Tag: Grand Tour

Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 13 Preview

Stage 13: Palmanova › Cividale del Friuli › 170km

Stage 13 is a tough one, a day that should shake up the GC a bit even if the finale is flat. The double pairing of Cat. 1 and Cat. 2 climbs probably won’t win anyone the Giro, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see major selection going over the last two ascents.

With two critically important, challenging stages to follow Stage 13, there is a chance the GC team will keep the powder dry Friday, which would give the breakaway a real shot on this profile. I’d say it’s about 50/50, but if the stage does come down to the GC contenders, I see one rider as the clear favorite: Alejandro Valverde. The versatile Spaniard should be in the mix at the head of affairs in the finale, getting into the wheels of his rivals, and if he’s in the lead group battling for the stage win, it’s hard to see anyone beating him in a sprint.

Vincenzo Nibali, with his excellent descending skills, and Rigoberto Urán, surprisingly quick in a flat finish, are other GC names to watch.

Diego Ulissi, Tim Wellens, and Alessandro De Marchi headline the list of riders whose options for victory include a long-range move. We haven’t seen that much from De Marchi yet, but in peak form I like him better for this stage than even Ulissi or Wellens.

Damiano Cunego, Stefano Pirazzi, Carlos Betancur, and perhaps even Stage 10 winner Giulio Ciccone are others on the list of candidates for long-distance success.

VeloHuman Stage 13 Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Tim Wellens | 3. Diego Ulissi

May 20, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 12 Preview

Stage 12: Noale › Bibione – 182km

The Giro’s 12th stage is one for the sprinters. The road route is pancake-flat from start to finish, and with some tough stages to come, the sprinters’ teams should be fully motivated to keep things together for a bunch kick.

The day’s most interesting feature is the finale. Stage 12 finishes with two laps of an 8-kilometer circuit, with plenty of corners to navigate. The final 3 kilometers include multiple 90-degree turns and a few other less extreme corners. Positioning will be critical in Bibione.

With Marcel Kittel out of the race, André Greipel has established himself as the man to beat in the bunch kicks, so he’s absolutely a favorite for Stage 12. However, Greipel can sometimes be timid in technical situations. This finale could see the Gorilla drop back a bit, and with the sharp corners running every few hundred meters all the way to the finish line, there won’t be anywhere to make up lost ground.

Should that happen, Giacomo Nizzolo could be the one to capitalize. He may not win that many races, but positioning in the final 300 meters is rarely the problem. This is just the sort of day for the Italian.

Caleb Ewan isn’t necessarily known for his ability to handle tricky finishes, but his top-end speed makes him an obvious candidate for success on the stage. Familiar sprinting names like Sacha Modolo and Arnaud Démare are others to watch, while Moreno Hofland and Matteo Trentin are decent outsiders.

VeloHuman Stage 12 Favorites

1. Giacomo Nizzolo | 2. André Greipel | 3. Caleb Ewan

May 19, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 11 Preview

Stage 11: Modena › Asolo – 227km

I hate to say it, but Stage 11 of the 2016 Giro d’Italia will likely be very boring for the first 200 kilometers. Fortunately, the finale looks quite interesting. After the peloton traverses pancake-flat roads for more than four hours, they’ll hit a lumpy final 30km that could spring attacks.

The short but steep Cat. 4 crested at kilometer 207, just under 3km at almost 8%, will almost certainly inspire a few aggressors. It will also put pressure on the sprinters. From the top it’s a steep descent into a few more rollers, with a key uncategorized climb of around 1.5km at 6% inside the final 5km. Said climb includes a bit of cobblestones, and it is followed by a descent. The road only flattens out for the final kilometer, which won’t really give anyone who gets dropped on the uphill time to get back into position.

The early breakaway has a shot at this stage if the sprinters teams don’t get organized—I’d expect the day’s move to get a big gap early on in the day. However, if the bunch decides to chase, it shouldn’t be too hard to close down the gap. My first inclination is that this stage will end in a reduced sprint.

Sonny Cobrelli is a great candidate for Stage 11, either from the break or the bunch, given his impressive finishing kick and his ability to handle short climbs. If he’s in the group fighting it out for the win at the end of the day, I expect a lot from the Italian.

The same is true of Diego Ulissi. He prefers uphill sprints, but he’s quite speedy even in a flat finish like this one. Tim Wellens is another rider to watch with these late climbs, whether he gets in the early move or decides to stick with the pack.

André Greipel can’t be counted out for a potential sprint finish. He’s very strong right now, and he has improved a great deal on tougher profiles in recent years. Arnaud Démare may be a better pick for the stage, however, as he seems a bit more likely to stay well-positioned over the late climbs. The same could be said for Giacomo Nizzolo.

To me, the biggest threat for a sprint outside of Colbrelli is Alejandro Valverde. It’ll be touch and go whether the purer sprinters can survive the stage, but Valverde should be right there in the mix if it comes down to the peloton. Matteo Trentin, Enrico Battaglin, Kristian Sbaragli are others to watch on Stage 11.

VeloHuman Stage 11 Favorites

1. Sonny Colbrelli | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. André Greipel

May 18, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 10 Preview

Stage 10: Campi Bisenzio › Sestola – 219km

The Giro’s 10th stage takes the peloton 219 kilometers on undulating roads from Tuscany into Emilia-Romagna. With a Cat. 1 climb 16 kilometers from the line and a Cat. 3 uphill finish, it’s definitely going to open up a few gaps on the general classification, with the punchy types having a leg in the finale.

As far as the battle for the stage win, however, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a long-range (and still punchy) attacker take this prize, whether it’s a member of the early breakaway or someone jumping clear towards the end of the day.

Tim Wellens, currently leading the King of the Mountains competition, fits the bill. He already has one stage victory in this Giro and this would be a great opportunity for another.

Diego Ulissi is another name that stands out as a candidate to win either from the main breakaway, with a late attack, or even in a reduced uphill sprint. Versatility comes in handy on stage like this.

Alessandro De Marchi, Damiano Cunego, Giovanni Visconti, and Stefano Pirazzi are other candidates for long-distance success in Stage 10.

If the GC contenders battle it out at the finish, Alejandro Valverde will be the clear favorite. This is just the sort of finish that he loves.

Rigoberto Urán may have lost serious ground in the Stage 9 TT, but I wouldn’t underestimate him here. He’s quick to the line and could get some breathing room if he decides to jump into a late move.

The stage probably isn’t difficult enough for Mikel Landa, Vincenzo Nibali, or Esteban Chaves to be in their element but don’t count them out either. 10 days into the Giro, no one rider has really establish himself as the man to beat in this race, so it’s about time someone gets aggressive in the battle for the pink jersey.

VeloHuman Stage 10 Favorites

1. Tim Wellens | 2. Diego Ulissi | 3. Alejandro Valverde

May 17, 2016
The Recon Ride Podcast: Giro d’Italia 2016, Part II

Episode 43: Giro d’Italia 2016 Show, Part II

The Giro d’Italia gets harder in its second week, with several mountains stages and a hilly time trial on tap. The Recon Ride previews the action to come.

[powerpress]

Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano take stock of what’s gone down so far at the 2016 Giro d’Italia, and make a few predictions about the next several stages of racing in Italy, which should see the GC picture start to heat up.

Photo by Sean Rowe (CC).

May 16, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9: Radda in Chianti › Greve in Chianti – 40.5km (ITT)

The Giro’s ninth stage is a critical 40.5-kilometer individual time trial with a very intriguing profile. There is a significant net altitude loss on the day, meaning that while there is some climbing to do, the heavier TT specialists should really enjoy this one.

The course has a few technical sections along the way. The main challenge comes in the final third of the stage as the riders take on a climb of about 5km at a little under 4%. From the top, it’s downhill almost all the way to the line.

A few days ago, Tom Dumoulin would have been my heavy favorite for this stage, given the form he showed early in the Giro. I’d still name him as my top favorite, but his less-than-stellar showing on Stage 8 has me a bit concerned that maybe he’s not feeling 100% at the moment. Still, this time trial suits him well and he’s elite against the clock.

Fabian Cancellara is the other top TT specialist on the startlist, and if he weren’t recovering from illness he’d be a sure thing to contend for the stage win. As it stands, he’s definitely still a contender, but again, it’s hard to say just how well he’ll do. The descents do suit him.

Bob Jungels can run hot and cold but when he’s good, he’s good. He could be in the mix. Ilnur Zakarin should be in contention as well. He looks very strong right now. Rigoberto Urán is the other GC contender that I see having a good shot here. He’s been a bit quiet so far in this race, but he has to know that Stage 9 is his big chance to open up a gap to his pink jersey rivals.

Stefan Küng, Vincenzo Nibali, Alejandro Valverde, Primoz Roglic, Steven Kruijswijk, and Andrey Amador are others to watch in the ITT.

VeloHuman Stage 9 Favorites

1. Tom Dumoulin | 2. Fabian Cancellara | 3. Ilnur Zakarin

May 15, 2016