Tag: Favourites

Tour de Romandie 2015 Preview

The Classics are in the rearview mirror but the WorldTour drives on, with the Tour of Romandie the next race on the docket. A six-stage event in the French-speaking part of Switzerland, Romandie has drawn an excellent startlist of big GC names to race its scenic parcours (said scenery one of the many topic’s discussed in the latest Recon Ride, which is worth checking out).

The Route

The Tour de Romandie opens with a team time trial. It’s got a small hill near the end but otherwise it’s relatively flat; at 19.2 kilometers, it’s not long, but it’s not short either, and there will likely be gaps large enough to give a few contenders a sizable advantage.

Stage 2 is a bumpy 166.1km day that will likely see some attempts to get clear on the Cat. 2 climb crested with less than 10km to go, though a major GC shakeup seems unlikely. Stages 3 and 4 have up-and-down profiles but don’t have any major ascents: the sprinters will try to hold on and their teams will try to keep breakaways from going the distance.

Stage 5 is likely to be the most decisive stage of the race, with four Category 1 climbs on the menu, including one to close out the stage.

Stage 5: Fribourg › Champex-Lac (166.1km) – The clear “queen” stage of the Tour de Romandie is the mountainous Stage 5.

The ascent to the summit finish is particularly challenging, 14.2km at 7%, and after a day of tough climbing, plenty of would-be GC contenders will likely run out of gas on the incline.

The Tour de Romandie finishes with a 17.3km individual time trial. There is two-part climb in the middle of the course but not one so steep as to make this a climber-friendly ITT: the big engines should thrive here.

The GC Contenders

Chris Froome will be looking to take his third Tour de Romandie in a row this year, but his run-up to this race has not been ideal. Illness forced him to withdraw from Tirreno-Adriatico in March, he was unable to put up much of a showing in his Catalunya return, and then he suffered a bad fall in La Flèche Wallonne. Apparently he’s healthy enough to race, but form is an unknown. He did appear to be going well enough on the road to the Mur de Huy before his crash, and he did ultimately finish the race. His record here and elite combination of climbing and chrono talent (and his team’s) make him hard to pick against as the top favorite again this year, but there is always the possibility that he is just nowhere near racing shape, and competition will be fierce. Geraint Thomas and Nicolas Roche will be around to play support roles or act as alternatives if necessary, which is quite a luxury for Sky.

Vincenzo Nibali did not land any big results in the Ardennes, but he did show himself to be fit. The chrono mileage doesn’t particularly suit him compared to some of the more ITT-savvy riders here, but he’s demonstrated form more recently than most of the other big names on the startlist. Jakob Fuglsang will make the start as well and figures to play a role for the team coming off of back-to-back Ardennes Top 10s. Fuglsang and Nibali were both in the Top 10 last year and it would be a surprise not to see them both in the mix again this year.

Nairo Quintana’s presence on the startlist means that three of cycling’s so-called Big Four will take on the Tour de Romandie, with Alberto Contador being the only missing rider of the quartet. Quintana, like Nibali, would prefer more climbing and less time trialing. What’s more, although Movistar often field a very strong TTT squad, most of their big chrono guns are sitting this race out. That means that Quintana will have a lot of work to do on Stage 5. Still, he has looked great on the slopes this year and will relish the opportunity to face off against his Tour de France rivals.

Rigoberto Urán is one of the top favorites for next month’s Giro d’Italia, and that means he’ll likely be close to top form in this race. He’s also an elite time trialist riding for EQS, who field an elite TTT squad (which includes Tony Martin) here as well. The Tour de Romandie suits him very well, and he should be in the mix for the overall victory.

Simon Spilak has been runner-up in this race to Chris Froome for two years running. He tends to perform very well in Switzerland, and he’s got a strong all-round skillset that should keep him in contention on both the climbs in the time trials.

Rui Costa also performs at an extremely high-level in Switzerland, with a statistically anomalistic three straight 3rd-place finishes in this race and three straight wins in the Tour de Suisse. He was only so-so in País Vasco but he looked good in the Ardennes Classics and his tendency to ride aggressively on bumpy profiles will be beneficial with this route. I expect Costa to be fighting with the top favorites for the win.

AG2R’s JC Peraud is well suited to the parcours and heading up a powerful team, though one that is likely to lose ground in the opening TTT. Romain Bardet is another option here, though he’ll need to be very aggressive on the climbs to overcome lacking ITT skills in addition to the team’s weak chrono. Mathias Frank of IAM Cycling tends to do quite well in his home country of Switzerland, though the TTT will likely make this a difficult race for him as well. FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot should be in the mix, with Swiss all-rounder Steve Morabito making the start as a nice second. BMC’s Rohan Dennis is an elite time trialist who will hope to handle the difficult climbs. Orica-GreenEdge’s Simon Yates, Lotto Soudal’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka, Cannondale-Garmin’s Dan Martin and Ryder Hesjedal, LottoNL’s Robert Gesink, and Europcar’s Pierre Rolland are other GC types with a chance in this race.

The Stagehunters

Not many pure sprinters are making the trip to the Tour de Romandie, probably because there aren’t many stages that are surefire sprint days. Stages 3 and 4 seem like the most likely opportunities for the quick men, and Giant-Alpecin’s Luka Mezgec, Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo, Sky’s Elia Viviani, and Europcar’s Bryan Coquard look to be the class of the bunch gallopers. The likes of OGE’s Michael Albasini (who won a whopping three stages last year), FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, EQS’s Gianni Meersman and Julian Alaphilippe, and AG2R’s Jan Bakelants are among the riders to watch on the hillier days that could see the heavier pure sprinter-types left behind.

And time trial wonder Tony Martin deserves a mention of his own, given the fact that this race closes out with an ITT. He should be the favorite to win that stage, with only some of the aforementioned chrono-oriented GC men to challenge him.

VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Favorites

GC Winner: Chris Froome
Podium: Rigoberto Urán, Vincenzo Nibali
Other Top Contenders: Rui Costa, Simon Spilak, Nairo Quintana, Jakob Fuglsang, Thibaut Pinot, Jean-Christophe Peraud, Geraint Thomas

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

Photo by Georges Ménager (CC).

April 27, 2015
Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2015 Preview

What better way to close out the Classics season than with the legendary Liège-Bastogne-Liège? The oldest Classic, Liège lives up to its status as a historic (said history covered in more detail in the most recent Recon Ride Podcast) springtime cycling icon with a challenging route that caters to aggressive types with strong climbing legs, and recent editions have offered no shortage of thrills. With most of the familiar veteran contenders and a host of young guns making start, the 2015 edition should not disappoint.

The Route

Liège-Bastogne-Liège is a long one at 253 kilometers, and the road from Liége to the finishing town of Ans is lined with difficult climbs (officially, there are ten). This is especially true in the final 90 kilometers of the race, where eight of the ten ascents big enough to warrant an icon on the official race profile await the peloton.

The last three in particular really put the hurt on, typically whittling down the peloton and launching attacks as well: the Côte de La Redoute (2 km at an average grade of 8.9%), the Côte de la Roche-aux-Faucons (1.5 km at an average grade of 9.4%), and the Côte de Saint-Nicolas (1.2 km at 8.6%). Saint-Nicolas, crested just 5 kilometers from the line, is a popular place to strike out for glory. The race finishes on a gradient as well, with a climb into Ans of more than a kilometer.

With the abundance of challenging climbs and a lot of kilometers between the start and the finish, Liège wears down the peloton, but also offers opportunities for those strong enough to get clear. Sometimes the race ends in a small sprint, but there are always attacks to be marshaled, and endurance and great climbing legs are critical here.

The Contenders

Last year’s winner Simon Gerrans looks to still be recovering from a crash, meaning that Orica-GreenEdge is probably riding for the likes of Michael Albasini. That might open up the contenders conversation a bit, but fresh off his third career Flèche Wallonne victory, two-time Liège winner Alejandro Valverde comes into the race as the hot favorite. His elite climbing legs and deadly finishing kick make him an obvious choice for this race, and the form he has shown recently confirm has status as the rider to beat this year.

Michal Kwiatkowski was 3rd last year and comes into this year’s edition with Amstel Gold Race-winning confidence. His already impressive sprint has clearly improved this year, and he’s a great solo artist. It won’t be easy to match the climbing legs of some of the star uphill chargers in this race, but if Kwiatkowski can survive some of the steeper sections of the road, he’ll be able to outsprint most of the contenders in the race or outpower them in a late break to the finish.

After his incredible Basque Country performance, Joaquim Rodríguez was a bit of a disappointment only coming in 4th at La Flèche Wallonne, but this is the grand prize and the one he’s been hunting for so long. The rare soloing form he showed in the País Vasco time trial could come in handy here, matched with his elite climbing ability. This is also a race where a strong team can make a big difference, and Katusha is among the strongest. Daniel Moreno and Giampaolo Caruso, both Top 10 finishers last year, are excellent cards to play for the Russian outfit.

Dan Martin won this race in 2013 and came close to winning in 2014 before a late crash ruined his shot at victory. He’s obviously a rider to watch, but he’ll be in unknown shape following a crash at La Fléche Wallonne. If he’s healthy, he’ll be in the mix to win. Tom-Jelte Slagter is a nice backup option in case he isn’t.

Philippe Gilbert is another former winner of the race in unknown health following a crash, though unlike Dan Martin, he’s not been as successful in recent years. He looked okay at the Amstel Gold Race but he was unable to stay clear at the top of the Cauberg. Health, form, and top-level ability at this point in his career are all question marks now.

Vincenzo Nibali and Jakob Fuglsang make a great 1-2 punch for Astana. Neither can win in a sprint, but both have great uphill ability and an aggressive streak. Watch for attacks from the light blue jerseys on a late climb like the Côte de la Roche-aux-Faucons. Also watch out for action from Lotto Soudal. Tim Wellens is hunting for glory in the Ardennes and his best shot at a top result is a long-range move. He’s not the best climber or the most powerful soloist on the startlist, but he seems to find an extra gear when he gets up the road on a Belgian climb. Jelle Vanendert and Tony Gallopin are excellent alternatives for the team. AG2R is another squad with multiple excellent options, among them, Romain Bardet and Domenico Pozzovivo, both Top 10 finishers last year.

Rui Costa, Sergio Henao, Roman Kreuziger, Bauke Mollema, Julián Arredondo, and Tom Dumoulin also have a chance at being in the mix in this race.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Alejandro Valverde
Podium: Michal Kwiatkowski, Joaquim Rodríguez
Other Top Contenders: Vincenzo Nibali, Tim Wellens, Dan Martin, Rui Costa, Domenico Pozzovivo, Tony Gallopin, Bauke Mollema

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Les Meloures (CC).

April 25, 2015
La Flèche Wallonne 2015 Preview

After the opening act of the Amstel Gold Race, the hilly Classics specialists head to Belgium for La Flèche Wallonne. A rare midweek WorldTour one-day event, it’s more than just a warmup for Liège-Bastogne-Liège: the “Walloon Arrow” is a major prize for the explosive climbers, and they’re here in droves for the 2015 edition.

The Route

The shortest of the Ardennes week trio, La Flèche Wallonne is only 205.5 km in total. Its 11 classified climbs range from 1 kilometer to 2.9 kilometers in length and 4.8% to 9.6% in average gradients—these are all short climbs, but most are at least somewhat steep, and some are downright brutal. The final two climbs in particular are quite demanding from a vertical standpoint.

The organizers added the Côte de Cherave to the route this year as the penultimate uphill challenge. 1.3 kilometers at 8.1%, it could be a nice launching pad with only about 5 km to go. But the real test will be the final climb, the Mur de Huy. The peloton will actually crest the iconic Wall of Huy three times in this race, but the last will be the most important, because the finish line is at the top of the climb. 1.3 km at 9.6%, it’s a vicious ascent that has no mercy for those without pure climbing ability. The winding slopes of the Mur deaden any momentum the riders bring with them into the ascent, forcing would-be winners to rely on raw uphill strength for almost the entirety of the way up (though things flatten out a bit at the very top). Coming at the end of a day full of climbs, it’s even more of a challenge.

Knowing that the Mur is coming, riders tend to try to keep a lot of energy in reserve in this race. That being the case, even with a new and difficult climb added so close to the line, it seems likely that many of the favorites will still plan to wait until the slopes of the Mur de Huy to launch their bids for glory. It’s possible that someone slips away before the pack reaches the the final climb, but it seems more probable that, as in years past, the Mur will remain the battleground on which La Flèche Wallonne is decided.

The Contenders

Neither Amstel nor Liège end on an uphill, and they are therefore open to victory bids from those with strong sprints or powerful soloing engines. But a race that ends on the Mur de Huy is almost guaranteed to go a rider with an elite uphill kick. Alejandro Valverde certainly fits the bill, which is probably why he’s won the race twice, including last year. He’s among the two or three most explosive uphill chargers in cycling, and his three-win Catalunya performance and runner-up ride at Amstel prove his great form right now. He’s got a great chance of doubling up here this year. He may be able to rely on Nairo Quintana to try something late in the day to put the pressure on Movistar’s rivals as well.

Right up there in the discussion of most explosive climber in cycling is Katusha’s Joaquim Rodríguez, also a past winner here. Purito isn’t quite as strong as Valverde in a flat finish, but I rate his upward kick (when he’s at his best) ever so slightly above Valverde’s—and I think he’s currently quite close to his best. Rodríguez did not factor much in Amstel, but that parcours isn’t really his style; La Flèche Wallonne, on the other hand, suits him perfectly. Purito showed incredible form in the Basque Country and one would imagine he’s carried it into the Ardennes. Katusha must be excited to make the start here, having what is clearly the best team in the race. Daniel Moreno won here in 2013, and Giampaolo Caruo, who seems to get better every year despite being well over 30, has consistently been a factor in the hilly one-day events these past few seasons. Tiago Machado is no slouch either. With so many options, Katusha is likely to launch one uphill assault after another, and that will make them very difficult to counter.

Dan Martin has come close to victory here in the past, and seems destined to win at some point in his career given his excellent skillset for the Mur de Huy. Runner-up in 2014, he’s got a great uphill kick and an aggressive streak to match. He has improved tactically since his 4th place in 2013 that might have been a win if he hadn’t started the Mur so out of position. It seems likely that he’ll again be among those fighting for the win this year. Cannondale can send Tom-Jelte Slagter on the offensive as well.

Chris Froome will likely get plenty of media attention coming into this race, but it’s his teammate Sergio Henao that Sky’s rivals will really be watching. He sat out the 2014 edition but was 2nd to Daniel Moreno in 2013, and a recent 2nd-place in Pais Vasco shows his excellent form. With Froome and Nicolas Roche and Wout Poels as alternatives or support options, Sky can be aggressive in this race.

Amstel Gold Race winner Michal Kwiatkowski was 3rd here in 2014. He launched his attack relatively early in that edition and looked good into the final few hundred meters before being passed by Dan Martin and Alejandro Valverde. This pure climber’s finale doesn’t suit him as well as Amstel or Liège, simply because he just doesn’t quite have the uphill ability that Purito and some of the other top contenders here have, but he’s a better soloist and a better sprinter than practically anyone else with a chance in this race. That means that he could try something a bit long distance, or alternatively, try to hold the right wheel all the way to top of the Mur where things flatten out, and in either scenario, he’ll have a chance.

Rui Costa looked good at Amstel and is constantly underrated as a climber (and as a time trialist, and as a sprinter for that matter). With Diego Ulissi as a fine second, Lampre can probably make something happen here. Trek has the excellent 1-2 punch of Bauke Mollema and Julián Arredondo—Arredondo has the perfect skillset for La Flèche Wallonne but hasn’t shown much lately. If he’s got some form hidden away he’ll be in the mix. AG2R’s Carlos Betancur also has an excellent skillset for La Flèche Wallonne; at his best, few would be able to match him in this race. He has done almost nothing from a results standpoint in over a year, but he didn’t look too bad at Amstel and will be worth watching here. Lotto Soudals’s Jelle Vanendert and Tim Wellens could get involved. Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali and Jakob Fuglsang, both clearly hungry for one-day success, will almost certainly try to be aggressive as the day nears its conclusion. Philippe Gilbert has won here in the past and will probably be up there again, but a podium performance at this stage in his career seems highly unlikely—he is not climbing like he used to. Samuel Sanchez could be a nice alternative option for BMC. OGE’s Simon Yates and Michael Albasini, LottoNL’s Wilco Kelderman, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka and Roman Kreuziger are others who could get involved.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Joaquim Rodriguez
Podium: Alejandro Valverde, Daniel Martin
Other Top Contenders: Michal Kwiatkowski, Sergio Henao, Rui Costa, Daniel Moreno, Philippe Gilbert, Simon Yates, Vincenzo Nibali

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for plenty more live analysis during the race.

Photo by umelog (CC).

April 21, 2015
Amstel Gold Race 2015 Preview

The Classics calendar leaves the rough cobblestones of Flanders and northern France behind for the short, steep bergs of the Netherlands Sunday at the Amstel Gold Race. The uphill chargers will face off on a bumpy parcours in the Limburg province, the first of three puncheur-friendly WorldTour races often called the “Ardennes Classics” (though the Amstel Gold Race doesn’t actually go through the Ardennes forest.

The Route

Even at a long 251 kilometers in full, with 34 classified climbs from start to finish, the Amstel Gold Race is a roller-coaster ride throughout. The trip from Maastricht to Berg en Terblijt is one of constant ups and downs, with plenty of road furniture along the way to boot.

On paper, the route and profile look perfect for aggressive racing, and recent editions have seen successful long-range attackers. But historically, this race has quite often been all about the very last uphill test, the Cauberg. It’s a little over a kilometer long at just under a 5% average gradient, but with some seriously steep stuff in the middle. From the top of the final ascent (the peloton will visit the iconic climb multiple times on the day) of the Cauberg, it’s still almost two kilometers to the line, a relatively recent route alteration that requires those who get away on the last slope to maintain their gap over a flat stretch before the finish.

The Contenders

Whether this race is won with a long-range attack, a charge up the Cauberg, or a finishing sprint in the final drag, explosiveness is the critical trait for any would-be contender in the Amstel Gold Race: explosiveness to get clear in a breakaway attempt, to launch up the last climb, or to win a bunch kick in the finishing straight. The Amstel Gold Race is a puncheur’s playground.

Philippe Gilbert is the peloton’s most successful active Amstel Gold Racer, and generally, the sport’s dominant figure on the Cauberg climb. He’s won this race three times, and won his rainbow jersey atop the Cauberg in 2012. This race suits him down to the ground, and his 3rd place in the recent Brabantse Pijl suggests he’s in good shape. Still, he’s not the Philippe Gilbert he once was, and all eyes will be on him in the last few kilometers. He won’t be able to slip away. As strong as he is here, this startlist is packed with hungry uphill specialists, it won’t be easy for him to get clear even on his favored terrain, and a few of the other likely contenders could probably beat him in a sprint if he can’t drop them. He’s the oddsmakers’ favorite for obvious reasons, but winning a force Amstel will be a real challenge. Regardless, having Samuel Sanchez, Greg Van Avermaet, and Ben Hermans around to launch attacks does give BMC plenty of cards to play.

Alejandro Valverde has never won here, but his uphill burst is one of the best in cycling, and his ability to win a sprint even in a flat finish makes him particularly dangerous. In blazing form after a three-stage-win Catalunya, Valverde has a terrific chance of winning this race.

Michal Kwiatkowski, 5th last year, also has a strong uphill burst and an excellent finishing kick. One advantage he may have even over the versatile Alejandro Valverde in this finale is a talent for late solo moves. He earned his Worlds title with a brilliant late attack in Ponferrada, and with the finish line still over a kilometer from the top of the Cauberg, his time trialing skills will come in very handy.

Simon Gerrans is perfectly suited to this parcours, but he is probably still a bit lacking in the form department after an early season injury. Orica-GreenEdge will likely put their faith in Michael Matthews instead, who just landed his second straight 2nd-place result in Brabantse Pijl. If the punchier riders can’t get separation, Matthews has a great chance of winning this race in a sprint.

Joaquim Rodríguez has the punch to thrive on the Cauberg, and showed incredible form in Pais Vasco. The flat stretch that follows from the top of the final climb is not great for his skillset but he may be strong enough to open up a winning gap on the uphill drag. Teammate Daniel Moreno also has plenty of punch, and a decent sprint as well.

Sergio Henao is another talented climber with a fair bit of punch, and he showed strong form in the Basque Country. Daniel Martin would probably fare better with a purely uphill finish too, but he does have a nice finishing kick if he manages to get into a small group in the finale—Tom-Jelte Slagter is another option for Cannondale.

With an impressive trio of Jelle Vandendert (twice 2nd here), Tony Gallopin, and Tim Wellens, Lotto Soudal will almost certainly be in the mix for the win. Wellens is a great candidate to go from afar. Giant-Alpecin’s Tom Dumoulin is another great long-range candidate. His elite soloing ability combined with an ever-improving finishing kick make him a terrific outsider for victory.

Lampre’s Rui Costa and Diego Ulissi, Wanty-Groupe Gobert’s Enrico Gasparotto, Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Roman Kreuziger, Trek’s dangerous trio of Bauke Mollema, Julián Arredondo, and Fabio Felline, CCC’s Davide Rebellin, and AG2R’s Carlos Betancur and Jan Bakelants are others hoping to get into the mix.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Michal Kwiatkowski
Podium: Alejandro Valverde, Philippe Gilbert
Other Top Contenders: Michael Matthews, Joaquim Rodriguez, Jelle Vanendert, Tim Wellens, Daniel Moreno, Sergio Henao, Tom Dumoulin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis.

-Dane Cash

Photo by By Jakub Cerveny (CC).

April 18, 2015
Paris-Roubaix 2015 Preview

After weeks of exciting racing in Northern Europe, the grand finale of the Cobbled Classics has arrived. Paris-Roubaix gets underway Sunday morning in the small town of Compiegne, about an hour North of Paris by car, and after roughly six hours of racing, 2015 will crown its third Monument winner.

The Route

The route of Paris-Roubaix 2015 is much like the route of Paris-Roubaix 2014, with the same few sectors of especially vicious cobbles likely to force selection. Its name notwithstanding, Paris-Roubaix starts in the town of Compiègne, about an hour north of Paris. The first 98 km are, comparatively, quite easy, but then the peloton will hit the first of twenty-seven classified cobbled sections.

The Troisvilles sector that kicks things off is not among the hardest but after nearly 100 km of growing tension there will be a mad dash for position and things are likely to get a bit chippy. Other sectors of only moderate difficulty follow, until the first five-star sector, the Arenberg trench, reached at kilometer 158. 2.4 km of very challenging cobbles, plenty of riders see their Roubaix hopes meet an early demise on the rough terrain. The run-up to the Arenberg is typically where the action starts in earnest in Paris-Roubaix, and after that, it doesn’t stop, with several difficult sectors to follow before another particularly challenging sector, Mons-en-Pévèle. 204.5 km into the race, it is a very long stretch of cobblestones at 3 kilometers, and a place likely to see a few long-range attackers attempting to get clear.

After a few more cobbled sectors comes the final five-star challenge, the Carrefour de l’Arbre, 2.1 km of particularly nasty cobbles. As the pack, or what’s left of it, will hit this section with only 17 kilometers remaining in the race, it’s the perfect spot to launch an attack. Those who survive the Carrefour de l’Arbre will only face three more comparatively easy cobbled sections before the race finishes with 800 meters in the Roubaix velodrome.

“Anything can happen” is a mantra often used and reused to describe bike races, but nowhere else does it ring true quite like it does here. Positioning is critical, with the peloton stretching out and tightening up again constantly, and with attacks flying at all times. On this difficult terrain, mechanical problems are always a major concern, and in so many of the difficult sections along the road to Roubaix, help can be a long time coming if a rider needs a new wheel. Talking to VeloHuman at the team presentation, Heinrich Haussler noted: “The whole race, you get a flat tire in the wrong spot, you might as well just jump in the car.”

The Contenders

Few races reward pure strength the way Paris-Roubaix does, with its practically pancake-flat parcours and its bruising cobbled sectors that favor those riders with a bit of weight to keep them from bouncing around on the difficult road surface. Simply put, it’s a race that strongly favors the powerful cobbled specialists, especially those with good bike handling skills.

Etixx-QuickStep is bursting at the seams with Classics specialists, and yet they still have not come away with a top-level win on the cobbles this year. This is their last chance, but they will have a great opportunity to make things right here. Niki Terpstra is the defending champion, and the Dutch 30-year-old has shown strong form throughout the spring races in 2015. His 2nd in the Tour of Flanders proved his excellent fitness right now, and given his elite soloing talent, he makes for a great card to play for EQS here. Zdenek Stybar, though, might be the prime pick for the Belgian superteam. His combination of bike handling skills, endurance, and a nice finishing kick are perfect for this race, and he’s come close here in the past. The tooth problems that plagued him in Flanders have been fixed, and he’s shown great form this season. Stijn Vandenbergh is another very strong option for the team. QuickStep can send one rider after another off the front here and that puts them in prime position to finally come away with a win in the top Classics.

Alexander Kristoff comes in as the big name on everyone’s minds after his stunning Flanders win. Roubaix has not been a great race for him in the past but with the form he has shown lately and his incredible skillset, there’s no reason why this shouldn’t be another opportunity for him to win a big event. However, it won’t be easy for Katusha to corral what are likely to be constant attacks from Kristoff’s rivals (even with a very strong Luca Paolini on the team), and favorite status won’t help Kristoff either. Knowing how fast he will be in the velodrome, every other rival in this race will look to leave Kristoff behind at any opportunity, and that will make things pretty difficult for the Norwegian. He’s obviously a very dangerous rider, but pulling off a Flanders-Roubaix double would be an enormous feat.

John Degenkolb is the other “sprinter” near the top of the favorites discussion right now. Runner-up in 2014, he’s one of the few who might be able to beat Kristoff in a sprint, and he mentioned his and his team’s very high levels of confidence multiple times at the team presentation in Compiégne, saying that he has no fear if the race comes down to a sprint battle with Kristoff in the velodrome. He’s obviously strong this year after winning Milano-Sanremo, but his results in the other Cobbled Classics haven’t quite been as expected. Still, he’s already shown how well he can ride in this race, and even though he just won a Monument Classic last month, Kristoff’s recent success has taken all of the spotlight perhaps allowing him to enjoy a bit of under-the-radar status.

Bradley Wiggins rode to 9th here last year with practically no cobbled racing prep, and this year he’s got his sights set completely on a Roubaix win to close out his Team Sky career. In a race where time trialists often thrive, Wiggins has the requisite power for a big result. The question is whether he has the handling skills and the Classics savvy—many ridres spend years gaining experience here, gradually chipping away at results. Wiggins has been incredibly successful in his career when he has put his mind to even a very difficult goal, but this is asking a lot. He also doesn’t have much of a finishing kick, meaning that he’ll basically need to drop all of his rivals. He has a shot, but it won’t be easy. Geraint Thomas, on blazing form this Classics season, has done well here in the past and should do well again. Ian Stannard and Luke Rowe are nice alternatives for Sky.

Sep Vanmarcke was the runner-up in 2013, missing out on the victory because he couldn’t outsprint Fabian Cancellara in the velodrome. To me, he seems much quicker at the line these days, but he’s been lacking something in the Cobbled Classics this year. He can handle the cobbles more adeptly than almost anyone in the sport and that makes him deadly here but, simply put, he’ll need to better here than he was in Flanders.

Greg Van Avermaet has not had the success here that he’s had in other cobbled races but his speedy finishing kick and excellent team (with strong Daniel Oss as a second) makes him dangerous. Peter Sagan only notched his first Top 10 here last year, but his Classics prep this season has left him looking more powerful and perhaps better suited to this race than he was in the past. More under-the-radar than usual after weeks of missing out on big results, he could benefit from a rare lack of eyes pointed in his direction.

Lotto Soudal has a three-pronged attack with Jürgen Roelandts, Tiesj Benoot, and the surprising André Greipel. Similarly, IAM Cycling has the trio of Sylvain Chavanel, Heinrich Haussler, and the surprising Martin Elmiger—Haussler told VH that Elmiger said prior to Flanders that he is in the form of his life, and he proved it at the Ronde. That could come in handy in this race where having multiple strong teammates in crucial. Astana’s Lars Boom has looked strong this year and this race suits his cyclocross background and time trialing prowess. Cannondale’s Sebastian Langeveld, Lampre’s Filippo Pozzato, FDJ’s Arnaud Démare, Trek’s Stijn Devolder, and OGE’s Jens Keukeleire are on the list of outsiders with a shot in Paris-Roubaix.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Zdenek Stybar
Podium: Bradley Wiggins, Alexander Kristoff
Other Top Contenders: Niki Terpstra, Sep Vanmarcke, Peter Sagan, John Degenkolb, Geraint Thomas, Greg Van Avermaet, Stijn Vandenbergh

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis (from the roadside) of Paris-Roubaix 2015.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Brendan Ryan.

April 11, 2015
Vuelta Ciclista al País Vasco 2015 Preview

While the Cobbled Classics stars do battle in Northern Europe, many of the peloton’s top climbers are headed to the Basque Country for the Vuelta Ciclista al País Vasco. With a parcours that includes both climbs and an ITT, it attracts plenty of Grand Tour-style riders. It also happens to be a hilly race just a few days in advance of the Ardennes Classics, and therefore, it draws many of the likely protagonists of those races as well. True to form, the 2015 edition boasts an appealing, bumpy route and a strong startlist of stars with a variety of specializations.

The Route

There isn’t a lot of flat in the Vuelta al País Vasco. Potential launching pads are everywhere in this race.

Stages 1 and 2 both involve some hills and both end with downhill sections; sprint finishes (likely reduced) are possible, though only if the interested teams can work well to keep any attacks on a short leash. Stage 3 will test the riders with eight categorized climbs, which will almost certainly break things up.

Stage 4 finishes at Arrate just after a Cat. 1 summit. The race often sees a major shakeup here. Another eight-climb day on Stage 5 (closing out with a Cat. 2) will probably see plenty more action. None of these climbs are terribly long, meaning that those riders who can put some punch into a quick uphill charge will thrive.

Stage 6, the final day of racing, is an 18.3-kilometer ITT. The first half is downhill, but then the road goes up, and then down, and then up again towards the finish. Those two uphill sections are pretty tough, which will make this an interesting chrono to close out the Tour of the Basque Country

The General Classification Contenders

Although he would probably prefer the climbs to be more alpine in nature, 2013 winner Nairo Quintana looks like the top contender for the Tour of the Basque Country. Quintana knows how to win this race, he does well even in the time trials here (and this hilly ITT will suit him more than most), and he recently displayed incredible form when he won Tirreno-Adriatico ahead of a powerhouse field. It’s hard to see anyone matching him on the climbs, and he should be able to hold his own on the final stage time trial. With Beñat Intxausti and Ion Izagirre on the startlist as well, Movistar has a stacked lineup for this race.

Michal Kwiatkowski of EQS is the other top favorite for this race. 2nd last year, he has looked to be in excellent form (which he showed with a 2nd place in the recent Paris-Nice. Due to his nice sprint, he would surely prefer bonus seconds, but his explosiveness will suit him plenty even without added time bonuses at the line. He also happens to be one of the best time trialists in the world. It won’t be easy, but if he can hang with Quintana on the tough uphill stuff in this race, he should manage to take a victory on the back of his impressive chrono skills. Tony Martin, who can climb better than many realize, could have a chance at the overall as well.

A powerhouse BMC squad the includes Tejay van Garderen, Rohan Dennis, Samuel Sánchez, and Darwin Atapuma can’t be overlooked. Van Garderen has had a bit of an up-and-down season but his form looked very good at the queen stage of the Volta a Catalunya. If he can manage to avoid having a bad day here (the rainy Basque Country won’t make that easy) he should contend, especially given his great ITT skills. Rohan Dennis obviously sports a strong ITT as well, and is improving as a climber with every race, while Samuel Sanchez seems to always do well in this race, given his punchy skillset, well-suited to the parcours. Atapuma is a bit of a wildcard. He doesn’t get many opportunities to ride for himself but he just put in a nice Top 10 in Catalunya and could get some freedom here.

Rui Costa will love this route (he is a specialist on this sort of terrains) and his ability to put in a nice time trial, especially on a hilly profile, is constantly underrated by cycling analysts. That makes him a strong contender.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot has improved as a time trialist and, 2nd in the Critérium International, he seems to have the for necessary to be in the mix here. AG2R’s Jean-Christophe Peraud has been a strong time trialist for a long time and, 1st in the Critérium International, he most certainly has the form necessary to be in the mix here.

Bauke Mollema, 2nd at Tirreno-Adriatico, could continue to shine here. His form in Italy was impressive; he seemed to ride there at a level above what he can typically muster. It’s hard to say whether that will continue here but if the same Bauke Mollema shows up, he’ll contend for the win, with teammate Julián Arredondo an option for Trek as well. Meanwhile, Joaquim Rodriguez is on unknown form after skipping the Volta a Catalunya, but obviously he’s a very dangerous rider in this ultra-hilly race, especially with the Ardennes Classics looming. Simon Spilak was impressive at Paris-Nice and Daniel Moreno is always a strong alternative as well. Andrew Talansky, Tom Dumoulin, Mikel Nieve and Sergio Henao, Adam Yates and Esteban Chaves, and Rafal Majka are others with a shot at the GC in this Tour of the Basque Country.

The Stagehunters

The parcours seems to be deterring the class of pure sprinters who lack versatility from making the trip, but there are plenty of in-between types with fast finishes and strong climbing legs who will hope to bag stage wins here. Michael Matthews, Ben Swift, and Gianni Meersman look to be the class of the bunch, all capable of hanging on over uphill challenges and battling it out at the finish line in a sprint.

Tony Gallopin and Tim Wellens, Philippe Gilbert, Diego Ulissi, Tom-Jelte Slagter, and Simon Gerrans are strong bets to battle it out with the GC types for the intermediate stages that could come down to punchy late attacks or small group sprints; the versatile Lotto duo of Wellens and Gallopin could conceivably contend for the overall if they ride strategically.

And, of course, watch out for Amets Txurruka to try to go on the attack at all times. A constant fixture in KOM competitions in Spanish races, Txurruka has never actually won a WorldTour-level race, but his spirited breakaway attempts have come close in the past.

VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites

Winner: Nairo Quintana
Podium: Michal Kwiatkowski, Tejay van Garderen
Other Top Contenders: Bauke Mollema, Rui Costa, Jean-Christophe Peraud, Thibaut Pinot, Samuel Sánchez, Andrew Talansky, Joaquim Rodríguez

-Dane Cash

Photo by Mikel Ortega.

April 5, 2015