The Vuelta takes on another GC-oriented stage in its ninth day. Most of the relatively short stage is flat, but things get a bit more difficult in the final 50km. A Cat. 2 trip up the Alto de Puig Llorenca comes first, 3.3km at a steep 8.9%. Then comes a steep descent, followed by a more gentle stretch of downhill that extends for over 20km to the intermediate sprint at kilometer 155. Afterward comes a small uncategorized bump, another steep descent, and then the second trip up the Puig Llorenca, from a different side this time. The average gradient is again 8.9%, but it’s a 4.1km journey to the finish line at the top. A particularly brutal stretch of 19% awaits right in the middle of the climb, and the final few hundred meters hit the double digits again.
At just 4.1 kilometers long, the finishing climb is not exactly the Stelvio, but its vicious gradients will make for an explosive challenge. Now that Stage 7 has offered a glimpse of what’s what in this GC showdown, the stronger riders could seize the opportunity to put their rivals into the red zone on the extreme slope.
After a challenging, hot first week, and with an escapee-friendly profile, Stage 9 could appeal to the breakaway specialists. The usual favorites among the GC men haven’t exactly shown a great deal of interest in fighting for stage wins. However, none of the marquee climbers have fallen too far out of contention just yet in this Vuelta, and it will take a pretty strong group to survive if the peloton does ramp up the pace in preparation for the final climb, so it’s hard to see any individual breakaway candidates as top favorites over the heavy hitters in the red jersey battle.
The short but brutally steep climb should suit Joaquim Rodríguez. Based on his skillset, he has to be seen as a favorite. However, Rodríguez has been very conservative so far in the race, and that makes it harder to view him as anything close to a consensus top pick for the stage. He can’t expect to hesitate his way to a stage win, or a Vuelta win for that matter. If he goes on the move, he’ll be deadly. The same is true for Katusha teammate Daniel Moreno.
Fabio Aru was the strongest rider on Stage 7, opening up a significant gap on his rivals when he launched his move on the final climb. Unlike Rodríguez, he took risks on that stage, and he might be looking to do so again here. This climb doesn’t suit him all that well compared to a few of the extremely explosive climbers on the startlist, but I think he’s strong enough to win anyway. Mikel Landa makes for a fine alternative for Astana.
Esteban Chaves has shown already in this Vuelta that this sort of climb suits him well. Getting into the second week of the race, Chaves is entering unknown territory, but he hasn’t shown signs of slowing down yet, and he could find himself in the mix again on Stage 9.
Alejandro Valverde has looked strong so far in the Vuelta, but maybe not at peak form. He also isn’t particularly keen on jumping clear of the pack, which he’ll probably need to do to win this stage. Still he’s always a danger, as is Nairo Quintana, who could light up this race at any minute once he starts getting back to his best.
Domenico Pozzovivo should find the terrain to his liking, and after a slow start he looks to be getting stronger. Unlike most of the other red jersey hopefuls, Pozzovivo doesn’t have a Grand Tour in his legs, and could find himself feeling a lot fresher than his rivals. He also might get a bit of leeway if he goes on the attack, as the likes of Movistar and Katusha look at each other instead of anyone else.
Nicolas Roche will find this gradient extreme, but he has looked good so far, as has Sky teammate Mikel Nieve. I’m not ready to write Chris Froome off yet either, though I still probably won’t write him off even if he loses ground on this stage, for that matter, as I think he’s riding himself back into form at the moment.
Rafal Majka, Samuel Sánchez, and Louis Meintjes are others to watch on the final climb.
If the GC favorites don’t feel like putting their teams to work chasing down escapees, Pello Bilbao, Rodolfo Torres, Fabio Duarte, Gianluca Brambilla, Alessandro De Marchi, Bart De Clercq, Daniel Navarro, and Cyril Gautier are among the many riders who could find success in the early break or with a late strike.
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 9. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here. Also, don’t miss the latest Recon Ride, which covers all the big storylines ahead of Sunday GP Ouest-France.
Stage 19 (ITT): Bassano del Grappa > Cima Grappa (Crespano del Grappa) – 26.8 km
It isn’t really a surprise that most of the maglia rosa hunters took a measured approach to Stage 18 (which went to Julian Arredondo from the breakaway) with something as important as Friday’s ITT on the horizon. Only three stages remain in this Giro d’Italia, and only two of them are likely to have any effect on the overall outcome: it’s all down to the wire in the first Grand Tour of the year, and Stage 19 will play a huge part in the final GC standings.
The 26.8 kilometer individual time trial that awaits is not your average chrono. It is dominated by a Category 1 climb that kicks off around 7.5 kilometers into the stage. Hill climb TTs are not uncommon, but ones that combine gradients this high with such grueling length are rare: the Monte Grappa climb is a beast, 19.3 kilometers long at an average of 8%, with a few very steep sections near the top, including one that touches 14%. It’s about as long and, on average, about as steep as the Montecampione climb that launched Fabio Aru to victory in the Giro’s fifteenth stage. Unlike the summit finishes that have preceded it, however, this race against the clock won’t allow riders to bunch up and ride together along the lower slopes, conserving energy for late attacks. Each rider must face this challenge on his own.
This is a mountain test that will reward the best climbers in the race, especially those who combine lightweight frames with good endurance. Most of the riders generally considered time trialing specialists will not have a chance; the GC men are the likeliest contenders. Nairo Quintana is the heavy favorite. He’s the best climber here, a featherlight who excels at going uphill all by himself for extended periods of time. He’s good enough in a standard time trial, but on a stage like this, he is going to excel. Anything less than a win on Stage 19 will be a disappointment for the Movistar rider.
Rigoberto Uran dominated the Giro’s first time trial, but this will be a very different test. He’s been climbing well throughout the race and he obviously has the engine to produce a high wattage for quite a while. I imagine that he’ll be able to strengthen his hold on a podium position with this ride, but picking up time on Quintana will be a big ask.
Domenico Pozzovivo is my third favorite. Illness has slowed him down late in this race, which is unfortunate, because he had planned to be more aggressive in this last week. Still, he’s looked good in the past two tough mountain finishes, and he’s shown off some seriously improved chrono chops recently. He was decent in the first ITT of the race, but a hill climb like this suits him very well.
I expect success from Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka in Stage 19. He was just a hair better than Uran in the mountain ITT in last year’s Giro d’Italia, and he’s extremely motivated to fight for the podium. I’m not sure if the vicious gradients of the Monte Zoncolan will suit him compared to his rivals, so this could be his best shot.
Wilco Kelderman is a stronger time trialist than most of his GC rivals on a flatter course, but that advantage will fade on these slopes; obviously he’s still an excellent climber, so a strong result is likely, but in terms of gaining time on GC I think he’d prefer a profile that doesn’t suit the other contenders as well. Fellow 23-year-old Fabio Aru, on the other hand, may be something of an unknown in the time trial, but if there were ever an ITT for the climbing star to shine in, this is it. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is climbing wonderfully, but his affinity for uphill attacks does not necessarily translate that well in a chrono; he has not excelled in time trials, even in the hillier ones, in his career. BMC’s Cadel Evans is fading fast as the Giro gets harder and harder and I think he will struggle to limit his losses here. Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal lost some time in Stage 18 and will be hoping for a rebound. Trek’s Robert Kiserlovski does not have a good track record in the ITT but he’s on very strong form at the moment and this will be an excellent opportunity for the climber to get a rare decent result against the clock.
Sky’s Dario Cataldo, the OPQS trio of Thomas de Gendt, Wouter Poels, and the very surprising Gianluca Brambilla, Androni’s Franco Pellizotti, the Tinkoff-Saxo pair of Nicolas Roche and Michael Rogers, and Trek’s Julian Arredondo (there are KOM points up for grabs) are probably the best non-GC candidates for stage success here but it would be a pretty big surprise to see anyone who isn’t hunting the maglia rosa take the day.
Saturday’s finish atop Monte Zoncolan will be a thriller, so check back for the preview after the last rider crosses the line in the Stage 18 ITT. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.
Stage 15: Valdengo > Plan di Montecampione – 225 km
There were no huge time gaps among the main GC contenders on a Stage 14 that went to a breakaway, but we learned a lot on the first really hard climbs of this race about who is on top form. Nairo Quintana seems to have overcome the various ailments that have troubled him through the first two weeks of the Giro d’Italia. His rivals have their work cut out for him as the road continues to go up in the next few days.
At 225 total kilometers, Stage 15 is one of the longest in the race, but the first 205.7 kilometers are quite flat. The real action will be reserved for the end of the day, when the road heads skyward. The Category 1 Plan di Montecampione is a leg-breaker, 19.4 kilometers at 7.6%. The first 11 km are pretty steady at around 8%, and then there is a brief respite in the 3% to 4% range before a finale of roughly 5 kilometers at gradients nearing 9%.
A breakaway victory is again possible, but with a rest day to follow and a lot on the line, the big guns should be out to play on the slopes. Wide roads and a mostly flat run-in to the final climb won’t offer much advantage to early attackers either.
It took two weeks, but Nairo Quintana finally showed his hand in Stage 14. He appears to be back at full strength, and on this long, steep final climb, he’s the big favorite now that he looks recovered from his crash and the sickness that followed. Movistar’s mountain goats also showed their mettle on Stage 14 and they’ll be able to put Quintana in a great place to take on this final ascent.
AG2R was another particularly impressive squad on the road to Oropa, especially given their cast of domestiques with names less recognizable than Eros Capecchi or Igor Anton. Domenico Pozzovivo ensured that their work was put to good use, picking up a few seconds on some of his GC rivals when he attacked with Nairo Quintana and managed to maintain a gap over at least a few of the riders behind. Stage 15 is another golden opportunity for the aggressive Italian and his dedicated French team to make their mark, and I expect Pozzovivo to be one of the strongest GC contenders on this climb.
Pink jersey wearer Rigoberto Uran did not look comfortable trying to match the moves of Quintana and Pozzovivo on Stage 14 and he lost some time, possibly a sign that the excellent time trialing ability he has developed may have come at the expense up some of his trademark uphill talent. With over 19 kilometers of sustained climbing to close out Stage 15, Uran could be in trouble. Still, it’s possible that he’s just had one bad day, and I’m not ready to completely downgrade my opinion of Uran just yet. Another day or two in the mountains will offer more clarity.
Cadel Evans looked to be struggling on Stage 14 as well. He didn’t lose a huge chunk of seconds, but the Plan di Montecampione climb is much longer, and it’s steeper. He has had good support so far, but I’m not sure how well BMC will be able to stick with their leader on the really difficult climbs of this final week. Evans still has a nice buffer to most of his rivals on GC (other than Uran), but I expect him to start losing time on these high gradients.
Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka should be pretty excited about this profile and what’s to come. He’s sitting 3rd at the moment, he’s climbing wonderfully, and he has a good team around him. Nicolas Roche took to the break on Stage 14, but he’ll be a very valuable domestique when called upon, as will Michael Rogers. In last year’s Giro, Majka showed on the Altopiano del Montasio and the Galiber that he can turn a good rhythm on even the very long climbs, so this finish should suit him.
Astana’s Fabio Aru continues to impress me. He actually finished just ahead of Pozzovivo on Stage 14. I keep waiting for him to show signs of weakness as we get deeper and deeper into the Giro d’Italia, but he has not faltered yet, and could be in for continued success on this stage for the pure climbers. Wilco Kelderman also continues to impress me, but this will be a real test. It’s a very long way to the Montecampione finish, and Kelderman doesn’t have a cast of supporters well-suited to the slopes. He’s proven that he deserves to be among the very biggest names in this race so far, but he’ll have his work cut out for him.
Europcar’s Pierre Rolland will be coming off a very hard effort, and it would be difficult enough when fully rested to match the big favorites on this long slog. Ryder Hesjedal certainly looks to have found some of his old form, but this will be a major challenge after a long day.
Trek’s Julian Arredondo did not make the Stage 14 breakaway, opening the door for Tim Wellens to pick up a lot of KOM points. There’s a big stash of points on offer at the Stage 15 finish, so I think it’s pretty likely that Arredondo will be very active in defense of his blue jersey, and as a non-threat to GC, he’ll probably be given freedom to go for a long one. Diego Ulissi is another explosive climber who doesn’t pose a big GC threat, but it’d be pretty surprising to see him survive this extended uphill journey unless he manages to do it from a long-distance move.
Speaking of long distance, more candidates for breakaway success (and outside candidates for success if they wait until the big climb) include Katusha’s Daniel Moreno and Colombia’s Fabio Duarte, neither of whom went particularly deep on Stage 14, Astana’s Mikel Landa, Androni’s Diego Rosa and Franco Pellizotti, and Bardiani’s Francesco Bongiorno. Also watch out for Sky’s Sebastian Henao, who has been climbing very well so far and who does not have any teammates with GC aspirations to look after now that Sky’s last hope for the overall, Kanstantsin Siutsou, has abandoned.
There have been a few hills along the Giro route so far, several major crashes with GC implications, and a crucial individual time trial, but organizers waited until the fourteenth stage of the race to challenge the maglia rosa hunters with serious climbs. The GC men enjoyed a relatively easy day in the saddle on Stage 13 (a short, flat stage that somehow went to a breakaway thanks to a lack of cooperation among the sprinters’ teams), and they should be charged and ready for action.
Stage 14 is not a particularly long one but it involves a lot of uphill mileage. After some early bumps, the peloton will reach the foot of Category 1 Alpe Noveis a little over 85 kilometers in. It’s a tough ascent, averaging 7.9% over 9 kilometers but with a nasty midsection that jumps up over 11% for about 4 km. It’s followed by a very fast descent that runs right into the bottom of the Bielmonte climb, a long Cat. 2 that averages 5.6% for 18.4 kilometers. It may be a bit too far from the finish for much GC action, but it will certainly wear down the legs. Another long descent leads to the town of Biella and the foot of the final ascent to the Oropa Sanctuary, a Category 1 11.8 kilometer climb that averages 6.2%.
With so many ups and downs, a finish that is steep but not so steep as to guarantee huge gaps, and many difficult days to come, Stage 14 could see a non-GC threat ride away for victory. Trek’s Julian Arredondo has established himself as one of the strongest climbers in the race, and he’s gunning for mountain points. The final climb has a few high-gradient sections that will allow him to attack from whatever group he is in. One potential obstacle for Arredondo will be the fast descending required over much of the stage; the tiny climber isn’t known for his descending skills. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche, who showed an interest in a breakaway victory on Stage 11, and Michael Rogers, who showed off his descending skills on the way to a win that day, Astana’s Mikel Landa, Androni Giocattoli-Venezuela’s Diego Rosa, Colombia’s Fabio Duarte and Robinson Chalapud, Bardiani-CSF’s Stefano Pirazzi and Francesco Bongiorno, and Katusha’s Daniel Moreno are other potential protagonists who could be allowed up the road, in an early break or with a late move. Fair warning: these same names will likely be a common theme in the “if a breakaway takes it” sections of the next several mountain stage previews!
We’ve been waiting for GC contenders to actually show an interest in lighting up the race, and a few names stand out as potential aggressors on Stage 14. The time trials and various mishaps have already opened significant time gaps on the leaderboard, which could incite the kinds of all-out attacks and high speed chases from the bunch that will cut into the chances of the breakers. AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo is a favorite. He’s aggressive, his team is willing to work very hard on the slopes for him, and he looks strong right now: for a non-specialist in the time trial, he put in a fine performance in the ITT, which suggests that he is in great shape. He has the strongest balance of ability, form, and motivation to shoot upward on the final climb, and that combination could be enough to overcome even a strong breakaway group for stage honors. Pink jersey wearer Rigoberto Uran certainly has the ability and form, but now that he’s in the driver’s seat, he may let others do the attacking. Still, everyone is eyeing Nairo Quintana and waiting for him to make a move, and Uran could see an opportunity to try to widen the gap so that it is an even taller order for his Colombian rival if/when the Movistar leader recovers from his various ailments.
And what of Quintana? Were his health not in question, he’d be in my Top 3 favorites for the day. Unfortunately, just as he was recovering from his Stage 6 crash he fell sick. He did not appear to be at full strength in the ITT. He may have returned to 100% by now, but he’ll have to prove that he’s firing on all cylinders before I start predicting victory here.
Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka should do very well on Stage 14. He was very impressive in the chrono and he’s got some punch to make a move. The young Pole already has a Giro d’Italia Top 10 on his resume: now, he wants more, and he’s setting his sights on the podium. Astana’s Fabio Aru currently sits 7th on GC, and he’s now in a leadership role for a strong squad. Repeated days in the high mountains may start to wear on him next week, but for now I like his odds.
Trek’s Robert Kiserlovksi is an outsider I see with real potential. He’s been stellar on the climbs this year even against top competition. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland will almost certainly try something on one of the steeper sections of the road to Oropa. Diego Ulissi of Lampre lost a lot of ground on GC thanks to a Stage 11 crash, but his ITT performance kept him on the fringes of the overall leaderboard, meaning that he will be likely remain a marked man. Still, he’s a decent bet at this point in the race. Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman will hope to prove that he can hack it as the Giro starts to enter some very tough days, and BMC’s Cadel Evans will hope to take advantage of his strong team support and possibly try to take back time now that Uran has grabbed the overall lead. The next few days should provide some insight into just how well he is climbing.
Most of the major GC action in the Giro so far has come as a result of crashes on constantly wet roads, but Stage 8 will finally offer the sort of uphill tests to set up the first major mountain battle of the race. The pink jersey contenders were able to enjoy some time in the backseat on Stage 7 while the sprint teams took up the task of pulling back the day’s breakaway (Nacer Bouhanni was the stage winner just ahead of Giacomo Nizzolo and Luka Mezgec). Hopefully the overall contenders got as much rest as possible, because Stage 8 closes out with a Cat. 1 ascent, a very tricky descent, and then a two-part climb, officially classified as a Cat. 2, followed by a quick descent, and then a Cat. 1 finish.
Coming in such quick succession, the already difficult climbs will inject serious pain into the legs of anyone who isn’t at full strength. The ascent up the Cippo di Carpegna, which averages nearly 10%, will wear on even the best climbers, but following it up with an irregular climb up to the finish at Montecopiolo practically guarantees that gaps will start to form. Even if a small group manages to hold it together at the front most of the way up, the final few hundred meters of racing kick up to 13%, which should force some separation as the very lightest climbers jump for the finish.
Naturally, with some serious mountains on the docket, it will probably be the serious climbers who challenge for stage supremacy. We haven’t had that much of an opportunity to see which of them are on the best form right now, but this stage should help sort that out. On reputation and ability, Nairo Quintana is the somewhat obvious choice for stage favorite. Having lost some valuable seconds to his biggest rivals across the TTT and crash-filled sixth stage, Quintana needs to get moving on pulling back time. He’ll benefit from the help of a strong Movistar squad, with the likes of Eros Capecchi and Igor Anton as great lieutenants. This is an important opportunity to for Movistar to set the tone as the Giro enters its more difficult second and third weeks.
Rigoberto Uran is another rider who will look to make a statement here. He’s sitting nicely in the GC standings thanks to his Omega Pharma’s strong Stage 1 performance, but this is a real test of form. He’s had a mostly forgettable season on the climbs so far, but at his best he can mix it up with the elite mountain goats in the peloton. Furthermore, he’s got an explosive uphill kick, and if he reaches the final few hundred meters in a group, he’ll love the opportunity to launch a move for bonus seconds.
BMC’s Cadel Evans is also looking great for GC at the moment, bolstered by an excellent early TTT and the chunk of time he picked up on Stage 6. Winning this stage will be a lot to ask, as it’s a real question whether he can hang with the best climbers in this race at this point in his career, but with his stellar Giro del Trentino, he looks to have timed his peak nicely this season.
AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo looked very impressive catching back onto the peloton after being held up in the crash on Stage 6. He’s an elite climber who will be looking to gain time at every uphill opportunity, and I think this one suits him nicely. As I mentioned in my overall race preview, I really do expect him to mix it up with the big favorites in this Giro, and this will be his first test.
With Nicolas Roche out of the maglia rosa picture, Rafal Majka is now the guy for Tinkoff-Saxo’s GC ambitions. He was never far from the front on the toughest tests of last year’s Giro d’Italia, and he has another year of experience in 2014. I like his chances, especially with a very strong team backing him. Then again, I also wouldn’t put it past Roche to be on the hunt for stage wins now that he’s a non-factor for the pink jersey.
Trek’s Julian Arredondo and Lampre’s Diego Ulissi are explosive young climbers who will hope to hang on through a very difficult day and then launch late attacks on the irregular final slope. As yet another rider losing time in Stage 6, Arredondo has the added benefit of no longer being a GC threat, and may therefore be given some leeway to strike out for stage glory.
Astana has a number of weapons to animate the climb, and I think they’ll be very aggressive with attacks. Fabio Aru is very well placed for GC, and he’s a great climber. Michele Scarponi needs to win back some time. Mikel Landa is always looking for opportunities to put his uphill ability on display. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland, Bardiani-CSF’s Stefano Pirazzi, Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal, Katusha’s Daniel Moreno, Team Colombia’s Fabio Duarte, and Lampre’s Przemyslaw Niemiec are other riders to watch.
It wouldn’t be out of the question for the GC heavyweights to let a real outsider go off the front, but so many of them are already in a position where every bonus second counts, so I expect to see the bigger names contesting the stage win here.
Stage 8 should provide some great insights into which riders are on top form right now. Check back a few hours after the finish for the preview of Stage 9, which will throw another uphill challenge at the peloton. If you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis of the Giro, and of the Tour of California as well!
Early season tuneup races have done their part to offer insight into riders’ form in 2014, but the main event of spring stage racing is now here. The 97th Giro d’Italia begins in Belfast Friday with a team time trial. After two more days on the island, the Giro heads to Italy. Continuing recent trends, a difficult, climber-centric parcours has drawn a climber-heavy field to the race.
Vincenzo Nibali won last year’s edition with a dominant display of ability, finishing with nearly five minutes between himself and the next best placed rider, Rigoberto Uran. Cadel Evans took the final podium place of 2013. To earn their results, all of the riders braved extreme weather that forced a stage cancellation. Ryder Hesjedal (winner in 2012) and Bradley Wiggins both dropped out of the race before it reached its final destination. Difficult conditions are commonplace here, a feature of the race that, like the Italian Alps, must be overcome on the way to victory. Nibali will not be on the startlist this year, but many of the other protagonists of the 96th edition will be returning, as will the Martelltal-climbing stage that was unfortunately cancelled last year. Before I dive further into to the route, a note: VeloHuman will be previewing every stage of the 2014 Giro, so be sure to check back often for daily profiles and picks. The Stage 1 Preview is already up! Also, follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race!
The Route
The Giro d’Italia includes an introductory team time trial, two individual time trials (one essentially a hill climb), eight flat or flattish stages, five medium mountains stages (almost all ending uphill), and five high mountain stages, each with summit finishes. The parcours favors the more climbing-oriented GC contenders over those who sacrifice uphill ability for chrono-power. Bonus seconds of 10-6-4 at the finish and 3-2-1 at intermediate sprints will benefit the explosive riders and fast finishers.
Stage 8 and the Montecopiolo will be an early test for the GC favorites.
Taking the race one stage at a time: the first week kicks off with a medium distance TTT that will create a few small gaps in GC before a trio of stages for the sprinters (riders will get a day off to travel to Italy for Stage 4). Uphill finishes on Stages 5 and 6 could create some light GC action. A hilly Stage 7 closes out the first week in advance of difficult mountain stages (8 and 9) in the beginning of the second week.
With so many days for the pure climbers, an individual time trial on Stage 12 will weed out a number of would-be GC contenders.
After a rest day, Stages 10 and 11 shouldn’t have many GC implications. The rolling 41.9 kilometer time trial that follows on the 12th stage will; it could be one of the most pivotal tests of the Giro. Stage 13 will likely be another day off the pink jersey hunters, but Stages 14-16 will throw three consecutive summit finishes at the peloton (albeit with a rest day before Stage 16).
The fearsome Monte Zoncolan on Stage 20 guarantees suspense right up to the end.
Riders will save what energy they can on a bumpy but likely uneventful (at least for GC) Stage 17. The Rifugio Panarotta climb that closes out Stage 18 is roughly 16 kilometers at an approximately 8% average grade. Stage 19’s mountain time trial will be 26.8 kilometers of Category 1 climbing. And, of course, Stage 20 will throw down the gauntlet known as Monte Zoncolan, one of the most brutal climbs on the entire pro cycling calendar. 10 kilometers at around 12%, the summit finish will be a final test for the top riders in the race before the sprinters get their last hurrah in Stage 21, a 172 kilometer ride to Trieste and the podium presentation.
There are certainly a few early tests, but the action will really pick up in the second week, and all but two of the final eight stages are rife with extreme slopes and, as such, GC implications. The winner of this race will have to string together quite a few consistently strong performances in a row to come away victorious. With so many uphill finishes, a strong team of supporters will be crucial, as will an ability to avoid misfortune. There really aren’t many stages on which it’s okay for a rider to have a bad day.
The General Classification Contenders
The 2014 Giro d’Italia will kick off with two out-and-out favorites who stand, at least at the moment, head and shoulders above the competition. First and foremost is last year’s Tour de France runner-up, 24-year-old Nairo Quintana. A climbing superstar in a climber’s Grand Tour, Quintana looks just as strong in 2014 as he did in 2013. Quintana has shown that his elite ability to deliver on the mountains day after day after day is going strong in 2014, with nice performances in the Tour de San Luis, Tirreno-Adriatico, and the Volta a Catalunya. With this parcours, he enters the race with the title of favorite. He has had some time off racing, but that didn’t seem to be a problem before last year’s Tour, so I imagine he’ll be ready to roll. What’s more, he’ll have the full support of an elite Movistar team from the opening stage of the race, which was not the case in last year’s Tour de France, where Movistar set out to support Alejandro Valverde before altering their plan midway through the event. Jonathan Castroviejo and Adriano Malori will help set up Quintana nicely in the team time trial, and then riders like Eros Capecchi and Igor Anton will be strong workhorses when the road goes skyward.
Quintana’s main challenger looks to be Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez. The Spanish climber has earned quite a collection of Grand Tour podiums in his past few years, but he is still seeking an elusive Grand Tour victory. He came close in this very race in 2012, losing out on the victory and settling for 2nd after losing too many seconds in the final time trial. The 2014 Giro d’Italia is about as well-suited to Purito’s skillset as he could hope for; one of the time trials is basically a king of the hill competition, the other involves rolling ascents that will still favor his characteristics. Purito looked brilliant in the Volta a Catalunya in March, but had a rash of misfortune to follow, suffering injury in a crash at Amstel Gold. The crash derailed his Ardennes campaign and left him with some question marks coming into the Giro, his biggest target of the year. He will have had a few weeks to recover by the time the race kicks off, and the flattish first few days will give him further time to ride back into form, but the concerns are there. Still, Purito is a fighter and I imagine he’ll be among the top riders in the race, especially with bonus seconds on offer. Against a strong Movistar team and a number of other contenders, he’ll need to be gunning for every finish line. Fortunately, he’ll have top lieutenant Daniel Moreno at his side, another danger man for bonus seconds. The pair make a fearsome team and give Katusha a strong 1-2 punch. I think they’ll make the fight for the maglia rosa a close one.
Former Tour de France winner Cadel Evans looked excellent in the Tour Down Under, then rusty at Tirreno-Adriatico, and then back on to form at Pais Vasco. He was the best rider at the Giro del Trentino, facing many of the same names he’ll take on at the Giro d’Italia. He took 3rd in this race last year, and he’s out to prove he has at least another year in the tank. Given his recent performances, I think he’ll put in a strong race, but on this unforgiving profile, he may have a hard time keeping up with elite climbers. He will at least have a strong second in Grand Tour podium finisher Samuel Sanchez, who looks good, if not great yet, this season.
He doesn’t have the name recognition of a former yellow jersey holder or Olympic champion, but Domenico Pozzovivo is my pick for the rider most likely to challenge favorites Nairo Quintana and Joaquim Rodriguez. The Italian climber put in a Top 10 performance at last year’s Giro, but the real show came at the Vuelta a España, where he notched a 6th overall and displayed a newfound ability to deliver a top-shelf time trial. Always strong uphill, Pozzovivo’s recent discovery of chrono talent, along with a fair bit of general all-around improvement, make him a dangerous contender. He has been hot so far this season, delivering top 10s in every race he has undertaken, including landing 2nd in the Giro del Trentino and then flying to Liege to notch a 5th overall just two days later. The biggest hurdle to overcome will be questionable team support: he will be leading an AG2R squad without many of that outfit’s big names. Still, I think he will challenge the very best in this race.
Rigoberto Uran was the surprise runner-up in the 2013 edition, a result that built on a 7th overall and a young rider jersey from the previous year. No one was able to match Nibali in 2013, but Uran came closest, even beating him to the summit of the Altopiano de Montasio en route to a stage win. He lost big chunks of time on the chrono stages, but performed remarkably well for a rider who started the race as a lieutenant to Bradley Wiggins. He rides for a different team this year; OPQS signed him in the offseason to be their main GC rider. Uran has had a rocky start to 2014, landing 3rd overall against some big names in the Tour of Oman but otherwise delivering forgettable results in Tirreno-Adriatico, Catalunya, and Romandie. Still, the Giro is his main objective and it’s a race he knows, and it is important to remember that he’d done basically nothing last year leading into this race either. He also put in a stellar performance at the final ITT stage in the TdR this weekend, hinting that he may be stronger than his recent GC results would suggest. With a great team of supporters that includes Wout Poels and Thomas de Gendt, I think Uran will find himself at the pointy end of affairs in Italy.
Garmin sends a former Giro winner (as recently as 2012) in Ryder Hesjedal, but climbing specialist Dan Martin is probably the more dangerous rider for the squad. He’s won some serious climbers’ races, but GC success in a Grand Tour has eluded him so far. With the opening few stages taking place in Ireland, this year’s Giro is his main target. Martin’s form was a question mark right up until La Fleche Wallonne late last month, where he dispelled all concerns with a 2nd place performance atop the Mur; he continued to display stellar form in a title defense at Liege, where a late crash ruined an almost certain Top 5 placing, and possibly even an overall victory. However, one-day races are not Grand Tours, and Martin has had a penchant for running into problems in the longer races. Allergies and crashes have derailed his attempts in the past. Still, Martin knows that people question his ability to handle the Grand Tours, and I think he’s ready to silence his critics. The form is there, and unlike many of the other contenders, he doesn’t have too many miles on the tires yet this season. I think a Top 10 is within his reach, especially without many long, flat time trial miles. Teammate Hesjedal will be hoping for a resurgence; he has done very little since his overall victory here in 2012. Flashes of form at a few races last year suggest that he may still have top-level ability somewhere hidden away, but a lack of results so far this year make me skeptical of his chances.
Like cousin Dan Martin, Nicolas Roche is another GC rider looking forward to the start in his home country of Ireland. The 29-year-old really reached another level in last year’s Vuelta, landing in the Top 5 and nabbing a stage victory. He’s been rather quiet so far in 2014, but the Giro is easily the biggest objective of his year. Tinkoff-Saxo has another weapon in Rafal Majka, who finished 7th in 2013. He looks to be rounding into form this year, and he’ll love the mountainous route. With the Roche-Majka 1-2, Tinkoff-Saxo will be very active when the road goes up, and even without many results to go on in 2014, I think the pair will put at least one rider into the Top 10.
Astana won this race last year, and they send 2011 winner (after Contador was stripped of that title) Michele Scarponi this year. He has had a number of good, though not great performances so far in 2014, and was a fine 4th overall in last year’s race. Decent, if not world-beating, showings seem to be the name of the game for the aging Italian climber, and I think it’s likely we’ll get another here. His team does send a very strong team of lieutenants/alternatives to liven up the ascents: Mikel Landa has looked strong this year and young Fabio Aru was great again in the Giro del Trentino. A climber-centric route favors their skillsets.
Former Giro winner Damiano Cunego finally looks to have re-found some form here in 2014, climbing very well in Pais Vasco. Though it has now been a decade since his Grand Tour victory, Cunego is still only 32 years old. The route, and potential bonus seconds, suit the veteran. Lampre teammate Przemyslaw Niemiec may actually be a stronger option. Long an also-ran for the Italian squad, Niemiec has quietly put together some great recent results using his well-rounded skillset; his 6th overall at the 2013 Giro was one of a number of strong showings that year, and he looked great in Trentino this year. Diego Ulissi will likely be hunting stage wins in this race, as he has yet to show the sort of endurance to contend for a Grand Tour GC, but with the Cunego, Niemiec, and Ulissi trio, Lampre has one of the best uphill squads in the race.
The list of fellow Italian cycling stars of days past making renewed attempts at glory has even more names: for one, Ivan Basso, winner of the 2010 Giro d’Italia, is also in attendance. Unlike Scarponi or even Cunego, he has not had many recent showings of form, and he looked off the pace in Trentino and Romandie. I also question his team support. He may struggle to hang with the likes of Purito and Quintana as the uphill miles wear on. Androni Giacottoli’s Franco Pellizotti is yet another aging Italian star looking for another shot at success. 3rd here in 2009, Pellizotti has delivered a handful of decent showings in big races in the last year, including a respectable 9th in Trentino in April. Another respectable showing seems within his reach at the Giro d’Italia, though I don’t expect much of a serious GC challenge.
Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman looked sharp in Paris-Nice this year before a mechanical derailed his overall hopes. He’s a strong time trialist who might prefer a less climber-happy route, but Belkin, with star Robert Gesink sidelined indefinitely for health reasons and Bauke Mollema en route to the Giro, has a lot of faith in their young rider. Climber Steven Kruijswijk is along as well. Trek Factory Racing is also placing their faith in new blood. Robert Kiserlovski is coming into his own, with Top 10s in Tirreno-Adriatico and Catalunya. He was actually 10th in the Giro in 2010. As a rider who struggles against the clock, he’ll appreciate the overall parcours, though even with its rolling profile, Stage 12 will likely put a dent in his chances for General Classification. Kiserlovski is one of a number of strong up-and-comers for Trek; star youth Julian Arredondo is taking on his first Grand Tour and will look to animate the race when the road goes up, though stagehunting is a much more realistic goal for the GT rookie. Riccardo Zoidl is another Grand Tour newcomer, a well-rounded rider who looks sharp this season. Trek may not have a big name in this race, but I think we’re likely to see their kit mixing on a few mountain stages and maybe even on the fringes of the GC Top 10.
Sky’s bid for GC rests even further on the periphery. Kanstantin Siutsou has a Giro Top 10 to his name (in 2009) and Dario Cataldo has come close in the past, with a pair of 12th places on his palmares. Unfortunately for the pair, this is not a parcours that favors TT specialists. Pete Kennaugh is a late scratch due to illness.
Other outsiders include Europcar’s Pierre Rolland, who has not shown much of his uphill ability yet this year, but who will like all the mountains if he can find the form. OGE’s Ivan Santaromita is a talented climber who has not had many opportunities to ride for his own ambitions in his career, but the Australian squad will support him in his home Grand Tour. Finally, Team Colombia’s young Fabio Duarte is coming off a very impressive Giro del Trentino and will hope to make an impression for the Pro Continental squad at the top level.
The Stagehunters
As climber-centric as the parcours appears, there are still a number of stages that look like they will end in sprint finishes, due to the fact that most of the days that do not end in uphill charges look to have profiles that the sprinters can handle. Coastal winds and nerves could play their part, but Stages 2-4, all undertaken before any real climbing challenges, look like contests for the fast men, and this opportunity for bunch gallop finishes so early in the race has drawn a fine list of sprinters. At the same time, the scoring system behind the red points jersey was changed this year to offer more points on flat stages, meaning that the points classification is even more likely to go to a sprinter than in the past, further incentivizing participation by the fast men.
The biggest name among them is Giant-Shimano’s Marcel Kittel, who won four stages at last year’s Tour de France. Giant sends a squad to this race that is 100% devoted to picking up stage wins, with Kittel as their leader and the very talented (and hot in 2014) Luka Mezgec for the stages where Kittel doesn’t make the finish line. This is a surprisingly common occurrence for the young German fast man, who sacrifices a bit of versatility for all that top speed. With the combined Kittel-Mezgec front, it will be very hard to beat GSH in the sprints stages. Kittel might be the favorite for the points classification if that competition did not require you to finish the race, but it does, and he could struggle to hold on in the grueling final week, especially with the Tour as his main objective.
Giacomo Nizzolo, Tyler Farrar, and Fran Ventoso will hope to challenge for sprint victories.
Cannondale’s Elia Viviani is my pick for top non-Giant sprinter, and as an Italian rider with a strong focus on this race, he may be more inclined to stick it out all the way to Trieste. Viviani had a good 2013, but he has been lights out in 2014, beating Mark Cavendish twice in Turkey. It looks like he’s peaking at the perfect time, making him the most likely rider to challenge the GSH sprinting juggernaut. FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni has been on fire this year, winning stages all over the map, and he has the top-end speed to challenge Kittel and Viviani. Giacomo Nizzolo looks strong for Trek after a collarbone injury derailed his early spring campaign. Nizzolo can handle tough days in the saddle and will also look to hang on when his fellow fast men start to abandon. Orica-GreenEdge’s Michael Matthews will lament the lack of more difficult hilly-but-not-too-mountainous stages that might drop his opponents and give him a chance to sprint from a smaller group, but as he showed in the final stage of last year’s Vuelta, he’s quite capable in a traditional sprintfest. Sky’s dynamic duo of Ben Swift and Edvald Boasson Hagen are in a similar boat. Of the two, EBH is very fast but Swift looks like the hotter hand right now. Garmin’s Tyler Farrar has had a resurgent 2014, posting nice results in the classics, and he’ll look to find some tangible success here. OPQS sends Alessandro Petacchi, who still looks remarkably fast in the twilight of his career. Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari is a constant also-ran these days, but he’ll hope to do better this year. Bardiani-CSF’s Sonny Colbrelli, Androni Giocattoli’s Manuel Belletti, Trek’s Boy van Poppel, Movistar’s Fran Ventoso, and AG2R’s Davide Appollonio can hold their own in the sprints as well.
A number of punchy, aggressive climber types are on the startlist looking for stages where they can go long. Bardiani’s Stefano Pirazzi, winner of last year’s KOM competition, will almost certainly go off the front as often as possible seeking another mountain jersey and breakaway wins. Androni Giocattoli’s Emanuele Sella will also be looking to repeat an aggressive Giro campaign.
Riders like Diego Ulissi and Julian Arredondo have the climbing chops to hang with the GC riders on at least a few stages but may not actually contend for the overall classification, and as such, they’re likely to have opportunities to hunt stage wins; other strong climbers who fall off the pace for GC will surely be doing the same. Also look for Cannondale’s Moreno Moser and Daniele Ratto, Neri Sottoli’s Simone Ponzi, Omega Pharma’s Wouter Poels, Europcar’s Yukiya Arashiro, and Astana’s Enrico Gasparotto, either on stages where punchy riders can match the GC men at a hilly finish or jump off the front of the pack.
Lastly, Adriano Malori of Movistar leads a small contingent of time trial specialists looking for success alongside the GC riders in both the team time trial and in Stage 12’s 41.9 kilometer chrono; squad mate Jonathan Castroviejo will be looking for the same. OGE sends a typically elite bunch to challenge in that discipline, with Luke Durbridge, Svein Tuft, Michael Hepburn, Brett Lancaster, and Cam Mayer all strong against the clock. Thomas de Gendt (3rd in the first time trial at last year’s Tour de France) may be focusing on the ITT as his main goal as well.
VeloHuman Favorites
General Classification
Winner: Nairo Quintana Podium: Joaquim Rodriguez, Domenico Pozzovivo Other Top Contenders: Cadel Evans, Michele Scarponi, Rigoberto Uran, Daniel Martin, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Rafal Majka, Nicolas Roche
Points Classification
Winner: Elia Viviani
I will be previewing every stage of the race here at VeloHuman.com, so if you’re looking for picks, make sure to bookmark the page; VeloHuman will bring you the stage profiles, favorites and outsiders for every day of racing. Now that you’ve read the overall race preview, check out the preview and favorites for the TTT on Stage 1! Also, there will be plenty more commentary and analysis on Twitter @VeloHuman. If you’re the type who can’t get enough cycling talk, you will be happy you followed. Hope to see you soon!
