VeloHuman

Tag: Chris Horner

  • Vuelta a España 2013 Post-race Impressions: Ring in the Old, Ring in the New

    Podium

    Even More Unpredictable Than Predicted

    Now that the peloton has finally ended its journey in Madrid, we can look back on a few of the storylines. The biggest storyline of the Vuelta is obviously the succcess of Christopher Horner, who improved on his previous best Grand Tour performance (a lone top 10, 9th in the Tour de France in 2010) by winning the race ahead of past winners Vincenzo Nibali and Joaquim Rodriguez. He won a stage early on and it seemed like a great feel-good story, the balding veteran outclassing the favorites for a day; then he proceeded to look stronger and stronger each day, ultimately dropping Nibali and the rest nearly whenever he set his mind to it. This was always going to be a race for a strong climber (the only individual time trial had a categorized climb right in the middle of it), and Horner was unquestioably the best climber in Spain these past three weeks. Obviously there are a lot of theories on how he managed to take everyone by surprise and dominate the ascents, but clearly fresh legs played a part, as Horner had little mileage prior to the start of the Vuelta, unlike the rest of the big favorites, who had all taken on the Giro or the Tour already. Similarly, Contador hadn’t raced a Grand Tour before his Vuelta win last year, and Juan Jose Cobo’s 2011 Vuelta was his first Grand Tour of the year as well. Future hopefuls should take note.

    It’s important to note that as old as he is, it’s not like Horner came out of nowhere. His career has had an interesting arc: much of his prime was spent racing (and really dominating) the American circuit. When he did finally start to concentrate on the higher level Euro competition, he was already well into his 30s: but he had a lot of success, and didn’t really see any decline as he aged either. As recently as 2010 (the year he top 10ed in the Tour), he won Pais Vasco. He was 2nd there and 4th in Catalunya in 2011 (a year in which he also won the Tour of California), was 2nd in Tirreno-Adriatico and 9th in Pais Vasco in 2012, and was 6th at Tirreno-Adriatico this year. None of those results come close to winning the Vuelta, but they show that he’s quietly built quite a resume very late in his career: a Grand Tour win will be the perfect marquee accomplishment for the 41 year old. The question now is: where will he be next year? As explosive and resilient as he was in the Tour of Spain, he doesn’t have a team for next year. It’s only a matter of time before someone makes him an appealing offer commit his smiles and his small frame to their cause.

    After losing the race he was so heavily favored to win just a week ago, Vincenzo Nibali probably isn’t smiling, but taking 1st place in a grueling Giro and then 2nd place in the Vuelta with all those Italian miles already in your legs is an unbelievable accoomplishment that deserves recognition even if it was disappointing for Nibali. A single Grand Tour podium in a year is a feat worthy enough of praise. Winning one and runnering up a second? Vincenzo Nibali will be one of a very select group of riders who will be seen as legitimate challengers to Froome in the 2014 Tour de France. Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim Rodriguez can both come away proud; Valverde nabbed the final spot on the podium after his disappointing Tour de France, and he also won the points jersey despite not actually winning any stages. Purito wanted more, but 4th and a beautiful stage victory on Alto del Naranco will look great in his Palmares.

    Nicolas Roche entered the race with a stated goal of coming in in the top 5. 5th overall and a stage win felt like a long time coming for the rider who has displayed a lot of talent in the past few years, but never come away with much to show for it. And not to take anything away from winning a stage later on during a Grand Tour, but Roche’s victory came early in the race, against his GC rivals: no gimmes there. AG2R won’t mind Carlos Betancur’s complete anonymity so much given Domenico Pozzovivo’s 6th place overall performance. He quietly notched a pair of Grand Tour top 10s this year without all that much team support.

    Thibaut Pinot rolled in 7th overall, dispelling a great deal of doubt after his forgettable Tour de France. He’s definitely gotten back on track: he didn’t seem to struggle on the descents, and he hung with the likes of Nibali and Horner for a good part of many of the hardest climbs. Remember, he’s only 23, and he’s now got a pair of Grand Tour top 10s to his name. With a focused offseason, Thibaut Pinot will hope to build on this late success next year. Another young GC rider who really stood out was Leopold Konig. Nabbing a GT Top 10 at the head of a Pro Continental team against stacked squads like Astana and Movistar is quite the feat. Like Roche, his stage victory was early on in the race, meaning that he had to outclass the best in the bunch to pick it up. And Daniel Moreno (10th) nabs his 3rd Vuelta top 10 in as many year, and perhaps even more impressively, on the heels of a major one-day victory in La Fleche Wallonne, he picked up two early stage wins, and held three different jerseys for a time; he’s following in his team leader’s footsteps, making a name for himself as a killer uphill finisher with the ability to find his way into a Grand Tour leaderboard as well.

    Samuel Sanchez will be disappointed with 8th, but most observers didn’t view him as much more than an outside contender coming in. He never seemed to find his form, and it’s starting to look as if his best years are behind him. At least he comes away with more than fellow old guys Michele Scarponi and Ivan Basso–Basso didn’t really look all that bad in this race, but he vacated his 7th overall spot when he abandoned on a nasty Stage 14.

    The biggest disappointment of the Vuelta has to be Team Sky. Sergio Henao came into the race as one of the favorites, and Rigoberto Uran was touted as a great second option if things went awry; awry they went, as neither rider was able to keep the pace when the road went up. To his credit, Uran came so close to a victory from a breakaway on Stage 16, but was denied by Warren Bargul at the line. Vasil Kiryienka’s stage win (actually the third career Grand Tour stage victory for the Belarusian, which is the same number that his teammate Bradley Wiggins has) was some consolation, but for all Henao’s potential, he failed to deliver in a big way.

    Youth Is Served Winning Stages, and So Is the Rainbow Jersey

    Michael Matthews and Warren Barguil have arrived. Matthews, the 22 year old Aussie sprinter, had been having enough success in smaller races this year that I definitely saw big things for him in the Vuelta, and he did not disappoint, winning first on the 5th stage and again on the final day of festivities in Madrid. For the past few years, Orica-GreenEdge has looked to one of his teammates on the sprint stages, especially the ones with hard roads to the finish line, but it looks like the time of Michael Matthews is upon us. Meanwhile, Maximiliano Richeze racked up four top 3 stage performances but failed to come away with a victory, which must be a heartbreak: he really looked like one of the fastest riders in the peloton, and was inches away from winning on multiple occasions. In a similar boat were Tyler Farrar and Gianni Meersman, who both made a habit of lurking around the top 5 on the sprint stages (four times), without ever notching a victory. Meersman gets a pass, as he has already had a great year up to this point, but Farrar ends his year looking desperately for his old winning ways. Clearly he’s still fast, but his only victories in the past two years have come in Continental Tours; the American doesn’t have a contract for next year, and obviously a big win would have helped make his case.

    23 year old Warren Barguil took a brilliant win from the breakaway in Stage 13. Then, Barguil did it again on Stage 16 ahead of the immensely talented Rigoberto Uran in a drag race to the line. Taking a victory like that ahead of the explosive Giro and Olympic Road Race runner-up marks Barguil as a name to watch for the future. For his Argos-Shimano squad, it was “No Kittel or Degenkolb, no problem” in Spain this year. FDJ’s Alexandre Geniez and Kenny Elissonde both won mountain stages as breakaway survivors. And in stage after stage, 25 year old Nicolas Edet of Cofidis was constantly leading the breakers over the KOMs: he earned himself the title of King of the Mountains in the process. Seeing a pattern? All in all, France’s 25 and under crowd of Barguil, Geniez, Elissonde, Edet, and Pinot took between them four stage victories, the polka dot jersey, and 7th overall in GC; quite a haul for les Francois after they came up short of expectations in the Tour de France.

    Another impressive young breaker was Daniele Ratto, who won a grueling 14th stage that saw mass abandons all by himself on a mountaintop finish.

    Zdenek Stybar isn’t exactly young (27), but he’s young to road racing, and the former CX world champ added to his amazing year jumping ahead late with Philippe Gilbert and beating him a photo finish to steal the 7th stage from the sprinters at Mairena de Aljafare.

    Fortunately, Gilbert’s long, demoralizing drought of victories in the rainbow jersey ended in the following week when he outsprinted Edvald Boasson Hagen and Maximiliano Richeze to win stage 12. He’s come very close time and time again this year, but a win has eluded him. Outsprinting some of the fastest men in this race to get it meant that he ended his wait in grand style.

    Three weeks of racing have finally come to a close, and in the end, the Vuelta was full of surprises for riders both young and old. We were treated to visions of riders who could be around for years to come (riders like Matthews, Stybar, Barguil, Konig, and Pinot), and of riders who finally took long awaited victories (Horner and Gilbert). Up next? The race that so many of these big names were preparing for when they decided to make the trip to Spain: the 2013 UCI World Championships.

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by Esteban Lamas

  • Vuelta a España 2013 Day 21: Where We Stand After Nineteen Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 20-21

    UpAngliru

    Day 21: Angliru Awaits

    When the Vuelta organizers decided to put the Alto de L’Angliru on the penultimate stage, they were obviously hoping (against the odds) that the Tour of Spain would come down to an epic showdown on one of the sport’s most famous climbs. When Nibali’s Astana squad took a commanding early lead, it appeared that this race was all but wrapped up, but Christopher Horner has seemed to gain seconds on the favorite basically every time the road has gone up at the finish. Somehow, the 41 year old American closed the early gap, then lost time in the individual time trial, and now has closed the gap again. He and Nibali finished together with the group on Stage 17, which Bauke Mollema won with a brilliant long range sprint that caught some big fastmen by surprise. Horner crossed the line well ahead of the Italian on Stage 18, behind breakaway survivor Vasil Kiriyenka (who put in a massive solo effort that Sky will be proud of). Earlier today, Horner reclaimed the red jersey by just seconds when a small gap formed at the stage finish (behind the day’s winner, Joaquim Rodriguez, whose team was motivated enough to pull back a breakaway that everyone thoguht would succeed). In the past few days, he’s just been a better climber, plain and simple, and throughout this race he’s had the explosive flair to gain time at the line (an ability that has nabbed him two stage wins so far). Nibali, on the other hand, has appeared to lose a step in the past few days. In fact, even Rodriguez and Valverde have gained a little on the Giro winner: his once seemingly unassailable lead has totally crumbled. It all comes down to tomorrow, when the peloton takes on perhaps its most daunting challenge.

    Stage 20: Aviles > Alto de L’Angliru | 142.2km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

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    The stage is short but brutal: 142.2 kilometers, but with a succession of climbs that get progressively harder and harder. A Category 3 is followed by a Cat. 2 right around the halfway point. Then the riders will take on the very steep Alto del Cordal, a Category 1 climb, whose summit is only 8.2 kilometers from the foot of the final ascent of the Vuelta, Alto de L’Angliru. It’s one of the most famous mountains in the sport, and one of the most demanding: 12.2 kilometers at an incredible 10.2%, grading out at a maximum of 23.5% not far from the top. Apart from a tiny blip where the road dips slighly down for a hundred meters or so a few kilometers up (a section that is followed by a stretch at 21%), there is really no respite anywhere on this monster until you get to the top. The roads are windy and narrow. And the riders will be taking this beast on after a hard, high-speed day up and over some serious climbs. It’s not for the faint of heart. The long, unrelenting drag does not make it easy to attack. It’s the sort of test that requires a massive tank: this is a mountain about which former pro Patrice Halgand said that “on the Angliru the guys go too pitifully for the climb to have any sporting interest. Even the winner goes up in slow motion. There’s no attacking. From front to rear, everyone just gets up as best he can.”

    Nibali’s recent fading makes predicting this stage quite difficult. On the one hand, the stage favors Nibali’s skillset more than many of the shorter, more explosive finishes that we’ve seen so far, but on the other hand, the past few days don’t instill any confidence in Vincenzo Nibali’s ability to pull this one out. Bookmakers seem to be favoring all three of Horner, Rodriguez, and Valverde over him for the stage win. If I had to make a prediction (and I do, since this is a preview!) I do think it will come down to a field of the GC contenders and a select group of star climbers who stay with them rather than an early breakaway, but I also think that Nibali’s chances are being underrated. Sustained uphill effort is Nibali’s bread and butter. It’s what won him the Giro. He also has his elite squad of lieutenants on a day where the pace will be high, while Horner has lost two of his strongest teammates, Fabian Cancellara and Haimar Zubeldia. In other words, I won’t write Nibali off so easily. But I think Horner will be right there: he’s been unflappable so far and he’s passed every test he’s faced, even if this test is in a class of its own. I expect Rodriguez to make moves and I expect Valverde to try to counter, though Purito has looked really strong. I don’t see any of the rest of the top 10 finishing ahead of them. I do think that Igor Anton, Diego Ulissi, Rigoberto Uran, or Michele Scarponi could be allowed to go ahead for the stage win: Anton’s come very close here before, and Scarponi and Ulissi have looked good lately. Uran seems to be picking his battles, and Horner has shown the value of fresh legs in this race, wearing red in his first Grand Tour of the year while the rest of the GC favorites struggle to maintain their form across multiple three-week challenges. Mikel Nieve, Jose Herrada, Chris Anker Sorensen and Rafal Majka, and, of course, Warren Barguil could also try to strike ahead for glory with a legitimate shot at the victory, either from an early breakaway (probably less likely to win) or from the pack at the start of the climb.

    This is the stage that will decide the Vuelta, so it’s a must-see. I never thought I’d be considering Chris Horner the favorite to win on L’Angliru and to therefore win the whole race, but here we are. Hopefully the rest of the contenders can keep it interesting.

    VeloHuman Stage Favorites

    1. Chris Horner | 2. Vincenzo Nibali | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez | 4. Alejandro Valverde

    Stage 21: Leganes > Madrid | 109.6km | Flat

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    After they climb one of the hardest mountains out there, the riders get to end their Vuelta with a less-than-110-kilometer parade to the finish in Madrid. It is, as they say, as flat as a pancake. Hard to see this ending any other way than with a bunch sprint.It may seem a bit less climactic than the previous day’s GC showdown, but there are some very quick men who have waited three weeks for this perfectly flat day guaranteed to go to a sprinter. Denied by late attackers on multiple days that seemed guaranteed to be sprint-fests, a few of the fastest ones still have yet to win a stage this race: Edvald Boasson Hagen, Maximiliano Richeze, and Tyler Farrar. They finished in that order behind a surprising Bauke Mollema on stage 17. Boasson Hagen has been hell-bent on winning a stage recently, jumping into break after break. Richeze has consistently looked like one of the fastest guys out there. And, of course, Tyler Farrar has actually won the final stage of the Vuelta before. Meanwhile, Michael Matthews, who looked so hot at the start of the race, and who won the 5th stage, and Gianni Meersman, who came in as perhaps the sprinter most favored to win at least one stage seemhave faded a bit, but Matthews showed awesome top end speed just two weeks ago, and Meersman has been close a bunch of times (and has taken big wins against some big names this year). Maybe Michael Morkov’s earlier win was a flash in the pan, but his track racing style will appreciate the lack of selective climbs on the final stage. Guys like Adrien Petit, Robert Wagner, Anthony Roux, Luca Paolini, Paul Voss, Grega Bole and Juan Antonio Flecha, Leigh Howard if OGE actually decides to support him instead of Matthews, and either member of the Argos duo of Reinardt Janse van Rensburg and Nikias Arndt are the outsider picks, but I think it will be hard for an outsider pick to take it in the finale. Eddy Bos and Richeze are probably my favorites, and since I have to give the nod to someone, I’ll give it to the experienced, proven winner from Norway, though I think it’s a really close call here.

    VeloHuman Stage Favorites

    1. Edvald Boasson Hagen | 2. Maximiliano Richeze | 3. Tyler Farrar | 4. Michael Matthews

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by Mikel Ortega.

  • Vuelta a España 2013 Day 11: Where We Stand After Ten Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 11-13

    EBH

    Day 11: Turning Back the Clock

    The past few days have proven decisive for a number of outside GC contenders in the Vuelta. Not long after my last update, Dan Martin withdrew with a concussion. In Stage 8, Bauke Mollema lost enough time to put himself out of the conversation, and Roman Kreuziger apparently started to have a heart problem that would, over the coming stages, drop him out of the conversation as well.

    “Up-and-comer” Leopold Konig did, in fact, take Stage 8 with a well-timed, well-executed attack. The other top names were close behind. Moreno continued to look strong on a parcours that appeared to be designed perfectly for him and his teammate Joaquim Rodriguez on stage 9. And Stage 10? Perhaps it’s time to finally start believing that Chris Horner is the real deal. I used the vague terms “serious GC showdown” and “riders on elite form” to describe how Stage 10 would play out, but I’ll admit I wasn’t really thinking of the Radioshack veteran: all along I’ve been expecting him to fade, but he hasn’t yet, and he managed to drop everyone on the slopes of Alto Hazallanas on his way to the top. Vincenzo Nibali, however, was not all that far behind and a fair bit ahead of the other contenders, and unfortunately for Horner, a time trial looms. The American took the red jersey back from Dani Moreno, but I fear he won’t wear it long.

    Stage 11: Tarazona | 38.8km | Individual Time Trial

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    It’s an individual time trial with a Cat. 3 climb right at the heart of it, but it’s not so steep as to make me believe that anyone other than Tony Martin is going to win it. He’s the man to beat in all but the most difficult climber-oriented time trials, and betting against him on flatter days and even pseudo-hilly chronos has proven a dangerous decision so far this year. If he can win an ITT in which Nairo Quintana finished ahead of Richie Porte (Stage 6 at the Tour of the Basque Country), he can probably win this. Competition from fellow time trialing superstar Fabian Cancellara will be fierce, and the hill in the middle will help the classics specialist and strong descender, but Spartacus has been doing some hard racing in support of his team leader lately, and will continue to do so. Moreoever, he seems to be focusing more on his mass-start skills than his soloing right now. Like Tony Martin, there are plenty of other time trialing specialists in attendance who have come to the Vuelta with this one stage in mind (though it’s hard to see anyone beating Martin, the odds-on favorite), including Lieuwe Westra, who loves a time trial with a climb or two, Marco Pinotti, Stef Clement, and Luis Leon Sanchez. Edvald Boasson Hagen is more than just a TT specialist, but he’s capable of a high placing. I don’t include Tanel Kangert with those other names because I see him as a pseudo-GC name at the moment (he’s 14th overall) and after being a faithful domestique for Nibali all through the Giro, perhaps Astana will give him the green light to do his best in the Vuelta: he seems to have sacrificed some of his time trialing ability for climbing skills this year, but with this profile, things should balance out. If Astana gives him the go-ahead to ride hard for himself, I see him finishing between 2nd and 5th. Of the marquee names for GC, Nibali stands out head and shoulders above the rest. He’s the only rider in the top 10 with an actual chance to win this time trial, as he has become an elite time trialist at this point in his career, which he showed with commanding performances in the Giro. Ivan Basso, Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim Rodriguez (vastly improved in this discipline) will hope to limit their losses to within a minute of Astana’s leader; the Cat. 3 climb should help with that. Roche and Moreno aren’t great against the clock, but they aren’t terrible, and hanging around relatively close to their current positions is a reasonable expectation, though Roche will likely lose his spot on the virtual podium. I expect Pinot, Majka, Pozzovivo, and, yes, Chris Horner to struggle. None of them has the resume to produce anything other than expectations of large time losses here, though, of course, Chris Horner has been blowing up expectations daily. Samuel Sanchez will be excited about the opportunity to gain a chunk of time on his chase for whatever position he is targeting now that he’s no longer a contender for the red jersey; he has (or at least, had) a strong time trial when he is on form.

    VeloHuman Stage Favorites

    1. Tony Martin | 2. Fabian Cancellara | 3. Vincenzo Nibali | 4. Tanel Kangert

    Stage 12: Maella > Tarragona | 164.2km | Flat

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    After putting up with a few grueling days of climbing and time trialing, the sprinters finally get another day in the (hot Spanish) sun. There is a Category 3 climb to be summitted with more than 70 kilometers to go, but other than that, there isn’t much to keep the fast men from the line. It’s a day for the true sprinters, who must feel cheated after Stybar and Gilbert got the jump on them on the pan-flat Stage 7. Look to some familiar names to stake their claim today, though the dearth of marquee sprint team leaders means that a big bunch of teams have multiple options, and it’s been hard to nail down whom they are favoring in advance. If Orica-GreenEdge is still committed to giving him opportunities, this would be a great day for Leigh Howard, but it’s unclear whether they are just going 100% for Matthews now. It appears that Argos-Shimano favors Janse van Rensburg on the flatter days. Maybe. Nikias Arndt and Ramon Sinkeldam are there, too. Belkin has both Graeme Brown and Robert Wagner, who won the bunch sprint for 3rd on Stage 7. FDJ has Anthony Roux and Geoffrey Soupe. Vacansoleil has been one of the hardest to predict: depsite the presence of ostensibly highly talented sprinter Barry Markus, it has been the immensely mediocre Juan Antonio Flecha who has featured so frequently in the bunch sprints. No longer will Markus be a concern, as he did not finish Stage 10, but the team has sometimes thrown Grega Bole into the mix as well. Andrew Fenn got DQed, ending the sprinting leadership debate at OPQS, at least, though this stage might not be selective enough for Gianni Meersman.

    Sky, Garmin, Lampre, Saxo-Tinkoff, and Cofidis seem to have settled on their sprinters in, respectively: Edvald Boasson Hagen, Tyler Farrar, Maximiliano Richeze, Michael Morkov, and Adrien Petit. I also think that these are some of the strongest sprinting names in the race right now. Richeze has been 2nd twice, and Lampre wants something to show for this Grand Tour. Former track star Michael Morkov will appreciate the uber flat run into the finish on Stage 12. Petit has been improving. Farrar is still searching for that big win, but he hasn’t been too far off the mark.

    VeloHuman Stage Favorites

    1. Maximiliano Richeze | 2. Adrien Petit | 3. Tyler Farrar | 4. Michael Morkov

    Stage 13: Valls > Castelldefels | 169km | Medium Mountains

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    An early Cat. 3 and then a sudden, sheer Cat. 1 will challenge those riders who are likely to have done well on the previous stage. The four and a half kilometer climb at 10.6% could cause serious splits, benefitting the breakaway as the heavier riders try to catch back up to those who get over the hump first, but the top of the Cat. 1 is still some 40 kilometers from the finishing town of Castelldefels, and the road is pretty much downhill or flat all the way home, leaving plenty of time for those who have fallen off to play catchup. As the sprinters’ opportunities are very limited now, they’ll work hard to ensure that this thing ends in a sprint. It likely will, though the group that comes to the line might be reduced and fatigued. Sounds like a perfect opportunity for Michael Matthews to pick up a second stage win, or for Meersman or Boasson Hagen to pick up their first this Vuelta. With higher mountains looming, competition will be fierce, and the likes of Richeze, Petit, Farrar, and other bigger fast men will love the finish if they can just get there in one piece.

    VeloHuman Stage Favorites

    1. Michael Matthews | 2. Edvald Boasson Hagen | 3. Gianni Meersman

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by Tom Ducat-White.