
After weeks and weeks of EuropeTour-level one-day races in Belgium, the final weekend in March ushers in the WorldTour stretch of Classics, opening with E3 Harelbeke. It’s typically a thriller, a race that takes advantage of the cobbled climbs in Flanders and balances them nicely with a long enough finishing straight to make the aggressors work extra hard to escape the pack. In short, an excellent way to kick off the next few weeks of marquee one-day events (the great appeal of this weekend’s racing was one topic covered in the Recon Ride podcast’s E3 + Gent-Wevelgem pre-race show, which is absolutely worth a listen).
The Route
E3 Harelbeke unsurprisingly starts and finishes in the town of Harelbeke, weaving through Flanders along a meandering and often cobbled 218-kilometer route that often crosses over itself. The profile contains 17 official climbs. The first half of the race contains only three of those climbs; the remaining fourteen come in rapid succession inside the second half of the day, finishing with around 22 km to go.
Among those many short but steep climbs are several familiar Tour of Flanders battlegrounds, including the quick (700 meters in full) but vicious (12% average gradient) Paterberg at around kilometer 175 and the longer Oude Kwaremont that follows almost immediately after and is crested around kilometer 180. Even the climbs that don’t seem particularly imposing are made all the more so because of the fact that they’ll be conquered with barely a moment’s rest in between—that, and the constant bone-rattling that will accompany many of them.
Things flatten out and ease up considerably, however, after the Tiegemberg with around 20 kilometer left in the race. From there it’s a less complicated (topographically, at least; this is Belgium after all, where the roads are never easy to race on) ride as the road loops into Harelbeke for the finish.
The Contenders
Though the length of the race doesn’t bring with it quite as much of an intimidation factor as that of Flanders or Paris-Roubaix, the cobbled, uphill challenges absolutely make this a favoring the Classics hard men, which makes it unsurprising that E3 Harelbeke has mostly come down to a late attacker surviving to the in several of the past few years. Still, Tom Boonen’s 2012 victory is an important reminder that this race can come down to a sprint. With so much ground left to cover after the Tiegemberg, it will only be a very strong attack that is capable of surviving a chasing pack in this race. Even in that scenario, a decent sprint could come in handy, if a small group crosses the line together (that’s what happened in 2014, when Peter Sagan outsprinted Geraint Thomas, Niki Terpstra, and Stijn Vandenbergh to win the day).
Fortunately for anyone who likes to watch aggressive racing, several of the Classics season’s strongest aggressors are looking in sharp form right now, making powerful attacks a likelihood for E3 Harelbeke.
34-year-old Fabian Cancellara, who looked good in a Milano-Sanremo that did not particularly suit his less-than elite field sprinting, has won E3 Harelbeke a whopping three times in his career. He won’t exact be able to fly under the radar, but he’s so strong it might not matter. On the other hand, Cancellara is facing a retirement relatively soon, and having won in the past, he may elect to ease off the gas just a tad in the upcoming Monuments. Classics veteran Stijn Devolder is a rider who could get involved as well for Trek.
Peter Sagan, last year’s winner, is certainly in the hunt for Monument victories in 2015. It’s unclear how motivated he is to give it his all in this race after his win here last season failed to quiet critics of his inability to win “the big one.” Still, his combination of Classics-soloing prowess and a deadly sprint make him an obvious favorite once again.
Unlike the aforementioned Cancellara and Sagan, Sep Vanmarcke combines a skillset well-tailored for E3 with a lack of any WorldTour results on his palmares as of yet in his career. Lately his climbing skills and his sprint have both been showing themselves nicely, and they complement his cobblestone-riding strength quite well in this eve. His team support is a bit less strong than it was in year’s past now that Lars Boom is off the team, but Vanmarcke is the total package for the Belgian Classics, and it would be a big surprise to see him doing anything other than attacking last in this race. Form, motivation, and an excellent combination of abilities make him a strong pick to finally win a race at the top level.
Greg Van Avermaet is another rider who brings an excellent combination of form and motivation into E3. Van Avermaet is one of the peloton’s best late attackers who showed top-notch soloing form with a 3rd place in the opening time trial at Tirreno-Adriatico (not typically a discipline that sees him doing particularly well). And if he does launch a trademark attack but is unable to drop everyone else in the finale, his quickness to the line in a reduced sprint could make the difference here. His teammate Daniel Oss has been having a strong season and will be a rider to keep an eye on as well.
Etixx-Quickstep and Team Sky both sport multiple-pronged attacks to light up this race as the cobbled and uphill sections start coming fast and furious. Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, and Stijn Vandenbergh head up a powerful EQS, with Stybar looking like the most fit for this race (his climbing legs and his finishing kick stand out among his teammates), especially after his Strade Bianche victory. Meanwhile, Geraint Thomas, who is such a good climber it’d be disingenuous to pigeonhole him as a “Classics specialist,” may be the strongest option on a strong Sky squad, though Ian Stannard is a major danger as well.
After his Milano-Sanremo victory, John Degenkolb looks to be the class of the group of riders coming into this race hoping for a reduced sprint. His climbing ability will be particularly useful here in E3. Alexander Kristoff is another obvious name to watch in the sprint department; he doesn’t have Degenkolb’s uphill ability but he’s strong enough that he might be able to close gaps if he loses ground on the climbs; teammate Luca Paolini is an ideal supporter and deadly second.
Lars Boom, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Sylvain Chavanel and Heinrich Haussler, Filippo Pozzato, Sebastian Langeveld, and Jurgen Roelandts are other top riders to watch for this race.
VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites
Winner: Sep Vanmarcke
Podium: Greg Van Avermaet, Peter Sagan
Other Top Contenders: Fabian Cancellara, Stijn Vandenbergh, Geraint Thomas, Zdenek Stybar, Ian Stannard, Niki Terpstra, John Degenkolb
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis from the roadside in Flanders!
-Dane Cash