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Eneco Tour 2014 Preview

The WorldTour returns to the land of the Spring Classics for one week in August, and that week is upon us: the 2014 Eneco Tour is here. A seven-day ride through Belgium and the Netherlands, the Eneco Tour was for many years a race decided almost exclusively by one day of time trialing, but recent years have seen more and more challenges added to the parcours to guarantee that the battle for General Classification rages across the whole week. With classics specialists having a chance to show their strength one last time on the WorldTour calendar and several riders nearing peak form for the upcoming Vuelta, competition tends to be fierce, and the 2014 edition should continue the trend.

The Route

The first two stages take place on mostly flat profiles that aren’t likely to shake up the General Classification. Stage 3 is a short (9.6 km) time trial that certainly will; however, this is not the Eneco Tour of old. Strength against the clock will always be important in a weeklong race with a chrono stage and no real mountains, but there are enough challenges in this year’s Eneco Tour to make the fight for overall victory a much more drawn-out affair.

Stage 5: Geraardsbergen › Geraardsbergen (162.5 km) – It isn’t as long as De Ronde, but the Eneco Tour’s fifth stage visits many of the same challenging landmarks.

Stage 4 takes place in the same region as the spring’s Gent-Wevelgmen, traversing some of the same roads. Fittingly, the next stage will put the peloton through a number of difficult tests made famous by the Tour of Flanders. With two full climbs up the legendary Muur van Geraardsbergen before finishing there after 160 kilometers (with visits to other familiar Ronde climbs, like the Kruisberg and Bosberg, along the way), Stage 5 is a very difficult day that is certain to play a major role in the General Classification of the Eneco Tour.

Stage 6 offers no respite: with nonstop steep climbs all the way from start to finish, including multiple trips up and over La Redoute, one of the toughest challenges of April’s Liege-Bastogne-Liege, it will bring the punchy climbers to the fore. The seventh and final stage of the race is yet another day of nonstop climbing, as the Eneco Tour culminates with a visit to Amstel Gold Race country and many of the same short, steep climbs (though not the Cauberg) that feature in that event. While the weekend of familiar challenges won’t present the riders with any single stages nearing the length of the grueling spring classics, several consecutive very difficult days will guarantee some serious selection on the GC leaderboard.

The General Classification Contenders

Zdenek Stybar returns to the race as the defending champion, with the always impressive Omega Pharma-Quick Step squad backing his campaign for a repeat victory. Strong in the time trial, capable on the shorter climbs, and even handy in a sprint for bonus seconds, Stybar has the versatile toolset to compete, though this edition of the race is even harder than last year’s and uphill ability is at an even higher premium. However, the Czech star showed his climbing mettle in the 2013 Eneco Tour, putting in his best work on the very hilly stages, and he put his climbing form on display as recently as last weekend when he landed 10th the Clasica de San Sebastian. Still, while he put in Top 10 performances in both Milano-Sanremo and Paris-Roubaix in the spring, Stybar has not landed as many big results so far this season as might have been expected, and these climbs will really put him to the test. In short, it will be a challenge holding on to his title against some very dangerous rivals. OPQS does have plenty of strong, versatile lieutenants to put the pressure on from all angles, with the likes of Niki Terpstra and Matteo Trentin (among others) in attendance and capable of getting in to the mix on all kinds of different terrain.

2013 runner-up Tom Dumoulin is an elite time trialist who may lament the fact that the chrono stage is 3.6 kilometers shorter in this year’s race, but he’s also a strong climber who should appreciate the climbing challenges that await. 2nd to Tony Martin in Stage 20 ITT in the 2014 Tour de France, he’s on sharp form this summer. He’s also shown a bit more explosiveness this season, which will be a major asset here. His skillset puts him in an excellent position to better his result from last year. Hilly parcours specialist Simon Geschke will be an excellent second.

Sky’s Geraint Thomas has all the skills necessary to fight for the top step on the podium. He has not had much of a break from racing since winning the Bayern Rundfahrt at the beginning of June, but it’s hard to draw up a better parcours for a rider who combines cobblestone prowess with good climbing legs and a particular affinity for short time trials. If he can hold on to top form all the way through the race, he will be very hard to beat. Teammate Edvald Boasson Hagen is actually a two-time winner of the Eneco Tour, but the recent increased focus on uphill tests do not favor his toolset as much as past editions did, and he may be hunting stages and playing lieutenant in this year’s race. Ian Stannard has finally returned from his long break following a serious injury suffered in the spring, and Sky will be glad to see him back on the bike in the WorldTour’s return to the Low Countries.

BMC’s Philippe Gilbert was running well in the 2013 edition before a crash forced him to abandon the race. He’s been dealing with illness recently but his top-notch performance in the RideLondon Classic suggests that he’s back to full strength and ready to contest the 2014 edition of this race. He excels in the shorter time trials, and with the Ardennes-style final two stages, I like his chances to stand on the overall podium. As is standard operating procedure for such a powerhouse team, BMC has plenty of other options: Greg Van Avermaet showed excellent form with an 8th place finish in a very difficult Clasica de San Sebastian, and the sort of climbing chops required to land a good result in that race will be crucial for the last few stages of the Eneco Tour. New acquisition Rohan Dennis, a good climber with an elite time trial, could also try to get into the mix, and Steve Cummings, great in the short chronos, is yet another option, having a strong season so far.

Trek’s Fabian Cancellara is on the startlist after cutting his Tour de France campaign short to prepare for later season goals. Despite its classics-season feel, this has never been a race he’s targeted, and it’s hard to say where it ranks on his list of 2014 goals. As the sport’s most dominant classics rider right now, Cancellara will obviously be among the top favorites if he has the form and drive to hunt for the overall victory. It’s hard to see past him whenever the Muur van Geraardsbergen is involved. His classics prowess hasn’t extended into Ardennes results in his career, but he can usually handle some short climbs, and he’s obviously a top candidate in the time trial stage. Stijn Devolder is always a dangerous teammate.

Belkin’s Lars Boom has had a great deal of success in the Eneco Tour in the past, winning in 2012, but the parcours is no longer one that suits his style quite as well, and the last two stages will be a major challenge. Bauke Mollema may be the GC rider of choice here, given the back-to-back Ardennes-like stages that close out the race. 2nd in San Sebastian, he’s clearly carried some strong form out of the disappointing Tour de France, and his underrated sprinting ability will be a major asset in a race where bonus seconds often play a significant role in the GC results. Sep Vanmarcke is also on the startlist; the parcours is probably a bit bumpy for him, but he proved in the Tour de France that he doesn’t mind a few climbs. Garmin-Sharp has Ramunas Navardauskas and Sebastian Langeveld, the former very strong in a short time trial and on up-and-down profiles, the latter a proven classics talent who was 3rd in this race back in 2009. Lotto Belisol’s two-pronged attack of Jelle Vanendert and Tim Wellens will love the look of the final two stages and could surprise some people. Bjorn Leukemans of Wanty-Groupe Gobert has a knack for landing good results on this sort of terrain. OGE’s Jens Keukeleire is a rising classics talent who could be in the mix, while teammate Michael Hepburn will likely spend at least a little time near the top of the GC leaderboard given the early position of the time trial in the race. Peter Sagan initially seemed set to participate (and contend) in this race, but he is no longer on Cannondale’s roster to make the start; Moreno Moser looks to be the team’s main hope on this parcours.

The Stagehunters

In a race without any real mountains, so many riders who spend most of their stage-racing days hunting stage victories have a rare real shot at the General Classification (and are therefore among the many aforementioned potential overall protagonists), but there are still a few sprinting heavyweights and time trialing specialists yet to be mentioned who will be searching for individual wins in the Eneco Tour.

The list of strong sprinters includes Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel, FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni, Giant-Shimano’s Luka Mezgec, Lampre-Merida’s Sacha Modolo, and Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo as likely contenders for a bunch gallop. Tyler Farrar, who did not look great in the Tour of Poland but who tends perform well in the Low Countries, Matti Breschel, OGE’s Leigh Howard and Matt Goss, Movistar’s JJ Rojas and JJ Lobato, Barry Markus, Andrea Guardini, Bryan Coquard, and Tom Boonen could also feature in the sprints.

Plenty of strong chrono riders were already named as possible GC contenders, but watch out for Alex Dowsett, Patrick Gretsch, Jesse Sergeant, and David Millar in the ITT as well.

VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites

Winner: Tom Dumoulin
Podium: Zdenek Stybar, Philippe Gilbert
Other Top Contenders: Geraint Thomas, Greg Van Avermaet, Fabian Cancellara, Bauke Mollema, Ramunas Navardauskas, Rohan Dennis, Jelle Vandendert

As usual, I’ll be tweeting plenty of live analysis during the race, so follow @VeloHuman on Twitter to stay connected. Also, be sure to come back soon for more previews, interviews, and analysis: the Vuelta a España is right around the corner!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Susanne.

August 10, 2014
Tour de Pologne 2014 Preview

The Tour de Pologne is the first stage race that follows the Tour de France on the WorldTour calendar. Now in its seventy-first year, it tends to be an exciting and often unpredictable contest, as many riders are coming into the race following La Grande Boucle, hoping to maintain their form for one more week, while others are returning to competition after long midseason breaks, and are therefore in unknown condition. Pieter Weening was the surprise winner of the 2013 edition. Daniel Martin and Moreno Moster both picked up their first WorldTour victories here. Expect more of the unexpected in this year’s journey through Poland.

The Route

The Tour de Pologne opens with several days that aren’t likely to impact the General Classification: the fast men should reign supreme at the beginning of this week of racing. Stage 1 has a few small hills, but it’s not likely to see any significant separation and will probably end in a sprint. Stages 2 and 3 are almost guaranteed to come down to a bunch gallop, while Stage 4 at least closes out with a succession of small rollers to open the door for some moves (though a sprint is again a likelihood).

Stage 6: Bukovina Terma Hotel Spa › Bukowina Tatrzańska (174 km) – A constant barrage of tough climbs will guarantee fireworks on the penultimate stage of the race.

Stage 5 will be a jarring transition, with some early uphill challenges and then an arduous skyward trip to the Štrbské Pleso resort that is repeated not once, but twice, with the third and final ascent climbing higher than the first two to a summit finish line. Stage 6 is an even harder day of climbing, with almost no flat sections across 174 kilometers of racing.

Stage 7 (ITT): Kraków › Kraków (25 km) – The chrono that concludes the race will play a major part in deciding the final General Classification.

The seventh and final stage of the Tour of Poland is a 25 kilometer race against the clock that starts and finishes in Kraków. It’s a mostly flat affair that will really favor the powerful time trialing experts, and it’s likely to play an integral role in deciding the overall winner.

The General Classification Contenders

A few early hills, a pair of tough mountain stages, and a high-speed chrono make this a profile for the well-rounded riders. The the time trial, in particular, will have a big impact on the overall leaderboard: a 25 km ITT may not seem like much, but with only two real climbing stages to open up any serious gaps on GC, it will be a pivotal test for the contenders.

As unpredictable as the Tour de Pologne tends to be, Rafal Majka will enter the race as a top favorite. He’s a star climber who just won two stages and the King of the Mountains classification in the Tour de France, showcasing stellar form right now, but he has also developed considerably as a soloist this year, putting in a ride good for 4th in the Giro’s first (and less climber-friendly) ITT. With the motivation of performing in front of his home crowd, Majka has the tools to better the 4th overall he notched in the 2013 edition of this race.

The winner of that 2013 running of the Tour de Pologne, Pieter Weening, will be another likely protagonist in the GC battle. He’s had an up-and-down year, anonymous in some races but also winning a stage at the Giro d’Italia and the recent Giro della Toscana. When he is locked in, he’s a major talent, and this is a race in which he’s had a lot of success; in addition to his recent overall victory, he also has been 2nd overall and a stage winner in the past. Versatile Cameron Meyer will be a great teammate.

Movistar’s Ion Izagirre was runner-up in 2013 and looks to be on good form right now, having put in a strong ride in support of Alejandro Valverde in the Tour de France. The 25-year-old can deliver a nice time trial and while the high-gradient climbs can be a bit of a challenge for him, the uphill tests in this Tour de Pologne should be within his capabilities. Movistar also has Beñat Intxausti, who has shown immense talent in various races throughout his career (he was 8th in the Giro and outclimbed Rui Costa and Dan Martin to win the Tour of Beijing last year), but who has also been a nonfactor in plenty of races where he might have been expected to thrive. Eros Capecchi (6th in the 2013 Tour of Poland) and Andrey Amador are other options.

Sky’s Dario Cataldo will like the look of the profile. A strong time trialist who is also capable of powering up the less steep climbs quite nicely, he has the skillset to succeed here. Sky is desperate to find a shred of success right now and Cataldo is a tough competitor who came close to delivering results on a number of occasions in this year’s Giro. This could be his opportunity. Kanstantsin Siutsou, great in the ITT, and up-and-comer Sebastian Henao, great on the climbs, are other options.

Trek has a very strong squad for this race, with several potential GC contenders. It will be interesting to see how they play this: Bob Jungels should land a nice result on the final time trial, though the climbs will be a big challenge for him. Giro d’Italia King of the Mountains Julian Arredondo, on the other hand, shouldn’t have much trouble with those climbs, but he doesn’t have much ability against the clock. The same is true for Robert Kiserlovski, 10th overall in this year’s Giro. In other words, depending on how they decide to take on this race, Trek will have the firepower to light up the mountain stages, or to help support their more capable time trialist through them. Given all of the talent in the roster, it seems likely that they’ll have at least one rider in the mix for the Tour of Poland GC.

Wouter Poels of OPQS has an excellent skillset to contend. Known for punchy climbing ablility, he has developed into a good time trialist as well. He was 4th here in 2011 and has had a great year so far. Teammate Thomas De Gendt is another potential protagonist, with a top-notch time trial. He’s been an inconsistent rider on the climbs recently, sometimes showing great uphill form, sometimes struggling mightily, but if he can put together a pair of good days during the mountain stages, he could be in the mix.

Garmin-Sharp’s Ryder Hesjedal isn’t the rider he was in 2012 when he won the Giro, but he did land a decent 9th in that race this year, and followed that up with some strong riding in support of Andrew Talansky during the Dauphine. He hasn’t raced since, but this will be an important step in his Vuelta preparation. 23-year-old Nathan Brown, good against the clock and capable on climbs that aren’t too steep, could be a nice dark horse candidate.

Belkin’s Robert Gesink enters the race with unknown form, without many racing days in 2014 as a result of a heart condition that required surgery in the spring. A great all-round talent when at his best, he will be a rider to watch in this race. It’s hard to say how he’ll do: if the intense training he’s been doing out of competition has pulled him back into form, he’ll could contend here; on the other hand, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him fall off the pace early.

AG2R’s Christophe Riblon was on the podium of last year’s race, but he’s done very little so far in 2014. He did spend a lot of time putting in work for his teammates in the Tour de France, however, so it wouldn’t be a complete surprise to see him in the mix despite a lack of results this year: he’s obviously a great climber but he’s not bad in the ITT either. Astana’s Fabio Aru established himself as an elite uphill specialist in this year’s Giro d’Italia, but it will be a big ask for him to separate himself enough from the pack on the steep stuff to counteract the inevitable losses in a mostly flat ITT. Janez Brajkovic could be a nice alternative for the team. The chrono will be a major obstacle for Giant-Shimano’s Warren Barguil, but he’s a great climber who should be starting to round into form for the Vuelta. BMC has a very strong nice three-pronged attack in Steve Cummings, Samuel Sanchez, and Peter Velits. Lotto Belisol’s Maxime Monfort, Cannondale’s Davide Formolo, Damiano Caruso, and Moreno Moser, FDJ’s Alexandre Geniez, Lampre-Merida’s Przemyslaw Niemiec (who will try to get something out of this season in his home race after a crash doomed his Giro hopes), RusVelo’s Ilnur Zakarin, and CCC Polsat Polkowice’s Davide Rebellin are other outsiders who could be looking to land a GC result.

The Stagehunters

With several stages likely to end in sprints, the fast men will feature prominently in this race. Lampre’s Sacha Modolo looks to be the class of the bunch (with teammate Roberto Ferrari as a nice alternative), while Belkin’s Theo Bos, Giant-Shimano’s Luka Mezgec, OGE’s Michael Matthews, Movistar’s Juan Jose Lobato, Sky’s Ben Swift (and Edvald Boasson Hagen), and Garmin-Sharp’s Tyler Farrar will be other top contenders in the sprints. AG2R’s Yauheni Hutarovich and Davide Appollonio, BMC’s Thor Hushovd, OPQS’s Nikolas Maes, and Astana’s Francesco Gavazzi will also hope to be in the mix for the bunch finishes.

In addition to the many strong time trialists already mentioned as potential GC contenders, there will be several other chrono specialists in attendance, with Movistar’s Adriano Malori the top name on the list. OGE’s Brett Lancaster, Belkin’s Jack Bobridge, and Giant-Shimano’s Tobias Ludviggson are others with the potential to deliver against the clock.

VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites

Winner: Rafal Majka
Podium: Pieter Weening, Dario Cataldo
Other Top Contenders: Ion Izagirre, Wout Poels, Bob Jungels, Christophe Riblon, Ryder Hesjedal, Robert Gesink, Fabio Aru

As usual, VH will be tweeting plenty of live analysis during the race, so follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more. Also, be sure to check back in a few days for the preview of the Eneco Tour!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Piotr Drabik.

August 2, 2014
Clasica Ciclista San Sebastian 2014 Preview

For many of the biggest names in pro cycling, the Clasica de San Sebastian (or, the Donostiako Klasikoa in the Basque language) is the opening race of the post-Tour season, and with a hilly profile that always encourages attacks, it kicks off the stretch of late summer races in style. Tony Gallopin won last year’s edition ahead of some impressive competition, with most of the race’s top contenders having just completed the Tour. The 2014 edition again has an impressive startlist, again largely composed of riders fresh off of Tour de France campaigns, but with a collection of other likely protagonists who skipped this year’s running of La Grande Boucle.

The Route

The San Sebastian parcours has gotten harder and harder in recent years, as race organizers look for ways to liven up the event. This year’s route contains many of the familiar challenges of past runnings of the race, but also an addition that could play a major role in deciding the winner.

The race starts and finishes in the coastal town of San Sebastian, making a large loop and a few repeated twists and turns through the Basque countryside on the way from beginning to end. It’s a long trip at 219.2 total kilometers, and there are plenty of uphill tests on the menu.

The harder climbs of the San Sebastian are categorized, and there are six such challenges on the route of the 2014 edition, with most coming after 100 kilometers of racing (though the Category 1 Iturburu climb, crested around kilometer 60, is no slouch). A bit before the peloton reaches kilometer 120, the road kicks upward for the next major test, the climb that has become a staple of this race: the Jaizkibel. It’s another Category 1 ascent, roughly 8 kilometers in length at an average gradient well over 5%. After a testy descent, it’s not long before the riders reach the Cat. 2 Arkale, a short but steep climb and the third categorized test of the day. From the top of the Arkale, the pack will make a downhill trip right back to the foot of the Jaizkibel, where they’ll take on both the Jaizkibel and then the Arkale for a second time. This repeat journey is followed by the final run-in to finish line, with one final challenge in the way: the most significant alteration made to this route, the Bordako Tontorra climb to Igeldo, a short but steep Cat. 2 crested just over 7 kilometers from the finish. It’s less than 3 kilometers long but with an average gradient nearing 10% and sections in the 20% range, it’s a serious challenge that will be provide the punchy climbers with an excellent launching pad, especially given the high-speed descent that follows, leaving little room for much regrouping before the finish line at 219.2 kilometers is reached.

A long route, plenty of hills, occasional road furniture, and the ever-present threat of bad weather that exists in this area make the Clasica de San Sebastian truly worthy of its “Classic” title. This will be a hard-fought battle, where attrition will take its toll as aggressive all-rounder types take every opportunity to push the pace on the climbs.

The Contenders

The parcours opens a variety of possible scenarios, making it very hard to predict how things will play out: this race could be decided with a long-range attack, it could come down to a rider or a small group of riders escaping in the tough final kilometers (I see this as the most likely outcome), or it could even come down to a sprint among a reduced field. All things considered, this a hilly classic that tends to favor riders who specialize in riding hilly classics. Grit to handle the length of the journey and the possible bad conditions, punchy climbing legs for the obvious uphill challenges on the profile, and soloing ability to make or bridge over to attacks are prerequisites for success here, with a fast finish another useful tool to have should a small group arrive at the line together. A startlist filled with climbing powerhouses, Ardennes Classics protagonists, and versatile fast men reflects the importance of all these traits.

Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde is a dangerous rider in hilly one-day races which is probably why he has had so much success here in the past—he won in 2008, and was runner-up in last year’s edition. The late climb added to this year’s parcours suits him perfectly, and will make his ability to charge uphill even more valuable. While he is coming off of a relatively disappointing Tour de France campaign, unable to manage a podium result despite the absence of Chris Froome and Alberto Contador, there is still plenty to be said for being on good enough form to be 4th in the Tour de France, and this race fits his talents quite well, making him a top favorite for the win. Movistar has several other strong riders on this startlist too, with climbing specialist Igor Anton, fast-finishing JJ Rojas, and well-rounded Giovanni Visconti all potential protagonists themselves.

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan may inspire Movistar to repeat their strategy of 2013 (setting a vicious pace over the climbs to wear down the less climbing-oriented fast finishers in the bunch). There are a few versatile sprinter-types in this race, but none will inspire as much fear as the Tour’s green jersey winner, who can handle some tough climbs and who isn’t afraid to launch an attack if he sees an opportunity. The 2014 San Sebastian profile will really put his uphill ability to the test, however; the addition of a Cat. 2 in the final 10 km makes an already difficult-to-control race even harder to control, reducing the likelihood of a sprint finale. If Sagan is forced to hang on for the last ascent alone with a select few climbing specialists, he may struggle. If he is near the front of the lead group on the slope of the final climb, he has a great shot at winning. Sagan presents every other fast finisher hoping for a sprint with a major conundrum: if any quick man in San Sebastian can make it to the line, Sagan probably can, too, and he’s a hard rider to beat. Any team with sprinting aspirations will hope to isolate him while putting their own man in the best possible position as the day nears its conclusion. Meanwhile, Alessandro De Marchi is a very strong climber who could act as an alternative should Sagan falter.

Tony Gallopin came into last year’s race somewhat under the radar, a 25-year-old who, though talented, had not not landed too many big results in his career up to that point. As the returning champion and a recent Tour stage winner and yellow jersey wearer, Gallopin won’t have that luxury any more, but he’ll still be a strong option. He has been delivering nice results all year, growing as a climber and as a consistent threat in the tough one-day races. He can sprint if need be, but he’s more than capable of escaping from a pack if he feels the need to distance faster finishers. Ardennes specialist Jelle Vanendert makes for a terrific teammate who can put pressure on Lotto’s rivals on the steep stuff, while Tim Wellens is having an excellent year and should thrive on this profile. He came close to a stage win in the Tour de Wallonie, putting in a late attack on the final day that was only swallowed up in the final few kilometers, and that aggressive style will serve his squad well here. Lotto is well-staffed to defend their title in this race.

As is usually the case in a race with a hilly profile, Orica-GreenEdge should be in the mix with quite a collection of potential protagonists, with Simon Gerrans as a strong team leader capable of winning in a variety of scenarios. The final climb is very steep, but Gerrans has put in some great performance on high gradients so far this year, and if he can follow the inevitable attacks in the last few kilometers, he’ll be difficult to beat at the line. Michael Albasini will play the role of dangerous second. Simon and Adam Yates and Jens Keukeleire are other alternatives who can handle climbs and a long day of racing.

BMC has a lot of firepower for the Clasica de San Sebastian. Philippe Gilbert won here in 2011, and assuming he has recovered from a recent bout of illness, he’s on good form right now and will love this profile, especially given the new climb added at the tail end of the day. Few can launch an uphill attack with the potency of Philippe Gilbert, and should anyone stick with the former World Champ if he does make a move late, he has a nice sprint, to boot. Greg Van Avermaet is another well-rounded option who is likely to try for a long-distance strike, while Tejay van Garderen offers impressive climbing chops should any of the real mountain specialists try to turn this into a battle of true climbers. Silvan Dillier is yet another versatile talent for the team.

OPQS is also a team with plenty of firepower (this almost goes without saying, given the amount of talent this team has for one-day races). Zdenek Stybar has not racked up too many major results lately outside of his national championships, but he has the skillset to be in the mix in a classics-style race. Jan Bakelants is another option. The very capable Gianni Meersman will hope to hang on for a sprint. It won’t be easy, but he packs one of the most impressive sprinting and climbing combos in the sport, and, like Peter Sagan, he’ll have a better chance than most fast men of surviving all the way to the line. Even young Julian Alaphilippe, an up-and-comer with a well-rounded skillset, could be in the mix.

Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas is fresh off a Tour de France stage win in which he put his aggressive stlye on display, but he’s also got a very fast finish in case he reaches the line with company. The climbs in this race will put him to the limit, though, especially that last one. If he can’t hold on, Garmin has other impressive options in Daniel Martin and Tom-Jelte Slagter, who will look to break the race open on the steep stuff. Martin appears to be recovered from his Giro crash, and this is an excellent profile for him. If he’s back on form, he will be a strong contender for victory here. Slagter has cooled somewhat since his hot start to the year but the parcours suits his well-rounded skillset very well, and if he can find some form by the start time, he’ll be a dangerous rider.

Daniel Moreno and Joaquim Rodriguez always make for a potent dynamic duo when short, steep ascents are on the menu. Moreno has not raced for weeks, while Rodriguez did not look to be back at his best yet during the Tour, making both of them question marks, but on-form, they both have what it take to put up a serious fight for the win, with Alexandr Kolobnev and Yuri Trofimov candidates mix it up as well.

Several teams look to be going all-in for strong GC-style climbers, hoping for a selective race with all of the uphill challenges. In Romain Bardet, AG2R has a dangerous option should the tough climbs wear down the weaker climbers. Bardet may not be well-known for his one-day racing prowess, but was an impressive 10th in Liege-Bastogne-Liege this year. He will be a top option if the puncheurs and sprinters start to lose ground, but he’ll need this to be a particularly difficult race if he wants any shot at victory. He’ll have help making the climbs as difficult as possible from a few other squads. Belkin brings Bauke Mollema and Laurens Ten Dam. Ten Dam seems to be equal or maybe even better form right now, but Mollema has the fast finish and explosive uphill charging ability to make him a strong contender on this parcours. This is also a nice profile for Nick van der Lijke, though he’ll be recovering from a crash sustained in the final stage of the Tour de Wallonie. Tinkoff-Saxo is another team built around strong GC-style climbing talent in Nicolas Roche and Michael Rogers. Roche was 5th here last year. Trek is also heavily climber-oriented, with Haimar Zubeldia (on great form right now) and Frank Schleck in attendance. Sky’s Mikel Nieve was an impressive 4th in this race in 2013 and David Lopez is a strong alternative; both could thrive if enough teams organize an effort to make this a hard race.

Astana sends a number of riders fresh from lieutenancy roles at the Tour, including Lieuwe Westra and Tanel Kangert, as well as strong climber Mikel Landa (6th last year) and hilly classics specialist Maxim Iglinskiy. Giant-Shimano has a well-rounded talent for this race in Simon Geschke, who may not have the palmares of Philippe Gilbert or Alejandro Valverde, but who could be a strong outsider with this parcours. Lawson Craddock and Chad Haga are options to try to go from afar. Europcar has Pierre Rolland, Cyril Gautier, and Thomas Voeckler to liven up the race on the ascents, while FDJ also has options in Arthur Vichot, Arnold Jeannesson, Anthony Roux, and Kenny Elissonde.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Alejandro Valverde
Podium: Philippe Gilbert, Simon Gerrans
Other Top Contenders: Romain Bardet, Daniel Martin, Peter Sagan, Daniel Moreno, Joaquim Rodriguez, Tony Gallopin, Bauke Mollema

As usual, I’ll be tweeting plenty of live analysis during the race, so follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more! Also, be sure to check back Saturday for the preview of the Tour de Pologne.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Luken.

August 1, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 21 Preview

Stage 21: Évry › Paris – 137.5 km

With the time trial done and dusted (and won, unsurprisingly, by Tony Martin), only the Champs-Élysées finale remains in the 2014 Tour de France. Just 137.5 kilometers in length and quite flat, Stage 21 starts out in parade-like fashion, with champagne toasts and photo opportunities, and the pace remains pleasant until the peloton reaches Paris, when things start to speed up as the riders enter a 7 kilometer finishing circuit and begin an eight-lap journey to the end of the Tour de France. A few aggressive riders will attempt to break away from the pack on the circuit, but as the eighth lap and the final crossing of the line on the Champs-Élysées get closer and closer, the sprint teams will ramp up the pace, making it virtually impossible to stay away. Victory in the final stage of the Tour de France is one of the most prestigious prizes in the sport, and it’s rare that anything stands in the way of a sprinters’ battle royale on the Champs-Élysées.

Marcel Kittel of Giant-Shimano won the Champs-Élysées finale of last year’s race, and he is in the hunt for his fourth stage win at this year’s Tour de France. All three of his victories so far came very early in the race, as he did struggle a bit on some of the tougher stages after the first week, but Stage 21 doesn’t have the sort of profile that is likely to take much out of the massive German sprinter. Kittel has established himself as a dominant force in tests of pure speed, and he will be the rider to beat on the Champs-Élysées.

Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel does have a stage win under his belt in this year’s Tour, but he will be hungry for another here. In a drag race, few can match Marcel Kittel, but Greipel is probably the rider with the best chance of doing so. He has not done the best job of positioning himself in the many sprint stages of this race so far, but he has a strong support train and this is not a stage with too many obstacles for the powerhouse fast men to overcome on their way to the final few hundred meters. If he can nail the run-in, Greipel can challenge for victory on Stage 21.

Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff typically prefers fast finishes that follow hard days in the saddle, but he’s also got plenty of pure sprinting ability. He’s looked particularly strong in this race, benefitting from a team that is more focused on his success than they usually are. 6th on the final stage of the 2013 edition of the Tour, he could contend for the win on the Champs-Élysées this year.

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan will have one last chance at a stage victory in the 2014 Tour de France here in Paris. He doesn’t have the top speed of Marcel Kittel, but he was runner-up to Mark Cavendish in the final stage of the 2012 Tour, and given his talent and tendency to position himself well for the charge to the line, he can never be counted out.

OPQS’s Mark Renshaw knows how to deliver a result on the Champs-Élysées, even though in the past his biggest successes have been all about providing an excellent leadout to someone else. This year, he’ll have a rare chance to be the featured rider on the final stage of the Tour, and he’s shown impressive speed in this race so far. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare has struggled to make it to the finish with the lead group in many of the sprint days in this race, but the journey to the line is quite short on this stage. If he’s there in the final few hundred meters, he could be in the mix. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard has racked up quite a few Top 10s so far in the Tour, and as a star of the track, he’ll enjoy the chance for a drag race to the line.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati, Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas, OGE’s Michael Albasini, and AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin are outsiders who could land strong results on Stage 21, while Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb will be ready to step up for his team as a quality alternative should anything happen to Marcel Kittel.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Andre Greipel | 3. Alexander Kristoff

As Stage 21 is the final stage of the race, this is the last VeloHuman preview of the 2014 Tour de France. I’ve had a blast previewing every day of racing, and I have particularly enjoyed hearing from those of you who have reached out to talk racing, to ask for an opinion on your favorite long shot, or just to say hello! I hope you’ll continue to stay connected by following @VeloHuman on Twitter and by checking out the brand new VeloHuman Facebook page.

Lastly, an important note: while the Tour may be reaching its conclusion, VeloHuman is nowhere near done for the year! There are still rider interviews to come and plenty of favorites and outsiders to be named for races like the Vuelta a España, Il Lombardia, and the World Championship Road Race, so even after the last rider crosses the finish line on the Champs-Élysées, stay tuned for a whole lot more in 2014.

-Dane Cash

July 26, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 20 Preview

Stage 20 (ITT): Bergerac › Périgueux – 54 km

Following the victory of Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas on Stage 19, there are only two days of racing left in the 2014 Tour de France. Stage 20 is the Tour’s only time trial. A chrono in the penultimate stage of the race might have been an epic final battle for the yellow jersey, but Vincenzo Nibali has that pretty much wrapped up. The remaining steps on the podium, however, are still in play, and a fierce fight will rage between three riders for those two spots. Stage honors are obviously up for grabs as well.

At 54 kilometers, this is quite a long time trial. The stage has a rolling profile from start to finish, but there are no categorized climbs on the docket; these are not challenging ascents, and they won’t offer much solace to the climbing specialists. The intermittent descents will be taken at pretty high speed, but the route is not terribly technical, which most of the riders will appreciate given a possibility for a bit of rain.

It’s the sort of time trial that favors the high-endurance riders, and one stands head and shoulders above the rest in this race. Reigning ITT World Champ Tony Martin will be the big favorite for the stage. He’s obviously a massive talent, but he’s also in stellar shape right now. On this long course, one tailored towards the real power specialists, it would be a big surprise for anyone to outmatch the German on Stage 20.

Tom Dumoulin is a great young talent, yet another rising star on the Giant-Shimano roster. The 2014 Dutch National Champion can handle a roller or two, making this a nice route for him. He was 2nd to Tony Martin in both time trials in this year’s Tour de Suisse. This chrono is a bit longer than those in which he’s been most successful in the past, but in the absence of many other top specialists against the clock, he’s a contender behind the heavy favorite, Tony Martin.

It’s been some time since Tejay van Garderen has put in a truly stellar time trial, but this has typically been a strong suit of his, and he looks to be on good form now. He should be able to land a top result.

Jean-Christophe Peraud has always been great against the clock, and in the shape he’s in at the moment, he will be another favorite among the GC contenders. Crashing during a rainy time trial ruined his 2013 Tour campaign; hopefully he can overcome that challenge this year.

Vincenzo Nibali has had a lot of success in time trials recently, and the way he’s been riding in this Tour, he’s likely to continue that run of great results. It’s a nice course for him, with a few hills and a chance to shine on the descents. He has shown a desire to assert his dominance at every possible opportunity in the Tour de France, and I don’t think he’ll make an exception on Stage 20.

Michal Kwiatkowski of OPQS is not showing the sort of form in this Tour that he displayed early in the season, but in a time trial, all he needs is one good hour in the saddle. At his best he’s an elite chrono talent. The profile suits him perfectly, and he won’t mind a bit of rain either.

Sylvain Chavanel of IAM Cycling has not had a great year but he is the reigning French National Champ in the discipline. This stage is a big target for him. OPQS’s Niki Terpstra, OGE’s Svein Tuft and Luke Durbridge, Sky’s Richie Porte, Geraint Thomas, and Vasil Kiryienka, Astana’s Lieuwe Westra and Tanel Kangert, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Michael Rogers, NetApp-Endura’s Jan Barta, and Movistar’s Ion Izagirre are others who could put in strong rides on Stage 20.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot is not known for his time trialing skills, but he’s been strong against the clock this year, and on this form (and with the benefit of being able to gauge his efforts against almost every other rider, courtesy of starting late in the day) he could surprise some people. Alejandro Valverde, Spain’s National Champ in the ITT, is a good chrono rider, but he can’t afford to underestimate Pinot’s ability if he wants to stand on the podium in Paris.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Tony Martin | 2. Vincenzo Nibali | 3. Tom Dumoulin

There are only two stages left in this year’s Tour de France, but be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live analysis of both of them, and of every WorldTour race left on the calendar. Also, check out VeloHuman’s brand new Facebook page to stay up-to-date with every post. The next preview will be up following the conclusion of Stage 20.

Lastly, an important note: while the Tour may be nearing its conclusion, VeloHuman is nowhere near done for the year! There are still rider interviews to come and plenty of favorites and outsiders to be named for races like the Vuelta a España, Il Lombardia, and the World Championship Road Race, so even after the last rider crosses the finish line on the Champs-Élysées, stay tuned for a whole lot more in 2014.

-Dane Cash

July 25, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 19 Preview

Stage 19: Maubourguet Pays du Val d’Adour › Bergerac – 208.5 km

Vincenzo Nibali closed out the final high mountain stage of the Tour de France with his fourth stage win, and now the peloton heads to flatter roads. At first glance, Stage 19 looks certain to be one for the sprinting heavyweights, with a mostly flat profile from start to finish. However, there could be a few complicating factors. For one, 208.5 kilometers of racing is no walk in the park. A long day, especially after some very intense climbing, could lead to some pained legs. At the end of this lengthy journey, the peloton must get over a few uncategorized bumps and then a Category 4 climb that comes about 13 km from the finish. It’s short at only 1.3 kilometers, but steep, with an average gradient of 7.6%. And, while the last few kilometers are flat, there are some twists and turns approaching the finish line. On top of these challenges, there is a chance of rain in the forecast, which always adds an element of uncertainty to the equation.

On this profile, the sprinters’ teams should be able to control the race on Stage 19, and with a bunch gallop the likeliest outcome, Marcel Kittel, the fastest fast man in the Tour, has to be a top favorite. Giant-Shimano came here to win on the flats, and the entire team will be working to put Kittel in position to win a sprint finale. In a straight-up drag race, he’s pretty much unbeatable. As we saw on Stage 15, however, a combination of factors like distance and weather can take its toll on the heavy German. The Cat. 4 comes far enough from the finish that it shouldn’t cause too many problems for Kittel, but if the teams of the more versatile sprinters set a hard pace over the ascent and drive it all the way to the tricky final few kilometers, it’s possible that Kittel could have trouble getting into position for the charge to the line. GSH has a great backup plan in John Degenkolb, who has looked sharp in the past few sprint stages, and who is less likely to be troubled by the bumps in the road.

Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel is a bit more capable of coping with the harder days than Marcel Kittel, and at his best, he has a finishing kick few can match. Still, his endurance will be put to the test if teams like Cannondale and Katusha decide to go full gas as the day nears its conclusion. Greipel does have the support of a strong leadout, which will be crucial for the technical run-in to the line.

Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff took a strong second victory on Stage 15, which, though it was bit longer, shared similarities with this stage, a lengthy journey coming after some tough days in the mountains. Kristoff thrives in nasty weather, and his pair of wins in this Tour have put his impressive top speed on display. Stage 19 will be a good opportunity for him to pick up a third victory.

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan has come so close so many times in this Tour de France, but he has yet to pick up the win he’s been hunting. The likely sprint finale on the Champs-Élysées, which will come at the end of a much easier day in the saddle, will be less favorable to Sagan; this is the better opportunity to get that victory. Like Kristoff, he’ll hope for the hardest race possible. He is very adept at navigating challenging corners, and that gives him an edge in the final few kilometers of the race.

Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati, Orica-GreenEdge’s Michael Albasini, Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas, and FDJ’s Arnaud Demare are other fast men with the potential to get involved. Mark Renshaw has placed well in the sprints so far, though OPQS could favor the chances of Matteo Trentin here; it’s also possible they’ll try to send Jan Bakelants, Michal Kwiatkowski, Niki Terpstra, or Tony Martin up the road and hope the tricky finale makes for a difficult chase. After so many tough mountains stages and with a crucial time trial on the menu for the GC men, it’s not completely out of the question that a well-planned move might be able to hold out here on Stage 19. Greg Van Avermaet, Tony Gallopin, Tommy Voeckler, Jens Keukeleire, and Sylvain Chavanel are other strong riders who might have this sort of tactic in mind.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Andre Greipel | 3. Alexander Kristoff

There are only a few stages left in the 2014 Tour de France, but be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live analysis of every one of them. Also check out VeloHuman’s brand new Facebook page to stay up-to-date with every post. The next preview will be up following the conclusion of Stage 19.

Lastly, an important note: while the Tour may be nearing its conclusion, VeloHuman is nowhere near done for the year! There are still rider interviews to come and plenty of favorites and outsiders to be named for races like the Vuelta a España, Il Lombardia, and the World Championship Road Race, so even after the last rider crosses the finish line on the Champs-Élysées, stay tuned for a whole lot more in 2014.

-Dane Cash

July 24, 2014