Tag: Classics

Il Lombardia 2016 Preview

Saturday’s long race from Como to Bergamo is the last chance for the climbers to nab a big result this season. Always a scenic event and typically quite entertaining, Il Lombardia should be especially interesting this year as the race looks wide open for the taking.

The Route

The 2016 edition of Il Lombardia looks harder than ever, with climbs aplenty dotting the 241-kilometer route. After 100 rolling kilometers comes the Valcava climb, hard enough to force a selection in a grand tour, and then four short but steep ascents in rapid succession. Then comes a long descent to the final kick, the Bergamo Alta, just over a kilometer at nearly 8%. From the top, it’s less then 4km to the finish, most of that downhill.

Serious climbing ability and descending skills alike will be critical for anyone hoping to win this race. Bad-weather bike handling ability could come in handy as well, with a potential for rain in the forecast, and a fast finish may be necessary should things end in a reduced sprint on the short stretch of flat road that closes out the day. In other words, this is a race for a true all-rounder.

The Contenders

2015 champ Vicenzo Nibali isn’t racing this year, opening things up a bit. Alejandro Valverde, normally a good place to start the favorites conversation, is apparently coming into the race after having been sick. His form is questionable. Daniel Moreno, second last year, may be a better option for Movistar—though his form is a bit of an unknown as well.

Two-time former champion Joaquím Rodríguez is another name with plenty of career success in this race—but he too comes into Il Lombardia with question marks. Returning to racing from months of “retirement,” Purito can hardly be expected to be in top shape. He’s worth watching, but others seem to be stronger contenders.

For me, 2014 winner Dan Martin is as worthy a top favorite as any. He has looked to be in great shape this year, but at the same time, he has yet to take any really big victories all season, so the motivation should be high. The course may be a bit too climber-friendly, but he has plenty of punch for the finale. Julian Alaphilippe is a terrific option for EQS as well. His performance at the European Championships would suggest the form is there, while Gianluca Brambilla is yet another card to play.

Astana may be without Nibali, but Fabio Aru gives them a top favorite in his stead. Aru isn’t the most explosive rider and his one-day résumé is not particularly inspiring, but it’s hard to count him out for a mountainous race in Italy, especially with talented teammates Diego Rosa and Miguel Ángel López at his side.

Rigoberto Urán has gotten away from his early career successes in the one-days, but he’s had a nice year and appears to be enthusiastic about seeking results in the Classics now. This is a great race for him.

Esteban Chaves is another top pick for a number of prognosticators, though I’m not sure I am as sold on his chances. He’s obviously a great climber but he has never focused on one-day racing and this is not just any one-day event, either. Simon Yates is another option for Orica.

Rui Costa and Diego Ulissi give Lampre a nice one-two punch. Ditto for Tim Wellens and Tony Gallopin at Lotto-Soudal. Sky is loaded with options in Wout Poels, Mikel Landa, and Michal Kwiatkowski. Robert Gesink, Wilco Kelderman, Tom Dumoulin, Romain Bardet, Bauke Mollema, Fabio Felline, Rafal Majka, Philippe Gilbert, and Greg Van Avermaet are others to watch.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Dan Martin
Podium: Alejandro Valverde, Fabio Aru
Other Top Contenders: Rigoberto Urán, Julian Alaphilippe, Joaquím Rodríguez, Rui Costa, Diego Ulissi, Esteban Chaves, Wout Poels

Photo by corto.maltese (CC).

September 30, 2016
Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2016 Preview

Sunday’s Liège-Bastogne-Liège caps off the 2016 Spring Classics season with a chance for the climbers to nab a big one-day victory. Plenty of big names will make start hoping to come away with a Monumental addition to their palmares in the 102nd edition of “La Doyenne.”

The Route

Liège-Bastogne-Liège takes the peloton 253km from Liège to Bastogne and then back to the general vicinity of Liège, with the finish line actually in the town of Ans. The parcours includes 10 climbs officially, though the race ends on a climb that will almost certainly be critical to the overall victory. The last two official climbs are likely to play a big role as well. Expect attacks to fly on the 1.2km Côte de Saint-Nicolas (8.6% average grade) and the new Côte de la Rue Naniot, a short climb at just 600 meters but steep enough to break things up at 10.5%.

The Contenders

Defending champion Alejandro Valverde is hunting down a fourth career win, and he certainly looks strong enough to pull it off after winning La Flèche Wallonne on Wednesday. His strong team should help keep the race under control so that he can dominate the finale with his strong finishing kick.

Etixx-QuickStep brings two of the top favorites to challenge Valverde. Dan Martin is a past winner, and he’s looking good after another Flèche Wallonne podium performance. Liège is a race that suits him very well, and the added climb will give him another chance to attack his rivals. And if Martin isn’t up for this, his teammate Julian Alaphilippe is a terrific second option, with a nice turn of speed.

Simon Gerrans‘s form is a bit of a question mark right now, but if he’s feeling strong he has a great chance to pick up a second career win here. He’s probably the fastest finisher among the top contenders for the victory.

Vincenzo Nibali finally took his first Monument win last year in Lombardy, and he could use the same combination of climbing and descending skills to make a run for the Liège win. A late attack seems practically guaranteed.

You could probably say the same about Tim Wellens. He almost always swings for the fences, and his attacking style has already earned him two Eneco Tour overall wins and the GP Montréal. He hasn’t been able to hit a home run in the Ardennes just yet, but he’s certainly got a shot. Lotto-Soudal also has Tony Gallopin and Jelle Vanendert.

Joaquím Rodríguez didn’t look to be at his best at La Flèche Wallonne but he’s almost always in the mix in this race and can’t be counted out. Neither can Rui Costa, who is made for this sort of profile. Enrico Gasparotto, Michal Kwiatkowski, Romain Bardet, Wout Poels, and Samuel Sánchez are others to keep an eye on.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Alejandro Valverde
Podium: Dan Martin, Vincenzo Nibali
Other Top Contenders: Julian Alaphilippe, Joaquím Rodríguez, Simon Gerrans, Tim Wellens, Rui Costa, Michal Kwiatkowski, Enrico Gasparotto

Photo by Jean Housen (CC).

April 24, 2016
The Recon Ride Podcast: Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2016

Episode 40: Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2016 Pre-race Show

The Recon Ride dives into the route and the favorites for the final big race of the 2016 Spring Classics season – and the fourth Monument of the year – Liège-Bastogne-Liège.

[powerpress]

“La Doyenne,” the Old Lady of spring classics, brings Ardennes Week to a conclusion this Sunday. Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano preview Liège-Bastogne-Liège, one of the most climber-friendly one-day races on the calendar.

Photo by Jean Housen (CC).

April 22, 2016
La Flèche Wallonne 2016 Preview

“Ardennes Week” is in full swing. The peloton took on the Cauberg this past weekend, which can only mean it’s time for the Mur de Huy this Wednesday…

The Route

La Flèche Wallonne is surprisingly short, particularly this year, at just 196 kilometers.

There are officially 12 climbs on the menu, starting at kilometer 67 and running all the way to the finish. The first 11 will serve to wear away at the legs of the peloton, particularly the 1.3km, 8.1% Côte de Cherave, but this race is almost always decided on the final climb, the Mur de Huy.

A winding 1.3km at 9.3%, the Mur is a brutal challenge that punishes those who don’t time their jump perfectly. Experience matters on the steep slopes of the climb, which maxes out at over 25% for one small section. Things do flatten out near the finish line, meaning that the pure climbers will want to go a little earlier than those with a bit of a sprint.

The Contenders

Alejandro Valverde makes the start in pursuit of a record fourth career win at La Flèche Wallonne, and he looks like a strong candidate to pull it off. For one, the race and the final climb in particular suit him perfectly. These sorts of climbs have been Valverde’s bread and butter for years. He looks strong this season too. Meanwhile, some of the other names that come to mind for this race have yet to really show off any stellar form, making Valverde that much stronger a race favorite. Movistar also has Daniel Moreno, a former winner himself, as another card to play, and Carlos Betancur could be up there as well.

Joaquím Rodríguez probably should have won this race more than just the once, but he’s always a dangerous contender on this sort of finishing climb. It’s hard to say what kind of shape he’s in, but he’ll almost certainly be in the mix.

Form is a question mark after he pulled out of País Vasco, but rarely is Dan Martin not in shape to contest this event, one of his favorites. He has always done well here. Etixx-QuickStep also has Julian Alaphilippe, runner-up just last year. If anyone can challenge Movistar’s top-to-bottom strength, it’s the Irish-French duo leading the Belgian supersquad.

Speaking of former runners-up, don’t overlook Sergio Henao. He has been flying all season and should be able to fight with the very best on the Mur. Sky has a nice support squad to put him into position, and he has an underrated kick on this sort of finish.

Michael Albasini of Orica-GreenEdge is always one to watch at La Flèche Wallonne—he’s never won, but he’s almost always in the mix. Lotto-Soudal has several options with Tim Wellens, Tony Gallopin, and Jelle Vanendert. Look to one of the three (probably Wellens) to try something long-range. Philippe Gilbert looked out of shape at Amstel and is probably beyond the point of being considered a favorite here, but he did win the race once upon a time and so can’t be counted out. BMC teammate Samuel Sánchez may be more of a threat.

Amstel Gold Race winner Enrico Gasparotto, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Michael Woods, Rui Costa, Diego Ulissi, Warren Barguil, Wilco Kelderman, and Roman Kreuziger are others to watch.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Alejandro Valverde
Podium: Sergio Henao, Joaquím Rodríguez
Other Top Contenders: Dan Martin, Julian Alaphilippe, Michael Albasini, Daniel Moreno, Rui Costa, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Tim Wellens

Photo by Stacy Clinton (CC).

April 20, 2016
Amstel Gold Race 2016 Preview

“Ardennes Week” gets underway this Sunday in the Netherlands (not actually in the Belgian Ardennes) at the Amstel Gold Race. The peloton’s punchier stars will have a shot at classics glory on a profile chock-full of short but steep climbs.

The Route

258 kilometers in total, the Amstel Gold Race parcours involves 34 small climbs, but more often than not everything comes down to the final uphill challenge of the day: the Cauberg. The riders will actually climb it four times, but the last one comes just 1.8 kilometers from the finish line, and it’s likely to be the key moment in the race.

A little over a kilometer at a little under 6%, the Cauberg isn’t actually all that hard compared to other famous cycling climbs, but at the end of a long day it does take its toll. Attacks are guaranteed—the question is whether an aggressor can hang on all the way to the line. If not, we’ll likely see a reduced sprint.

The Contenders

Michal Kwiatkowski is the defending champion, and having shown terrific form in winning E3 Harelbeke, he looks like a strong contender again in 2016. It’s hard to say whether the Amstel Gold Race will go to a lone attacker or to a speedster in a small group, but Kwiatkowski is a threat in either scenario. Sergio Henao, Wout Poels, and Ben Swift are other strong options for Sky.

Orica-GreenEdge has a powerful one-two punch in Michael Matthews and Simon Gerrans. Gerrans might be the one trying to mix it up on the climb, leaving Matthews to battle it out in a sprint if the Cauberg is not as selective.

BMC’s Philippe Gilbert is a three-time Amstel Gold Race winner, and an obvious potential protagonist. His form is a question mark, especially given his recent finger injury, but Gilbert can never be counted out in this event. Samuel Sánchez and Ben Hermans are other strong options for the team.

Rui Costa nabbed fourth here last year and he could contend again this year. He’s deceptively speedy and has a great eye for opportunities to get away, so watch out for him late in the race. Diego Ulissi gives Lampre another card to play—he’s great in a reduced sprint after a tough day.

Julian Alaphilippe and Brabantse Pijl winner Petr Vakoc make for a strong Etixx duo. Daniel Moreno could get involved for Movistar, with Alejandro Valverde sitting this race out. Lotto-Soudal looks strong with Tony Gallopin, Jelle Vanendert, and Tim Wellens. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard could struggle to hold on over the climbs but he’s a threat in a sprint.

Fabio Felline, Bauke Mollema, Wilco Kelderman, Enrico Gasparotto, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Alexis Vuillermoz, Joaquím Rodríguez, and Tom Dumoulin are others with a shot.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Michal Kwiatkowski
Podium: Michael Matthews, Philippe Gilbert
Other Top Contenders: Simon Gerrans, Rui Costa, Julian Alaphilippe, Tony Gallopin, Tim Wellens, Petr Vakoc, Fabio Felline

Photo: Jakub Cerveny (CC).

April 17, 2016
The Recon Ride Podcast: Amstel Gold Race + La Flèche Wallonne 2016

Episode 39: Amstel Gold Race + La Flèche Wallonne 2016 Pre-race Show

“Ardennes Week” kicks off Sunday at the Amstel Gold Race, and continues with La Flèche Wallonne Wednesday. The podcast covers both races with a double-header pre-race show.

[powerpress]

The Recon Ride dives into two races this week: Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano take a closer look at the Amstel Gold Race and La Flèche Wallonne, and the punchy riders who are likely to feature as protagonists on the short steep climbs of Dutch Limburg and the Belgian Ardennes.

Photo by Ed Webster (CC).

April 15, 2016