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Tirreno-Adriatico 2015 Preview

The 50th running of Tirreno-Adriatico offers the cycling world a double dose of WorldTour racing for a few days in March as it overlaps with Paris-Nice in France. The Italian stage race boasts a startlist that includes three of the top four Tour de France favorites (Chris Froome was on the startlist but has withdrawn with a chest infection), elite sprinters, and a bevy of Classics stars tuning up for the one-day races around the corner. Recent history would suggest that this race is an important test for those stars hoping to stand at cycling’s center stage. After winning here last season, Alberto Contador went on to nab quite a collection of results over the course of the rest of his year. In fact, the last six editions in a row have been won by riders who either already had or would go on to add Grand Tour victories to their palmares. No other one-week stage race can boast such a consistent correlation between its winners and the winners of the sport’s biggest events.

The Route

With chrono mileage, sprint stages, bumpier days, and a brutal summit finish all along the route, Tirreno-Adriatico has all the makings of a mini-Grand Tour. Stage 1 is a flat, 5.7-kilometer individual time trial that replaced a TTT at the last moment. Something this short isn’t likely to shake up the GC all that much but it can’t be overlooked either. Meanwhile, some of the more powerful sprinters on the startlist will appreciate the chance to get a rare chrono victory. They will have another chance to shine on the short and flat Stage 2, which will almost certainly end in a bunch gallop.

Things get a bit more interesting on Stage 3, where the peloton will overcome cobbles and some short climbs in the second half of the day likely to favor the punchier riders. Stage 4 poses several challenges, with climbs of the Poggio San Romualdo and Monte San Vicino followed by back-back ascents of the short but steep Crispiero climb, almost certain to launch late attacks.

Stage 5 of Tirreno-Adriatico will put the peloton to the test with a summit finish on the Terminillo climb. 16.1 kilometers at 7.3%, it’s a long slog to the top that will put serious pain into the legs of anyone coming into this race out of shape.

Stage 5: Esanatoglia › Terminillo (197 km) – The long Terminillo climb on the fifth stage of Tirreno Adriatico will be a difficult test of uphill power.

Bauke Mollema told the Recon Ride that this was going to be a climb for the “strong guys” where long-term wattage would be key, and it’s easy to see why.

Stage 6 brings the riders back down towards sea level and should end in a bunch sprint. The seventh and final stage is a flat, 10 kilometer ITT, one final chance for GC action on the last day of the race. From start to finish, it is a balanced route that will require a complete skillset to win. Bonus seconds of 10-6-4 at finishes (and 3-2-1 at intermediate sprints) will benefit those with some punch.

General Classification Contenders

For weeks this was set up to be a clash of cycling’s “Big Four,” the four top favorites for the Tour de France, but Chris Froome withdrew from the startlist with a chest infection, leaving only three of those Grand Tour stars to battle it out with the rest of the contenders. It should still be quite a show.

Defending champion Alberto Contador will enter the race as the top favorite, with his combination of strong time trialing and elite climbing legs, and having shown great form in the Ruta del Sol, where only Froome could beat him. He dominated this race last year and it given his abilities it’s easy to see him head and shoulders above the competition again. Roman Kreuziger, who seems to be in excellent shape right now, will make for a strong support rider or a deadly alternative.

The alteration of Stage 1 from a TTT to an ITT helps Contador even more: his biggest rival looks to be last year’s runner-up Nairo Quintana, who rides for a Movistar team that would have likely put in an excellent performance in the group chrono; now, Quintana must go against the clock by himself, twice. That said, Quintana will have his opportunities to strike for glory on the challenging slopes that await in Tirreno-Adriatico, and he did show some form in January at the Tour de San Luis, where he was 3rd and even put in a decent ride in a mostly flat ITT. Quintana gets better every year (he just turned 25 in February), and he will relish the opportunity to climb one step higher on the podium than he did in the 2014 edition of the race.

Vincenzo Nibali has won here twice, and in top shape he would merit more consideration as the top overall favorite, but has not shown a great deal of form so far this season. He may be following a pattern similar to the one he followed last year, slowly building to his Tour de France peak; it certainly worked out for him in 2014. Furthermore, the route isn’t ideal for him, with its double helping of ITT days. Still, Nibali has gone from showing little form to riding at an elite level very quickly in the past. If that is what he has in mind for Tirreno-Adriatico, watch for him to try to take an early advantage on Stage 3, where short steep climbs will provide launching pads and late descents could help Nibali, a brilliant descender, escape from the peloton if he makes the attempt. A powerful team that includes Dario Cataldo, Michele Scarponi, and Lieuwe Westra will give Astana options.

The form of Joaquim Rodríguez, who typically merits inclusion among the top favorites in a stage race, is a major unknown after quiet starts in Dubai and Oman. The course doesn’t suit him particularly well either, though Purito can never be counted out. Daniel Moreno is here for Katusha as well. Unlike Rodríguez, Moreno has put in decent rides in San Luis and Oman already this season.

New Colombian ITT champ Rigoberto Urán flashed some form in Strade Bianche, where he was 7th, and this is an excellent parcours for him. Tirreno-Adriatico has difficult climbs, but nothing of the incredibly steep variety that might put him into difficulty against the likes of Contador. For Urán, the time trials and potential for bonus seconds (his finishing kick is impressive) on a few stages will be a golden opportunity to challenge the defending champion, as well as the only two riders who have finished the Giro ahead of him the past two season, Nibali and Quintana.

Bauke Mollema will lead the charge for Trek Factory Racing, and he says that he’s feeling good after an offseason with his new team, which a string of good results in early season races seems to confirm. Julián Arredondo gives Trek another dangerous option on the climbs.

Despite the absence of Chris Froome, Sky will still have a strong presence in Tirreno-Adriatico. Leopold König sports a strong time trial and can climb with the best on a good day and Mikel Nieve was 4th in the Ruta del Sol in February. Both riders should be motivated to take advantage of the opportunity to ride for their own results.

AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo would probably prefer more mountains, but he can’t be ignored here. He was 6th last year, and is coming off a nice ride in the Tour Down Under. Teammate Carlos Betancur is a bit of a wildcard, brilliant at his best but not having shown any form since this time last year. Cannondale-Garmin will have the weapons to make for an interesting race with Ryder Hesjedal, Davide Formolo, and Daniel Martin. FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot would prefer less chrono mileage but he has improved in that discipline over the past few seasons and will hope to make up any time he loses in the ITTs on the climbs in the middle of the race. New teammate Steve Morabito is VeloHuman’s Under-the-radar rider for Tirreno-Adriatico. After several years at BMC working as a reliable support rider, Morabito joined FDJ over the offseason. He’s a great climber and decent in the time trials, but he did not get many opportunities to ride for himself at BMC. It should be clear pretty early on in this race whether he is being given a chance to get his own results; if he is, he should surprise some people. Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Pierre Rolland, and Louis Meintjes are other outsiders with a shot.

Stagehunters

Much like Froome among the GC contenders, a sick Marcel Kittel withdrew from the race and the sprinters conversation, leaving Mark Cavendish looking like the top rider for the sprints. He will still have competition, however, especially as he and leadout man Mark Renshaw are both overcoming illness. Sky’s new acquisition Elia Viviani has beaten Cavendish more than once in the past and will hope to do so here. IAM’s Matteo Pelucchi is in great shape right now and should be in the mix. Bora-Argon 18’s Sam Bennett won a hotly contested sprint stage in Qatar and will be dangerous in the fast finishes. Peter Sagan will likely be involved in the bunch sprints as well, and will be especially dangerous on Stage 3, which finishes in Arezzo, where he won last year. Lampre’s Sacha Modolo, Giant’s Luka Mezgec, and Tyler Farrar and Matt Goss of MTN-Qhubeka are other fast men to watch out for.

With two chrono stages, the time trial talents merit a mention as well: Adriano Malori, Fabian Cancellara, Ian Stannard, and Niki Terpstra should all appreciate the pair of opportunities to pick up WorldTour stage wins against the clock at the open and close of the race.

VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites

Winner: Alberto Contador
Podium: Nairo Quintana, Rigoberto Urán
Other Top Contenders: Vincenzo Nibali, Bauke Mollema, Domenico Pozzovivo, Roman Kreuziger, Thibaut Pinot, Joaquim Rodríguez, Leopold König

For daily stage predictions and more Tirreno-Adriatico commentary, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter. And of course, don’t miss the Recon Ride for Tirreno-Adriatico 2015, which covers all the big storylines of the race and even includes a bit of insider insight from GC contender Bauke Mollema.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Francesco Ianett.

March 9, 2015
Paris-Nice 2015 Preview

After a February break, WorldTour racing is upon us again. The 73rd running of Paris-Nice brings time trials and high mountains back into play after a year without them. The 2014 edition of the race favored punchy opportunists with a talent for nabbing bonus seconds, but this year’s event will put the more prototypical General Classification contenders in the best position to challenge for the overall victory. While Tirreno-Adriatico may have drawn the “big four” Grand Tour contenders, there are still plenty of elite talents headed to France this weekend to contest the Race to the Sun. As the European WorldTour opener, and the season-opener for many big names, and with another shakeup of the parcours, Paris-Nice offers plenty of storylines to make for an interesting race (storylines also investigated in further detail in the Recon Ride’s Paris-Nice pre-race show, which you should check out if you haven’t already).

The Route

Paris-Nice opens with a short, flat prologue of 6.7 kilometers. It’s hardly long enough to open big gaps on GC but this should be a close race so the riders hoping to fight for the overall victory here will be on their toes. A flat Stage 1 should go to the pure sprinters, and the fast men will likely get another chance on the similarly flat Stage 2. A very slightly inclined finish on Stage 3 could at least give the lighter sprinters an advantage to mix things up, but it should again be large group that reaches the line together in Saint-Pourçain-sur-Sioule.

The mountains arrive quite suddenly on Stage 4. Early climbs in the profile could prove a nice launching pad, and late climbs and winding roads a nice buffer, for a strong breakaway, but whether stage honors are on the line or not, the GC battle will be fierce.

Stage 4: Varennes-sur-Allier › Croix de Chaubouret (204 km) – After several day of flat profiles, a summit finish on Stage 4 will suddenly put the GC contenders to the test.

The Cat. 1 closing climb of the Croix de Chauboret doesn’t compare to some of the more grueling climbs these riders will face in the Grand Tours later this season but at the end of a day of constant climb, and this early in the season, it will very likely catch a number of contenders out. It’s a mostly gradual ascent to the summit finish but a high tempo from one of the powerhouse teams is sure to leave big names off the back before the line.

A few bumps along the road to Rasteau and an uphill drag to the line will make Stage 5 an interesting battleground on which sprinters, aggressors, and punchier climbers will all have a chance. The more explosive GC riders could be on the lookout for bonus seconds.

Bonus seconds could also be hotly contested on Stage 6, which is up and down all day long with a total of three Category 2 climbs and three Category 1 climbs. After the last (Cat. 1) climb it’s a long downhill run to the line. If the climbs don’t give the uphill purists room to get separation, a small group could descend the Côte de Peille together, which will guarantee an exciting final few minutes.

Paris-Nice ends with a 9.6-kilometer time trial up the Col d’Éze, also the final battleground for both the 2012 and 2013 editions of the race. The 4.7% average gradient may not look like much but past editions has proven that this is a chrono for the elite climbers.

Stage 7 (ITT): Nice › Col d’Éze (9.6 km) – Past editions of the race have proven that this climb is not to be taken lightly.

Under 10 kilometers though it may be, the Col d’Éze climb is going to open up gaps in the General Classification fight, guaranteeing that Paris-Nice will come down to the very last day.

All told, there’s something for everyone in Paris-Nice. Those battling for overall supremacy will need to battle through a variety of different challenges, against gravity and against the clock, to emerge victorious. Meanwhile, those hoping to come away from Europe first WorldTour race of the year with stage wins will face stiff competition with the long list of strong sprinters.

The General Classification Contenders

More so than the 2014 edition, the 2015 Paris-Nice route is especially favorable to the big engine riders who can fend for themselves in the time trials and long vertical drags. Coming off of a strong performance in the Tour Down Under (where his inability to consolidate bonus seconds left him just off the top step of the podium) Richie Porte is clearly in terrific shape for the year, and Paris-Nice offers him a a golden opportunity to put his National Championship-winning ITT skills on display. His great climbing legs put him in the lead a few stages prior in the 2013 Paris-Nice, and he clinched the overall win on that year’s run up the Col d’Éze, where no one was faster. Two years since then, with that challenging finale returning to the route, Porte’s GC bid will be difficult to overcome in 2015, especially backed by the powerhouse Sky powerhouse lineup that includes Geraint Thomas and Nicolas Roche as dangerous support riders or potential alternatives.

BMC’s Tejay van Garderen is another rider capable of battling with the very best in both the climbs and the time trial. Fresh from the Tour of Oman, where he was a close runner-up, van Garderen looks lean and on-form. In fact, he has a history of performing very well early in the season. The steady gradient of the Stage 4 finishing climb suits him well, both time trials should be opportunities for him to advance on the GC leaderboard, and he even has a bit more explosiveness than many realize should he find himself in a small group with bonus seconds on the line at any point. With Cadel Evans in retirement, now is the time for van Garderen to prove that he can be the sole GC leader of this team, and his combination of skills puts him in an excellent spot to do so here. Van Garderen also has an excellent team around him, with Rohan Dennis, climbing better than ever, as a very strong second.

Rui Costa was 2nd in last year’s race (and in fact racked up a pair of 2nd-place stage finishes along the way) but he has the skill set to thrive on the updated parcours as well, combining great climbing legs with time trialing chops that can’t be overlooked (though they often are) and the explosiveness and aggressiveness to win battles for bonus seconds. With Rafael Valls, fresh off a Tour of Oman victory, here as well, Lampre should be able to hold their own.

Multi-talented Michal Kwiatkowski will look to attack the GC leaderboard early even from the first day of racing, with prologues a particularly forte of his, and he should be in the mix for bonus seconds here and there throughout the race. At times, he has flashed brilliance even on the tough mountain climbs, but he has had a tendency to suffer a bad day in the mountains here and there in his career. If he can avoid that sort of off-day in Paris-Nice and stay close to the best climbers, he will have a great shot at the overall win.

Dutch rising star Wilco Kelderman had a very impressive 2014 and he will look to continue to develop as LottoNL’s GC star this season. Interestingly, he did not quite perform to (high) expectations in the chronos last year, but a 2nd-place ITT finish in Andalucia last month has him looking sharp and ready to race against the clock this year. Ever-improving climbing skills and a fierce finishing kick for the bonus seconds make him a strong competitor.

Rafal Majka of Tinkoff-Saxo will likely do a lot of work for Alberto Contador this season, but the 25-year-old Polish climber, 4th overall in Oman last month, is in great shape at the moment and won’t pass up an opportunity to mix it up in a WorldTour race. He is an excellent uphill time trialist who should perform well on the final stage. Fabio Aru of Astana also knows about being the second of two elite GC riders on one team, and with clouds of uncertainty hanging over Astana, now would be a good time for him to make a statement as the featured GC rider while Vincenzo Nibali is leading the squad in Tirreno-Adriatico. At his best, Aru would rival Porte as a pre-race favorite but his completely unknown form makes him more of a question mark. Teammate Jakob Fuglsang will be an excellent second, 5th here last year on a parcours that did not suit him particularly well. 7th in Oman in February, Fuglsang is the in-form rider. With Lieuwe Westra and Luis Leon Sanchez (two riders with results in Paris-Nice in the past) here as well, Astana will almost certainly be on the move at every opportunity.

Andrew Talansky is a question mark for form at the moment, not having raced at all in 2015, but Paris-Nice was something of a coming out party for him in 2013, and with a similar course he has the skillset to thrive again. Jean-Christophe Péraud was on the podium that year as well, but his form is dubious right now. Teammate Romain Bardet looks like the better option for AG2R. Mathias Frank is a massive talent in the one-week events for IAM Cycling. Warren Barguil isn’t much for the time trials, but with the uphill nature of Stage 7, that may not hurt him too much. He should fight for a Top 10. Katusha’s Tiago Machado, Simon Spilak, and Sergey Chernetskiy should be in the mix on the climbs and with their combined firepower, they have the ability to attack the GC leaderboard from several angles.

Simon Yates of Orica-GreenEdge, Movistar’s trio of Rubén Fernández, Beñat Intxausti, and Ion Izaguirre, and Trek’s Bob Jungels (who has a great shot at winning the prologue) will also hope to get involved in the GC conversation. VeloHuman’s Under-the-radar rider for Paris-Nice is Eduardo Sepúlveda of Bretagne-Séché Environnement. 4th overall in San Luis in January and the winner of the recent Classic Sud Ardèche, Sepúlveda is the complete GC package and sporting great form right now. For his team, motivation to put on a show at the WorldTour level will be high, and the 23-year-old Argentinian has the skillset to take up the charge.

The Stagehunters

The list of top sprinting talents making the start in Paris-Nice seems to go on forever. Though Mark Cavendish and Marcel Kittel won’t set out from Maurepas, the startlist does include André Greipel, Nacer Bouhanni, Alexander Kristoff, Arnaud Démare, Giacomo Nizzolo, and John Degenkolb as the riders likeliest to contend for the sprint finishes. Michael Matthews, Heinrich Haussler, and Ben Swift will hope to get involved on the slightly bumpier days.

Punchy Arthur Vichot, Michael Albasini, Tony Gallopin, Philippe Gilbert, and Tom-Jelte Slagter will look to get into the mix when the road is too hard for the sprinting powerhouses, as may be the case in the finale of the hard-to-predict Stage 5.

The startlist is also overflowing with elite time trailing specialists. In addition to those mentioned as GC contenders, Bradley Wiggins, Tony Martin, Tom Dumoulin, and Thomas De Gendt are among the many in attendance who excel against the clock.

VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites

Winner: Tejay van Garderen
Podium: Richie Porte, Rui Costa
Other Top Contenders: Michal Kwiatkowski, Wilco Kelderman, Rafal Majka, Andrew Talansky, Fabio Aru, Beñat Intxausti, Romain Bardet

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more Paris-Nice commentary and daily stage predictions, and check back soon for plenty of Tirreno-Adriatico pre-race analysis.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Mike Slone.

March 6, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: Paris-Nice 2015 Pre-race Show

Episode 2: Paris-Nice 2015 Pre-race Show
The WorldTour returns, and so does the Recon Ride, previewing the Race to the Sun.
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The WorldTour arrives in Europe this Sunday at the 73rd edition of Paris-Nice. After a 2014 parcours that eschewed the time trials and high mountain finishes, the event is returning to a more familiar route. VeloHuman and Cyclocosm join forces to dig deeper into the storylines of the race.

Photo by Mike Slone.

March 5, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: Tour Down Under 2015 Pre-race Show

Episode 1: Tour Down Under 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride delves into the route and the startlist for the first WorldTour race of the year.
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VeloHuman is teaming up with Cosmo Catalano, the man behind How the Race Was Won and The Week in Bike, to present The Recon Ride, a pre-race podcast show. Our inaugural episode previews the 2015 Tour Down Under, delving into the route and the startlist, with a bit of Heinrich Haussler interview audio from a piece VH did for CyclingTips that you should absolutely check out, and even a few predictions at the end. Give it a listen!

January 18, 2015
Tour Down Under 2015 Preview

The wait is over! The long WorldTour offseason is finally coming to an end as things get kicked off this week in Australia with the 17th edition of the Tour Down Under. A six-day stage race in and around Adelaide, the race has grown bigger and bigger in the past few years, and the parcours has developed as well: heavyweight sprinters have won the overall here in the past, but these days, a hillier route favors the more capable climbers in the peloton. Those hills tend to make for an exciting return to WorldTour racing, and also welcome return to race preview season here at VeloHuman.

Note: a shorter version of this preview can be seen at VeloNews.

The Route

There are no Alpine inclines to overcome in the Tour Down Under, but the hills that feature in a few of the race’s six stages are more than enough of a challenge to keep things interesting. The first WorldTour race of the year opens with a short (132.6 km) and mostly flat trip from Tanunda to Campbelltown, ending with a long straightaway that should give the sprinters an opportunity to pick up a victory. Stage 2 concludes with an uphill finish that has featured in previous editions of the Tour Down Under, probably not steep enough to make any serious separation likely, but potentially a place for the punchier GC contenders to make a bid for precious bonus seconds. Stage 3 features a new climb near the finish line in Paracombe, a short but steep affair that will almost certainly see gaps appearing in the bunch. The uphill specialists with GC aspirations cannot hesitate to launch for glory on Stage 3, as it is one of the few opportunities they will have to get clear of the peloton in the Tour Down Under.

Stage 4 will take the peloton on an undulating journey from Glenelg to Mt. Barker, where a flat finish will likely deter anyone from engaging in GC action. Stage 5, on the other hand, is the traditional queen stage of the Tour Down Under, 151.5 kilometers from McLaren Vale to classic TDU climb Willunga Hill, which will be climbed twice. 3 km at an average gradient over 7%, Old Willunga will inevitably see a showdown among the top climbers of the race. Richie Porte won here in 2014 with a 10 second gap, though as has often been the case in the TDU, his margin was not enough to overcome the GC bid of Simon Gerrans, whose propensity to collect bonus seconds put him in the driver’s seat in last year’s race. In other words, it is crucial to finish well on Willunga Hill, but consistent performance on the other five stages of the race is also crucial.

Stage 6 closes out the 2015 Tour Down Under with a 90 kilometer circuit race in the heart of Adelaide, essentially a very long criterium that almost invariably favors the pure sprinters.

Looking at the big picture, Stages 2, 3, and 5 are those likeliest to see the GC contenders trying to position themselves for a showdown. Regardless of whether serious gaps open up there or on any of the TDU’s six stages, however, it is important to be near the front at every finish line, as the dearth of long mountain climbs makes the battle for bonus seconds critical to the General Classification fight.

The GC Contenders

Sifting through the startlist to pick out the major favorites for the overall in the TDU can be difficult because the position of the race on the cycling calendar (in January) makes form and motivation a major unknown for a number of the riders in attendance, especially for those non-Australians who are not coming off of Nationals week like the home riders are. The absence of last year’s winner Simon Gerrans (who is out with a broken collarbone) will only add to that unpredictability. Still, plenty of big names, Australian and otherwise, stand out as likely GC contenders.

Having taken an impressive victory over several talented chrono stars in the Australian ITT National Championship, Richie Porte has proven to be in blazing form this January. There is no time trial in the TDU, and Porte isn’t known for his finishing kick, which will make it difficult for him to play the bonus seconds game, but with his ability to climb at an elite level, that might not matter. Given his display of fitness at Nationals, he looks ready to put it on the line here and it will be hard for his rivals to keep him in check when the road goes up. Geraint Thomas was 8th here last year even while riding in a support role for Porte, and he was 3rd in 2013. His powerful engine and not-insignificant sprinting ability will come in handy here, making him an excellent potential alternative for Sky.

Cadel Evans leads a BMC team that will hope to take on the Sky roster. This will be Evans’s last WorldTour event before he retires in a few weeks, and he’s never won this race, so he should be motivated to give it his all (especially after missing out on the victory here last year by one second). Even at age 37, he’s still got a nice finishing kick to pick up all-important time bonuses, and will be dangerous on several stages. In up-and-coming Australian talent Rohan Dennis, BMC has a strong second card to play. Dennis is known as a time-trialist but he climbed with the very best in last year’s Tour of California, and he is continuing to get better and better as an all-round talent.

Despite the absence of Simon Gerrans, Orica-GreenEdge will take on their home race with several potential GC men, with Daryl Impey looking like the best option. Impey is deadly in a reduced sprint, and if he can gain an early advantage of bonus seconds, he might have what it takes to hold on over the harder climbs. Simon Clarke’s penchant for aggressive riding could come in handy, especially in a race where one strong stage performance can be enough for an overall victory. Past winner Cameron Meyer will be more of an outsider this year, but a rider worth watching at the very least.

Cannondale-Garmin is another team with options. Ryder Hesjedal, Moreno Moser, and Alex Howes are all well-rounded talents with the potential to mix it up on a variety of stages, but Nathan Haas could be the best man on the squad for this Tour Down Under. He is another rider who will hope to win the bonus seconds game, and he showed off his strong finishing kick in last year’s race on his way to 5th overall. He has a propensity to perform very well outside of Europe, with two Japan Cup victories and results in the Jayco Herald Sun Tour and Tour de Langkawi as well.

Giant-Alpecin’s dual threat of Tom Dumoulin and Simon Geschke will be dangerous if both riders are in good enough form to mix it up with the favorites in this race. Dumoulin has an underrated sprint to match his elite soloing ability, while Geschke’s fast finish is a known commodity that will make him a contender for time bonuses on the 2nd and 4th stages. Katusha has Tiago Machado, an excellent climber, and Giampaolo Caruso, who is more explosive than many realize. That makes them another team with a dual threat worth keeping an eye on. AG2R brings a stable of climbers as well, with Domenico Pozzovivo the most prominent name but with Christophe Riblon and Blel Kadri, typically very strong on hillier days like the ones that could decide this race, making the start as well.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Michael Rogers will look to get clear of the peloton at any opportunity. The same is true for Lotto Soudal’s Adam Hansen; the Belgian squad also Thomas De Gendt as a potential contender. Astana’s Luis Leon Sanchez won here way back in 2005, and having returned to the WorldTour level with Astana after a year with Caja Rural, he will hope to kick the year off in style; his combination of strong soloing ability, decent climbing ability, and a nice sprint make him a dangerous outsider here. Movistar’s Jose Herrada and Gorka Izagirre and LottoNL’s George Bennett are other outsiders with a chance.

The Stagehunters

On the list of fast men who are making the start with clear stage-winning goals in mind, sprinting superstar Marcel Kittel tops the list, but his objectives and his readiness to take on a WorldTour-level race are a big question mark. He won the 2014 People’s Choice Classic but was afterward a non-factor in this race. Obviously, if he is in good shape, he will be the man to beat here in 2015, but that’s a big if. Form is also an unknown for talented Italians Giacomo Nizzolo and Roberto Ferrari, but there are stages to suit both if they are here to race. Nizzolo has great top-end speed and the opening stage to Campbelltown could suit him. Typically Mark Renshaw might have trouble hanging with the aforementioned big names, but on his home turf, anything is possible. Etixx – Quick-Step will hope to start the year off with a stage win from either Renshaw or the versatile Gianni Meersman, who could feature in Stages 2 or 4.

Heinrich Haussler is another rider with the potential to shine on those somewhat bumpier days. He was on excellent form in the Australian National Championship Road Race, getting into the day’s early breakaway at first, and then, after that was reeled in, jumping right back into another move off the front, the move that won the race. With that form, he should be able to do pick up some results in the Tour Down Under.

Steele Von Hoff, Barry Markus, Gregory Henderson, and JJ Lobato are other fast men to keep an eye on here.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

General Classification Winner: Richie Porte
GC Podium: Cadel Evans, Daryl Impey
Other Top GC Contenders: Nathan Haas, Tom Dumoulin, Geraint Thomas, Michael Rogers, Luis Leon Sanchez, Domenico Pozzovivo, Tiago Machado

VeloHuman was so excited about the return of racing season that in addition to writing this preview, VH teamed up with Cosmo Catalano to present The Recon Ride Podcast, a pre-race show. Give it a listen! And as usual, VH will be tweeting plenty of live analysis during the race, so follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Kym Della-Torre.

January 17, 2015
Tour of Beijing 2014 Preview

The WorldTour calendar concludes with the Tour of Beijing, a five-day stage race in and around China’s capital city. The event may be in its final year of existence, but it should provide a good show: plenty of big names have made the trip to China for the farewell party. The race may not have the history or prestige of other stage races on the WT calendar, but it is the last opportunity for the pros to pick up WorldTour wins, and it also tends to see a relatively high number teams filling their squads with younger riders hunting name-making victories. In short, there is still plenty of motivation in the peloton to land results in this race.

The Route

The organizers have added a few extra bumps between the Stage 1 start and the Stage 5 finish, but this race has always had plenty of opportunities for the sprinters and the 2014 edition is no exception. The opening stage has a few early hills but the second half of the stage is mostly flat or downhill, and anything but a sprint finish would be a surprise. Stage 2 offers a few uphill tests, but a long stretch of flat before the finish will favor the faster finishers again. Stage 3 could shake things up, with seven categorized climbs, including a Cat. 1 in the middle of the day and a Cat. 3 crested 11 kilometers from the finish.

Stage 4: Yanqing › Mentougou Miaofeng Mountain (157 km) – The Queen Stage of the Tour of Beijing concludes with a climb of Miaofeng Mountain; this race was won on its slopes last year, and the ascent is likely to be the decisive test in this year’s edition as well.

Stage 4 is the Queen Stage of the Tour of Beijing, and it closes out with the Maofeng Mountain climb that decided last year’s edition of the race (Movistar’s Beñat Intxausti sailed past Dan Martin to take the stage and, ultimately, the time gap that led to his overall victory, on the final slopes). This year, a Category 2 test has been added just before the final ascent to provide extra excitement; this should be the most important GC day in the race. The fifth and final stage starts in Tiananmen Square and heads into an urban circuit that finishes near the National Stadium (typically known as the Bird’s Nest) built for the 2008 Olympics. It’s a pan-flat profile and should see another sprint showdown for the final WorldTour victory of 2014.

The General Classification Contenders

Daniel Martin of Garmin-Sharp is one of a collection of riders who have continually targeted this race, young though it may be, over the past few years. The Irish climber came close to victory last year, but Movistar had too much firepower in the Queen Stage, and Martin had to settle for second. When he has been healthy this year, Martin has been very strong, and coming off his second career Monument victory last weekend, he is obviously on blazing form. He is very well-suited to the Tour of Beijing: this is a short race that is likely to be decided on one or two climb-heavy days, which will give an explosive talent like Martin a chance to showcase his abilities, while limiting the likelihood of a bad day. Ryder Hesjedal will be a very strong second. Garmin has the strength here to fight for the overall victory.

Rui Costa was part of that powerhouse Movistar squad in 2013, coming in 4th overall, but this year he rides as team leader for Lampre-Merida. He has showed strong late-season form, he told VH this past weekend that he’s targeting a big result here in Beijing, and he is always very dangerous in the weeklong stage races at the highest level, with already three podium finishes (including a win) in the World one-weekers this year. Costa is motivated to close out his season with a victory, and should again be in the mix at the top of the leaderboard, especially with a few added challenges in this years race that could favor his brand of aggressive riding on the harder days.

BMC’s one-two punch of Tejay van Garderen and Samuel Sanchez will be hard to counter. At peak form, van Garderen is one of the very best stage racers on this startlist, but his shape, and his motivation for that matter, are a bit of an unknown. Still, it’s been a strong year for the American, and he’s shown some newly developed explosiveness that could make the difference in this race that does offer bonus seconds at the stage finishes. Form isn’t a question for teammate Samuel Sanchez, who was 5th in Il Lombardia last week. His 6th overall finish in the Vuelta earlier this month would suggest that he still has plenty in the tank on the climbs, even at age 36, and he gives BMC another card to play here.

Last year’s winner Beñat Intxausti makes his return looking for a repeat. It’s always hard to judge form with Intxausti, who is so often tasked with riding for Nairo Quintana or Alejandro Valverde, but who does have some real achievements on his palmares; in addition to the 2013 victory here, he has been 2nd in Pais Vasco, 3rd in Pologne, and 8th in the Giro in his still relatively young career. If he is in good shape here, he should be able to contend for another win, though admittedly with just a bit less firepower at his disposal than he had in 2013 when Rui Costa was a teammate. Jesus Herrada, who has had a nice year, will hope to thrive as second in his stead.

Giant-Shimano’s Warren Barguil has looked strong the past several weeks, and his Vuelta Top 10 was a real achievement, especially against such strong competition. With no time trials and a probable mountain showdown for GC honors, the Tour of Beijing would seem to fit him nicely. The 22-year-old mixed it up with some of the best in the world in Spain and he’ll have a chance to pick up his first win of the season here.

It’s been a quiet year for Team Sky’s David Lopez, but the Spaniard took 3rd here last year and he does have a fair bit of uphill talent and the ability to get aggressive on the climbs. Teammate Phil Deignan should thrive on this parcours, and Dario Cataldo, who has put in several big rides this year, can’t be counted out; Sky has options in the race.

Form and motivation are a question mark for Rigoberto Uran, but the Colombian has plenty of uphill talent and a particularly speedy finishing kick in a fight for bonus seconds. If he’s in shape, he’ll be a top contender. Countryman Julian Arredondo of Trek Factory Racing is another star of the Giro who hasn’t had quite the same results late in the year, but he looked okay in Milano-Torino and could be the mix. Teammate Robert Kiserlovski has not landed any big results recently either, but if he can find some of his early season form, he could get involved in the General Classification battle.

Katusha’s Sergei Chernetckii, OGE’s Simon Yates, Esteban Chaves, and Pieter Weening, FDJ’s Alexandre Geniez, and Belkin’s Steven Kruijswijk are on the list of GC outsiders. AG2R sends Carlos Betancur, whose abilities are well-suited to a race likely to come down to one day of climbing, but who hasn’t shown any form since April; Rinaldo Nocentini was 6th here in 2012 and has looked very strong in his past few races, and could be the better bet.

The Stagehunters

Several potential sprint stages have drawn a number of quick men (especially young ones) to Beijing. Luka Mezgec and Sacha Modolo are probably the fastest sprinters on the startlist. Ben Swift put in a decent sprint at Worlds and should be in the mix. Youngster Caleb Ewan of OGE could get involved in the fast finishes, as could veteran Daryl Impey. Other likely sprint contenders are Garmin-Sharp’s Tyler Farrar, Belkin’s Moreno Hofland, Trek’s Danny van Poppel, AG2R’s Davide Appollonio, and OPQS’s Nikolas Maes. Meanwhile, riders like Philippe Gilbert, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Adam Hansen, and Giovanni Visconti could be on the lookout for opportunities to get clear of the purer sprinters when the road gets a little more challenging.

VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites

Winner: Daniel Martin
Podium: Rui Costa, Warren Barguil
Other Top Contenders: Beñat Intxausti, Samuel Sanchez, Tejay van Garderen, Rigoberto Uran, Robert Kiserlovski, David Lopez, Julian Arredondo

That’s it for VeloHuman’s race previews in 2014. I hope you have enjoyed reading them! Be sure to follow VeloHuman on Twitter, and stay tuned for more commentary and analysis during the offseason; the racing may stop, but VeloHuman won’t.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Leo Laporte.

October 9, 2014