Tag: Favorites

Tour de France 2014: Stage 12 Preview

Stage 12: Bourg-en-Bresse › Saint-Étienne – 185.5 km

The undulating finale of the Tour’s eleventh stage served as an excellent launching pad for Tony Gallopin to outfox Peter Sagan and a charging pack of fast finishers. Late climbs again await the peloton on Stage 12. The first of two major ascents near the end of the day is a 15.3 kilometer Category 3 climb that averages 3.3%. It’s not the sort of steep wall that the puncheurs will love, but it is long enough to put some of the heavier riders under pressure. It is followed by a fast descent and then a 9.8 kilometer Cat. 4 that averages 2.9%. Again, the gradient itself is not all that demanding, but it will be a long way for the sprinters to travel on an incline, especially if there are teams driving the pace up front. After another descent, things flatten out for the final few kilometers toward the finish.

The bumpy road to Saint-Étienne will give a breakaway some chance of going the distance on Stage 12, but there are quite a few teams in this Tour de France whose featured sprinters have decent climbing legs. If those teams cooperate, it will be hard for anyone who gets up the road to survive. As such, while the opportunists will certainly put in the effort to make this interesting all the way to the line, the favorites will be the fast finishers with the uphill talent to make it over the late climbs without losing ground to the pack.

As usual, chief among the more versatile sprinter types is Cannondale’s Peter Sagan. His frustration at being constantly forced to decide between closing down moves on his own or letting them go clear and hoping others will do the chasing is mounting, but Stage 12 may be his best opportunity for victory left in this race. The final climbs aren’t as steep as they were in the eleventh stage, the last descent isn’t as tricky, and there is a longer flat run-in to the line. The race should be a bit easier to control. Still, easier doesn’t mean easy: Cannondale will need some help from other teams to keep the early breakaway and any attacks on the climbs on a short leash, and even if things come together for a sprint, the young Slovakian will probably be facing some stiff competition.

The list of riders who will hope to rival Sagan if this does comes down to a sprint is headlined by Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb. These late hills will probably too much for the team’s other star fast-man Marcel Kittel, but they has a capable alternative in Degenkolb. Runner-up on Stage 11, he is clearly feeling much better now than he was feeling last week. If he is, indeed, back to full strength, Sagan will have his hands full on Stage 12: Degenkolb at peak form should be able to handle these climbs, and he has been extremely fast this year, coming very close to beating Mark Cavendish twice in the Tour of California, and rather handily defeating Peter Sagan in a sprint in Gent-Wevelgem.

Orica-GreenEdge has an excellent lineup for the hilly stages, but they are still without a win in this Tour de France. This will be another good opportunity pick up that elusive victory. Simon Gerrans has landed some strong results in the reduced bunch sprints we’ve seen, and Michael Albasini is an excellent alternative with a similar skillset. OGE could try to put one in the break and let the other hang back in the pack to cover both potential scenarios.

OPQS’s Matteo Trentin continues to deliver impressive performances in the sprints on the hilly days, following up his earlier stage win with a nice 3rd place on Stage 11. He will be strong option for his team here on Stage 12, with the added versatility of being able to jump into the early move if that looks to be the smart decision. Michal Kwiatkowski will, as usual, be another versatile card for the team to play.

Movistar’s JJ Rojas, AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati should enjoy an opportunity to battle a somewhat reduced bunch if this comes to a sprint. Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel, on the other hand, will be put to the limit trying to make it to the line, but it could happen, and it should go without saying that he’ll be a top favorite for a sprint if he’s still in the pack. Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff and FDJ’s Arnaud Demare could hold on for a bunch finish, and they will be dangerous if they are there. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, OPQS’s Mark Renshaw, and IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler have a chance to be in the mix as well.

Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin, BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet, Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter, Cofidis’s Julien Simon, Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas, and FDJ’s Arthur Vichot are fast finishers but they’ll have a hard time against the top sprinters. They will have to decide whether to try their luck in the bunch or attempt a long-range attack on Stage 12. It will take a strong group and some tactical riding for a move off the front to take this one from a hungry pack of sprinters. Strong candidates for success who will likely see a long-distance strike as their only chance at a stage win include Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche and Michael Rogers, Giant-Shimano’s Tom Dumoulin, Lotto Belisol’s Adam Hansen, Belkin’s Lars Boom and Sep Vanmarcke, Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler and Cyril Gautier, OPQS’s Tony Martin and Jan Bakelants, and IAM Cycling’s Sylvain Chavanel.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. John Degenkolb | 3. Simon Gerrans

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 12, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 16, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 11 Preview

Stage 11: Besançon › Oyonnax – 187.5 km

The Tour’s eleventh stage follows its first rest day, a break the peloton desperately needed after Monday’s brutal stage that saw the abandonment of Alberto Contador and a hard-fought uphill battle (won by Vincenzo Nibali) to close out the day. The Stage 11 profile is not a flat one, but its hills pale in comparison to the Vosges climbs that injected pain into hundreds of legs over the weekend. It will be a welcome change for most of the riders in the Tour de France. Still, the climbs will play a role in how Stage 11 plays out; the toughest ascents of the stage come in quick succession as the day reaches its conclusion, with four categorized climbs less than 30 kilometers apart. Following the final Cat. 3, there is an uncategorized bump in the road and then a technical descent to Oyonnax and the finish line.

The rolling profile makes this another good opportunity for a breakaway to succeed. It’s probably just a bit too challenging for the heavier sprinters, which will reduce the amount of fierpower committed to the chase. The barrage of late hills late and the long descent that follows will make it difficult for anyone to control the race even if they tried. However, this sort of intermediate stage is one of the few (along with the next day’s stage) in the race that isn’t likely to be dominated by a pure sprinter or a climbing star, making for a more open competition: almost every team in the Tour de France will try to take advantage of the opportunity to pick off a win. If a few strong teams miss the break, they’ll commit to reeling things in, and though this profile is lumpy, it’s not so lumpy as to guarantee the break’s success.

The “favorites” (with the usual caveat that that is a loaded term on breakaway-friendly stages) will be decent climbers with either fast finishes or good soloing skills to try to escape late and maintain a gap on the descent.

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan is the number one rider to watch on the stage. He shouldn’t struggle with the climbs, he’s a masterful descender, and he’s obviously a fast finisher. Dealing with the day’s breakaway will be his biggest challenge. He may try to get into the break himself, or he may go for this one from the pack, which would mean a lot of time on the front for his team. That versatility is what makes him such a strong contender.

The same is true for both Simon Gerrans and Michael Albasini of Orica-GreenEdge. In Stage 7’s sprint finish, Gerrans looked to have recovered the strength he lost in his opening stage crash. The Stage 11 profile suits him perfectly, with an opportunity to escape on a late climb, or the possibility of a reduced sprint. Teammate Michael Albasini is another excellent option: the Swiss veteran is an expert at picking the right moves, and he’s got a fast finish, too. Orica-GreenEdge will have a lot of flexibility with this duo: they can try to put one of them into the breakaway and let the other ride it out in the pack, to cover both scenarios. Whether or not the stage goes to the break or to the peloton could hinge on whether Peter Sagan and at least one Orica-GreenEdge rider make it into the move: if not, Cannondale and OGE can be expected to get involved in the chase early.

Trek’s Fabian Cancellara would be another top choice, but he has abandoned the race to focus on other objectives. Fellow classics protagonist BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet is still here, however, and he could be a contender thanks to his blend of good climbing legs, strong solo prowess, and a fast finish. OPQS has the quality duo of Jan Bakelants and Matteo Trentin to take on the difficult challenge of deciding between breakaway and peloton; both are excellent on hilly days and Trentin in particular is a dangerous option if he is in whatever group is fighting for the win when the day nears its conclusion. FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin, Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter, AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin, Cofidis’s Julien Simon, Movistar’s JJ Rojas, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati, and Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas are other top contenders who could win Stage 11 from either the break or the peloton.

If things do come back together at the end, it could be all about which of the big name sprinters survive the late climbs. Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb might be a top favorite were it not for the injury he suffered early on in this race. He’s still a rider to watch; normally, he’d be targeting this stage, which is probably too difficult for Marcel Kittel. Fellow German Andre Greipel can climb better than most people realize. This still might be a bit too much to ask, but if things regroup for a sprint and he does survive the bumpy road, he will obviously be a top favorite. Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff has a chance to hold on over the climbs, though this stage may not be long enough to favor his skillset even if he does. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare can normally handle a hill or two, but as of yet he has not looked recovered from injuries sustained crashing earlier in the Tour. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Michael Morkov also have a shot of making it over the late bumps to contest a sprint if it should come to that.

Other candidates will be more reliant on the breakaway’s chances. In addition to their duo of versatile fast finishers (Bennati and Morkov), Tinkoff-Saxo suddenly has a stable of options for breakaway success now that team leader Alberto Contador is out of the race. They’ll still be hoping to get something out of the Tour de France, and all-rounder talents Mick Rogers, Nicolas Roche, and Rafal Majka will be dangerous stagehunters with breakaway ambitions. Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler could give the early move another go after spending a long (and ultimately unsuccessful) day out front on Stage 10. His teammate Cyril Gautier may be a better option; the younger Gautier has looked sharp so far, while Voeckler has not looked his best. IAM Cycling’s Sylvain Chavanel is always a strong candidate to go for a long-distance win. On this profile and with Degenkolb still questionable, Tom Dumoulin may be the best option for Giant-Shimano; he’s been impressive on all levels of his game in this race; his soloing ability is well-known, but he has also flashed a decent sprint on two separate stages and he is showing off his able climbing legs with his Top 30 position on GC. Movistar’s Giovanni Visconti, Belkin’s Lars Boom and Sep Vanmarcke, OPQS’s Tony Martin, Trek’s Jens Voigt, and Cofidis’s Nicolas Edet are other potential long-range protagonists who could have a shot.

On the off-chance that the GC contenders try to mix things up on Stage 11, watch out for a fast finisher like Alejandro Valverde, a strong descender like Vincenzo Nibali, or Michal Kwiatkowski, who qualifies as both.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Simon Gerrans | 3. Greg Van Avermaet

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 11, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 15, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 10 Preview

Stage 10: Mulhouse › La Planche des Belles Filles – 161.5 km

The peloton enjoyed a comparatively easy day in the ninth stage of the Tour de France, leaving the real fighting to the breakaway up the road, from which Tony Martin took a decisive victory with a long attack. That brief ceasefire in GC hostilities shouldn’t come as a surprise: the Stage 10 profile looks like a roller coaster viewed from the side. The day’s seven categorized climbs include four Cat. 1s. The final two will really hurt: the Col des Chevrères grades out at a vicious 9.5%, which will put the riders who prefer to grind out a steady tempo into a world of hurt, while the summit finish at La Planche des Belles Filles comes at the end of a 5.9 kilometer journey up a slope averaging 8.5%, with a section of 20% leading into the line. At 161.5 kilometers, it’s a short stage overall, but with so many uphill tests, the finish won’t come fast enough for the peloton.

The continuous onslaught of uphill challenges and fast descents makes this yet another good chance for a breakaway. The GC favorites will be much more concerned with each other than anyone out of contention who gets up the road, and the sprinters won’t have a chance here. Even if there is a concerted effort to pull back the break, the peloton could struggle to reel in those up front given the constant ups and downs and winding roads. However, unless the breakaway contains some serious climbing talent, it may start to falter as the day wears on, especially as the GC contenders start to ramp up the pace for the run-in to the final two brutal climbs. What’s more, the yellow jersey hunters took Stage 9 pretty easily, and a rest day awaits on Tuesday, meaning that the real powerhouses of this race will be fresh and ready to put it all on the line on Stage 10. That will further complicate things for those riders up the road. I see about a 50/50 chance for the break here. One thing’s for certain: for anyone to win this stage, a healthy dose of uphill ability will be required.

One major feature of the stage that you won’t see in the profile is the date itself: the peloton takes on Stage 10 on July 14th, Bastille Day. It’s been quite a while since a French rider won a stage of the Tour on the country’s national holiday, but it hasn’t been for lack of trying. For a French pro cyclist, there are few things more desirable than a Bastille Day victory, and that means that the French riders will be extra-aggressive trying to get out front on this climb-happy profile.

As with any stage that gives a breakaway a good chance of success, it’s hard to name anyone a favorite, but at least this day of harsh climbs allows us to narrow down the list a bit to the GC contenders and those opportunists with real climbing talent. Among said opportunists, it will be interesting to see which of the uphill chargers from the Stage 9 breakaway have enough left in the tank to give it another go on Stage 10; so many of the strong climbers who are out of GC contention and who might stand out as likely agressors will indeed be coming off a long day out front. Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez finally showed some form in the road to Mulhouse, picking up a handful of KOM points behind Tony Martin. If he continues to feel well, he could give it another go. Teammate Simon Spilak was with him in the Stage 9 break, and he is another rider who could be hoping to recover energy quickly to try for another long distance attempt.

Giant’s Tom Dumoulin, Belkin’s Steven Kruijswijk, Europcar’s Cyril Gautier, Bretagne-Séché’s Brice Feillu, Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro and Nicolas Edet (who will also be on the lookout for more mountain points), and Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi are other strong-climbing opportunists whose participation in the early move of Stage 10 may depend on how quickly they recover from the efforts of the day prior.

AG2R’s Christophe Riblon has not been very visible so far in this Tour de France, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the winner of last year’s Alpe d’Huez stage was saving his energy for another attempt to win on a momentous day. Stages like this are his specialty. NetApp-Endura’s Leopold Konig has not had the Tour he was hoping for, but this will be an opportunity for him to get something out of the race; he’s an excellent climber. Garmin-Sharp’s Janier Acevedo, Katusha’s Yuri Trofimov (far enough on the fringes of the General Classification that he’ll likely be given some freedom), Movistar’s Giovanni Visconti, FDJ’s Arnold Jeannesson, IAM Cycling’s Sebastien Reichenbach, AG2R’s Blel Kadri, Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler, Cofidis’s Rein Taaramae, and Trek’s Haimar Zubeldia and Frank Schleck are other good long-distance candidates who will come into Stage 10 without having spent the previous day out front. It will interesting to see if any of the teams hunting the yellow jersey send any top lieutenants up the road; Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche, Rafal Majka, and Michael Rogers, Sky’s Mikel Nieve, Lampre’s Chris Horner, and Movistar’s Benat Intxausti and Ion Izagirre would be big favorites if they made it into an early move.

Whoever ends up in the breakaway, they’ll have their work cut out for them staying away from the pack of GC contenders. The Tour de France has spent two days in the hilly Vosges region already, but this one is by far the most likely to shakeup the General Classification. Stage 10 is the best opportunity so far in the race for the elite climbers to get ahead, and that could make for a very fast day among the yellow jersey contenders; even if they aren’t actually focused on reeling in the riders up the road, it could very well happen anyway.

As might be rather obvious on a day with four Cat. 1 climbs and an uphill finish, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Alberto Contador is the favorite among the GC contenders. He is the best climber in the race, and he has an excellent team around him to put him into the best possible position to get ahead when the road goes up. If he gets away on the Col des Chevrères, with a meandering descent and another steep climb to follow, his rivals may not see him again until they get to the finish line, and for that reason he will be the day’s top favorite. It is important to note that by naming him as such, I am not saying that he is favored against the field, but given the fact that the GC contenders could very well reel in the day’s breakaway, and since it would be impossible to name any one rider as the favorite to take victory from the early move anyway, Contador is, in my mind, more likely than any other single rider to win Stage 10.

He will, however, have plenty of competition among the yellow jersey hunters. Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali looked up to the challenge in the steep finish of Stage 8, though this will be a much tougher day. Furthermore, his team has spent quite a long time at the front of the pack so far in the Tour de France, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them showing signs of fatigue here. Still, Nibali appears to be very strong right now, and his position on GC will allow him to follow moves rather than having to worry too much about making them himself.

Sky’s Richie Porte put in a nice performance of his own on the uphill finish in Gérardmer, coming in only four seconds behind Nibali. These are very steep climbs he’ll be undertaking on Stage 10, but he does have a strong supporting cast, and they have not had to do too much work in this race so far. Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde tends to like the steep stuff, but he was not at the same level as the likes of Contador and Nibali on Stage 8, and he’ll need to find that form fast if he wants to keep fighting for the yellow jersey with so many uphill tests on Stage 10.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot was very impressive in Gérardmer, next to cross the line after Porte. For him, the big challenge of Stage 10 may be the barrage of difficult descents. He looks to have improved both his bike handling and his general confidence, but this will put him to the test. If he can manage to stay out of trouble while going downhill, he’ll be very well positioned to strike out for glory on Bastille Day when the road goes up. AG2R’s Jean-Christophe Peraud and Romain Bardet could also be planning to attack on Stage 10. Both have looked strong, with Peraud’s form coming as a bit of a surprise after he seemed to be struggling in the Dauphine. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland will almost certainly try something on one of the later climbs, but having picked up a chunk of time on GC on the way to Mulhouse (he is now 8th overall), he won’t be given nearly the same level of freedom to get ahead anymore.

Lampre-Merida’s Rui Costa, Belkin’s Bauke Mollema, and Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck are all sitting one after another in the General Classification and could try to pick up time on Stage 10 while the riders at the very top of the GC leaderboard are worrying about each other. BMC’s Tejay van Garderen has looked sharp on the climbs so far and I like his chances to continue to be in the mix as this race goes on. This will be a tough day for his compatriot Andrew Talansky, who has been on the deck more often than he would have liked in these past few days, but he is known for his tenacity and this is a day that will require a healthy dose of fighting spirit.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Alberto Contador | 2. Vincenzo Nibali | 3. Alejandro Valverde

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! With a rest day on tap after Stage 10, the next preview will be up on Tuesday, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 13, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9: Gérardmer › Mulhouse – 170 km

With the peloton content to give the morning breakaway its chance at success, Blel Kadri of AG2R took victory on Stage 8 after a long day out front. Stage 9, the Tour’s second stage in the hilly Vosges region of France, is very likely to set up another breakaway victory. A constant barrage of climbs awaits from the very beginning of the day, with six categorized ascents in the first 127 kilometers. The vertical gain will add up as the journey wears on, with the penultimate categorized climb of 10.8 kilometers at 5.4% serving as a particularly challenging test that could see action among the General Classification contenders. After a long descent from Grand Ballon, there are approximately 20 kilometers of flat to close out the stage.

Stage 9 has the undulating profile that breakaway specialists love to see. Even if the strong teams in the race feel inclined to keep the break on a short leash, they will have a difficult time controlling things as the road constantly alternates between ups and downs. The peloton will hit the foot of a tough Category 2 climb only 3 kilometers into the day, and from there it’s going to be a fierce battle to get into the morning breakaway, given the likelihood of long-distance success. It’s never a certainty that the morning break will survive even on a day like this, and if things do come come together as the stage nears its conclusion there are a few riders who stand out as favorites from the pack, but it seems more likely that the winner of Stage 9 will come from a long-range move.

As with any breakaway-friendly stage, it will be extremely difficult to predict which riders will make it into the successful move. The likeliest protagonists for Stage 9 will be those opportunists who possess the well-rounded skillset to a handle a long day of uphill challenges and fast descents. A quick finish could come in handy given the flat run-in to the line. A number of talented all-rounders come to mind as possible protagonists.

Jan Bakelants of OPQS has a very versatile skillset, and he is particularly adept at getting into the right moves when he sees a chance for long-range success. He did just that in the Criterium du Dauphine this year, winning the fourth stage after spending the day in a sizeable break. This could be his opportunity to pick up a second career Tour de France victory. He is an underrated climber with a few WorldTour GC Top 10s to his name, but he also has an excellent sprint, which will make him dangerous at this finish. Teammate Matteo Trentin could also look to add to his collection of Tour de France victories here; this is a tough profile, but he’s a surprisingly strong climber, and he showed just how good he is in a sprint with his Stage 7 victory over Peter Sagan. And never count out time trialing machine Tony Martin, who, in addition to being the world’s best solo artist, can also climb surprisingly well.

Orica-GreenEdge always has a variety of options for a day like this. Michael Albasini is a rider capable of handling almost any terrain, and he can also sprint with the very best. He is a proven expert at picking the right early move. That array of skills, combined with the excellent form he is showing right now, makes him a good candidate to try something from afar. Simon Gerrans appears to have recovered from his opening stage crash; should he get into the right move, he will be tough to drop, and deadly in a sprint finale. Simon Clarke, a breakaway specialist who won the King of the Mountains competition in the 2012 Vuelta, is yet another option.

Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, and Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter and Ramunas Navardauskas all share an affinity for the hilly days, and all of them are quick in a reduced sprint; any one of them could be looking to get off the front early on Stage 9.

Katusha’s Simon Spilak has shown an ability to hang with some of the top climbers in the peloton in one-week races, but he is hunting stages in the Tour de France. If he gets into the morning break, his companions off the front could have trouble staying on his wheel when the road goes up. Teammate Joaquim Rodriguez, also hunting stages in the race, deserves a mention as well, though he has not looked to be back to full strength just yet.

AG2R’s Christophe Riblon won the Alpe d’Huez stage of the 2013 Tour de France and will be looking for further success this year. He has spent a lot of time at the back of the peloton so far, but perhaps he is just saving energy for one climactic move.

On a stage as breakaway-friendly as this, it’s hard to be confident in any list of potential long-range protagonists that doesn’t include every rider in the race, but since naming almost two hundred names wouldn’t be practical, I’ll mention only a few more riders that I think have the right qualities for success: Lotto Belisol’s Adam Hansen, Trek’s Jens Voigt, BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet, Astana’s Lieuwe Westra, and Movistar’s Giovanni Visconti are always worthy of a mention when a long-range victory seems likely, while Europcar’s Cyril Gautier and Tommy Voeckler, Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi, Giant-Shimano’s Tom Dumoulin, IAM Cycling’s Sebastien Reichenbach, Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro and Rein Taaramae, and Garmin-Sharp’s Janier Acevedo are all strong climbers who could see this as their opportunity for glory. To close out the list, though it’s hard to imagine that any one of them won’t be exhausted after a tough day out front on Stage 8, Simon Yates, Sylvain Chavanel, and Blel Kadri could look to get involved in the break for a second day in a row.

Should the GC contenders decide to put each other under real pressure on the slopes, it is possible that the increase in pace will close down those off the front before the end of the day. If that should happen, the fast finishers still in the pack could be the main beneficiaries in terms of stage-winning glory, as a flat final 20 kilometers will make it hard for any one rider to escape. Some of the aforementioned contenders (those who excel in the sprints) could decide stay in the pack, hoping for this scenario and a chance to battle with the speedier GC types, foremost of whom has to be Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde. Given his impressive finishing kick, he will be a top favorite if this all comes back together before the line. OPQS’s Michal Kwiatkowski may be his only rival in the sprints among the GC contenders, though he struggled on Stage 8, possibly showing signs of fatigue after expending a lot of energy for his and his teammates’ stage ambitions during the first week. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema and Lampre-Merida’s Rui Costa are also very quick to the line. Alberto Contador, Vincenzo Nibali, and Pierre Rolland don’t have the same closing speed and probably wouldn’t be in the mix in a sprint finish, but they could try to get up and over the final climb ahead of their rivals and then try to maintain a gap to the end.

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan gets a final mention all to himself. A lot of things would have to go right for him to contend here, but remember his Stage 3 victory in the 2013 Tour de Suisse; he stuck with Rui Costa, Roman Kreuziger, and Mathias Frank over a Category 1 climb (when even Bauke Mollema and Dan Martin were dropped) to take the win. If there’s one thing Sagan has taught us, it is that he can never be counted out. There are some hard climbs in this profile, but don’t be surprised to see him going for it anyway, even if that means trying to get into the day’s breakaway.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Michael Albasini | 2. Simon Spilak | 3. Alejandro Valverde

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 9, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 12, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 8 Preview

Stage 8: Tomblaine › Gérardmer La Mauselaine – 161 km

In the Tour’s seventh stage, Matteo Trentin earned his second career Tour de France win on a mostly flat day with a late sting in the tail. Stage 8 is another day of mostly flat roads leading into a late challenge, but this time the sting is a whole lot nastier. After 133 kilometers with only a few minor rollers, the Stage 8 profile suddenly turns savage. First comes the tough Cat. 2 climb of the Col de la Croix des Moinats, 7.6 km at an average gradient of 6%. After a speedy descent comes another Cat. 2 of 3 km at a steeper 7.5%. One more fast downhill leads into the final 1.8 kilometers, where the road kicks up in a vicious 10.3% average gradient 3rd Category climb to the Gérardmer finish. It’s not a long day, but the three late climbs are sure to weed out those who are not at the top of their game.

The early break will likely get a big advantage in the first two hours of racing, and with no chance for the pure sprinters at this finish and mountains on the horizon, the peloton’s chase may be a bit less spirited than we’ve seen on other stages. There is a chance of breakaway success here. Still, this will be the first real opportunity for the climbing specialists to do damage in the General Classification fight, which will probably lead to a real injection of pace from the pack in the last forty kilometers or so, at which point the break may struggle to hold their advantage on the flat run-in to the climbs. As such, this could be the first stage in the Tour that ends in a showdown among the GC candidates (with a few other punchy types likely in the mix as well). Any one of the day’s three uphill challenges could see action, with fireworks guaranteed on the steep final ascent.

With this finale, Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde has to be a rider to watch. The winner of the 2014 edition of La Fleche Wallonne is one of most explosive uphill finishers in the peloton, and he has been on top form all year, flashing his brilliance with victory after victory since February. With a chance to pick up time on his rivals, he’s certain to light up these late climbs.

Close behind Valverde at every turn in the Ardennes Classics was Michal Kwiatkowski of Omega Pharma-Quick Step. Stage 7 looked like a great opportunity for the versatile Kwiatkowski, but it turned out that he and his team were working for the also versatile Matteo Trentin. Kwiatkowski will have his opportunity on Stage 8. The short climbs are his forte, and he won’t have a problem with the descents that lead into the last climb of the day.

As one might expect on a stage involving a succession of late ascents closed out by a 10.3% climb, Alberto Contador will be a major player as well. The Tinkoff-Saxo leader knows he needs to pick up time on GC at every opportunity. An excellent descender, he may even try to strike out on the first or second categorized climb and attempt to grab an advantage from further out (and this could happen whether the peloton has reeled in the break or not). Contador has been unrivaled on the climbs so far this year, and this steep finish will allow him to turn the screws on his opponents for the yellow jersey of the Tour de France.

Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez would perhaps be the top favorite on this finish if his form weren’t in question. It is not clear how far along he is in his post-Giro recovery. Still, it’s hard to draw up a final two kilometers more perfect for Purito than these, and now that he’s further behind on GC than Andre Girepel, he’ll have the added benefit of being able to go on the attack without worrying the GC men. Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter and OGE’s Simon Gerrans and Michael Albasini are other very strong puncheurs who could enjoy that sort of freedom as well; head-to-head against the likes of Valverde this could be too steep for them, but as non-threats for the yellow jersey, they may be allowed off the front if they want to go for it. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is further down on GC than he would have hoped, but that will at least grant him more flexibility to strike on Stage 8. It’s not one that necessarily favors him over the other GC types, but if he gets ahead of the pack in a move of non-GC riders, his chances will be good.

Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali, Lampre-Merida’s Rui Costa and Chris Horner and Belkin’s Bauke Mollema should handle the final slopes well. AG2R’s Romain Bardet has shown some punch at times this year. This will be a good test to see just how strong Sky’s new leader Richie Porte is on the climbs right now. Garmin-Sharp’s Andrew Talansky and Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck don’t immediately come to mind on a final climb like this, but both have looked to be on excellent form in the past few weeks.

Katusha’s Simon Spilak, Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro, AG2R’s Christophe Riblon, and Garmin-Sharp’s Janier Acevedo are all excellent climbers who are out of the GC picture entirely, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them among those trying something from afar. Tommy Voeckler and Cyril Gautier of Europcar are almost certain to be on the lookout for long-range success on Stage 8. Jan Bakelants of OPQS may be as well. It will be interesting to see if Tinkoff-Saxo puts any of Contador’s elite trio of lieutenants (Rafal Majka, Nicolas Roche, and Michael Rogers) up the road. Lastly, Cannondale’s Peter Sagan at least deserves a mention: I highly doubt that he will be in the mix on something as steep as this last climb, but he was among the Top 15 riders in 2013’s La Fleche Wallonne; he may at least give it a shot!

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Alberto Contador | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 8, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 11, 2014
Tour de France 2014: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: Épernay › Nancy – 234.5 km

With four days for the sprinters (including a Stage 6 that went to Andre Greipel) already on the books in the 2014 Tour de France, one could be forgiven for taking a cursory look at the Stage 7 profile and assuming that it’s certain to lead to another bunch sprint showdown. After all, a pair of Cat. 4 climbs are the only categorized uphill challenges on the menu. However, both of those climbs are crested in the final 20 kilometers of the day, and the second, though only 1.3 kilometers in total length, grades out at an average of 7.9%—and from the top it’s less than 6 km to the line, mostly downhill. What’s more, Stage 7 is 234.5 kilometers from start to finish, making it the second longest stage in the entire Tour de France.

That last bump in the road could inspire the punchier riders to attempt escape close to the finish, especially after such a long day in the saddle. And with a few tough stages ahead and no certainty that the big sprinters will survive late attacks, the peloton could struggle finding the motivation to chase down the day’s breakaway, making a long-distance winner at least a possibility. There are a number of different potential scenarios for Stage 7, making it a hard one to predict. However it plays out, the favorites will be the riders with the endurance to handle all 234.5 km and the versatility and explosiveness to excel in what will likely be a challenging finale.

As is often the case in the difficult hilly stages, Cannondale’s Peter Sagan will be a favorite for victory. If the peloton does bring this all back together before it’s too late, his team will likely have played a role, and more than any other speedster in the Tour de France, Sagan is capable of handling the steep stuff. If anything, he is himself a danger to put in a dig on the climb and then divebomb the descent all the way to the line. In a sprint, he is one of the fastest in the peloton, and it seems possible that the German duo generally regarded as a tier above him might struggle on the last ascent. This could be his best opportunity so far to pick up a win.

Andre Greipel of Lotto Belisol, one of the aforementioned duo, is underrated in his ability to handle difficult days, but this might be a bit too much to ask; there just won’t be a lot of time for anyone who loses ground on the final climb to get back into contention, given the descent that follows. Meanwhile, Lotto’s sprint nemesis Giant-Shimano will be in a tough spot; normally this might be a day for Marcel Kittel to give leadership over to versatile John Degenkolb, but Degenkolb was injured in the Tour’s fifth stage and may not be able to contend. Obviously, if Kittel or Degenkolb manage to hold on for a sprint finish, they will be favorites, but that seems like a lot to ask.

There are a few sprinters other than Sagan who do have a decent shot here, however. Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff relishes the extra-long days, and he’s not a bad climber either. He has come close to victory more than once so far in this Tour, and a stage that may see Kittel unable to contest the sprint is his best opportunity to finally get a victory. Ramunas Navardauskas is slotted in as Garmin-Sharp’s sprinter of note, and he is especially adept at fast finishes following tough days. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare normally displays decent uphill ability, but he crashed on Stage 6, and even after finding his way back to the bunch following the incident, he was later dropped before the sprint finish; he may not be at full strength here, though if he is feeling up for it, he’s a danger in a bunch gallop.

Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, Trek’s Danny van Poppel, and OPQS’s Mark Renshaw have all performed well in the fast finishes so far, but even this does end in a sprint, surviving the difficult day could be too much to ask from them. Meanwhile, versatile quick men like Movistar’s JJ Rojas, AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin, and IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, normally fringe contenders, could find themselves a bit better positioned than usual should this come down to a reduced bunch sprint.

With a late climb coming after a long day of riding, we are certain to see plenty of punchy, aggressive riders trying to escape from the pack, or at least attempting to drop the speedsters that we’ve seen over and over again in the Tour’s many sprint stages so far. For these in-betweener, opportunist types, it may be a tough decision whether or not to try for a victory from the breakaway or from the peloton: I think the pack is the smarter choice here, but if a strong enough group makes the early move, it isn’t a given that the pack will reel them in.

Either from the break or the peloton, Orica-GreenEdge has cards to play for Stage 7 in Simon Gerrans and Michael Albasini. Gerrans would have been a top favorite for the stage, but I’m not sure he’s back to full strength after his crash in the Tour’s first stage. If he is recovered by the time the peloton sets out from Épernay, though, he will have an excellent chance at victory: the Milano-Sanremo and Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner loves long, grueling days, and he excels on late climbs. Michael Albasini will be a more than able alternative for OGE. He has been very explosive this year, putting in a nice performance on the steep final climb of La Fleche Wallonne and nabbing sprint victories aplenty in the Tour de Romandie.

Michal Kwiatkowski of OPQS always seems to be in the mix when a profile calls for an explosive finish. If any GC contenders decide to put the pressure on over Stage 7’s late bumps, expect Kwiatkowski to be right there at the end; he’s one of the two or three best sprinters of the General Classification riders. Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde is another. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema can be very explosive, and he’s underrated in the sprints even on a flat surface. Lampre’s Rui Costa loves to go on the attack on this sort of profile. And, of course, don’t rule out another attempted strike from yellow jersey wearer Vincenzo Nibali, who could see a steep ascent followed by a fast descent as a nice opportunity to pick up more time.

BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet just missed out on victory in the Tour’s second stage when the lead group allowed Nibali to escape, leaving 2nd place as the best possible result for those behind, but he’ll have another opportunity here to make it into a late move on the climb and then attempt outsprint anyone around him in the finish. The rider who broke Van Avermaet’s heart in the Tour of Flanders earlier this year, Fabian Cancellara, will also relish this opportunity: the long, challenging days are his forte, and he will enter Stage 7 with a deadly combination of good form (which he has shown on a number of stages so far) and plenty of motivation (having been unable to pick up a victory just yet).

Other riders who don’t mind a tough day of racing and who could look to escape from the pack, either in the day’s early break or late in the stage, include Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler and Cyril Gautier, Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin, IAM Cycling’s Sylvain Chavanel, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, OPQS’s Jan Bakelants, Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter, and Giant-Shimano’s Tom Dumoulin. Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez might have seen the late ascent as a nice opportunity to make a move, but he has not looked to be back to full strength just yet.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Alexander Kristoff | 3. Michal Kwiatkowski

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 7, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

July 10, 2014