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Tour de France 2015 Preview

The 2015 Tour de France is about to get underway, with the peloton set for a Dutch Grand Départ in the Netherlands this weekend. A quick time trial and then a few days of Classics-style racing will give way to several days for the sprinters and more versatile stagehunters before a team time trial and then some very challenging mountain stages to really spark competition among the overall favorites. With a route built to encourage uphill battles and multiple riders looking to have legitimate chances of coming away with the overall win, this year’s edition of the sport’s biggest event is set to be an excellent showdown, and with all the action just around the corner, it’s time for VeloHuman’s overall Tour de France preview.

The Route

The Tour kicks off with a short, flat ITT in the Netherlands (in the university town of Utrecht, to be exact). Then comes another day on Dutch soil, a flat road stage, followed by a trip to Belgium’s challenging Mur de Huy on Stage 3. Stage 4 will stick with the Classics theme, challenging the peloton with several stretches of cobbles in between start and finish.

Stage 4: Seraing › Cambrai (223.5km) – Several stretches of cobbles could inject some nervousness into the Tour de France peloton early on in the race.

Things get a bit more traditional after that. Stages 5 through 8 look friendly for the fast finishers or those riders fortunate and skilled enough to stick long breakaways. Stage 9 is a medium-length team time trial that will open up a few time gaps on the General Classification, and it’s followed by three high mountain stages certain to see plenty more GC action.

Stage 11: Pau › Cauterets (188km) – A visit to the Tourmalet, during a day with five other categorized climbs on the menu as well, will make Stage 11 a tough Week 2 test.

The bumpy profiles of Stages 13 through 16 will keep the GC riders on their toes and, at least in terms of stage honors, will likely favor the more well-rounded fast finishers and aggressive types. Then come the serious mountain tests likely to decide the Tour de France: a very difficult Stage 17, a tough Stage 18, and an extremely challenging one-two punch of mountaintop finishes on Stages 19 and 20.

Stage 20: Modane Valfréjus › Alpe d’Huez (110.5km) – The Tour’s short but vicious penultimate stage should provide a thrilling conclusion to the GC battle on the slopes of the Alpe d’Huez.

The Alpe d’Huez finale of Stage 20 will make for a great final GC battleground in the 2015 Tour de France, especially at the end of a day packed with climbing. The race will conclude in its usual style with a sprinter-friendly Stage 21 in Paris.

All told, it’s a climber-friendly route, with far fewer total kilometers of individual time trialing than recent years have seen. Versatility will still be important, however, as cobblestones, Low Country weather, plenty of short steep climbs, and technical descents will challenge the yellow jersey hopefuls to survive and thrive on more than just the long Alpine uphill slogs.

The General Classification Contenders

This year’s GC battle is all about cycling’s “Big Four” GC riders: Chris Froome, Alberto Contador, Vincenzo Nibali, and Nairo Quintana. Only Quintana is without at least one Tour de France victory on his record, but his runner-up performance in 2013 and his Giro win in 2014 shine brightly all the same. With all four seemingly on form and healthy, it should be quite a showdown. Each rider has factors weighing for and against favorite status.

At least in VeloHuman’s perspective, Chris Froome, recently victorious in the Critérium du Dauphiné, looks to be the slight favorite. The last time he stayed healthy throughout the Tour de France, he dominated the field. His 2015 campaign has not been as steady as that incredible 2013, but he looked very strong last month in the Dauphiné, and he has an unbelievable supporting cast with the likes of Richie Porte, Leopold König, Wout Poels, and Nicolas Roche, among others. Sky can put the pressure on early with so many weapons, and Froome’s machine-like endurance should keep his legs powering along late in the race. For Froome, a parcours light on time trials might seem like a less ideal scenario, but the 30-year-old stage racer has actually been underwhelming against the clock lately, meanwhile putting in some very strong climbing rides so far this year. To win, however, he’ll need to overcome the fierce competition of his rivals, whom he has not been able to put away as easily in recent months as he did back when he last won the Tour.

Alberto Contador certainly has the talent at peak ability to take on Froome in this race, as his terrific 2014 Vuelta victory suggested. But his Giro participation, excellent though his winning performance was, will almost certainly have taken something out of him. The Giro-Tour double is an extremely hard feat to accomplish. Contador may have a better chance of pulling it off than anyone in the sport, but that still might not be enough. A TT-light route won’t help him—he’s certainly better against the clock than Quintana and Nibali, but that won’t be of use here. Instead, he’ll need to rely on his ability to get up the vicious climbs in the final week to win this race, and that might be a lot to ask after a prior GT win already on the season. In any case, strong supporters like Rafal Majka and Roman Kreuziger will be valuable to Contador’s attempt to beat the odds and the other favorites.

Nairo Quintana should be coming in fresh, and this is the perfect route for him. He’s not a great time trialist, but that won’t hold him back with less than 15km against the clock solo—what’s more, Movistar typically fields a strong TTT squad, making the TTT a place where the young Colombian might actually be able to pick up time on his rivals. After that he’ll have plenty of opportunities to put his terrific climbing skills on display. The last time Quintana and Froome went up against each other in a full Grand Tour, Froome emerged victorious, but Quintana has gotten older and stronger since then, and should be a very strong contender for the overall. Alejandro Valverde offers Movistar a powerful card to play as well—and don’t be surprised if he has his own GC ambitions in this race too.

Despite winning last year’s Tour de France, Vincenzo Nibali will face an uphill battle for a repeat victory. His Tour win was impressive, for sure, but with neither Froome nor Contador surviving into the final week (and Quintana opting to race elsewhere that year), it’s hard to judge Nibali against the gold standard of his top rivals. He was far stronger than everyone else still in the race by the final mountain stages of the 2014 Tour, but that wasn’t really all that unexpected. Still, this is a good route for him, and he has a very complete team around him (which includes stalwart lieutenant Jakob Fuglsang) to help him pursue his second Tour win.

Outside of that quartet of top favorites, it’s hard to see anyone else really challenging for the overall win, but there are a few strong outsiders. Fresh off his Dauphiné win, Tejay van Garderen looks better than ever on the climbs, and he’ll have BMC’s worlds-winning TTT squad to put him into a good position early on in the race. Thibaut Pinot won high mountain stages in both the Tour de Romandie and the Tour de Suisse, and the lack of ITT mileage favors his skillset. Rui Costa has had a strong year, and has been an elite one-week racer for some time, despite never really putting it together across three weeks to land a big Grand Tour result—this could be his year to finally string together several good days. Joaquim Rodríguez has run a bit hot and cold in 2015, but he was untouchable in País Vasco; this parcours suits his abilities quite well and that could help him battle it out for a big result. Bauke Mollema should also like the overall route (and the Dutch start), and he has shown flashes of impressive form this year.

AG2R’s one-two punch of Jean-Christophe Peraud and Romain Bardet, and Cannondale-Garmin’s one-two-three punch of Andrew Talansky, Ryder Hesjedal, and Dan Martin could make things interesting. The EQS duo of Michal Kwiatkowski and Rigoberto Urán, IAM’s Mathias Frank, Europcar’s Pierre Rolland, LottoNL’s Wilco Kelderman, and Giant-Alpecin’s Warren Barguil are among those who will hope to battle for big results from the fringes of the GC conversation.

The Stagehunters

With Marcel Kittel out of the Tour de France this year, Mark Cavendish looks to be the class of the field in the pure speed department in this race, but there are plenty of strong riders behind him who will hope to nab stage wins as well, especially on some of the bumpier stages where Cav might struggle. André Greipel, at his best, should be able to mix it up with Cavendish on the pure flats. The likes of Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb, Nacer Bouhanni, Arnaud Demaré, Michael Matthews, and, of course, Peter Sagan, will also try to be in the conversation, with the tougher days potentially providing opportunities for some of them to battle it out without Cavendish in the conversation. John Degenkolb, in particular, could surprise—as versatile as he is, he’s also just plain fast in a sprint. With Giant-Alpecin’s full support thanks to the absence of Marcel Kittel, Degenkolb could rack up the results and maybe even a strong green jersey bid. Sam Bennett, Bryan Coquard, and MTN-Qhubeka’s speedy pair of Tyler Farrar and an in-form Edvald Boasson Hagen are others to watch in the sprints.

A generous helping of intermediate stages will likely see the peloton’s punchy climbers and long-range specialists hunting for multiple stage victories. Watch out for the likes of OGE’s Simon Gerrans and Michael Albasini, BMC’s Philippe Gilbert and Greg Van Avermaet, Trek’s Julian Arredondo, and Lotto-Soudal’s Tony Gallopin (among many others) to keep things interesting on the bumpier days. Lastly, a note about the very strong field of TT specialists in attendance: there may be only one (short) ITT in the Tour, but a chance to wear yellow is on the line and the impressive time trialing quartet of Tony Martin, Fabian Cancellara, Tom Dumoulin, and Adriano Malori should be in the mix with a few of the aforementioned GC contenders for the honor of a stint in the yellow jersey early on in the year.

VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Race Favorites

GC Winner: Chris Froome
Podium: Nairo Quintana, Alberto Contador
Other Top Contenders: Vincenzo Nibali, Tejay van Garderen, Thibaut Pinot, Joaquim Rodríguez, Rui Costa, Romain Bardet, Alejandro Valverde

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for plenty more analysis, and check back soon for the preview of the first stage of the race—VeloHuman will be previewing every individual stage of the 2015 Tour. The preview of Stage 1 is already online! Also, don’t miss the Recon Ride’s three Tour de France podcasts. The first episode is available here!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Epping Forest District Council (CC).

July 2, 2015
Tour de Suisse 2015 Preview

As the Dauphiné nears its conclusion, a sizeable contingent of cycling’s top stars who aren’t racing in France have made a trip to Switzerland. Nine days in total with flats, hills, mountains, a short ITT, and a long one, the 2015 edition of the Tour de Suisse has something for everyone.

The Route

The race opens with a 5.1km ITT that will serve to put a rider into an early leader’s jersey, but will likely not have that much of an effect on the General Classification as it is so short (and flat). The day that follows is more challenging than you might expect for such an early stage in a nine-day race: Stage 2 closes out with plenty of up and down. The riders will take on the Cat. 1 Michaelskreuz climb, zoom back down the other side, circle back to the foot of the climb to do it one more time, and then zoom down to the finish line.

Stages 3 and 4 have a few bumps (including the extremely challenging Gotthardpass at the beginning of Stage 3) but less challenging finishes will likely make these days more for the stagehunters than the GC favorites.

Stage 5 will be the most difficult mountain test for the overall contenders. It’s a long day of racing, 237.3 kilometers, punctuated by two HC-rated climbs, one near the midpoint of the stage, the other making for the stage finale.

Stage 5: Unterterzen › Sölden (237.3km) – The fifth stage of the Tour de Suisse will give the pure climbers every opportunity to build an advantage before the long time trial at the end of the race.

This is not a stage for the faint of heart, and not one likely to be forgiving to anyone at a loss for form.

Hilly but not overly challenging Stages 6 and 7 look like they will favor the sprinters or puncheurs. Stage 8 will put the riders to the test with a very bumpy profile that, despite a lack of any truly vicious climbs, should offer opportunities for aggressors to try to stir up the pot.

The Tour de Suisse finishes with a 38.4km time trial in Bern. The profile of Stage 9’s ITT features an irregular climb and similarly uneven descent right in the middle of the route, but it’s not a hill climb time trial by any means, and should favor the big engines in the peloton.

The General Classification Contenders

Rui Costa has won this race three years running, but he won’t be taking the victory this year, having eschewed the Swiss race for the Dauphiné. In his absence, this is a wide open race, one of the most open stage races of the year. There are plenty of big talents on the startlist but none stand out as five-star favorites.

Sky will bring a strong contingent of starters to Switzerland, among them, Geraint Thomas and Sergio Henao. Thomas has had a great year so far and the time trial-heavy route suits him well, though the very steep climb that closes out Stage 5 will challenge him. Henao is a balanced stage racer who can climb at a very high level and time trial surprisingly well too. Personally I see Henao as better suited to this race but recent talk about the Sky plan for this race would suggest that they aren’t coming to the Suisse with Henao as their sole leader, and that does raise a few questions about his chances. Whoever leads Sky will want every ounce of support possible in what is likely to be a close race.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot is probably the best climber on the startlist, and he’s had a strong year so far. He’s already won a tough mountain stage in Switzerland this year, taking the fifth stage of the Tour de Romandie, and he’ll be among the top favorites to win Stage 5 of this race—the long time trial is the question for Pinot. He showed flashes of improved TT ability last year though, and if he can replicate that here, in advance of his season’s main goal, the Tour de France, he’ll be hard to beat.

Jakob Fuglsang is consistently among the best riders in the one-week stage races he takes on, but usually he has to ride in support of Vincenzo Nibali. Without Nibali here, Fuglsang should be up there fighting for the win himself. This balanced race will require the sort of Grand Tour versatility that Fuglsang has in spades, and he has the always powerful Astana team to back him up too.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka is in a very similar situation. He’ll be at the Tour as a lieutenant for Alberto Contador, but in the Tour de Suisse he has an opportunity to race all for himself. His elite climbing skills will come in handy on Stage 5, though he’d probably prefer more real mountain stages in this race; still he’s a good time trialist with a chance at the overall victory if he can ride well against the clock.

Michal Kwiatkowski will love the first and last stage of this race, where he’ll be among the favorites for TT victories. For him, the big challenge of pulling of a Tour de Suisse GC result will be the very steep finishing climb of Stage 5. The sort of ascent doesn’t suit him particularly well. He’ll need all the help he can get from his team, and he’ll need to put in top-notch TT performances to have a shot at the overall in this race.

Simon Spilak has done very well in Switzerland in the past, with a Top 10 here and a GC win (and three stage wins) in Romandie. He’s an elite one-week racer who can climb and TT with the best. He tends to falter in the Grand Tours, however, and he’ll need to come prepared to race for the full nine days if he wants a shot at victory. If he can put it all together, and I think he will, he should be in the mix. Katusha has Daniel Moreno as a strong alternative.

Jurgen Van Den Broeck should still have some form in the tank after the Giro d’Italia, and he looked great in Romandie earlier this season. The very long nature of the race should suit the Grand Tour veteran. Tom Dumoulin put in a good ride last year, and he is always improving as a climber—if he can limit his losses on Stage 5 he’ll have a shot at the GC title. His Giant-Alpecin teammate Warren Barguil will look to do the opposite: shine in the mountains and limit his losses against the clock. Robert Gesink should be in the mix after a decent ride to California. He looks to be working his way back into good form. Domenico Pozzovivo, Ion Izagirre, Bob Jungels, Julian Arredondo, Esteban Chaves, and the Cannondale-Garmin duo of Joe Dombrowski and Tom Danielson are others with a chance in the General Classification at the Tour de Suisse.

The Stagehunters

The caliber of quick men making the trip to Switzerland is impressive. Mark Cavendish is the class of the pure sprinters in attendance, and should be tops in terms of pure speed on the startlist. There are several bumpier days that could see the more versatile types in control, however, and that’s where four-time Tour de Suisse Points Classification winner Peter Sagan will come in. He’s a machine in this race, and he’ll have plenty of opportunities to add to his impressive career win total here (he has nine victories so far in the TdS). In fact, watch out for him from the very start of the race—the short ITT opener is a perfect opportunity for him.

Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb, Arnaud Demaré, Michael Matthews, and JJ Rojas are just a few of the other top-notch quick men with a bit of versatility in attendance. This race, which has no shortage of stagehunter-friendly intermediate days, should have no shortage of elite contenders for victories on those stages.

Philippe Gilbert, Greg Van Avermaet, Michael Albasini, Jan Bakelants, and Zdenek Stybar are among the many aggressive types who could thrive on the hillier stages.

The double helping of ITTs has drawn plenty of chrono talents as well: Adriano Malori and Fabian Cancellara should enjoy opportunities to face off against some of the aforementioned potential GC riders (Kwiatkowski and Dumoulin in particular) for time trial wins.

VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Favorites

GC Winner: Sergio Henao
Podium: Thibaut Pinot, Jakob Fuglsang
Other Top Contenders: Rafal Majka, Michal Kwiatkowski, Simon Spilak, Geraint Thomas, Ion Izagirre, Domenico Pozzovivo, Jurgen Van Den Broeck

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for commentary and analysis during the race, and check out the Recon Ride’s latest episode for more Tour de Suisse coverage!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Harald Schnitzler (CC).

June 12, 2015
Critérium du Dauphiné 2015 Preview

The Dauphiné marks the arrival of “Tour de France season,” drawing an always impressive startlist of top Tour talent hoping for a final tuneup before La Grande Boucle. The big names and mountainous parcours should make this year’s edition of the race a worthwhile attraction.

The Route

The 2015 Dauphiné route offers a healthy dose of difficult climbs. The only stage without a categorized climb is the TTT, and even that has some challenges.

The race kicks off with a bumpy stage 1 likely to favor a punchier rider, with eight categorized climbs, small though they may be, on the day. Stage 2 does have a Cat. 1 challenge on the menu, but a long flat finale could favor the sprinters. The Stage 3 TTT will likely have serious GC implications. 24.5 kilometers is long enough to open the sort of gaps that will have an impact in a one-week race, especially given a long, slightly uphill stretch in the second half of the stage.

Stage 4 will be a day for the sprinters or more versatile fast-finishers before the GC riders come to the fore again on Stage 5, which closes out with a one-two punch of categorized climbs. Stage 6 is another day that may have a GC impact, closing out with a Category 3 climb.

Stage 7 will probably be the most decisive stage of the 2015 Critérium du Dauphiné. After 30 flat kilometers, it’s up and down the rest of the way, with a total of five Cat. 1s along the route, including the summit finish.

Stage 7: Montmélian › Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc (155km) – A succession of difficult climbs will likely make Stage 7 the Dauphiné’s most hotly contested GC battleground.

None of the climbs are all that brutal by themselves but altogether they will provide plenty of launching pads for the uphill specialists. Stage 8 closes out the race with another Category 1 summit finish at Modane Valfréujs.

The General Classification Contenders

Two of cycling’s so-called “Big Four” will garner the most attention coming into the race: Chris Froome and Vincenzo Nibali. Froome has won the race before, the year he won the Tour de France, and he may be hoping to replicate his performance from 2013, where he came into the Tour riding high on the back of strong performances in the one-weekers. He’s had a decent, though not great, year so far, and this is an opportunity to get on track with a big success for his Tour bid this year. At his best, Froome is almost unstoppable, and he should be motivated to be close to his best here. The team trial suits Sky well. Nicolas Roche and Wout Poels are among Froome’s many strong teammates in attendance who will be valuable supporters or even potential alternatives should the need arise.

Vincenzo Nibali’s path to Tour de France victory was a bit different from Froome’s—the Italian all-rounder did not look nearly as strong in the run-up to the 2014 Tour, but peaked at the right time in July. If he’s looking to replicate that approach, he might not be quite at 100% here. If he’s gunning for victory though, he should love the climber-friendly profile, and Astana’s TTT squad looks strong too. This is a great parcours for Nibali, without any individual time trial to potentially set him back against his more chrono-adept rivals—motivation may be the key factor in determining how well he performs.

Last year’s winner Andrew Talansky was one of the most surprising winners of a WorldTour race all year, grabbing the Critérium du Dauphiné yellow jersey with a brilliant breakaway move on the final stage. The lack of a time trial in this year’s edition does not suit Talansky, the USA’s new national time trial champion, but with all of these climbs, the opportunities are there for plenty of action should he be hoping to get aggressive again this year. Teammate Daniel Martin is another option—individual time trials often tank his chances in stage races, and the absence of one here will make this an attractive event for him.

Alejandro Valverde will love the Dauphiné parcours. He’s been cycling’s most successful rider so far this season, landing on podiums almost at will, and he should be motivated to prove himself ready for the Tour with Nairo Quintana elsewhere. Movistar brings a strong team that includes Beñat Intxausti, who was great in the Giro.

Tejay van Garderen has looked great at times this season, and mediocre at other times. With the Tour on the horizon, though, he should be in strong form in this race, and with the strength of BMC’s world champion TTT squad, he should be set up for success. Van Garderen has focused on improving as a pure climber recently and that will come in handy here.

Despite a disappointing Ardennes campaign, Joaquim Rodríguez has shown flashes of brilliance in 2015. If he rides here like he did in País Vasco, he’ll be difficult to beat, especially with these sorts of climbs—the uphill challenges in the Dauphiné are many, but none of them are of the brutal, interminable sort that could put Rodríguez into trouble against the likes of Froome. Katusha Teammate Giampaolo Caruso should be a great second. Lampre’s Rui Costa is riding in the Dauphiné instead of the Tour de Suisse this year, eschewing a chance to win a fourth Suisse title in a row. He is hoping to make his mark on the Tour de France this season, which means that the form should be there. The profile, with its constant ups and downs but without any Ventoux-esque climbs, should suit him very well too.

Wilco Kelderman rode well here last year and should be primed for success with the Tour around the corner. Julian Alaphilippe will be eager to show that his success on the climbs in California was no fluke. Trek’s Bauke Mollema rode very well in Tirreno-Adriatico, and should be in the mix with the favorites in this race if he can show that sort of form here. AG2R’s two-pronged attack of Romain Bardet and Jean-Christophe Peraud won’t be easy to counter, assuming the French squad can hang tough in the TTT. Mathias Frank, Pierre Rolland, and Daniel Navarro, and Simon Yates are others with an outside chance at success in the General Classification.

The Stagehunters

The list of sprinters in this mountains race is rather thin, but not without talents. Nacer Bouhanni, Sacha Modolo, and Luka Mezgec look like the fastest finishers here, with Tyler Farrar, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Samuel Dumoulin, Kris Boeckmans, and Kevin Reza are others who could be in the mix in the bunch kicks.

Versatile quick men like Simon Gerrans, Ramunas Navardauskas, and Tony Gallopin will hope to challenge the more explosive GC types on the intermediate days, like Stage 1. And of course, watch out for any strong climbers who fall out of contention early with poor TTT performances to get involved in the breakaway conversation later on in the race.

VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Favorites

GC Winner: Chris Froome
Podium: Alejandro Valverde, Vincenzo Nibali
Other Top Contenders: Tejay van Garderen, Joaquim Rodríguez, Andrew Talansky, Rui Costa, Romain Bardet, Bauke Mollema, Wilco Kelderman

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Georges Ménager (CC).

June 6, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 21 Preview

Stage 21: Torino › Milano – 185km

With Fabio Aru’s Stage 20 victory closing out the climber-oriented days of the 2015 Giro d’Italia, just one stage remains in the race.

Stage 21 is pan-flat from the start in Turin to the finish in Milan. It’s a profile the sprinters will love. The racing closes out with seven laps of a 5.4km circuit, and things get a bit technical in the second half of each lap, with multiple corners and a roundabout. That means that the final trip around the circuit will likely be hectic. The last kilometer, however, is a straightaway to the finish line, one that will likely see the big-name sprinters still in this race getting up to some very high speeds.

High-speed finishes are great for Sacha Modolo, whose two stage victories so far in this Giro make him the de facto favorite again here. His leadout support has been outstanding so far in the race, and he’s able to finish it off with a powerful finishing kick. All of the other quick men will have their eyes on the men in fuschia in Milan.

Giacomo Nizzolo is now up seven career 2nd-place finishes in Giro d’Italia sprints, but this may represent the best opportunity he’s ever had to finally take a victory. A technical run-in to the line suits his bike-handling skills, and the long straight finish suits his blazing top speed. The perfect flatness of the profile should help hide one of the weaknesses of his never-ending campaign to finally win a Giro stage: a leadout train that has always disappeared late in the race. Without any climbs to wear them out, Trek will have no excuses for leaving Nizzolo alone in this Stage 21 finale.

Elia Viviani started the Giro hot with a stage win, but he’s cooled since then. Still, for pure speed when at his best, Viviani is right up there with the other top names in this race, and can’t be counted out here.

Luka Mezgec won the final stage of last year’s Giro d’Italia, and he’ll benefit from the an always skilled Giant-Alpecin leadout in the tricky final few kilometers of this stage. He should be up there fighting for the overall win. LottoNL-Jumbo’s Moreno Hofland could be up there as well.

Davide Appollonio, Heinrich Haussler, and Kevin Reza are other riders to watch in the probable sprint finish of Stage 21.

VeloHuman Stage 21 Favorites

1. Giacomo Nizzolo | 2. Sacha Modolo | 3. Elia Viviani

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live analysis of Stage 21, and check back soon for plenty more pre-race coverage of the Critérium du Dauphiné, the Tour de Suisse, and, of course, the Tour de France.

-Dane Cash

May 30, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 20 Preview

Stage 20: Sint Vincent › Sestriere – 196km

After Fabio Aru stormed back into 2nd place overall with his Stage 19 victory, only one GC-oriented stage remains in the 2015 Giro d’Italia. Stage 20 is all about the Colle delle Finestre, one of the hardest climbs the professional peloton will ride all year.

Stage 20 opens with 150km of flat, which will put some exhaustion into the legs before the brutal ascent to the Cima Coppi, the highest point in the Giro d’Italia. The Colle delle Finestre is 18.5km long with a 9.2% average gradient, and after a very steep short opening stretch, it’s pretty steady all the way up. About halfway to the top, however, the pavement runs out—the final 7.8 kilometers are undertaken on a dirt road. Interestingly enough, after the riders finally make their way to the top, they’ll have more racing to do. The summit is followed by a short but steep descent and then another climb, the 9.2km, 5.4% Cat. 3 ascent to the finish line in Sestriere.

The breakaway may get a lot of space early on in the day, but as this is the last opportunity for any GC riders to get anything done, the pace could kick up at a moment’s notice as the final climb looms—and it’s not over after that. A strong break will have a chance, but enough favorites could be looking to pick up stage wins in the Giro in this last opportunity that the pack will have a good chance of catching the riders up the road.

Alberto Contador has one final chance to win a stage in the race he’s dominated. Just as was the case on Stage 19, the only question on Stage 20 is whether or not he wants to put in the effort. If he does, he should be able to take the victory here—on the incredibly difficult Colle delle Finestre, he should be able to distance his rivals if he is so inclined.

If Contador doesn’t go on the attack, there will be a strong favorites to take up the task. Fabio Aru now has his stage win and he’s back in 2nd place. He seems to have refound some form after a few days of weakness but he might not want to risk his 2nd place with an attack on these unforgiving challenges. Mikel Landa, out of contract for next year and back to 3rd, may have more incentive to go on the move, and if Contador is back to focusing on Aru, that could spring Landa for another stage victory.

Ryder Hesjedal has been very strong these past few stages, but for all his efforts, he’s still outside the Top 5 on GC and lacking a stage win. Expect the same type of aggressive Hesjedal we’ve seen over the last week. He has one last opportunity to make something happen here, and it’s a good one, given the way he’s been going lately.

Steven Kruijswijk has lost the KOM jersey and is in a similar boat to the one Hesjedal is in, outside the Top 5 and without a stage victory, despite some great riding in this Giro. He’ll be a rider to watch as well. Another rider to watch: Yuri Trofimov had a bad day (relatively speaking) on Stage 19 but don’t count out the former mountain biker on the dirt road climb here on Stage 20.

For potential long-range winners, look to the names that have now become familiar in that conversation, names like Beñat Intxausti, Giovanni Visconti, Franco Pellizotti, Carlos Betancur, Esteban Chaves, Darwin Atapuma, Edoardo Zardini, Francesco Bongiorno, and Stefano Pirazzi.

VeloHuman Stage 20 Favorites

1. Alberto Contador | 2. Mikel Landa | 3. Ryder Hesjedal

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 20 for the preview of the final stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 29, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 19 Preview

Stage 19: Gravellona Toce › Cervinia – 236km

Philippe Gilbert took a hard-fought victory at the end of a challenging Stage 18 but things don’t get any easier in the Giro’s 19th stage, among the hardest days in the whole Giro due to its length and climb-filled finale.

The first 150 of its 236 total kilometers are mostly flat except for a single short Cat. 3, but then things change dramatically. After 150km, the peloton will hit the first of three Cat. 1 climbs that come in rapid succession to conclude the stage. First up is the Saint-Barthélemy climb, 16.5km at 6.7%. Then the riders will take on a fast descent into the foot of the Col Saint-Pantaléon, also 16.5km but steeper, with a 7.2% average gradient. After that it’s a short downhill to the foot of the Cervinia climb to the summit finish, 19.2km at a 5% gradient. The toughest sections are midway through the climb, with things flattening out near the very top.

Stage 19 would be a long day even without the uphill challenges, but with so many kilometers of climbing, it will be positively brutal. Such a climber-friendly profile will likely spark action among the GC types who have just this stage and the day after it remaining to make something happen in this race. And while Alberto Contador may have the pink jersey virtually locked up, he may still be looking for a stage victory. Those things being the case, the GC teams in the bunch may put pressure on the breakaway and ultimately fight it out amongst themselves, though a strong break will appreciate the serrated-edge look of the parcours.

Contador is far and away the best all-rounder in the race, and he showed on Stage 18 that he isn’t content to sit around waiting to be crowned champion in Milan. He wants to dominate this race, and he’ll have an opportunity here. On these climbs, which might wear down weaker pretenders, Contador should have ample opportunity to put the hammer down if he really wants to.

Mikel Landa has been the only climber who has come close to matching Contador’s strength in this race, and he will have a chance at a third Giro stage win here if Contador is unwilling to expend the energy required to keep him in check. Astana teammate Fabio Aru hasn’t looked as strong these past few days as he did at the start of the race, so Landa is probably Astana’s best hope here, though there is always the possibility Aru may now be the one allowed to slip away in pursuit of the Stage 19 victory while Contador has his eye on Landa.

Should the other GC types near the top of the leaderboard be given any breathing room on the late climbs, Yuri Trofimov has looked very strong recently. He has a lot of ground to make up on Aru but the podium is not completely out of the question, which will be excellent motivation for Trofimov. Leopold König should appreciate these sorts of climbs if he’s feeling strong, as should Steven Kruijswijk, who could be looking to continue his aggressive approach now that he’s wearing the blue KOM jersey.

Ryder Hesjedal is now firmly inside the GC Top 10 but he’s far enough outside of the pink jersey picture that he’s been given opportunities to get up the road. Assuming he still as the energy after a strong effort on Stage 18, he will almost certainly attempt something long-range from whatever group he is in, and he may have a shot at the early breakaway.

For other potential long-range winners, look for other names that have become familiar in the breakaway conversation so far: Movistar’s Giovanni Visconti and Beñat Intxausti (who will be on the lookout for KOM points), AG2R’s Carlos Betancur, Katusha’s Ilnur Zakarin, Sky’s Mikel Nieve, Bardiani’s Stefano Pirazzi, BMC’s Darwin Atapuma, and Androni Giocattoli’s Franco Pellizotti.

VeloHuman Stage 19 Favorites

1. Alberto Contador | 2. Mikel Landa | 3. Yuri Trofimov

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 19 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 28, 2015