Tag: Elia Viviani

Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 17 Preview

Stage 17: Tirano › Lugano – 134km

The fact that a climber (like stage winner Mikel Landa) would win Stage 16 was obvious from the profile alone, but the Stage 17 profile could be deceiving. It’s a mostly flat stage, with only a single categorized climb on offer (a very early Cat. 3) and just 134km of racing from start to finish (in Lugano, Switzerland). At first glance, it looks like a great day for the sprinters.

But we’re now into the Giro’s final week, and there will be some tired sprinters in the bunch. What’s more, the peloton just took on a brutal day of climbing, and there are more brutal days of climbing ahead. Combine those facts with the fact that the Giro peloton has already displayed an inability to control the breakaway on what appear to be clear sprinters’ days and you have a recipe for another potential opportunity to for the aggressors to steal one from the quick men.

I see it is a 50-50 proposition on this stage. So many sprinters have left the race that it will be harder for those remaining to do the job of keeping the breakaway controlled, but at the same time, this profile is one that should allow them to do so if they manage to stay organized. In any case, at least in terms of naming favorites, the three top sprinters left in this race are certainly stronger individual favorites than any one rider who trying his luck in the crapshoot that is getting into a breakaway on a stage like this. If it does come down to a sprint, a challenging finale with a few late corners will make this an exciting, if somewhat dangerous, stage finish.

Giacomo Nizzolo nearly came away with the elusive victory he has so long sought in the Giro d’Italia on Stage 13, but Sacha Modolo closed the door on him in the final 100 meters with a strong kick and a not-altogether-noble swerve toward the barriers. Still, Nizzolo looked quite strong there despite a complete lack of leadout support in the final 2km, and he’s shown several times in his career an ability to position himself well in a technical finale, even if he doesn’t always time his subsequent sprint kick successfully. This stage suits him, and he’s strong right now; if the breakers are caught, he has a great chance to finally get that win. Sacha Modolo meanwhile, with the powerful Lampre-Merida leadout to guide him to the line, has his own great chance here, a chance to double up on Giro victories. His teammates did a brilliant job to put him in position to win Stage 13, and they’ll be eager to do so again here. He’s looking strong right now too.

Elia Viviani obviously looked great on Stage 2, but since then he hasn’t been quite as impressive. Still, he should be right up there in terms of top speed with the remaining sprinters left in the race and therefore will be among the favorites in a potential sprint here on Stage 17.

Luka Mezgec has shown flashes of that sort of speed in the past but he’s been a bit lackluster in the sprints in this Giro. Giant-Alpecin is nearing the finish of a Grand Tour in which they’ve achieved very little, however, which could motivate them to perform here before the race goes back into the high mountains where they will have little opportunity to impact the events. Alessandro Petacchi, JJ Lobato, Moreno Hofland, and Davide Appollonio are other options for a potential sprint finish.

If a breakaway goes clear, strong engines Sylvain Chavanel (of Swiss team IAM Cycling) and Silvan Diller (of Switzerland) will be among the top riders to keep an eye on. Philippe Gilbert, Fabio Felline, Giovanni Visconti, and Patrick Gretsch are others on the list of riders who might have the energy to get up the road after a hard day in the mountains, though the list of riders with a chance here if Stage 17 does go to the breakaway is almost endless.

VeloHuman Stage 17 Favorites

1. Giacomo Nizzolo | 2. Sacha Modolo | 3. Elia Viviani

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 17 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 26, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Montecatini Terme › Castiglione della Pescaia – 183km

Following two days of GC action and breakaway success (Jan Polanc won Stage 5 with a long-range move), the peloton will return to mostly flat roads for what should be a day for the sprinters.

Stage 6 opens and closes with long flat sections, with a bit of climbing (a single Cat. 4 and several uncategorized bumps) in between. It’s hard to see anything other than a bunch sprint for victory here. The finale involves a few corners and roundabouts but the last kilometer is basically a straightaway perfectly tailored for a drag race.

Unlike last year’s Giro, the 2015 edition of the Tour of Italy is lacking a dominant sprinter, but there are several very strong quick men who should battle it out for the win.

André Greipel, at his best, should be faster than the field. But he’s looked a bit below his best so far. He’s also somewhat inconsistent, and not prone to take control of all of a race’s sprint stages, even though he can beat the world’s best on a good day. On Stage 2, he opened up his sprint too early and couldn’t sustain his power on the slight incline to the line. Here, he’ll try to time things better, and prove that he’s still got what it takes to be the top favorite for this sort of profile.

Elia Viviani timed things just right on Stage 2, taking a victory on the day, and he’s worn the red jersey ever since. He lacks the level of leadout support that some of his rivals enjoy, but as I already pointed out in the Stage 2 preview when talking up his chances, I tend to think the necessity of a strong leadout is overstated by many observers. A fast rider with positioning savvy can win a sprint without much help, and Viviani has a great chance to do that again on Stage 6. Like Greipel, though he tends to have good and bad days, so it will be interesting to see if he’s still at the same level in this sprint that he was showing off on the second day of the race.

Giacomo Nizzolo has great top-end speed and will love the long, straight finale. He sometimes struggles when timing a jump coming out of a corner is required (even though he is a good bike handler), so he’ll be happy to focus more on the matter of getting up to blazing speed here in this probable sprint finish.

Sacha Modolo has beaten Mark Cavendish more than once in a bunch kick. It’s a bit hard to predict how he’ll do because he can go from hot to cold very quickly, but he seems to be pretty fast right now (he took a nice stage win in Turkey) and like Greipel and Viviani, if he’s on a good day he can be pretty hard to beat.

Moreno Hofland took 2nd on Stage 2 of this race somewhat surprisingly. He’s had big results in the past but against this company and in this big of a race, I didn’t expect him to come so close to the win. He tends to appreciate the slight gradients at the line (which this stage lacks) but he’ll still be dangerous.

Luka Mezgec was 4th on Stage 2 and has the always impressive Giant-Alpecin to set him up nicely coming into the final straightaway. The winner of last year’s final Giro d’Italia stage should be in the mix with the other favorites again.

Michael Matthews may have lost the pink jersey on the road to Abetone, but he’ll have plenty more opportunities for wins in this race, including here in this Stage 6. People often say that Matthews is “not a sprinter” because of his versatility, but in the same way that they’ll say that about Peter Sagan (who just beat Mark Cavendish in a Tour of California sprint) as well, that undermines the amazing finishing kick he does have. He’s capable of winning a bunch sprint if everything goes his way.

Juan José Lobato, Matteo Pelucchi, Tom Boonen, Nicola Ruffoni, and Alessandro Petacchi are others to watch in the field sprint likely to close out Stage 6.

VeloHuman Stage 6 Favorites

1. André Greipel | 2. Elia Viviani | 3. Giacomo Nizzolo

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and remember to check back after the conclusion of Stage 6 for the preview of the next stage.

-Dane Cash

May 14, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 21 Preview

Stage 21: Gemona del Friuli > Trieste – 172 km

Just like that, the final stage of the 2014 Giro d’Italia is here. It’s been an eventful ride, and not without controversy, but it all comes to a close at the Trieste finish line. It’s a huge accomplishment to finish a Grand Tour, and the fans will line the road to voice their admiration as the peloton bids farewell. The fast men have braved several grueling climbs in the past few days (including the brutal Monte Zoncolan conquered by Michael Rogers on Stage 20) to reach this last contest.

The Stage 21 course is pretty straightforward. The riders will traverse a little over 114 kilometers of mostly flat roads to reach Trieste, where the stage and the 2014 Giro d’Italia will finish after eight laps of a 7.15 km city circuit. Each lap involves both a small climb of a little less than a kilometer at an average gradient a bit over 4%, and then a quick but somewhat technical descent. The final kilometer includes an early left hook, but from there it’s a mostly straightforward run to the line, with a gentle rightward curve in the final 500 meters.

While there are a few bumps along the journey, it’s hard to see the sprinters letting this one get away from them. The Giro’s final stage is a big prize, and after the initial period of riding at a parade pace is over, the sprint trains are going to ramp up the speed to shut down anyone with dreams of getting ahead for a solo victory. Anything other than a bunch gallop among the heavyweight fast men will be a shock.

It’s been a while since the sprinters had the spotlight, but little has changed in the predictive pecking order. FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni, three times a stage winner already and wearer of the red points jersey, is the rider to beat. At the beginning of this race, it seemed that he might abandon in the mountains, but when Marcel Kittel exited the race early and left the sprints open to Bouhanni, the young French star found himself in the driver’s seat for the points jersey very quickly. He resolved to survive the mountains, and survive he did. Now, he’s got an excellent opportunity to pick up win number four. His rivals will have to step up their game if they want to beat Bouhanni; he has already proven himself best in the sprints in this Giro d’Italia.

Giacomo Nizzolo, three time runner-up to Bouhanni, may have his best opportunity to finally nab a win here in Stage 21. There are twists and turns late in the circuit, but the final 500 meters only involve a slight rightward pull, which should allow the sprinters to reach some high speeds. Nizzolo has struggled a bit with positioning and timing in this Giro’s sprint stages, but for once the last several hundred meters will set up a pretty straightforward gallop to the line. This is his last chance to defeat Bouhanni, so I expect that he’ll hit an impressive velocity on this finishing straight.

Cannondale’s Elia Viviani has excellent top-speed, and while he and his squad have disappointed in this race, I think they have a nice chance to get it right in this finale, which is relatively uncomplicated compared to some of the technical circuits they faced early in the Giro. Cannondale doesn’t have a GC rider to worry about, and they haven’t picked up a single stage in the race: they are going to go all out to get Viviani into position here.

Giant-Shimano’s Luka Mezgec should be in the mix. A strong GSH leadout will position him well to take on the other fast men. Sky’s Ben Swift should be there as well, fighting for this last chance to bring home a victory for a team that has had so many near misses but no wins in the Giro. Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari and Garmin’s Tyler Farrar are strong outsiders. Bardiani-CSF’s Enrico Battaglin will hope to pick up one more victory for his very successful squad. Movistar’s Francisco Ventoso might even give it a go, as his duty protecting Nairo Quintana is finally coming to an end.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nacer Bouhanni | 2. Giacomo Nizzolo | 3. Elia Viviani

It’s been a blast previewing every stage in this race! I hope you’ve enjoyed it as much as I have. If you don’t already, follow me @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis, and stay tuned for previews of the Criterium du Dauphine, the Tour de Suisse, and, of course, the Tour de France (with individual previews of all 21 stages), along with plenty of other great content over the next few weeks.

May 31, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 13 Preview

Stage 13: Fossano > Rivarolo Canavese – 157 km

The Stage 12 ITT was a decisive one for the GC men. It rained heavily early on the day, but things dried out considerably for the later starters, throwing yet another variable into an already wide open stage. Climbing star Diego Ulissi even had the lead for a while (out of nowhere, I think it’s safe to say), until Rigoberto Uran put in a stellar performance to take the victory. Now, the GC riders get to enjoy a day that isn’t likely to have any GC implications. There are some minor bumps along the 157 kilometer journey from Fossano to Rivarolo Canavese, but with a flat finish and some very tough mountain days ahead, Stage 13 will be an enticing prize for the sprinters’ teams.

The small rollers shouldn’t trouble the fast men much, but as usual, the organizers have designed another difficult run-in, with some late twists and turns. Things actually go uphill a bit from about the 1-km-to-go mark to the 500-m-to-go mark before leveling out towards the line. A sharp right-hander awaits with 250 meters to go, and then the finishing straight is a little over 200 meters long.

Nacer Bouhanni delivered a third stage win in the last Giro bunch sprint, and until his rivals show that they can position themselves and time their jumps more successfully on these very technical run-ins to the line, Bouhanni remains the favorite. In every sprint preview I feel the need to point out that I don’t think Bouhanni is necessarily faster than his opponents; he’s a wily bike rider who gets into perfect position and uses his elite acceleration to carry him past the other sprinters on the road. I continue to believe that the gap between Bouhanni and the rest of the field is smaller than it looks, but no one else seems capable of closing it at the moment, making him the favorite.

Giacomo Nizzolo appears to have the best chance for taking the win from the points leader. He’s been 2nd on all three stages that Bouhanni has taken. Each time, he’s put in a great turn of speed, but he tends to mistime his move. In Stage 10, he hit the wind way too early and Bouhanni simply jumped on his wheel and then swung out in the closing meters for the victory. Perhaps Nizzolo will get it right some time during this race, though he hasn’t seemed to figure it out just yet.

A crash ruined Elia Viviani‘s chances on Stage 10, and he’s significantly further down in the red jersey competition than he thought he’d be at this point. He’s motivated to put in a better performance this time around, but these technical finishes do not treat Viviani or his leadout kindly. He also seems to be just a bit slower than he was earlier in the season. Still, rain, crashes, and some very physical jostling for position have kept him from getting to top speed in the last few sprint stages, so I am not counting him out.

Giant-Shimano has been providing Luka Mezgec with strong leadout support in the absence of Marcel Kittel. Mezgec doesn’t have the top-end speed to match the very best, but with this sort of help from his team, he can win anyway. Bouhanni’s domination may make these flat stages look predictable, but I don’t think GSH has been very far off the mark getting Mezgec perfectly placed to take the win, and Stage 13 could be their moment.

Barring a crash, Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari will almost certainly be in the Top 10. He’s been amazingly consistent in this Giro. Actually winning the stage will be a big ask, but he’s an aggressive rider who fights very hard (sometimes a little too hard) for positioning and that makes him a contender.

Sky’s Ben Swift has been hampered by injury in the past few sprints but he should be coming back into shape now. Edvald Boasson Hagen will play his standard role of star lieutenant. Garmin’s Tyler Farrar will hope to prove that he can stay upright through the twists and turns. With Nicola Ruffoni out of the race for Bardiani, Enrico Battaglin and Sonny Colbrelli will hope to pick up the slack. Androni Giocatolli’s Manuel Belletti and Omega Pharma’s Alessandro Petacchi could also feature.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nacer Bouhanni | 2. Giacomo Nizzolo | 3. Luka Mezgec

Keep an eye out for the Stage 14 preview after the Stage 13 comes to a close. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

-Dane Cash

May 22, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 10 Preview

Stage 10: Modena > Salsomaggiore Terme – 173 km

After the rest day, it’s a very flat stage likely to go the sprinters. The all-rounders will enjoy the extended break from climbing after back-to-back days in the mountains. Pieter Weening hung on for Sunday’s Stage 9 victory after a long day in the breakaway and Domenico Pozzovivo picked up some valuable time on the rest of the GC contenders who finished mostly together atop a tough final climb.

If the sprinters let Stage 10 one get away from them, they will have really dropped the ball: the profile shouldn’t leave much room for alternate scenarios. That last bump in the road is not particularly challenging, and shouldn’t cause any problems for the fast men. It is, however, followed by a tricky high-speed descent and yet another technical final few kilometers (the Giro seems to love forcing riders to put their bike handling skills on display at every sprint finish in the race) that will make the fight for position fierce.

I am running out of new ways to name the same few riders as favorites for the flatter days, so I’ll just keep it direct. Nacer Bouhanni has shown that he’s the sprinter to beat in this Giro d’Italia now that Marcel Kittel is no longer in the race. He has the acceleration, he has the top speed, and, of special importance in these technical finishes, he has the ability to get himself into the right position for the final kick, even without a strong leadout. Until the other quick men show that they can put it all together as well as he can, Bouhanni is the favorite.

That being said, Cannondale’s Elia Viviani, Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo, and Giant-Shimano’s Luka Mezgec are all very speedy and they all have dedicated leadouts working hard to get them set up perfectly for success. Having defeated Mark Cavendish twice already this season (in Turkey), Viviani may have the highest ceiling in the sprints, but his train hasn’t quite figured things out yet and Viviani himself has fallen short even when he has looked well-positioned in the last moments. Nizzolo looks in top shape but he continues to find himself just slightly out of place in the final meters, going too early or too late. Mezgec has a stellar leadout and he showed in Stage 7 that he has the ability to mix it up with the very best in the race, but he still has a bit to prove as he has only had a few opportunities to race for himself in the biggest races at this point in his young career. Really, any of these riders could get it right on Stage 10.

Roberto Ferrari of Lampre-Merida has been remarkably consistent in this Giro, finishing in the Top 7 of all four sprint stages thus far. Maybe he’ll turn that consistency into a victory here. Sky’s Ben Swift and Edvald Boasson Hagen combination have been protagonists as well; both went down in Stage 6 but hopefully at least one of the pair is back to full strength by now. Orica-GreenEdge’s Michael Matthews was a strong 4th in Stage 7, and now that he’s not in the pink jersey anymore his team won’t be spending as much time on the front of the peloton, which should give them a bit more freshness for the leadout. Garmin-Sharp’s Tyler Farrar, AG2R’s Davide Appollonio, Androni Giacattoli’s Manuel Belletti and Omega Pharma’s Alessandro Petacchi lead up a list of outsiders a bit further on the periphery.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nacer Bouhanni | 2. Elia Viviani | 3. Giacomo Nizzolo

The preview of Stage 11 will be up Tuesday evening after the conclusion of Stage 10. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

May 19, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: Frosinone > Foligno – 211 km

Despite a few early hills on the profile, the GC men should have an opportunity to let the stagehuners take the driver’s seat on the Giro’s seventh stage. It will be a very welcome opportunity coming on the heels of the wildest day in this race so far. Late carnage on rainslicked roads on Stage 6 saw a number of riders hit the deck and slowed many more, allowing a small group that included BMC’s Cadel Evans and Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge to gap the bunch at the start of the final climb. Those behind eventually organized a chase, but the small group held their lead all the way up the slope, with VH stage favorite Michael Matthews sprinting to his first win of the Giro when they reached the top. With a few bonus seconds for his 3rd place on the stage thrown in, Evans picked up 53 seconds on the chasing group that included Nairo Quintana, Rigoberto Uran, and a few other contenders, but it took some time for the full consequences of the day’s carnage to be known. Those consequences turned out to be dire for several very big GC names, including one of the biggest in the race: Joaquim Rodriguez suffered a broken finger and bruised ribs in the crash, and although he did finish the stage, he has abandoned the Giro d’Italia. It’s another heartbreaking turn of events for Purito, who was so hopeful of finally getting that first Grand Tour win in this event. Several other GC contenders lost varying amounts of time. To name just a few, Lampre’s Damiano Cunego and Astana’s Michele Scarponi lost about a minute and a half to Evans, and Cunego’s teammate Przemyslaw Niemiec lost closer to two minutes, but they were relatively lucky compared to Saxo-Tinkoff’s Nicolas Roche, who came across the line fifteen minutes down.

Purito wasn’t the only rider who abandoned in the wake of the crash-marred sixth stage (the list of abandons includes Purito’s teammates Angel Vicioso and Giampaolo Caruso, who are both out after suffering nasty injuries as well), so it will be a somewhat smaller peloton that sets out from Frosinone in Stage 7. There are a number of bumps along the road to Foligno, but none of them are particularly challenging, and the last one is crested with 40 km still to go on the day. Breakers will surely take their chances, but with a long, flat run to finish line, the sprinters’ teams should make a strong effort to pull back anyone who gets too far up the road. A breakaway victory is certainly possible, but I think a bunch sprint is the more likely outcome. Whatever the size of the lead group entering town, a nasty hairpin with about 1.5 km remaining will make for a fierce fight to get into position early, but the final kilometer that follows is not as technical as some we’ve seen so far; there is a gentle right turn with around 500 meters to go, but it shouldn’t slow down the riders too much. I don’t think the profile will be too much for any of the major sprinter names to handle, so after two days of finishes open to a considerably more versatile cast of contenders, I think we’ll see the familiar top-flight fastmen battling it out in the finale.

Cannondale has looked strong on every sprint stage of this race so far, but they haven’t been able to nail down their timing just yet. If they can perfect things here, Elia Viviani will be tough to beat, with an elite turn of top speed. He’s the first of my (probably unsurprising) trio of stage favorites. FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni is the second. I think his leadout is something of a disadvantage, but he’s very good at fighting for his own position when he has to, and he already has a stage victory to prove that he is one of the fastest riders in this Giro. Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo is the other rider I see as a top favorite. He has some excellent squadmates to deliver him to the finish at a very high speed, but he always finds himself just slightly out of position. I think he’s likely to get it right eventually, and I bet he’ll be flying over the final kilometer of Stage 7.

Luka Mezgec, now that Marcel Kittel is gone, will benefit from one of the best leadouts in the Giro d’Italia. He took the the final stage of WorldTour racing in 2013 in the Tour of Beijing, winning a sprint finish over both Bouhanni and Viviani, so I think he’s a real contender now that he’s Giant’s featured rider.

Sky seems to be behind Ben Swift on the flatter sprints in this race, with Edvald Boasson Hagen playing a fantastic second. The pair are quite formidable. I think they’d prefer a more challenging final half-hour of racing, but Swift was 2nd behind only Marcel Kittel on Stage 3 and will probably continue to place highly on even the flat days. As a note, Sky showed on Stage 5 that they aren’t afraid of sending one of their quick men into a break, and on this profile that has at least some potential for breakaway success, I don’t think it’s out of the question that they try again; Boasson Hagen is a particularly talented breakaway artist.

Pink jersey wearer Michael Matthews would absolutely prefer more challenges on the profile, but he’s likely to at least be in contention late again. Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari is a pretty constant fixture in the Top 10s of this Giro’s sprint finishes. He lacks the team support to be considered a big favorite but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him nab one of these sprint stages with some luck. Tyler Farrar hit the deck hard in Stage 6, so his overall health is something of an unknown. Manuel Belletti, Davide Appollonio, Francesco Chicchi, Jetse Bol, Tony Hurel, Alessandro Petacchi (should he finally decide to contend a sprint), and Nicola Ruffoni headline the other names who could challenge in a bunch gallop.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Elia Viviani | 2. Nacer Bouhanni | 3. Giacomo Nizzolo

Check back after Stage 7 for the preview of Stage 8; Saturday’s racing is likely to provide some GC fireworks! If you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis of the Giro, and of the Tour of California as well!

-Dane Cash

May 15, 2014