Tag: Giacomo Nizzolo

GP Ouest-France 2015 Preview

The WorldTour heads to the Brittany region this weekend for the GP Ouest France. The hilly circuit race is often known by its former name, the GP Plouay, or simply as “Plouay,” the small Breton town where the race starts and finishes (the most recent Recon Ride episode covers this topic, among many others, in depth). Though the event may garner a bit less attention than the concurrently-running Vuelta, it is almost always an exciting race that draws a very impressive startlist, in no small part thanks to its appeal as a stepping stone to Worlds.

The Route

The 229.1km GP Ouest-France takes on the same terrain many times over, via eight laps on a 26.9km circuit and then a single lap on a reduced circuit of 13.9 kilometers.

Each of the long laps opens with a climb of the Côte du Lezot, a little over a kilometer in length and with much of that distance at a gradient in the realm of 6%. From the top, it’s a descent followed by a long gentle ascent up to the Chapelle Sainte-Anne des Bois. After a flat section and then a quick downhill run, the pack will take on the Côte de Ty Marrec, only about a kilometer in length but with a long stretch in the middle nearing 10%.

The final lap of the GP Ouest-France hits both of the major climbs of the longer circuit, with less ground to cover between the two challenges.

The shortened final lap will still look quite familiar, but with much less distance between the two harder climbs. The less challenging trip to the the Chapelle Sainte-Anne des Bois will not be a part of the last lap, which cuts out almost half the distance of the full lap, thereby bringing the ascents of the Côte du Lezot and the Côte de Ty Marrec closer together. From the top of the Ty Marrec it’s a gentle downhill run of about 3km to the finish line.

The Contenders

The GP Ouest-France parcours is deftly balanced in such a way that it’s never quite clear until the final moments of the race whether a late attacker or the sprinters will reign supreme. The course isn’t so hard as to automatically drop the fast finishers from contention, but the Côte de Ty Marrec comes late enough (in a day that is long and challenging enough as it is) to give the aggressive riders a chance at jumping clear of the pack and holding out for victory. In any case, thanks to the flatter finish, a strong sprint is a pretty helpful asset—whether the race comes down to a bunch kick or a small group, anyone hoping to win this race would do well to have some speed.

Greg Van Avermaet has the endurance to come into the finale fresh, the climbing legs and explosiveness to make or join or late move, and the finishing kick to win a reduced sprint. This is a wide open race, but he’s got to be among the top favorites for his versatility. His top-end speed, in particular, has improved over the past few years, to the point where he’s capable of winning a sprint even against specialists on a good day. He’s also got excellent form, having landed 2nd overall in the Eneco Tour. BMC has plenty of other cards to play in this race as well, with talents aplenty to potentially launch constant attacks every time the opportunities present themselves. Philippe Gilbert looks strong right now and is an obvious candidate to go on the move on the climbs, Ben Hermans is on the form of his life and was 7th in this race last year, and Dylan Teuns and Silvan Dillier are even further options for the Belgian squad.

Should a larger group make it to the finish, two riders stand out above the rest as favorites. The first is the rider who won the bunch sprint behind the winning move in last year’s race. Alexander Kristoff can handle a tough course, he’s among the fastest riders on the startlist, and looks to be in good form right now. Giacomo Nizzolo, who was next in line behind Kristoff last year, hasn’t had much luck beating the Norwegian in the past, but this race is a major target for Nizzolo (something he talked about in more detail in the latest Recon Ride) and the potentially messy sprint finale suits him very well. He was runner-up in 2013 to Filippo Pozzato, and has improved his kick since then. Fabio Felline gives Trek a nice alternative.

Etixx-QuickStep, as might be expected for a one-day race, brings a squad full of contenders. Julian Alaphilippe made the Top 10 in 2014 and seems best suited, with strong climbing legs and a fast finish in a reduced kick. Tom Boonen will be the sprinter of choice if this comes down to a bunch gallop, not a bad option to fall back on seeing as he’s on blazing form right now. Tony Martin and Stijn Vandenbergh are others with a shot.

Not to be outdone in the Belgian WorldTour team department, Lotto-Soudal also has options. Tim Wellens, fresh over a convincing Eneco Tour win, may be the most obvious candidate. He certainly has the skillset to thrive here. However, his biggest career successes have come when he has been able to rely on the element of surprise—he’s won the Eneco Tour twice in a row now after showing little in the way of form coming into that race. Whether he can still thrive when all eyes are on him is another matter. If not, Jurgen Roelandts may be the best option: he has actually made the Top 10 in this race three years in a row, and has shown great form this season. Tony Gallopin is another card to play. Jens Debuscherre and Tiesj Benoot are others to watch.

LottoNL-Jumbo doesn’t have quite the team firepower as the aforementioned squads but Sep Vanmarcke is on blazing form and just the sort of rider who might be able to nab a win after a long day of up and down in Plouay. He’s not bad in a sprint, and he’s highly motivated to get something out of a 2015 that has been somewhat disappointing. Moreno Hofland is the main option for the team if the race comes down to a big bunch kick.

Rui Costa was runner-up in 2012 and certainly has the aggressive style to take a win in this race, though he might not be back to 100% after a difficult Tour de France. Diego Ulissi and Davide Cimolai make fine alternatives for Lampre-Merida.

Marcel Kittel certainly deserves a mention as the fastest pure sprinter on the startlist, but it will be extremely difficult for him to make it all the way to the line given his general inability to handle uphill gradients. Sky’s duo of Elia Viviani and Ben Swift, FDJ’s Arnaud Démare, OGE’s Michael Albasini, Movistar’s JJ Lobato, Astana’s Borut Bozic, Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, and IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler will be among the other fast finishers who will hope to hold out for a bunch kick.

Given the parcours and the race history, the list of outsiders who could have a chance with a late attack could encompass the entire roster of riders making the start, but to name just a few: Simon Yates, Ramunas Navardauskas, a strong AG2R tandem of Romain Bardet and Alexis Vuillermoz, Andrea Fedi, Tommy Voeckler, and Arthur Vichot are among the many riders who might be worth keeping an eye on when the peloton approaches the final climb of the Côte de Ty Marrec.

Lastly, VeloHuman’s Under-the-radar contender for the GP Ouest-France: Rasmus Guldhammer of Cult Energy. Guldhammer was 10th in the Vattenfall Cyclassics, showing off his sprinting ability against far more familiar quick men, but he’s also got the climbing chops to survive this parcours. In a reduced field, the former U23 Liège-Bastogne-Liège winner could put up a serious fight for the victory in Plouay.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Greg Van Avermaet
Podium: Alexander Kristoff, Giacomo Nizzolo
Other Top Contenders: Philippe Gilbert, Julian Alaphilippe, Tom Boonen, Jurgen Roelandts, Tim Wellens, Sep Vanmarcke, Arnaud Démare

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and don’t forget to check out the Recon Ride’s GP Ouest-France pre-rance show!

August 29, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: GP Ouest-France 2015 Pre-race Show

Episode 24: GP Ouest-France 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride takes on the GP Ouest-France, the always-exciting circuit race that starts and finishes in the small Breton town of Plouay, with some help from Giacomo Nizzolo.
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One of the more underrated events on the WorldTour calendar, Plouay’s GP Ouest-France usually offers plenty of thrills, with a parcours that makes it hard to predict whether the race will come down to a sprint or a late attack. Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm take a closer look at the route, the favorites, and the storylines ahead of the race, with a bit of extra insight from Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo, runner-up in Plouay in 2013.

Photo by Renault Sport (CC).

August 28, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 21 Preview

Stage 21: Torino › Milano – 185km

With Fabio Aru’s Stage 20 victory closing out the climber-oriented days of the 2015 Giro d’Italia, just one stage remains in the race.

Stage 21 is pan-flat from the start in Turin to the finish in Milan. It’s a profile the sprinters will love. The racing closes out with seven laps of a 5.4km circuit, and things get a bit technical in the second half of each lap, with multiple corners and a roundabout. That means that the final trip around the circuit will likely be hectic. The last kilometer, however, is a straightaway to the finish line, one that will likely see the big-name sprinters still in this race getting up to some very high speeds.

High-speed finishes are great for Sacha Modolo, whose two stage victories so far in this Giro make him the de facto favorite again here. His leadout support has been outstanding so far in the race, and he’s able to finish it off with a powerful finishing kick. All of the other quick men will have their eyes on the men in fuschia in Milan.

Giacomo Nizzolo is now up seven career 2nd-place finishes in Giro d’Italia sprints, but this may represent the best opportunity he’s ever had to finally take a victory. A technical run-in to the line suits his bike-handling skills, and the long straight finish suits his blazing top speed. The perfect flatness of the profile should help hide one of the weaknesses of his never-ending campaign to finally win a Giro stage: a leadout train that has always disappeared late in the race. Without any climbs to wear them out, Trek will have no excuses for leaving Nizzolo alone in this Stage 21 finale.

Elia Viviani started the Giro hot with a stage win, but he’s cooled since then. Still, for pure speed when at his best, Viviani is right up there with the other top names in this race, and can’t be counted out here.

Luka Mezgec won the final stage of last year’s Giro d’Italia, and he’ll benefit from the an always skilled Giant-Alpecin leadout in the tricky final few kilometers of this stage. He should be up there fighting for the overall win. LottoNL-Jumbo’s Moreno Hofland could be up there as well.

Davide Appollonio, Heinrich Haussler, and Kevin Reza are other riders to watch in the probable sprint finish of Stage 21.

VeloHuman Stage 21 Favorites

1. Giacomo Nizzolo | 2. Sacha Modolo | 3. Elia Viviani

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live analysis of Stage 21, and check back soon for plenty more pre-race coverage of the Critérium du Dauphiné, the Tour de Suisse, and, of course, the Tour de France.

-Dane Cash

May 30, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 17 Preview

Stage 17: Tirano › Lugano – 134km

The fact that a climber (like stage winner Mikel Landa) would win Stage 16 was obvious from the profile alone, but the Stage 17 profile could be deceiving. It’s a mostly flat stage, with only a single categorized climb on offer (a very early Cat. 3) and just 134km of racing from start to finish (in Lugano, Switzerland). At first glance, it looks like a great day for the sprinters.

But we’re now into the Giro’s final week, and there will be some tired sprinters in the bunch. What’s more, the peloton just took on a brutal day of climbing, and there are more brutal days of climbing ahead. Combine those facts with the fact that the Giro peloton has already displayed an inability to control the breakaway on what appear to be clear sprinters’ days and you have a recipe for another potential opportunity to for the aggressors to steal one from the quick men.

I see it is a 50-50 proposition on this stage. So many sprinters have left the race that it will be harder for those remaining to do the job of keeping the breakaway controlled, but at the same time, this profile is one that should allow them to do so if they manage to stay organized. In any case, at least in terms of naming favorites, the three top sprinters left in this race are certainly stronger individual favorites than any one rider who trying his luck in the crapshoot that is getting into a breakaway on a stage like this. If it does come down to a sprint, a challenging finale with a few late corners will make this an exciting, if somewhat dangerous, stage finish.

Giacomo Nizzolo nearly came away with the elusive victory he has so long sought in the Giro d’Italia on Stage 13, but Sacha Modolo closed the door on him in the final 100 meters with a strong kick and a not-altogether-noble swerve toward the barriers. Still, Nizzolo looked quite strong there despite a complete lack of leadout support in the final 2km, and he’s shown several times in his career an ability to position himself well in a technical finale, even if he doesn’t always time his subsequent sprint kick successfully. This stage suits him, and he’s strong right now; if the breakers are caught, he has a great chance to finally get that win. Sacha Modolo meanwhile, with the powerful Lampre-Merida leadout to guide him to the line, has his own great chance here, a chance to double up on Giro victories. His teammates did a brilliant job to put him in position to win Stage 13, and they’ll be eager to do so again here. He’s looking strong right now too.

Elia Viviani obviously looked great on Stage 2, but since then he hasn’t been quite as impressive. Still, he should be right up there in terms of top speed with the remaining sprinters left in the race and therefore will be among the favorites in a potential sprint here on Stage 17.

Luka Mezgec has shown flashes of that sort of speed in the past but he’s been a bit lackluster in the sprints in this Giro. Giant-Alpecin is nearing the finish of a Grand Tour in which they’ve achieved very little, however, which could motivate them to perform here before the race goes back into the high mountains where they will have little opportunity to impact the events. Alessandro Petacchi, JJ Lobato, Moreno Hofland, and Davide Appollonio are other options for a potential sprint finish.

If a breakaway goes clear, strong engines Sylvain Chavanel (of Swiss team IAM Cycling) and Silvan Diller (of Switzerland) will be among the top riders to keep an eye on. Philippe Gilbert, Fabio Felline, Giovanni Visconti, and Patrick Gretsch are others on the list of riders who might have the energy to get up the road after a hard day in the mountains, though the list of riders with a chance here if Stage 17 does go to the breakaway is almost endless.

VeloHuman Stage 17 Favorites

1. Giacomo Nizzolo | 2. Sacha Modolo | 3. Elia Viviani

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 17 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 26, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 13 Preview

Stage 13: Montecchio Maggiore › Jesolo – 147km

The bunch finally got its act together and reeled in the breakaway riders on Stage 12 to give Philippe Gilbert a win. Anything other than a second straight bunch finish on Stage 13 would be an embarrassment for the sprinters’ teams.

The stage has nothing remotely resemble a climb on it. In fact, the road goes slightly downhill from start to finish. After letting the early break get clear on a similarly sprinter-oriented Stage 10, the quick men should be able to get organized here and ensure that this stage ends in a bunch kick.

The finish is a bit technical. There are several roundabouts in the final few kilometers, and a right-hand turn with around 500 meters to go, after which comes a straightaway to the line. Positioning and a skilled, dedicated leadout will be critical. The potential for bad weather could throw this finale into chaos.

André Greipel is, at his best, the strongest sprinter on the startlist. That makes him an obvious favorite on the stage. Still, he’s prone to have off days, and Stage 13, with a few tricky challenges to navigate in the finale and the potential for rain, is a fair candidate to be an off day.

Perennial runner-up Giacomo Nizzolo might need some things to go his way to finally take that elusive Giro win, but there are more than a few factors weighing in his favor on Stage 13. Nizzolo has terrific top speed for a 500m straightaway and also has strong bike-handling skills and a dedicated squad of support riders to lead him into this finish. This will be as good a stage as any for Nizzolo, who has looked quick at the intermediate sprints and in the Stage 10 finish behind the breakaway.

Sacha Modolo has the top speed to win against anyone, if he can come into the finale in good position. He’s a top contender in any sprint.

Elia Viviani, like Giacomo Nizzolo, has looked strong at the intermediate sprints in this past few days. He’s also one of the two riders to have won a sprint stage in this Giro. He should be in the mix.

Luka Mezgec, Moreno Hofland, and Juan José Lobato could challenge the top favorites. Tom Boonen, Michael Matthews, Davide Appollonio, and Alessandro Petacchi are other quick men to keep an eye on.

VeloHuman Stage 13 Favorites

1. Giacomo Nizzolo | 2. André Greipel | 3. Sacha Modolo

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 13 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 22, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 10 Preview

Stage 10: Civitanova Marche › Forlì – 200km

The peloton has now had its first official rest day, but Stage 10 should give at least the GC riders another relaxing day in Italy—the profile is not particularly challenging.

The first 100 kilometers of Stage 10 are almost completely flat. The next 30 kilometers offer a few very small climbs, including a single Cat. 4 ascent, but after that, it’s pancake-flat again all the way to the finish line in Forlì. A pair of intermediate sprint points late the day will offer a preview of the probable sprinters’ battle to come. The combination of a sharp right-hander with a little more than a kilometer to go and a sharp left hander inside the final kilometer will probably be the route’s most compelling feature, as it will make for a stressful finale.

This should be a day for a big bunch kick—anything else would be a massive failure by the teams of the quick men. André Greipel is the startlist’s top-name sprinter, and after poorly timing his finishing kick on Stage 2, he got things right and powered to the win on Stage 6 to stake his claim to favorite status in the Giro’s fast finishes. With a strong leadout and a pure focus on just this sort of stage, Greipel is the rider to watch—still, he’s prone to having a bad day here and there, and that means that plenty of other speedsters will have their eyes on the possibility of a win here.

Behind Greipel the picture is a bit less clear, with several riders looking to have similar chances to come away with a stage win here. Sacha Modolo, like Greipel, is extremely fast on his good days but also prone to disappearing on others. He’s one of the few riders here with a good chance of beating even an on-point André Greipel.

Elia Viviani doesn’t have as much leadout support as his rivals but he proved that that doesn’t mean he can’t compete when he won Stage 2. It will be interesting to see if he expends energy trying to nab red jersey points at the intermediate sprints, however—that may take a bit out of him late in the day. The same is true for Giacomo Nizzolo, who has been active at the intermediates so far. In any case, both are top options on this day.

Matteo Pelucchi has been practically anonymous in eight of the race’s nine stages so far . . . but he was runner-up to Greipel on Stage 6, and in a stage without any uphill challenges like Stage 10, he has another great opportunity. Moreno Hofland is another sprinter who has been a runner-up in a flat finish (on Stage 2) and he should be in the mix as well. Luka Mezgec has the always well-marshaled Giant-Alpecin leadout to help him into the final few kilometers, and he’s looked good so far.

Tom Boonen, Michael Matthews, Juan José Lobato, Manuel Belletti, and Nicola Ruffoni are others with a chance on this stage.

VeloHuman Stage 10 Favorites

1. André Greipel | 2. Sacha Modolo | 3. Elia Viviani

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 10 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 19, 2015