Tag: Favoritos

Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 8 Preview

Stage 8: Baeza › Albacete – 207 km

After a bumpy Stage 7 won by Alessandro Di Marchi, and with Sunday’s mountain stage looming, the peloton will get to enjoy a day of flat roads on Stage 8. There isn’t a single categorized climb on the road from Baeza to Albacete, and the final 60 kilometers are more or less downhill, though there is a short uphill section of less than a kilometer right around the 3-km-to-go mark. There are a few roundabouts and some hard corners, but then the final 900 meters run straight to the line. Overall, Stage 8 is the longest stage in this Vuelta at 207 kilometers, but without many uphill challenges, the length of the route shouldn’t alter the outcome too drastically.

A sprint finish seems more than likely on the profile, setting up another probable showdown between FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni and Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb. There are reasons to like both for stage honors. Degenkolb took the most recent head-to-head battle on Stage 5, and even had Bouhanni made better positioning choices in the finale (he ended up boxed out on the barriers behind and to the outside of Degenkolb), it’s not totally a given that he would have passed the German anyway. Degenkolb is very fast right now, and a longer day than usual will further favor the Paris-Roubaix runner-up as well. Still, Bouhanni’s typically top-notch ability to fight for position will help as the peloton passes through a few late roundabouts. Moreover, Degenkolb hit the deck on Stage 7, and it’s unclear how he’ll feel the day after. If both riders are at their best, this should be very close, (and the duo is significantly faster than any of their other rivals), but Bouhanni has a slight edge as the favorite for Stage 8 with uncertainty around Degenkolb’s condition.

Familiar names make the list of other potential contenders. Roberto Ferrari, who has not made it to many sprint finishes yet in this race, should jump at this opportunity to contest a bunch gallop on a very flat stage. He is still quite fast. Belkin’s Moreno Hofland was 3rd behind Degenkolb and Bouhanni on Stage 5, showing his potential. Another good result could be in the cards here. The versatile Michael Matthews wants to do well on the pure sprint stages as well as the hilly ones, and although he hasn’t landed the kinds of results he’s hoped for on the flat days in this Vuelta a España just yet, he does have an impressive turn of speed. If he can nail down the timing and the positioning, he could be in the mix on Stage 8. Astana’s Andrea Guardini, IAM Cycling’s Matteo Pelucchi, and Lotto Belisol’s Jens Debusschere have not featured in the sprint finishes in this race as often as they would have hoped so far, but this parcours should put them in position to challenge for stage honors. Tom Boonen, Jasper Stuyven, Vicente Reynes, Yauheni Hutarovich, Oscar Gatto (or Peter Sagan, should he decide to go for it), Gerald Ciolek, and Francesco Lasca are others who could get involved in the probable bunch gallop to the line.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nacer Bouhanni | 2. John Degenkolb | 3. Roberto Ferrari

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 8, so stay tuned for more. Also, be sure to come back soon for the preview of the upcoming GP Ouest-France in Plouay, and in the meantime, check out VeloHuman’s recent interviews with two likely protagonists of that race, Giacomo Nizzolo of Trek Factory Racing and Ben Swift of Team Sky.

-Dane Cash

August 29, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: Alhendín › Alcaudete – 169 km

Alejandro Valverde won a tough Stage 6 that saw the first serious GC action of the race, as several big names lost ground on the day’s final ascent. Stage 7 shouldn’t be as decisive for the General Classification, but it is a hilly one, packed with smaller climbs that, when taken all together, will exact a toll on the legs, even if the profile may not look particularly brutal from a categorized climb standpoint. The peloton will at least be allowed to ease into the bumpy parcours with about 30 kilometers of relatively flat roads to start the stage, but after that it’s an undulating journey basically all the way to the line, starting with the Cat. 3 Alto de Illora. With around 60 kilometers to go, the riders will reach the bottom of the Alto Ahillo climb, a long slog of 12.1 kilometers at a 4% average grade, and the Cat. 2 will likely find out some tired legs at this point in the day. On the way up, the riders will pass through finishing city of Alcaudete for the first time. From the top of the climb, though, it’s still nearly 50 kilometers to the end of the stage, a stretch that is, by and large, mostly downhill, at least until about the 15-km-to-go mark, when the road gently angles upward again. The incline becomes more pronounced toward the very end of the day, with the final 5 kilometers averaging roughly 4%. The uphill finish is not categorized in any way, but it’s certainly steep enough to bring the punchier specialists to the fore.

The constantly up-and-down parcours of Stage 7, coupled with a finish that won’t be all that appetizing for the sprinters, will make this an enticing opportunity for the long-range opportunists. It will be difficult for the peloton to control the race with this profile, and motivation in the pack to do so may not be all that high, given the difficult finale. Still, it’s not a certainty that the escape will survive, thanks to an especially impressive list of quick men on this startlist who also have strong climbing legs; several teams do have riders who will find the possibility of a final uphill sprint to their liking, and if enough miss out on the break, the scales will tip in the favor of the pack.

As is the case on most breakaway-friendly days, there is no real outright favorite. A few names stand out as possible protagonists, however. Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge is certainly one. The Stage 7 finish suits him perfectly, with the gradient to slow the other quick men. If his team can keep the breakaway in check over the undulating profile, Matthews will be the rider to beat at the end of the day.

BMC’s Philippe Gilbert is another obvious candidate on this profile. In an uphill gallop, few are better, and he showed decent form placing 7th in Stage 5’s flatter finale. With the World Championships approaching, he is likely to get stronger and stronger as this race goes on.

Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb would prefer a slightly less steep final kilometer, but he’s still a dangerous option on this stage if things stay together for a sprint. His team has several strong engines for this sort of profile to give him support throughout the day.

As a team, Belkin has a lot of flexibility for this one, with several riders who could play joker to some more obvious candidates for stage honors. For one, Moreno Hofland is dangerous an uphill sprint. If he doesn’t make it to the line with the lead group, though, Paul Martens might, and the veteran German also has a quick finish. If things are too selective for both, GC man Wilco Kelderman packs a speedy kick of his own.

The list of other fast finishers who could contend for Stage 7 if the break is reeled in includes Lloyd Mondory, Filippo Pozzato, Vicente Reyes, Daniele Bennati, Jasper Stuyven and Fabio Felline, Tom Boonen, Gerald Ciolek, and possibly even Nacer Bouhanni, who is climbing reasonably well in this Vuelta. GC riders like Alejandro Valverde, Dan Martin, Daniel Moreno, Cadel Evans, and Joaquim Rodriguez could be in the mix as well.

Predicting who will try to win this stage from afar is quite difficult, but a few riders come to mind as potential contenders should they make it into a long-distance move. Alexandr Kolobnev will like the finish and he’s a rider who is capable of spending the day off the front. Luis Leon Sanchez has not featured too prominently in many big races lately, but this profile should suit his skillset and he could try to get into the day’s breakaway. Adam Hansen has shown an interest in getting out front in this Vuelta, and he should manage the climbs well. Tony Martin is a danger whenever the profile is friendly to solo artists. Peter Sagan has already tried to get into a break in this race, and this could be a day for him to try his legs again; Cannondale has Oscar Gatto and Damiano Caruso as well should Sagan not be up for this. Bob Jungels, Damiano Cunego, Anthony Roux, and Ronaldo Nocentini are just a few others who could have success on Stage 7 if they make it into a breakaway.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Michael Matthews | 2. Philippe Gilbert | 3. Alexandr Kolobnev

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 7, so stay tuned.

August 28, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Benalmádena › La Zubia – 167.1 km

John Degenkolb took a second straight sprint victory in Stage 5, but his sprinting rivals will have to wait a little while for a shot at revenge, as the Vuelta hits its first serious uphill test in Stage 6. Things will start out calm, as the peloton will set out from Benalmádena and take on over almost 50 kilometers of relatively flat coastal roads before heading inland. Not long after the route changes direction, the road kicks upward to climb the Alto de Zafarraya, a challenging Category 2 of 12.3 kilometers at 5.7%. After the KOM point, the climbing continues on and off over a stretch of rolling roads (with the Category 3 Alto de los Bermejales among the uphill sections that the pack must overcome). Things flatten out again with about 40 km to go, and they stay that way for a while as the peloton heads toward Granada. The riders will pass through the outskirts of town and then the city proper, hitting a pair of intermediate sprint points along the way, but then the route will take them southeast to challenging finale on the Alto Cumbres Verdes, the first Category 1 climb of the Vuelta a España. It is only 4.6 kilometers in length, but it has an average gradient of 7.8%, and that number doesn’t tell the whole story either. Things get particularly steep after the first kilometer, with a significant stretch that hits almost 13% coming between kilometers 1 and 2, and not a whole lot of respite after that, as things stay very steep all the way to the line.

The first real climbers’ day of the Vuelta, Stage 6 should see some GC action on the final slopes. The Cumbres Verdes climb is a tough enough uphill test to open up gaps between the finishers, and the top contenders for the red jersey will want to making strong opening statements on the high gradients.

The day’s breakaway will have a chance of going the distance on the profile, but they will also have a few factors weighing against them. A very long section of flat before the final climb will significantly boost the chances of the chasing pack, and the punchy GC riders will have extra motivation to reel in anyone up the road thanks to the bonus seconds on offer at the finish. If the red jersey hunters spend the final hour of the race watching each other and not injecting the pace, a strong rider off the front will have a nice opportunity for stage honors, but otherwise, a showdown among the big-name climbers should be on tap.

Though the final few kilometers are very steep, this is a short climb, and that will play into the hands of the riders who can find an extra gear for a brief charge up a high gradient. Joaquim Rodriguez will love this finish. He is on terrific form right now and with motivation through the roof, he’ll be hard to beat on this terrain. Teammate Daniel Moreno is also particularly well-suited to this challenging ascent.

Movistar’s Nairo Quintana would prefer a longer finishing climb, but he has the skillset to pull out an advantage whenever the gradient nears 10%, and with the form he showed in the Vuelta a Burgos, he will be hard to catch if he goes on the attack in the Stage 6. Like Purito, Quintana also has a particularly dangerous teammate in Alejandro Valverde, who lost a few seconds on Stage 3 and will be eager to get back onto the same time as Quintana. It won’t be easy to counter Movistar’s one-two punch.

Chris Froome showed on Stage 3 that he’s feeling strong in this Vuelta, and he knows he can’t afford to wait to gain ground on his rivals after losing some time in the opening TTT, even though this isn’t the sort of long slogging climb that one might traditionally associate with his skillset. If he is truly at his best and planning on fighting for the overall victory in this race, he will be a strong contender on this stage.

Garmin-Sharp’s Dan Martin likes the high-gradient finales and showed with a near-victory on Stage 3 that he’s on great form. With Ryder Hesjedal and Andrew Talansky both essentially out of the GC picture after being caught out in crosswinds on Stage 5, Garmin will be fully committed to Martin’s ambitions in this race.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Alberto Contador has been downplaying his aspirations in this race, but he has not showed much weakness so far, and this will be an opportunity to see just how well he has recovered from his leg injury. Obviously, if he is in good shape, this steep summit finish suits him well. Fabio Aru is a terrific uphill charger who should like the Stage 6 profile, but form is a bit of an unknown right now. If he’s feeling strong, he’ll be dangerous. Rigoberto Uran‘s form is also a question mark, but if he’s at his best he should be able to be in the mix. Warren Barguil, Samuel Sanchez, Cadel Evans, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Wilco Kelderman, and Johan Esteban Chaves are others who could get involved for stage honors.

At this point in the race, with so many strong climbers still relatively well-placed on GC, there aren’t a whole lot of riders that stand out as strong long-range candidates on a climb like this. Julian Arredondo is one, but he has not appeared to be at full strength just yet (though if he does get out, he’ll obviously be a danger). Louis Meintjes, Adam Yates, Damiano Cunego, and Kenny Elissonde are others who might have a chance at Stage 6 if they are allowed up the road.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodriguez | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Chris Froome

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 6, so stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

August 27, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 5 Preview

Stage 5: Priego de Córdoba › Ronda – 180 km

After a Stage 4 won convincingly in a bunch sprint by John Degenkolb, Stage 5 of the Vuelta a España looks likely to be another one for the bunch gallopers. The pack will set out from Priego de Córdoba and then take on 150 kilometers without a single categorized climb before reaching the bottom of a lone Category 3. It’s a long uphill ride at 12.5 kilometers, but the average gradient is only a bit over 3%. From the top, it’s about 15 kilometers, mostly on a gentle downhill and without too many twists or turns, to the town of Ronda. The finishing straight is a little over half a kilometer in length, and very subtly uphill.

With a mountain stage looming, the sprinters will hope for one more chance at glory on Stage 5 before things start to get too difficult on the road. Their teams shouldn’t have too much trouble keeping things under control on this profile, and the day’s solitary categorized challenge isn’t particularly steep; it will be hard for anyone to get enough separation on the climb to hold out over a long flat run to the line. That said, it’s likely that some of the heavier sprinters could but put under a bit of pressure if the pace is high going over the Cat. 3; it’s not a legbreaker but riding on an incline for over 10 kilometers in this heat is not a comfortable trip for anyone.

Given the likelihood of a bunch finish, Stage 5 should come down to a high-speed showdown between Nacer Bouhanni and John Degenkolb. With a slight gradient in the final few hundred meters and fewer technical challenges in the run-in than were present on Stage 2 (challenges that might give the tenacious Bouhanni the positioning advantage), this looks like a good opportunity for Degenkolb to challenge the young Frenchman. Degenkolb will need every ounce of power he has, but he blew away the field on Stage 4, showing just how strong he is right now.

Michael Matthews is a fast finisher in any scenario and the very slight incline in the finale could give him an edge here. Astana’s Andrea Guardini had a great run-up to this Vuelta and in a sprinters’ battle royale, he’s a contender. Belkin’s Moreno Hofland is still gaining experience in the positioning game, but he beat both Degenkolb and Bouhanni in this year’s Paris-Nice and he looks strong right now, and Stage 5’s finish should suit him.

Lampre-Merida’s Roberto Ferrari is not one of the more versatile quick men in the pack, but if he can make it over the Cat. 3 without too much trouble, he should be in the mix as well for stage honors. In Maximiliano Richeze and Filippo Pozzato, Lampre does have an impressive squad of supporters or possible alternatives. IAM Cycling has a pair of nice options in Matteo Pelucchi and Stage 4 2nd place finisher Vicente Reynes. The list of other outside contenders for what is likely to be a sprint finish also includes Tom Boonen, Gerald Ciolek, Yauheni Hutarovich, Jasper Stuyven, Jens Debusschere, and Lloyd Mondory.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. John Degenkolb | 2. Nacer Bouhanni | 3. Michael Matthews

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 5, so stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

August 26, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 4 Preview

Stage 4: Mairena del Alcor › Córdoba – 164.7 km

The third stage of the Vuelta a España saw Michael Matthews outsprinting some real GC talents (among them, Dan Martin and Joaquim Rodriguez) to take a victory and the red jersey. Stage 4 is another in which the presence of some late uphill challenges could make things interesting. The stage starts out very flat, and continues that way for over a hundred kilometers. The first notable topograhic feature of the day, a Category 3 climb, will be crested at around kilometer 110. Then it’s another flat section before a Cat. 2 of about 8 km at an average gradient a little under 5% that kicks off at approximately kilometer 130. From the top there are only about 25 kilometers left on the stage, which will involve a flat section after the climb, a high-speed descent, and then a flat run-in to Córdoba and a very slightly uphill finishing drag.

As was the case on the third stage, there are several versatile fast-finishers here whose teams will be interested in keeping the day’s break in check for a sprint. The Category 2 climb won’t make it easy to control the race, but a concerted effort at organization will have a good chance at keeping any long-range hopefuls from getting too far ahead, especially with a few kilometers of flat before the finish. A group finish seems like a strong possibility, though the field may be reduced by the time the pack passes under the flamme rouge.

Nacer Bouhanni put in a very impressive ride on Stage 3 to finish 8th, ahead of several climbing powerhouses. His performance on the late incline shows considerable improvement in the climbing department, and while it won’t be an easy task to hold on over the Category 2 test on Stage 4, it would be unwise to count Bouhanni out the way he’s riding right now. If he makes it over the top with the pack, or at least close enough behind them to latch back on before the finish, he’ll be the odds-on favorite for the sprint.

While Bouhanni delivered a surprise performance on the third stage, John Degenkolb of Giant-Shimano struggled on the final slope. Bad days are a reality in this sport, though, and the challenges on the menu for Stage 4 look to be of the sort that Degenkolb can typically handle. If he holds on, and if this comes down to a sprint, he has few rivals in this race in terms of top speed.

Red jersey wearer Michael Matthews will hope the injection of uphill pace on the Cat. 2 will drop the purer sprinters. He’s obviously on top form now, and if the group is whittled down even a little, he’ll be a favorite in a reduced bunch.

Peter Sagan would be an obvious candidate for victory, but he does not appear to be interested in contesting stage wins in this race. Oscar Gatto seems to be the Cannondale’s designated rider, and this is a good profile for him.

Belkin’s Moreno Hofland is well-suited to sprints that follow hillier days. Teammate Paul Martens looked strong on Stage 3 as well. Lloyd Mondory is another versatile quick finisher who put in a good result (7th) on the third stage. Tom Boonen, Gerald Ciolek, Daniele Bennati, Jasper Stuyven, Filippo Pozzato, Philippe Gilbert, and Nathan Haas are others with nice finishing kicks who prefer the more difficult days, while Jens Debusschere, Andrea Guardini, Roberto Ferrari, Yauheni Hutarovich, and Matteo Pelucchi will all be among the top contenders if they can survive the bumpy journey to the line.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nacer Bouhanni | 2. John Degenkolb | 3. Michael Matthews

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 4, so stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

August 25, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 3 Preview

Stage 3: Cádiz › Arcos de la Frontera – 197.8 km

After a very flat second stage won, somewhat predictably, by Nacer Bouhanni, the peloton will take on a moderately bumpy Stage 3. The riders will enjoy approximately 80 kilometers of flat roads after they set out from the start (on an aircraft carrier, no less) in Cádiz before taking on a few hills in the middle of the stage. Following the journey up and over a series of Cat. 3 climbs, the riders will begin a long descent. After things flatten out, a short, uncategorized bump must be overcome with roughly 10 km to go, followed by a flat stretch that will last until a little bit after the peloton reaches the 2-km-to-go mark. Then things get interesting. The road kicks upward for most of the remainder of the journey to the line, only flattening out in the last few hundred meters. It’s not a categorized climb, but it’s enough of an incline to give the lighter riders a significant advantage. When the pack hits the slope, those who specialize in these sorts of ascents will drive a furious pace to put pressure on their heavier rivals. Some riders could try to launch their bid for glory early while the gradient is high, while the less able climbers will hope to hold on until things flatten out.

The parcours of Stage 3 should favor the more versatile fast finishers, the riders who are at their best sprinting for victory up a bit of an incline and at the end of a harder day in the saddle. An intermediate profile like this might look breakaway-friendly, but there are plenty of well-rounded quick men on this startlist who will find this stage well-suited to their talents, and their motivation to keep this together for a group finish will be high. A long, late flat section will help with a chase. The first uncategorized bump in the final 20 km might see a few attacks, but it’s not a difficult enough challenge to be a great launchpad, and it will be hard to stay away with another flat stretch to follow. The likeliest outcome here seems to be a group reaching the last uphill drag mostly intact to fight it out over the final two kilometers.

It’s hard to draw up a better profile for Peter Sagan than this. The climbs in the middle of Stage 3 will not be a problem for him, but some of his rivals for a sprint could suffer. Likely arriving relatively fresh at the finish line, he’ll appreciate the last uphill kick at the end of the day; he’s always fast, but his talents should be especially apparent in the fight for position that will occur in the last kilometer when the road is at a bit of a gradient. The Slovakian star doesn’t come without question marks though. He has said that he’s in this Vuelta a España to prepare for the World Championships, and he did a rare turn as a leadout man in Stage 2 rather than chasing victory himself. Stage 3 looks like a golden opportunity but his motivation is uncertain. Oscar Gatto is a decent alternative in place of Sagan should Cannondale decide to go in that direction.

John Degenkolb is another rider with a particular knack for this sort of profile. His top speed rivals Sagan’s, and unlike many other big-name sprinters of that caliber, he doesn’t lose his edge when the road tilts upward. If things hold together for a sprint at the end of Stage 3, Degenkolb will have a great chance at victory, and even if some of the punchier types try to create separation on the late incline, he’s shown before that he is strong enough to latch onto the right wheel to avoid being left behind when the road tilts upward.

Michael Matthews will love this parcours. His only complaint might be that Stage 3 isn’t bumpy enough in the middle of the day to cause more problems for other fast finishers, but either way, he’ll be a top favorite with an uphill stretch just before the line. His climbing legs have been amazing this year.

The final hundred meters may be flat, but the battle to be in front on the last uphill section will be critical for anyone hoping to take this stage, and nobody can charge uphill quite like BMC’s Philippe Gilbert. He will go full gas on the incline section and hope to get enough of an advantage to hold on for the win when things flatten out.

Alejandro Valverde of Movistar is another rider who can rely on his explosiveness to put space between himself and some of the heavier sprinters on the late climb. Katusha’s Daniel Moreno is on strong form for this Vuelta and could try the same, as might his teammates Joaquim Rodriguez and Alexandr Kolobnev.

Trek’s Fabian Cancellara is typically strong in a finish like this, but don’t count out his very impressive 22-year-old teammate Jasper Stuyven, 4th on Stage 2 and capable of handling a few hills. Fabio Felline crashed in the second stage, but normally this finish would suit him too. Filippo Pozzato, Daniel Martin, Moreno Hofland, Anthony Roux, Nathan Haas, Gerald Ciolek, Luis Leon Sanchez, Tom Boonen, and even Cadel Evans are others who could find Stage 3 to their liking. The profile may be a bit bumpy for Nacer Bouhanni, but his team did a great job taking care of him in the finale of the second stage and it’s not out of the question that he makes it to this finish in a good place.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. John Degenkolb | 2. Peter Sagan | 3. Michael Matthews

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 3, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall race preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

August 24, 2014