Episode 36: E3 Harelbeke + Gent-Wevelgem 2016 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride gets ready for a big weekend of Classics racing with a double-header preview of E3 Harelbeke and Gent-Wevelgem.
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Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano talk route, favorites, and major storylines ahead of two WorldTour Classics: Friday’s E3 Harelbeke and Sunday’s Gent-Wevelgem.
Photo by Dane Cash.
With Stijn Vandenbergh and Niki Terpstra in a small lead group in the final 10 kilometers of Gent-Wevelgem, EQS seemed to have control of the race with a deadly 1-2 punch. But Luca Paolini launched a powerful attack with around 6 kilometers left in the stage, and not even the combined might of Vandenbergh, Terpstra, and the rest of the small lead group could reel him in. Terpstra ultimately crossed the line 2nd, Vandenbergh 4th. Just as had been the case for the Belgian super-squad in last month’s Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, EQS failed to turn an advantage into a victory.
Talking to VeloHuman after Gent-Wevelgem, Etixx-QuickStep CEO Patrick Lefevere did not see the form of his riders as a problem.
“I think the condition of the top riders is okay. I think maybe we’re the strongest riders in the bunch at the moment, if you look from Omloop Het Nieuwsblad until now, seeing the crash in the descent of the Poggio and Milan-San Remo, losing Stybar and Kwiatkowski, and then all the other races, we’re always on the podium,” Lefevere told VH. “Nieuwsblad 2nd, 3rd, 4th, winning Kuurne, the World Champion did a really great performance at Waregem, Harelbeke again, very strong, but every time, just somebody’s stronger.”
The team tactics were rather questionable at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, but here in Gent-Wevelgem, the insurmountable strength of Luca Paolini and a perfectly-timed attack by the Italian seemed to be the main obstacle to EQS success. The early abandonment of their Plan A, Mark Cavendish, and a steady stream of mechanicals all day did not help the situation. Lefevere seems to attribute the dearth of wins despite so many top placings to bad luck more than anything, and because of it, he is not as disappointed as he might otherwise be given the number of near misses: “I like winning of course, but seeing the bad luck we have, I think I cannot complain,” Lefevere said.
With the show of strength the team made today (and has made over the last several races), even if the victories have not come as readily as Etixx-QuickStep would have hoped, they will be the squad with the most legitimate contenders for next week’s Ronde van Vlaanderen, with Terpsta, Vandenbergh, and especially Zdenek Stybar all looking like viable options to challenge for the Monument victory.
The team showed at Gent-Wevelgem as they have shown time and again in the past that they are one of the strongest teams in the peloton in poor weather conditions, and if the rain and incredible winds of Gent-Wevelgem manage to stick around until the Tour of Flanders, it might seem a boon to the chances of the Belgian squad so proficient at riding in the crosswinds. Lefevere, however, was not too welcoming of the bad weather, despite his squad’s obvious favorable reaction to the conditions, saying that he hoped next week be “not as windy as today.”
“I don’t know if this was okay today,” he said. “I think if people get hurt because they’re blown away from the roads . . . there are limits.”
-Dane Cash
Geraint Thomas provided an exciting start to the WorldTour leg of Classics season with his bold move to win E3 Harelbeke on Friday. Now it’s on to Gent-Wevelgem.
A 240 kilometer trek through Flanders, starting in Deinze (outside of Ghent) and ending in Wevelgem, the race has a flat enough finale that things are often decided in a sprint. However, cobbled climbs along the way often make things a bit more interesting, whittling the peloton down to the tougher riders in the crowd or helping to launch the more aggressive types to victory from afar. There are nine officially recognized climbs on the profile (several of those are repeat ascents of the same uphill challenge). They are all crested after the 110 kilometer mark and before the 200 kilometer mark—the first 100 km and the final 30 are relatively flat.
The short but steep Baneberg, Kemmelberg, and Monteberg trio of climbs, a few kilometers southwest of Ieper, are done twice, and the conclusion of that second run-through also marks the end of the hellingen in Gent-Wevelgem. The difficult cobbles of the Kemmelberg, in particular, could be a battleground in this race, especially with the help of a common visitor to the event that seems scheduled to make another appearance in 2015: bad weather. As of Saturday, rain and very strong winds are both set to join the peloton for Gent-Wevelgem. Even with a less topographically challenging final 30 kilometers, the combination of tough cobbled climbs (and the often hairy descents that follow) in the middle of the day and likely difficult conditions throughout will surely do their damage.
The dearth of long climbs on the profile, especially close to the finish line, makes this a major target for the top sprinter’s in the peloton, but the bergs, the cobbles, the race distance, and the Flanders conditions will make the tougher quick men the top favorites for victory in this race, though a few of the more aggressive Classics specialists will certainly have a chance at taking this win for themselves.
Alexander Kristoff is at home in terrible conditions, comfortable on the cobbles, capable of a little climbing, and usually fresher than most after a very long day. He also happens to pack a powerful sprint. Though probably just a hair behind the likes of Marcel Kittel in terms of pure speed, here in the Classics, Kristoff’s makes up for the just slightly lower velocity with pure grit. There is no guarantee that this race ends in a sprint, but if it does, it’s hard to look past Kristoff’s abilities. He’s likely to hold on longer than most even if a high pace over the cobbled climbs starts dropping other sprinters, and if he’s there at the end of the day, few can match him in speed.
If he’s there as well, however, 2014 John Degenkolb will give Kristoff a run for his money. Already victorious over Kristoff in Milano-Sanremo, Degenkolb seems to get better and better every year both in the versatility department and in the top speed department. He’s a proven rider here in Gent-Wevelgem and on Flanders terrain in general. He might prefer a few more uphill challenges (his climbing legs are better than most) to maybe make things more selective but even if this race is contested in a large bunch sprint at the end of the day, Degenkolb will be a strong contender to repeat.
Mark Cavendish doesn’t have the same sort of versatility as some of the more Classics-oriented quick men here, but he is probably the fastest in a battle of pure speed. It won’t be easy making it to the line in the lead group, especially given the weather forecast, but if Cavendish can do it, he’ll have a great chance here—EQS teammate Matteo Trentin (3rd in E3) will be a strong second option in the sprints. Lotto Soudal’s André Greipel, who often rivals Cav in the pure sprints in stage races, and who has come close here in the past, is another very fast rider who will hope to hold on for a sprint at the end of a long day.
2014 runner-up Arnaud Démare has not had as much success early this season as he would have liked, but he is a big talent on this sort of parcours and motivated to prove himself as FDJ’s sole top name in the sprints this season. The rider he edged out for 2nd last year, Peter Sagan, will have an interesting choice to make this year: will he try to hold on for a sprint and test his luck against a pack of other fast finishers (as he did unsuccessfully in 2014) or will he launch a late attack and try to catch them all by surprise (as he did successfully in 2013, when he won the race)? The smart choice would seem to be to try to get away in a smaller group here, as he has not had much success in the bunch sprint lately. Either way, multi-talented Sagan is a threat in any scenario.
Giacomo Nizzolo has never finished this race, but given his skillset, he’ll be in with a chance. He’s a powerful sprinter, with a recent win at the GP Nobili, who doesn’t mind a long day. Unfortunately for Nizzolo, he crashed out of Dwars Door Vlaanderen and his current level of readiness to face the difficult Belgian roads again in a major race is unclear.
Nacer Bouhanni, Elia Viviani, Heinrich Haussler, Tyler Farrar, Sam Bennett, Jens Debusschere, and JJ Lobato are other quick men who will have a chance if it all comes down to a sprint.
Several familiar names seem the most likely protagonists to shake up the race with a late attack. Sep Vanmarcke, on great form right now, 2nd here in 2010, and typically unfazed by bad weather, is a particularly dangerous rider right now. His continually improving sprinting ability makes his case even stronger. Pedal problems plagued slowed him at E3, but that should only make him hungrier for more racing these next few days.
Greg Van Avermaet may not have the sprinting chops of the top quick men here but he could still win in a reduced gallop, if he is feeling comfortable and still confident after a bad crash at E3 Harelbeke.
E3 Harelbeke winner Geraint Thomas is one of the sport’s most versatile riders, capable of soloing, climbing, and even sprinting at a high level. This parcours doesn’t suit him quite as well as E3’s did but there are still plenty of opportunities to attack here.
The powerful EQS trio of Zdenek Stybar, Stijn Vandenbergh, and Niki Terpstra, MTN-Qhubeka’s new acquisition Edvald Boasson Hagen, Filippo Pozzato, Lars Boom, and Jurgen Roelandts are others with a chance of winning solo or from a small group.
Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: John Degenkolb, Mark Cavendish
Other Top Contenders: Peter Sagan, Sep Vanmarcke, Greg Van Avermaet, Arnaud Démare, Giacomo Nizzolo, André Greipel, Matteo Trentin
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis.
-Dane Cash
E3 Harelbeke is in the books! Cannondale’s Peter Sagan, facing questions of his form after a disappointing Milano-Sanremo, won a commanding victory over Niki Terpstra and Geraint Thomas, surviving attempts from the peloton to reel in their late attack. Now, it’s on to Gent-Wevelgem, Sunday’s roughly 230 kilometer journey from Deinze to Wevelgem near the Flemish coast. Its trademark Kemmelberg is a steep, challenging obstacle on the way to the finish, but Gent-Wevelgem has been one for the sprinters in recent years (though Peter Sagan used a late attack, and not his elite sprint, to win last year’s edition). As such, the field is full of fast men. Most of the top names are here, and their teams will be focused on bringing them to the line safely.
Peter Sagan, winner here last year, has the climbing legs to make it over the bumps along the way and the kick to outsprint most of the starters to the line. VeloHuman wasn’t really concerned about his form after Milano-Sanremo, but some observers were; he put those concerns to bed with a masterful performance at E3 Harelbeke. It’s hard to see a select group making the final kilometers without Sagan in it, and he has one of the fastest finishes in the race, fast enough to contend with anyone here. If he feels threatened by some of the bigger sprinters, he also has the ability to power away on his own, as he did in 2013.
Omega Pharma might have had a strong bid to challenge Sagan here, but health issues are putting their chances in doubt. Tom Boonen has won this race three times. Like Sagan, he can make it over bumps and can get into late moves, or initiate them himself, but he also has the kick to be in the mix in a bunch finish. However, he injured his thumb in E3 Harelbeke, and that injury could keep him from making an impact at Gent-Wevelgem; keep an eye here or at the new VH Twitter account, @VeloHuman, for updates. He’ll be in my Top 10 for now. Zdenek Stybar is another option, but G-W might not be difficult enough for him to be a true contender. Stijn Vandenbergh looked great in E3, but his finishing kick could leave him lacking here. Pure sprinter Mark Cavendish could have been the guy for OPQS (his 5th place in Sanremo shows he’s capable in 2014 of making it to the line in a tough one day race, and with the elite Belgian squad to deliver him, Gent-Wevelgem could have been within his reach), but a fever will sideline him Sunday. Perhaps they will turn to Nikolas Maes in his stead?
Mark Cavendish’s ever-present sprinting rival Andre Greipel will make the start. The Lotto-Belisol rider mentioned both cramps and a gearing issue as problematic for him in MSR, but whatever the reason, he did not make an impression there. Still, with a strong team to help him overcome the Belgian landscape, he’s a great bet in a sprint finish. Lotto looked very good at E3 Harelbeke, and Gent-Wevelgem could suit their star fast man.
Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff was not in the least bit troubled by the rigors of Milano-Sanremo, and he showed an impressive kick after a hard-fought day in that race, taking a commanding victory ahead of some top talent. Clearly at the top level right now, Kristoff will look to deliver again in Gent-Wevelgem. He has a knack for winning bunch sprints in the cobbled classics, even if those sprints are contesting 4th place behind the day’s last surviving attackers. This race offers a great opportunity for sprinters like Kristoff to actually contest the victory. Luca Paolini is a fine second. Another rider who has made a career out of a impressive kicks following long days is Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb, who was robbed of his chance at Milano-Sanremo glory by an untimely puncture in the closing kilometers. He will take on Gent-Wevelgem looking for some shred of vindication. He managed to make it into the Top 10 of last year’s Tour of Flanders and the 2012 edition of E3, so he has shown at least some ability on cobbled Belgian roads. On the fine form he’s showing this year, with the added fuel of a chip on the shoulder, Degenkolb should challenge for victory here.
FDJ’s Arnaud Demare was unable to hang on in Milano-Sanremo but this race should be more manageable, and he looks good this year. Lampre’s Sacha Modolo was a well-placed finisher in MSR and might be an even better bet here, with Filippo Pozzato (who has notched a few top 10s here) another strong option for the team, especially if some of the top sprinters are weeded out. Orica-Greenedge sends Matt Goss, desperate to show he still has what it takes. Garmin-Sharp’s Tyler Farrar looked great in Dwars door Vlaanderen and E3 Harelbeke, and he has a very strong supporting cast to deliver him here. Belkin’s Moreno Hofland has looked great in several races this year, and he, too, has a very strong supporting cast. Other contenders looking for a sprint finish, reduced or otherwise, include Astana’s Borut Bozic and Francesco Gavazzi, MTN’s Gerald Ciolek, Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, Tinkoff-Saxo’s triple option of Matti Breschel, Daniele Bennati, and Michael Morkov, Movistar’s JJ Lobato, IAM’s Matteo Pelucchi and Heinrich Haussler, Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen (winner in 2009) and Bernie Eisel (winner in 2010), NetApp’s Sam Bennett, WGG’s Jean-Pierre Drucker, AG2R’s Davide Appolonio, and BMC’s Thor Hushovd.
Trek’s Fabian Cancellara could try to animate the race with a solo move. A crash with around 40 km to go in E3 made it all the more difficult for Cancellara to get to the front of affairs, but his 8th place there showed good cobbled form. Unfortunately for Cancellara, the G-W parcours favors him less. Still, he’s shown a good finishing kick so far in 2014 should he need to use it. Belkin’s Sep Vanmarcke, also on blazing form this spring (hampered in that race by a number of mechanical issues, he still nabbed 5th at E3 Harelbeke), will look for getaway opportunities as well. Teammate Lars Boom is sure to do the same; watch out for fireworks from Belkin. The parcours will make victory from a late attack difficult, but Sky’s Ian Stannard and Geraint Thomas (looking great right now), Garmin’s Sebastian Langeveld, BMC’s Greg van Avermaet and Taylor Phinney, Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Roelandts and Tony Gallopin, IAM’s Sylvain Chavanel, Omega Pharma’s Zdenek Stybar, OGE’s Jens Keukeleire, and WGG’s Bjorn Leukemans are other candidates to go for a long one.
Winner: Peter Sagan
Podium: Alexander Kristoff, Andre Greipel
Other Top Contenders: John Degenkolb, Arnaud Demare, Borut Bozic, Sacha Modolo, Fabian Cancellara, Tom Boonen, Tyler Farrar
VeloHuman has just joined the Twitterverse! Follow @VeloHuman for more news and views on the pro peloton.
-Dane Cash
Photo by Vlaam.