Tag: Favorites

Stage 13: Bilbao › Urdax-Dantxarinea – 213.4km

Another day in the Basque Country, another lumpy parcours. The Vuelta’s 13th stage doesn’t have quite the challenge factor that Stage 12 had, but it will still provide opportunities for the attackers. Though the fourth and final categorized climb comes 50km from the finish, there are several uncategorized ascents en route to the line that could see a few sprinters dropped and a few moves launched.

I think the most likely outcome for Stage 13 is a slightly reduced sprint after some late aggressors have been reeled in. As such, I like Gianni Meersman‘s chances. He’s made a career out of strong performances on lumpy days that end in sprints, and this is a great parcours for him.

Fabio Felline was a bit of a disappointment in Stage 12, present for the sprint, but not particularly close to pulling off the win. He’ll have a shot at redemption in Stage 13, and he’ll have the added advantage of being fully capable of jumping into any late attacks that look promising; on the other hand, I’d like to see a bit more from him in the sprints before tabbing him as a top favorite again.

Philippe Gilbert is another candidate with a shot as an attacker or as in a reduced sprint. Ditto Luis León Sánchez.

Nikias Arndt and Kristian Sbaragli are potential contenders if a big enough group gets to the finish but that could be a tough ask. It seems just as likely that a roll of the dice by Zdenek Stybar, Thomas De Gendt, Pello Bilbao, or Jan Bakelants goes the distance.

VeloHuman Stage 13

1. Gianni Meersman | 2. Philippe Gilbert | 3. Fabio Felline

Stage 12: Los Corrales de Buelna › Bilbao – 193.2km

The Vuelta is headed into the Basque Country, and the terrain of stage 12 fits the bill. The two early climbs will put some tiredness into the legs in the bunch, and then two trips up a late Cat. 2 should lead to some action. The early breakers have a shot today, and so does anyone who tries to get away late. At the same time, the run-in to the line is flat, which makes a good sprint important.

Taking all those things into account, I’ve got a few punchy stagehunters in mind as favorites.

Fabio Felline is the first rider on the list. He shouldn’t have any trouble with the climbs, and his sprint is a big asset. One advantage he’ll have over a number of other likely contenders is his speed even on flat roads—he’s got nice climbing legs, but he’s a fast finisher even in a traditional bunch kick.

Gianluca Brambilla has a nice finish too, though his punchy climbing style will likely be his biggest ally, possibly allowing him to get away before the finale. The same is true of Luis León Sánchez.

Philippe Gilbert is definitely a rider to watch on this profile. He can win in several different scenarios, if the form is there.

Alejandro Valverde is a potential protagonist as well. He won’t be able to get into the early break, of course, but if the stage is ridden hard enough he could outsprint the rest of the big GC names at the end of the day.

Gianni Meersman is worth mentioning given his versatility—this is a tough stage but I don’t think it’s entirely impossible that he’ll survive to the line.

Pello Bilbao, Omar Fraile, Simon Yates, Thomas De Gendt, Simon Gerrans, and Jan Bakelants are others with a shot.

VeloHuman Stage 12 Favorites

1. Fabio Felline | 2. Philippe Gilbert | 3. Gianluca Brambilla

Stage 11: Colunga › Peña Cabarga – 168.6km

Now that the Vuelta peloton has enjoyed a rest day, GC action will resume with a tough finishing climb in stage 11. Of course, first, the riders will take on about 160 kilometers of flat (though terrifically scenic) coastal roads.

Once they hit the climb, things get hard quite quickly. It’s a 5.6km ascent with two steeper sections and a brief respite in the middle. There’s an 18% stretch in the final kilometer.

I’d imagine a break will get away early and open up a significant advantage, but it shouldn’t be too hard for the bunch to reel in a move in the run-up to the climb, so my main favorites for Stage 11 come from the GC contenders. I especially like a few riders a little ways down the leaderboard who might get a bit of room to roam on the way up the climb, as I wouldn’t be surprised if Nairo Quintana returns to his old habit of riding (too) conservatively in a Grand Tour.

Simon Yates has been great so far this Vuelta and he’s got the punch to thrive on a short climb like this. I would expect him to get some breathing room with an attack.

To a lesser degree I see Samuel Sánchez possibly playing a similar role. He’s a long way removed from Olympic gold, but he’s still got some power in those legs. Gianlcua Brambilla has done a nice job to say in the fight for a Top 10 in the race, and I think he’s got a shot if he makes a move here as well.

All that said, the big, marquee GC contenders could very well be gunning for the stage win here, and Quintana is probably the fave among them. His teammate Alejandro Valverde has a nice skillset for the climb too, but I think he’s all in for Quintana right now so I have a hard time seeing him crossing the line ahead of the red jersey. I think Chris Froome is more likely to be in that position. In fact, I’m probably more bullish on Froome than many others—I think he does just fine even on really steep gradients, even if he likes to drop off the back of a GC group early on. Esteban Chaves and Alberto Contador are of course worth watching as well.

If it comes down to the early breakaway, the long list of stage win candidates includes Robert Gesink, Hugh Carthy, Mathias Frank, Thomas De Gendt, Pierre Rolland, Joe Dombrowski, Tejay van Garderen, and Darwin Atapuma.

VeloHuman Stage 11 Favorites

1. Simon Yates | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Chris Froome

Stage 10: Lugones › Lagos de Covadonga – 188.7km

The last stage before the first rest day should be a good one. The first 140km will be relatively calm, but the finale is set to deliver GC action. The Cat. 1 Alto del Mirador del Fito will be a nice appetizer, 6.2km at 7.8%, but it’s the special-category Lagos de Covadonga climb that will really put the hurt on, nearly twice as long as the Mirador at 12.2km but almost as steep 7.2%.

It’s an irregular climb with plenty of extra steep stretches to motivate attacks, too, with none more challenging than the last few hundred meters, where the road kicks up over 17%. That won’t be a pleasant way to close out 10 straight days of racing.

The breakers will have a shot Monday, especially what with the way the peloton has given them so much breathing room up to this point in the race. However, this being a great chance for the overall contenders to pick up chunks of time on their rivals, and with a rest day on the horizon, it seems likely they’ll be far more interested in a making the race hard than they were in Stage 9.

After a quiet first week, Nairo Quintana made a loud statement in Stage 8. Until he shows weakness, it’s hard to pick against him on this climb as the race favorite. His teammate Alejandro Valverde might get involved too, though he didn’t looked quite as sharp in Stage 8 and this climb doesn’t suit him as much as the shorter challenges in the first week.

Chris Froome and Alberto Contador figure to be Quintana’s main rivals. Their big engines are much better tailored to the Covadonga climb than anything we’ve seen so far in the race. I’d probably rate Froome’s chances as slightly better than Contador’s because, as I say at every opportunity, he’s got a higher ceiling on a good day—but it’s close. Esteban Chaves, Samuel Sánchez, Darwin Atapuma, and Simon Yates are others to watch out of the main bunch, though it’s hard to see any of them matching the heavyweights on this climb.

From the breakaway, keep an eye on José Goncalves, Rubén Fernandez, Lilian Calmejane, Pierre Rolland, Joe Dombrowski, and Robert Gesink.

VeloHuman Stage 10 Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Alberto Contador

Stage 9: Cistierna › Oviedo – 164.5km

Sunday’s stage is a tricky one to predict, with an up-and-down parcours that favors aggressive riding. The two Cat. 2s and three Cat. 3s are enough to favor the stronger climbers, though it’s hard to say whether it’ll be the GC men or the stagehunters leading the way at the line.

The final ascent of the Alto del Naranco, 5.7km at 6.1%, will likely draw some GC action, but none of the climbs are long or steep enough to motivate a serious chase in the peloton.

I think the breakers have a nice chance to take the victory, though it’s hard to name any one potential long-range protagonist who seems as likely to win as the one or two standout names who have a shot in the bunch.

Luis León Sánchez has been very active so far in this Vuelta en route to a pair of top 5 finishes, and this stage suits his talents well. Astana should be all in for stage wins, which means Sánchez should be looking for opportunities to either get into the early, or a late move on the final climbs.

José Goncalves has been active as well. I think it’s only a matter of time before he makes it into the right escape. He’s got a nice punchy finish that will come in handy if he’s near the front at the end of the day.

Simon Clarke has made his presence known early on in the race and I expect him to continue to fight for any results he can—Cannondale needs them as the season is nearing its close. Jan Bakelants, Thomas De Gendt, Alexandre Geniez, Fabio Felline, and Philippe Gilbert are others to watch from afar.

Gianluca Brambilla is a strong candidate for stage success who falls somewhere near the dividing line between the GC men and the stagehunters. He’s too close on GC to be ignored in an early breakaway, but he has the potential to get into a long-range move if one gets clear within the last 50km or so.

Alejandro Valverde is the obvious favorite for a GC-oriented battle. The climb isn’t hard enough to blow the red jersey group apart, and Valverde’s sprint makes him deadly. His teammate Daniel Moreno and countryman Samuel Sánchez also have potential in a punchy finish, as does Simon Yates. Nairo Quintana, Chris Froome, and Esteban Chaves are all worth keeping an eye on as well, of course, but I’d be surprised to see any of them taking the stage victory on this final climb.

VeloHuman Stage 9 Favorites

1. Luis León Sánchez | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Gianluca Brambilla