Tag: Favourites

Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal 2016 Preview

With Québec done and dusted the WorldTour’s Canadian campaign heads to Montréal for a slightly more challenging race. A bit friendlier to long-range attacks than it’s Québec counterpart, the event has delivered plenty of excitement in recent years and there’s little reason to expect this year’s edition to be any less of an intriguing show.

The Route

The GP Montréal is a circuit race of 17 12.1km laps. The total distance works out to 205.7km. Starting along the Avenue du Parc, the race works its way up and around the Mount Royal and then finishes back where it started. Each lap involves three official climbs: the Côte Camillien-Houde, 1.8km at 8%, the Côte de la Polytechnique, 780m at 6%, and then the 560m run to the finish at 4%.

The Montréal parcours provides an interesting contrast to the Québec parcours. On the one hand, the hillier profile makes long-range attacks more likely to stick, with more bona fide opportunities to escape and a peloton thinned out by the day’s challenges. On the other hand, the finish itself isn’t actually as challenging, meaning traditional finishing speed (as opposed to uphill explosiveness) is more important for a group finish. Tim Wellens made sure to avoid that problem last year by getting into a late escape with just one other rider.

The Contenders

Peter Sagan seems an obvious place to start the contenders conversation, as he’s won the Montréal race before and is coming off a victory in Québec. His versatility makes him a threat here as well. His biggest challenge will come in deciding if/when to follow the inevitable attacks off the front in the finale. He has the form to win, but he’ll need to play it perfectly because no one will want to work with him late in the race.

Greg Van Avermaet will likely have similar problems, but he may have a slightly better chance of sneaking away. Plus, he’s been racing in Montréal for several years in a row and should have a really strong sense of how things are playing out in the race. That’s clutch, it’s a big reason why he’s my top favorite (if only by a hair).

Rui Costa also has plenty of experience here. Though he doesn’t have quite the finishing kick of Sagan or Van Avermaet, he’s still pretty quick, he’s a better climber than either of them, and he’s just as tactically savvy. He’s a threat to win, as is his teammate Diego Ulissi. Bauke Mollema strikes me as a rider who will hope for a similar finishing scenario (a very small group) giving his nice climbing ability and underrated speed.

Tim Wellens won’t have the luxury of relying on a sprint, and won’t be able to utilize the element of surprise this year either, but I still like his chances, especially as a podium contender. He looked good in Québec. Lotto-Soudal also has Jürgen Roelandts and Tiesj Benoot.

Julian Alaphilippe will get another nice opportunity after making multiple attempts to escape the bunch in Québec. If he’s feeling similarly aggressive, the parcours here will smile on his attacks. Plus, he’s great in a straight-up sprint should it come to that. Petr Vakoc and Matteo Trentin are good alternatives for Etixx.

Michael Matthews is the only sprinter that I see with a decent shot at this race. It’ll be a tall order for him to hold out all the way to the line in the lead group of a controlled race, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility and he’s got a great chance of winning if this does come down to a decent-sized sprint. Michael Albasini and Adam Yates are other options for Orica-BikeExchange.

Romain Bardet, Fabio Aru, Geraint Thomas, Gianni Moscon, Rafal Majka, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Rigoberto Urán, the surprising Alberto Bettiol, Anthony Roux, and Oliver Naesen are others to watch Sunday.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Greg Van Avermaet
Podium: Rui Costa, Peter Sagan
Other Top Contenders: Tim Wellens, Julian Alaphilippe, Romain Bardet, Michael Matthews, Bauke Mollema, Rigoberto Urán, Diego Ulissi

Photo by Jason Spaceman (CC).

September 11, 2016
Vuelta a España 2016: Stage 21 Preview

Stage 21: Las Rozas › Madrid – 104.8km

The Vuelta’s final stage is one for the sprinters. The topography offers very little in the way of launching pads for any enterprising attackers. The peloton will get off to a slow start, but the pace should be quite high on the Madrid circuit in preparation for a big bunch kick.

The sprint stages at this Vuelta have been distributed relatively evenly between potential winners, so there is no overwhelming favorite. I see four riders as having almost equal chances at winning. Gianni Meersman is probably my top pick, more because of his leadout than anything—his top speed is not the best, but Etixx teammates should be able to put him into a strong position in a final likely to put a high value on a good leadout train.

Jempy Drucker is another candidate for success based on the way he dominated the sprint that closed out Stage 16. If he can put that kind of speed on display again in Madrid, I wouldn’t expect anyone to beat him. That’s a big “if,” though.

Nikias Arndt has, since the start of the Vuelta, been the rider I figured to be the fastest in top form. He doesn’t appear to be in top form, but he’s shown signs of life recently and he’s taken some nice high-level wins already in his career, so a final-stage victory at the Vuelta would be no surprise.

Magnus Cort Nielsen‘s Stage 18 win was a surprise to me at the time, but given what he achieved there, he has to be a rider to watch as well. We’re still finding out what he can and can’t do, so it’s hard to predict anything for sure, but the potential for another stage win is there.

Jonas Van Genechten, Daniele Bennati, Rudiger Selig, Michael Schwarzmann, Fabio Felline, and Jens Keukeleire are others who may have a chance at the stage victory.

VeloHuman Stage 21 Favorites

1. Gianni Meersman | 2. Jempy Drucker | 3. Nikias Arndt

September 11, 2016
Vuelta a España 2016: Stage 20 Preview

Stage 20: Benidorm › Alto de Aitana – 193.2km

It’s time for the final mountain stage of the 2016 Vuelta. The profile doesn’t disappoint. Saturday’s 193.2km trek throws one Cat. 2 after another at the peloton over the course of the afternoon to wear the riders down before a grueling final climb.

The 5.9% average gradient of the Alto de Aitana is not all that intense, but at 21km, after so many prior ascents, it’s going to hurt. Plus, the final few kilometers are a bit steeper than the rest of the climb, providing a perfect launching pad for attacks. We should see plenty of them.

As far as the stage battle, I like the chances of the GC favorites a bit more than the break, simply because I expect the overall contenders to be going really hard up that final climb. There are several riders who have a chance to move up before Madrid. On the other hand, this has been a good Vuelta for breaks and this up-and-down profile does suit an early escape, so don’t be surprised to see a long-distance winner either.

Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana will likely go head-to-head in the last 10km or so, and both of them (I give Froome a slight edge) have a shot at the stage win—but I especially like the chances of the riders slightly further down on GC. I think the two riders at the top of the leaderboard might allow the likes of Esteban Chaves, Simon Yates, or Alberto Contador to get some breathing room should one of them launch an attack. Chaves needs time badly, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him crossing the line first, though maybe not far enough ahead of Contador to get back onto the podium.

If it comes down to a long-range attack, it’s up to the usual breakaway suspects. Robert Gesink, Leopold König, Kenny Elissonde, Mathias Frank, Gianluca Brambilla, Egor Silin are probably the strongest candidates, with Darwin Atapuma, Thomas De Gendt, Luis León Sánchez, and Alexandre Geniez in with a shot too.

VeloHuman Stage 20 Favorites

1. Esteban Chaves | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Nairo Quintana

September 10, 2016
Grand Prix Cycliste de Québec 2016 Preview

The Vuelta is in its final week, which means it’s time for a weekend of excellent one-day racing thousands of miles away. The Canadian GPs get underway Friday with the Grand Prix Cycliste de Québec.

The Route

The “easier” of the two Québecois classics, the Quebec City race is a challenge nonetheless. 16 laps of 12.6km on an urban circuit, the event favor punchy riders with its collection of small climbs. The circuit starts out flat, then heads downhill, and then gets hard. There are four official climbs in the last 3.5km: first comes the one-two punch of very steep ascents in the Côte de la Montaigne (375m at 10%) and the Côte de la Potasse (420m at 9%), then it’s the Montée de la Fabrique (190m at 7%), and then comes uphill drag to the line, starting on the Montée du Fort and finishing on the Grand Allée (1km at 4%).

The GP Québec tends to be decided in those final few kilometers, as late attackers try to hold of the fast finishers in the bunch. Interestingly, every single Québec winner since the race’s founding in 2010 has been either an Ardennes contender or a Grand Tour talent. The race may have less climbing than Montréal overall, but the uphill finale puts a premium on explosive climbing ability.

The Favorites

The Québec startlist this year involves a nice array of stars with great climbing legs, great finishing ability, and great combinations of the two.

Peter Sagan, who has won the Montréal race, certainly counts as a rider capable of getting clear on the late climbs or winning a finishing sprint. At peak form I’d see him as the rider to beat, but he doesn’t seem to be in top shape right now. He downplayed his chances in the race press conference, and while it’s never smart to trust that sort of thing 100%, he hasn’t really shown much evidence of form in a few months either—he’s a strong contender in any case, just not a heavy favorite.

Greg Van Avermaet has a very similar toolkit, and he also happens to make these races a big priority every year. What’s more, he looks to be in shape, putting in a nice (if unsuccessful) attack late on at the Bretagne Classic. He should be in the mix in the finale.

Etixx may have lost last year’s race winner in the offseason, but they still have serious firepower. In fact, my top race favorite will be sporting an EQS jersey Friday. Julian Alaphilippe has developed into a force in the Ardennes Classics and I think the same skills could win him a Canadian GP. If he makes a late attack, he’s got the climbing chops to hold on through the uphill finishing straight. If it comes down to a reduced sprint, he’s fast enough to beat most of the startlist. Tom Boonen and Petr Vakoc make strong alternatives to defend the title for EQS.

Michael Matthews and Bryan Coquard stand to benefit most from a bunch finale. Matthews is probably a bit stronger as a candidate given his history in hillier races, but Coquard has decent climbing legs too. Sam Bennett is another option for a potential sprint.

Lampre’s duo of Rui Costa and Diego Ulissi is impressive, as both riders have done well here in the past. If Ulissi were a more consistent, dependable rider, I could see him dominating this race given his skillset (very similar to Alaphilippe’s), but as he runs hot and cold, it’s hard to see him as a top favorite.

Trek’s Bauke Mollema is another rider who can climb, solo, and event sprint in a pinch. On the heels of his San Sebastián win, he can’t be overlooked.

Rigoberto Urán is back for more this year with a new team (Cannondale) though it’s hard to see him as a strong contender. I think his win last year was more about the surprise factor than anything else. I will say that he is a lot more explosive than people realize and probably could have a had a great career as a one-day racer if he’d actually focused on it. But his form is a question mark and he won’t be able to sneak past anyone this year, so Tom-Jelte Slagter and Ramunas Navardauskas look like just as strong options for the team as last year’s winner.

Lotto-Soudal, much like Cannondale, has a few nice options to attack the finale. Tim Wellens, who won in Montréal, can’t be allowed too much room. Neither can Tiesj Benoot or Jürgen Roelandts.

Adam Yates, Romain Bardet, Alexis Vuillermoz, Fabio Aru, Geraint Thomas, Gianni Moscon, Ilnur Zakarin, Jarlinson Pantano, and Simon Geschke are others to watch.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Julian Alaphilippe
Podium: Greg Van Avermaet, Peter Sagan
Other Top Contenders: Michael Matthews, Rui Costa, Diego Ulissi, Bauke Mollema, Bryan Coquard, Romain Bardet, Jarlinson Pantano

September 8, 2016
Vuelta a España 2016: Stage 19 Preview

Stage 19: Xàbia › Calp 37km

Friday’s stage will be one of the most important of the Vuelta, because two riders currently sitting in the top 5 overall are far better against the clock than their three rivals at the top.

At 37km, the TT is long enough for time gaps of at least a minute if not two or even three between the red jersey hopefuls. And without any challenging climbs (and really only sustained uphill section on the route), the parcours favors the chrono specialists.

In the absence of any big time trial stars, Chris Froome has a great chance to take the stage victory. After two years of less stellar results in the TTs, Froome has proven again this year that i’s a discipline in which he excels.

His main challenge should come from Jonathan Castroviejo, who roll down the start ramp with the added advantage of not having been racing for GC for two weeks. I give Froome the slight edge, but it’s close.

Alberto Contador could also contend for the stage victory. He’s been pretty stellar against the clock these last few years.

Beyond those three, Luis León Sánchez, Tobias Ludvigsson, Andrew Talansky, Leopold König, and Vegard Stake Laengen are others with a chance at the stage win. I think the dropoff between the trio of Froome, Castroviejo, and Contador and then the rest of the field is a pretty clear one, but anything can happen in a TT in the third week of a Grand Tour, where some would-be contenders might be worn out from hard work over the course of a tough race.

VeloHuman Stage 19 Favorites

1. Chris Froome | 2. Jonathan Castroviejo | 3. Alberto Contador

September 8, 2016
Vuelta a España 2016: Stage 18 Preview

Stage 18: Requena › Gandía – 200.6km

Stage 18 is reminiscent of Stage 16, with a profile that involves a lot of descending and a flat finish. The parcours should be forgiving enough to allow the sprinters a shot at the stage win, which would make the outcome reminiscent of Stage 16 as well.

Jempy Drucker was quiet in the first few stages of the Vuelta, but it’s hard to overlook him now that he’s proven his form. He took advantage of Etixx’s poorly timed leadout to win Stage 16, but it wasn’t all that close, leading me to believe that he should be capable of another victory even without help from his opponents.

That said, Gianni Meersman has generally looked strong in this race and his squad should be capable of executing a leadout better than they did Monday. A well-shepherded Meersman is capable of beating anyone here.

Jonas van Genechten hasn’t put his strength on display again in this Vuelta since taking his stage win, but he’s certainly a threat. Nikias Arndt is too, though he’s been far less impressive than I expected at the start of the race. Kristian Sbaragli, Magnus Cort Nielsen, and Fabio Felline are others to keep an eye on for a potential sprint.

Given the length of the stage and its position on the overall Vuelta itinerary (with just three stages left), it is entirely possible that the sprinters’ teams drop the ball here. Should that happen, Luis León Sánchez, Thomas De Gendt, Jan Bakelants, and Niki Terpstra are names to remember.

VeloHuman Stage 18 Favorites

1. Jempy Drucker | 2. Gianni Meersman | 3. Nikias Arndt

September 8, 2016