Tag: Favoritos

Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: Jódar › La Alpujarra – 191.1km

The first Cat. 1 summit finish of the 2015 Vuelta awaits on Stage 7. Like Thursday’s stage to Cazorla, Friday’s stage will put the peloton through another long day of rolling hills, but the finishing climb on Stage 7 is considerably more challenging.

For the first 170 kilometers of the day, the road takes on successive stretches of gradual climbs and gradual descents, with a single 9km Cat. 3 the most challenging of the many minor climb along the route. The final 20 kilometers of the stage, however, will offer a real test of uphill strength.

At around kilometer 170, the route angles upwards towards the official start of the Cat. 1 summit finish, the 18.7km Alto Capileira. The climb has an average gradient of 5%, but that doesn’t really tell the full story. The first 6 kilometers are a bit steeper than that average, and then the road flattens out for about 4km, and then it kicks up again for the rest of the way to the line. The final 9km angle upward at closer to 7%, with a particularly steep section near the finish of about 14%.

The Alto de Capileira will be hard enough to put the GC favorites to the test, with the irregular nature of the climb adding to the difficulty. Whether or not the red jersey hopefuls will be doing battle for the stage win as well as for positions on the overall leaderboard is another matter—the profile will be an appealing one for the breakaway. However, it will take a talented group to stay clear on such a tough day, and most of the top climbers in the Vuelta are still in relatively close GC contention, limiting the number of legitimate candidates for long-range success. I like the chances of the GC riders this early in the race.

Movistar’s two-pronged attack won’t be easy for anyone to counter. Alejandro Valverde has not been particularly aggressive so far in this race, relying on his fast finish to take his stage victory, but he has nevertheless looked strong. He knows the area, he is very motivated to build on his early advantage in the GC battle, and he can win with an attack or in a reduced sprint at the top of the climb if there is no separation at the line. Nairo Quintana may be more of a foil than anything right now. Obviously the two-time Tour de France runner-up is a major threat to win any stage with this sort of finish, but he has looked slightly less than 100% at this point in the race, and in the heat of southern Spain. He’s a danger, but more than anything his presence may boost Valverde’s chances.

A week ago I saw Fabio Aru as the favorite for Stage 7, but now I’m not sure how to judge his chances. He should be fresher than the rest of the top GC contenders in the Vuelta who are coming off the Tour de France, he showed nice form in the Tour of Poland, and this stage suits him perfectly, with a nice late launching pad that looks tailored to his skillset. However, he hasn’t looked quite as strong as expected so far in this race, so I can’t quite name him the outright favorite. Still, he’s an obvious candidate for success and it wouldn’t be any surprise if he attacked for the win. Mikel Landa could do damage as well on this climb.

Joaquim Rodríguez is another rider whose form is hard to judge right now—he has missed out on several opportunities so far in this Vuelta, letting others making successful attacks on stages that have seemed to suit him. But that may simply be because Rodríguez is focused entirely on the overall title, unwilling to risk his GC position in the hunt for stage wins. This stage certainly suits him. Daniel Moreno is another option for Katusha.

Chris Froome has quietly ridden very well in the early goings at the Vuelta. For whatever reason, many observers underrate Froome’s peak climbing ability, and I think some are underestimating him here. He’s not at his peak, of course, but if he’s even close to it he’s capable of leaving the entire peloton in the dust. Froome loves to make an early statement, and this is a prime opportunity to do just that on a long climb that suits him well. Nicolas Roche and Sergio Henao are other strong options for Sky.

Esteban Chaves has been brilliant so far in this Vuelta, and while both of his stage victories have involved an element of tactical boneheadedness from the likes of Katusha and Co., they wouldn’t have happened if Chaves weren’t on blazing form. This is a very long climb for the young Colombian to undertake but the likes of Valverde and Rodríguez have shown little interest in chasing him so far and that could be to his advantage yet again if he can survive the long road to the top and make a late strike.

Domenico Pozzovivo, Tejay van Garderen, Dan Martin, and Rafal Majka are others who could be in the mix for Stage 7.

As suggested for Stage 6, keep an eye on Caja Rural and Team Colombia for the likely breakaway contenders on Stage 7. It will be a tall order to hold off the pack on the Alto Capileira, but Pello Bilbao and Fabio Duarte are among those with a shot. Pierre Rolland, Joe Dombrowski, and Samuel Sánchez are other riders who could have success with a long-range strike.

VeloHuman Stage 7 Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Fabio Aru

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 7. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here.

August 27, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Córdoba › Sierra de Cazorla – 200.3km

The Vuelta peloton will be tested with another uphill finish on Stage 6, and it should be a real challenge despite there being just two Cat. 3 climbs the menu. It’s not a short stage at 200 kilometers and the finale will be a difficult one.

After 130 kilometers of rolling hills comes the first categorized climb of 12km at an average gradient of a little under 4%. It’s not much but it will put some fatigue into the legs. Following a few more rollers and a descent comes the long climb to the finish line, which will last a lot longer than the official categorized finale. Apart from a few moments where the road evens out, it’s uphill from a little more than 20km out all the way to the line, at an average gradient close to 2% for the entirety of the long uphill stretch, which gets more difficult at the end.

The categorized finale itself starts at around 3km to go, and the climb has an average gradient of well over 6%, with a double digit stretch about a kilometer in that could serve as a nice launching pad for an enterprising climber. The road winds left and right a few times up toward the finish, where the gradient is closer to 7%.

The breakaway has a chance at success on this profile but this early in the race there are plenty of potential contenders still in the GC hunt who should be able to reel in any long-range hopefuls on the lengthy climb toward the finish. Expect the red jersey favorites to go toe to toe in the finale, even if it is only a Cat. 3 ascent.

The length of the stage and the fact that the last 20km are almost all uphill should whittle down the peloton and leave only the specialists in contention. Katusha has two. Joaquim Rodríguez has missed out on more than one excellent opportunity already in this race, but he has looked strong enough from a form standpoint and this will be another chance for him to shine. He needs to be aggressive, but he’ll be heard to catch if he does launch an attack in the finale. Daniel Moreno is a strong alternative, especially if the pack is still together near the top of the climb.

Alejandro Valverde already has one stage win in the Vuelta and has a nice opportunity to take a second (and the accompanying bonus seconds) on Stage 6. He can follow attacks rather than making them because he has so a strong sprint, and that makes him dangerous. Nairo Quintana could be interested in going on the move as well.

Dan Martin isn’t always the best at positioning himself for a timely strike, but if he can work that out he’s got the chops to make a move in this finale. Like Purito, he hasn’t quite delivered on the two stages that have seemed to suit him so far in the Vuelta a España, but form doesn’t appear to be an issue.

Fabio Aru has not been the strongest yet in this race but he has the team to set him up for a late strike and explosiveness to execute, if he’s feeling strong. The same is true for teammate Mikel Landa.

Nicolas Roche has been Sky’s strongest performer so far and could get active again, though don’t count out Chris Froome. He’s quietly looking pretty strong in this race, and he always likes an early opportunity to make a show of authority in a Grand Tour. Sergio Henao is another strong option for the black and blue squad.

Rafal Majka, Esteban Chaves, Samuel Sánchez, Bart de Clercq, and Domenico Pozzovivo are other riders to keep an eye on for Stage 6. Tom Dumoulin will have his work cut out for him defending his red jersey on the steep inclines of the final few kilometers.

If the big GC favorites and their support riders spend too much time looking at each other, the opportunists will have a chance at long-range success, either from the early break or with a late move once the initial break has been swept up. The list of potential candidates for the victory in that scenario includes practically every rider on Team Colombia and Caja Rural. Pello Bilbao and Rodolfo Torres stand out as particularly strong options.

VeloHuman Stage 6 Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodríguez | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Dan Martin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 6. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here.

August 26, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 5 Preview

Stage 5: Rota › Alcalá de Guadaíra – 167.3km

The Vuelta’s fifth stage is another day of mostly flat roads leading to an uphill finish. There is not a single categorized climb on the menu. This one should come down to the very end of the stage, where the only really challenges of the day await—after 166 straightforward kilometers with very little in the way of climbing, the peloton will snake through a few corners and roundabouts before hitting an uphill drag of over 5% for the last 500 meters of the day.

The finishing climb is not categorized and it’s not difficult enough to favor an attacker or cause much separation. It will, however, give a slight advantage to the more well-rounded of the fast finishers in the Vuelta peloton.

Peter Sagan will be a favored contender for a third straight day. This finish suits him better than any yet in the Vuelta. It’s not so steep as to give the climbing specialists an edge, but it will definitely put the heavier pure sprinters at a disadvantage. Stage 5 is tailormade for Sagan, and what’s more, he has shown that he’s in sharp form and very interested in getting as much as he can out of this Vuelta. He nearly took a second stage win in as many days on a Stage 4 that finished on a climb that was probably just a hair harder than he would have preferred. Stage 5, with its technical final kilometer, gives him a chance to use all of his manifold skills on the bike to his advantage.

John Degenkolb should be best placed to challenge Sagan at this finish. Sagan has the edge on the steeper gradients but Degenkolb is very handy in a finish like this. Still, he has his work cut out for him. Degenkolb couldn’t keep Sagan from coming around him on a Stage 3 that suited him better. It will be a challenge outgunning Sagan here.

Nacer Bouhanni will have a chance at this stage as well—although he’d prefer a flatter finish, he’s shown an ability to handle more challenging gradients near the line in the past. The question mark for Bouhanni is whether he’s at 100% after multiple crashes.

Jean-Pierre Drucker has a knack for success in messier finishes and this is likely to be a hectic finale. He can’t be ignored as a contender for Stage 5 even against the likes of favorites Sagan and Degenkolb.

Carlos Barbero was not as much of a factor on Stages 3 or 4 as I’d expected, but this stage, with a finish that is tougher than the former but easier than the latter, should suit him best. He’s still a long shot against the big talents he’ll be up against, but this is a profile he’ll appreciate.

JJ Rojas, Alejandro Valverde, Caleb Ewan, Daniel Moreno, Jasper Stuyven, Danny Van Poppel, Vicente Reynes, Simon Gerrans, Tom Dumoulin, and Kristian Sbaragli are others to watch in the uphill sprint that is likely to decide Stage 5 of the Vuelta.

VeloHuman Stage 5 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. John Degenkolb | 3. Nacer Bouhanni

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 5. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here.

August 25, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 4 Preview

Stage 4: Estepona › Vejer de la Frontera – 209.6km

A cursory glance at the Stage 4 profile might lead you to expect a big bunch sprint at the end of the day. But take a closer look at the last 5km and it should be clear that the heavyweight sprinters won’t be in a happy place in this finale.

There isn’t a single categorized climb on the road from Estepona to Vejer de la Frontera, but things get very difficult just before the line after 200 mostly flat kilometers. With just over 4km to go, the road kicks up at a gradient of just over 10% for a little over a kilometer. After that initially vicious uphill stretch the grade eases a bit, but the climbing continues until there are about 2km to go, when the road flattens out, before angling downhill until there are just 500 meters left. Then the road kicks sharply upward again, getting into the double digits before easing to a gradient of a little over 4% at the finish.

A straightforward sprint with all the traditional speedsters in contention seems unlikely. First, the initial steep section could provide a launching pad for an aggressive puncheur to make an attack in the closing kilometers of the race. And if things are all together coming under the flamme rouge, the uphill drag to the line will favor a different sort of rider. Strong climbing legs will be as critical as explosiveness on Stage 4.

Peter Sagan has both in spades. He showed on Stage 3 that he’s not just taking the Vuelta a España as a long training ride, and having proven that he’s not afraid to go after the stages that suit him, he’s suddenly a dangerous contender in the stagehunting game. All that said, it’s still going to be hard to predict just when he’s going to put it all on the line to hunt down results in this race. The tough Stage 4 finish suits him very well, as it is likely to prove too difficult for anyone else with the same sort of speed, but there is always the possibility that Sagan just isn’t interested in expending the necessary effort to go for the win. If he does, he’ll be hard to beat. If he doesn’t, this is a wide open stage.

The finish looks great for Dan Martin, who showed strength on Stage 2 despite missing the day’s winning move. Martin has a Monument-winning ability to launch a late attack, but he’s also handier in a fast finish than most riders with his ability to climb should things stay together for a reduced sprint in the final few hundred meters. Martin is fresher than many of the star climbers in this race, and motivated to pick up a big result after a slow season.

Alejandro Valverde has the skillset to thrive at this finish and should be among the favorites, but form is a bit of a question mark. He was somewhat disappointing on a Stage 2 that seemed to suit him perfectly, just as he was a disappointment on the Mur de Huy and Mur de Bretagne in the Tour de France. If he’s worked through a bit of early-race sluggishness though, he’ll be up there fighting for the win.

The Katusha duo of Joaquim Rodríguez and Daniel Moreno should be anxious for a second chance after a missed opportunity on Stage 2. Rodríguez in particular looks strong and up for a challenge just like this where he can try a late attack, or rely on his decent uphill sprint.

John Degenkolb has shown flashes of the ability to take on something this steep, but he’s much better served when the tough climbs come earlier on in a stage—he’s capable of grinding it out over a long day of up and down and sticking it out for a flat sprint, but when the finish itself is this challenging, Degenkolb might struggle. Teammate Tom Dumoulin should be the best option for Giant-Alpecin. The double digits aren’t his forte but he’s got a nice turn of speed and a terrific ability to go solo when the opportunity presents itself.

Esteban Chaves took the peloton by surprise to take the Stage 2 win and the red jersey after a somewhat quiet season, but he won’t be able to stay out of the spotlight on Stage 4. All eyes will be on the race leader on the final climb. He’s still a threat but this isn’t a perfect finish for him compared to some of the other favorites, and he doesn’t have the element of surprise. Simon Gerrans would probably be OGE’s best option here, though his form is an unknown, as he’s coming back from an injury. If he’s healthy, he could contend for the win.

Carlos Barbero has had a lot of success this season on this sort of profile, though generally his results have come against far less imposing rivals. Still, don’t count him out against the Vuelta field—Caja Rural is on home turf and highly motivated to come away with a stage win in Spain’s biggest race.

Jelle Vanendert, Bart De Clercq, JJ Rojas, Nicolas Roche, Sergio Henao, Jasper Stuyven, Fabio Aru, and Domenico Pozzovivo are others to watch for Stage 4. Lastly, don’t completely count out Nacer Bouhanni. It will be a very tall order for the Frenchman to survive the steep stuff, but he looked mostly recovered from his Stage 2 crash in the sprint finish to Stage 3, and he has at times shown an ability to handle tough finales like this one.

VeloHuman Stage 4 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Dan Martin | 3. Alejandro Valverde

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 4. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here.

August 24, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 3 Preview

Stage 3: Mijas › Málaga – 158.4km

The third stage of the 2015 Vuelta should give the quick men a chance at glory, if they can make it over a tough climb midway through the day. 158.4km from start to finish, Monday’s Stage 3 is a short one, but the Cat. 1 Puerto del León will challenge the sprinters. 16km at 5.2%, it’s a long way to the top. Fortunately, the fast finishers will have about 80 kilometers after the summit to get back into the bunch if they lose contact.

There is also an uncategorized bump about 10km from the finish, though it is neither particularly long, nor all that steep. The final 4km are pan flat, though somewhat technical with a full about-face turn inside the last 2km.

This early in the race, a sprint finish is almost a certainty, and most of the sprint specialists should make it to the line despite the Cat. 1 halfway along the route.

Nacer Bouhanni and John Degenkolb went head to head several times in last year’s Vuelta, with Degenkolb taking four wins and Bouhanni nabbing two. The two speedsters are set to resume the confrontation in this year’s race starting Monday. I rate Degenkolb’s top-end speed a bit higher than most observers probably do, about on par with Bouhanni’s, though Bouhanni has the edge in a technical finish. However, Bouhanni went down hard on Stage 2 and he may be feeling the effects in the Stage 3 sprint. Without much indication of form this early in the race, I’d give Degenkolb a tiny advantage for this likely showdown due to Bouhanni’s fall, though it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if the Frenchman took the stage win. If something should happen to Degenkolb, his teammate Luka Mezgec will be a handy alternative for Giant-Alpecin, fast enough even to challenge Bouhanni.

Peter Sagan is certainly among the top names to watch on Stage 3 as well, though his form is a big question mark. Sagan showed last year that he’s quite comfortable taking the Vuelta as a pure training ride and giving up opportunities for stage victories as works his way towards Worlds. If he’s up for it, he’ll be in the mix, but that seems less than likely.

Caleb Ewan, on the other hand, should be fully motivated to go for glory in his first Grand Tour sprint stage. The 21-year-old has all the speed in the world, and should be right up there in the finale with the more experienced favorites if he can position himself properly.

Danny Van Poppel doesn’t have many opportunities to sprint for himself, but he’s looked sharp this year, especially in the past few weeks. He has a shot on Stage 3. The same is true for Kris Boeckmans—the climb could challenge the hefty Belgian, but he has the speed to fight for a sprint win.

Jean-Pierre Drucker, Kristian Sbaragli, Tom Van Asbroeck, Carlos Barbero, JJ Rojas, Max Richeze, and Jasper Stuyven are among the others who will have a shot at the stage win in the likely bunch kick.

VeloHuman Stage 3 Favorites

1. John Degenkolb | 2. Nacer Bouhanni | 3. Caleb Ewan

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 3. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here.

August 23, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 2 Preview

Stage 2: Alhaurín de la Torre › Caminito del Rey – 158.7km

After a strange opening TTT without GC implications, the Vuelta a España kicks off in earnest on Sunday’s Stage 2.

At 158.7 kilometers, Stage 2 is a short one, but a sting in the tail will bring the GC riders to the fore, which is rather unusual for such an early stage in a three-week race. The day finishes with a 4.7km climb at an average gradient over 6%, with a few steeper sections near the finish. It’s not L’Angliru, but it won’t be a cake walk either, especially this early in the race before many riders have gotten acclimated to the pace of a Grand Tour.

Without any separation on the GC leaderboard as of yet, the peloton will probably drive a hard pace to keep the break on a short leash, though it remains to be seen just which teams will do the work. The shortness of the stage should only increase the speed in the peloton. It’s likely that the pack will hit the final climb at a dogged pace, which could blunt any long-range moves. However, on the slopes of the ascent to the finish, things could change dramatically. Any hesitation could see an attack go clear on the steep stuff. In the event that that doesn’t happen, a strong finishing kick will come in handy, as the final few hundred meters do even out a bit.

Dan Martin is a specialist in this sort of finish, and delivered multiple near misses on similar late climbs in last month’s Tour de France. It’s been a disappointing year for Martin, but he’s shown strong form at times, and should be in the mix here in the Vuelta’s Stage 2. The fact that the top GC favorites probably won’t see him as too much of an overall threat could give him an edge should he try for an attack from a little ways out, and he also happens to have great finishing speed for a sprint should that be necessary. He has lived in Spain for some time now, and tends to do pretty well in his adopted home country, having taken his first Grand Tour stage win at the Vuelta back in 2011. In-form teammate Joe Dombrowski is another strong option for Cannondale-Garmin.

Alejandro Valverde was brilliant in the first half of the season, and if he still has anything left in the tank after a tough Tour de France, he’ll be in the mix for this finish, which suits him very well. Of the top GC riders in the race, he is far and away the fastest in a reduced sprint. He probably won’t be given any breathing room to go on the move, but if Movistar can keep a lid on any late attacks (and they have a team capable of taking control of the race), Valverde will be hard to beat. This finish isn’t hard enough to really favor Nairo Quintana, but don’t count him out either—Quintana is a danger any time the road goes up.

Katusha’s one-two punch has a great chance at success on this stage. Joaquim Rodríguez should come into the stage ready for a showdown, and the finish suits him very well. Expect to see him teaming up with Daniel Moreno to try to set the tone for Katusha early on in this race. Both should be a bit fresher than many of the top climbers in this Vuelta; Moreno didn’t race the Tour at all, and Rodríguez played a stagehunting role there instead of fighting for a GC result.

Astana’s Fabio Aru should also bring plenty of freshness into this finish. He was already showing strong form in the Tour of Poland. If he pours all his energy into an attack on the final climb, he could get some separation. Teammates Vincenzo Nibali and Mikel Landa are obvious options as well.

This short climb isn’t the sort of test typically seen as preferred terrain for Chris Froome, but when he’s motivated, he’s almost impossible to keep down; don’t underestimate his chances. Still, Sergio Henao could be the best option for Sky. The Colombian is on great form, and he’s got some pop for a late move or a finishing sprint.

This finish is probably a bit hard for a Peter Sagan who is in Spain to build up form for Worlds, but he deserves a mention ahead of a stage that he might have a chance at on peak form. The same is true for Simon Gerrans, coming back from a collarbone injury.

Domenico Pozzovivo may find the climb a bit too short for his liking, but he’ll be among the freshest riders in the entire race, and he could get some breathing room for an attack if the top favorites start looking at each other. Esteban Chaves, Samuel Sánchez, Carlos Barbero, Pello Bilbao, Rafal Majka, Jelle Vanendert, Daniel Navarro, and Pierre Rolland are others who will have a shot at success on Stage 2.

VeloHuman Stage 2 Favorites

1. Dan Martin | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Joaquim Rodríguez

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 2. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here.

August 23, 2015