VeloHuman

Tag: Favorites

  • Tour de France 2014: Stage 6 Preview

    Tour de France 2014: Stage 6 Preview

    Stage 6 Profile

    Stage 6: Arras › Reims – 194 km

    Following a brutal, rain-soaked fifth stage that saw defending Tour de France champion Chris Froome abandon the race and former cyclocross World Champion Lars Boom take a win, the peloton will breathe a collective sigh of relief for Stage 6. It’s another mostly flat day. There are only two categorized climbs on the menu, both of them Category 4s and far enough from the finish line that they’re unlikely to put anyone into too much trouble. The parcours should bring on another sprint finale. An excess of roundabouts and then a few turns as the stage nears the Reims finish line will make for a bit of a hectic run-in, but the stage closes out with a long straightaway that will likely lead to a very high-speed finale.

    Naturally, Marcel Kittel will be the day’s big favorite. On the Tour’s fourth stage, things were much closer in the sprint finish than they had been in earlier stages, but Kittel still emerged as the victor. He is likely to pick up another win here. He has the strong team to guide him to the straightaway, where his opponents will have difficulty matching his unrivalled top speed in what projects to be a very fast finish. It would be a surprise if anyone outguns Kittel for Stage 6 in Reims. John Degenkolb will play his usual role as Giant-Shimano’s strong second option if anything happens to Kittel.

    Andre Greipel, at his best, has a top speed that at least comes close to that of his countryman Kittel, but he has struggled to get in position for the bunch gallops so far in the Tour de France and has yet to really contest a stage. Leadout man Greg Henderson has abandoned the race, which will make things even tougher for Greipel, and the possibility of rain could lead to continued difficulty in getting into a comfortable position for the finale. It’s very hard to project Greipel’s performance right now; just a few weeks ago he was looking great across a number of races, but he seems to be missing something in this Tour de France.

    Peter Sagan may have only landed 4th on Stage 4’s sprint finish after a pair of 2nd place results in the previous bunch sprints, but that 4th place came after crashing in the last half hour of racing. He still looks like a strong contender behind Kittel, assuming he isn’t too exhausted after a long day in the lead group on the cobbles. Alexander Kristoff finally made it to the finish without any serious misfortune along the way on the Tour’s fourth stage and he very nearly won the day, getting just pipped at the line. Of course, misfortune aplenty struck on the fifth stage of the race, as crashes put him out of contention early, but Stage 6 will be a fresh opportunity. Given the potential for more rain (he tends to cope with bad weather very well), Kristoff should be in the mix.

    FDJ’s Arnaud Demare looks to be coming around for the sprints after struggling with wrist pain early on. He should contend on Stage 6, as should Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, who has been in the Top 5 of every bunch sprint so far. He may not have much team support to guide him to the finish, but if he can make it to the last kilometer at the head of affairs he will be very dangerous.

    Mark Renshaw of OPQS showed off his excellent overall form on the cobbled fifth stage, and he has filled in admirably as Cav’s replacement in the sprints. Another strong result could be in the cards for him on Stage 6. Trek’s Danny van Poppel, Movistar’s JJ Rojas, Lampre-Meridas’s Davide Cimolai, IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, and Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas will be other fringe contenders.

    VeloHuman Stage Favorites

    1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Peter Sagan | 3. Andre Greipel

    Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 6, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

    -Dane Cash

  • Tour de France 2014: Stage 5 Preview

    Tour de France 2014: Stage 5 Preview

    Stage 5 Profile

    Stage 5: Ypres › Arenberg Porte du Hainaut – 155.5 km

    Though Marcel Kittel’s unsurprising victory in a bunch sprint might suggest that the Tour’s fourth stage was an uneventful one, Chris Froome, Bauke Mollema, Niki Terpstra, and a number of Lotto Belisol leadout men were among the many riders to hit the deck on the day. Unfortunately for them, there will not be much time to recover from any injuries they may have sustained in their crashes, as one of the Tour’s most anticipated and potentially dangerous days awaits. Stage 5 is unique among the twenty-one stages of the Tour de France in that it features several stretches of cobbled roads. While the profile may be mostly flat, the peloton must overcome nine cobbled sectors, which begin at around the 87 km mark and then appear intermittently most of the way to the finish. Some of them are particularly difficult: Stage 5 includes visits to many of the most famous challenges ridden in the spring’s Paris-Roubaix, including sections of the Carrefour de l’Arbre and the Mons-en-Pévèle. The penultimate cobbled sector, Wandignies-Hamage à Hornaing, is the day’s longest at 3.7 km, and it comes less than 20 km from the finish. On top of the tough parcours, it may rain, which would make things even more hectic.

    On cobbles as difficult as these, punctures and mechanicals could wreak havoc on the peloton, threatening to end the GC hopes of those unfortunate enough to hit trouble. Most of those GC riders are particularly light, and therefore, even more susceptible to being bounced around on the bumpy roads. While they are holding on for dear life, a different group of riders will be locked in to hunt the stage victory. The stars of the spring Classics will have a rare opportunity to shine in a Grand Tour on Stage 5, and on their favored terrain they’re certain to make this an interesting race. A constant flow of attacks and counter-attacks is likely. Excellent bike handling skills and the ability to keep up with repeated accelerations getting into position for each cobbled sector will be crucial, just as they are in the Spring. It is important to note, however, that Stage 5 is nowhere near the length of Paris-Roubaix. At 155.5 kilometers, the bumpy road to the finish line will not wear out the pack in just the same way that more than 250 km of racing would.

    As such, while the powerful, aggressive classics stars will certainly feature prominently on Stage 5, the day is simply not difficult enough for a successful attack by a cobblestone specialist to be the only likely outcome. The cobbles will whittle down the peloton, but it is possible that this ends in a reduced sprint among the more capable quick men. With the outcome so difficult to predict, there is no clear favorite, though there are several riders who should be considered strong contenders.

    Fabian Cancellara is an obvious candidate to make a move on the cobbles. The three-time Paris-Roubaix winner had another excellent spring campaign in 2014 and he has looked good so far in this race. With so many teams focused on getting their GC leader safely to the finish, Cancellara could put in a dig from far out and remain solo all the way to the line; he certainly seems to be the likeliest candidate for an escape victory. What sets him apart here from the many classics-specialists here is his varied toolset; he is much more than a cobbled specialist, with soloing ability almost unrivaled in the peloton and a decent finishing kick as well, should he come to the line with a group. As this stage is not as long or as difficult as the spring classics, that broad toolset could be pivotal.

    BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet is always a likely attacker on difficult roads, and he has the extra-motivation of being well-positioned on GC; a small gap to those around him on the leaderboard could put him into yellow. Belkin’s Sep Vanmarcke is another of the classics specialists who will hope to get away; he has made a name for himself with terrific cobbled performances over the last two years, though victories in the biggest races have eluded him, as he has often found himself just behind Fabian Cancellara at the finish line. This will be a nice opportunity. Teammate Lars Boom will be a powerful ally and potential alternative; he’s strong on the cobbles but also very quick in a finish if he needs to be.

    Niki Terpstra of OPQS, winner of the 2014 Paris-Roubaix, will hopefully be feeling up for some aggressive riding the day after a crash. Jens Keukeleire and Matt Hayman of Orica-GreenEdge make a nice 1-2 for the cobbles, and OGE knows how to get off the front of the pack on a tough day. Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Roelandts and possibly Tony Gallopin, IAM Cycling’s Sylvain Chavanel, Garmin’s Johan Van Summeren and Sebastian Langeveld, Katusha’s Luca Paolini, and possibly even Sky’s Geraint Thomas are other potential aggressors who know their way around a cobbled parcours.

    I think the long-distance attacker types will be most concerned not with each other, but with the potential for some of the more versatile sprinters to survive to the finish. Peter Sagan is more than capable of handling cobbled roads, and he is the first pick of the fast men who might be able to hold on for a sprint finish. He has finished in the Top 6 of every cobbled classic on the WorldTour calendar already in his young career. His biggest challenge in his spring campaigns has been the particularly long races, and he won’t have to worry about that here. He’s also capable of putting in a solo move of his own. I think he will have an excellent chance to pick up his first 2014 Tour de France victory on Stage 5.

    John Degenkolb, winner of this year’s Gent-Wevelgem and 2nd in Paris-Roubaix, will also have his sights set on this stage victory. If he can get those sorts of results in the more difficult spring races, he should have a great opportunity for more success here. Given the parcours, Giant-Shimano should back his ambitions over Marcel Kittel‘s on Stage 5, and that bodes well for Degenkolb’s chances. He has looked very fast all year, and although he didn’t win any stages in the recent Tour of California, he was inches away from besting Mark Cavendish twice. If he can stay at the front of affairs and if this stage does come down to a sprint, that sort of speed will make Degenkolb a top contender.

    Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff, constantly among the top sprinters in the spring in the past two years, and FDJ’s Arnaud Demare, 2nd at the 2014 edition of Gent-Wevelgem, could also be there at the end. Both showed off excellent speed in the Stage 4 finish behind Marcel Kittel.

    IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler isn’t the rider he once was, but he has put up some decent results in the sprints here so far. Garmin’s versatile Ramunas Navardauskas, Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, and Trek’s Danny van Poppel will try their best to hold on to the end. OPQS’s Michal Kwiatkowski is always a name worth mentioning on a difficult day that could end in a reduced sprint; his team will be doing their best to keep him as close to the front as possible anyway. It’s not completely out of the question that Andre Greipel hangs on to the line, but it seems unlikely, especially if it rains.

    As the battle for stage supremacy rages around them, the lightweight GC riders will be doing their best to stay upright. This is a stage that could end a contender’s yellow jersey hopes in an instant. Whatever happens, Stage 5 should offer plenty of drama. It’s not one to miss.

    VeloHuman Stage Favorites

    1. Peter Sagan | 2. John Degenkolb | 3. Fabian Cancellara

    Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up soon after the conclusion of Stage 5, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

    -Dane Cash

  • Tour de France 2014: Stage 4 Preview

    Tour de France 2014: Stage 4 Preview

    Stage 4 Profile

    Stage 4: Le Touquet-Paris-Plage › Lille – 163.5 km

    The Tour de France closed out its visit to England in style, with a sprint finale on The Mall won, somewhat predictably, by Marcel Kittel. Now, the Tour heads home to France. While the locale maybe changing, the profile is staying mostly the same for Stage 4; another flat stage is on tap. Two Cat. 4 climbs, one early in the day and one coming with more than 40 km remaining, are the only categorized uphill challenges on the menu. It is more than likely that the 163.5 km Stage 4 will be another for the sprinters.

    Marcel Kittel remains the class of the sprinting bunch. It’s hard for anyone to come close to the young German star, given his deadly combination of being the fastest rider here and having the best leadout train in the race. He won the Tour’s third stage easily and he will be the favorite again for what looks to be an uncomplicated Stage 4.

    Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel was out of position in the Stage 3 finale and, therefore, we still haven’t really had an opportunity to see him matched up against compatriot Kittel at the finish line. Lotto does have a very good leadout but they have not been in the best position when it’s really mattered in the two sprint stages the Tour has offered so far. I still see Greipel as Kittel’s main challenger, though, and if he and his team can get it right for Stage 4, Kittel may actually have some competition on his hands.

    Peter Sagan remains my third favorite for the sprints. For whatever reason, a number of observers feel the need to point out on every flat stage that pure sprints aren’t really his thing, which is far from the truth. He may not have the top speed of Kittel or Greipel, but behind those two riders, he is probably the best sprinter here, with plenty of victories on pan flat stages in his career. His versatility seems to make people forget that he is, in fact, elite in the bunch sprints, extremely fast and also adept at positioning himself. Those abilities have allowed him to come in 2nd to Kittel on two of the three stages in this race so far; he was right behind Kittel but well ahead of everyone else in London. Should his German rivals hit misfortune or find themselves out of position, Sagan will have a great opportunity to take a win on Stage 4.

    Europcar’s Bryan Coquard now has a pair of 4th places to his name in this Tour de France. He still needs to improve his positioning and he does not have a lot of leadout support, but he is finally starting to deliver on the promise he has been showing at the lower levels.

    FDJ’s Arnaud Demare is a very talented sprinter but he is apparently suffering from wrist pain. If he can get back to 100%, he’ll be a top contender again. For all his success this year, Alexander Kristoff has hit misfortune surprisingly often. He was slowed by the crash on Stage 1 and had to expend energy in the third stage to overcome a late mechanical. He has the speed to be considered a strong challenger in the sprints when things go right for him. Mark Renshaw was a very impressive 3rd on The Mall, taking advantage of a rare opportunity to sprint for himself. He benefits from the strong OPQS leadout and should continue to put up nice results on the flat days. Trek’s Danny van Poppel, IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, and Movistar’s JJ Rojas will again hope to play spoiler to the bigger favorites, and Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb remains an excellent alternative for his team in the event that Kittel hits trouble along the way to the finish.

    VeloHuman Stage Favorites

    1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Andre Greipel | 3. Peter Sagan

    Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up soon after the conclusion of Stage 4, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

    -Dane Cash

  • Tour de France 2014: Stage 3 Preview

    Tour de France 2014: Stage 3 Preview

    Stage 3 Profile

    Stage 3: Cambridge › London – 155 km

    A pancake-flat Stage 3 will be a welcome change for the peloton after a day of challenging climbs that dropped the big name sprinters early and allowed Vincenzo Nibali to attack a tired lead group in the final kilometer for the stage win. On the third day of the Tour de France, the peloton travels from Cambridge to London without a single categorized climb on the menu, and at 155 kilometers, it’s won’t be a particularly long ride either. While the motivation to get out in front of the pack for some TV time will be very high on the Tour’s final day in England, anything but a sprint finish on this profile would be a big surprise. Still, after the race enters London, things get a bit technical on the way to the finishing straight on The Mall; there is a pair of right-hand turns within the final kilometer where things could get hectic. The fight to get positioned for the closing moments of Stage 3 will be fierce, and anyone with hopes of winning this stage will have to brave a dangerous stretch at the head of the pack at the end of the day.

    With Mark Cavendish out of the race following his opening stage crash, Marcel Kittel‘s hold on the title of sprinter favorite becomes that much stronger. His leadout train took their time to get set up on Stage 1, but when it mattered they put Kittel at the front and in position win the day. With that leadout, and his elite ability and form, he is the man to beat on Stage 3. Unfortunately, the carnage on Day 1 robbed us of the opportunity to see Kittel matched up at full speed against the rider who is his only likely rival in this type of stage, Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel. Though the aforementioned crash in Harrogate did not bring Greipel down, it did slow him enough to take him out of contention. He has another chance here. He has certainly looked strong in the past few weeks, taking the German National Championship against Kittel’s teammate Degenkolb, but beating Kittel himself will be a tall order. If anyone can do it, however, it’s Andre Greipel; behind the two German stars there is a clear dropoff in sprinting ability to the next few contenders.

    Nevertheless, anything can happen with this technical finish, and there are several other fast men who will be gunning for this one just as hard as the two favorites. Cannondale’s Peter Sagan is obviously one of those contenders. He was a strong 2nd to Kittel on the opening stage, and after allowing a great opportunity for a victory to get away from him in the final moments of Stage 2, he will be hungry for another shot at a win, and certainly for more Green Jersey points, here on Stage 3. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard has looked impressive at both the finish line and in the intermediate sprints so far, and he will look for more success here. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare and Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff should place highly. Trek’s Danny van Poppel, Movistar’s JJ Rojas, IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, Lampre’s Maximiliano Richeze (Sacha Modolo has unfortunately abandoned the race with a fever), and AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin will hope to get into the mix. As usual, Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb will become a strong contender if anything should happen to team leader Marcel Kittel. Omega Pharma-Quick Step is in an interesting situation: they still have an excellent leadout even though they are missing their top sprinter. Whomever they decide to put forward for the sprint, Alessandro Petacchi or Mark Renshaw, or even Matteo Trentin or Michal Kwiatkowski, he will have a strong support squad in the Stage 3 finale.

    VeloHuman Stage Favorites

    1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Andre Greipel | 3. Peter Sagan

    Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up soon after the conclusion of Stage 3, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

    -Dane Cash

  • Tour de France 2014: Stage 2 Preview

    Tour de France 2014: Stage 2 Preview

    Stage 2 Profile

    Stage 2: York › Sheffield – 201 km

    After a chaotic finale that saw Mark Cavendish and Simon Gerrans hit the deck very hard and Marcel Kittel ride on to win the day, the opening stage of the 2014 Tour de France is officially in the books. The excitement should continue on Stage 2, and hopefully for more positive reasons. As wild as the finish to the first stage was, for most of the day the riding was pretty tame, as a flat profile led to a mostly controlled journey, but things will be quite different on the second stage. Undulating is too gentle a word for the profile. With seven categorized climbs in the final 90 kilometers, all of them at 6% or greater, and a few uncategorized ascents climb to boot, Stage 2 has the look of an Ardennes Classic. The last four categorized ascents come in quick succession, closing out with the Jenkin Road climb with just 5 kilometers remaining. It is only 800 meters long but at a wicked 10.8% average grade. The barrage of late uphill tests are sure to inspire attacks. And while it obviously isn’t as long as Liege-Bastogne-Liege, it is the second longest stage in the first two weeks of the race at 201 kilometers; anyone still searching for Grand Tour form could get worn down and found out early. The high mountains may still be a ways off, but Stage 2’s journey from York to Sheffield should offer plenty of fireworks.

    Given the profile, it seems likely that the stage will come down to either a late attack, or a sprint among the day’s survivors. As early as it is in the Tour de France, the former will be hard-earned, as the GC squads will be determined to deny any opportunists a chance to get ahead. However things play out, the explosive, well-rounded types with the versatility to win either in a late move or from a reduced sprint will be the favorites for victory.

    Cannondale’s Peter Sagan will be the top favorite for Stage 2. Unlike most of his sprinting rivals, he should be able to handle the constant up-and-down, and he has the ability to win the day with an aggressive strike or from a sprint. This stage looks made for his versatile array of talents, and he proved in the Tour de Suisse and again in the first stage that he’s on excellent all-around form right now.

    Orica-GreenEdge’s Simon Gerrans is another top contender, for many of the same reasons, with the biggest question mark being his health following his crash. The 2014 Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner relishes a profile like this, with plenty of opportunities to attack, or at least to whittle down the pack. An excellent puncheur, he will be one of the most dangerous men in the peloton if he does decide to make a late move, but don’t underestimate his sprint either: he actually defeated Sagan in a reduced sprint in the 2013 Tour de France. Unfortunately, his hard fall near the Harrogate finish line will cloud his chances for Stage 2; it’s hard to know how well he will feel after such a bad crash. Teammate Michael Albasini could be another option, especially as a card to play on the late climbs.

    Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde, one of the most successful Ardennes riders of his generation, is an obvious choice here; for him, motivation could be the determining factor. While he, too, could contend for Stage 2 in a variety of ways, he may be more concerned with staying safe for GC. If he does decide to get into the mix, he will be a strong candidate for victory.

    Behind Gerrans and Valverde at Liege-Bastogne-Liege was Michal Kwiatkowski of Omega Pharma-Quick Step. He has all the tools for success, but his form is questionable right now. If he’s feeling good, he will be a contender. GC riders other than Valverde and Kwiatkowski who could find themselves among the favorites if the pack really starts to thin out include Bauke Mollema and Rui Costa.

    The difficult profile, and the likelihood of an animated race, will probably be too much for “pure” sprinters Marcel Kittel and Andre Greipel. (Mark Cavendish may be out of the race with a shoulder injury after his crash; even if he makes the start it seems unlikely that he’ll be capable of contending). Obviously if one of the big sprinters is there at the finish, he will be a favorite, but it will be a big ask. Kittel’s teammate John Degenkolb, however, leads a select group of non-Sagan sprinters who at least have a chance of surviving the difficult day. Also in this group are Movistar’s JJ Rojas, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati, and FDJ’s Arnaud Demare and, to a lesser extent, Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff and Lampre-Merida’s Sacha Modolo. I wouldn’t really call him a sprinter, but fast-finishing Ramunas Navardauskas (3rd on the opening stage) could excel in a reduced sprint as well.

    Quite a few riders stand out as potential protagonists for late attacks. Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin, Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler, and, if he is feeling up to it, Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez will like the short, steep challenges that Stage 2 has to offer. Fabian Cancellara, Sylvain Chavanel, Greg Van Avermaet, Jan Bakelants, and Geraint Thomas are all strong soloists with the climbing legs to put in a long distance strike.

    VeloHuman Stage Favorites

    1. Peter Sagan | 2. Simon Gerrans | 3. Michal Kwiatkowski

    Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The preview of Stage 3 will be up soon after the conclusion of Stage 2, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.

  • Tour de France 2014: Stage 1 Preview

    Tour de France 2014: Stage 1 Preview

    Stage 1 Profile Feature

    Stage 1: Leeds › Harrogate – 190.5 km

    The long wait for the Grand Départ of the 2014 Tour de France is over, and that means it’s time for the Stage 1 Preview as well! In case you missed the overall race preview, you can find it here. As a note: I’ll be previewing every stage of the race, all the way to the Champs-Élysées, so you can check back every day for stage profiles and picks. You can also follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more live analysis during the race.

    The opening stage of the 101st Tour is a mostly flat trip through Yorkshire. The peloton will take on a Category 4 climb and then a pair of Cat. 3s in the middle of the stage, but the bumps in the road aren’t likely to trouble anyone. 50 kilometers of generally flat roads lead into the finish, practically guaranteeing that this will be a stage for the sprinters. There is a roundabout with around 2 kilometers to go, but after that it’s a pretty straight shot to the line, meaning that the fast men will be truly flying in the final few moments. Though the high speed run-in to the finish will make it hard to tell that the riders are on a slope, the road does kick uphill a bit over the last kilometer.

    The Tour de France quite often starts with a time trial, essentially denying the sprinters any opportunity to wear the yellow jersey during the race, but when things kick off with a mass-start road stage instead, the competition for a day in the sport’s most recognizable piece of clothing is fierce. The opening few days of a Grand Tour are already frenzied enough, and with riders going all out for the maillot jaune while they still have a shot, it could get hectic out there.

    Given the profile, it seems likely that this stage and the coveted prize on offer will come down to a shootout between the sport’s three fastest sprinters: Giant-Shimano’s Marcel Kittel, Omega Pharma-Quick Step’s Mark Cavendish, and Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel.

    I see Kittel and Cavendish as neck and neck on this one, with Greipel close behind. Kittel’s performance in last year’s Tour de France established him as sprinting’s new top man, and he’s followed up with some nice victories this year. He was head and shoulders above the competition in the Giro d’Italia before abandoning with illness. Of particular interest in his limited time in that race was his Stage 3 victory, in which he closed a ridiculous gap in the final hundred meters to overcome a serious positioning deficit and take the win. It showed just how strong he is this year even when things don’t really go as planned for his team; that strength is all the more fearsome when Giant-Shimano’s awesome leadout squad hits their mark, and they usually do. Koen de Kort, Tom Veelers, Roy Curvers, and the extremely-fast John Degenkolb make for a stellar train, and they all work very well together. In what is likely to be a very high speed finale, Kittel will be hard to beat on Stage 1.

    Mark Cavendish will be going full gas to win this stage and the yellow jersey on British roads, and he is Kittel’s chief opponent. On paper, his leadout should be quite strong, but they haven’t really put it all together yet this year. Still, Cav has taken several nice wins this season to show that he’s on form, and unlike last year, there will be no question of post-Giro fatigue. I’m not sure his top-end speed matches Kittel’s but the slight uphill gradient may be more favorable to the Manx Missile, who is considerably lighter than his chief rival. Motivation will also be sky-high. These two should be neck and neck.

    I think Andre Greipel’s chances are being a bit underrated by the bookies. Like Kittel, he benefits from a leadout that usually delivers him to the finish-line with machine-like precision. He will also be coming into this race with the confidence of having just won the German National Road Race Championship and a host of other victories all year. And despite his massive legs, Greipel has shown that he can succeed even on slight uphill gradients in the final few hundred meters. He should be a real contender for Stage 1.

    After Stages 1 and 3, we should have a better idea of which of the big three is fastest right now, but until then, it’s hard to name a favorite of them with much certainty. There will also be a few other names in the mix, and given the increased likelihood for crashes on a hectic opening stage sprint, outsiders could find themselves battling for the win at a moment’s notice. Cannondale’s Peter Sagan generally seems locked in for the Top 5 on these sorts of stages but rarely actually contests the victory when Kittel, Cavendish, and Greipel are involved; however, the somewhat uphill finish will suit him nicely and it could give him an edge. The same is true for FDJ’s Arnaud Demare, who is on fire right now. It’s possible that Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb finds himself sprinting for the victory (if something happens to Kittel, or if, for whatever reason, his team decides to back him instead), and in that scenario, Degenkolb will be very dangerous here as well. Lampre-Merida’s Sacha Modolo took his first WorldTour win in the Tour de Suisse last month and this finish suits him perfectly. Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff, Trek’s Danny van Poppel, Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, and Movistar’s JJ Rojas will be fringe contenders. Michael Matthews, unfortunately, suffered a training crash this week and his Tour start is now in doubt. Even if he does make the start, it seems unlikely that he’ll be able to be in the mix while still recovering; however, Orica-GreenEdge teammate Simon Gerrans could try his luck with this finish.

    VeloHuman Stage Favorites

    1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. Andre Greipel

    Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the Tour! The preview of Stage 2 will be up soon after the conclusion of Stage 1, so stay tuned. If you missed it, the overall race preview can be found here.

    -Dane Cash