The wait is over! The long WorldTour offseason is finally coming to an end as things get kicked off this week in Australia with the 17th edition of the Tour Down Under. A six-day stage race in and around Adelaide, the race has grown bigger and bigger in the past few years, and the parcours has developed as well: heavyweight sprinters have won the overall here in the past, but these days, a hillier route favors the more capable climbers in the peloton. Those hills tend to make for an exciting return to WorldTour racing, and also welcome return to race preview season here at VeloHuman.
Note: a shorter version of this preview can be seen at VeloNews.
The Route
There are no Alpine inclines to overcome in the Tour Down Under, but the hills that feature in a few of the race’s six stages are more than enough of a challenge to keep things interesting. The first WorldTour race of the year opens with a short (132.6 km) and mostly flat trip from Tanunda to Campbelltown, ending with a long straightaway that should give the sprinters an opportunity to pick up a victory. Stage 2 concludes with an uphill finish that has featured in previous editions of the Tour Down Under, probably not steep enough to make any serious separation likely, but potentially a place for the punchier GC contenders to make a bid for precious bonus seconds. Stage 3 features a new climb near the finish line in Paracombe, a short but steep affair that will almost certainly see gaps appearing in the bunch. The uphill specialists with GC aspirations cannot hesitate to launch for glory on Stage 3, as it is one of the few opportunities they will have to get clear of the peloton in the Tour Down Under.
Stage 4 will take the peloton on an undulating journey from Glenelg to Mt. Barker, where a flat finish will likely deter anyone from engaging in GC action. Stage 5, on the other hand, is the traditional queen stage of the Tour Down Under, 151.5 kilometers from McLaren Vale to classic TDU climb Willunga Hill, which will be climbed twice. 3 km at an average gradient over 7%, Old Willunga will inevitably see a showdown among the top climbers of the race. Richie Porte won here in 2014 with a 10 second gap, though as has often been the case in the TDU, his margin was not enough to overcome the GC bid of Simon Gerrans, whose propensity to collect bonus seconds put him in the driver’s seat in last year’s race. In other words, it is crucial to finish well on Willunga Hill, but consistent performance on the other five stages of the race is also crucial.
Stage 6 closes out the 2015 Tour Down Under with a 90 kilometer circuit race in the heart of Adelaide, essentially a very long criterium that almost invariably favors the pure sprinters.
Looking at the big picture, Stages 2, 3, and 5 are those likeliest to see the GC contenders trying to position themselves for a showdown. Regardless of whether serious gaps open up there or on any of the TDU’s six stages, however, it is important to be near the front at every finish line, as the dearth of long mountain climbs makes the battle for bonus seconds critical to the General Classification fight.
The GC Contenders
Sifting through the startlist to pick out the major favorites for the overall in the TDU can be difficult because the position of the race on the cycling calendar (in January) makes form and motivation a major unknown for a number of the riders in attendance, especially for those non-Australians who are not coming off of Nationals week like the home riders are. The absence of last year’s winner Simon Gerrans (who is out with a broken collarbone) will only add to that unpredictability. Still, plenty of big names, Australian and otherwise, stand out as likely GC contenders.
Having taken an impressive victory over several talented chrono stars in the Australian ITT National Championship, Richie Porte has proven to be in blazing form this January. There is no time trial in the TDU, and Porte isn’t known for his finishing kick, which will make it difficult for him to play the bonus seconds game, but with his ability to climb at an elite level, that might not matter. Given his display of fitness at Nationals, he looks ready to put it on the line here and it will be hard for his rivals to keep him in check when the road goes up. Geraint Thomas was 8th here last year even while riding in a support role for Porte, and he was 3rd in 2013. His powerful engine and not-insignificant sprinting ability will come in handy here, making him an excellent potential alternative for Sky.
Cadel Evans leads a BMC team that will hope to take on the Sky roster. This will be Evans’s last WorldTour event before he retires in a few weeks, and he’s never won this race, so he should be motivated to give it his all (especially after missing out on the victory here last year by one second). Even at age 37, he’s still got a nice finishing kick to pick up all-important time bonuses, and will be dangerous on several stages. In up-and-coming Australian talent Rohan Dennis, BMC has a strong second card to play. Dennis is known as a time-trialist but he climbed with the very best in last year’s Tour of California, and he is continuing to get better and better as an all-round talent.
Despite the absence of Simon Gerrans, Orica-GreenEdge will take on their home race with several potential GC men, with Daryl Impey looking like the best option. Impey is deadly in a reduced sprint, and if he can gain an early advantage of bonus seconds, he might have what it takes to hold on over the harder climbs. Simon Clarke’s penchant for aggressive riding could come in handy, especially in a race where one strong stage performance can be enough for an overall victory. Past winner Cameron Meyer will be more of an outsider this year, but a rider worth watching at the very least.
Cannondale-Garmin is another team with options. Ryder Hesjedal, Moreno Moser, and Alex Howes are all well-rounded talents with the potential to mix it up on a variety of stages, but Nathan Haas could be the best man on the squad for this Tour Down Under. He is another rider who will hope to win the bonus seconds game, and he showed off his strong finishing kick in last year’s race on his way to 5th overall. He has a propensity to perform very well outside of Europe, with two Japan Cup victories and results in the Jayco Herald Sun Tour and Tour de Langkawi as well.
Giant-Alpecin’s dual threat of Tom Dumoulin and Simon Geschke will be dangerous if both riders are in good enough form to mix it up with the favorites in this race. Dumoulin has an underrated sprint to match his elite soloing ability, while Geschke’s fast finish is a known commodity that will make him a contender for time bonuses on the 2nd and 4th stages. Katusha has Tiago Machado, an excellent climber, and Giampaolo Caruso, who is more explosive than many realize. That makes them another team with a dual threat worth keeping an eye on. AG2R brings a stable of climbers as well, with Domenico Pozzovivo the most prominent name but with Christophe Riblon and Blel Kadri, typically very strong on hillier days like the ones that could decide this race, making the start as well.
Tinkoff-Saxo’s Michael Rogers will look to get clear of the peloton at any opportunity. The same is true for Lotto Soudal’s Adam Hansen; the Belgian squad also Thomas De Gendt as a potential contender. Astana’s Luis Leon Sanchez won here way back in 2005, and having returned to the WorldTour level with Astana after a year with Caja Rural, he will hope to kick the year off in style; his combination of strong soloing ability, decent climbing ability, and a nice sprint make him a dangerous outsider here. Movistar’s Jose Herrada and Gorka Izagirre and LottoNL’s George Bennett are other outsiders with a chance.
The Stagehunters
On the list of fast men who are making the start with clear stage-winning goals in mind, sprinting superstar Marcel Kittel tops the list, but his objectives and his readiness to take on a WorldTour-level race are a big question mark. He won the 2014 People’s Choice Classic but was afterward a non-factor in this race. Obviously, if he is in good shape, he will be the man to beat here in 2015, but that’s a big if. Form is also an unknown for talented Italians Giacomo Nizzolo and Roberto Ferrari, but there are stages to suit both if they are here to race. Nizzolo has great top-end speed and the opening stage to Campbelltown could suit him. Typically Mark Renshaw might have trouble hanging with the aforementioned big names, but on his home turf, anything is possible. Etixx – Quick-Step will hope to start the year off with a stage win from either Renshaw or the versatile Gianni Meersman, who could feature in Stages 2 or 4.
Heinrich Haussler is another rider with the potential to shine on those somewhat bumpier days. He was on excellent form in the Australian National Championship Road Race, getting into the day’s early breakaway at first, and then, after that was reeled in, jumping right back into another move off the front, the move that won the race. With that form, he should be able to do pick up some results in the Tour Down Under.
Steele Von Hoff, Barry Markus, Gregory Henderson, and JJ Lobato are other fast men to keep an eye on here.
VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites
General Classification Winner: Richie Porte
GC Podium: Cadel Evans, Daryl Impey
Other Top GC Contenders: Nathan Haas, Tom Dumoulin, Geraint Thomas, Michael Rogers, Luis Leon Sanchez, Domenico Pozzovivo, Tiago Machado
VeloHuman was so excited about the return of racing season that in addition to writing this preview, VH teamed up with Cosmo Catalano to present The Recon Ride Podcast, a pre-race show. Give it a listen! And as usual, VH will be tweeting plenty of live analysis during the race, so follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more!
-Dane Cash
Photo by Kym Della-Torre.