Tag: GC

Tour de Suisse 2014 Preview

As the Criterium du Dauphine is heading towards its conclusion, the second major Tour de France tuneup race kicks off Saturday: the Tour de Suisse. Much like its French cousin, the Suisse features a diverse array of challenges, with time trials, sprinters’ days, hilly stages, and mountaintop finishes. The good mix of profiles draws an impressive startlist of riders, many of whom are using the nine-day event to perfect their form leading into July’s main event.

While the biggest GC names of the Tour de France have preferred to use the Dauphine as their warmup of choice in recent years, the Suisse has drawn some major protagonists as well. Current rainbow jersey wearer Rui Costa is the defending champion; he followed up on his 2013 Suisse with a pair of stage wins in the Tour. Meanwhile, Peter Sagan has won the Points Classification of the Tour de Suisse prior to both of his Green Jerseys in the Tour de France. Costa and Sagan are on a long list of returning riders likely to feature again. As a note: most of the big names on the provisional startlist look set to go, but the official startlist is not completely finalized at this point, so keep an eye out for late additions and subtractions.

The Route

The 78th Tour de Suisse begins with a 9.4 kilometer time trial. While short, it involves a tough climb and a tricky descent, so it’s not going to be as simple or as speedy as last year’s mostly flat out-and-back prologue. Stage 2 has some tough climbs (two HC-rated mountains and then a Cat. 2) in the middle of the day, followed by a late Category 2, but a downhill and then flat final 21 kilometers could limit GC action. The third stage has some bumps along the way and an uncategorized uphill finish. Stage 4 and Stage 5 are mostly flat days likely for the sprinters.

Stage 9: Martigny › Saas-Fee (156.5 km) – A challenging climb closes out the final stage of the Tour de Suisse, ensuring that the GC battle will go all the way down to the wire.

Stage 6 has a late climb that could inspire punchy riders to make moves. A 24.7 kilometer time trial on Stage 7 will have major GC implications. It does have a few bumps to offer some consolation to the pure climbers, but it’s a far cry from the hill climb chrono that finished the 2013 TdS. The uphill specialists will look forward to the following two days. A Hors Categorie ascent to Verbier closes out Stage 8. Stage 9 will guarantee an open fight for GC to the final meters of the Tour de Suisse: it’s a short one at 156.5 km, but the profile will challenge the peloton with a Cat. 1, a Cat. 2, another Cat. 1, and then an HC-rated summit finish where the Tour de Suisse will crown its overall victor.

The General Classification Contenders

Lampre’s Rui Costa has won the past two editions of the Tour de Suisse. This is a race that he knows how to win, and a stage on which he loves to shine. His very versatile array of skills (climbing legs, a fair bit of punch, and an underrated time trial) are well-suited to varied profiles of the weeklong event. He showed excellent form this year in Switzerland’s other major stage race, the Tour de Romandie, where he was 3rd behind Chris Froome and Simon Spilak. Riding as his team’s main option in the upcoming Tour de France for the first time, Costa will be eager to put his talents on display. He will also be eager to pick up his first win in the rainbow jersey, and this may be his best chance all year.

Belkin’s Bauke Mollema was runner-up and a stage winner in 2013 and he will be hunting continued success this year. He, too, sports a very strong combination of talents that will keep him comfortable in both the hills and the high mountains of the race. Belkin sends an excellent squad to support his amibitions, with climbing expert Laurens Ten Dam to play the role of second. Mollema has all the tools to contend for the overall victory in the 2014 Tour de Suisse.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Roman Kreuziger rounded out the 2013 podium (and he actually won this race back in 2008) and he will again have a shot at a good result this year. Kreuziger is Alberto Contador’s top lieutenant in the Tour de France, but at the TdS he has the chance to ride for his own ambitions, and he will be an excellent bet to achieve his goals, given his well-rounded skillset. Kreuziger had a hot start to the year but has not raced in over a month; however, with Tinkoff-Saxo’s main target approaching, he should be getting back up to top form now.

Sky’s Bradley Wiggins will certainly bring excitement to the race, especially coming off a Tour of California victory, but it’s hard to know what to expect from him. He worked himself down to a GC-oriented weight for his AToC bid, but now that he does not plan on riding in La Grand Boucle, he may refocus his approach to prep himself for time trialing and track goals to come. Obviously, with the motivation and focus, Wiggins is a major contender, but there are enough question marks that I don’t see him as the top favorite he is capable of being. Teammate Dario Cataldo couldn’t quite come away with a victory in the Giro d’Italia but he looked great throughout that race and could feature as a fringe contender with two time trials on the route. It is worth noting that Sky is also sending Sergio Henao to the Tour de Suisse, his first race since an extended break from competition.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot should be able to land himself another good result (he was 4th last year). He has shown an improved time trial this year, outperforming expectations in Pais Vasco and Romandie, and the ability to limit his losses in a discipline that troubled him in the past will be critical with this route. IAM Cycling’s Mathias Frank (5th in 2013) is another rider I expect to see at the very top. He, too, has displayed a more balanced approach in 2014, and he has a knack for success in races that take place in his home nation. He led the 2013 Tour de Suisse into the final day, but ultimately fell several placings with a lackluster performance on the last stage, a hill climb ITT. With that on his mind, and now the sole leader on a new team, Frank is likely to be a major protagonist.

BMC’s Cadel Evans and AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo are both only a few days removed from the Giro d’Italia. Wilco Kelderman has shown in the Dauphine that it’s possible to carry that Grand Tour form even into the middle of June, but it won’t be easy. Evans was fading as the Giro drew to a close, so it will be a big ask for him to continue to perform at a high level here. Pozzovivo battled illness in the Giro’s final week, but he maintained his strong performance through the last days of the race, and he may have more in the tank. Christophe Riblon makes for another excellent option for AG2R. The climbing expert (and Alpe d’Huez winner) showed an improved time trial in last year’s Tour de Pologne, and he’ll be motivated to perform leading into the Tour de France. Carlos Betancur was supposed to ride this race, but recent news suggests that he is skipping the Suisse, and possibly even the Tour de France.

Movistar’s Ion Izagirre is a vastly underrated GC performer who has flashed strong chrono chops to complement his excellent climbing skills recently. Rarely given the opportunity to ride for his own ambitions, he will have a nice shot at success here. Eros Cappechi is one of a number of strong teammates. Garmin is another very strong all-round squad led by riders who often play lieutenant roles. Rohan Dennis was 2nd only to Bradley Wiggins in the Tour of California. His time trialing prowess is well-known, but he has worked to better himself on the slopes in 2014 and it has really paid off. Teammates Janier Acevedo is a pure climber who will look to light up the late mountain stages, and Tom Danielson may feature in a similar role.

Giant-Shimano’s trio of Warren Barguil, Lawson Craddock, and Tom Dumoulin pack a particularly strong punch. Barguil has the climbing saavy to survive the late climbs. Craddock and Dumoulin are both excellent all-rounders who will look to jump to an early advantage in the time trial. Tony Martin of OPQS will likely be well-placed after that opening chrono as well, and he has decent climbing legs to boot. It wouldn’t be particularly surprising to see him hunting a GC result. Trek’s Schleck brother duo will hope to pick up a decent result; Frank has had something of a resurgence this year. Lotto Belisol’s Maxime Monfort, strong in the time trial, could put up a nice performance. MTN-Qhubeka’s Louis Meintjes is a fast-rising, versatile rider who is just coming into his own. His team may surprise some—they have a lot of talent for a variety of scenarios, and Meintjes can hang with the big guns when the road goes up (he was 5th at the Giro del Trentino in April). Orica-GreenEdge’s Johan Chaves is another outsider with a chance for success: he delivered a beautiful Tour of California stage win last month and he will look to make a late move up the GC leaderboard on the HC-rated climbs of the last two stages.

The Stagehunters

A number of elite stagehungers make the start from Bellinzona. Peter Sagan was brilliant in the 2013 edition, shocking everyone by nabbing a victory after surviving a particularly mountainous Stage 3 that even dropped most of the GC contenders, and he will try to defend his Points title in 2014. It won’t be easy. Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb, supported by excellent-sprinter-in-his-own-right Luka Mezgec, is on fire in 2014 and has shown an ability to handle some of the tougher peloton-whittling climbs that Sagan also prefers.

Unfortunately for both of them, they’ll have to contend with Mark Cavendish and his elite OPQS leadout squad on the flatter days. Tom Boonen is here for Omega Pharma as well: they mean business in this race. Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff is another sprinter hoping to make an impression, and for once, he’ll actually have an entire team dedicated to his ambitions in a stage race. He took a stage last year and will be hungry for more. Sky’s Ben Swift gets another chance to shine this season, and he look for the harder days as opportunities to win from a reduced bunch. Lampre’s Sacha Modolo got off to a hot start in 2014 and could find himself returning to success here. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard is a brilliant young talent who could feature. MTN-Qhubeka’s Gerald Ciolek, Movistar’s JJ Rojas and JJ Lobato, Astana’s Andrea Guardini, Trek’s Danny van Poppel, AG2R’s Davide Appollonio, OGE’s Matt Goss, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s in-form Matti Breschel and Michael Morkov are other likely sprint protagonists.

For the very hilly days, look out for Garmin’s Tom Jelte-Slagter, Lotto’s Jelle Vanendert, and OGE’s Michael Albasini, who lit up the Tour de Romandie, to try to take on the GC riders for stage supremacy. Don’t be surprised to see classics powerhouses like Belkin’s Sep Vanmarcke, OPQS’s Niki Terpstra and Stijn Vandenbergh, and Trek’s Stijn Devolder and, of course, Fabian Cancellara looking for long distance victories either. Cancellara will also headline (along with Bradley Wiggins and Tony Martin) an elite field of chrono riders for the race’s two stages against the clock. Movistar’s Alex Dowsett and AG2R’s Patrick Gretsch are specialists who will hope to contend with that trio, as well as a number of other aforementioned strong ITT riders, for prestigious wins against elite competition.

VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites

Winner: Rui Costa
Podium: Bauke Mollema, Roman Kreuziger
Other Top Contenders: Thibaut Pinot, Mathias Frank, Ion Izagirre, Bradley Wiggins, Rohan Dennis, Domenico Pozzovivo, Laurens Ten Dam

I will not be doing daily stage previews here, but follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for stage picks and commentary. And check back soon for some very exciting things to come: Q&As with some of the sport’s up-and-coming young stars and plenty of Tour de France coverage are right around the corner.

-Dane Cash

Photos by F. Gopp and youkeys.

June 12, 2014
Criterium du Dauphine 2014 Preview

As one Grand Tour ends, the run-up to another begins. The Critérium du Dauphiné (I’m hereafter dropping the accents for various Internet-friendly reasons) is one of the most important stage races of the year. It is one of two major tuneup events for July’s Tour de France (the other being the Tour de Suisse). The balanced route of the Dauphine, which includes a time trial, flat stages, hilly stages, and some difficult mountains, offers excellent preparation for the Tour. Many of the likely stars of La Grande Boucle make the start to face off against their major rivals. Bradley Wiggins won in 2012 and Chris Froome was winner in 2013; both went on to win the Tour. With such an elite field and over sixty years of history, the Dauphine is a major event in its own right.

A quick note before I dive in: I’m not previewing individual stages, but I’ll be tweeting stage picks and live analysis, so remember to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter.

The Route

The 2014 edition of the Criterium du Dauphine wastes no time in kicking off the GC competition, beginning with a 10.4 kilometer individual time trial. It’s a short test but it includes a Category 4 climb (800 meters at 5.5%). It’s also somewhat technical, its route meandering through winding roads along the banks of the Saône. The distance won’t open up any massive gaps, but it will establish a small early advantage for some GC riders.

Stage 2: Tarare › Pays d’Olliergues-Col du Béal (156 km) – Things turn mountainous quickly with an HC-rated climb to close out the second stage.

Stage 2 guarantees that none of those riders who got out to an early lead on Day 1 can rest on their laurels: the 156 kilometer journey sets out from Tarare and crests five categorized climbs before one final ascent to the finish atop the Hors Categorie Col du Beal. 13.6 km at 6.6%, it’s not the hardest climb in the world but it’s certain to weed out pretenders before the race even enters its third day.

Stages 3 has some bumps, but with a long flat run in to the finish, it is unlikely to shake up the General Classification. Stage 4 rides on many of the same roads as Stage 16 of last year’s Tour de France (won from the break by Rui Costa). There is a challenging climb crested a little over 10km from the finish that might see GC attacks go clear.

Stage 5 is another hilly affair with a pair of Category 2 ascents in the final 50 km. Stage 6 is mostly flat, but it gets bumpy towards the end of the day, with a vicious little climb in the final few kilometers that could prove challenging for the sprinters.

Stage 7: Ville-la-Grand › Finhaut-Emosson (160 km) – There is nowhere to hide on the final climb of the seventh stage, which has sections above 10%.

Stage 7 will pack quite a punch, challenging the riders with the Hors Categorie Col de la Forclaz (12.6 km at an 8.2% average) crested with 18 km to go, and then, after a short descent, another HC-rated climb to finish the day, 10.2 km at an 8% average, with a few extremely steep sections.

Things do not get much easier for Stage 8, which tosses in a pair of Cat. 1s to close out the day, and the Dauphine as a whole. The difficult conclusion ensures that nothing will be decided on GC until the very end of the race.

The overall route does not include any truly grueling ascents, but it is quite hilly, and the many days of ups and downs will certainly wear on the peloton, putting the climbers in the spotlight. Bonus seconds of 10-6-4 at the line will benefit the faster finishers. This year’s race includes far fewer time trial kilometers than recent editions have, which is likely to open things up a bit after recent domination from the chrono-loving Team Sky.

The General Classification Contenders

The startlist is stacked with talent (and it is important to note that it isn’t completely settled as of this writing), but there are two clear favorites for the overall victory. The first is Sky’s Chris Froome. Even with reduced time trial mileage, Froome is likely to excel in this race, as it is a very important part of his and his team’s program. After injury derailed the first few European races of his season, Froome got back on track in a major way at the Tour de Romandie, where he outclimbed almost everyone else and then won the time trial and with it, the General Classification.

Chris Froome looks to be back in top shape after struggling with injury early in 2014.

The importance of this race to Froome’s 2014 campaign is obvious given the talent his team is sending to back his efforts: constant lieutenant Richie Porte, runner-up in last year’s race, will make the start, an elite talent at all levels who makes a viable second should his team leader suffer misfortune. Porte has had a difficult year as well, but on talent alone he has to be considered a secondary contender for the overall. Geraint Thomas is another all-round talent likely to contribute in a big way (also, watch out for him in the opening ITT). David Lopez and Mikel Nieve are two of Sky’s top mountain domestiques. The British squad is fully committed to winning the Dauphine for the fourth straight time as part of a strong statement in the run-up to Froome’s Tour defense, and with the star finally back from his ailments, it’s hard to see past Sky here.

Alberto Contador of Tinkoff-Saxo is the rider most likely to challenge the Sky juggernaut. Contador has put in some of the finest racing of his life in 2014, winning Tirreno-Adriatico and Pais Vasco and coming in 2nd in Catalunya, climbing at an otherworldly level in every mountain stage. He will have several opportunities to attack on this climber-centric parcours. Few will be able to match him if he has maintained the form he showed at the beginning of the year, though he has not raced for two months, making that a bit of a question mark. Further, in the past, Contador has not focused on this race as heavily as Sky has, and that may be the case again this year; the squad Tinkoff-Saxo sends to support him is not nearly as strong as Chris Froome’s. Chief lieutenant Roman Kreuziger, for instance, will be absent, taking on the Tour de Suisse instead. At Contador’s best and most focused, that might not matter (especially with the very steep Stage 7 on the program), but there are enough concerns that Contador is the second of my two favorites rather than the first.

Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali is third favorite with the bookmakers in this race (just as he is in the upcoming Tour de France), but he enters the Dauphine with a number of question marks. Obviously the aggressive winner of the 2013 Giro (and runner-up of the 2013 Vuelta) is a top climber who will love the profile. He also has an excellent supporting cast. However, he has not had the 2014 that he would have hoped for, starting out very slowly and only really showing flashes of his form in the Tour de Romandie, where he still settled for 5th despite being one of the major favorites. If he has managed to build on his form and has reached that top level he is capable of, he will challenge for the victory, but that is not a given. Astana has the excellent all-rounder Jakob Fuglsang to help in the mountains or to act as an alternative if necessary. He has a knack for finding himself Top 10s even when riding for Nibali.

Katusha’s Simon Spilak has had a very impressive 2014. Always a strong climber, the 27-year-old is coming into his own as a featured rider for his team, soaring to new heights on the slopes but also sporting an improved time trial. He will be the guy for Katusha at the Tour de France, making this an important opportunity for him to make a statement. With the form that won him a stage and 2nd overall in Romandie, Spilak (something of a specialist in these one-week races) is primed to challenge for the victory against the very biggest names in the sport. He’ll also have last year’s 3rd place finisher Daniel Moreno on his side. Though Moreno has just finished a grueling Grand Tour, he can’t be counted out either: Katusha needs to find some results after Purito’s rough exit from the Giro.

Tejay van Garderen was having a very strong 2014 (with a 2nd in the Tour of Oman behind Chris Froome and a stage victory and 3rd overall in Catalunya among his results) before abandoning the Tour de Romandie following a crash. He returned to the USA to recover and is now back in Europe prepping for the Tour, where he will be BMC’s sole leader for the first time. The TvG of years past may have been more of a time trial specialist, which would at first glance make this a less favorable Dauphine than he’s used to, but he was climbing at an elite level early in the year, suggesting a refocused approach. If he’s recovered completely from his crash, he should contend here, especially given recent statements that suggest he is taking this race very seriously.

Fellow American Andrew Talansky has had an okay 2014. He landed in the Top 10 in Catalunya and looked good in Romandie until a dropped chain on a tough climb ruined his chances for a strong result. Like van Garderen, Talansky seems to have focused on improving his climbing this year (possibly even at the expense of his top-notch time trial) which will be crucial in this Dauphine. He tends to perform well in short stage races, even against top talent, and he’ll have recent Giro Top 10 finisher Ryder Hesjedal for support.

AG2R sends a powerful 1-2 punch with Jean-Christophe Peraud and Romain Bardet. Peraud was excellent in the spring, landing a string of great results capped off by a Criterium International victory. He cooled off at Romandie but with some time to return to form he should be able to play a role here. Teammate Romain Bardet is a sharp climbing with an aggressive streak. He’s looked good this year and, unlike many of the other contenders, he won’t be coming in cold, as he has just completed the Bayern Rundfahrt. The strong AG2R duo should be able to land at least one rider in the Top 10.

OPQS wunderkind Michal Kwiatkowski returns to racing after some time off. As usual, it’s hard to know what to expect. He is one of the most versatile riders in the sport and he does not have an off-switch, so it seems likely that he’ll be going 100% on every stage, but the mountains will be a challenge. He will be one of the top contenders for the opening ITT, and bonus seconds favor his fast finish, so he will at least be in the conversation. Jan Bakelants is another all-round talent who could decide to make a bid for the overall.

Movistar’s Beñat Intxausti gets a rare opportunity to ride for his own ambitions, as Tour leader Alejandro Valverde is riding the Route de Sud instead. When given these chances, Intxausti does not usually disappoint, and he was one of the strongest on the slopes in the Tour de Romandie. Igor Anton and John Gadret will offer more options on the climbs. NetApp-Endura’s Leopold Konig has struggled with a knee injury in 2014, but he returned to racing at Bayern Rundfahrt and looked strong there. At his best, he’s a top climber who shouldn’t be underestimated. Maintaining a high level of form for so long is a lot to ask of Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman but he has been nothing if not surprising in 2014, and bonus seconds favor his very fast finish. Lampre’s Damiano Cunego also has some Giro mileage in his legs, but like Kelderman, he’ll enjoy the chance to fight for bonus seconds. OGE’s young Adam Yates will hope to continue his excellent year against this top competition. Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler has not produced the sort of results he tends to aim for, but it’s a good route for him. Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck finally returns to racing. It’s been a very rough year for the Belgian, who has been bothered by a knee injury, but this is a very important race for him to prove that he belongs in Lotto’s Tour squad. Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro and Rein Taaramae and Trek’s duo of veteran Haimar Zubeldia and up-and-comer Bob Jungels are other outsiders.

The Stagehunters

While the Tour’s biggest GC names are making the Dauphine start in preparation for July’s big race, many of the top sprinters are conspicuously absent. The parcours may have something to do with it, as there aren’t a lot of sprinting opportunities here. Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo, coming off his strong Giro, and FDJ’s Arnaud Demare, who has racked up quite a collection of wins this year, headline the list. Both excel on similar terrain, so it will be an interesting battle between the two in the flat finishes. OPQS’s Gianni Meersman, BMC’s Thor Hushovd, OGE’s Leigh Howard, and Giant-Shimano’s Reinardt Janse van Rensburg will hope to challenge them.

The list of versatile, quick finisher types who thrive on the hilly profiles is impressive. OGE’s Simon Gerrans and Daryl Impey, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, Lampre’s Filippo Pozzato, Lotto’s Tony Gallopin, Europcar’s Cyril Gautier, BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet, and OPQS’s Zdenek Stybar could battle with some of the fast-finishing GC riders (Michael Kwiatkowski especially) for the intermediate days, though they’ll have to keep an eye on solo artists like Trek’s Jens Voigt, Astana’s Lieuwe Westra, Belkin’s Lars Boom, IAM’s Sylvain Chavanel, and Garmin’s Ramunas Navardauskas.

VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites

Winner: Chris Froome
Podium: Alberto Contador, Simon Spilak
Other Top Contenders: Vincenzo Nibali, Tejay van Garderen, Andrew Talansky, Beñat Intxausti, Romain Bardet, Richie Porte, Jakob Fuglsang

I won’t be previewing individual stages, but as usual I’ll have plenty of picks and analysis at the still relatively new @VeloHuman on Twitter! Also, be sure to come back soon, as there are plenty of big things coming at VeloHuman: previews of the Tour de Suisse and every stage of the Tour de France, as well as interviews with some fast-rising young pros! Stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

Photos by Georges Menager.

June 6, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 20 Preview

Stage 20: Maniago > Monte Zoncolan – 167 km

After the Monte Grappa ITT that solidified Nairo Quintana’s hold on the pink jersey, only one GC-relevant stage remains in the 2014 Giro d’Italia. By this point, we’ve seen who is climbing on top form and who is struggling, but the race isn’t over just yet; everyone is vulnerable to a bad day here and there, and Stage 20 is not going to be forgiving.

The penultimate stage of the Giro is 167 kilometers in length. The first half is mostly flat, but then it starts to steadily rise upward into the Passo del Pura, a Category 1, 11.3 kilometer climb with an average gradient of 7.7%. Next comes the Category 2 Sella Razzo, 15.9 km at 5.2%. From there it’s a fast descent to the final mountain challenge of the 2014 Giro d’Italia: Monte Zoncolan.

The Giro d’Italia is full of brutal climbs, but the Monte Zoncolan is a different sort of challenge. It’s less than half the length of the Stelvio or the Val Martello, and does not reach the same dizzying heights. What makes the Zoncolan so vicious is its exceptional steepness. For 10.1 kilometers, the riders must brave an average gradient of 11.9%, and the average does not even tell the full story. The midsection of the ascent jumps up over 15% for a few kilometers, with sections in the 20% range. At gradients this extreme, there is simply nowhere to hide. Even a strong team cannot offer much help; there is not much benefit to be gained from sitting on a lieutenant’s wheel when everyone is going up this slowly.

As the last opportunity for the GC contenders to make any sort of moves up the leaderboard, Stage 20 will likely see the sort of fireworks from the big guns that will put any morning breakaway under pressure. Still, riders could decide to save up for the final push up the Zoncolan, allowing opportunists to get away on the earlier slopes, making it at least a possibility that a long distance attacker could take the day.

I think it is slightly more likely that the battle for stage honors comes down to the GC men and those who decide to stick with them, so I’ll name the favorites among the overall leaders first. Heavier diesel engines that prefer climb with steady teammate support are not going to enjoy this gradient. This stage is going to go to an ultra-lightweight, uphill charger. Nairo Quintana does not need to do anything else to prove that he’s the best climber in the race, so he is the most obvious candidate for the title of “favorite.” His performance in the Monte Grappa ITT was simply amazing, and the wicked gradients of Monte Zoncolan should be yet another perfect setting for the pink jersey wearer to put his talents on display.

Fabio Aru has shown on multiple occasions that he deserves to be considered the second best climber in the race. He was stellar in the Monte Grappa time trial, behind only Quintana, and he’s already taken a stage in this race. What’s more, he’ll be extra motivated knowing that 2nd overall on GC is within his grasp. He’s going to be on the lookout for the right opportunity to make a move on this climb, and there aren’t many riders who will be able to catch him.

Battling illness, Domenico Pozzovivo has not been at his best in this Giro. This would have been an excellent stage for his talents, but it’s hard to tip him as a favorite over Quintana or Aru right now. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland has an outside shot here but he is a marked man now that he’s in the Top 5 on GC, and he won’t be allowed to get up the road without a fight. Rigoberto Uran should be able to survive without huge time gaps but winning on these gradients seems unlikely; he’ll be more focused on protecting his 2nd overall on GC from Fabio Aru. Rafal Majka‘s podium hopes have been hit hard by stomach issues, and this is an unforgiving climb that could see him continue to struggle unless he recovers overnight. Cadel Evans, Wilco Kelderman, and Ryder Hesjedal could find themselves holding on for dear life.

I have a few favorites among the non-GC riders as well, climbers who could be allowed to get up the road, either in the day’s breakaway or with a late attack from the bunch on Monte Zoncolan. Team Colombia’s Fabio Duarte is, in my opinion, the member of this group with the best chances. He’s now a four-time 2nd place stage finisher in the Giro d’Italia, clearly capable of mixing it up with the best, but always just a hair shy of success. Unlike most of the other top climbers in the race, he did not expend a lot of energy in the Stage 19 time trial. He’ll be very motivated to pick up that elusive win here on the last summit finish of the race. Trek’s Julian Arredondo now has his stage win, and his KOM jersey is practically in the bag, but he could look for more glory on the famous Monte Zoncolan. Franco Pellizotti rode very well up the Monte Grappa and was also strong from the breakaway on the stage prior, suggesting excellent form at the moment. Androni Giacotolli is winless in this Giro d’Italia, and Pellizotti is their best chance at coming away from the race with a result. Katusha’s Daniel Moreno is another very strong climber on a team that needs to get something out of this Giro. Sky’ s Dario Cataldo and the very surprising Sebastian Henao and Neri Sottoli’s Edoardo Zardini also fit this description.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Fabio Aru | 3. Fabio Duarte

Check back for the preview of the last stage of the 2014 Giro d’Italia after the Stage 20 finale atop Monte Zoncalan. Also, remember to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

With the Giro coming to a close this weekend, now seems like a good time to point out that VeloHuman will be previewing the Criterium du Dauphine, the Tour de Suisse, and, of course, every stage of the Tour de France, so make sure you come back soon!

May 30, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 19 Preview

Stage 19 (ITT): Bassano del Grappa > Cima Grappa (Crespano del Grappa) – 26.8 km

It isn’t really a surprise that most of the maglia rosa hunters took a measured approach to Stage 18 (which went to Julian Arredondo from the breakaway) with something as important as Friday’s ITT on the horizon. Only three stages remain in this Giro d’Italia, and only two of them are likely to have any effect on the overall outcome: it’s all down to the wire in the first Grand Tour of the year, and Stage 19 will play a huge part in the final GC standings.

The 26.8 kilometer individual time trial that awaits is not your average chrono. It is dominated by a Category 1 climb that kicks off around 7.5 kilometers into the stage. Hill climb TTs are not uncommon, but ones that combine gradients this high with such grueling length are rare: the Monte Grappa climb is a beast, 19.3 kilometers long at an average of 8%, with a few very steep sections near the top, including one that touches 14%. It’s about as long and, on average, about as steep as the Montecampione climb that launched Fabio Aru to victory in the Giro’s fifteenth stage. Unlike the summit finishes that have preceded it, however, this race against the clock won’t allow riders to bunch up and ride together along the lower slopes, conserving energy for late attacks. Each rider must face this challenge on his own.

This is a mountain test that will reward the best climbers in the race, especially those who combine lightweight frames with good endurance. Most of the riders generally considered time trialing specialists will not have a chance; the GC men are the likeliest contenders. Nairo Quintana is the heavy favorite. He’s the best climber here, a featherlight who excels at going uphill all by himself for extended periods of time. He’s good enough in a standard time trial, but on a stage like this, he is going to excel. Anything less than a win on Stage 19 will be a disappointment for the Movistar rider.

Rigoberto Uran dominated the Giro’s first time trial, but this will be a very different test. He’s been climbing well throughout the race and he obviously has the engine to produce a high wattage for quite a while. I imagine that he’ll be able to strengthen his hold on a podium position with this ride, but picking up time on Quintana will be a big ask.

Domenico Pozzovivo is my third favorite. Illness has slowed him down late in this race, which is unfortunate, because he had planned to be more aggressive in this last week. Still, he’s looked good in the past two tough mountain finishes, and he’s shown off some seriously improved chrono chops recently. He was decent in the first ITT of the race, but a hill climb like this suits him very well.

I expect success from Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka in Stage 19. He was just a hair better than Uran in the mountain ITT in last year’s Giro d’Italia, and he’s extremely motivated to fight for the podium. I’m not sure if the vicious gradients of the Monte Zoncolan will suit him compared to his rivals, so this could be his best shot.

Wilco Kelderman is a stronger time trialist than most of his GC rivals on a flatter course, but that advantage will fade on these slopes; obviously he’s still an excellent climber, so a strong result is likely, but in terms of gaining time on GC I think he’d prefer a profile that doesn’t suit the other contenders as well. Fellow 23-year-old Fabio Aru, on the other hand, may be something of an unknown in the time trial, but if there were ever an ITT for the climbing star to shine in, this is it. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is climbing wonderfully, but his affinity for uphill attacks does not necessarily translate that well in a chrono; he has not excelled in time trials, even in the hillier ones, in his career. BMC’s Cadel Evans is fading fast as the Giro gets harder and harder and I think he will struggle to limit his losses here. Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal lost some time in Stage 18 and will be hoping for a rebound. Trek’s Robert Kiserlovski does not have a good track record in the ITT but he’s on very strong form at the moment and this will be an excellent opportunity for the climber to get a rare decent result against the clock.

Sky’s Dario Cataldo, the OPQS trio of Thomas de Gendt, Wouter Poels, and the very surprising Gianluca Brambilla, Androni’s Franco Pellizotti, the Tinkoff-Saxo pair of Nicolas Roche and Michael Rogers, and Trek’s Julian Arredondo (there are KOM points up for grabs) are probably the best non-GC candidates for stage success here but it would be a pretty big surprise to see anyone who isn’t hunting the maglia rosa take the day.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Rigoberto Uran | 3. Domenico Pozzovivo

Saturday’s finish atop Monte Zoncolan will be a thriller, so check back for the preview after the last rider crosses the line in the Stage 18 ITT. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

-Dane Cash

May 29, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 18 Preview

Stage 18: Belluno > Rif. Panarotta (Valsugana) – 171 km

Culminating with the Category 1 Rifugio Panarotta climb, the Giro’s eighteenth stage is sure to offer fireworks. However, with an all-important uphill time trial on the horizon followed by the nasty Monte Zoncolan the day after, the GC contenders may decide to temper their efforts on Stage 18, which could open things up to a breakaway for the second day in a row (Stefano Pirazzi got into the day’s big move on Stage 17 and ultimately took the win). Once again, it wouldn’t make sense to call any one rider the singular favorite, but several riders do deserve to be considered contenders.

The profile is a mountainous one, with the Passo San Pellegrino as the first categorized climb on the menu. It’s a Cat. 1, 18.5 kilometers at an average of 6.2%. While it officially starts some 36 km into the race, by that point the road has already been going uphill, albeit gently, for about 30 kilometers! In other words, the first hour and a half of racing will take a lot out of the riders. From the top of the climb, it’s a descent followed by some ups and downs into the short but steep Passo del Redebus climb. Then comes a long descent and a flat section before the finale, a 15.9 kilometer, 7.9% average gradient ascent to the Rifugio Panarotta.

As difficult as the day looks, Stage 19’s time trial and Stage 20’s climax atop Monte Zoncolan finish may prove more decisive for GC. That could see the main maglia rosa contenders trying to keep their powder dry. On the other hand, Nairo Quintana has a significant GC lead, and his rivals know that their time is running out. Some of them are also probably not likely to fancy their chances against the clock. If they decide to use Stage 18 as an opportunity to take back time, anyone up the road will struggle to maintain an advantage on the final climb; it’s yet another day that, to me, is a tossup to go to the break or to the GC riders.

As the best climber in the race, Nairo Quintana is the first favorite among the overall contenders. As I like to point out in these breakaway-friendly scenarios, I’m not sure I’d bet on him against the field, but given the uncertainty that comes with trying to predict who will make the breakaway, let alone survive out front, his chances are at least as good as any other one rider in the race. His team can drive a very hard pace on the ascents, and even though he is now in the leader’s jersey, I don’t think he will just sit around and let attackers go by him on the final climb. I wouldn’t be surprised if he is driven to extend his lead to quiet critics of his unpopular Stelvio descent.

Astana’s Fabio Aru has had an amazing Giro d’Italia, but with a time trial approaching, he may feel the pressure to make an attack on this stage, and he’s looked strong enough to be a real contender for a victory. Nobody could match him on the Montecampione ascent, and he hasn’t shown any signs of fading. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland could have similar motivation. Time trialing has never been a strong suit. However, after two weeks of being given a lot of a leeway to make attacks due to his relatively non-threatening GC position, Rolland is now a marked man. It will be interesting to see how he responds, and whether he’s able to ride with the big favorites now that he won’t find it as easy to escape from long distance.

At 1:41 down, Rigoberto Uran knows he needs to act, so he could try to put Quintana under pressure here. Domenico Pozzovivo is even further down, making an attack likely. Young guns Rafal Majka and Wilco Kelderman have not been afraid to try late moves when they’ve seen openings. Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal made huge gains in GC and looked excellent on Stage 16 but, like Rolland, he’ll now find that his rivals won’t give him the same kind of freedom that he’s had up till now. BMC’s Cadel Evans has been losing time in the mountains and he will have his work cut out for him holding onto the final podium spot—this is a steep final ascent.

Should the maglia rosa hunters take a reserved approach, the morning breakaway could stick. A number of strong climbers could be weighing their chances in either scenario. He has not featured as prominently lately as he did in the first several stages, but Trek’s Julian Arredondo cannot sit idle here. There are too many KOM points on offer for him to miss the breakaway. If he can get into the day’s move, he will be a strong contender for stage honors. His countryman Fabio Duarte was 2nd behind Fabio Aru on the Montecampione climb. If he makes the break, he probably won’t waste his energy trying to pick up early mountain points, and that could leave him better prepared for the finale. Team Colombia squadmates Robinson Chalapud and Jarlinson Pantano are further strong options. Katusha’s Daniel Moreno looked very strong on Stage 15 and is running out of chances to get something positive out of this race, so he could try to strike here. Androni Giacotolli’s Franco Pellizotti is in a similar boat.

Other potential long-distance candidates include Sky’s Dario Cataldo and Sebastian Henao, Astana’s Mikel Landa, Lampre’s Przemyslaw Niemiec and Damiano Cunego, FDJ’s Alexandre Geniez, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche, and Neri Sottoli’s Matteo Rabottini.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Fabio Aru | 3. Fabio Duarte

Friday’s time trial will have major GC implications, so be on the lookout for the preview after the conclusion of Stage 18. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

-Dane Cash

May 28, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 16 Preview

Stage 16: Ponte di Legno > Val Martello/Martelltal – 139 km

The peloton will be glad to have enjoyed a rest day before the brutal climbing challenge that awaits on Stage 16. Stage 15, which saw Fabio Aru take a victory and Nairo Quintana take some valuable time on GC, provided a great look at the uphill form of the big names in this race, but trips up the Passo Gavia, the Stelvio, and the Val Martello climbs could rewrite the script.

Unfortunately, snow in the high mountains has opened the door for the possibility of an alternate route that would skip the first two climbs and replace them with a different pair of ascents before the finale. Race organizers will assess the weather situation on the morning of the stage. At the moment, however, RCS Sport is planning to go ahead with the original route, so this preview is going ahead with it as well.

139 kilometers make this the second shortest non-TT stage in the Giro d’Italia, but that won’t be much consolation for the riders. Very few of those kilometers don’t involve grueling ascending or nervous descending. The peloton will enjoy about 5 downhill kilometers to start the day before they take on the Passo Gavia climb, 16.5 km at 8%. From Cat. 1 summit, it’s a technical and rough descent that runs to the foot of the Stelvio ascent, 21.7 kilometers at an average of 7.1%. The roads are narrow and it’s quite cold towards the top. Another tricky descent follows, before the road flattens out a bit with around 35 kilometers remaining. The final climb is an irregular 22.4 kilometer journey that averages 6.4%, but it includes various sections of 10% or more, including one just before the finish line.

This stage is a prime target for anyone hunting the King of the Mountains jersey. The top of the Stelvio, as the highest point in the Giro (the “Cima Coppi”), offers more KOM points than any other climb in the race. The Gavia and Val Martello climbs are both Category 1s. The competition to get up the road early will be fierce, as it will be difficult for any rider who misses out to take home the blue jersey. As leg-breaking as the first two climbs are, the final ascent will be an excellent opportunity for the GC men to attack each other, enough so that most of the big pink jersey contenders are probably planning to hold off on making moves until the road goes up for a final time. This means that the breakaway, already likely to be made up of some very talented climbers, will have a great shot of staying away.

As with most breakaway-friendly stages, naming favorites it’s quite difficult, but Julian Arredondo stands out as one of the likely protagonists to make things interesting. He went far too early on the Montecampione climb on Stage 15 and cracked, but he’s had a day off to recover some strength and he knows how important this one is. Given the likelihood of breakaway success, Arredondo is a great bet to take the stage from an early move, assuming he doesn’t go too deep trying to pick up points in the first two climbs. If he is there in the final, he’ll have a number of opportunities on the irregular slopes to launch an attack.

Colombia’s Fabio Duarte nabbed 2nd on Stage 15 among the very best climbers in this race. Unlike Arredondo, Duarte does not seem focused on the blue jersey, meaning that he won’t need to expend too much energy trying to be the first to the top of the Gavia or Stelvio climbs. He’s far enough down on GC to be allowed off the front and he’s on elite form at the moment, making him a great candidate for success here. If Duarte is on the front towards the end of the day, he’ll be a really difficult guy to catch on the final climb. Another option for Colombia is Duarte’s teammate Jarlinson Pantano, who came pretty close to victory from the breakaway on Stage 14 and could look to try again after recharging his batteries.

Katusha’s Daniel Moreno stuck with the GC contenders on Stage 15 and finished 8th on the day. No longer a threat for the maglia rosa, Moreno could try to go for a long one, and he’s obviously in top shape. Katusha came into this race with such high hopes, and Moreno is their best bet to make something happen.

Other strong options to go long include Sky’s Dario Cataldo and Sebastian Henao, Bardiani-CSF’s Stefano Pirazzi, Lampre’s Przemyslaw Niemiec and Diego Ulissi, Neri Sottoli’s Yonathan Monsalve, Astana’s Mikel Landa, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche.

If the peloton decides to keep the gaps manageable over the first two ascents, it will be tough for a breakaway to survive all the way up the brutal final climb. Should the GC contenders end up fighting it out for stage honors, Nairo Quintana has to be the favorite. He has shown in the last two stages that he’s recovered from the health issues that plagued the beginning of his bid for Giro glory, and he’s had another rest day since then just in case he wasn’t all the way back to full strength. With two long mountain slogs to wear out the legs in the first half of the stage and a third with plenty of excellent launching pads for attacks to close things out, Stage 16 suits Quintana’s skillset perfectly. He needs to claw back time on his GC rivals, and this is an excellent opportunity that he won’t likely pass up. I wouldn’t necessarily bet on him over the field, given the likelihood of breakaway success, but he’s certainly the single favorite rider to take the day.

Astana’s Fabio Aru delivered a beautiful victory on the Plan di Montecampione on Sunday. He made a decisive move to get away from the pack of GC contenders and stayed full throttle all the way up, putting his raw talent and his top-shelf form on full display. We’re into the third week of the race now and he has yet to show signs of slowing down. With teammates like Michele Scarponi and Mikel Landa, he has a great shot at continuing his successful Giro, though the seemingly endless climbing of Stage 16 will really put him to the test.

Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is climbing quite impressively in this race. Far enough back on GC that the big names are giving him breathing room to attack, he has gone on the move at nearly every opportunity so far, and clawed back some of the time that he lost early on the Giro. With the form he has displayed constantly jumping out ahead of his GC rivals, Pierre Rolland should have another strong performance in the cards. Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal has not been as successful, but he’s looked decent so far and could also see success if allowed to get out front.

Gaining time on almost all of his rivals (other than Quintana and Aru) on Stage 15, Rigoberto Uran made a strong statement that his Stage 14 may have been more the result of a bad day than a loss of climbing form. OPQS (with Wout Poels leading the way) has supported him well on the tough mountain days. He’s more focused on marking his GC rivals than jumping ahead for stage honors, but with his explosive uphill ability he could have a shot if things hold together until the end of the last climb.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka has a great resume on the very hard days in the mountains and could look to make something happen here. He was one of the strongest GC riders on Stage 15 and Stage 16 could be even better for the climbing star. AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo has not quite lived up to expectations in the past few stages but a true climber’s test with plenty of opportunities to attack should suit him. BMC’s Cadel Evans won’t love the constant changes of pace that his rivals are likely to force on these irregular slopes, but he could respond to moves more effectively after a rest day. Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman has hung with the best so far, but he has another brutal test waiting for him here.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Fabio Duarte | 3. Julian Arredondo

Keep an eye out for news of a possible route change in Stage 16, but even in the event of alterations, it’s still likely to be a day with big GC implications. The Stage 17 preview will be up a few hours after the Stage 16 finish. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

-Dane Cash

May 26, 2014