Santander › La Camperona. Valle de Sabero – 200.8 km
Stage 13, won by Dani Navarro, saw a skirmish among the GC riders in its final few kilometers, but the impending fourteenth stage of the Vuelta will likely be an intense battle among the top overall contenders of this race. The uphill challenges on Stage 14 are daunting. Things get started with 70 kilometers of mostly gentle roads before the Cat. 2 Collada de la Hoz kicks off the day’s categorized climbing. After cresting that ascent and then riding a tricky downhill, the peloton will take on approximately twenty kilometers of false flat at a slight incline before reaching the bottom of the Puerto de San Glorio, 20.9 kilometers long at a 5.8% average grade. There are sure to be some tired legs in the pack once they reach the top after over forty kilometers going uphill, but there will still be challenges yet to come on the day. Following a fast descent comes a long stretch of mostly flat roads before the final test. After 192.5 kilometers in the saddle, the peloton will reach the foot of La Camperona, a vicious 8.3 kilometer climb whose average gradient of 7.5% doesn’t really tell the whole story. Things start out relatively easy, but with around 2 kilometers to go, the road kicks up sharply, and it stays in the 15% range, touching well over 20% at points, until the final hundred meters or so, where things ease off to be only a little under 9% in the run to the line.
A profile like this will be absolutely brutal for all but the most lightweight climbing specialists. The GC contenders will be locked in on the final ascent, knowing that a bad day could lead to serious losses on such a steep climb (especially after some hard uphill riding earlier in the day). Stage 14 is likely to end in a major showdown for the red jersey hunters. Whether or not they are riding for stage honors will depend on how they play the run-in to La Camperona; if the pace is kept high over the flat section that precedes the final climb, with riders jostling for position as the slopes approach, the morning break will be doomed. However, there are some tough mountain days to come in the days ahead, which could lead to enough hesitation in the pack that if a truly top-notch climber is up the road, he might have a chance.
The top favorite to shine on this profile is Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez, the peloton’s premier uphill charger. He has put in attacks here and there in this race, but nothing has really stuck so far. This time, the parcours is perfect, and he needs to land a blow soon or he’ll have run out of opportunities to claw back time from those ahead of him on the leaderboard. He has the also explosive Daniel Moreno as an elite second.
Race leader Alberto Contador has been up to every challenge thrown his way in this race so far, and he should continue to shine here. His biggest weakness is his lack of team support, but he may be strong enough for that not to matter. He’s not the type to rest on his laurels (or his current race lead), and if he sees an opportunity to pick up more time on his rivals, he will.
Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde is very dangerous on the extreme gradients, and he’s within striking distance of the overall lead. A strong ride seems likely on Stage 14, but he needs to get more aggressive in this race if he wants to move up to that coveted first spot in the General Classification.
Astana’s Fabio Aru took the eleventh stage of the race with a perfectly timed attack as the finish line approached, and he is still far enough back on GC that the riders at the very top of the leaderboard might give him some leeway if he tries to go on the move again. He has the skillset to achieve more success here. Garmin-Sharp’s Daniel Martin is in a similar boat, and he’s shown with repeated attempts to get away on the steep stuff that he’s highly motivated to get results on these climbs.
Robert Gesink, who looked strong in an ultimately unsuccessful attempt to get clear of the GC bunch on Stage 11, Samuel Sanchez, Stage 13 winner Daniel Navarro, and Warren Barguil are other riders in the GC conversation who could enjoy a bit of freedom and potentially success if they attempt to get clear on the last climb. Chris Froome, who has at times looked very strong, and at times looked to be lacking something in this race, will be put to the test on this gradient; at his best he’d be a top candidate for success, but there won’t be anywhere to hide if he’s not feeling in peak condition when the road shoots skyward on Stage 14. Teammate Mikel Nieve could look to get something of his own if Sky decides to set him loose.
If the pack does put in the effort to keep the breakaway on a tight leash early in the day, it will be very hard for anyone up the road to stay clear all the way to the top of the final climb, but should the GC contenders spend the stage looking at each other instead of worrying about the break, it’s possible that a strong uphill talent could hold out for victory here. Trek’s Julian Arredondo, Garmin-Sharp’s Ryder Hesjedal, Astana’s Mikel Landa, OGE’s Esteban Chaves and Adam Yates, Lampre’s Przemyslaw Niemiec, Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi, and Belkin’s Laurens Ten Dam are on the list of strong-climbing riders who might be able to succeed from the morning breakaway; alternatively, some of the aforementioned group could look to put in a dig a bit closer to the finish line, still benefitting from being far enough out of GC contention that they might be given some breathing room.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Joaquim Rodriguez | 2. Fabio Aru | 3. Alberto Contador
Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 14, so stay tuned.
Stage 11: Pamplona › Santuario de San Miguel de Aralar – 153.4 km
Even after a tough time trial (won by Tony Martin) that saw Alberto Contador take the red jersey and Nairo Quintana and Chris Froome lose a lot of time, dramatically shaking up the General Classification of this race, the peloton won’t have a chance to rest on Stage 11. Another summit finish is on tap. The first two thirds of the stage are relatively tame, without any categorized climbs, but things get a bit more difficult with around 50 kilometers to go, when the road rises at the Puerto de Lizarraga, a Cat. 3 of 18.3 long kilometers with an average grade of 2.6%. It’s an uneven climb with a steep stretch at the top, so it is harder than the low gradient indicates. From the top it’s a tricky descent of about 9 kilometers, and then a stretch of flat before the final climb, a 9.9 kilometer Category 1 with an average gradient of 7.5%. It’s a fairly steady climb, except for a short 14% section at around 2.5 km from the top. The summit finish marks 153.4 kilometers in the saddle, making Stage 10 the second shortest non-TT day in the race: this is likely going to be a fast-paced affair.
The breakaway will have its chance of taking this stage, but if the GC contenders decide to keep the early aggressors on a tight leash, it will be hard for anyone up the road to stay away with a late flat section (likely to see an injection of pace as the GC men jostle for position) and then a tough final climb. Katusha is among the teams who will hope that the battle for stage honors will come down to the GC contenders. Joaquim Rodriguez put in a respectable time trial on Stage 10 to stay within striking distance of the GC title, and he has already shown that he’s on the offensive in this race. The steep section near the finish should be a perfect place for him to strike out for a gap and for bonus seconds. Daniel Moreno makes for a dangerous ally. Katusha’s elite uphill talents will be very hard to keep under control in the last few kilometers of the race.
Alberto Contador no longer has to gain ground on anyone, as the race leader, but without a strong team helping him, sitting tight and waiting for the attacks may not be the best idea. He’s obviously on excellent form, far more so than he was willing to admit publicly at the start of the race, and he’s not the type to rest on his laurels with a great opportunity for more success right in front of him.
Nairo Quintana may have gone down hard on Stage 10 but Movistar isn’t out of this race yet. If the young Colombian wants to get back into this Vuelta a España, he’ll need to attack early and often. Alternatively, if he shifts his attention to helping Alejandro Valverde, attacking early and often (and forcing the other GC riders to chase) would still be a good strategy. Quintana’s form is an unknown after his fall, but if he’s feeling strong enough to attack, he probably will. That would give Valverde the opportunity to latch onto any wheels that go chasing after, and should this come down a sprint (things are a bit easier at the very top), Valverde would of course be the heavy favorite among the top GC contenders. Even if Quintana isn’t at his best, Valverde will still likely be in the mix on Stage 11 on his own. He has looked sharp in this Vuelta and he’s running out of opportunities to add another Grand Tour to his palmares.
Chris Froome, on the other hand, showed in the Stage 10 ITT that he’s just not at his best in this race, giving up nearly a minute to Alberto Contador on a parcours that looked to suit him quite well. He’s still one of the top climbers in the Vuelta, though, with Mikel Nieve as a valuable second, so it would be unwise to overlook Team Sky on this final climb.
Rigoberto Uran put in a great chrono and is now sitting in 3rd overall. He struggled to hold the pace on the first climbing stage of the Vuelta, but since then he’s looked stronger every day. He’s got a nice sprint and if he can hold onto the lead group to the line he’ll have a shot. Fabio Aru has been flying a bit under the radar in this Vuelta but he has looked to be in excellent shape thus far. More than two minutes behind on GC, he might be allowed some room if he puts in an attack, and this final climb suits him very well. Daniel Martin is another rider who could get aggressive. He tried an attack on Stage 9 but was reeled in; he’ll be on the lookout for another opportunity here. Esteban Chaves, who had a very rough day in the ITT, will at least now be less of a marked man should he try to put in a dig on his favored terrain. If he can pick himself up after his disappointing chrono, he could be in the mix (he might even try to his luck in the break). Winner Anacona, unlike compatriot Chaves, had a very impressive ride against the clock on Stage 10 after a very impressive breakaway victory on Stage 9, and those performances have put him into the GC conversation. That will make it harder to successfully attack the pack on the climb, but with the form he’s shown, he still has a shot at a good result on Stage 11 even from the pack and with the top GC contenders watching him more closely.
Should the GC riders allow an early move to stay up the road all day, the long list of potential protagonists for stage honors from afar would include OGE’s Adam Yates, FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot and Kenny Elissonde, Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal and Andrew Talansky, Lampre’s Jose Serpa and Przemyslaw Niemiec, Trek’s Julian Arredondo, BMC’s Cadel Evans, Astana’s Mikel Landa, Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi, Caja Rural’s David Arroyo and Amets Txurruka, Belkin’s Laurens Ten Dam, Europcar’s Romain Sicard, and Sky’s Dario Cataldo, among others.
Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 11, so stay tuned.
Stage 10 (ITT): Real Monasterio de Santa María de Veruela › Borja – 36.7 km
Winner Anacona led the peloton into the Vuelta’s first rest day with a win from the breakaway on Stage 9. Now it’s on to the critical Stage 10, a 36.7 km individual time trial. The parcours should open up some significant time gaps among the top GC contenders. The course starts out with a gentle uphill that leads into a short but steep Cat. 3 climb crested 11.2 kilometers into the stage. Then it’s all downhill to the finish. It’s not a straight-out run to the line, with some twists and turns along the way, but it’s not extremely technical. This is likely to be a very high speed chrono.
Tony Martin is the big favorite for stage honors. This is route that will favor chrono specialists, and he is the world’s premier time trialist. He’s also a great descender. It’s hard to see anyone outmatching his engine over 36.7 kilometers.
Behind Martin are several time trialing specialists and GC riders with top-notch chrono ability who should make the battle for Top 3 on the stage a tight one. Fabian Cancellara is obviously a prolific time trialist, and he’ll be one of the few riders with a shot of beating Martin in the World Champs later this month, but form is a bit in question at the moment. He has fallen off the pace even on a few of the flatter stages in this race, and though he’s likely give this time trial far more effort than he has on any stage so far, it may not be enough to match up with the likes of Martin. Cancellara is a strong descender and this is a nice parcours for him, but victory on Stage 10 would be a lot to ask.
This ITT is central to the GC hopes of Chris Froome, and he is one of the few red jersey hunters who excels even on a flatter chrono profile. His time trial performances in this year’s Tour de Romandie and the Criterium du Dauphine were stellar, and if he can recapture that strength here, with motivation running high, he’s likely to be among the top finishers on the day.
Alberto Contador is another GC rider with serious time trialing talent, and he’s a great descender to boot. If his time trialing engine is in as good shape as his climbing legs, he should be able to deliver a top-notch performance on Stage 10. Rigoberto Uran has developed into an elite talent against the clock as well, and he looks to be rounding into form in this race after a disappointing first mountain stage.
Movistar’s Adriano Malori had a hot start to the year, winning a Tirreno-Adriatico time trial ahead of Martin and Cancellara. He hasn’t had as much success in the latter half of the season, but after post-crash injuries robbed him of a chance to take a Grand Tour ITT win in the Giro d’Italia, he’ll be motivated to go for this. Trek’s Kristof Vandewalle beat Malori by 3 seconds to take his first WorldTour win the Tour de Pologne chrono last month, and he’ll be another outsider for stage honors. BMC’s Rohan Dennis put in an underwhelming ride in the Eneco Tour’s time trial stage, but he’ll be eager to show his new team what he’s made of here. Bob Jungels (who is targeting this stage especially), Jesse Sergent, Tobias Ludvigsson, Vasil Kiryienka, Stef Clement, Jonathan Castroviejo, and GC riders Wilco Kelderman and Nairo Quintana (who has improved against the clock this year) are others who could be in the mix on Stage 10.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Tony Martin | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Fabian Cancellara
Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 10, so stay tuned.
Stage 9: Carboneras de Guadazaón › Aramón Valdelinares – 185 km
After Nacer Bouhanni’s bunch sprint victory in Stage 8, the Vuelta heads North and the road gets mountainous. Stage 9 opens with a short downhill and then a long stretch on a slight incline. Roughly 50 kilometers into the day the incline abates for a fast downhill, and then the peloton will take on another long false flat before they reach the foot of the first categorized ascent. The Puerto de Cabigordo is quite a long Cat. 3, 18 kilometers in total, at an average gradient of 3.8%. From the top it’s 36 kilometers of mostly downhill roads to the two-part stage finale: the 11.5 kilometer, 4.2% average grade Alto de San Rafael, and the 8 kilometer, 6.6% average grade Aramón Valdelinares climb that follows almost immediately after. There are only 5.5 kilometers of descent between the two, so it will feel much more like one harsh climb with a quick respite in the middle than two separate tests. Near the very top of the final climb, at the end of a steeper stretch, things do flatten out a bit, opening the stage up for a possible sprint between survivors if a group reaches the line.
A breakaway will have a decent shot at this stage, with plenty of ups and downs after the midway point of the route to make controlling the race hard. However, it’s the day before a rest day, the GC is very tight, and there are bonus seconds on the line, meaning that there is a strong chance that a lot of riders in the pack will want to go full gas. For a long-range attacker to maintain any advantage over the final climb, a wealth of climbing talent will be necessary.
Stage 6 offered the first indications of who is on form and who isn’t in this race, and most of the riders who delivered on that final climb should be in the mix again here. Chris Froome will be a top favorite if this contest comes down to a battle among the GC contenders. He has been sharp in this Vuelta a España, and moreso than the very steep 4.6 km test that decided Stage 6, the final uphill drag that awaits on Stage 9 is much more Froome’s style. With Mikel Nieve as a top-notch lieutenant, Froome will look to take an advantage over his rivals here.
Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde put in a brilliant performance on Stage 6, but this will be a different sort of challenge. Climbs that require an explosive kick suit him perfectly, but over a longer, more drawn-out uphill ride, his post-Tour form will face a new test. He did do a lot of pulling at the front on the lower slopes of the final climb on Stage 6, suggesting that the engine is running well. If he is with the lead group at the finish, his sprint will make him hard to beat. Teammate Nairo Quintana will find this profile suits his skillset quite well, but he did fade a bit on Stage 6 and it’s a bit of a question mark whether the form is where it needs to be just yet. If he has gotten that little bit stronger over the past few days, this will be a nice opportunity for him to get ahead on GC.
Alberto Contador looked quite recovered from his leg injury on Stage 6, and this is an excellent profile for him if he is indeed returning to full strength. This is a longer test, which will offer a better opportunity to gauge his fitness. If it’s all there, he should be right in the mix for stage victory.
Joaquim Rodriguez has looked strong in this race but his performance on a sixth stage that seemed to suit him perfectly left a bit to be desired. He’ll have another shot at landing a good result here, with Daniel Moreno as a strong second.
Astana’s Fabio Aru and OGE’s Johan Esteban Chaves were 6th and 7th, respectively, on Stage 6, and this final uphill test will be a good opportunity for both uphill specialists to get involved in the battle for stage glory.
Daniel Martin definitely underwhelmed on Stage 6, but with that one exception he has looked strong recently, and this will be another chance to get it right. His sprint has been particularly on point, and if he can manage to stick with the lead group until the final kilometer he’ll have a shot in the flatter finish. Rigoberto Uran also struggled on the Cumbres Verdes climb, but typically, this long climb would suit him, and he’s not a bad post-climb sprinter either.
Cofidis’s Dani Navarro outperformed expectations on the Alto Cumbres Verdes and will be an outsider for victory here on Stage 9 if the GC men are indeed fighting for the day’s victory. Belkin has a powerful trio in Laurens Ten Dam, Robert Gesink, and Wilco Kelderman. Gesink and Kelderman in particular have strong finishing kicks if they can manage to stick with the leaders here. Having such strong team support will help. Sergio Pardilla, Warren Barguil, Samuel Sanchez, and Damiano Caruso are others who could be in the mix on Stage 9 if the General Classification riders make up the lead group on the road when the day nears its conclusion.
Thibaut Pinot and Julian Arredondo are both in the Vuelta a España targeting mountain stage victories, both are well-suited to this profile, and both would be allowed off the front if they decided to go for a long one here, but as of yet form is still a question mark for both as well. Ryder Hesjedal looked strong on Stage 7 before his crash, and could be a candidate for stage honors if he can get into the breakaway again here on Stage 9. Hesjedal’s teammate Andrew Talansky, Alessandro De Marchi, Damiano Caruso, George Bennett, Kenny Elissonde, Cadel Evans, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Winner Anacona, Louis Meintjes, Adam Yates, David Arroyo, and Amets Txurruka are others who could have a shot in a long-range strike.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Chris Froome | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Alberto Contador
John Degenkolb took a second straight sprint victory in Stage 5, but his sprinting rivals will have to wait a little while for a shot at revenge, as the Vuelta hits its first serious uphill test in Stage 6. Things will start out calm, as the peloton will set out from Benalmádena and take on over almost 50 kilometers of relatively flat coastal roads before heading inland. Not long after the route changes direction, the road kicks upward to climb the Alto de Zafarraya, a challenging Category 2 of 12.3 kilometers at 5.7%. After the KOM point, the climbing continues on and off over a stretch of rolling roads (with the Category 3 Alto de los Bermejales among the uphill sections that the pack must overcome). Things flatten out again with about 40 km to go, and they stay that way for a while as the peloton heads toward Granada. The riders will pass through the outskirts of town and then the city proper, hitting a pair of intermediate sprint points along the way, but then the route will take them southeast to challenging finale on the Alto Cumbres Verdes, the first Category 1 climb of the Vuelta a España. It is only 4.6 kilometers in length, but it has an average gradient of 7.8%, and that number doesn’t tell the whole story either. Things get particularly steep after the first kilometer, with a significant stretch that hits almost 13% coming between kilometers 1 and 2, and not a whole lot of respite after that, as things stay very steep all the way to the line.
The first real climbers’ day of the Vuelta, Stage 6 should see some GC action on the final slopes. The Cumbres Verdes climb is a tough enough uphill test to open up gaps between the finishers, and the top contenders for the red jersey will want to making strong opening statements on the high gradients.
The day’s breakaway will have a chance of going the distance on the profile, but they will also have a few factors weighing against them. A very long section of flat before the final climb will significantly boost the chances of the chasing pack, and the punchy GC riders will have extra motivation to reel in anyone up the road thanks to the bonus seconds on offer at the finish. If the red jersey hunters spend the final hour of the race watching each other and not injecting the pace, a strong rider off the front will have a nice opportunity for stage honors, but otherwise, a showdown among the big-name climbers should be on tap.
Though the final few kilometers are very steep, this is a short climb, and that will play into the hands of the riders who can find an extra gear for a brief charge up a high gradient. Joaquim Rodriguez will love this finish. He is on terrific form right now and with motivation through the roof, he’ll be hard to beat on this terrain. Teammate Daniel Moreno is also particularly well-suited to this challenging ascent.
Movistar’s Nairo Quintana would prefer a longer finishing climb, but he has the skillset to pull out an advantage whenever the gradient nears 10%, and with the form he showed in the Vuelta a Burgos, he will be hard to catch if he goes on the attack in the Stage 6. Like Purito, Quintana also has a particularly dangerous teammate in Alejandro Valverde, who lost a few seconds on Stage 3 and will be eager to get back onto the same time as Quintana. It won’t be easy to counter Movistar’s one-two punch.
Chris Froome showed on Stage 3 that he’s feeling strong in this Vuelta, and he knows he can’t afford to wait to gain ground on his rivals after losing some time in the opening TTT, even though this isn’t the sort of long slogging climb that one might traditionally associate with his skillset. If he is truly at his best and planning on fighting for the overall victory in this race, he will be a strong contender on this stage.
Garmin-Sharp’s Dan Martin likes the high-gradient finales and showed with a near-victory on Stage 3 that he’s on great form. With Ryder Hesjedal and Andrew Talansky both essentially out of the GC picture after being caught out in crosswinds on Stage 5, Garmin will be fully committed to Martin’s ambitions in this race.
Tinkoff-Saxo’s Alberto Contador has been downplaying his aspirations in this race, but he has not showed much weakness so far, and this will be an opportunity to see just how well he has recovered from his leg injury. Obviously, if he is in good shape, this steep summit finish suits him well. Fabio Aru is a terrific uphill charger who should like the Stage 6 profile, but form is a bit of an unknown right now. If he’s feeling strong, he’ll be dangerous. Rigoberto Uran‘s form is also a question mark, but if he’s at his best he should be able to be in the mix. Warren Barguil, Samuel Sanchez, Cadel Evans, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Wilco Kelderman, and Johan Esteban Chaves are others who could get involved for stage honors.
At this point in the race, with so many strong climbers still relatively well-placed on GC, there aren’t a whole lot of riders that stand out as strong long-range candidates on a climb like this. Julian Arredondo is one, but he has not appeared to be at full strength just yet (though if he does get out, he’ll obviously be a danger). Louis Meintjes, Adam Yates, Damiano Cunego, and Kenny Elissonde are others who might have a chance at Stage 6 if they are allowed up the road.
Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 6, so stay tuned.
The third and final Grand Tour of the 2014 season has arrived and it should be quite the event. The Vuelta a España has a reputation as an opportunity for riders who have missed out on earlier season goals to take one last shot at glory in a major stage race. With injuries derailing the plans of so many of the sport’s biggest names who had been targeting other races on the calendar in 2014, that reputation will be taken to a new level in the year’s edition of the Vuelta. The startlist is overflowing with talent, with past winners of the General, Points, and Mountain Classifications of all three Grand Tours and multiple past World Champions in attendance. It’s shaping up to be a star-studded showdown.
The Route
The parcours of the 2014 Vuelta looks to be a bit less challenging than several recent editions have been, but that may only lead to a closer GC battle and more competition for bonus seconds at stage finishes. Most of the stages likely to have major GC implications sit roughly in the middle of the three-week period. That means that those who have arrived a bit off of peak form will take every available opportunity in the opening stages to ride themselves into shape before the real mountains appear. Once they do, the GC battle will be on, and with a few consecutive days of decisive racing packed into the second week, things could start to shape up long before the final stages of the race are underway. Still, the Tour de France should serve as a reminder of just how difficult Grand Tour racing can be, even on the stages that don’t look likely to shake up the GC, and even if the leaderboard looks set by the time the third week is in full swing, there are no guarantees in this sport; the riders will have to maintain focus all the way to the finish if they want to come out on top.
The Vuelta opens with a short, flat team time trial that is unlikely to have too big an effect on the General Classification. Stage 2 shouldn’t be much more eventful for the red jersey hunters. Stages 3 through 5 have a few hills along the way or at the finish line that could make for interesting stage battles, but probably won’t affect the overall leaderboard.
Stage 6: Benalmádena › La Zubia (167.1 km) – The Alto Cumbres Verdes that closes the stage isn’t a legbreaker, but it will offer the first real battleground for the climbing specialists in this Vuelta.
Stage 6 presents the first real mountain challenge of the Vuelta, with a summit finish. A 4.6 kilometer climb at an average gradient of 7.8% won’t decide the Vuelta by any means, but it will at least be a chance to see who is on strong form in this race. Stage 7 has hills throughout but nothing that will challenge the GC men, and the breakaway artists and more punchy riders will look to pick up a victory, while Stage 8 is almost guaranteed to end in a sprint.
Stage 9, the final stage before the first rest day of the Vuelta, will offer a major mountain showdown, finishing with the double challenge of a Cat. 2 climb followed almost immediately by a Cat. 1 summit finish.
Stage 10 (ITT): Real Monasterio de Santa María de Veruela › Borja (36.7 km) – A long downhill section will favor the powerful chrono specialists and could contribute to significant gaps among the GC riders.
Following their day off, the peloton will take on a stage likely to have a major impact on the overall outcome of the Vuelta: a 36.7 kilometer time trial. After an early Cat. 3, the remainder of the parcours is downhill, which will allow the real power specialists to put their skills on display, and could lead to significant gaps on the GC leaderboard. There won’t be much time for the red jersey seekers to rest after the chrono, with another mountaintop finish waiting on Stage 11.
Stages 12 and 13 should go to those riders who have come to the Vuelta looking for stage victories, but Stage 14 kicks of a trio of tough mountain days, with a difficult parcours that includes two Category 1 climbs (include the La Camperona summit finish). Stage 15 and the challenging Lagos de Covadonga climb come next, before a brutal Stage 16 that includes four Category 1 climbs, including the arduous La Farrapona climb to the finish line, 16.5 kilometers at an average gradient of 6.2%.
After a welcome rest day, a flat Stage 17 will provide the sprinters with another shot at victory. Stage 18 ends with a Cat. 2 climb that the puncheurs will love, while the a late hill on Stage 19 could set up a showdown between fast finishers and explosive opportunists.
Stage 20: Santo Estevo de Ribas de Sil › Puerto de Ancares (185.7 km) – The challenging Puerto de Ancares climb will offer a final opportunity for the uphill specialists to put their talents on display in this Vuelta.
The Puerto de Ancares climb that closes out Stage 20 will offer a battleground for a final mountain showdown among the GC contenders. It’s a harsh 12.7 kilometer ascent that averages 8.7% and includes several long stretches with gradients well over 10%. If the Vuelta hasn’t been decided already, this will be the site of a furious uphill battle.
The final stage of the Vuelta a España is a flat, 9.7 kilometer time trial that will offer those who specialize in short chronos a chance to shine on a big stage. The overall contenders will be on their toes, but only the slightest of GC gaps will be under threat with such a short route.
The General Classification Contenders
The startlist is full of GC talent, with several riders who could conceivably win this race. Many of the biggest names come with question marks. As such, it’s hard to call any one rider the out-and-out favorite to take this Vuelta a España. Still, a few riders stand out above the competition as the most likely contenders, with two in particular in a class of their own: Chris Froome of Team Sky and Nairo Quintana of Movistar.
Froome’s all-round talent speaks for itself. The winner of the 2013 Tour de France is one of the world’s best climbers and also an elite time trialist. At his best and most motivated, he is rarely defeated in a stage race. It doesn’t seem likely motivation will be much of a problem here: having dropped out of a Tour de France in which he was the favorite for a repeat success, this is the last real opportunity for both Froome and his mighty Team Sky to get any major results out of a season they entered with high expectations. Form is the only real question mark for Froome. He was back on the bike pretty quickly after injuries forced him out of the Tour, but it’s not easy to build a season around a race in July only to switch goals and hope for peak form in August and September. On the other hand, if the last three years are any indication, perhaps the biggest predictor of success in this race is a lack of Grand Tour mileage earlier in the year: for each of the past three winners, the Vuelta was the only three-week race undertaken that season. Froome’s very early exit from the Tour could leave him fresher than many of his top rivals in this race who already have a Giro or Tour under their belts. He also has multiple Grand Tour Top 10 finisher Mikel Nieve as a strong second, along with other reliable supporters like Phil Deignan (who has had a nice year for Sky), Dario Cataldo, Peter Kennaugh, and Vasil Kiryienka.
Nairo Quintana put his uphill mastery on display in last year’s Tour de France, climbing his way to 2nd place in that race despite not even being team leader at the start. He followed up that excellent performance with a victory at the 2014 Giro d’Italia, where he was clearly the strongest rider, overcoming an early illness to win rather handily. He has made big strides a time trialist over the past season, developing into a more complete rider every day, and he showed by winning the Vuelta a Burgos that after an extended break from racing following the Giro d’Italia, form isn’t an issue. The Giro mileage is there, but Quintana has obviously had time to recover, and he’ll benefit from an always powerful Movistar lineup. Alejandro Valverde makes the start as well, and while his disappointing 4th in the Tour de France (despite the absence of Contador and Froome) would suggest that his days of challenging for Grand Tour victory are coming to a close, especially with the added fatigue of having just raced in one, he’s still a consistent performer in three-week races who seems likely to put in a Top 10 result. The ability to launch a two-pronged assault on the steep stuff makes Movistar a very dangerous team, even if Froome is at 100%.
Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez had high hopes for this season, and everything looked to be going according to plan when he won the Volta a Catalunya, but injuries sustained in a nasty crash at the Giro derailed his campaign there and knocked him out of competition for a while. He decided to use the Tour de France as an opportunity to ride back into form (it should be noted that riding one Grand Tour as preparation for another is a rather unconventional plan these days), and though he was unable to come up with any big results in that race, he showed with a podium performance in the very challenging Clasica San Sebastian that followed that he was rounding into shape. With bonus seconds likely to be of some importance in this Vuelta, this is an excellent parcours for Rodriguez, who can hunt mountain bonus seconds better than most, a trait that will help him challenge for the win in his home Grand Tour. Trusted lieutenant Daniel Moreno is here as well. He has not had as strong a year as he had in 2013 (when he was 10th in the Vuelta and racked up several victories on the season), but he did just put in a great ride at the Vuelta a Burgos, finishing only 3 seconds behind Quintana on GC. Like Rodriguez, Moreno has a lot of punch in the hunt for time bonuses, and in addition to acting as Purito’s top teammate, he could land a decent overall result himself.
The nasty tibia fracture he suffered in the tenth stage of the Tour de France puts Alberto Contador a bit further down in this preview than he typically merits in a Grand Tour pre-race discussion, but he’s stil certainly worth mentioning. At full strength, he’s unmatched on the climbs and strong against the clock, and he possesses the killer instinct to deliver when the stakes are high. Unfortunately, he’s not likely to be at full strength, as an injury like the one that forced him out of the Tour is not quickly overcome. Still, Contador was flying in the run-up to the Tour and he will be highly motivated to put whatever remains of that form to good use. He has said he is targeting stage wins in this race, but Contador isn’t the type to back down if he should find himself still in the mix for GC as the race drags on. If he does manage to recover his strength and get involved in the battle, he’ll obviously be a top conteder. That’s a big ask, and as it stands, he’s certainly not the favorite he might be without the recent injury, but he also can’t be counted out.
Rigoberto Uran of OPQS showed his top-notch climbing legs and explosiveness on the way to a 2nd overall finish in the 2013 Giro, but he reached a new level as a GC rider this year, flashing great ability against the clock. Form is a question mark, as he was a bit off the pace in the recent Tour de l’Ain, his first race back from a long post-Giro break, but he has a history of performing well even after long periods out of competition. Uran has the talent to battle it out for the podium. He has a great team backing him too, with Wout Poels, who was brilliant in support of Uran in the Giro, on the squad as well. Don’t be surprised to see Poels looking for opportunities to succeed on his own either.
Last year’s winner Chris Horner, now riding for Lampre-Merida, had another difficult start to his season after being seriously injured when hit by a car while training. He was unable to follow up his strong 2013 finish with any big results in the early part of this year, but he looked strong in the Tour de France, where he rode in support of Rui Costa while still getting back to his best. He certainly looked to be closing in on that top level with his 2nd overall in the recent Tour of Utah. He’s another year older but that doesn’t seem to make much of a difference with Horner, who proved in last year’s race that he should not be underestimated when the road goes up. Lampre has a very nice squad of support riders and potential alternatives with Przemyslaw Niemiec (fresh off a 5th overall in Poland), Damiano Cunego, and the underrated Jose Serpa.
Update: In accordance with the rules of the MPCC, of which Lampre-Merida is a member, defending champion Chris Horner has been withdrawn from the Vuelta startlist due to low cortisol levels.
Giro 3rd place finisher Fabio Aru leads a strong Astana team. He thrives in the high mountains, and although this parcours may not have the grueling climbs of the Giro, Aru has the skillset to benefit from bonus seconds as well. The biggest concern for the 24-year-old will be staying strong throughout all three weeks: he has never raced two Grand Tours in one year, so it’s unclear how his body will respond. If he can hold up over the course of the Vuelta, he’ll be a dangerous contender. Tanel Kangert and rising talent Mikel Landa will also make the start.
Garmin-Sharp has several GC options. Explosive climber Dan Martin had designs of Giro glory, but crashed out on the very first day. In fact, the list of big races over the last two seasons in which Martin has crashed or come down with illness is surprisingly long. However, Martin was always planning to ride this Vuelta, and having crashed out of the Giro before finishing a single stage, he comes into this race with the major boon of not having finished another GT so far this season. It’s a good route for him, and he showed excellent form in the recent Tour de l’Ain, so if he can stay healthy for three weeks, a strong performance could be in the cards. Garmin-Sharp also sends 2014 Giro Top 10 finisher Ryder Hesjedal, who could put in a decent ride, as well as Andrew Talansky. Talansky is supposedly riding the race in support of his teammates, having withdrawn from the Tour following several crashes, but he’s been hot this year and he’s been 7th in this race in the past, so it’s not out of the question that he puts in a GC challenge in 2014.
With fewer truly brutal climbs than typically feature in the Giro or the Tour, this is a nice parcours for Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman, a strong time trialist who also has the ability to pick up bonus seconds in group finishes. The question for Kelderman will be whether he is strong enough yet (at just 23-years-old) to ride well through the second half of a Giro-Vuelta double. He was on good form at the Tour of Utah and certainly has the skillset to battle among the Top 10. Robert Gesink is another great option for Belkin. Having missed a large portion of the season with heart problems, Gesink showed good form in Poland and, of course, he doesn’t have any Grand Tour miles in his legs yet this season. This is a nice opportunity for him to get back into the mix. Laurens Ten Dam is here as well, coming off a nice 8th overall in the Tour de France. He might still have something left in the tank to challenge for the Top 10, and at the very least he’s an excellent teammate for the mountains.
AG2R sends Carlos Betancur, who spent months out of competition after the Ardennes Classics and did not look on form in his recent run at the Vuelta a Burgos. He has a lot of ground to make up if he wants to be in the conversation, but on raw talent he’s one of the best riders in the race and is worthy of a mention. BMC sends the one-two punch of Cadel Evans and Samuel Sanchez. Both are obviously well past their primes, but on a somewhat tamer course like this, and still packing strong finishing kicks for bonus seconds, both could have a shot at good results. FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot makes the start following his stellar Tour de France, but maintaing his great form all the way through a podium performance at the Tour and into this race isn’t easy, and he has said outright that he’s hunting stage success and possibly the King of the Mountains jersey. Still, he’s worth keeping an eye on.
Giant-Shimano’s Warren Barguil made the 2013 Vuelta his coming out party with two stage wins, and now he returns with even bigger aspirations. He has not landed many big results yet this year but he was climbing well at the Tour de Pologne and he has a strong team of young, talented all-rounders (like Lawson Craddock and Chad Haga) around him. Coming into the race fresh and without any Grand Tour mileage this season, Barguil could put in a good ride. Orica-GreenEdge enters uncharted territory in this race; for once, they have a rider with some GC potential in Johan Esteban Chaves. A terrific climber, Chaves has taken stages in the Tour de Suisse and the Tour of California this year, and he has the talent to land a decent result.
Lotto Belisol appears to be backing Maxime Monfort for GC; Jurgen Van Den Broeck is on the startlist but it seems likely that he’ll be in the hunt for stages rather than mixing it up on GC. Trek has a lot of firepower in the race, and they aim to support Haimar Zubeldia as their GC rider over other talents (like strong climber Julian Arredondo) in the squad. Actually challenging for the podium may be too much to ask for Zubeldia, but he has a knack for landing Top 10 results. Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro, FDJ’s Kenny Elissonde, MTN-Qhubeka’s Sergio Pardilla and Louis Mentjes, and Caja Rural’s David Arroyo are other outsiders who will hope to be in the mix for General Classification.
The Stagehunters
The quality of riders looking for stage wins in this race is also particularly high. Nacer Bouhanni, Giro Points Classification winner and, more recently, winner of a stage at the Eneco Tour, will hope to pick up more 2014 victories in the sprints. Peter Sagan, John Degenkolb, and Michael Matthews are all in attendance as well, and they’ll look to challenge Bouhanni for the flatter bunch finishes and fight it out amongst themselves when the tougher profiles leave the heavier sprinters behind. We should be in for some great battles between the three versatile riders on the hillier stages. I like Degenkolb a lot in this race; when healthy, he’s been very fast this year, and he’ll be highly motivated after being slowed by an injury in the Tour.
Other sprinting talents making the start include Tom Boonen, Roberto Ferrari and Maximiliano Richeze, Yauheni Hutarovich, Moreno Hofland, Daniele Bennati, Gerald Ciolek, Andrea Guardini, Jens Debusschere, Fabio Felline, and Matteo Pelucchi. Philippe Gilbert will likely be in the mix on the flatter stages, and he’ll obviously be a top candidate to battle it out with the GC men for the shorter uphill finishes.
It’s worth noting that while most of the top fast men are likely to at least put up decent showings in the Points Classification, the Vuelta points jersey quite often goes to a climber thanks to the number of uphill finishes and an equally weighted points system regardless of the profile. Sagan, Matthews, Degenkolb, and Bouhanni (in that order, in my mind) all have a shot, but one will have to rise well above the others to make a legitimate run at a classification more likely to be won by the uphill specialists with the explosiveness to pick up stage wins.
Several great time trialists are in attendance hoping to pick up victories with two individual chronos on the menu. Fabian Cancellara and Tony Martin headline the list, with the extremely talented Adriano Malori also among the best riders against the clock on the startlist. In addition to the many names with good time trialing ability already mentioned in the GC section of the preview, we’ll probably also see Kristof Vandewalle and Bob Jungels (who talked to VH this week about his goals for the Vuelta), Rohan Dennis, Jesse Sergent, Manuel Quinziato, and Brett Lancaster shining in the ITTs.
Many of those strong solo artists are also likely to be protagonists for long-range success in the breakaway-friendly intermediate stages, along with versatile riders like Luis Leon Sanchez, Nathan Haas, and Adam Hansen. Julian Arredondo headlines a list of climbing specialists who are ostensibly here for mountain stage wins and should be given some freedom to get up the road once they’ve dropped from the GC leaderboard. Along with whoever among the aforementioned GC riders resorts to hunting stages after falling out of contention for the overall, Adam Yates, Alessandro Di Marchi, Amets Txurruka, and Yuri Trofimov are others who could fight it out with the red jersey hunters for stage honors in the mountains.
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General Classification
Winner: Chris Froome Podium: Nairo Quintana, Joaquim Rodriguez Other Top Contenders: Rigoberto Uran, Alejandro Valverde, Fabio Aru, Wilco Kelderman, Daniel Martin, Daniel Moreno, Alberto Contador
Points Classification
Winner: Joaquim Rodriguez
VeloHuman will be previewing every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España, with profiles, favorites, and outsiders for every day of racing. The preview of Stage 1 is already up! There will be plenty more commentary and analysis on Twitter, so be sure to follow @VeloHuman if you haven’t already.
-Dane Cash
Photos by Tom Raftery, Manuel Quiroga, and Gerben van Heijningen.
