You can check out my preview of Gent-Wevelgem (including the women’s race!) over at VeloNews… Though if you’re just looking for a men’s race Top 10, here’s how I see it playing out.
Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: André Greipel, Arnaud Démare
Other Top Contenders: Peter Sagan, Fernando Gaviria, Jens Debusschere, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Matteo Trentin, Jens Debusschere, Sep Vanmarcke
Photo: Dane Cash.
Episode 36: E3 Harelbeke + Gent-Wevelgem 2016 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride gets ready for a big weekend of Classics racing with a double-header preview of E3 Harelbeke and Gent-Wevelgem.
[powerpress]
Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano talk route, favorites, and major storylines ahead of two WorldTour Classics: Friday’s E3 Harelbeke and Sunday’s Gent-Wevelgem.
Photo by Dane Cash.
With Stijn Vandenbergh and Niki Terpstra in a small lead group in the final 10 kilometers of Gent-Wevelgem, EQS seemed to have control of the race with a deadly 1-2 punch. But Luca Paolini launched a powerful attack with around 6 kilometers left in the stage, and not even the combined might of Vandenbergh, Terpstra, and the rest of the small lead group could reel him in. Terpstra ultimately crossed the line 2nd, Vandenbergh 4th. Just as had been the case for the Belgian super-squad in last month’s Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, EQS failed to turn an advantage into a victory.
Talking to VeloHuman after Gent-Wevelgem, Etixx-QuickStep CEO Patrick Lefevere did not see the form of his riders as a problem.
“I think the condition of the top riders is okay. I think maybe we’re the strongest riders in the bunch at the moment, if you look from Omloop Het Nieuwsblad until now, seeing the crash in the descent of the Poggio and Milan-San Remo, losing Stybar and Kwiatkowski, and then all the other races, we’re always on the podium,” Lefevere told VH. “Nieuwsblad 2nd, 3rd, 4th, winning Kuurne, the World Champion did a really great performance at Waregem, Harelbeke again, very strong, but every time, just somebody’s stronger.”
The team tactics were rather questionable at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, but here in Gent-Wevelgem, the insurmountable strength of Luca Paolini and a perfectly-timed attack by the Italian seemed to be the main obstacle to EQS success. The early abandonment of their Plan A, Mark Cavendish, and a steady stream of mechanicals all day did not help the situation. Lefevere seems to attribute the dearth of wins despite so many top placings to bad luck more than anything, and because of it, he is not as disappointed as he might otherwise be given the number of near misses: “I like winning of course, but seeing the bad luck we have, I think I cannot complain,” Lefevere said.
With the show of strength the team made today (and has made over the last several races), even if the victories have not come as readily as Etixx-QuickStep would have hoped, they will be the squad with the most legitimate contenders for next week’s Ronde van Vlaanderen, with Terpsta, Vandenbergh, and especially Zdenek Stybar all looking like viable options to challenge for the Monument victory.
The team showed at Gent-Wevelgem as they have shown time and again in the past that they are one of the strongest teams in the peloton in poor weather conditions, and if the rain and incredible winds of Gent-Wevelgem manage to stick around until the Tour of Flanders, it might seem a boon to the chances of the Belgian squad so proficient at riding in the crosswinds. Lefevere, however, was not too welcoming of the bad weather, despite his squad’s obvious favorable reaction to the conditions, saying that he hoped next week be “not as windy as today.”
“I don’t know if this was okay today,” he said. “I think if people get hurt because they’re blown away from the roads . . . there are limits.”
-Dane Cash
VeloHuman caught up with a few of the potential protagonists of Gent-Wevelgem just before the start of the race to get some inside-the-peloton insight on the race and the day’s nasty conditions.
How do you prepare in the run-up to a race like this, when you’re looking to take that big Classics win?
The race is a bit different. . . . Unfortunately I got sick after Algarve so I had to have a break for a while. Now we have to make the best out of it. And of course, the conditions today, it’s the same for everyone. But it would be nice to win a race like Gent-Wevelgem.
How do the wind and the rain affect your hope that this race ends in a sprint?
It’s about the teams, and how strong the teams are. Of course there will be a lot of echelons today, and we’re going to see, and we hope we will be up there.
Who else will you have your eye on as rivals?
We have to work as a team. Until the end of the race, it’s really dangerous to get a disadvantage if others are doing an echelon, so we have to be concentrated on our team.
How are you feeling in this weather?
Phew, I dunno. We’ll find out in a few more minutes. I don’t know. From the start it will be very difficult. It will be a long day. And with the weather, it makes it a lot colder, so we’ll just see how the body reacts.
What is the team plan for the day?
Just stay in good position all day, because you don’t know what’s going to happen in these races, you don’t know when they’re going to sprint, and try to be there for the end for the sprint. I think it’s going to be a select group, so hopefully we’ll be there.
You had a big win last month in Qatar. Still feeling on the same level?
I feel stronger, but I need a bit of luck to be in the right place at the right time I suppose.
Thoughts on the weather?
It’s fucking shit. It’s fucking terrible, and it’s just going to get worse as we get near the coast.
How are the legs?
The legs are okay, it’s just always a matter of having good position in these types of races, having a bit of luck, no flat tires, no crashes. Hopefully that will be the case today.
-Dane Cash
Geraint Thomas provided an exciting start to the WorldTour leg of Classics season with his bold move to win E3 Harelbeke on Friday. Now it’s on to Gent-Wevelgem.
A 240 kilometer trek through Flanders, starting in Deinze (outside of Ghent) and ending in Wevelgem, the race has a flat enough finale that things are often decided in a sprint. However, cobbled climbs along the way often make things a bit more interesting, whittling the peloton down to the tougher riders in the crowd or helping to launch the more aggressive types to victory from afar. There are nine officially recognized climbs on the profile (several of those are repeat ascents of the same uphill challenge). They are all crested after the 110 kilometer mark and before the 200 kilometer mark—the first 100 km and the final 30 are relatively flat.
The short but steep Baneberg, Kemmelberg, and Monteberg trio of climbs, a few kilometers southwest of Ieper, are done twice, and the conclusion of that second run-through also marks the end of the hellingen in Gent-Wevelgem. The difficult cobbles of the Kemmelberg, in particular, could be a battleground in this race, especially with the help of a common visitor to the event that seems scheduled to make another appearance in 2015: bad weather. As of Saturday, rain and very strong winds are both set to join the peloton for Gent-Wevelgem. Even with a less topographically challenging final 30 kilometers, the combination of tough cobbled climbs (and the often hairy descents that follow) in the middle of the day and likely difficult conditions throughout will surely do their damage.
The dearth of long climbs on the profile, especially close to the finish line, makes this a major target for the top sprinter’s in the peloton, but the bergs, the cobbles, the race distance, and the Flanders conditions will make the tougher quick men the top favorites for victory in this race, though a few of the more aggressive Classics specialists will certainly have a chance at taking this win for themselves.
Alexander Kristoff is at home in terrible conditions, comfortable on the cobbles, capable of a little climbing, and usually fresher than most after a very long day. He also happens to pack a powerful sprint. Though probably just a hair behind the likes of Marcel Kittel in terms of pure speed, here in the Classics, Kristoff’s makes up for the just slightly lower velocity with pure grit. There is no guarantee that this race ends in a sprint, but if it does, it’s hard to look past Kristoff’s abilities. He’s likely to hold on longer than most even if a high pace over the cobbled climbs starts dropping other sprinters, and if he’s there at the end of the day, few can match him in speed.
If he’s there as well, however, 2014 John Degenkolb will give Kristoff a run for his money. Already victorious over Kristoff in Milano-Sanremo, Degenkolb seems to get better and better every year both in the versatility department and in the top speed department. He’s a proven rider here in Gent-Wevelgem and on Flanders terrain in general. He might prefer a few more uphill challenges (his climbing legs are better than most) to maybe make things more selective but even if this race is contested in a large bunch sprint at the end of the day, Degenkolb will be a strong contender to repeat.
Mark Cavendish doesn’t have the same sort of versatility as some of the more Classics-oriented quick men here, but he is probably the fastest in a battle of pure speed. It won’t be easy making it to the line in the lead group, especially given the weather forecast, but if Cavendish can do it, he’ll have a great chance here—EQS teammate Matteo Trentin (3rd in E3) will be a strong second option in the sprints. Lotto Soudal’s André Greipel, who often rivals Cav in the pure sprints in stage races, and who has come close here in the past, is another very fast rider who will hope to hold on for a sprint at the end of a long day.
2014 runner-up Arnaud Démare has not had as much success early this season as he would have liked, but he is a big talent on this sort of parcours and motivated to prove himself as FDJ’s sole top name in the sprints this season. The rider he edged out for 2nd last year, Peter Sagan, will have an interesting choice to make this year: will he try to hold on for a sprint and test his luck against a pack of other fast finishers (as he did unsuccessfully in 2014) or will he launch a late attack and try to catch them all by surprise (as he did successfully in 2013, when he won the race)? The smart choice would seem to be to try to get away in a smaller group here, as he has not had much success in the bunch sprint lately. Either way, multi-talented Sagan is a threat in any scenario.
Giacomo Nizzolo has never finished this race, but given his skillset, he’ll be in with a chance. He’s a powerful sprinter, with a recent win at the GP Nobili, who doesn’t mind a long day. Unfortunately for Nizzolo, he crashed out of Dwars Door Vlaanderen and his current level of readiness to face the difficult Belgian roads again in a major race is unclear.
Nacer Bouhanni, Elia Viviani, Heinrich Haussler, Tyler Farrar, Sam Bennett, Jens Debusschere, and JJ Lobato are other quick men who will have a chance if it all comes down to a sprint.
Several familiar names seem the most likely protagonists to shake up the race with a late attack. Sep Vanmarcke, on great form right now, 2nd here in 2010, and typically unfazed by bad weather, is a particularly dangerous rider right now. His continually improving sprinting ability makes his case even stronger. Pedal problems plagued slowed him at E3, but that should only make him hungrier for more racing these next few days.
Greg Van Avermaet may not have the sprinting chops of the top quick men here but he could still win in a reduced gallop, if he is feeling comfortable and still confident after a bad crash at E3 Harelbeke.
E3 Harelbeke winner Geraint Thomas is one of the sport’s most versatile riders, capable of soloing, climbing, and even sprinting at a high level. This parcours doesn’t suit him quite as well as E3’s did but there are still plenty of opportunities to attack here.
The powerful EQS trio of Zdenek Stybar, Stijn Vandenbergh, and Niki Terpstra, MTN-Qhubeka’s new acquisition Edvald Boasson Hagen, Filippo Pozzato, Lars Boom, and Jurgen Roelandts are others with a chance of winning solo or from a small group.
Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: John Degenkolb, Mark Cavendish
Other Top Contenders: Peter Sagan, Sep Vanmarcke, Greg Van Avermaet, Arnaud Démare, Giacomo Nizzolo, André Greipel, Matteo Trentin
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis.
-Dane Cash
Episode 6: E3 Harelbeke + Gent-Wevelgem 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride takes on both of the weekend’s WorldTour one-day events in a double pre-race show of E3 Harelbeke and Gent-Wevelgem.
[powerpress]
Sharing a weekend, many of the same riders, and similar Belgian terrain, E3 Harelbeke and Gent-Wevelgem make for a great pair of races. VeloHuman and Cyclocosm explore the routes, the startlists, and the narratives, with a bit of help from AG2R-La Mondiale’s Hugo Houle.
Photo by shirokazan.