Back into the Saddle
The Clásica de San Sebastián showcases a number of serious climbing specialists and puncheurs, many of whom are getting right back into the saddle after a grueling Tour de France and still looking for chances to shine. The profile is dotted with classic Basque Country climbs. Scaling the Category 1 Jaizkibel twice, the second time about 40 kilometers from the finish line, should force some selection. A Cat 2 with less than 20km to go could provide a springboard for attacks, but it is the unclassified bump in the road just a few kilometers from the end of the race that has played launchpad for many of the races recent winners, including Philippe Gilbert and Luis Leon Sanchez.
Luis Leon Sanchez will be absent from the startlist in 2013. Gilbert is here again this year, but picking him to win anything seems to be a losing game recently. Instead, it looks like this edition will be be a battle royale between some of the biggest names of the recent Tour de France. Of those big names, few riders probably want to make a statement win more than Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde, and the San Sebastian parcours suits his combination of sprinting and climbing. He’ll need to be aggressive (recent winners of this race have been) but he should be capable of both keeping up with last-ditch strikes and outsprinting a select group to the line, and after his terrible luck in the Tour, I don’t think he’ll want for aggression. Omega Pharma-Quick Step sends two potential contenders from Paris to the startling line in Sylvain Chavanel and Michal Kwiatkowski. Chavanel was constantly at the head of the pack in the Tour, but never made much of a mark; doubtless he’ll try something here, but I don’t see him having success against this field on this succession of ascents. The very young Kwiatkowski might be my favorite to win were he not coming off his first Tour effort. Still, he climbed well even into the Alps, and he has had a few days to recover: if Kwiatkowski can hang with the lead group, he can sprint with the best of them, and he can sustain a long distance strike, too. Simon Gerrans is another rider with a strong post-climb sprint, but with Orica GreenEdge’s stable of rouleurs and sprinters-who-can-climb, it is difficult to pick any one to shine ahead of the others. If the team helps him make it to the line, he’s very dangerous in the closing kilometer. Moreno Moser, winner of last year’s Tour de Pologne, showed strong form on the Alpe d’Huez a few days ago. He battled Kwiatkowski fiercely in Poland last year, and I can see both young riders jockeying for position here if a select group finishes together. Roman Kreuziger, in the middle of a career year that includes a win at Amstel Gold, a podium in the Tour de Suisse and a top 10 finish in the Tour, leads a Saxo-Tinkoff team not dissimilar from the Tour squad: Roche and Rogers will be in attendance, too. If he can solo over the Cauberg, Kreuziger can hang on here, as well. Bauke Mollema apparently caught ill in the Tour’s mountain time trial in which he lost so much time. Recovered, he could certainly show up at San Sebastian. He was 5th here last year, his climbing has form has never been better, and lest anyone forget, he had the finishing kick to secure the points classification at the 2011 Vuelta. With no Joaquim Rodriguez, Alexandr Kolobnev looks like Katusha’s best chance here. He was second all the way back in 2008, and this year he’s coming off a strong Tour of Wallonie and will be fresher than many of his Tour-wearied opponents. Lastly, Gilbert’s teammate Greg Van Avermaet is coming off an extremely successful Tour de Wallonie, in which he won two stages, the points classification, and the overall race. He was third here in 2011: whether or not he finishes highly will depend on the pace up the final climbs (and, of course, whether he is targetting a victory Saturday in the first place). He won’t be able to hang with any of the pure climbers if they make any aggressive attacks late, but if things come back together, he could contend with the likes of Simon Gerrans for a sprint finish with a select group.
VeloHuman Predictions
Winner
Alejandro Valverde
Podium
Roman Kreuziger, Michal Kwiatkowski
Other Strong Contenders
Simon Gerrans, Bauke Mollema, Greg van Avermaet, Alexandr Kolobnev, Moreno Moser
-Dane Cash
Photo by malomen.