Tag: Giovanni Visconti

Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 19 Preview

Stage 19: Medina del Campo › Ávila – 185.8km

The Vuelta’s 19th stage, much like the Vuelta’s 18th stage, looks like a great day for the breakaway artists. The rouleurs will have this one final chance at a Vuelta stage win before a Stage 20 that will favor the strong climbers and then the sprinters’ Stage 21—that should make for an exciting battle.

The profile is a lumpy one, but there are only two categorized climbs on the menu. The first 70km are very slightly uphill. The comes a succession of rollers that lead into the first official climb of the day, the Cat. 3 Alto de Valdavia. Then comes a long stretch of mostly downhill roads with a few little climbs along the way, running in to a short flat section from kilometer 140 to kilometer 150. From there, the road angles upward again for several kilometers, with a stretch of uncategorized climbing and then the Cat. 2 Alto de la Paramera, 8.7km at 4.5%. It’s not the hardest climb in the world but the uncategorized run-in will make it significantly more challenging, and the length is likely to rule out most of the sprinters on this stage.

After the KOM summit there are 19 mostly kilometers to the finish. It’s downhill most of the way, before the road angles upward in the last 2.5km, with a stretch of roughly 6% in the beginning before the gradients get a bit lower in the final km.

The long climb that comes relatively close to the finish will probably be too much for the sprinters, but not hard enough to spur all that much GC excitement in the leadup. That makes this an excellent day for the breakaway specialists, which of course means that there are no real favorites for Stage 19, though there are a few candidates for breakaway success whose chances look to be particularly strong.

After two and a half weeks of riding as a loyal Movistar lieutenant, Giovanni Visconti finally showed some interest in getting up the road on Stage 18, but he missed the main move and then found the task of bridging to the group to be too much. With that motivation in mind, he has to be among the top contenders for Stage 19. He can climb with the GC favorites on a good day, and also has a nice sprint, particularly in a hilly finale, making him dangerous here. José Joaquín Rojas made the breakaway on Stage 18, and if he has recovered well enough he’s a candidate from the break too.

Caja Rural’s José Goncalves couldn’t quite bridge to the leaders in the waning moments of Stage 18, but he’ll have another chance here if he’s got some energy left in the tank. This finish suits him perfectly. Pello Bilbao is another strong option for Caja Rural.

Julien Simon tends to fly under the radar, putting in Top 10s here and there but rarely nabbing a big win, but this stage suits him down to the ground. He can survive a climb, and he’s a very fast finisher, especially with a slight gradient at the line.

Alessandro De Marchi and Darwin Atapuma would prefer a more difficult parcours but both are strong in a breakaway scenario. The same is true for Cyril Gautier and Romain Sicard, who are running out of chances to deliver a Vuelta a España win for Europcar after several near misses.

Rubén Plaza and Kristijan Durasek are both excellent options for Lampre. Plaza won a not-dissimilar stage in the Tour this year.

Luis León Sánchez, Adam Hansen, Daryl Impey, Simon Gerrans, and Stephen Cummings are others to watch out for as potential candidates for long-range success on Stage 19.

If this does come down to the pack, a bunch sprint seems unlikely. John Degenkolb is the clear favorite in that scenario, but it’s more probable that the likes of Alejandro Valverde and Daniel Moreno (along with the faster finishers mentioned above who don’t make it into the break) battle it out for the stage from a more select group.

VeloHuman Stage 19 Favorites

1. Giovanni Visconti | 2. José Goncalvez | 3. Julien Simon

Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 19.

September 11, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 18 Preview

Stage 18: Melide › Verbania – 170km

Sacha Modolo and the sprinters had their day on Stage 17, but now it’s back to the climber-friendly profiles. Stage 18 starts out flat, with stretch of 120 kilometers without any categorized ascending, but then the road kicks upward in the form of the vicious Monte Ologno climb, 10.4km at a very steep 9% average gradient. It’s followed by a bit of up and down before a long, fast descent into a flat final 5km.

The only categorized climb on the day is a tough one that should see GC action, but with two very hard mountain days to come, the GC types may allow the breakaway riders some leeway on this stage. And even if the early break is caught on the slopes of the climb, Tinkoff-Saxo and Astana may allow fringe overall contenders to get some space. In any case, the rider who wins this stage will need to have strong climbing skills, strong descending skills, and, probably, a decent finishing kick.

Several big-name all-rounders sitting outside the real GC contender conversation will be among the favorites, given the likelihood that this stage goes to a non-pink-jersey threat with an aggressive streak. Giovanni Visconti has all the necessary tools to thrive on this parcours, and he’s far enough back on the overall leaderboard that he may be able to ride ahead unchecked. He has been strong so far in this race. Teammate Beñat Intxausti may look to get up the road as well with the KOM points on offer at the top of the climb, and if he’s up there with enough of a gap, he might see if he can stretch an advantage to the finish line.

Carlos Betancur will be watching Intxausti closely. The Colombian still has a chance at the mountains classification, and this stage suits him very well given his explosive finishing kick. Either from the morning break, from a late move, or even from a reduced bunch coming to the line together, Betancur will be dangerous on Stage 18.

Ryder Hesjedal has been very active so far in the race, and despite being 10th overall now, he’s still no threat to the pink jersey and may be allowed to go up the road. Few of the other likely breakaway contenders can match him on this climb.

Ilnur Zakarin, Darwin Atapuma, Franco Pellizotti, Esteban Chaves, Mikel Nieve, Luis Leon Sanchez, and Stefano Pirazzi are others who could try to get up the road and win Stage 18 with a long-range move.

Steven Kruijswijk was a breakaway fixture early on in this race, but he’s managed to work his way into the GC picture and will probably be focused more on consolidating his gains there than trying to force his way up the road here. He’s still a threat if given space on the climb.

The Monte Ologno is difficult enough that we could see Alberto Contador and Mikel Landa and teammate Fabio Aru battling again, both for GC positions and potentially even for the stage win. If none of them is able to get separation, a very strong Yuri Trofimov might be able to slip away. Damiano Caruso and Rigoberto Urán will be among the top options to take the stage if it comes down to a sprint in a reduced bunch.

VeloHuman Stage 18 Favorites

1. Giovanni Visconti | 2. Carlos Betancur | 3. Mikel Landa

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 18 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 27, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 16 Preview

Stage 16: Pinzolo › Aprica – 177km

The Giro peloton took a rest day after a challenging Stage 15 won by Mikel Landa, but things will get hectic again immediately on Stage 16. The riders will take on the first of five categorized climbs right from the startline. There is practically not a single meter of flat on this stage. After the opening Cat. 2, the riders will take on a fast descent and then another Cat. 2, and then a very long descent into a Cat. 3, roughly the midpoint of the stage. From there it’s another descent into the foot of the brutal Cat. 1 Passo del Mortirolo climb. 11.8 km at a 10.9% average gradient, it’s an extremely steep road to the top, one that will likely see the stronger riders putting on the pressure and blowing the peloton to pieces.

Over the top of the Mortirolo, the riders will take on another long descent into the foot of a Cat. 3 climb to the finish line. It’s long at 14km but not particularly steep with a 3.5% average gradient.

Five categorized ascents on the parcours will make Stage 16 a major target for the Giro’s blue jersey hopefuls. The fact that the climbing starts right away will benefit the uphill specialists trying to get up the road. With the constant up and down likely to hinder any organized chase efforts, this will be a great opportunity for the breakaway riders, though regardless of who is in the lead group, it should provide an opportunity for the GC riders to battle it out as well.

The Mortirolo will offer opportunities to attack but it’s still a very long way to go from the top. With the low gradient on the final climb, a small group could come to the line together, whether it’s a small group of breakaway riders or a small group of survivors from the pack. Carlos Betancur has plenty of incentive to get into the breakaway on this stage in pursuit of KOM Points, and he’s shown an ability to get up the road so far in this race. He has a very fast finish, and if he’s in the lead group at the end of the day, he’ll be very dangerous on this stage.

Beñat Intxausti will of course be looking to get into the breakaway in defense of his KOM jersey. He’s not as fast at the line as others, but he’s got a powerful engine and might be able to ride others off his wheel in pursuit of this stage win. Movistar teammate Giovanni Visconti, on the other hand, does have a bit of pop for a fast finish, and could be in the mix if he’s allowed up the road (nearly 10 minutes down on GC), as might Igor Anton and Ion Izagirre.

Ryder Hesjedal should like the look of the profile and his chances from the breakaway. If he can get up the road, he’ll have a nice chance at victory in Stage 16.

Stefano Pirazzi, Steven Kruijswijk, Esteban Chaves, Ilnur Zakarin, Franco Pellizotti, Sebastien Reichenbach, Mikel Nieve, Vasil Kiryienka, Darwin Atapuma, Jan Polanc, and Damiano Cunego are others on the list of strong candidates for long-range success here.

If this comes down to a select group of GC favorites instead of the long-range attackers, this could come down to the fastest finishers still surviving among the all-rounders. Damiano Caruso packs a bit of punch, as does Fabio Aru, who would probably like to pick up more stage wins in the race even if he can’t beat Alberto Contador for the pink jersey. Caruso will have the added benefit of probably getting some leeway to go up the road late in the race if he sees an opportunity, as he’s far enough out of GC contention to not threaten Contador’s pink jersey. Speaking of Contador, he obviously can’t be counted out on a stage with a climb as challenging as the Mortirolo, even if it does come so far from the finish.

VeloHuman Stage 16 Favorites

1. Carlos Betancur | 2. Giovanni Visconti | 3. Fabio Aru

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 16 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 25, 2015