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Tour de France 2014: Stage 18 Preview

Stage 18: Pau › Hautacam – 145.5 km

After Rafal Majka’s victorious charge up the Pla d’Adet climb, only one mountain stage remains in the 2014 Tour de France. It’s another very short stage at only 145.5 kilometers, but the profile is daunting. Following a mostly flat first half with only a pair of short Cat. 3s to challenge them, the peloton will reach the foot of one of cycling’s most iconic climbs: the Col du Tourmalet. 17.1 kilometers at 7.3%, the Tourmalet is a mammoth ascent with nowhere to hide, especially after the first 5 kilometers, when things really kick upward (above 8%) and stay there for most of the remainder of the climb. The unforgiving slopes of the Tourmalet will blow the pack apart, but the summit is crested with 50 km still remaining on the stage; from there, it’s a very long, high-speed descent to the bottom of the Hautacam climb. 13.6 kilometers at a 7.8% average gradient, Hautacam has a particularly nasty midsection, with a lengthy stretch above 11%, the perfect launching pad for anyone hoping to put in one last mountain attack in this Tour de France.

Stage 18 is the final chance for the climbers to make their mark on this race. To this point, the hard mountain stages have been dominated by a select group of riders; Vincenzo Nibali and Tinkoff-Saxo have left little glory for the other uphill specialists in the Tour. Hopefully, this last opportunity for glory will provide some very exciting racing. The pack will move at a high speed on such a short stage, and the fight to get out front early will be fierce. The breakaway will have a shot at staying ahead all day, but only if it is composed of some real uphill strength; the GC contenders will most likely set a furious pace up these climbs.

The top favorite for victory on the final Hors Categorie climb of the Tour de France is the race’s best climber, Vincenzo Nibali. He already has three wins to his name, but taking a fourth victory on the last mountain stage of the Tour, and possibly even the polka dot jersey, would really accentuate his utter dominance of this race. He wants the 2014 Tour de France to be remembered as Vincenzo Nibali’s race, not as the race won by Nibali after the abandonment of Chris Froome and Alberto Contador. With a flat day on the horizon and such a comfortable lead, there isn’t much reason not to go full gas on Stage 18, and if the GC men sweep up the day’s break before the Hautacam summit finish, Nibali will obviously be the one to beat for stage honors.

AG2R’s Jean-Christophe Peraud has made his mark over the last few stages as one of the only riders capable of holding Nibali’s wheel when the road goes up. He has an excellent team around him, and he’s just 8 seconds off the podium. Given his strong time trialing ability, 2nd overall may be within his reach. He will be highly motivated, and the day’s two long climbs suit him well. If the GC riders are at the head of the race as the end of the day nears, and if Peraud sees a chance at the stage win, he’s going to go for it: he has had a lot of success in the last few years, notching several high placings in big races, but he’s never actually won a race at the WorldTour level. He’s on the form of his life right now, and this could be his best chance to take that win. I also expect his teammate Romain Bardet to be aggressive on Stage 18, with the fight for the young rider’s classification so close right now. He hasn’t looked as strong as Peraud these past few days, but anything can happen on this final opportunity for the climbers to make their mark.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot is Bardet’s main rival for the white jersey. He is also holding onto a very tenuous podium position at the moment. His descending woes appear to be behind him, which is important given the long descent from the summit of the Tourmalet, but he’ll need to put in a top-notch performance going uphill as well if he wants to keep his spot in the Top 3. He is in excellent shape right now and another good day seems likely. Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde is in a similar position: his 2nd overall is threated by a charging Jean-Christophe Peraud, and he’ll need to be at the top of his game to stay where he is on the leaderboard. He struggled on the early slopes of the Pla d’Adet climb, but recovered nicely to finish with Pinot’s group. Unlike those challenging him for his spot on the podium, Valverde has a lot of experience protecting a Top 3 overall position on the final climbs of a Grand Tour. He also has a stellar support squad. If he draws on all of that experience and all of that support, he could be in for a strong day.

BMC’s Tejay van Garderen put in a much stronger performance on Stage 17 than he had on the stage prior, and with that bad day behind him he can look for another nice result here; he’s been a bit more aggressive on the climbs this year than we’ve seen in the past. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema and Laurens Ten Dam both looked okay on the Pla d’Adet and despite being 7th and 8th overall, respectively, they could have some freedom to get up the road given the huge time gap between themselves and those higher up the leaderboard. The same is true for Leopold Konig, in 9th, who, despite having a bad day on Stage 17, has otherwise looked very impressive on the climbs in this Tour de France. In 10th but well out of contention time-wise, Pierre Rolland is nonthreatening enough that he may even be allowed into the early move again. He will be coming off a long day spent out front already, but he’s recovered from tough mountain stages a bit better than you might expect for a rider who has already taken on the Giro this year, and his aggressive style and experience will come in handy on these climbs.

The success or failure of the breakaway will depend largely on the caliber of climbers in the move. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka is one of the highest caliber climbers in the race, but it’s hard to say whether he’ll try to get out front early here. He took the stage victory and a massive collection of KOM points at the summit of the Pla d’Adet, but unfortunately for his polka dot ambitions, Vincenzo Nibali wasn’t far behind, and the race leader is still well within striking distance of the KOM jersey that Majka currently wears. The young Polish climber will need to play Stage 18 just right to keep that jersey. He could get into the break, but having already spent a long day up the road, it’s a lot to ask to go for more long-distance success here; he put in a nice performance on the Chamrousse climb with a late attack after sticking in the pack, and that will be an option on Stage 18 as well. Whatever he decides, Majka will be again be a favorite for stage honors. If Majka doesn’t go up the road, Tinkoff-Saxo may send Michael Rogers in search of a second stage win. When so many familiar breakaway protagonists tried for the long-distance strike on Stage 17, Rogers hung with the pack, and with the energy he saved there, he’s one of the few who might have a chance at winning Stage 18 from afar. Nicolas Roche, who had such a strong ride up the Pla d’Adet, is another long-range option for Tinkoff-Saxo.

Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez saw his KOM hopes take a huge hit on the Pla d’Adet, where it was all too clear that he’s still not at his best. However, he has shown enough ability to be considered a dangerous contender if he can get into the breakaway. Even well off his peak form, Purito’s experience alone is enough to keep him in the conversation. More than most, he knows how to win mountain stages in Grand Tours, and as hard as it will be to win this stage with a long-distance strike, Joaquim Rodriguez can’t be counted out. Yuri Trofimov is another option for Katusha.

Sky’s Mikel Nieve spent most of Stage 17 in the bunch and he could be in the hunt from the breakaway on Stage 18, with Geraint Thomas, Richie Porte, and David Lopez as early move alternatives for the team. Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler is another potential long-range protagonist who will be coming off a quiet day. Christophe Riblon, Brice Feillu, Jose Serpa, Chris Horner, Jurgen Van Den Broeck (now almost three minutes outside the Top 10), Alessandro De Marchi, Giovanni Visconti, Steven Kruijswijk, Beñat Intxausti, Ion Izagirre, Frank Schleck, and Haimar Zubeldia are others who might have a chance at stage glory if they launch from afar.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Vincenzo Nibali | 2. Jean-Christophe Peraud | 3. Rafal Majka

There are only a few stages left in the 2014 Tour de France, but be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live analysis of every one of them. Also check out VeloHuman’s brand new Facebook page to stay up-to-date with every post. The next preview will be up following the conclusion of Stage 18.

Lastly, an important note: while the Tour may be nearing its conclusion, VeloHuman is nowhere near done for the year! There are still rider interviews to come and plenty of favorites and outsiders to be named for races like the Vuelta a España, Il Lombardia, and the World Championship Road Race, so even after the last rider crosses the finish line on the Champs-Élysées, stay tuned for a whole lot more in 2014.

-Dane Cash

July 23, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 17 Preview

Stage 17: Saint-Gaudens › Saint-Lary Pla d’Adet – 124.5 km

A hard first day in the Pyrenees (won by VeloHuman’s top Stage Favorite, Michael Rogers) dealt serious blows to the podium hopes of a number of riders in this race, but things won’t get any easier on Stage 17. The steak knife-esque profile throws three Category 1 climbs (the second one is particularly brutal, 13.2 km at a 7% gradient) and some tricky descents at the peloton before culiminating in an HC-rated finale, a 10.2 kilometer, 8.3% ascent to Pla d’Adet. The early slopes of this last climb are particularly harsh, with sections hovering around 10%. Overall, Stage 17 is a short one at only 124.5 kilometers, but there will be more than enough challenges on the menu to wear down even the climbing specialists.

At least in terms of stage glory, it could be another day for the breakaway. There is still one more brutal day in the Pyrenees to come, and the GC types may not be that interested in doing any chasing if a big group gets up the road. A constantly up-and-down profile and some positively serpentine roads in the second half of the day will further help the cause of those in the early move. Still, the final climb will be a very harsh test, and even if the survivors of the break have a nice gap at the foot of it, it will be a challenge holding on to the top. Whatever the scenario, an abundance of uphill power will be a prerequisite for success on Stage 17.

With three Cat. 1s and an HC-rated summit finish up for grabs, this stage will be pivotal for those hunting the polka dot jersey. Rafal Majka and Joaquim Rodriguez cannot afford to miss the breakaway. Both kept their powder dry on the very long road to Bagnères-de-Luchon, knowing that this battleground was ahead. Majka proved to be the strongest on Stage 14 and generally looks to be more on-form rider at the moment. He is a true all-round talent, with the uphill ability to handle the steep stuff, the endurance to spend the day out front, and a decent kick, too. Still, Purito is improving every day, and the irregular slope of the final climb is just the sort of challenge he enjoys when he is at his best. Should Majka and Rodriguez both be there at the end of the day, we should be in for an entertaining spectacle. Tinkoff-Saxo has an in-form Nicolas Roche and an obviously strong Michael Rogers as other long-range options, while Katusha could try to put Simon Spilak or Yuri Trofimov up the road as well.

Sky has a lot of options for an attempt at breakaway success: Mikel Nieve is a terrific climber who could attempt the long one here, with David Lopez, Vasil Kiryienka, and Geraint Thomas as nice alternatives. As much of an uphill talent as he is when he’s at his best, Richie Porte at least deserves a mention, in case he recovers from his ailments enough to give this a go. Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi has put in some brave long-distance efforts so far and this will be another opportunity to get out front. Lampre-Merida’s Chris Horner is free to go on the move now that Rui Costa is out of the race. It’s hard to say where he is right now in terms of form, but on peak ability he’s obviously a very dangerous rider. Teammate Jose Serpa could also try to get involved in the break, having flashed some nice form on Stage 16. Europcar had a very disappointing first day in the Pyrenees, missing out on the victory despite having two riders in the lead group on the road in the last 10 kilometers, and also seeing Pierre Rolland tumble out of the Top 10 on GC. It’s almost a certainty that they will try to get into the early move on Stage 17, with Rolland now far enough down on the overall leaderboard that he may be given some room. Cyril Gautier and Tommy Voeckler will find this profile to be very challenging but they may give it a shot anyway. Lotto’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck and Trek’s Frank Schleck both lost a lot of time on Stage 16 and could also hope to get up the road to pull back into contention for the GC Top 10. Brice Feillu, Christophe Riblon, Blel Kadri, Steven Kruijswijk, Giovanni Visconti, John Gadret, and Tony Martin are other strong talents who might try to go for this one from afar.

Should the pack make the effort to reel any early attackers back in, Stage 17 will probably come down to a battle royale among the General Classification’s very best climbers on the final slope. The tough uphill tests in the middle of the day will do their damage and could see some contenders fall away, and some tricky descending could contribute to gaps as well, but even if a sizable group reaches the foot of the last climb, it will get blown apart on the vicious gradients. It’s hard to see past Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali on a brutal finishing climb like this. He’s looked bulletproof in this race, and that’s not likely to change here. FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot has emerged as one of the few riders who might have a chance to engage him uphill. With his huge advantage on the leaderboard, Nibali may give Pinot a chance to get up the road towards the end of the day, and the young Frenchman is on the form of his life; he’ll jump at any opportunity to land a result. Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde might also have a shot: if he can hang on at the head of affairs all the way to the top of the final climb, things do flatten out for the final 200 meters, and Valverde is the best sprinter among the top GC men.

A bit further down on the leaderboard, Leopold Konig is not going to trouble any of the top GC contenders, and he has looked particularly strong recently, hanging with the podium favorites on Stage 16. He came close to a stage win when he put in a late attack on the last climb of Stage 13, and he could try to go just that little bit further to victory here. Romain Bardet lost a lot of time on Stage 16 and he may try to claw back some seconds, but he’ll need to recover his form quickly: he did not look good on the Port de Balès. Teammate Jean-Christophe Peraud looks considerably stronger right now. Belkin’s Laurens Ten Dam is one other rider to watch; at 11:12 off the lead, he’s no threat to the anyone in the Top 5 if he should decide to strike ahead for glory late on Stage 17. He appears to be a lot stronger than teammate Bauke Mollema right now.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Rafal Majka | 2. Vincenzo Nibali | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 17, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 22, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 16 Preview

Stage 16: Carcassonne › Bagnères-de-Luchon – 237.5 km

A flat stage (won by Alexander Kristoff) and a rest day may have given the peloton some time to gather strength, but three tough stages in the Pyrenees await. The first, Stage 16, is the longest day of racing the Tour de France has to offer, 237.5 kilometers from start to finish. The road gets hillier as the stage wears on, punctuated by an HC-rated climb crested with 21.5 kilometers remaining on the day. 11.7 kilometers long at an average gradient of 7.7%, it’s not the hardest Hors Categorie climb in the Tour, but it will be tough on the legs after so many kilometers of racing. From the top, it’s a fast, long, and at some points technical descent towards the finish, only flattening out for about 2 kilometers before the line.

The succession of ups and downs late in the race will make this stage a difficult one for the pack to control, and with two very challenging stages to come, the motivation to do so may not be particularly strong. Stage 16 looks like a great opportunity for a breakaway to stay clear to the line. Whoever wins this stage (regardless of whether that victory comes from the pack or the early move) will have to be a strong climber and a capable descender: the final ascent and the downhill that follows will see some aggressive riding that could decide the day.

As on any breakaway-friendly stage, there is no obvious favorite here, but there are several riders who have the skillset to pick up the win and who could try to get a headstart with a long-distance move. It would be a big surprise not to see Tinkoff-Saxo with a man in the day’s breakaway. Rafal Majka has quickly refound the legs that drove him to such a strong performance in the Giro, and out of the climbing specialists not in GC contention in the Tour de France, he’s one of the very strongest. However, he’s now a legitimate contender for the mountains classification and with plenty of KOM points on offer over the days to come, he may decide to save energy on this long day. If he does hold back from the early move, teammate Michael Rogers might be the one to watch: he put his strong descending skills on display during in his first stage win at the 2014 Giro, and he put his strong climbing legs on display in his second. He is on excellent form right now, finishing the last two mountain stages with the riders at the fringes of the GC Top 10 battle. Nicolas Roche is another great option for the team.

Joaquim Rodriguez will be thinking hard on how he’ll want to play the three stages to come to maximize his ability to contend on the climbs. He’s getting stronger as the Tour goes on, and he will be a favorite if he gets into the breakaway, but he may not be trying to go from that far out on Stage 16. Simon Spilak and Yuri Trofimov are, as usual, nice alternatives for Katusha.

OPQS is another team with options. Michal Kwiatkowski is out of GC contention after a few bad days in the Alps, but he’s had a rest day to recover some energy. He’s a very aggressive rider who could try to get into a long-range move, and though he might struggle to make it up this climb with the GC powerhouses, against the competition within a breakawy, he’d have a fighting chance. He’s an excellent descender and a great sprinter, making him a nice candidate. Teammate Tony Martin is also a very strong descender, and given his impressive engine, he’s less likely to be fatigued after a long day in the saddle. Versatile Jan Bakelants is yet another option.

Lampre-Merida’s Rui Costa is almost 13 minutes back on GC, and may have some freedom to go up the road. Frank Schleck is almost two minutes behind him, and while not a great descender, he’s been climbing very well. Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi has been active in the breakaways and although he has fallen short so far, he’s shown nice form. His teammate Peter Sagan may actually be one to watch here as well: this final climb is tough, but it’s not so tough that his survival is out of the question. If he makes it up in the lead group, it’s hard to see anyone outmatching him on the long descent or a potential sprint finale. Movistar’s Giovanni Visconti, Sky’s Mikel Nieve and Geraint Thomas (or even Richie Porte, if he has recovered some of his strength), Europcar’s Cyril Gautier and Tommy Voeckler, IAM Cycling’s Sylvain Chavanel, AG2R’s Christophe Riblon and Blel Kadri, OGE’s Michael Albasini and Simon Gerrans, Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin, and Bretagne-Séché Environnement’s Brice Feillu are other riders who might like the look of the Stage 16 profile and who could be protagonists from afar.

If this all comes back together before or on the slopes of the Port de Balès climb, expert descender Vincenzo Nibali and fast-finishing Alejandro Valverde will be among the top favorites: the final ascent is tough, but there are hard days ahead with slopes better designed for GC action, and if riders crest the summit in groups, the fight for stage success will be all about the descent and the sprint to the line. Valverde reported mechanical issues during Stage 14, suggesting that his relatively poor showing on the final climb there was not an issue of form. He’s not a bad descender, and his sprint would give him an edge for this stage if he is in the lead group near the end of the day.

It is possible that attacks from some of the strong-climbing riders a bit further down on GC are allowed up the road on the final ascent: in that case, watch out for NetApp-Endura’s Leopold Konig, who is looking very sharp right now, and Europcar’s Pierre Rolland, who rarely misses an opportunity to strike for glory. One other rider to keep an eye on is AG2R’s Romain Bardet. With a time trial approaching, he knows he needs to do everything in his power to strengthen his position, and given the well-publicized problems his French rival Thibaut Pinot has with fast descents, don’t be surprised to see Bardet attempt to put Pinot under pressure on Stage 16.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Michael Rogers | 2. Michal Kwiatkowski | 3. Alejandro Valverde

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 16, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 21, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 15 Preview

Stage 15: Tallard › Nîmes – 222 km

After a pair of tough days in the Alps (closed out by Rafal Majka’s stage victory in Risoul), the peloton will like the look of the Stage 15 profile: there isn’t a single categorized climb on the road from Tallard to Nîmes. With the Tour coming down out of the Alps and headed towards the Mediterranean coast, there are a few long downhill sections on the menu, and the final 65 kilometers are about as flat as a pancake. However, those hunting for success on Stage 15 can’t let the profile lull them into a false sense of security: the weather report is calling for rain, and crosswinds are always a possibility here. A number of roundabouts and a few turns near the finish could further complicate things. It’s also one of the longest stages in the Tour at 222 kilometers. A bunch sprint seems the most likely scenario, but it’s not a given that everyone will make it to the line, and even if all the familiar faces are there, those who are more capable of coping with tough conditions could be fresher for the finale.

Still, although there is a long and possibly wet day ahead, Marcel Kittel will be the top favorite for Stage 15. He’s the fastest sprinter in the race and he has the best leadout, to boot. With no hills to put him in difficulty, his rivals will have to hope that he tires during the long the trip to the line, or that the weather causes enough chaos to force splits in the pack. If Kittel is there in the finale, he’ll be hard to beat. If he isn’t there, teammate John Degenkolb is a strong alternative.

Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel had a slow start to this year’s Tour de France, but he quelled concerns of form with a convincing stage win in Reims. He will be extra hungry after a crash with Sylvain Chavanel put him out of contention for a sprint finish on Stage 11. He looks like the only rider who might challenge Kittel in a drag race.

After his brilliant stage victory in Oyonnax, Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff might be third favorite anyway, but a nasty weather report will be especially to his liking, as will the length of the journey to the line. He is a proven performer in bad conditions and he is less prone to fatigue than his rivals. He will have another nice opportunity on Stage 15. Peter Sagan will also be pleased with the weather report. In a drag race, his chances are slim against Kittel and Greipel, but his elite bike handling skills and impressive endurance should help him position himself to take the best possible shot at victory here on Stage 15. He’s running out of opportunities to take a win in this Tour de France. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare appears to going strong again after a rough first week. He’s another tough rider who shouldn’t mind a classics-esque day.

OPQS’s Mark Renshaw has picked up some nice results filling in for Mark Cavendish, and his team is particularly good at taking advantage of poor conditions. An attempt to force a split before the finish (or a sneaky attack from Tony Martin) wouldn’t be all that surprising. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard has not placed higher than 4th on a sprint stage in this race, but he has always been in the mix. With the constant possibility of crashes on rain-soaked roads, being in the right place at the right time might be all it takes to make the leap from 4th to 1st. Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas, AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin, IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati, Movistar’s JJ Rojas, and OGE’s Simon Gerrans and Michael Albasini will be outside contenders for the likely sprint finish.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Andre Greipel | 3. Alexander Kristoff

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! With a rest day on tap after Stage 15, the next preview will be up on Monday, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 19, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14: Grenoble › Risoul – 177 km

Vincenzo Nibali passed the Tour’s first high-mountain test with flying colors in the thirteenth stage of the race. The yellow jersey wearer and the rest of the peloton will take on another day of serious uphill challenges on Stage 14. At 177 kilometers, the journey from Grenoble to Risoul is not a particularly long one, but the riders will be either charging up steep Alpine slopes or zooming down them all day long. The pack starts climbing up a steady (though uncategorized) gradient almost immediately once the racing begins. Things flatten out a bit for the intermediate sprint point, but then the road kicks back up for will seem like an eternity: the Category 1 Col du Lautaret is not all that steep at 3.9%, but 34 km is a very, very long time to spend traveling skyward. When the riders finally reach the top, they will embark on a 30 kilometer descent to the foot of the Col d’Izoard, an HC-rated challenge of 19 km at a 6% average grade. The Col d’Izoard starts out at low gradients, but the second half of the climb is much steeper than the first, and anyone on a bad day is likely to be found out as things get harder after the midway point. From the summit, it’s a high-speed descent to the bottom of the day’s final test, the Cat. 1, 12.6 kilometer climb to Risoul. It’s a steady incline all the way up, but after so many long ascents it’s going to be an exhausting trip to the finish line.

There a quite a few KOM points on offer here in the fourteenth stage of the Tour de France, and with such an up and down profile that will make it difficult for any one team to control the race, the climbing specialists who are out of GC contention will see a golden opportunity to go off the front in search of glory. The GC men, on the other hand, are coming off of a very difficult day of racing, and might be content to let others contest the victory. The morning breakaway has a good chance of going the distance on Stage 14.

Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez did not get into the Stage 13 break, and when the road started to go up towards the finish, he quickly fell back and took the ascent at his own pace. He should have a bit more energy for Stage 14 than a number of other uphill specialists who poured everything into the Chamrousse climb, and he obviously has more talent than almost anyone else as well. With so many KOM points available here, Purito will likely be very aggressive trying to get ahead, and the early incline will give him an advantage trying to get into the break if he wants to go for this from afar. As difficult as it is to predict which riders will make it out front on a day like this, Joaquim Rodriguez is my top favorite for Stage 14. Teammates Simon Spilak and Yuri Trofimov are other riders to watch.

Continuing in the vein of potential long-distance candidates for success: Mikel Nieve is an excellent climber and a keen opportunist, and he is in terrific shape right now. His team has suddenly found itself out of GC contention after Richie Porte’s very bad day on Stage 13, and now Sky will probably be looking to get something out of this Tour de France with a long-distance strike in the mountains. Geraint Thomas has been climbing quite well, too, and he may be another potential aggressor here.

Tinkoff-Saxo has gone in to full stagehunting mode and they came very close with Rafal Majka on Stage 13. They’ll have another shot at it on Stage 14, and they will be trying to get Majka, Nicolas Roche, or Michael Rogers into the early move. All three of them are strong contenders, and if any one of them makes it into the day’s breakaway, he will be a favorite for stage victory.

AG2R’s Christophe Riblon stayed quiet on the road to Chamrousse. The energy he saved there, coupled with a skillset well-suited for this profile, could see him in the mix. Teammate Blel Kadri could also give this a go. Trek’s Frank Schleck and Haimar Zubeldia will be coming off a day of very hard effort, but they look strong at the moment, and they are far enough back in the General Classification that they’ll likely be allowed to slip away. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is just ahead of Zubeldia on GC and could also have an aggressive gameplan in mind for Stage 14, though he isn’t at his best right now following a tough Giro campaign. Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi and Bretagne-Séché Environnement’s Brice Feillu are other candidates to try a long-range move.

Leopold Konig of NetApp-Endura looked very strong on Stage 13, coming in 3rd on the day and riding himself into the GC Top 10. He may now be just a bit too close to the GC heavyweights to be given a lot of freedom to get out front, but if he is allowed some space, he’ll be a dangerous contender. Belkin’s Laurens Ten Dam is in a similar position: a strong ride to the Chamrousse finish line put him within sight of the Top 10 overall, and it’s tough to say whether he’d be allowed off the front if he wants to make a bid for glory on Stage 14. Also hovering around the fringes of the Top 10 is Michal Kwiatkowski of OPQS. He looked to be in serious difficulty at the foot of the final climb on Stage 13, but he rode his own steady pace up to the top and ultimately finished only about 4 minutes down. He has already shown a willingness to go on the attack in this race, and he might try again here.

Should the pack ultimately sweep up the day’s early breakers on Stage 14, it’s hard to see past Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali as the top favorite once again. He is simply the strongest climber in the race. With Tanel Kangert, Michele Scarponi, and Jakob Fuglsang (if he is not too badly hurt following a crash) at his side, the shark is unstoppable when the road goes up.

Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde is his closest rival on a stage like this. Should Nibali fail to drop him on the final climb, he has the sprint to cross the line first.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot looks very sharp at the moment and he’ll hope to gain more time on his rival for both the podium and the white jersey, Romain Bardet. There is a lot of descending on the docket on Stage 14, so Pinot’s confidence could be put to the test. Speaking of Bardet, he has been steady throughout this race, as has teammate Jean-Christophe Peraud, and they should continue to be a top-notch pairing on this tough day in the mountains.

BMC’s Tejay van Garderen should like the look of the final climb, which favors those who can turn a steady pace. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema and Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen van den Broeck have both been improving. A few minutes down on Nibali on GC, any one of this trio might have a bit of freedom to strike for glory on the ascent to Risoul.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodriguez | 2. Vincenzo Nibali | 3 Alejandro Valverde

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 14, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 18, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 13 Preview

Stage 13: Saint-Étienne › Chamrousse – 197.5 km

After a day without any real GC implications (Alexander Kristoff won Stage 12 in a bunch sprint), the yellow jersey fight will heat up again on Stage 13. The Tour’s journey through the Vosges offered plenty of uphill challenges to give an early indication of the climbers’ pecking order, but Stage 13 serves up the first high-altitude test of the race. The 197.5 kilometer day starts with a Cat. 3 climb and then a very long section of relatively flat roads before a tough final 60 kilometers. First, the peloton must take on the Cat. 1 Col de Palaquit, 14.1 km at 6.1%. Compared to what comes next on the profile, it may not look too bad, but this is a real test in its own right that will inject some pain into the legs of even the uphill specialists. After the tough climb and a fast descent, the riders will pass Grenoble and then start the grueling final ascent to Chamrousse, an HC-rated 18.2 kilometer slog at 7.3%. The steepest sections of the climb come early on. Things start to ease up a bit right near the top, but after such a long skyward journey, any group that comes to the foot of the climb is almost certain to be blown apart before it reaches the summit.

If any strong climbers make it into the morning breakaway, they will have a chance of staying away here; with another high mountain stage on tap for Saturday, the peloton may decide to conserve some energy on Stage 13. However, there are flat run-ins to both late climbs where things are likely to get very pacey in the pack as teams try to bring their leaders into the best possible position to start the ascending, and that could start to eat away at any advantage a breakaway might have. Even if those off the front do have some breathing room when they start their uphill journey to Chamrousse, it will still be a big challenge holding the gap all the way to the top.

The Tour’s climbing stars will be the favorites for victory here. Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali outclassed everyone on La Planche des Belles Filles last weekend, showing that he is the rider to beat on the steep stuff. With a terrific supporting cast in Jakob Fuglsang, Tanel Kangert, and Michele Scarponi, he has the team to set a strong pace when the road goes up. There are a few potential long-distance protagonists who could take this stage from afar, but if the pack does reel in the early moves as the Chamrousse climb nears, Nibali looks to be the single likeliest victor.

Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde was not as strong as expected in the steep finale of the Tour’s eigth stage, but he was impressive on Stage 10, rolling in 3rd behind Nibali. He may be getting a bit stronger as the race goes on, and with the uphill ability he has shown in the past, he should be able to contend on this challenging final climb. Like Nibali, he has a strong team to position him well for a vertical charge in the Stage 13 finale.

Sky’s Richie Porte faces a real test here: the long ascents should be a strength, but this is the first time he is taking on an HC-rated Tour de France climb as team leader. If he can stay calm and churn out a steady pace, he could thrive on this slope. Mikel Nieve and Geraint Thomas, both still within the GC Top 15, make terrific allies.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot has been very impressive on the climbs so far in this race, and the Stage 13 profile will allow him to put that talent on display again. He will also be pleased that there is not a whole lot of technical desceding on the docket. French compatriots Romain Bardet and Jean-Christophe Peraud of AG2R are also looking very strong, and they make a nice combo for the long climbs.

BMC’s Tejay van Garderen has handled the uphill challenges in this race with aplomb. He has developed considerably as a climber in 2014, and this will be an opportunity to put his improved skills to the test. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema struggled with stomach issues when facing some tough climbs earlier in the race, but he should be ready for Stage 13’s challenges. Past performances suggest that he should be able to put in a decent performance on this sort of skyward slog; we’ll see if he’s at the level necessary to succeed right now.

Lampre-Merida’s Rui Costa has been suffering from bronchitis, and this will not be a pleasant journey to the top for him. He has a strong team with Chris Horner as a great second, but it will be a lot to ask to stay at the head of affairs for 18.2 very steep kilometers. Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck, who was so strong in the Dauphine, has looked a bit off the pace on the climbs so far, and unless he manages to find an extra gear soon, this could be a tough stage for him as well.

Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez is the best climber in a select group of riders who are, on the one hand, far enough out of GC contention that they’ll be able to make a long-distance move, and on the other, talented enough to win on these slopes. Purito came very close to success on Stage 10, even after already expending a lot of effort picking up KOM points. Staying out front over the 18.2 kilometer final ascent is a lot to ask, but Rodriguez is one of the strongest climbers in the whole race. There will be a number of KOM points on offer on Saturday’s stage as well, however, which could affect how Purito decides to play Stage 13. His teammates Simon Spilak and Yuri Trofimov are other strong options to go on the offensive from far out.

Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is far enough back on GC that he could go on the attack without giving too much worry to those near the top of the leaderboard. Post-Giro d’Italia Rolland is not as dangerous as he might be were this his first Grand Tour of the year, but if the pack does not have the motivation to reel in any moves from riders that aren’t in podium contention, Rolland has a chance: he is still one of the best climbers in the Tour.

NetApp-Endura’s Leopold Konig fell out of GC contention early in this race, but he finished 8th on La Planche des Belles Filles (ahead of Bauke Mollema and a few other top GC men). He could get into a move off the front and put his great uphill talent on display on Stage 13. AG2R’s Christophe Riblon finally showed himself with an attempt to take Stage 10 from the breakaway, and he could look to go for a long one again here. Tinkoff-Saxo has a very dangerous trio of climbing stars in Michael Rogers, Nicolas Roche, and Rafal Majka, all of whom are now free to hunt stage wins from afar. Others strong-climbing candidates who could look to get out front and hold on for success include Trek’s Frank Schleck and Haimar Zubeldia, Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler and Cyril Gautier, Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro, Bretagne-Séché Environnement’s Brice Feillu, and Garmin-Sharp’s Janier Acevedo.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Vincenzo Nibali | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 13, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 17, 2014