The 2015 Vuelta a España will get underway with one of the whackiest stages in race history thanks to an absurd course design and a last-minute UCI decision.
An opening team time trial of just 7.4 pancake-flat kilometers is odd enough, too short to really have any GC impact whatsoever, but the route includes a few unique challenges. Running along the vacationer-friendly Mediterranean coast from Puerto Banús to Marbella, the course involves stretches of packed dirt and sand and a narrow wooden bridge. Those peculiar obstacles caused plenty of consternation to riders putting in some course recon this week, spurring the UCI to call a meeting that ultimately deemed the TTT parcours too dangerous to count towards the General Classifiation. And so, just one day before the start of the Vuelta, the decision has been made to neutralize the opening stage in terms of the GC, leaving only a stage win and position in the team classification up for grabs.
Obviously, that dramatically changes the prediction picture, as any teams with GC aspirations now have little motivation to take any risks on the absurd course. A few of the top overall contenders lead strong TTT squads, but it’s hard to see them putting in the effort to contend for a stage win on the sand.
Instead, this should come down to the teams without GC candidates on the roster. Trek Factory Racing is among the front-runners. Fabian Cancellara leads a squad packed with fast finishers, and over a course of just 7.4km, sprinter speed will come in handy. Without a top GC favorite to shepherd over the whacky parcours, Trek will be hard to beat.
Giant-Alpecin should thrive for the same reasons as Trek—time trialing star Tom Dumoulin will lead the squad, with high-octane John Degenkolb and Luka Mezgec providing firepower over the very short course.
Orica-GreenEdge may have a shot, with a few time trialing specialists and a few fast finishers making the start. OGE always outperforms the sum of its parts in team time trials, and the team has nothing to lose in this race.
Etixx-QuickStep doesn’t have many of its top talents against the clock making the start, but Niki Terpstra leads a team that does include a few decent TT men and no reason to take the course gingerly.
Tinkoff-Saxo has a collection of speedsters and big engines to put up a good ride if Rafal Majka’s GC aspirations don’t hold them back. Sky has the firepower to put in a challenge for the TTT victory, but it seems almost guaranteed that the British squad will ride this one without much urgency as Chris Froome is a contender for the overall Vuelta a España victory. The same goes for BMC and Movistar, who might otherwise have contended for the stage, but who will now likely keep the powder dry for a day with real GC implications.
VeloHuman Stage 1 Favorites
1. Trek Factory Racing | 2. Giant-Alpecin | 3. Orica-GreenEdge
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for 2015 Vuelta analysis. The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 1. And if you haven’t already checked out the Recon Ride’s first of three Vuelta episodes, there’s no time like the present to start listening!
The 2015 Tour de France may be over but the WorldTour rolls on. The Clásica de San Sebastián (or the Donostiako Klasikoa in Basque) is the next race on the docket. It’s a hilly event that has just the right profile to inspire plenty of attacks, in a region mad for cycling, and its position on the calendar makes it a tough race to predict—some of the stars of the Tour de France are in attendance hoping to get just a bit more out of their legs, while a few other big-name riders are returning to racing for the first time and hoping to get back up to speed quickly.
The San Sebastián organizers made a small but impactful change to the race route last season that led to an exciting finale, and the event returns to that successful parcours for 2015.
The race starts and finishes in the coastal town of San Sebastián, looping in and around the environs to make for a total race length of 219.2 kilometers.
The harder climbs on San Sebastián profile are categorized as if this were a stage race, and there are six such challenges on the route. The Category 1 Iturburu climb, crested around kilometer 60, is no slouch, but it’s early enough to be more of a leg-softener than anything else.
Once the peloton hits the slopes of the Jaizkibel, the more enterprising riders in the bunch will have one opportunity after another to go on the attack, all the way to the last climb of the day less than 10km from the finish.
Things get more consistently difficult after the midway point of the route with the first trip up the Jaizkibel, the marquee climb of the race. It’s another Cat. 1 ascent, roughly 8 kilometers in length with an average gradient over 5%. After a descent, it’s not long before the riders reach the Cat. 2 Arkale, a short but steep climb and the third categorized test of the day. From the top of the Arkale, the pack will make a downhill trip right back to the foot of the Jaizkibel, where they’ll take on both the Jaizkibel and then the Arkale a second time.
After the second descent from the Arkale comes the final run-in to town, but there’s a tough climb along the road to the finish. The Bordako Tontorra climb to Igeldo is a short but steep Cat. 2 crested just over 7 kilometers from the finish. It’s less than 3km in length but with an average gradient nearing 10% and sections in the 20% range, it’s a hard road to the top. After the climb comes a descent into a flat finish.
The Contenders
The profile favors strong climbers with a lot of punch. It’s probably possible to attack from the more pure-climber-friendly Jaizkibel or from the Arkale and hold out to the finish, but it’s more likely that the race comes down to the last bump in the road, which is more suited to the Ardennes-style riders than the big stage racing stars.
That late climb shook up the race last year, providing Alejandro Valverde with a launching pad to go on the attack for the win. Because the parcours is so up-and-down already, the peloton is pretty thinned out by the time it reaches the final 10km—even if attacks on the Jaizkibel and Arkale are reeled in, it’s still very hard to keep things altogether on the last climb. In case it’s a small group that reaches the finish, a strong flatland kick will be important to anyone hoping to win.
However things play out, Valverde is capable of winning this race in pretty much any scenario, which is probably why he is a two-time champion. Coming off of a Tour de France podium, and in the middle of an excellent season (in which he dominated the hilly spring classics), it’s hard not to see Valverde as the clear favorite. He’s among the best climbers on the starlist who can thrive on pretty much any gradient, and he’s got more punch than most of his rivals. Valverde could win this with another late attack, or he could follow the moves in the finale and hold out for a reduced sprint. Giovanni Visconti is a good alternative for Movistar.
As good a candidate as Valverde is to win this race, however, the Clásica is still a pretty wide open event. It’s always hard to say how riders’ legs will react coming into the race. Valverde went very deep fighting for a Tour de France podium spot.
Philippe Gilbert is another former winner who has been on terrific form of late. If the pace is really high over the finale climb, the Philippe Gilbert of 2015 may have just a bit of trouble holding on all the way up, but if the peloton plays the early slopes cautiously, Gilbert will be well-positioned to make a late attack or to look for a sprint win. BMC has some serious firepower behind Gilbert, though—Greg Van Avermaet was in the Top 10 last year and is in great form this year, and Samuel Sánchez has been in the Top 10 several times over his career.
Joaquim Rodríguez has never won the race but he’s come close several times, and it’s no surprise that he does well here given the punchy-climber-friendly profile. He’ll probably need to launch a late attack if he wants to win, since he’ll have trouble outsprinting some of the other top favorites at the flat finish, but the Igeldo climb is the perfect place to do that. His form was good enough for two stage wins at the Tour, but he didn’t look terrific in the final week; however, he landed on the podium in the 2014 edition of the Clásica despite a lackluster Tour, so I won’t read too much into his not-great few days in the Alps. Daniel Moreno makes for an excellent foil—he’s been a bit quiet this season, but Purito and Moreno always make for a strong 1-2 punch.
Bauke Mollema was 2nd in this race last year and has been in the Top 10 all three times he’s made the start. Mollema is known as a strong climber but he’s also handy in a sprint. If he can get into a small group at the end of the day he will have a great shot at winning. For whatever reason, his kick is a bit underrated, and that can only help him potentially pull one over the more obvious Ardennes veterans in the finale. Julian Arredondo and Bob Jungels are other great options for Trek.
Etixx-QuickStep is loaded with talent in the form of Julian Alaphilippe, Rigoberto Urán, and Zdenek Stybar. Alaphilippe is probably best-suited to the profile, but he’s not raced in a little while so the form is a question mark. Urán looked decent in the Tour, and packs a nice sprint—he’s a rider to watch. Stybar will be a good bet as well, coming off of strong Tour de France in which he took a stage victory. He climbs better every year and he was 10th here last year.
2013 winner Tony Gallopin is not racing, but Lotto Soudal has a few good options in his stead with Tim Wellens and Jelle Vanendert. Both seem like good candidates to try an attack from a little ways out;
Dan Martin is an obvious candidate for success on the San Sebastián profile but he was not at his best in the last week of the Tour and if he’s feeling a bit rusty, a 200+ kilometer bike race might be tough. Ryder Hesjedal could pick up the slack if Martin isn’t up for it. Roman Kreuziger will lead Tinkoff-Saxo after Alberto Contador decided to back out of the start citing a fever—Kreuziger has a good track record in San Sebastián and will be worth keeping an eye on. Astana’s Luis Leon Sanchez is a two-time winner of the race, but he might not even be the best rider on his team. Mikel Landa has had an excellent season thus far and has the explosive climbing legs to try a move on slopes. He was 6th in this race back in 2013 before he had really even come close to the level at which he’s been racing this year.
Both of the Yates twins have a shot—Adam was riding well in last year’s edition of the race before crashing out of the lead group in the final few kilometers, and Simon may be even better suited to the profile. AG2R’s Romain Bardet is in good shape and has quietly become a dangerous one-day racer. Teammate Alexis Vuillermoz could look to launch himself on one of the late climbs. Rui Costa was forced to abandon the Tour de France by a variety of ailments, but this is a great parcours for him if he’s back to 100%.
Jarlinson Pantano, Sylvain Chavanel, Wilco Kelderman, and Thibaut Pinot are others who will hope to be involved with the other race favorites.
Pello Bilbao of Caja Rural is VeloHuman’s Under-the-radar rider to watch at the Clásica de San Sebastián. Bilbao is a talented all-rounder with the climbing legs to be in the mix as a stage race contender, but who also packs a nice finishing kick. He’s having a great year so far, having won a mountain stage at the Tour of Turkey and the overall at the Tour de Beauce, among other results. Caja Rural in general is having a very nice season, with quite a collection of wins at Continental Tour races; watch out for a long-range dig from Amets Txurruka or David Arroyo as well, and keep an eye on versatile fast finisher Carlos Barbero.
VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites
Winner: Alejandro Valverde Podium: Philippe Gilbert, Bauke Mollema Other Top Contenders: Joaquim Rodríguez, Greg Van Avermaet, Zdenek Stybar, Julian Alaphilippe, Romain Bardet, Dan Martin, Mikel Landa
With Fabio Aru’s Stage 20 victory closing out the climber-oriented days of the 2015 Giro d’Italia, just one stage remains in the race.
Stage 21 is pan-flat from the start in Turin to the finish in Milan. It’s a profile the sprinters will love. The racing closes out with seven laps of a 5.4km circuit, and things get a bit technical in the second half of each lap, with multiple corners and a roundabout. That means that the final trip around the circuit will likely be hectic. The last kilometer, however, is a straightaway to the finish line, one that will likely see the big-name sprinters still in this race getting up to some very high speeds.
High-speed finishes are great for Sacha Modolo, whose two stage victories so far in this Giro make him the de facto favorite again here. His leadout support has been outstanding so far in the race, and he’s able to finish it off with a powerful finishing kick. All of the other quick men will have their eyes on the men in fuschia in Milan.
Giacomo Nizzolo is now up seven career 2nd-place finishes in Giro d’Italia sprints, but this may represent the best opportunity he’s ever had to finally take a victory. A technical run-in to the line suits his bike-handling skills, and the long straight finish suits his blazing top speed. The perfect flatness of the profile should help hide one of the weaknesses of his never-ending campaign to finally win a Giro stage: a leadout train that has always disappeared late in the race. Without any climbs to wear them out, Trek will have no excuses for leaving Nizzolo alone in this Stage 21 finale.
Elia Viviani started the Giro hot with a stage win, but he’s cooled since then. Still, for pure speed when at his best, Viviani is right up there with the other top names in this race, and can’t be counted out here.
Luka Mezgec won the final stage of last year’s Giro d’Italia, and he’ll benefit from the an always skilled Giant-Alpecin leadout in the tricky final few kilometers of this stage. He should be up there fighting for the overall win. LottoNL-Jumbo’s Moreno Hofland could be up there as well.
Davide Appollonio, Heinrich Haussler, and Kevin Reza are other riders to watch in the probable sprint finish of Stage 21.
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live analysis of Stage 21, and check back soon for plenty more pre-race coverage of the Critérium du Dauphiné, the Tour de Suisse, and, of course, the Tour de France.
Philippe Gilbert took a hard-fought victory at the end of a challenging Stage 18 but things don’t get any easier in the Giro’s 19th stage, among the hardest days in the whole Giro due to its length and climb-filled finale.
The first 150 of its 236 total kilometers are mostly flat except for a single short Cat. 3, but then things change dramatically. After 150km, the peloton will hit the first of three Cat. 1 climbs that come in rapid succession to conclude the stage. First up is the Saint-Barthélemy climb, 16.5km at 6.7%. Then the riders will take on a fast descent into the foot of the Col Saint-Pantaléon, also 16.5km but steeper, with a 7.2% average gradient. After that it’s a short downhill to the foot of the Cervinia climb to the summit finish, 19.2km at a 5% gradient. The toughest sections are midway through the climb, with things flattening out near the very top.
Stage 19 would be a long day even without the uphill challenges, but with so many kilometers of climbing, it will be positively brutal. Such a climber-friendly profile will likely spark action among the GC types who have just this stage and the day after it remaining to make something happen in this race. And while Alberto Contador may have the pink jersey virtually locked up, he may still be looking for a stage victory. Those things being the case, the GC teams in the bunch may put pressure on the breakaway and ultimately fight it out amongst themselves, though a strong break will appreciate the serrated-edge look of the parcours.
Contador is far and away the best all-rounder in the race, and he showed on Stage 18 that he isn’t content to sit around waiting to be crowned champion in Milan. He wants to dominate this race, and he’ll have an opportunity here. On these climbs, which might wear down weaker pretenders, Contador should have ample opportunity to put the hammer down if he really wants to.
Mikel Landa has been the only climber who has come close to matching Contador’s strength in this race, and he will have a chance at a third Giro stage win here if Contador is unwilling to expend the energy required to keep him in check. Astana teammate Fabio Aru hasn’t looked as strong these past few days as he did at the start of the race, so Landa is probably Astana’s best hope here, though there is always the possibility Aru may now be the one allowed to slip away in pursuit of the Stage 19 victory while Contador has his eye on Landa.
Should the other GC types near the top of the leaderboard be given any breathing room on the late climbs, Yuri Trofimov has looked very strong recently. He has a lot of ground to make up on Aru but the podium is not completely out of the question, which will be excellent motivation for Trofimov. Leopold König should appreciate these sorts of climbs if he’s feeling strong, as should Steven Kruijswijk, who could be looking to continue his aggressive approach now that he’s wearing the blue KOM jersey.
Ryder Hesjedal is now firmly inside the GC Top 10 but he’s far enough outside of the pink jersey picture that he’s been given opportunities to get up the road. Assuming he still as the energy after a strong effort on Stage 18, he will almost certainly attempt something long-range from whatever group he is in, and he may have a shot at the early breakaway.
For other potential long-range winners, look for other names that have become familiar in the breakaway conversation so far: Movistar’s Giovanni Visconti and Beñat Intxausti (who will be on the lookout for KOM points), AG2R’s Carlos Betancur, Katusha’s Ilnur Zakarin, Sky’s Mikel Nieve, Bardiani’s Stefano Pirazzi, BMC’s Darwin Atapuma, and Androni Giocattoli’s Franco Pellizotti.
VeloHuman Stage 19 Favorites
1. Alberto Contador | 2. Mikel Landa | 3. Yuri Trofimov
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 19 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!
Sacha Modolo and the sprinters had their day on Stage 17, but now it’s back to the climber-friendly profiles. Stage 18 starts out flat, with stretch of 120 kilometers without any categorized ascending, but then the road kicks upward in the form of the vicious Monte Ologno climb, 10.4km at a very steep 9% average gradient. It’s followed by a bit of up and down before a long, fast descent into a flat final 5km.
The only categorized climb on the day is a tough one that should see GC action, but with two very hard mountain days to come, the GC types may allow the breakaway riders some leeway on this stage. And even if the early break is caught on the slopes of the climb, Tinkoff-Saxo and Astana may allow fringe overall contenders to get some space. In any case, the rider who wins this stage will need to have strong climbing skills, strong descending skills, and, probably, a decent finishing kick.
Several big-name all-rounders sitting outside the real GC contender conversation will be among the favorites, given the likelihood that this stage goes to a non-pink-jersey threat with an aggressive streak. Giovanni Visconti has all the necessary tools to thrive on this parcours, and he’s far enough back on the overall leaderboard that he may be able to ride ahead unchecked. He has been strong so far in this race. Teammate Beñat Intxausti may look to get up the road as well with the KOM points on offer at the top of the climb, and if he’s up there with enough of a gap, he might see if he can stretch an advantage to the finish line.
Carlos Betancur will be watching Intxausti closely. The Colombian still has a chance at the mountains classification, and this stage suits him very well given his explosive finishing kick. Either from the morning break, from a late move, or even from a reduced bunch coming to the line together, Betancur will be dangerous on Stage 18.
Ryder Hesjedal has been very active so far in the race, and despite being 10th overall now, he’s still no threat to the pink jersey and may be allowed to go up the road. Few of the other likely breakaway contenders can match him on this climb.
Ilnur Zakarin, Darwin Atapuma, Franco Pellizotti, Esteban Chaves, Mikel Nieve, Luis Leon Sanchez, and Stefano Pirazzi are others who could try to get up the road and win Stage 18 with a long-range move.
Steven Kruijswijk was a breakaway fixture early on in this race, but he’s managed to work his way into the GC picture and will probably be focused more on consolidating his gains there than trying to force his way up the road here. He’s still a threat if given space on the climb.
The Monte Ologno is difficult enough that we could see Alberto Contador and Mikel Landa and teammate Fabio Aru battling again, both for GC positions and potentially even for the stage win. If none of them is able to get separation, a very strong Yuri Trofimov might be able to slip away. Damiano Caruso and Rigoberto Urán will be among the top options to take the stage if it comes down to a sprint in a reduced bunch.
VeloHuman Stage 18 Favorites
1. Giovanni Visconti | 2. Carlos Betancur | 3. Mikel Landa
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 18 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!
The fact that a climber (like stage winner Mikel Landa) would win Stage 16 was obvious from the profile alone, but the Stage 17 profile could be deceiving. It’s a mostly flat stage, with only a single categorized climb on offer (a very early Cat. 3) and just 134km of racing from start to finish (in Lugano, Switzerland). At first glance, it looks like a great day for the sprinters.
But we’re now into the Giro’s final week, and there will be some tired sprinters in the bunch. What’s more, the peloton just took on a brutal day of climbing, and there are more brutal days of climbing ahead. Combine those facts with the fact that the Giro peloton has already displayed an inability to control the breakaway on what appear to be clear sprinters’ days and you have a recipe for another potential opportunity to for the aggressors to steal one from the quick men.
I see it is a 50-50 proposition on this stage. So many sprinters have left the race that it will be harder for those remaining to do the job of keeping the breakaway controlled, but at the same time, this profile is one that should allow them to do so if they manage to stay organized. In any case, at least in terms of naming favorites, the three top sprinters left in this race are certainly stronger individual favorites than any one rider who trying his luck in the crapshoot that is getting into a breakaway on a stage like this. If it does come down to a sprint, a challenging finale with a few late corners will make this an exciting, if somewhat dangerous, stage finish.
Giacomo Nizzolo nearly came away with the elusive victory he has so long sought in the Giro d’Italia on Stage 13, but Sacha Modolo closed the door on him in the final 100 meters with a strong kick and a not-altogether-noble swerve toward the barriers. Still, Nizzolo looked quite strong there despite a complete lack of leadout support in the final 2km, and he’s shown several times in his career an ability to position himself well in a technical finale, even if he doesn’t always time his subsequent sprint kick successfully. This stage suits him, and he’s strong right now; if the breakers are caught, he has a great chance to finally get that win. Sacha Modolo meanwhile, with the powerful Lampre-Merida leadout to guide him to the line, has his own great chance here, a chance to double up on Giro victories. His teammates did a brilliant job to put him in position to win Stage 13, and they’ll be eager to do so again here. He’s looking strong right now too.
Elia Viviani obviously looked great on Stage 2, but since then he hasn’t been quite as impressive. Still, he should be right up there in terms of top speed with the remaining sprinters left in the race and therefore will be among the favorites in a potential sprint here on Stage 17.
Luka Mezgec has shown flashes of that sort of speed in the past but he’s been a bit lackluster in the sprints in this Giro. Giant-Alpecin is nearing the finish of a Grand Tour in which they’ve achieved very little, however, which could motivate them to perform here before the race goes back into the high mountains where they will have little opportunity to impact the events. Alessandro Petacchi, JJ Lobato, Moreno Hofland, and Davide Appollonio are other options for a potential sprint finish.
If a breakaway goes clear, strong engines Sylvain Chavanel (of Swiss team IAM Cycling) and Silvan Diller (of Switzerland) will be among the top riders to keep an eye on. Philippe Gilbert, Fabio Felline, Giovanni Visconti, and Patrick Gretsch are others on the list of riders who might have the energy to get up the road after a hard day in the mountains, though the list of riders with a chance here if Stage 17 does go to the breakaway is almost endless.
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 17 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!
