Tag: Favoritos

Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 15 Preview

Stage 15: Marostica › Madonna di Campiglio – 165km

Now that the stage 14 time trial has shaken up the GC (Vasil Kiryienka’s stage win was perhaps overshadowed by his teammate Richie Porte losing another chunk of time to his rivals) and put Alberto Contador back on top of the overall leaderboard, the peloton heads to the mountains.

Stage 15 is a tough climbing stage. Things get started with a long, low-gradient, uncategorized ascent into the Cat. 2 climb of La Fricca. From there, it’s a long descent and a few rollers before the harsh Cat. 1 Passo Daone climb, 8.4km at a 9.2% average gradient. A steep downhill from the top of that climb leads into an uncategorized ascent into the final categorized challenge of the day, the Cat. 1 Madonna di Campigilio climb to a summit finish, 15.5km at 5.9%.

The three official climbs and the other unmarked uphill sections would make this a challenging day no matter where it found itself in the Giro stage order, but coming on the heels of a brutal almost-60km time trial, it will hurt. As with any up-and-down climber-friendly day, this one will give the breakaway a chance at success, but with the added factor of following up a day that most certainly wore out the GC contenders, it seems like a good bet that the breakaway riders who saved their legs on Stage 14 will have a great chance of going the distance on Stage 15. Even if the GC riders were completely fresh, Tinkoff-Saxo has showed little interest in closing down the breakaways so far in this race. That makes it a really tough one to predict, but there are a few likely protagonists.

Beñat Intxausti will want to get up the road on this stage in pursuit of KOM points. His hold on the blue jersey is tenuous, and there are plenty of points on offer here. If he can get into the break, he’ll be very dangerous. He’s in excellent form and these climbs suit him well. Teammates Ion Izagirre and Giovanni Visconti will also be worth watching.

Carlos Betancur is another rider hunting that KOM title, and he seems to improve daily in this Giro. This stage will really test his endurance. If he can get into the break, he’ll probably be able to outpunch Intxausti for the earlier KOMs, but things could get tough on the final climb when the lead group starts to get whittled down. In any case, Betancur is a dangerous rider on this climb-happy parcours.

Ryder Hesjedal is far enough out of GC contention to get some breathing room here, and he’s looked pretty good so far in this race. Cannondale-Garmin will almost certainly put a rider up the road early on; the question is whether it will be Hesjedal, or the also-strong Davide Formolo and Tom Danielson. All of them are danger men from the breakaway.

Stefano Pirazzi, Edoardo Zardini, Esteban Chaves, Franco Pellizotti, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Darwin Atapuma, Jan Polanc, Steven Kruijswijk, and Ilnur Zakarin are others on a very long list of potential long-range contenders here.

If the GC favorites do fight it out for stage honors, a flying Alberto Contador is the obvious choice, though he might have less incentive to attack now that he’s healthily in the GC lead again. Fabio Aru may look to get aggressive on the steep slopes to put pressure on Contador and attempt to claw back time, but expect Tinkoff-Saxo to be watching him very closely. His teammate Mikel Landa, Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Rigoberto Urán, Leopold König, now-way-out-of-contention Richie Porte, and Damiano Caruso, meanwhile, probably seem like less of a threat to Contador and could get some leeway to attack on the Madonna di Campigilio climb.

VeloHuman Stage 15 Favorites

1. Beñat Intxausti | 2. Carlos Betancur | 3. Mikel Landa

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. Stage 15 is followed by a rest day, so check back on Monday for the preview of the next stage. In the meantime, keep an eye out for the next episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 23, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14: Treviso › Valdobbiadene – 59.4kkm

Sacha Modolo’s victory on Stage 13 was not too surprising, but the carnage near the finish that dropped Alberto Contador (slightly) and Richie Porte (significantly) down the GC leaderboard was. Two weeks into the Giro d’Italia, there have been several days with major GC consequences that didn’t seem likely to have much of an effect on the overall race at first. Nevertheless, Stage 14 could shake things up more than any of those days have so far.

At nearly 60km, this is one long race against the clock. The profile could be split into two halves. The first 30km of the stage are quite flat, and will favor the larger engines in the peloton. The second half of the stage is a bit hillier. Things start off with a roughly 5km climb at an approximately 4% average gradient. Then comes a descent and another flat stretch, before another ascent into a rolling final few kilometers.

The sheer length of this parcours, and the lack of any serious climbs (especially in the first 30km) will put the ITT powerhouses in their element.

The Giro GC conversation happens to have several top all-rounders with elite time trialing skills who should thrive even on the flats, and in the absence of chrono specialists at the level of a Tony Martin or a Tom Domoulin, this stage is likely to come down to the pink jersey hunters.

Richie Porte is certainly among the favorites, given his excellent time trialing skills. Two days ago, I would have named him the heavy favorite here. However, both his morale and his body (his knee, in particular) appeared to be affected by the Stage 13 crash. 60km is a long time to be in a very specific position, and if Porte isn’t feeling great, or isn’t feeling particularly motivated now that he’s so far off track in the GC conversation, he could easily falter. It’s very hard to tell just how he’ll do. If he’s at or near his best in spite of his recent troubles, he should win.

Rigoberto Urán won last year’s Giro time trial, and he’s developed into an impressive chrono talent over the last few years. However, his form has not been at quite the level he probably hoped for in this race, and he recently crashed. Just as is the case with Porte, it’s hard to say how that will affect his chances, but judging from the riding he’s done since going down on Stage 12, I don’t think his fall had that much of an effect on him, and I do think that he’s been completely focused on this opportunity since the start of the race, so I’d imagine he’ll do pretty well here in Stage 14.

Alberto Contador has been a strong time trialist for a while, but he’s been stellar in the ITTs over the past 12 months or so. It’s an area of his game that may have been overlooked. In multiple recent face-offs that he’s had with Chris Froome in which most expected the Briton to put time into the Spaniard, Contador has come out on top. Unfortunately from a prognostication standpoint, Contador has taken a physical beating in this Giro, crashing multiple times. If he can’t position himself comfortably on the bike for the long period of time required in this ITT, he could suffer. Contador’s a fighter, though, and he can ride through pain better than most, so I think we can expect a strong ride.

Fabio Aru will probably lose time to a few of his rivals here, but his teammate Dario Cataldo almost certainly will not, and could challenge for the Stage 14 win, as might Tanel Kangert. Richie Porte’s Sky teammates Leopold König and Vasil Kiryienka, Alberto Contador’s Tinkoff-Saxo teammate Michael Rogers, Movistar’s Andrey Amador, Ion Izagirre, and Giovanni Visconti, Kristoff Vandewalle, Luke Durbridge, Patrick Gretsch, Sylvain Chavanel, and Ilnur Zakarin are other riders to watch in this very long race against the clock.

VeloHuman Stage 14 Favorites

1. Richie Porte | 2. Rigoberto Urán | 3. Alberto Contador

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 14 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 23, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 13 Preview

Stage 13: Montecchio Maggiore › Jesolo – 147km

The bunch finally got its act together and reeled in the breakaway riders on Stage 12 to give Philippe Gilbert a win. Anything other than a second straight bunch finish on Stage 13 would be an embarrassment for the sprinters’ teams.

The stage has nothing remotely resemble a climb on it. In fact, the road goes slightly downhill from start to finish. After letting the early break get clear on a similarly sprinter-oriented Stage 10, the quick men should be able to get organized here and ensure that this stage ends in a bunch kick.

The finish is a bit technical. There are several roundabouts in the final few kilometers, and a right-hand turn with around 500 meters to go, after which comes a straightaway to the line. Positioning and a skilled, dedicated leadout will be critical. The potential for bad weather could throw this finale into chaos.

André Greipel is, at his best, the strongest sprinter on the startlist. That makes him an obvious favorite on the stage. Still, he’s prone to have off days, and Stage 13, with a few tricky challenges to navigate in the finale and the potential for rain, is a fair candidate to be an off day.

Perennial runner-up Giacomo Nizzolo might need some things to go his way to finally take that elusive Giro win, but there are more than a few factors weighing in his favor on Stage 13. Nizzolo has terrific top speed for a 500m straightaway and also has strong bike-handling skills and a dedicated squad of support riders to lead him into this finish. This will be as good a stage as any for Nizzolo, who has looked quick at the intermediate sprints and in the Stage 10 finish behind the breakaway.

Sacha Modolo has the top speed to win against anyone, if he can come into the finale in good position. He’s a top contender in any sprint.

Elia Viviani, like Giacomo Nizzolo, has looked strong at the intermediate sprints in this past few days. He’s also one of the two riders to have won a sprint stage in this Giro. He should be in the mix.

Luka Mezgec, Moreno Hofland, and Juan José Lobato could challenge the top favorites. Tom Boonen, Michael Matthews, Davide Appollonio, and Alessandro Petacchi are other quick men to keep an eye on.

VeloHuman Stage 13 Favorites

1. Giacomo Nizzolo | 2. André Greipel | 3. Sacha Modolo

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 13 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 22, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 12 Preview

Stage 12: Imola › Vicenza (Monte Berico) – 190km

Though it doesn’t have as many hills from start to finish as Stage 11 (a day tailormade for a breakaway that was won by a breakaway rider, Ilnur Zakarin), Stage 12 does have a very hilly finale that should put the puncheurs on alert again for the chance of a stage win.

The first 125 kilometers are pan flat, with both intermediate sprints occurring before the road kicks up. The first climb on the menu is the Cat. 4 Castelnuovo. It’s followed by a few smaller ups and downs and then another flat stretch into the foot of the Cat. 3 Crosara climb, a short (3.7km) but very steep (9.1% average gradient) ascent with particularly vicious lower slopes. After coming back down from the Crosara, the peloton will hit a short but not-insignificant uncategorzied climb to Perarolo, one more descent, and then a short but very steep uphill finish that is rated as a Category 4 climb. The last kilomter has an average gradient of 7.1%, with slopes topping out at 11% in the very last stretch to the line.

The bumpy finale will make this yet another day of Giro d’Italia racing that could favor a breakaway, and with the peloton showing itself completely incapable of doing the necessary work to close down moves up the road, it’s hard to overstate the chances of breakaway attempts in this race. In any case, many of the punchier riders who will be favorites for success on this stage are the types who could get into a long-range move anyway. Whatever the lead group on the road looks like in the last few kilometers, expect to see a few attacks on the final climbs before the finish, which are steep enough to be great launching pads for aggressive riders.

Diego Ulissi has won a stage in this Giro already on a finish that wasn’t even as steep as this. With an 11% gradient at the end of this climb, the stage is perfectly designed for the punchy Italian, who can charge uphill like few others. Ulissi is also capable of getting into a breakaway, or getting involved in a move over one of the climbs that come before the finish.

Philippe Gilbert missed out on a golden opportunity on Stage 11 when his team was unable to cooperate with Orica-GreenEdge to reel in the breakaway move. He tried to solo clear of the bunch but it was far too late to make a difference. This finale suits him perfectly though, so he’ll get another chance, assuming he’s in the lead group on the road at the business end of Stage 12.

Orica-GreenEdge has multiple options here. I’m going to go out on a limb (against what the bookmakers’ might suggest) and say that this might be too steep for Michael Matthews. I think he’d prefer this to flatten out in the final few hundred meters, when instead it only kicks up even more. He’s still a top contender, but Simon Gerrans may be the better rider here. Regardless, it’s hard to say whether GreenEdge will see it that way, and they may throw their weight behind Matthews, which alone would make him dangerous, not even taking his obvious talents into account. Simon Clarke could be another card to play, perhaps best sent up the road earlier in the stage.

Juan José Lobato, like Matthews, will have his eye on besting some of the top climbers on this stage. It’s hard to say how well he’ll handle the gradient. He’s had a nice run so far this year on tougher finishes but nothing this steep. Giovanni Visconti could do very well here too—in fact, the way Movistar has been riding, I’d expect to see multiple riders in dark blue finish highly on this stage. Beñat Intxausti and Andrey Amador have looked strong so far in this Giro d’Italia too.

Fabio Felline is another rider whose performance is a bit hard to predict given the lack of data—he’s only been a main featured rider for Trek for a little while now, and while he’s had great success in similar finales, this is pretty steep. In any case, he should be in the mix.

Fabio Aru and Mikel Landa could certainly be up there as well—this isn’t a very long ascent to the line but coming after a few bumps in the road it will be a bit more difficult. The same is true for Alberto Contador—and don’t be surprised if one of them tries to get clear on one of the earlier climbs.

Stefano Pirazzi, Enrico Battaglin, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Carlos Betancur, Damiano Caruso, and Damiano Cunego are others who could get involved in the action on Stage 12.

VeloHuman Stage 12 Favorites

1. Diego Ulissi | 2. Philippe Gilbert | 3. Juan José Lobato

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 12 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 20, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 11 Preview

Stage 11: Forlì › Imola – 153km

What looked set to be a very uninteresting Stage 10 turned quite interesting when a breakaway managed to stay clear, giving Nicola Boem a stage victory, and things got even crazier when Richie Porte lost nearly 3 minutes on the General Classification due to an untimely puncture and an ensuing penalization for receiving a wheel from a non-teammate. The interesting action should continue on Stage 11, which has the profile for plenty more compelling racing at the Giro d’Italia.

There are no long, brutal climbs, but it will be an exhausting day of truly constant up and down. There is a Cat. 3 climb almost from the gun, followed by three uncategorized climbs (and descents) that could easily merit at least Category 4 status in their own rights, and then another Cat. 3 before a descent to the foot of a climb that the riders will have to take on four consecutive times. The Tre Monti climb is apparently worthy of Category 4 status . . . but only on one of the four trips up, the penultimate one. It’s a little over 4km at an average over 4%, but it’s an irregular ascent with a few steeper stretches. After the first ascent, the riders will descend toward the Imola racetrack and cross over the finish line for the first time, and from there, they’ll embark on three laps in a circuit that will take them back up the Tre Monti and back down to the track.

The descent into the finish is not technical, but the downhill run from the top of the Tre Monti only flattens out inside the final km, though, so any ground lost on the climb and ensuing descent will be hard to make up before the final crossing of the finish line.

With so many climbs on the menu, it’s hard to see a sprint happening, for many reasons. First, the pure sprinters probably won’t make it too the finish. Categorized or not, there are some tough uphill challenges to overcome on Stage 11. What’s more, the profile is perfect for a long-range move, either the morning breakaway or, if that is swept up, later attacks on the climbs—it will be extremely difficult for the peloton to control this race, and the Giro’s peloton has not shown itself to be particularly interested in inter-team cooperation. Even if the day does somehow see a large, compact lead group coming into the finish, with less than a kilometer of flat running into the line, the surviving sprinters won’t have much of an opportunity to get into position for the final kick to the line, and it’s likely to get pretty messy. This one is a challenge to predict.

In terms of the potential victory-by-long-range scenario, Orica-GreenEdge has a number of riders they might send up the road, chief among them, Simon Gerrans and Simon Clarke. In recent seasons, Gerrans has made a name for himself by waiting for reduced sprints on hillier days (and he’ll of course be a danger in that scenario here), but he’s always had a great talent as a breakaway specialist, and he could try to get up the road here. Simon Clarke has spent plenty of time in breakaways in this race already, and will be a strong candidate again here.

Philippe Gilbert should be an obvious name for this sort of stage, given the profile. It will be a fierce fight to get into the breakaway, but his talent for climbing small hills like the ones that will kick off the racing on Stage 11 will give him a great chance to get involved if he goes for it.

Diego Ulissi has already won a stage in this race, showing off his excellent form right now. Like Gerrans, he’s got a great finishing kick, which means he’ll be deadly if he’s in the lead group at the end of the day—he can use his great climbing legs to stay at the front of a group over the last climb without necessarily needing to attack knowing that he can rely on the fast finish to win.

Tom-Jelte Slagter looked very strong on Stage 9 and will like the look of this profile, though it’s hard to pick one Cannondale-Garmin rider here with so many breakaway options among Tom Danielson, Davide Formolo, David Villella, and Ryder Hesjedal.

Simon Geschke, Sylvain Chavanel, Maciej Paterski, Adam Hansen, Giovanni Visconti, Stefano Pirazzi, Edoardo Zardini, Enrico Battaglin, Sonny Colbrelli, Grega Bole, and Rinaldo Nocentini are just some of the many other potential long-range victory candidates on this stage, most of whom will also be a dangerous if a reduced peloton contests this finish in a compact group.

Should this all come back together, Michael Matthews will be among the top names to add to the above list of stage victory candidates—Orica-GreenEdge really does have a wealth of options on this sort of profile. Trek’s Fabio Felline and Movistar’s Juan José Lobato are others who could get involved if everything goes their way; that is, if they can hold on over the difficult parcours, if the morning breakaway is swept up, and if no one gets clear on the final climb.

VeloHuman Stage 11 Favorites

1. Simon Gerrans | 2. Philippe Gilbert | 3. Diego Ulissi

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 11 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 19, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 10 Preview

Stage 10: Civitanova Marche › Forlì – 200km

The peloton has now had its first official rest day, but Stage 10 should give at least the GC riders another relaxing day in Italy—the profile is not particularly challenging.

The first 100 kilometers of Stage 10 are almost completely flat. The next 30 kilometers offer a few very small climbs, including a single Cat. 4 ascent, but after that, it’s pancake-flat again all the way to the finish line in Forlì. A pair of intermediate sprint points late the day will offer a preview of the probable sprinters’ battle to come. The combination of a sharp right-hander with a little more than a kilometer to go and a sharp left hander inside the final kilometer will probably be the route’s most compelling feature, as it will make for a stressful finale.

This should be a day for a big bunch kick—anything else would be a massive failure by the teams of the quick men. André Greipel is the startlist’s top-name sprinter, and after poorly timing his finishing kick on Stage 2, he got things right and powered to the win on Stage 6 to stake his claim to favorite status in the Giro’s fast finishes. With a strong leadout and a pure focus on just this sort of stage, Greipel is the rider to watch—still, he’s prone to having a bad day here and there, and that means that plenty of other speedsters will have their eyes on the possibility of a win here.

Behind Greipel the picture is a bit less clear, with several riders looking to have similar chances to come away with a stage win here. Sacha Modolo, like Greipel, is extremely fast on his good days but also prone to disappearing on others. He’s one of the few riders here with a good chance of beating even an on-point André Greipel.

Elia Viviani doesn’t have as much leadout support as his rivals but he proved that that doesn’t mean he can’t compete when he won Stage 2. It will be interesting to see if he expends energy trying to nab red jersey points at the intermediate sprints, however—that may take a bit out of him late in the day. The same is true for Giacomo Nizzolo, who has been active at the intermediates so far. In any case, both are top options on this day.

Matteo Pelucchi has been practically anonymous in eight of the race’s nine stages so far . . . but he was runner-up to Greipel on Stage 6, and in a stage without any uphill challenges like Stage 10, he has another great opportunity. Moreno Hofland is another sprinter who has been a runner-up in a flat finish (on Stage 2) and he should be in the mix as well. Luka Mezgec has the always well-marshaled Giant-Alpecin leadout to help him into the final few kilometers, and he’s looked good so far.

Tom Boonen, Michael Matthews, Juan José Lobato, Manuel Belletti, and Nicola Ruffoni are others with a chance on this stage.

VeloHuman Stage 10 Favorites

1. André Greipel | 2. Sacha Modolo | 3. Elia Viviani

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 10 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 19, 2015