahead of Porte and went off alone for the victory, with his captain riding in behind him some fifty seconds later. Valverde and Mollema came in next, over a minute down on Froome, and then Laurens Ten Dam and a surprising Mikel Nieve. Kreuziger, Contador, and Quintana were all 1:45 down on Froome, and Rodriguez, Costa, Martin, Talansky, and Fuglsang rolled in over two minutes behind the Sky leader. But things went well for these guys compared to Cadel Evans and Dani Moreno, who lost over four minutes, and Pinot and van Garderen, who found themselves out of contention for GC, six and twelve minutes back, respectively. A truly decisive day, and one from which yellow jersey favorites not named Chris Froome will have a lot of trouble recovering. Valverde mitigated his losses, but Contador and Rodriguez will have trouble taking back seconds, especially with a flat time trial coming up this week. To those wondering if Andy Shleck is finally back, he did manage to cross the line only three and a half minutes down.

    Stage 9 was a day filled with attacks, and the madness hit Sky hard. Peter Kennaugh crashed into undergrowth beside the road and left the team down an important domestique. When Garmin and Movistar started attacking like crazy on every ascent, Sky found themselves struggling to reel in the constant barrage from the likes of Ryder Hesjedal and Nairo Quintana. Richie Porte, who clearly had little left in the tank after so much energy expended the day prior, lost touch and Sky was unable to give him as much support as they might have wanted. He tried chasing, but was ultimately called off the endeavor, proving a crucial difference between last year’s Wiggins-Froome duo and this year’s Froome-Porte duo: Porte is 100% commited to Froome’s victory, and everything else is secondary. Porte was integral to Froome’s huge time gap the day before, and he paid for it in stage 9. Still, Chris Froome was unbroken by the constant attempted breakaways, and by the final Cat 1 climb, a select group of strong climbers was riding together with no one ahead of them. Then, Garmin’s Dan Martin jumped ahead and did what he does best, gunning uphill toward the summit. Jakob Fuglsang joined him, and together, they descended skillfully for thirty kilometers, holding onto a few tens of seconds of a lead. Martin outsprinted Fuglsang for the stage win. Still, in terms of GC, they finished with only twenty seconds of a gap between themselves and the Froome group, which included all of the big favorites (among them Cadel Evans and even Andy Schleck, who sits in a somewhat surprising 15th place)… except for Richie Porte, who came in around eighteen minutes down with broken-ribbed Ryder Hesjedal. With the second-in-command’s chance at the podium done, Sky may have to alter strategy somewhat now that Porte going off the front won’t scare anyone for GC.

    Stage 10: Saint-Gildas-des-Bois > Saint-Malo 197km Flat

    It’s a day for the sprinters, with a Cat 4 climb, but otherwise, not much to break up the pack. It looks like a perfect day for the big boys, Cavendish, Greipel, and Kittel. Hard to pick from among these guys. Greipel seems a solid choice for the leadout friendly finish.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Andre Greipel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. Marcel Kittel

    Stage 11: Avranches > Mont-Saint-Michel | 33km | ITT

    An incredibly scenic time trial that will provide plenty of helicopter shots… It’s flat, but fortunately for Contador et al, it’s relatively short, meaning it will be difficult for Chris Froome to pick up too much time on his climbing-oriented rivals. Tony Martin seems to be recovered from his stage 1 crash, and if so, he’s the favorite to win the day, though Froome winning wouldn’t surprise anyone. If Tejay van Garderen has recovered from his curious case of being terrible, he should challenge for a top spot as well. Of the GC types, Contador and Valverde are both decent time trialists, and so are Kwiatkowsi and Fuglsang and of course Cadel Evans. Nairo Quintana has surprising ability for all his “climbing” specialist label. On the other hand, Joaquim Rodriguez, Daniel Martin, and Laurens Ten Dam will all be doing their best to keep their losses slight. Tipping a non-GC name in a Grand Tour time trial can be difficult, simply because some guys take it easy in order to rest for their domestique duties: Tanel Kangert seriously let the VeloHuman Procycling (fantasy) squad down in the Giro when he decided to use the stage 18 time trial as a recovery ride to best prepare to help Nibali in the mountains. I would imagine that Richie Porte would have an excellent day, but he has shown that he’s willing to put his own dreams aside for Froome. Edvald Boasson Hagen might dig this stage, too, it being a short TT, something he’s in which he is quite capable of performing. Sylvain Chavanel, Peter Velits, Svein Tuft, and Cameron Meyer are other guys who could place highly. My pick to surprise is Movistar’s Jonathan Castroviejo. He’s nowhere close in GC so who knows, but he has the ability to time trial with the best of them.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Tony Martin | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Peter Velits

    Watch Out For:

    Jonathan Castroviejo

    Stage 12: Fougères > Tours | 218km | Flat

    Another flat day, and I am running out of things to say about these sorts of stages. It’s a rather long stage, but there are only small bumps to keep things interesting. I’d imagine it’ll be the usual suspects at the finish line, and I’m hard-pressed to pick one over the other but more often than not I’d take Cavendish on a garden-variety flat stage.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Andre Greipel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. Marcel Kittel

    Stage 13: Tours > Saint-Amand-Montrond | 173km | Flat

    There is a Cat 4 climb early, and then an uncategorized but surprisingly steep little hill only a few kilometers from the finish. Perhaps things will get interesting if Gilbert is sick of all the “when will he win?” talk and decides to attack on the climb? Probably not. It is likely that everyone makes it to the mass sprint, but I like Cavendish, Sagan, and Kristoff most here.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Mark Cavendish | 2. Peter Sagan | 3. Alexander Kristoff

    Stage 14: Saint-Pourçain-sur-Sioule > Lyon | 191km | Medium Mountains

    With seven categorized climbs (five Cat 4s and a pair of 3s), this stage might have breakaway written all over it if it weren’t for Peter Sagan and his pack of Cannondale supporters. As effectively as they handled stage 7, it’s hard to pick against them here, though even if they do manage to reel in any early breakaways, a pair of Cat 4s less than 20 km from the finish could be a springboard for the always hungry Sylvain Chavanel or Gilbert. If the pack finishes together minus the Greipel-types, Sagan seems the easy favorite, with Edvald Boasson Hagen and true all-rounder Michal Kwiatkowski (assuming he goes for it now that he is placed so highly in GC) as other possible contenders. It could be a good day for Orica-GreenEdge’s Simon Gerrans or Daryl Impey to jump ahead late, as well.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Peter Sagan | 2. Edvald Boasson Hagen | 3. Michal Kwiatkowski

    Watch Out For:

    Daryl Impey, Simon Gerrans

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by schlaeger.

  • Tour de France 2013 Day 7: Where We Stand After Seven Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 8-9

    Ax3Crop

    Day 7: Into the Mountains

    There was a lot of talk about the grueling first week of this year’s Tour de France, and while Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel will surely tell you that today was more grueling than they would have liked, the GC riders did not have much trouble handling the hills or winds in Corsica or southern France. The only casualty so far who was a legitimate GC contender is the unfortunate Jurgen Van Den Broeck, who abandoned due to crash-related injuries. Ryder Hesjedal has a broken rib from a crash, but he hasn’t shown signs of giving up yet.

    Stage 4’s team time trial went almost as expected: Teams Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Sky were in the top 3, and Movistar, Garmin, and Saxo-Tinkoff had fine days. But the glory went to Orica-GreenEdge, who managed to cross the finish line with the fastest time… by less than one second. The feat put Simon Gerrans, winner of stage 3, into the yellow jersey.

    Stage 5 was a bit hilly, but the sprint teams did not have too much trouble hanging on. As expected, Kittel didn’t factor, but Cavendish and Greipel were there, and the Manxman nabbed his first win of the Tour.

    Stage 6 was a flat affair, and despite high winds, the pack finished together. Unfortunately Cavendish went down in a crash as the day was nearing its close, and while he made it back to the group and into the finishing sprint, he couldn’t match Andre Greipel, who took his first win of the Tour.

    Again, as the last VeloHuman update had anticipated, stage 7 proved too much for the flatland sprinters. A break tried to escape, but Sagan’s team Cannondale made up for their not-so-great performances in previous stages by leading the peloton for quite an amazing chunk of time, and still had the energy to catapult Sagan to his first Tour victory (albeit, with a bit of nifty handling from the Slovakian to get onto John Degenkolb’s wheel and then power past hiim) after three second place finishes. After a week, Sagan is quite comfortably in the lead for the points classification.

    Stage 8: Castres > Ax 3 Domaines | 195km | Summit Finish

    Finally, a stage with some serious GC implications. After many flat kilometers, the peloton will be forced to tackle a Hors Categorie climb and then chug up a Cat 1 summit finish. At least, we have a stage that will end with time gaps between riders. It’s not the most grueling mountain stage, thanks to the basically 100 km of flatness, but it will force the yellow jersey contenders to duke it out over the last several kilometers, and by the end of the day, we’ll probably see a few of the expected contenders exposed as pretenders. It will be an opportunity for Alberto Contador to show that he’s rounded into form and capable of providing his trademark attacks, and Cadel Evans will need to inspire his team’s confidence making it up the last summit with the leaders: I doubt BMC will let Tejay tow the veteran rider up many more mountains this year. With a relatively short Cat 1 finish, it looks like a great day for Alejandro Valverde, with his stable of Movistar mountain goats (Costa, Quintana, and Amador) to provide strong support. With their strategy of attacking from every angle in mind, Garmin may fire off a shot of Dan Martin or Andrew Talansky. But the boys in black (Sky) will come to the fight with all their firepower, and the recent results to answer any questions of form. Froome has shown time and again that’s up for it, and now is a good time to start his quest for the GC lead. With a better TTT than any of the big contenders, a stage win here could put him in yellow.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Chris Froome | 2. Alejandro Valverde

    Stage 9: Saint-Girons > Bagnères-de-Bigorre | 168.5km | High Mountains

    Five categorized climbs (a Cat 2, and then four Cat 1s), but a long downhill finish: the 30km descent might make it tough for anyone to escape. It’s a very tough day, and moreso than last stage, scaling so many summits might weed out any pretenders for GC, but that finish makes this stage more of one not to lose. Joaquim Rodriguez had a forgettable Dauphine, and Katusha will be looking for him to show up over so many kilometers of up and down. This looks like the perfect day for the Sky train to make its best attempt at controlling the bunch, while a group of dedicated polka dot jersey seekers goes for the succession of points-offering mountains. We’ll probably see a lot of Pierre Rolland early in the day, but any attacks will be hard-pressed to stay alive for the long descent. If the train doesn’t roll over the line in succession, this stage could come down to the GC contender who most wants to pick up a stage win regardless of the time gaps he might pick up: sounds like a day for an enterprising hard-charger with climbing legs, like Ryder Hesjedal (if he’s capable), Cadel Evans (if he’s capable), or Alejandro Valverde. Until we know more about the form of the top guys, it’s hard to say who will be there at the end. Sky seems like another good bet for now.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Chris Froome | 2. Richie Porte

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by Marceau R.

  • Tour de France 2013 Pre-race Outlook

    Froome

    All-Rounder Roundup

    Most observers seem to consider this Tour as a showdown between Chris Froome and Alberto Contador. For every news article fawning over Chris Froome’s dominance in basically every race he’s entered this year, there is a commentator shaking his head and reminding us that Contador is Contador, and on cycling’s biggest stage, he’ll make everyone forget the minor races he didn’t care to win. And that really is the storyline: Froome has podiumed in Grand Tours in the past, at 28 he’s just hitting his prime, and this year he has been unstoppable; Contador, on the other hand, hasn’t been the superstar he is expected to be just yet this year… but he is the same Contador who has won all three Grand Tours, including the Vuelta in 2012.

    His underwhelming results so far this year make Contador very difficult to judge. There is no question that Froome and the Sky locomotive are ready to party come Saturday. Contador has a very powerful team to back him up (Roman Kreuziger took Amstel Gold earlier this year and was very strong in the Tour de Suisse, finishing on the podium), and if he shows the same form he has shown in the past, it could go down to the wire, with Froome taking the lead early thanks to a pair of time trials, and Contador fighting to take back seconds in a brutal final week in the mountains.

    But as dominant as Contador was in the past, I just don’t see the evidence that he still has that same engine he once had. It’s not like he’s been bad so far this year; he’s just been okay. Sure, he could peak right on time, and could very well win the race, but from what we’ve seen so far, Froome is the rightful favorite heading into Corsica… and while I wouldn’t be surprised if Contador wins the yellow, I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Contador fall to third behind Froome’s friend Richie Porte. Like Froome, Porte has been on fire this year, winning Paris-Nice and getting onto the podium in Pais Vasco and the Critérium du Dauphiné. His best Grand Tour result to date? 7th in the 2010 Giro. But this looks like it could be the year where he makes it onto a Grand Tour podium; given the team leader role in a few big stage races, he showed quite a talent against the clock, but also seemed more comfortable than ever climbing up the steepest cols with the rest of the GC contenders. As Froome’s lieutenant in the Critérium du Dauphiné, he seemed quite capable of performing double duty as a domestique and a GC man in his own right, and with questions dogging Contador’s performance heading into the Tour, it’s hard to see past Sky’s 1-2 killer punch. It seemed to work out well for them last year…

    There are quite a few other big names to cover, some of whom I think will do well, others who I think might have trouble. Alejandro Valverde is one I expect to perform. He has Nairo Quintana and Rui Costa as lieutenants… not a bad setup. With a team like that and a resume of eight Grand Tour top 10s (including a Vuelta win in 2009), he’s got the credentials. Like Contador, he sat out for two years thanks to a doping ban, and then returned with a strong Vuelta performance, where he took second to Alberto, and also took the points jersey. He showed good form all spring, too, getting on the podium at Liege and Amstel Gold. He wasn’t great at the Critérium du Dauphiné, but he was better than Contador, and much better than another big name I also think can push for a top 10 or even a top 5 at the Tour, Joaquim Rodriguez, who was a disappointing 16th at the Dolphin. Perhaps it was only a hiccup; he took second behind Daniel Martin at both Liege and Cataluyna, and looked fine at Tirreno-Adriatico, where he won a stage and took 5th. And if there has ever been a Tour to suit the climbing legend who doesn’t TT particularly well, this one is it.

    On the flip side is 2011 winner Cadel Evans, who comes to the Tour with multiple storylines. After a grueling Giro, can he continue to perform at a high level in a Grand Tour just a month later? And what about Tejay van Garderen, who made Evans look old and tired last Tour? Many observers bet against Evans at the Giro this year after his 7th place in the 2012 Tour de France, and he managed to make it onto the podium. Shouldn’t I be wary of doubting him at the Tour then? Maybe, but there are reasons aplenty. First, giving the Giro your all and then turning around and putting in a star performance at the Tour de France just doens’t really happen anymore. Evans is 36, not exactly an age that inspires confidence in his endurance. Moreover, he seemed to fade a little towards the end of the Giro, and though he podiumed, both Bradley Wiggins and Ryder Hesjedal abandoned. So I just don’t see it happening for Cadel this Tour.

    CadelandTejay

    His teammate Tejay van Garderen is another story. The 25 year old American took 5th overall and the young rider classification last year. He was 4th at Paris-Nice this year, and he finally won a pro race for the first time at the Tour of California, where he looked worlds ahead of the competition. If the story ended there, I’d say van Garderen was a strong choice for the top 5. I still think he’s a strong choice, but unfortunately 1) BMC seems to be backing Evans again, and 2) van Garderen was only so-so at the Tour de Suisse, and didn’t inspire much confidence in what is considered a strong suit for him, time trialing. I think BMC will give over to van Garderen earlier this year than they did last year, and I think his form is probably fine (7th at the Suisse still isn’t anything to sneeze at), so I’m tipping him as another strong contender for the top 5 again this year.

    Team Belkin (formerly Blanco) apparently got tired of waiting for Robert Gesink to live up to his potential, and named Bauke Mollema team leader for the Tour de France. Mollema is coming off a strong Tour de Suisse (second overall and a stage win), and with a good team of GC-focused riders behind him, I think he’ll be a strong performer. His 2012 was rather disappointing, but he has had a nice year so far.

    Garmin-Sharp brings another strong team to the Tour this year, with a three-pronged attack of Ryder Hesjedal, Dan Martin, and Andrew Talansky at the helm and some strong veterans in support roles. Hesjedal failed to defend his 2012 Giro win this year, abandoning the race, and then he crashed out of the Tour de Suisse. He’s the only member of Garmin’s big three to even podium in a Grand Tour, but it’s hard to see past his lacking Palmares so far in 2013. Instead, I think Liège–Bastogne–Liège winner Dan Martin could be the best finisher of the three (and could definitely nab a stage win or two), in the midst of the best year of his racing life. In addition to his Monument win this year, Martin has podium finish in another Monument (Lombardia), a small collection of stage race overall wins, and a Vuelta stage to his name across his young career, but this will be the first time he’s taken on a Grand Tour in this sort of position, with GC aspirations. This year’s Tour should suit his climbing capabilities, but he’ll have to limit his losses on Stage 11. Time will tell. Andrew Talansky, riding in his first Tour de France, could certainly create some fireworks as well, though I think it may be a little early to tip him as a strong challenger for the overall.

    I don’t see another top 5 overall for Jurgen Van Den Broeck. Lotto-Belisol’s lineup doesn’t strike fear in anyone’s heart in the way that Sky, Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff do, and I think there a a few more hard-changing up-and-comers who could muscle him out of the top of hte leaderboard this year. It is hard to judge his form, as he has taken the “focus solely on the Tour” approach this year, with no WorldTour podium finishes to speak of so far.

    Nairo Quintana is a hot name heading into the Tour, fresh off an impressive Pais Vasco win (he also took a stage and the Points classification), and we know he certainly has the talent. In the Basque Country, he followed several days of dominant climbing with a surprising second place in the final day’s time trial, behind only Tony Martin, greatest TTer alive, and ahead of Porte and Contador. However, Quintana hasn’t raced since April (he’s been training back home) and he’ll at least start out riding for Valverde. I don’t know that the time is right to pick Quintana as a guy to mount a serious GC challenge, though it certainly wouldn’t surprise me if he did.

    This year’s parcours certainly suits another up-and-coming star, France’s Thibaut Pinot, who managed a 10th place and a stage win at last year’s Tour. He won’t have the dark horse’s advantage this year, he needs to improve against the clock, and he doesn’t have the team support of some of the other star contenders, but I could see another performance at the fringes of the top 10. He looked pretty good in the Tour de Suisse, managing a decent 4th.

    The Froome vs. Contador battle at the top, and the battle of names like Martin, Pinot, Quintana, and van Garderen vs. Valverde, Rodriguez, and Evans as challengers fills this Tour with storylines of old guard vs. up-and-comers. We should be in for some thrills as the untested set out to prove they have what it takes against the many decorated veterans in the peloton. I think the up-and-comers will have some success: I see Froome taking the overall win and a number of younger riders getting into the top 10 at the expense of some of the more well-known veterans.

    Sagan

    Stagehunters

    This year’s battle for green may be the biggest in years. Two years ago, the rules for the points classification were adjusted to favor the pure sprinters, and Mark Cavendish summarily won his first green in. Then, in 2012, an up-and-coming Slovakian rider named Peter Sagan set out on his first Tour de France journey, and proceeded to clean up the points classification, winning three stages and placing highly in a boatload more. This year’s Tour should have enough flat stages to make things very interesting, with plenty of opportunities for Cavendish to remain in the bunch until the final few hundred meters, at which point there is no one on Earth who is faster. He could win five or even six stages, if everything goes according to plan, and OPQS finally seems to have their leadout down, which bodes well for his chances. He certainly hasn’t seen his form decline since last year’s Tour, winning the points classification in May’s Giro d’Italia. Sagan will need to be on his game to nab as many hilly stages as he can, while remaining in contention on the pancake style stages–hanging on over the climbs in Corsica could be crucial, and making up extra points in intermediate sprints will be vital as well. He’ll also need to hope breakaways don’t rob him of stage wins in the later Medium Mountain stages where he might otherwise be capable of leading a group across the line. If it comes down to Cavendish vs. Sagan for green, and I think it will, I’d have to pick Sagan by a very small margin; it will probably be much closer than last year.

    Outside of those two favorites, Andre the Gorilla Greipel looks like Cavendish’s main rival on the flat sprints, but don’t count out Marcel Kittel, who has taken wins in Schelderprijs and in stages of a number of smaller stage races this year, even beating Cavendish and Greipel on occassion. The 25 year old comes to the Tour with a team totally dedicated to winning stages, and Kittel is their man on the flats. He’s probably a bit too limited and too third-fiddle to challenge for the green jersey, but he could certainly succeed in his hunt for a stage or two.

    Argos-Shimano’s other sprinter, John Degenkolb, is tough to judge going into the race. He took an awesome stage win in the Giro, but other than that, he’s achieved essentially zilch this year, after his unbelievable success last year, highlighted by five wins in the Vuelta. Argos will be behind him on any stage that Kittel can’t make it over the mountains, but he’ll want to prove that he has form as quickly as possible, so that his team doesn’t start to wonder if they should be working harder to get Kittel over the bumps.

    Other sprinters-who-can-climb include Matt Goss, Alexander Kristoff, and Edvald Boasson Hagen, in descending order of how much their teams care about their own stage-winning aspirations. Goss has GreenEdge’s full support as often as he can hang on over the bumps, but he’s been disappointing this year. I think he’s likely to rack up a bunch of points by taking minor placings in sprints, but he probably can’t beat Cav/Greipel/Kittel in a flat finish and he’ll be contending with Peter Sagan for the hillier stages. At the beginning of his still young career, it was thought that Goss had one of the best post-climb sprints in the sport, so we know that he was at least at one time capable of giving the best of the best a run for their money, but this year’s Tour is not one with much room for error. Alexander Kristoff is an exciting young rider who could also challenge Sagan for hillier stages, coming in ahead of Cannondale’s star on two sprint finishes in the Tour de Suisse (one of which he won). Eddy Boss is obviously one of the peloton’s most talented riders, but he won’t have nearly the support of many of these other names: Cannondale, OPQS, Argos-Shimano, and Orica-GreenEdge are at the Tour 100% focused on stage wins for their fast men, but EBH will be looking for his opportunities while playing domestique for Froome and Porte. Like Goss, he probably can’t pip any of the pure sprinters to the line, so he’ll have to race smart like he did at the Dauphiné (where he laid low for two stages and then showed off his superior handling skills on a hilly third stage, turning a sharp final corner before gunning it to the line) and maybe he can nab a Medium Mountain win if all goes according to plan.

    And of course, keep an eye out for the French riders, especially those sporting the colors of Cofidis, Europcar, and Sojasun, who will look for chances to make a statement at every opportunity. Breakaways and reduced sprints could see a lot of action from guys with dreams of stage glory in their home Grand Tour. Thomas Voeckler will certainly be most prominent of those hoping for breakaway wins (he will likely shoot for the polka dots again, as well), and he will face stiff competition from fellow countrymen and Orica GreenEdge’s Michael Albasini, Simon Clarke and Simon Gerrans, all of whom are capable of going for long distance wins in the hills.

    NOTE: I will be doing several “Where We Stand” updates throughout the Tour which will include stage picks for the upcoming days, including one on Day 0, tomorrow. More analysis to come!

    Predictions

    General Classification (Yellow Jersey)

    Winner: Chris Froome

    Podium: Alberto Contador, Richie Porte

    Other Strong Contenders: Alejandro Valverde, Bauke Mollema, Dan Martin, Tejay van Garderen, Joaquim Rodriguez

    Points Classification (Green Jersey)

    Winner: Peter Sagan

    Stages

    Stage 1: Porto-Vecchio > Bastia | 213km | Flat

    Stage 2: Bastia > Ajaccio | 156km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 3: Ajaccio > Calvi | 145.5km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 4: Nice > Nice | 25km | TTT

    Stage 5: Cagnes-sur-Mer > Marseille | 228.5 | Flat

    Stage 6: Aix-en-Provence > Montpellier | 176.5km | Flat

    Stage 7: Montpellier > Albi | 205.5km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 8: Castres > Ax 3 Domaines | 195km | Summit Finish

    Stage 9: Saint-Girons > Bagnères-de-Bigorre | 168.5km | High Mountains

    Stage 10: Saint-Gildas-des-Bois > Saint-Malo | 197km | Flat

    Stage 11: Avranches > Mont-Saint-Michel | 33km | ITT

    Stage 12: Fougères > Tours | 218km | Flat

    Stage 13: Tours > Saint-Amand-Montrond | 173km | Flat

    Stage 14: Saint-Pourçain-sur-Sioule > Lyon | 191km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 15: Givors > Mont Ventoux | 242.5km | Summit Finish

    Stage 16: Vaison-la-Romaine > Gap | 168km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 17: Embrun > Chorges | 32km | ITT

    Stage 18: Gap > Alpe-d’Huez | 172.5km | Summit Finish

    Stage 19: Le Bourg-d’Oisans > Le Grand-Bornand | 204.5km | High Mountains

    Stage 20: Annecy > Mont Semnoz | 125km | Summit Finish

    Stage 21: Versailles > Paris | 133.5km | Flat

    -Dane Cash

    Photos by Georges Ménager and Flowizm.

  • Tour de France 2013: An In-depth Guide for New Fans

    Tour2012

    Race Overview

    The 100th Tour de France will run from June 29th to July 21st, covering over 3400 km (2110 mi) across 21 stages. July 8th and 15th are rest days. The race begins in Corsica, visiting the island for the first time in the history of the Tour, and from there it moves to the mainland. For the first time since 1988, the Tour will take place completely within French borders. With 22 teams (all 19 WorldTour teams and 3 Pro Continental teams) of 9 riders each, 198 riders will make the start.

    18 of the 21 stages are mass-start races, in which riders leave in a large group and, depending on how technical the route is, generally finish in groups as well (large groups if it’s a flat stage, smaller groups if there is climbing). Seven of these mass-start stages are classified as flat stages, five are classified as medium mountain stages, and the other six are classified as high mountain stages. Three stages of the 2013 Tour de France are time trials—two are individual time trials, and one is a team time trial. In an individual time trial, riders start by themselves at staggered times and race against the clock for the best time. Drafting is not permitted. Special equipment, including handlebars that extend off the front of the bike allowing for a more aerodynamic position, are permitted in this discipline. A team time trial also uses a staggered start and special equipment, but riders race with their teams and are allowed to ride in their team members’ slipstreams. A team’s riders are awarded the time of the fifth best rider on the team (assuming they had the same or a better time than that rider). This requires the team to work together and plan to finish with at least five members in the group.

    The Tour de France is one of cycling’s three Grand Tours, along with the Giro d’Italia (Tour of Italy), held in May and won this year by Vincenzo Nibali, and the Vuelta a España (Tour of Spain), held in August and September and won most recently (2012) by two-time Tour de France champion Alberto Contador. As with all Grand Tours, the Tour de France involves many different competitions across its three weeks. Some riders come to the Tour seeking to finish with the best overall time in a quest for what is known as the General Classification (GC). The GC leader wears an iconic yellow jersey while he retains the lead. Typically, the rider who wins the yellow jersey is a skilled climber and time trialist, as it is on these types of stages where the biggest gaps between riders tend to form. Last year’s winner was Bradley Wiggins of Team Sky. Wiggins will not be riding in this year’s Tour de France; Team Sky will instead be led by last year’s runner-up, Chris Froome.

    Other riders come to the Tour with other objectives. Each of the Tour’s 21 stages is a race in and of itself, and winning an individual stage of a stage race at this level is a highly coveted honor. In addition to the General Classification, the Tour de France (like many other stage races) has a Points Classification, in which riders compete to accrue the most points, awarded for high placings at the finish line of each stage, and at intermediate sprint points along the way. Unlike the overall classification, the points classification does not penalize riders for having bad days. It doesn’t reward them for finishing in the back of a large bunch, either. Points are only awarded for placing highly at intermediate sprints and the finish line. While riders aiming for the General Classification have no special incentive to race to the line when finishing in a group, the Points Classification exists to award those who do push for the finish line even when the peloton is traveling en masse. Naturally, this classification is especially coveted by those riders who specialize in sprinting to the finish line. The leader in the Points Classification wears a Green Jersey. Last year’s winner was Peter Sagan of Cannondale.

    The most highly placed GC rider who is 25 years of age or younger gets to wear a White Jersey, denoting the leader of the “Young Rider” classification. Last year’s winner was American Tejay van Garderen of Team BMC.

    The polka dot jersey is awarded to the rider who accrues the most mountain points: steep climbs are categorized by difficulty, from Category 4 (easiest) to Hors Categorie (French for “beyond classification,” hardest), and the first riders over the tops of these climbs score mountain points for their efforts. Quite often, the mountains classification is won by a climbing specialist who does not have a strong hope for winning the GC, and is therefore allowed to ride ahead on some stages. The winner can be difficult to predict, as the polka dot jersey often goes to a rider who begins the race with GC aspirations but for whatever reason has to shift focus. Last year’s winner was Thomas Voeckler of French team Europcar.

    Rider Overview

    Yellow Jersey Favorites:

    • Chris Froome (UK) – Sky
      • Odds-on favorite (literally, he has better than 1:1 right now), though given the enormity of the task of winning the TdF, Froome vs. the field is a really close call. The 28-year-old was runner up in last year’s Tour to teammate Bradley Wiggins, though on multiple stages it was clear that Froome was the stronger rider. He’s been almost untouchable on the bike this year, winning big stage races like the Tour de Romandie and the recent Critérium du Dauphiné, and coming in second to Vinny Nibali in Tirreno-Adriatico. He can do it all, but some are concerned he may have peaked too early…
    • Alberto Contador (ESP) – Saxo-Tinkoff
      • Contador is the rider with the most experience winning Grand Tours. Whereas Froome has yet to win a Grand Tour, Contador’s won all three, and he’s won the Tour twice and was the winner of a third until it was stripped from him after a positive test for clenbuterol. Won last year’s Vuelta in his first Grand Tour back from suspension… BUT he hasn’t looked great this year, and was decidedly not awesome at the Dauphiné. Perhaps he will peak at just the right time. Many dismiss his poor performances so far this year as irrelevant. Got his start really young so while he’s been around awhile, but he’s only 30.
    • Joaquim “Purito” Rodriguez (ESP) – Katusha
      • Climbing specialist who has nine Grand Tour top 10s and numerous stage wins, to go along with a boatload of podium finishes in the big single day climbing races. He’s not much in a time trial, but the Tour organizers have done a smart thing by reducing the number of individual time trials from 3 to 2, and making one of them hilly, so the course suits him better than ever. At 34, he’s starting to get up there. Not a great Dauphiné performance.
    • Alejandro Valverde (ESP) – Movistar
      • Winner of the 2009 Vuelta, two-time winner of the biggest single-day climbing race in the sport (Liege-Bastogne-Liege), and winner of a boatload of Grand Tour stages, Valverde is an all-rounder with climbing ability. To boot, he has a killer team backing him up, with young dark horse Nairo Quintana and winner of the Tour de Suisse Rui Costa to help out. Not great at the Dauphiné, not terrible.
    • Richie Porte (AUS) – Sky
      • Froome’s top lieutenant and a heck of a racer in his own right, Sky could go 1-2 overall (which they did in the Dauphiné). Unlike last year, when Froome looked stronger than Wiggins on a number of days and their lukewarm relationship was clear (and blossomed into something worse this year), this year will see Sky led by two guys who really like each other and who hang out a lot, so a leadership crisis is less likely. Porte’s been really strong for the last two years and is hitting his prime.
    • Cadel Evans (AUS) – BMC
      • Old-man Cadel took third at the Giro and he’s in a weird position now. On the one hand, not many people expected him to be so strong at the Giro. On the other hand, 1) Ryder Hesjedal and Bradley Wiggins both dropped out of the Giro, and 2) Cadel sort of faded as the race went on, finishing third to Sky’s Rigoberto Uran. So now nobody really knows how to view Cadel. He struggled in last year’s Tour in the mountains and finished 7th.
    • Tejay van Garderen (USA) – BMC
      • 5th in last year’s TdF and might have taken 4th if he hadn’t had to wait for team leader Cadel a bunch of times. He won the Tour of California in commanding fashion, but there weren’t that many real superstars there. Then he went and had a dud of a Tour de Suisse. BMC named Cadel the team leader again, but that could just be smoke and mirrors. It seems likely that Tejay won’t get held back this year if he can prove that the Suisse was a fluke and that he still has his form. He’s a strong climber and a very strong time trialist. He’s 24 and he’s from Tacoma, WA. Moved to Bozeman, MT as a kid. Speaks Dutch. Not counting team time trials (BMC is killer in a TTT, but the TTT in this year’s Tour is short enough that it’ll be a relatively pointless day with not much in the way of time differences) he’s never actually won a WorldTour race (Tour of California was on the America Tour, and although the biggest race on that tour and attended by plenty of stars like Sagan, not as huge as, say, the Critérium du Dauphiné). He doesn’t seem to really care about stage wins either. Even if he doesn’t mount much of a challenge for yellow, he’ll still be in contention for the young rider classification.

    GC Outsiders (alternatively, possible mountain stage winners if they fall off of GC):

    • Thibaut Pinot (FRA) – FDJ
      • 23 year old French rider who was 10th last year, second to Tejay for the young rider jersey, and he won a stage, too. Looked good in the Suisse last week. Basically has immense pressure on him because he’s the first French rider in years who looks capable of being a superstar. Can climb with the best of them and is a great candidate to win a late climbing stage if he falls of the lead for GC and the yellow contenders don’t mind him going off ahead. Stage 15 falls on Bastille Day, and if he’s out of contention for GC, he or some other French rider will try to climb the summit finish first for national glory.
    • Nairo Quintana (COL) – Movistar
      • 23 year old rising star who can climb like crazy. Beat Richie Porte and Alberto Contador in the Tour of the Basque Country earlier this year and did it while putting in a beast time trial performance that was somewhat unexpected. He weighs 130 pounds. Grew up dirt poor. Feel good story kinda kid.
    • Jurgen van den Broeck (BEL) – Lotto-Belisol
      • Four Grand Tour top 10s, and a good climber.
    • Dan Martin (IRL) – Garmin-Sharp
      • 26 year old who has won major shorter stage races, a stage at the Vuelta, and most recently, the aforementioned Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Likely to pack a heck of a punch with Garmin’s three-pronged attack, but it’s unclear whether he’s built to handle three weeks of racing. He needs to show now whether he’s up for it or whether he is more of a shorter race kinda guy. Awesome climber and a great bet to win climbing stages. Still unproven as a time trialist.
    • Ryder Hesjedal (CAN) – Garmin-Sharp
      • Won the 2012 Giro and has top 10ed in the TdF and a bunch of single day climbing races. Integral to teammate Dan Martin’s LBL win earlier this year. Big favorite for the Giro but he got sick/didn’t look that great anyway so he dropped out. Then he crashed out of the Tour de Suisse. Who knows? If he’s on form he’s awesome at everything. Big if.
    • Bauke Mollema (NED) – Belkin
      • Best rider (climbing-oriented) on a strong team Belkin (who took on that name today after several months without sponsorship, during which time they went by the awesome name “Blanco”). Won the green jersey in the Vuelta in 2011 (the Vuelta is so hilly that climbers who can sprint win the green pretty often, which is kinda weird compared to the Tour). 2nd in this year’s Tour de Suisse. Blanco/Belkin has a bunch of young Dutch guys with loads of talent who have yet to prove themselves. Hopefully he doesn’t fall apart.
    • Andrew Talansky (USA) – Garmin-Sharp
      • Florida-born Talansky has had some great results in his young career (he’s 24). He was 7th in last year’s Vuelta. He was 2nd to Porte in Paris-Nice this year (Tejay was 4th). Unfortunately, he got really sick at the Dauphiné and now it’s hard to say how well he’s prepared. Garmin-Sharp has three really strong riders, but Talansky is least likely to be “team leader.” Seems likely that Hesjedal will be captain or co-captain with Martin.
    • Andy Schleck (LUX) – Radioshack-Leopard-Trek
      • Has earns a mention as someone worth knowing even though it’s extremely unlikely that he’ll win. He’s one of the biggest names in the sport. Four Grand Tour podium appearances and he’s still relatively young (28). Winner of the 2010 Tour after Contador was stripped of his result. Winner of Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Superstar climber. In 2012 he crashed hard and took a little time off. Had ample time to recover but he has barely finished a race since then. He’s done nothing of note since taking 2nd overall and a stage in the 2011 TdF, and doesn’t look good this year. Many question his resolve. Lots of media spotlight because he’s done so well in the past.

    Green Jersey Favorites:

    • Peter Sagan (SVK) – Cannondale
      • Winner of last year’s green jersey, Sagan is an incredibly versatile rider. He can win on all but the most mountainous stages. He’ll be near the top for the flat stages. He’s a beast and he’s only 23. Fiery and totally dominant whenever the field has dropped the guys who are flat sprinters. They call him the terminator. Won the green last year. Sometimes called a sprinter but he’s shown that he deserves to be considered an all-rounder, just last week the only Points-hopeful to stick with the GC contenders over some very steep climbs in the Tour de Suisse.
    • Mark Cavendish (UK) – OmegaPharma-Quickstep
      • Fastest man on a bike, assuming the road is perfectly flat and he doesn’t have to go all-out for too long. Cav will probably win the most stages, but there will be a number of stages that Sagan can win where Cav won’t make it with the main group; on the flip side, on the really flat stages, Sagan will still be there in the top 20, so it’s likely that Cav will win more stages but Sagan will finish highly in a bunch of stages and win the green. Known as the Manx Missile (because he’s from the Isle of Man, self-governing Crown Dependency in between Britain and Ireland). Likes to win on the Champs-Elysses, where he has yet to be beaten.
    • Andre Greipel (GER) – Lotto-Belisol
      • Cav’s main competition on the very flat stages. The finish in Paris is likely to come down to these two. Will turn 31 in July but he seems to still have plenty of power. Won three stages in last year’s Tour. Known as the “Gorilla.” Clearly, sprinters get the best nicknames.

    Other Points Hopefuls:

    • Marcel Kittel (GER) – Argos-Shimano
      • There are guys who can climb and then sprint (Sagan is so good at this he warrants being called in all-rounder), and guys who focus on the dead sprint to the lines in a pancake flat (Cavendish/Greipel). Argos-Shimano is coming to the Tour to win stages, and they have two star riders that neatly fit into each category and therefore, shouldn’t be competing with each other. Kittel is the man for the flats. He’s 25 and he’s had a good year so far.
    • John Degenkolb (GER) – Argos-Shimano
      • Degs is the Argos sprinter who can climb. He’s at his best on tougher “flat” stages that have hills to drop the pure sprinters. He won a whopping 5 stages at last year’s Vuelta, and he took another win in stage 5 of the Giro this year.
    • Matthew Goss (AUS) – Orica-GreenEdge
      • In 2011 he won one of the five Monuments, Milan-San Remo, and stages in Paris-Nice and the Tour Down Under, and he also finished 2nd in the World Championships. He has shown that can sprint with the best of them—and yet, after driving expectations quite high early in his career, he hasn’t been able to meet those expectations recently. He’s only 26, but he needs to win more at Grand Tours to show that he has what it takes. Unfortunately, he’s sort of like Barkley or Malone or Ewing or anyone else who didn’t live in Chicago in the 90s. Hard to prove yourself when there are guys who will one day be considered all-time greats taking all the wins.
    • Edvald Boasson Hagen (NOR) – Sky
      • Boasson Hagen has Sagan’s ability to win nearly anywhere—he can even time trial, winning the Norway national champs six times, and he’s only 26! He’s won shorter stage races and single-day classics. He has one of the best team’s the world has ever seen backing him up. Unfortunately, Sky ain’t here to get Boasson Hagen stage wins, so it’s hard to say whether he’ll have the support he deserves. Wiggins was happy to be the leadout man for Cavendish last year when they both raced together (a sight not often seen, the yellow jersey in a leadout). We’ll see if Froome and Porte are as supportive of Eddy Boss’s hopes against Sagan, Degenkolb and Goss.
    • Alexander Kristoff (NOR) – Katusha
      • Another powerful rider from Norway, Kristoff looked strong at the Tour de Suisse and will be gunning for a win or two in France, though his team will be mostly made up of climbers in support of Joaquim Rodriguez.
    • Tyler Farrar (USA) – Garmin-Sharp
      • America’s best sprinter. He’s won stages in all three Grand Tours, as well as the Vattenfall Cyclassics twice. If he were from Wallonia (that’s in Belgium) instead of Wenatchee, Washington, he’d be a sports star in his homeland. Will be tough for him to get a win in against such awesome competition.
    • Philippe Gilbert (BEL) – BMC
      • Current holder of the world champion’s rainbow jersey, but yet to win a race this year. A puncheur who likes to charge over short steep climbs, Gilbert has a strong finishing kick on lumpy stages but will be up against difficult competition from Sagan on the less mountainous stages and the GC guys/his own limitations on the bigger climbs.

    Other Names:

    • Jens Voigt (GER) – Radioshack-Leopard-Trek
      • His sixteenth TdF, and he’s now participated in more than 15% of the Tours ever ridden. Best on rolling hills often seen in transitional stages too hilly for the traditional sprinters, wins by breaking away from the peloton, usually when there are undulations all the way to the finish, preventing the peloton from gaining too much of a drafting advantage to catch back up.
    • Simon Gerrans (AUS) – Orica GreenEdge
      • Another guy who likes hilly stages. He’s a very smart rider and he’s won stages of all three Grand Tours. He can hang on in a breakaway and he can sprint well, too. Won last year’s Milan-San Remo.
    • Thomas Voeckler (FRA) – Europcar
      • French rider who can climb and win in a breakaway. Won the Mountains Jersey last year to go along with two stages.
    • Pierre Rolland (FRA) – Europcar
      • Young French climber who can get into a breakaway and may try something on Bastille Day.
    • Tony Martin (GER) – OmegaPharma-Quickstep
      • Best time trialist in the world. You probably won’t see him much except on stage 10, a scenic time trial to Mont Saint-Michel, and possibly stage 17, which is hillier and might be too much for him. But if you do tune in to watch the beautiful helicopter shots over Mont Saint-Michel, expect to see him near the top of the leaderboard on the day.

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by Adam Bowie.

  • Critérium du Dauphiné 2013 Post-race Impressions: Chris Froome Distances Himself from the Competition

    FroomeWinBrief Recap

    Chris Froome’s dominant performance at the Dauphiné cements him as the favorite heading into this year’s Tour de France. After salvaging a very impressive Giro performance from the shambles of Bradley Wiggins’s withdrawal, Sky took the Dolphin by storm, and they will certainly be the force to be reckoned with once again at this year’s Tour de France. The race kicked off with three stages of relative calm in the General Classification, leaving all of the big favorites equal heading into a stage 4 Individual Time Trial. Froome took third on the day, 52 seconds back of TTing superstar Tony Martin, and in doing so he picked up a big chunk of time over major rivals Alejandro Valverde (3:29 back of the leader Martin), Alberto Contador (3:37 behind the leader), and Joaquim Rodriguez (3:48 back). Froome’s top lieutenant Richie Porte also had a strong fourth day (1:20 behind Martin), and while that fourth stage put Garmin’s Rohan Dennis in yellow for the day, the decisive day gave Sky’s leader and his second a commanding lead over the rest of the main contenders, and it was only a matter of time before Froome took and held the yellow. He charged past Contador on Stage 5’s uphill finish to take the stage win and the overall lead, and didn’t look back from there, holding onto the race lead without much of a challenge into the final stage in the mountain town of Risoul, where took second in the stage and closed the deal on GC.

    The final General Classification top 10 looked like this:

    1. Christopher Froome (GBr) Sky Procycling | 29:28:46

    2. Richie Porte (Aus) Sky Procycling | +0:00:58

    3. Daniel Moreno Fernandez (Spa) Katusha | +0:02:12

    4. Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Astana Pro Team | +0:02:18

    5. Daniel Navarro Garcia (Spa) Cofidis, Solutions Credits | +0:02:20

    6. Michael Rogers (Aus) Team Saxo-Tinkoff | +0:03:08

    7. Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Movistar Team | +0:03:12

    8. Rohan Dennis (Aus) Garmin-Sharp | +0:03:24

    9. Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi | +0:04:25

    10. Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Team Saxo-Tinkoff | +0:04:27

    Outside the top 10, Joaquim Rodriguez finished the race in 16th, 9:04 down on Froome.

    Takeaways

    The big four names heading into the Critérium du Dauphiné were Froome, Contador, Valverde, and Rodriguez. Froome distanced himself from all three rather quickly. He proved that he was the far better time trialist, but also that his climbing skills are tuned and ready for the three week struggle to come. Contador looked off-form all week. He didn’t really show up for the time trial, and his best efforts to outclimb Froome were unsuccessful. He insists that he is right where he wants to be in the run-up to the TdF, and it’s very important to remember that for some of the guys out there in the Dauphiné, actually winning the race is an afterthought to the main objective, getting in a little practice time. Perhaps this is all that guys like Joaquim Rodriguez wanted out of the Dauphiné; it should be noted that of the prior six Dauphiné winners, only Bradley Wiggins went on to win that year’s Tour de France.

    Still, it’s hard to argue with Froome’s dominance at the head of the race, and with minutes worth of time separating him and his biggest challengers, he goes into the Tour de France with a lot of confidence. This isn’t really all that surprising, given his strong performances in Romandie (1st) and Tirreno-Adriatico (2nd to Giro winner Vincenzo Nibali) so far this year. He’s the man to beat, no doubt, but what was maybe a bit surprising was the stellar performance of his second in command, this year’s Paris-Nice winner Richie Porte. It doesn’t seem like this sets up any sort of in-team rivalry (Porte and Froome are close friends and training partners), which means Sky must be thrilled to have two guys who are so on-form heading into the Tour. Impressive stuff. Contador, on the other hand, doesn’t seem to be panicking, but he has yet to notch an overall win this year and, though he finished in the top 10 in each, always looked just a step below the competition in Tirreno-Adriatico, Pais Vasco, and this week’s Critérium du Dauphiné.

    Other impressors: Though Purito’s performance was disappointing, his teammate on Katusha, La Fleche Wallone winner and two-time Vuelta top-10 man Daniel Moreno, rounded out the podium with a week of strong climbing (not that we expected anything different). He looks like he hasn’t lost the form that he had in the Ardennes Classics this spring. Brief race leader Rohan Dennis finished in 8th place (the second Kiwi in the top 10 with Michael Rogers) and first in the Young Rider classification: Garmin-Sharp must be thrilled with his continuing success he only turned 23 the week before the race started. Elia Viviani finally took his first win of the after a string of close finishes in the Giro. Gianni Meersman took the Sprinter’s jersey without winning a stage, with top three finishes in the first three stages. Andrew Talansky, one of the favorites heading into the race after a 2nd place in Paris-Nice this year, caught sick at the beginning of the race and dropped out of overall contention immediately. However, he stayed in the race and recovered over the course of the week, crossing the line immediately behind Froome to take a solid third on the final stage; surely he would have preferred to go through the whole race in full health to get a sense of his form for the upcoming Tour, but he’ll take encouragement from this last day.

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by Agamitsudo.