Episode 32: Paris-Nice 2016 Pre-race Show
The 2016 WorldTour has arrived in Europe—Paris-Nice is upon us! The podcast previews the eight-day “Race to the Sun.”
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Road racing is getting back into full swing, and so is the Recon Ride. Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano take a closer look at Paris-Nice.
Photo by Conseil départemental des Yvelines (CC).
Episode 8: Paris-Roubaix 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride gears up for Paris-Roubaix, the “Hell of the North,” taking a look at the history of the race, this year’s parcours, and the many riders who could make things interesting on Sunday.
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Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm cover the many storylines of Paris-Roubaix in the latest episode of the Recon Ride, which also features interview audio from Bradley Wiggins, Geraint Thomas, and Tyler Farrar.
Photo by Christian Bille.
With E3 and Gent-Wevelgem in the books, the Tour of Flanders is almost here. Sans Fabian Cancellara (and Tom Boonen, though he would not have enjoyed the same level of favorite status as Cancellara even if he were here) the 2015 Ronde looks especially open, which should make for quite a race.
At 264 kilometers, the Tour of Flanders is a long one, and the arduous journey gets more and more difficult as the day wears on. The peloton will set out from scenic Bruges and head south towards the cobbled climbs that this race has made so famous. The route contains seventeen officially classified climbs this year, many of them repeat trips up the same ascents, as the course starts looping into itself and covering the same ground again for multiple visits to these famous hellingen.
The final string of climbs that runs from roughly kilometer 219 to kilometer 251 are the likely battleground where this race will play out. Over the top of brutal challenges like the Koppenberg, after already having been up and over so many of these cobbles all day, the peloton is likely to break apart. And if things aren’t already shattered to pieces by the time the peloton hits the final climbs of the Oude Kwaremont and the Paterberg, the attacks are certain to fly on the long drag of the former and the vicious steepness of the latter.
After the descent from the Paterberg, it’s a mostly straight run to the line, meaning that anyone hoping to whittle down the lead group is going to look to act before the final few kilometers.
It’s a wide open field for the Tour of Flanders this season, with four or five riders enjoying roughly equivalent favorite status and a host of others nipping at their heels. LottoNL’s Sep Vanmarcke is certainly among the top contenders. The Belgian cobbled specialist was 3rd here in 2014 and despite never quite coming away with that big win he’s been searching for in his career, he’s displayed the grit, the bike handling, the climbing chops, and the explosive required to make a bid for glory here. The results in the run-up races of E3 and Gent-Wevelgem haven’t quite been where he would have hoped, with others appearing stronger out on the road in both events, but this is the real prize for Vanmarcke and he seems like an excellent rider to watch as the final Kwaremont-Paterberg double approaches.
Similarly versatile is Zdenek Stybar of Etixx-QuickStep, who happens to also have a true powerhouse of talent supporting him team-wise. Stybar looks to be the best of the EQS riders for this race because, among the Classics stars on this QuickStep roster, he best combines climbing legs and a powerful finishing kick. But Niki Terpstra and especially Stijn Vandenbergh, 4th here last year and extremely savvy racing these roads, give the team options. Expect to see attacks flying from all sides late in this race.
Team Sky also brings firepower with their many talented stars on the roster, with Geraint Thomas leading the way. Among the strongest climbers in this Ronde, Thomas is on terrific form right now as evidenced by his win at E3 and his follow-up 3rd place at Gent-Wevelgem. Being able to rely on Ian Stannard and Bradley Wiggins will help. With a pair of Top 10s here already on his resume and a recent win in a race that incorporated many of the same climbs, Thomas has the experience necessary to take on this race as a top favorite and it would be a big surprise not to see him try something on one of the final climbs. The question is whether he’ll be able to shed his top rivals who might give him a run for his money in a small sprint.
One rider certain to be hoping that this race ends with a small group sprinting for the win is Tinkoff-Saxo’s Peter Sagan. Flying more under the radar right now than maybe he was expecting to be due to a general lack of results this year, Sagan might have a bit of an advantage that he doesn’t usually enjoy; so often, his plans are foiled immediately because all of his rivals are eying him at all times. This year, with the focus on other riders, Sagan may have a chance to make something happen the way he wants to. The form hasn’t been too bad, and this is a major objective, so he can’t be ignored even though he hasn’t been lighting it up coming into the Ronde this year.
After a crash at E3, where his skillset would have made him one of the likely top contenders at the business end of the race, Greg Van Avermaet might be flying under the radar a bit as well. But he seems to have recovered from his fall and he has been in excellent shape so far this year. 2nd here last year and a more capable sprinter than most, he may be able to look for the right wheels to follow this year rather than launching one of his trademark “almost-good-enough” attacks. Daniel Oss makes for a terrific teammate.
Speaking of terrific teammates, Alexander Kristoff will be in good hands with Luca Paolini at his side as well. In Katusha’s pre-race press conference, Paolini was very clear in his support of Kristoff, and that solidarity will be a great boon for the Norwegian. It won’t be easy to keep this together for a sprint (which is what Kristoff will need to win here) but Kristoff is tougher than most and with Paolini to help close down attacks if necessary, he has a fighting chance. So too does John Degenkolb, who may not have much of a history in this race but who has shown that he can climb well (winning plenty of hilly, intermediate-stage type races in the past) and ride cobbles well (winning Gent-Wevelgem in 2014 and taking 2nd in Paris-Roubaix that year) which are the necessary requirements to hanging on here. Given the difficult nature of this race and the wide open field likely to see constant attacks, I think the sprinters will have a very hard time here, but Kristoff and Degenkolb are the two obvious riders to watch in that potential scenario.
Jürgen Roelandts, who proved his great form with a bold solo move in Gent-Wevelgem, also packs a quick finish and that makes him dangerous here, with the surprising Jens Debusschere as an alternative. Stijn Devolder will head up Trek’s Flanders campaign in the absence of Fabian Cancellara. Cannondale-Garmin’s Sebastian Langeveld was a late addition to the startlist, recovering from a recent crash; he’s a great talent in unknown shape right now. Astana’s Lars Boom, OGE’s Jens Keukeleire, MTN-Qhubeka’s Gerald Ciolek, and a stable of young Topsport Vlaanderen talents that includes Jelle Wallays and Edward Theuns are among the outsiders who will hope to contend.
Winner: Sep Vanmarcke
Podium: Zdenek Stybar, Geraint Thomas
Other Top Contenders: Greg Van Avermaet, Peter Sagan, Stijn Vandenbergh, Jürgen Roelandts, Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb, Niki Terpstra
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more roadside analysis during the race. Also, don’t miss the Recon Ride podcast, with pre-race insight from Sep Vanmarcke, Geraint Thomas, and Patrick Lefevere.
-Dane Cash
Photo by Mick Knapton.
Episode 7: Ronde van Vlaanderen 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride takes on Belgium’s biggest race, the Tour of Flanders, with plenty of insider insight from a few people likely to play a major role in the event.
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VeloHuman and Cyclocosm join forces again to present the Recon Ride Ronde van Vlaanderen Pre-race Show, with more insider knowledge than ever, thanks to interviews with race favorites Sep Vanmarcke and Geraint Thomas and EQS CEO Patrick Lefevere.
Photo by Ctankcycles.
The WorldTour returns to the land of the Spring Classics for one week in August, and that week is upon us: the 2014 Eneco Tour is here. A seven-day ride through Belgium and the Netherlands, the Eneco Tour was for many years a race decided almost exclusively by one day of time trialing, but recent years have seen more and more challenges added to the parcours to guarantee that the battle for General Classification rages across the whole week. With classics specialists having a chance to show their strength one last time on the WorldTour calendar and several riders nearing peak form for the upcoming Vuelta, competition tends to be fierce, and the 2014 edition should continue the trend.
The first two stages take place on mostly flat profiles that aren’t likely to shake up the General Classification. Stage 3 is a short (9.6 km) time trial that certainly will; however, this is not the Eneco Tour of old. Strength against the clock will always be important in a weeklong race with a chrono stage and no real mountains, but there are enough challenges in this year’s Eneco Tour to make the fight for overall victory a much more drawn-out affair.
Stage 4 takes place in the same region as the spring’s Gent-Wevelgmen, traversing some of the same roads. Fittingly, the next stage will put the peloton through a number of difficult tests made famous by the Tour of Flanders. With two full climbs up the legendary Muur van Geraardsbergen before finishing there after 160 kilometers (with visits to other familiar Ronde climbs, like the Kruisberg and Bosberg, along the way), Stage 5 is a very difficult day that is certain to play a major role in the General Classification of the Eneco Tour.
Stage 6 offers no respite: with nonstop steep climbs all the way from start to finish, including multiple trips up and over La Redoute, one of the toughest challenges of April’s Liege-Bastogne-Liege, it will bring the punchy climbers to the fore. The seventh and final stage of the race is yet another day of nonstop climbing, as the Eneco Tour culminates with a visit to Amstel Gold Race country and many of the same short, steep climbs (though not the Cauberg) that feature in that event. While the weekend of familiar challenges won’t present the riders with any single stages nearing the length of the grueling spring classics, several consecutive very difficult days will guarantee some serious selection on the GC leaderboard.
Zdenek Stybar returns to the race as the defending champion, with the always impressive Omega Pharma-Quick Step squad backing his campaign for a repeat victory. Strong in the time trial, capable on the shorter climbs, and even handy in a sprint for bonus seconds, Stybar has the versatile toolset to compete, though this edition of the race is even harder than last year’s and uphill ability is at an even higher premium. However, the Czech star showed his climbing mettle in the 2013 Eneco Tour, putting in his best work on the very hilly stages, and he put his climbing form on display as recently as last weekend when he landed 10th the Clasica de San Sebastian. Still, while he put in Top 10 performances in both Milano-Sanremo and Paris-Roubaix in the spring, Stybar has not landed as many big results so far this season as might have been expected, and these climbs will really put him to the test. In short, it will be a challenge holding on to his title against some very dangerous rivals. OPQS does have plenty of strong, versatile lieutenants to put the pressure on from all angles, with the likes of Niki Terpstra and Matteo Trentin (among others) in attendance and capable of getting in to the mix on all kinds of different terrain.
2013 runner-up Tom Dumoulin is an elite time trialist who may lament the fact that the chrono stage is 3.6 kilometers shorter in this year’s race, but he’s also a strong climber who should appreciate the climbing challenges that await. 2nd to Tony Martin in Stage 20 ITT in the 2014 Tour de France, he’s on sharp form this summer. He’s also shown a bit more explosiveness this season, which will be a major asset here. His skillset puts him in an excellent position to better his result from last year. Hilly parcours specialist Simon Geschke will be an excellent second.
Sky’s Geraint Thomas has all the skills necessary to fight for the top step on the podium. He has not had much of a break from racing since winning the Bayern Rundfahrt at the beginning of June, but it’s hard to draw up a better parcours for a rider who combines cobblestone prowess with good climbing legs and a particular affinity for short time trials. If he can hold on to top form all the way through the race, he will be very hard to beat. Teammate Edvald Boasson Hagen is actually a two-time winner of the Eneco Tour, but the recent increased focus on uphill tests do not favor his toolset as much as past editions did, and he may be hunting stages and playing lieutenant in this year’s race. Ian Stannard has finally returned from his long break following a serious injury suffered in the spring, and Sky will be glad to see him back on the bike in the WorldTour’s return to the Low Countries.
BMC’s Philippe Gilbert was running well in the 2013 edition before a crash forced him to abandon the race. He’s been dealing with illness recently but his top-notch performance in the RideLondon Classic suggests that he’s back to full strength and ready to contest the 2014 edition of this race. He excels in the shorter time trials, and with the Ardennes-style final two stages, I like his chances to stand on the overall podium. As is standard operating procedure for such a powerhouse team, BMC has plenty of other options: Greg Van Avermaet showed excellent form with an 8th place finish in a very difficult Clasica de San Sebastian, and the sort of climbing chops required to land a good result in that race will be crucial for the last few stages of the Eneco Tour. New acquisition Rohan Dennis, a good climber with an elite time trial, could also try to get into the mix, and Steve Cummings, great in the short chronos, is yet another option, having a strong season so far.
Trek’s Fabian Cancellara is on the startlist after cutting his Tour de France campaign short to prepare for later season goals. Despite its classics-season feel, this has never been a race he’s targeted, and it’s hard to say where it ranks on his list of 2014 goals. As the sport’s most dominant classics rider right now, Cancellara will obviously be among the top favorites if he has the form and drive to hunt for the overall victory. It’s hard to see past him whenever the Muur van Geraardsbergen is involved. His classics prowess hasn’t extended into Ardennes results in his career, but he can usually handle some short climbs, and he’s obviously a top candidate in the time trial stage. Stijn Devolder is always a dangerous teammate.
Belkin’s Lars Boom has had a great deal of success in the Eneco Tour in the past, winning in 2012, but the parcours is no longer one that suits his style quite as well, and the last two stages will be a major challenge. Bauke Mollema may be the GC rider of choice here, given the back-to-back Ardennes-like stages that close out the race. 2nd in San Sebastian, he’s clearly carried some strong form out of the disappointing Tour de France, and his underrated sprinting ability will be a major asset in a race where bonus seconds often play a significant role in the GC results. Sep Vanmarcke is also on the startlist; the parcours is probably a bit bumpy for him, but he proved in the Tour de France that he doesn’t mind a few climbs. Garmin-Sharp has Ramunas Navardauskas and Sebastian Langeveld, the former very strong in a short time trial and on up-and-down profiles, the latter a proven classics talent who was 3rd in this race back in 2009. Lotto Belisol’s two-pronged attack of Jelle Vanendert and Tim Wellens will love the look of the final two stages and could surprise some people. Bjorn Leukemans of Wanty-Groupe Gobert has a knack for landing good results on this sort of terrain. OGE’s Jens Keukeleire is a rising classics talent who could be in the mix, while teammate Michael Hepburn will likely spend at least a little time near the top of the GC leaderboard given the early position of the time trial in the race. Peter Sagan initially seemed set to participate (and contend) in this race, but he is no longer on Cannondale’s roster to make the start; Moreno Moser looks to be the team’s main hope on this parcours.
In a race without any real mountains, so many riders who spend most of their stage-racing days hunting stage victories have a rare real shot at the General Classification (and are therefore among the many aforementioned potential overall protagonists), but there are still a few sprinting heavyweights and time trialing specialists yet to be mentioned who will be searching for individual wins in the Eneco Tour.
The list of strong sprinters includes Lotto Belisol’s Andre Greipel, FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni, Giant-Shimano’s Luka Mezgec, Lampre-Merida’s Sacha Modolo, and Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo as likely contenders for a bunch gallop. Tyler Farrar, who did not look great in the Tour of Poland but who tends perform well in the Low Countries, Matti Breschel, OGE’s Leigh Howard and Matt Goss, Movistar’s JJ Rojas and JJ Lobato, Barry Markus, Andrea Guardini, Bryan Coquard, and Tom Boonen could also feature in the sprints.
Plenty of strong chrono riders were already named as possible GC contenders, but watch out for Alex Dowsett, Patrick Gretsch, Jesse Sergeant, and David Millar in the ITT as well.
Winner: Tom Dumoulin
Podium: Zdenek Stybar, Philippe Gilbert
Other Top Contenders: Geraint Thomas, Greg Van Avermaet, Fabian Cancellara, Bauke Mollema, Ramunas Navardauskas, Rohan Dennis, Jelle Vandendert
As usual, I’ll be tweeting plenty of live analysis during the race, so follow @VeloHuman on Twitter to stay connected. Also, be sure to come back soon for more previews, interviews, and analysis: the Vuelta a España is right around the corner!
-Dane Cash
Photo by Susanne.
The last week of March was positively full of WorldTour racing, and each day offered insights into who is on form and who is not in early 2014. Because of the major implications of the one-day races for the upcoming Monuments, and the golden opportunity to view the form of the top GC riders on the planet during their heavyweight bout in the mountains of Catalunya, I decided the races were worth a few minutes spent cataloging some post-race impressions.
Peter Sagan picked up the second major spring classic victory of his career last Friday at E3 Harelbeke, sticking a late attack with Geraint Thomas, Niki Terpstra, and Stijn Vandenbergh and rather easily outsprinting the rest of the escapees to the line. Sep Vanmarcke and Tony Gallopin jumped from the chasing pack for the next placings and then Borut Bozic led the bunch over the line, with Tyler Farrar, Fabian Cancellara (who put in a valiant effort trying to track down the escapees despite being delayed by a crash), Greg van Avermaet and a banged up Tom Boonen following, among others. Two days later in Gent-Wevelgem, the peloton ate up attacks one by one to force a bunch sprint, but not without danger along the way. Crashes wreaked havoc on the peloton all day, downing the likes of Ian Stannard (who fractured a vertebra), Andre Greipel (who broke a collarbone), and Tyler Farrar and slowing Cancellara. Enough stayed upright for a bunch finish. MSR winner Alexander Kristoff jumped first, but Sagan, John Degenkolb, and Arnaud Demare charged past as he faded. Degenkolb took the win with Demare 2nd and Sagan 3rd. Sep Vanmarcke was an impressive 4th. Boonen (despite an injured thumb) pulled in 5th.
Sagan’s strength in the successful E3 move shows that he’s on a very high level in the area of his game he’ll need most in the upcoming Tour of Flanders. Meanwhile, he couldn’t match high octane Degenkolb and Demare in the sprint. I’m beginning to think he has made a conscious decision to angle towards improving his climbing and endurance possibly at the expense of pure sprinting this year; Flanders will be a good indicator of things.
Fellow E3 top finisher Geraint Thomas looked very sharp, certainly back on the level after a messy crash in Paris-Nice. With Stannard out for the foreseeable future, Thomas’s showing is important for Sky’s classics campaign. The climbs and distance of Flanders will be a good opportunity for him to show off his skillset.
Gent-Wevelgem brought John Degenkolb the spring classic he’d been seeking. He burst onto the scene with a dominating Vuelta performance in 2012 and has built on that promise. I look forward to the next stage race that he and Sagan attend together. Arnaud Demare was very close behind him at the line. He will be disappointed at coming so close, but it was a good showing that bodes well for the future.
Despite a lack of success during the weekend, Cancellara showed continued power in his efforts at the front of the peloton in both races. E3 and Gent-Wevelgem are big events but Cancellara has his eyes on the Monumental prizes, and he looks sharp. Rival Tom Boonen took a backseat to Niki Terpstra in Harelbeke but he was quite quick in the Gent-Wevelgem finish. Like Cancellara, he looks ready for Flanders and Paris. Terpstra was doomed to 2nd when the E3 break was unable to drop Sagan, but he did look quite strong. Zdenek Stybar was active during the weekend and will relish the more difficult contests to come.
Sep Vanmarcke was one of the strongest riders in both races. He managed a 5th place in E3 despite running into mechanical issues on the day, and surprised many (including me) with his sprint to 4th on Sunday. It was nice to see him giving the races his all even when victory seemed out of the picture. He has been everywhere in the early season classics, and I think he’s likely to mix it up with Cancellara, Boonen, and Sagan in the next two weeks.
Andre Greipel missed out on a golden opportunity to pick up a big classics victory, and now he’ll miss time for injury to boot. It’s a shame for the German sprinter, who is a true gentleman of the sport, and who obviously has the talent to succeed in one-day races as well as in the Grand Tour sprints he’s known for.
Other takeaways from the E3 Harelbeke/Gent-Wevelgem weekend: Topsport Vlaanderen’s Tom Van Asbroeck looks primed for a bright future, getting into the Top 10 mix in G-W after already notching some semi-classic success in 2014. Jurgen Roelandts sniped the final Top 10 spot in G-W despite a last minute designation as team leader after Greipel went down. He has looked very strong across the first few weeks of classics season, and now that he won’t be on teammate duty, he could pose a threat in the race he took 3rd in last year, Flanders. Alternativley, Lotto could look to success from Tony Gallopin, who looked sharp on the climbs in Paris-Nice and who was strong at the E3 finish.
The heavyweight GC competition may have been the big story in Spain, but first, a quick word on the stagehunters. While John Degenkolb was prepping for his days on the cobbles, teammate Luka Mezgec was absolutely cleaning up the sprints in Catalunya, earning a hat trick of victories against the likes of Leigh Howard and Roberto Ferrari. He’s a versatile rider who can hang on over the climbs (kind of like Degenkolb) and he packs a heck of a punch… He also shares youth with Giant’s other star sprinters: Mezgec, like Degenkolb and Marcel Kittel, is only 25! OPQS youth Julian Alaphillipe (just 21!), a cyclocross transfer, looked strong as well in Catalunya with three top 5 stage finishes.
Now to the GC contenders. Joaquim Rodriguez won the mountainous 3rdstage, taking the race lead, which he successfully defended through to the final podium. Alberto Contador was 2nd on the day, and he defended that position through to the final podium as well. Tejay van Garderen, 4th on stage 3, improved his position by winning a cold, dreary, foggy stage 4, and he hold on for 3rdoverall. Romain Bardet was just behind, both on the stage and in the GC. Nairo Quintana and Chris Froome were strong throughout the race, but could not match their rivals at the top, settling for 5th and 6th, respectively.
There was plenty of insight to be gleaned from the climbers’ battle, but there are also some caveats. Starting with the insight: Purito quickly proved that his time away from racing was not spent on the couch. He was simply too strong on his way up La Molina, and if there were any concerns about his 2014 form heading into the month of the Ardennes classics, I’d say he dispelled them. Contador was among the top climbers on both decisive stages, and active on other days as well. Having just put in a Herculean effort in Tirreno-Adriatico, he still managed to challenge for the overall victory here, and if his performance in Italy did not say it emphatically enough, he is most definitely back. Meanwhile, Froome and Quintana, while among the best riders in the race, were not on the level of Purito and Contador. However, I think it is dangerous to draw too many conclusions from their performances. As was noted in the original preview, Quintana was still taking anti-biotics to stave of illness at the start of the race, and Froome was coming off of back pain that sidelined him for Tirreno-Adriatico and subsequent training. Given the circumstances, Quintana and Froome looked fine in Catalunya and I don’t think either is concerned.
To my mind, Tejay van Garderen made the biggest statement of the race. Despite lurking at the top levels of the sport in the past two years, Tejay had yet to take a WorldTour victory before last week. He remedied that with a beautiful uphill charge through the mist on a stage 4 whose conditions were so bad that the only TV coverage came in the final ten minutes of the race. After last year’s disappointing Tour de France, Tejay looks to be better than ever, and winning a stage with a quick upward burst is even more impressive, as van Garderen is not really known for explosiveness. To stand on the podium in a race without a time trial against such high level competition bodes extremely well for van Garderen. AG2R’s Romain Bardet, who narrowly missed the stage 4 victory behind van Garderen, was vindicated after a series of misfortunes kept him from contending in Paris-Nice with his 4th overall here, on the same time as Nairo Quintana.
Garmin will be pleased with Andrew Talansky’s 7th place, just behind Froome himself. The American was still rounding into form at Tirreno-Adriatico, and it looks like he is progressing nicely ahead of his first big target of the season, the Tour de Romandie. Meanwhile, teammates Dan Martin and Ryder Hesjedal both look to coming along as well (Martin is targeting the Ardennes and the Giro), from the same position of uncertainty.
Warren Barguil was another statement-maker. Two Vuelta wins last year put the young French Giant-Shimano rider on the map, but as both came in breakaways, he had yet to mix it up with the big GC riders. Barguil crossed the line in the stage 4 finish behind Chris Froome, and ended the race 9th overall. According to ProCyclingStats, he’s set to start the Ardennes classics for GSH, and with Tom Dumoulin (winner of the Criterium International ITT) he makes a dangerous duo with the potential for serious long range strikes.
The stars of E3 and Gent-Wevelgem take on the biggest prizes of the classics season in the next two weeks, starting in Flanders on Sunday. Meanwhile, many of the top names from Catalunya will head across Spain to start in the Tour of the Basque country, with Amstel, La Fleche Wallonne, and Liege to follow.
The Tour of Flanders and Tour of the Basque country are the next previews on the docket. As usual, I’ll also be tweeting plenty of analysis of the action; be sure to follow the new @VeloHuman on Twitter!
-Dane Cash
Photo by Mossos.