Tag: Fabian Cancellara

Ronde van Vlaanderen 2014 Post-race Impressions: Cancellara in a Class of His Own

Quickly Summing Up the Action at the 2014 Tour of Flanders

Pais Vasco kicked off today in Ordizia (check out the VeloHuman preview!), which means that De Ronde 2014 is now history. Sunday’s battle on the cobbles of East Flanders made for an incredibly exciting contest, with action enough for several races throughout the long day on the road. At times, it looked like anyone’s game, with constant crashes and daring attacks providing plenty of uncertainty to keep things interesting. Riders were dropping like flies with each climb. As the front of the pack approached the last few hillingen with two-time winner Fabian Cancellara among them, an air of inevitability started to creep in. The other contenders sensed it and did what they could, with Greg Van Avermaet and Stijn Vandenbergh going off the nose a bit over 30 km out. When Spartacus jumped from the chasers on the brutal Oude Kwaremont on his way to track them down, only Sep Vanmarcke could follow up the bone-rattling cobbles; fellow pre-race favorites Peter Sagan and Tom Boonen were unable to hang on.

From there, it was a matter of Cancellara and Vanmarcke catching the men in front, which they did, and the foursome hanging on ahead of the pack. Their bid was successful, leading to a four man sprint for the 94th Tour of Flanders. A game of cat and mouse ensued, with each rider jockeying for the best position and trying to plan the perfect time to turn on the ignition, but even with 3-to-1 odds, the Belgian trio could not match Cancellara in the final gallop. Spartacus delivered again Sunday to pick up his 3rd win in the Monument Classic, with Greg Van Avermaet 2nd and Sep Vanmarcke a disappointed 3rd.

Lessons Learned Along the Road to Oudenaarde

Fabian Cancellara‘s 3rd Ronde van Vlaanderen victory is his seventh Monument. That ties him with Tom Boonen, and it does not look like Spartacus is slowing yet. He has shined on the two biggest stages of the year, outclassing some of the best sprinters in the world on his way to a 2nd place in Milano-Sanremo and then using his sprint again even more effectively to take De Ronde. Though the Trek rider just turned 33 this March, both his finishing kick and his powerful engine seem to be as strong as ever. He has said that he may retire within the next few years, but given his current form, he’s likely to fill those years with more success, especially in the most beloved one-day races on the calendar, which also happen to be the most grueling—and therefore suit him perfectly. This Sunday’s Paris-Roubaix will be the perfect place for the strongest of strongmen to take yet another major victory. He enters as the big favorite after this dominant show.

Perhaps the second biggest story of the Ronde van Vlaanderen was Peter Sagan‘s inability to match Cancellara on the Oude Kwaremont. Despite showing strong form in several big races so far this season, Sagan had no answer for Spartacus on the brutal final hillingen. It would be hard and probably incorrect to pinpoint any one reason why his ability to nab races like Gent-Wevelgem and E3 Harelbeke has not translated into a Monument yet. A few factors come to mind. First, he does seem sapped of power when the odometer gets over 240 kilometers, as it does in these races. His Milano-Sanremo 2014 sprint was far less impressive than it usually is, and his uphill burst seemed drastically reduced when Cancellara turned on the afterburners in this weekend’s Tour of Flanders. Sagan’s team support, or lack thereof, may be another major factor—Sagan does not have Cancellara’s ability to carry on over tens of kilometers alone, and while it can’t be said that Cannondale does not surround the young Slovakian with talent, he is too often left without assistance at key moments in a race. Whatever has held him back, I don’t think it necessarily counts him out for this Sunday’s Paris-Roubaix, even if it seems to suit him less than other races. The truth of the matter is that any rider can have an off-day when he least wants to, and it’s always possible that Sagan just hasn’t gotten his best days to line up with the biggest races yet.

Sep Vanmarcke impressed me more than most other riders in the race with his ability to jump up the Oude Kwaremont behind Cancellara. It is a serious climb, meaning that even if he has yet to win a big race this season, Vanmarcke is on serious form. In my mind, Vanmarcke is right with four-time winner Tom Boonen as top challengers to Cancellara in Paris-Roubaix. Without the uphill mileage of the Ronde, the Hell of the North may be a better shot for Vanmarcke. He’s perfected the art of holding Cancellara’s wheel, and, learning from the best, one day soon he might just time his own attack perfectly.

What more can I say about Greg Van Avermaet that hasn’t already been said? It’s hard not to root for the 28-year old, a constant fixture in the spring classics. The BMC rider has shown in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and on Sunday in Flanders that he is in great shape in 2014, and with such a high probability of a good placing in almost every race he takes on, it seems likely that one of these days, he might win the final sprint to the line or solo away and stay out until the finish line. Better tactics (not wasting energy trying to drop Stijn Vandenbergh) will help as well.

Tom Boonen was unable to hang with the lead group on Sunday, but he did manage to end up a respectable 7th. His thumb seems to still be affecting him; I’d say he ran a decent race given his injury, and hopefully, he will continue to heal and challenge for Paris-Roubaix. OPQS as a whole will (and should) be very disappointed with the way things turned out. Their best placed rider Stijn Vandenbergh did not come close in the sprint. Niki Terpstra tried to pick up Boonen’s slack with an attempt to bridge to the final foursome, but was unsuccessful. Zdenek Stybar was among the big group of chasers but did not manage to make waves. They will look to bounce back in Paris-Roubaix. With last year’s 3rd place finisher (Terpstra) and 6th place finisher (Stybar, who might have been on the podium himself if not for a spectator crash) lining up alongside Tom Boonen (another week removed from his thumb injury) in a race he has dominated, they are set up nicely.

Milano-Sanremo winner Alexander Kristoff forced himself further into the Paris-Roubaix conversation with a 5th place in the Ronde van Vlaanderen. It would have been something if the Katusha hardman had won the bunch sprint behind the leading group as he did last year, but his 2014 performance, while landing him a 5th instead of 4th, was arguably more impressive, as it involved him jumping into an attempt to bridge with only one other rider (Niki Terpstra) and then going it alone for the closing minutes of the race. The fact that he was able to be up there when Sagan and John Degenkolb had fallen away speaks volumes about Kristoff’s talent. His abilities shine brightest on the toughest days. Paris-Roubaix is one such day, and Kristoff will look to improve on his 2013 result, 9th place, in this edition. Without climbs but with all the brutality of a cobbled Monument Classics, P-R could be a great stage for Kristoff.

Cancellara’s dominance, the rise of Kristoff and Vanmarcke, and the continued disappointment for Sagan may be the biggest takeaways from the 2014 Ronde, but in my mind they come with a major caveat. On the harsh cobbles of the spring classics, races can change in an instant (Cancellara knows this better than anyone thanks to his 2012 crash). Any rider can have a great day or a terrible day, and the conditions of the Monuments tend to push this fact to its extremes. In short, Fabian Cancellara was the most dominant rider on Sunday and he’ll enter Paris-Roubaix the favorite, but when the gears start turning and the adrenaline gets pumping, it only takes one perfectly-timed move by one in-form challenger to shake things up. As usual, VeloHuman will be previewing the excitement to come, and tweeting more thoughts @VeloHuman on Twitter (be sure to follow!).

-Dane Cash

Photo by Mark Blacknell. Video courtesy of CyclingHub.

April 8, 2014
Ronde van Vlaanderen 2014 Preview

The Lay of the Land at the 98th Tour of Flanders

The crown jewel of the Flanders classics is finally here. Weeks of racing on the cobbles of Northern Europe have offered insights into who has the most in the tank right now, but on Sunday we get to see the big show, De Ronde van Vlaanderen. It is a 259 kilometer journey from Bruges to the finish line. The first 90 kilometers or so are relatively flat and the road does not meander much on its way to the first visit of finishing city Oudenaard, but then, the parcours turns hostile, winding sharply in a number of loops through East Flanders and greeting the riders with a constant barrage of steep, often cobbled climbs. The 2.2 kilometer, 4.2% average grade Oude Kwaremont (with a half kilometer at over 10%) must be ascended three times, twice with the Paterberg (roughly 380 meters, 13%) immediately following. The second ascent of this Oude Kwaremont/Paterberg double comes with only 15 km to go, after a battery of other climbs that includes the Koppenberg, Taaienberg, and Kruisberg. Any of the aforementioned bumps in the road could be a launching pad for a rider with the legs to fly solo on the way to a Monumental victory. Weather sometimes further complicates things in this race; the forecast for Sunday show clouds with a slight chance of rain at the moment. The wind will likely factor as well.

As the riders take on these grueling challenges, I’ll be tweeting live analysis of the race at the new @VeloHuman on Twitter. Be sure to follow!

The Riders to Watch

Last year’s winner Fabian Cancellara enters the race as a slight favorite among the bookmakers. Cancellara has shown strong legs in the early goings this season, but you might not know it from the results of the past few weeks in Belgium. Caught behind crashes in both E3 and Gent-Wevelgem, he has not been able to put his world-beating power on display at the very front of the race; he has, however, shown off strong form trying to recover. Meanwhile, his Milano-Sanremo sprint for 2nd against a very talented field shows a great deal of strength at the level of his game as well. Cancellara builds his season around the seven days between this and next Sunday, and it will be hard to match him on the road. He also has a two-time winner of this race in teammate Stijn Devolder, a rider capable of pulling for his team leader or launching attacks if necessary (don’t count out Devolder as a contender—he is only a few years removed from back-to-back victories and looks good this season).

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan occupied the next step on the podium of the 2013 Ronde. The Slovakian has not let up in 2014, winning E3 Harelbeke and taking 3rd in the less selective Gent-Wevelgem. I’ve been suggesting in past previews and post-race analyses that he may be focusing more seriously on his climbing and soloing abilities this year, possibly at the expense of his sprint. After this weekend, there won’t be any more guesswork on that front. Perhaps the biggest hurdle standing in the way of his bid for victory will be the distance; the one-day races Sagan has won in the recent past have been shorter contests, and in the seemingly interminable Monuments like Sunday’s Tour of Flanders, he has had trouble maintaining the level of energy that rival Cancellara seems to be able to muster. In short, it will be very difficult to match Spartacus in this grueling contest. However, this is a major goal of Peter Sagan’s season and he has another year of experience under his belt to help him in 2014. Knowing when to attempt the decisive attack and when to find a wheel is crucial in this race. I believe Sagan will also benefit from a larger group of contenders helping track down a late Cancellara solo move. His teammate Oscar Gatto is a very strong rider on these roads who is having a good early season to boot. He will be a valuable lieutenant against so many teams stacked with talent.

Tom Boonen missed the 2013 edition of this race (which he has won three times), but he is back and looking strong at the head of the Omega Pharma-Quick Step attack this year. He has been able to stay near the front of the races he has targetted this season, and victories in Qatar and Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne and a strong showing at Gent-Wevelgem are evidence of his still impressive finishing kick. His classics campaign has not been without its misfortunes, however; tragedy has struck his personal life, and he sustained a painful thumb injury at E3 Harelbeke. He is, with Cancellara and Sagan, in the top tier of bookmakers’ favorites for this race, but OPQS will have a host of options should Boonen not be up to the challenge. Teammate Niki Terpstra is on fire this spring, winning Dwars door Vlaanderen and coming in 2nd in E3 Harelbeke after showing strong legs at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and February’s Tour of Qatar (which he won). With form like this, he is a serious threat to go long. Zdenek Stybar is the team’s wild card. The winner of 2013’s Eneco Tour and 6th place finisher in Paris-Roubaix is not far removed from winning the 2013-2014 cyclocross world championship race, and he looked very capable on the climbs of Paris-Nice and the brutal Milano-Sanremo in March. Stybar has shown a remarkable ability to make it up and over the short, steep bumps in the road, and I think this skill will set him up nicely in the Ronde. Teammate Stijn Vandenbergh has also been very active this spring, while Guillaume van Keirsbulck has just won the Three Days of De Panne.

Belkin’s Sep Vanmarcke occupies a role on the fringe on the top tier favorites, as the main challenger to the established trio of Cancellara, Sagan, and Boonen. He has been in the top 5 of all four Belgian races he has undertaken in 2014, showing plenty of power and a strong finish. He has been knocking on the door for a few years now, though he is yet to nab a win at this level. 2014 seems as good a year as any. In 2013, the 25-year-old Belgian stood on the podium of Paris-Roubaix, a position he earned by hanging with Cancellara himself (alone among all the other riders in that race); he clearly has a wealth of talent. Still, the Ronde offers some serious uphill challenges, and it is the one major Belgian classic race that Vanmarcke does not have a big result in as of yet. It will be interesting to see if he can up his game a notch to handle cobbled climb after cobbled climb. He will be supported by a deep squad that includes Lars Boom.

Jurgen Roelandts was the third man on the podium in 2013, and he returns to the Ronde in 2014 looking sharp early this year. He has spent much of his time on the road as Andre Greipel’s top lieutenant, but he has shown strong form when given the opportunity. In last week’s Gent-Wevelgem, he took up the reins for Lotto when Greipel went down in the final kilometers, and still managed a respectable 10th. Meanwhile, teammate Tony Gallopin, winner of the 2013 Clasica de San Sebastian, has put together several fine performances so far this year. A true all-rounder, he will hope to put pressure on his opponents on the race’s many inclines. With Roelandts and Gallopin at the helm, Lotto-Belisol is not a team to be underestimated. Team Sky is another dangerous squad with multiple versatile options. Ian Stannard will be sidelined for a while with a serious back injury, but Geraint Thomas was 3rd at E3 Harelbeke and on track for a podium finish in the recent Paris-Nice before crashing out of that race. He is riding at a very high level right now, and has the toughness to hold on when the other contenders start to fall off the pace. Meanwhile, teammate Edvald Boasson Hagen looked very strong in this year’s Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and has continued to show form in support of his teammates in the run-up to De Ronde. His sprint is a known commodity, and he’s a danger man should he be at the front of the race as it nears its conclusion. Even Bradley Wiggins is here, filling in for the injured Stannard.

BMC’s Greg van Avermaet has notched three top 10s in this race, two in the past two years. He came so close to winning Omloop Het Nieuwsblad in early March, and has looked decent in the past few cobbled races. He certainly possesses the right array of skills, mixing capable climbing legs with a knack for going solo and a strong finish, but whether all of his combined strengths will shine bright enough to beat out the serious competition in this race is the big unknown. A top 10 is always within his reach; the win always seems just out of it. Perhaps 2014 is the year it all comes together? Meanwhile, BMC also sends Taylor Phinney, recovering from an ailment but maybe a factor with a late attack, and Thor Hushovd, should the bunch somehow stay intact to the line.

Gent-Wevelgem winner John Degenkolb of Giant-Shimano will also hope he can hang on while riders try to blow up the race on the likes of the Koppenberg and Oude Kwaremont. However, I don’t think he’s purely reliant on a bunch sprint finish for victory. Degenkolb has been known to attack out of the bunch in tough races, and his form has looked sharper than ever this spring. With every race, Degenkolb seems to grow more confident in his ability to handle the difficult days. Unfortunately for him, his opponents will do everything in their power to avoid a situation in which they may be forced to face him in a sprint, meaning that Degenkolb will be fighting for his life on Sunday. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare was 2nd at G-W, and he’ll be hoping he can keep pace this Sunday as well. He is a tough competitor. Among the toughest fastmen on the road will be Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff, who finished 4th in 2013. These climbs could be a bit beyond his skillset, but the long day in the saddle and the relatively flat closing kilometers play in the favor of the of Milano-Sanremo winner. Teammate Luca Paolini has looked great in support of Kristoff so far this year, and he may look for opportunities to get up the road in Flanders.

IAM Cycling sends a pair of former Ronde runners-up in Sylvain Chavanel, who will look to strike from afar, and Heinrich Haussler, who will hope to outpace opponents at the line. Lampre’s Filippo Pozzato was runner-up just two years ago, and he has been in the Top 10 two more times in the past. He has not shown much this year but his 2013 GP Ouest France victory came as a surprise after a while off his best form, and this is a race he has a history in. Teammate Sacha Modolo will struggle mightily to hang on when attacks are launching left and right, but should it come to a mass gallop, he has been flying in the sprints this year.

The list of outsiders with a chance at victory from a small group or long attack also includes Daryl Impey and Jens Keukeleire of Orica-GreenEdge, Garmin’s Sebastian Langeveld and Johan Vansummeren, and Wanty – Groupe Gobert’s Bjorn Leukemans (4th in 2010).

Movistar’s JJ Lobato and Francisco Ventoso, Garmin’s Tyler Farrar, Astana’s Borut Bozic and Francesco Gavazzi, MTN Qhubeka’s Gerald Ciolek, Tinkoff-Saxo’s dangerous duo of Matti Breschel and Daniele Bennati, Topsport Vlaanderen’s on-form up-and-comer Tom Van Asbroeck, Wanty – Groupe Gobert’s Jean-Pierre Drucker, and NetApp’s Sam Bennett comprise a list of other outsiders looking for an opportunity to use their sprinting abilities should a larger group somehow remain intact at the finish.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Peter Sagan
Podium: Fabian Cancellara, Tom Boonen
Other Top Contenders: Zdenek Stybar, Sep Vanmarcke, Geraint Thomas, Jurgen Roelandts, John Degenkolb, Greg van Avermaet, Niki Terpstra

Follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race! And come back soon to check out previews of the Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco and next week’s Paris-Roubaix, as well as post-race analysis of what promises to be a thrilling Tour of Flanders.

-Dane Cash

Photos by visitflanders.

April 4, 2014
E3 Harelbeke, Gent-Wevelgem, and Volta a Catalunya Post-race Impressions: Wrapping up the Weekend

Tuning Up at the Highest Level

The last week of March was positively full of WorldTour racing, and each day offered insights into who is on form and who is not in early 2014. Because of the major implications of the one-day races for the upcoming Monuments, and the golden opportunity to view the form of the top GC riders on the planet during their heavyweight bout in the mountains of Catalunya, I decided the races were worth a few minutes spent cataloging some post-race impressions.

Takeaways from E3 Harelbeke and Gent-Wevelgem

Peter Sagan picked up the second major spring classic victory of his career last Friday at E3 Harelbeke, sticking a late attack with Geraint Thomas, Niki Terpstra, and Stijn Vandenbergh and rather easily outsprinting the rest of the escapees to the line. Sep Vanmarcke and Tony Gallopin jumped from the chasing pack for the next placings and then Borut Bozic led the bunch over the line, with Tyler Farrar, Fabian Cancellara (who put in a valiant effort trying to track down the escapees despite being delayed by a crash), Greg van Avermaet and a banged up Tom Boonen following, among others. Two days later in Gent-Wevelgem, the peloton ate up attacks one by one to force a bunch sprint, but not without danger along the way. Crashes wreaked havoc on the peloton all day, downing the likes of Ian Stannard (who fractured a vertebra), Andre Greipel (who broke a collarbone), and Tyler Farrar and slowing Cancellara. Enough stayed upright for a bunch finish. MSR winner Alexander Kristoff jumped first, but Sagan, John Degenkolb, and Arnaud Demare charged past as he faded. Degenkolb took the win with Demare 2nd and Sagan 3rd. Sep Vanmarcke was an impressive 4th. Boonen (despite an injured thumb) pulled in 5th.

Sagan’s strength in the successful E3 move shows that he’s on a very high level in the area of his game he’ll need most in the upcoming Tour of Flanders. Meanwhile, he couldn’t match high octane Degenkolb and Demare in the sprint. I’m beginning to think he has made a conscious decision to angle towards improving his climbing and endurance possibly at the expense of pure sprinting this year; Flanders will be a good indicator of things.

Fellow E3 top finisher Geraint Thomas looked very sharp, certainly back on the level after a messy crash in Paris-Nice. With Stannard out for the foreseeable future, Thomas’s showing is important for Sky’s classics campaign. The climbs and distance of Flanders will be a good opportunity for him to show off his skillset.

Gent-Wevelgem brought John Degenkolb the spring classic he’d been seeking. He burst onto the scene with a dominating Vuelta performance in 2012 and has built on that promise. I look forward to the next stage race that he and Sagan attend together. Arnaud Demare was very close behind him at the line. He will be disappointed at coming so close, but it was a good showing that bodes well for the future.

Despite a lack of success during the weekend, Cancellara showed continued power in his efforts at the front of the peloton in both races. E3 and Gent-Wevelgem are big events but Cancellara has his eyes on the Monumental prizes, and he looks sharp. Rival Tom Boonen took a backseat to Niki Terpstra in Harelbeke but he was quite quick in the Gent-Wevelgem finish. Like Cancellara, he looks ready for Flanders and Paris. Terpstra was doomed to 2nd when the E3 break was unable to drop Sagan, but he did look quite strong. Zdenek Stybar was active during the weekend and will relish the more difficult contests to come.

Sep Vanmarcke was one of the strongest riders in both races. He managed a 5th place in E3 despite running into mechanical issues on the day, and surprised many (including me) with his sprint to 4th on Sunday. It was nice to see him giving the races his all even when victory seemed out of the picture. He has been everywhere in the early season classics, and I think he’s likely to mix it up with Cancellara, Boonen, and Sagan in the next two weeks.

Andre Greipel missed out on a golden opportunity to pick up a big classics victory, and now he’ll miss time for injury to boot. It’s a shame for the German sprinter, who is a true gentleman of the sport, and who obviously has the talent to succeed in one-day races as well as in the Grand Tour sprints he’s known for.

Other takeaways from the E3 Harelbeke/Gent-Wevelgem weekend: Topsport Vlaanderen’s Tom Van Asbroeck looks primed for a bright future, getting into the Top 10 mix in G-W after already notching some semi-classic success in 2014. Jurgen Roelandts sniped the final Top 10 spot in G-W despite a last minute designation as team leader after Greipel went down. He has looked very strong across the first few weeks of classics season, and now that he won’t be on teammate duty, he could pose a threat in the race he took 3rd in last year, Flanders. Alternativley, Lotto could look to success from Tony Gallopin, who looked sharp on the climbs in Paris-Nice and who was strong at the E3 finish.

Takeaways from the Volta a Catalunya

The heavyweight GC competition may have been the big story in Spain, but first, a quick word on the stagehunters. While John Degenkolb was prepping for his days on the cobbles, teammate Luka Mezgec was absolutely cleaning up the sprints in Catalunya, earning a hat trick of victories against the likes of Leigh Howard and Roberto Ferrari. He’s a versatile rider who can hang on over the climbs (kind of like Degenkolb) and he packs a heck of a punch… He also shares youth with Giant’s other star sprinters: Mezgec, like Degenkolb and Marcel Kittel, is only 25! OPQS youth Julian Alaphillipe (just 21!), a cyclocross transfer, looked strong as well in Catalunya with three top 5 stage finishes.

Now to the GC contenders. Joaquim Rodriguez won the mountainous 3^rdstage, taking the race lead, which he successfully defended through to the final podium. Alberto Contador was 2^nd on the day, and he defended that position through to the final podium as well. Tejay van Garderen, 4^th on stage 3, improved his position by winning a cold, dreary, foggy stage 4, and he hold on for 3^rdoverall. Romain Bardet was just behind, both on the stage and in the GC. Nairo Quintana and Chris Froome were strong throughout the race, but could not match their rivals at the top, settling for 5th and 6th, respectively.

There was plenty of insight to be gleaned from the climbers’ battle, but there are also some caveats. Starting with the insight: Purito quickly proved that his time away from racing was not spent on the couch. He was simply too strong on his way up La Molina, and if there were any concerns about his 2014 form heading into the month of the Ardennes classics, I’d say he dispelled them. Contador was among the top climbers on both decisive stages, and active on other days as well. Having just put in a Herculean effort in Tirreno-Adriatico, he still managed to challenge for the overall victory here, and if his performance in Italy did not say it emphatically enough, he is most definitely back. Meanwhile, Froome and Quintana, while among the best riders in the race, were not on the level of Purito and Contador. However, I think it is dangerous to draw too many conclusions from their performances. As was noted in the original preview, Quintana was still taking anti-biotics to stave of illness at the start of the race, and Froome was coming off of back pain that sidelined him for Tirreno-Adriatico and subsequent training. Given the circumstances, Quintana and Froome looked fine in Catalunya and I don’t think either is concerned.

To my mind, Tejay van Garderen made the biggest statement of the race. Despite lurking at the top levels of the sport in the past two years, Tejay had yet to take a WorldTour victory before last week. He remedied that with a beautiful uphill charge through the mist on a stage 4 whose conditions were so bad that the only TV coverage came in the final ten minutes of the race. After last year’s disappointing Tour de France, Tejay looks to be better than ever, and winning a stage with a quick upward burst is even more impressive, as van Garderen is not really known for explosiveness. To stand on the podium in a race without a time trial against such high level competition bodes extremely well for van Garderen. AG2R’s Romain Bardet, who narrowly missed the stage 4 victory behind van Garderen, was vindicated after a series of misfortunes kept him from contending in Paris-Nice with his 4^th overall here, on the same time as Nairo Quintana.

Garmin will be pleased with Andrew Talansky’s 7th place, just behind Froome himself. The American was still rounding into form at Tirreno-Adriatico, and it looks like he is progressing nicely ahead of his first big target of the season, the Tour de Romandie. Meanwhile, teammates Dan Martin and Ryder Hesjedal both look to coming along as well (Martin is targeting the Ardennes and the Giro), from the same position of uncertainty.

Warren Barguil was another statement-maker. Two Vuelta wins last year put the young French Giant-Shimano rider on the map, but as both came in breakaways, he had yet to mix it up with the big GC riders. Barguil crossed the line in the stage 4 finish behind Chris Froome, and ended the race 9th overall. According to ProCyclingStats, he’s set to start the Ardennes classics for GSH, and with Tom Dumoulin (winner of the Criterium International ITT) he makes a dangerous duo with the potential for serious long range strikes.

The stars of E3 and Gent-Wevelgem take on the biggest prizes of the classics season in the next two weeks, starting in Flanders on Sunday. Meanwhile, many of the top names from Catalunya will head across Spain to start in the Tour of the Basque country, with Amstel, La Fleche Wallonne, and Liege to follow.

The Tour of Flanders and Tour of the Basque country are the next previews on the docket. As usual, I’ll also be tweeting plenty of analysis of the action; be sure to follow the new @VeloHuman on Twitter!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Mossos.

March 31, 2014
E3 Harelbeke 2014 Preview

WorldTouring on The Cobbles

On Friday, the WorldTour finally arrives on the cobbles. Omloop Het Nieuewblad and Dwars door Vlanderen paved the way for the top level contests, which start this weekend with E3 Harelbeke and continue through Sunday with Gent-Wevelgem (which will, of course, be previewed here as well!). Friday’s E3 is a 211 kilometer race through West Flanders offers a classic Flemish profile of ups and downs and cobbled stretches guaranteed to host constant attacks and counter-attacks. The parcours is very well-balanced — with fifeen or so sharp inclines rising to meet the peloton and cobbles and crosswinds to boot, E3 wears down pretenders and provides several potential launching pads for solo moves, but ultimately, the road from start to finish is not so difficult as to guarantee victory for a small group or single rider. Sprint finishes are more than possible here. In 2012, Tom Boonen launched a series of late attacks, none of which stuck, only take victory at the head of a bunch sprint anyway. On the other hand, in 2013, Fabian Cancellara attacked a full 35 kilometers away from the finish on the Oude Kwaremont climb, zooming up the cobbles and staying away from the chasers the whole way home. The multitude of potential scenarios makes E3 a tough race to call, but there are a number of riders with the potential to win this race a few different ways.

Before I get to the predictions: don’t forget to follow the new @VeloHuman on Twitter for more live analysis of the biggest races on the calendar!

The Riders to Watch

First on the list of favorites is the aforementioned Fabian Cancellara. Trek’s star has won this race three times, each due to his superior ability to attack from the peloton. He does not seem to have lost any of his trademark power in 2014, proving his form with a 2nd place in the brutal Milano-Sanremo (as well as a short ITT also good for 2nd place at Tirreno-Adriatico). His sprint also looks sharp as ever, as he managed those runner-up honors in Sanremo by outgunning some of the fastest men in the sport to the finish line in a hectic bunch gallop. If he can whittle down the lead group, he’ll be able to hold his own in a group finish. Cancellara is a veteran and a masterful racer with a killer instinct, and he has proven his high level form leading into a race he knows how to win, making him the favorite among favorites. Having Stijn Devolder along for company will help as well—the two-time Monument winner is an able lieutenant and a legitimate second.

2nd in last year’s running was Cannondale’s Peter Sagan, who beat out Daniel Oss and Geraint Thomas that year in a sprint for 2nd among the attackers who couldn’t hang with Spartacus. Though probably faster in a sprint than Cancellara and more able to handle serious climbs, Sagan has not shown the same level of solo power output that Cancellara can muster. Still, he gets better every year, not just physically but also as a race tactician. Milano-Sanremo wore him down to the point of being unable to contest in the final sprint but E3 is more than 80 kilometers shorter, and it’s unlikely that the weather conditions will come close to being as miserable as they were in Italy. Should Sagan manage to hang with Cancellara or whoever is the last man up the road (he’ll have the talented Oscar Gatto to help with that), he’ll have more left in the tank when it comes to the final race to the line than he did in MSR. He has not blown the doors off of any races this year, but his form has looked good, and I think he’s going to be reaching his peak soon. What’s more, he’s likely to get help tracking Cancellara from a few other riders.

Chief among them is the third of the big three favorites to contend in this race, Tom Boonen. The OPQS rider has won E3 a record four times, and he’s done it both in solo moves and as the first among a group of sprinters to make the finish line. However, though Boonen and Cancellara have dominated the spring classics for the better part of a decade, it has been some time since the Belgian was at his best and able to contend with his Swiss rival. Strong performances early this season have shown that he is back on track after injury derailed his 2013. At Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne, Boonen beat the strong Belkin duo of Sep Vanmarcke and Moreno Hofland to the line. He was very active in this week’s Dwars Ddoor Vlaanderen as well. To win here, he knows he’ll have to play a delicate game, working with potentially faster sprinters like Sagan to keep Cancellara in check only to try to drop them as the finish nears. Fortunately for him, Niki Terpstra (winner of DDV) and Zdenek Stybar don the same uniform. Stybar makes for a fine wild card in this race, showing a great sprint right now and a surprising knack for getting over steep climbs. His ability to solo away on the tough ascents will put pressure on Boonen’s opponents, but don’t count out Stybar going for it all himself; OPQS really believes that the future is now for the cyclocross star, and won’t hesitate to let him take chances if he feels good.

Challenging these top favorites and their teammates are a number of brave sprinters and more traditional aggressive classics-style riders alike. John Degenkolb, who hit some serious bad luck with a puncture in the final kilometers of Milano-Sanremo after being tipped as a hot favorite in that race, will be out for revenge via a sprint finish. He was 6th in E3 in 2012, and while he may not be known as a cobbled classics specialist, he has the experience and the endurance for success here. Lampre’s Sacha Modolo (not much of a record on cobbles but obviously very fast and tough as well), Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati and Michael Morkov, BMC’s Thor Hushovd, Movistar’s Juan Jose Lobato, Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen and Bernie Eisel, MTN’s Gerald Ciolek, IAM’s Heinrich Haussler, and perhaps surprisingly, Garmin’s Tyler Farrar (winner of the DDV bunch sprint for 2nd place) could all contend in a sprint finish.

Several other riders will hope they can force selection to drop the faster finishers. Sep Vanmarcke looked very strong in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne, and he’ll hope to turn high placings in those races into a bona fide win here. He was 5th in the 2012 bunch sprint E3 that Boonen won, and in last year’s Paris-Roubaix, he showed the remarkable ability to stay with Fabian Cancellara on the big stage. The 25-year-old Belgian will look for opportunities to strike at this year’s E3. Lampre’s Filippo Pozzato won this race back in 2009, kicking past Tom Boonen in the small lead group for the victory. He showed resurgent form late last year, and he will be a danger man when small groups start to form late in the game. Ian Stannard‘s Omloop Het Nieuwsblad victory shows that he is in top shape right now, and his endurance will suit him well in a race likely to feature countless attacks to blow things up at the front. Teammate Geraint Thomas looked great prior to a crash in Paris-Nice, and if he has recovered, he is another strong option to survive the road, the conditions, and the attacks. BMC’s Taylor Phinney, Daniel Oss, and Greg van Avermaet, Astana’s Borut Bozic (3rd in Dwars door Vlaanderen) and Francesco Gavazzi, Garmin’s Sebastian Langeveld, Nick Nuyens and Johan Vansummeren, Lotto’s Jurgen Roelandts (2nd here in 2011) and Tony Gallopin, IAM’s Sylvain Chavanel (6th last year, and improving on his early season form recently), Orica’s typically versatile cast of Daryl Impey, Luke Durbridge and Jens Keukeleire, and Katusha’s Luca Paolini (8th last year and still going strong at 37). Watch out on the Kapelberg, Paterberg, Oude Kwaremont, Kanemelkbeekstrat (aren’t these names fun?), and Tiegemberg.
Update: Alejandro Valverde is now confirmed as starting. Hard to see him outclassing the cobbled experts, but you never know!

The winner of this race not only nabs the day’s glory, the race’s prize money and WorldTour points, and a place in the cycling history books, but also a likely nomination as a favorite heading into the cobbled races to follow. Much is at stake in this Friday’s E3 Harelbeke. Couple the stakes with an always interesting profile and some top classics riders in top form, and I think we’re in for a show.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Fabian Cancellara
Podium: Peter Sagan, Tom Boonen
Other Top Contenders: Sep Vanmarcke, Zdenek Stybar, Greg Van Avermaet, Ian Stannard, Filippo Pozzato, Edvald Boasson Hagen, John Degenkolb

Follow the new @VeloHuman on Twitter for plenty of live analysis during this weekend’s classic duo, and check back soon for the preview of the second half of said duo, Gent-Wevelgem!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Vincent Oord.

March 26, 2014
Milano-Sanremo 2014 Post-race Impressions: Kristoff Delivers

Takeaways from La Classicissima di Primavera 2014

Milano-Sanremo 2014 is in the books! The VeloHuman race preview noted that whoever won this race would truly have to earn his glory, and after 300 rain-soaked kilometers, I’d say he did. The biggest takeaway from this race is obviously that Alexander Kristoff is capable of pulling off the big win. If you’ve watched many bike races in the last year, you probably already knew that the Katusha sprinter is the real deal. If you read this particular site, you’re definitely aware: in the end-of-2013 thoughts published in November, VH said, “Speaking of quick hardmen, Alexander Kristoff gets a paragraph of his own: he built on a strong 2012 (in which he took an Olympic Bronze Medal) with top 10s in three Monument Classics and his first WorldTour level win in the Tour de Suisse (besting Peter Sagan on a tough day that ended in a sprint). He has established himself as a serious contender for hardman sprinter’s races going forward.” I’d say he’s made good on that promise. The number of major news outlets calling him a total surprise was a bit shocking to me. He was among the top 15 or so with the bookmakers, he was one of my Top 10 for this race, and every other preview site I read named his name, so he didn’t exactly come from nowhere. Still, that big win was something that seemed to constantly elude him. His Tour de Suisse stage win last year was his very first WorldTour win. With Sunday’s performance, we can be a bit more confident that Kristoff really does have that killer instinct required to pull of the victory (it wasn’t close at the line). He’s got to be viewed as a favorite in sprint finishes over the next few weeks of classics-riding. Luca Paolini also deserves some serious praise for the job he did keeping the pace high and guiding Kristoff over the obstacles on the way to the finish in Sanremo. Katusha, known for their climbers, has done a commendable job prepping for the spring classics, and I think we can look forward to more from them in the near future.

The other big takeaway, or at least, the second biggest news item, is that Peter Sagan didn’t win. Not only did he not win, he wasn’t even in the top 5, rolling in 10th. Granted, he sort of gave up at the very end of the sprint after it was clear that he was a bit too far behind and boxed in as well, but no matter how you slice it, he didn’t look like he had it in him to make the podium. It’s a disappointment for him, but I am not going to read too much into it just yet. While Sagan was the favorite for the race, he was by no means a lock. The removal of the big climbs at the end put a dent in his chances at dropping other sprinters, and the length of the race was a bit longer than the sorts of contests Sagan has proven he can win. His form may also be a tad below what it was in last year’s race. All this to say: while I think it will be a blow to morale for Sagan to come away from the race without a win or even a podium spot, I will still have him among the favorites at E3, Gent-Wevelgem, and the Tour of Flanders (which may be his true goal this season), races that may provide more launching pads for victory, and fewer miles to wear him down.

Speaking of all those races that Fabian Cancellara will be another favorite in: Spartacus nabbed a surprising second place at MSR by being the second best sprinter after 300 kilometers. Despite the presence of riders who tend to be faster to the line, Cancellara’s otherworldly endurance left him enough in the tank to land himself in the runner-up position. He seemed pretty frustrated after the race, but I’m not really sure there could have been a better outcome. I was quite impressed that he even managed a 2nd place: with no Pompeiana climb, it was always going to be very hard for Cancellara to get away. I’d say his outlook is pretty good for the next few weeks.

Ben Swift was something of a revelation in this race, nabbing 3rd. He’s had some high-level road wins in his young career, but injury has gotten in the way of his pursuit of victory in the past. In a race that one might have expected Team Sky to be riding for Edvald Boasson Hagen, Swift shone as the best rider in black and blue on the day, and he delivered for Sky with a podium-level sprint at the end of a very long day at the office. At the moment he seems scheduled to ride Pais Vasco, which may offer a few opportunities for him to put his versatile skillset on display. Boasson Hagen, meanwhile, seems to struggle in this race, so I am not sure what to make of his fading on Sunday in terms of judging his form leading into the cobbled classics.

John Degenkolb will be left wondering what might have been, after a late puncture ruined his shot at glory. Fortunately, we will get to see him again soon on the cobbles. Mark Cavendish will be disappointed that he didn’t get the win despite being involved in the bunch sprint at the end, but as Kristoff pointed out after the race, a sprint after 300 km is quite different from one after 200. Andre Greipel stated he had both cramps and mechanical troubles at the end of the race. Gerald Ciolek got the rain and the bunch sprint he probably wanted, but couldn’t manage more than 9th (though, I’d rate that as a moderate success, as I didn’t even expect that). Juan Jose Lobato took up JJ Rojas’s mantle, nabbing 4th for Movistar. It’s a good result for him, and he’s off to a pretty good year with some strong finishes so far. Sacha Modolo was another of the VeloHuman Top 10, and he finished right around where I expected. Like anyone who came to that finish line after Kristoff, he’ll probably be disappointed, but a top 10 in MSR is a pretty good sign of ability going forward. Zdenek Stybar pulled a fine 7th place while also working for Cav, as he continues to make his case for inclusion among the favorites in the spring races for serious hardmen. With more climbing and more cobbles to come, he’s going to be mentioned up there with the Cancellaras, Sagans, and Boonens as a contender when the peloton takes on the big classics in Northern Europe.

Lastly, a chapeau to Vincenzo Nibali. I don’t think there was any way he could win this race, given the lack of significant inclines, but he tried and made the race exciting with a solo attack and divebomb descent. Hopefully, next year’s route will be known further in advance, giving the top riders time to decide on whether to attend based on what the road will actually look like, and whether it will really suit their strengths.

If you haven’t already, be sure to check out the VeloHuman Volta a Catalunya 2014 preview! The race got underway this morning, with Luka Mezgec winning a sprint to the line, and the next few stages look like they’ll be pretty action-packed. I will be live-tweeting analysis on Twitter @VeloHuman. And of course, VeloHuman’s E3 Harelbeke preview is coming soon, so be sure to check back in a few days for more!

-Dane Cash

Photo by brassynn.

March 24, 2014
Milano-Sanremo 2014 Preview

Getting Back to Basics in La Classicissima di Primavera 2014

2014’s Milano-Sanremo harkens back to a past age, in which La Primavera was a marquee goal for the tougher sprinters in the peloton. The race was supposed to finish with a climb of the Pompeiana, making it even more climber-oriented than it has been in recent years, but damaged roads forced a route change. The climb of Le Manie had already been taken out to make way for the new ascent up the Pompeiana, and it has not been returned to the route, meaning the sprinters suddenly have a chance to contend again. Still, there are some lumps to overcome, and it’s a 294 kilometer race, and as might be expected of the already grueling spring Monument, rain is in the forecast for Sunday; suffice it to say, there are enough variables to leave this race wide open for the taking.

VeloHuman will be live tweeting analysis of Sunday’s action, so be sure you’re following @VeloHuman on Twitter. And if you’re looking for straight predictions, as usual, my top 10 contenders are at the end of the post.

The Contenders

The flat-enough parcours is drawing some of the peloton’s fastest finishers to Milano-Sanremo, and with so little data to draw on in the early season, it’s hard to name a favorite for the race. The most obvious candidate is last year’s runner-up Peter Sagan. If a bunch sprint arrives, Sagan has shown an ability to hang with the best on a good day, especially after a few tough climbs. If an attack goes, Sagan will be sure to follow. In either eventuality, Sagan can nab a victory, and that’s what makes him the most likely winner here. Working against him is the simple fact that he is not the fastest sprinter in this race, and in the event of a mass gallop, he may be facing Andre Greipel and Mark Cavendish, with their elite leadouts. He’ll look to keep a brutal pace over the few climbs that remain in this race, the Poggio and Cipressa, in an effort to whittle down his opponents.

2008’s winner Fabian Cancellara will be sure to join in on the fight to drop the likes of Cavendish and Greipel, as he’d be even less likely than Sagan to win if they were to make it to the line. The 5.6 km, 4.1% average grade Cipressa and the 3.7 km, 3.7% average grade Poggio are not the most challenging summits on Earth, but after 250 kilometers, they’ll hurt a lot more than you might think. Cancellara, like Sagan, will look for a winning move, and a chance to divebomb a rainy descent on the way to the finish line.

For the first time in years, Cancellara and Sagan face the possbility of the high-powered sprinters making it to the finish. Milano-Sanremo is still the longest race on the calendar, and there are still some climbs to manage, and it’s going to be raining, so nothing will come easy to the sprint teams, but a battle royale among the gallopers is more than just a possibility. Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb has the form and the versatility to be in contention to the very end. Of the riders not named Sagan with the firepower to beat Cavendish and Greipel in a straight up sprint, he is probably the least likely to be dropped on the climbs, or whittled down by the pace to a point of overwhelming late fatigue. He’s had success in the classics in recent years and he looks good so far this year, with his Paris-Nice stage win and points jersey serving as ample evidence of form. Moreover, he’ll be able to take advantage of the well-marshalled GSH leadout that so often pulls Marcel Kittel to the line. Unfortunately for Degenkolb, some of Kittel’s main rivals might make it to the finish as well. In the event that no late attack stays away, all eyes will be on Omega Pharma-Quick Step’s Mark Cavendish and Lotto-Belisol’s Andre Greipel. Tom Boonen withdrew from the race after a family tragedy, but OPQS still has a typically elite squad to support Cavendish here with a world-class leadout, which includes former winner Alessandro Petacchi and Mark Renshaw (who, in the event that Mark Cavendish misses out on the bunch sprint for whatever reason, suddenly become contenders themselves). Meanwhile, Andre Greipel has a great chance to take his first big one-day win. He has shown improving ability to get over harder ascents in recent years and he showed blazing form early on in 2014. The past few weeks, he has quieted down somewhat, but Milano-Sanremo is sure to elicit a high octane effort from the German and his top-flight leadout squad.

In a potential bunch sprint finish, other names we could see matched up against these blue bloods include last year’s winner Gerald Ciolek of MTN-Qhubeka, Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff (who top 10ed in MSR, Flanders, AND Paris-Roubaix last year), Lampre’s Sacha Modolo (who is coming off of brilliant performances in a number of early season races), FDJ’s Arnaud Demare (who is focuing hard on the classics and can handle a climb or two), Movistar’s JJ Rojas, Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge (a rider who has shown Degenkolb-style versatility in his first few years in the peloton, and who looked quite capable of managing tougher hills in the recent Paris-Nice), and Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen (who was one of the strongest riders in March’s Omloop Het Niewsblad). Outsiders in a heads-up sprint, reduced or otherwise, include Europcar’s Bryan Coquard (a bit disappointing in Paris-Nice, but a candidate to surprise everyone with his elite top speed), BMC’s Thor Hushovd, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati and Michael Morkov, and Bardiani-CSF’s Filippo Fortin, Sonny Colbrelli, and Enrico Battaglin (hard to say who gets the nod among the young Italians), IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler (2nd in 2009) and up-and-coming Matteo Pelucchi, and AG2R’s Davide Appolonio.

A number of teams come to Milano-Sanremo packed with riders hoping to get separation and avoid a bunch sprint. Astana’s roster seems built purely for this goal. Vincenzo Nibali had hoped this year would give him a chance to nab a victory in the Italian monument, but without the big climbs, his bid for glory took a serious hit. Still, he’ll be sure to put pressure on the fast men and he’ll appreciate the bad weather making it harder to follow him on the descents. Enrico Gasparotto, Borut Bozic, Francesco Gavazzi, and Maxim Iglinskiy are all legitimate options for a win from a small group of escapees. BMC’s Philippe Gilbert is guaranteed to be looking for the same opportunities. Had the route planned for 2014 remained unchanged, Gilbert would be in a great position to nab an MSR win, but as it stands, he’ll have to up the aggression to drop the faster finishers. Greg van Avermaet and Taylor Phinney are also likely to fire off attacks to keep the tension high. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema, Garmin-Sharp’s very hot Tom-Jelte Slagter and wily Ramunas Navardauskas, IAM Cycling’s Sylvain Chavanel, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Roman Kreuziger, and Neri Sottoli’s Simone Ponzi are likely looking to double down on late attacks as well. Orica-GreenEdge’s Simon Gerrans is an interesting case; he’s a former winner of this race who looked very strong early in 2014, but, like Gilbert, he would probably have favored a tougher course. As it stands, he’s likely to attack, but OGE might suspect that Michael Matthews presents a better opportunity to win the race. Lampre’s Diego Ulissi and Filippo Pozzato (a former winner), OPQS’s Jan Bakelants, Michal Kwiatkowski, and Zdenek Stybar, Movistar’s Fran Ventoso, Sky’s Geraint Thomas, Katusha’s Luca Paolini, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot (hot off of Paris-Nice) and Lotto-Belisol’s Tony Gallopin may look for similar opportunities to get involved in late attacks, even if their teams may see their bunch sprinters as the first option.

The late climbs are likely to bring out some of these opportunists, but they will have to work very hard to leave the fast men in the dust (or mud, as it were, given the likelihood of rain). Whoever wins this race, after 294 kilometers of riding, he will have truly earned the Monumental honor.

VeloHuman Favorites

Winner: Peter Sagan

Podium: John Degenkolb, Andre Greipel

Top 10: Mark Cavendish, Alexander Kristoff, Fabian Cancellara, Arnaud Demare, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Michael Matthews, Sacha Modolo

Don’t forget to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter, and check back soon for the Volta a Catalunya preview!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Marianne de Wit.

March 21, 2014